Post by Grubs - Philly on Sept 20, 2019 17:21:43 GMT -5
2022 NL West Preview
The perennially competitive left coast edition of the Senior Circuit promises more of the same this year, as all five franchises worked in the offseason to build toward a division title. As in the past, the three frontrunners are Arizona, Colorado and Los Angeles.
Despite competitive depth, NL West clubs won just a single game past the Wildcard round. Maybe because they were exhausted from playing one another? The Dodgers needed an extra game to fend off a challenge from a revamped Arizona team that vaulted into the NLDS before getting swept by eventual PBA champ Washington. The Dodgers themselves could only notch one win against Chicago in the Division Series. Colorado came up short despite hanging tough for a good chunk of the season. San Diego and San Francisco continued rebuilding, showcasing young talent and hope to condense the standings in 2022.
Los Angeles Dodgers (94-69, Division Champs, lost to Chicago in NLDS)
The Dodgers fought to a 1-0 victory in game 163 in pursuit of their fourth consecutive NL West title. It’s LA’s eighth first-place finish in the last nine years. The Dodgers had losing records against both Arizona (8-11) and Colorado (9-10), though, as the team’s offense faltered even as pitching stepped up from 2020. That’s hard to believe, given the MVP-caliber performance of Nomar Mazara (.302/.409/.640) and three other players who hit more than 30 home runs.
Offseason
IN: SP Corey Kluber $26M avg./5 years, age 36), 2B Tetsuto Yamada ($14M avg./5 years, age 30)
OUT: No one of note
The Dodgers added much more WAR in the offseason than they did last year. With 6.5 WAR added, they had the fourth largest haul in the PBA this past winter. The front office went in big for Corey Kluber, who might retire before his 5-year, $130 million contract is complete. At age 30, Japanese transplant Tetsuto Yamada has so many awards from his career in Japan that his player page looks like a dictator’s military uniform. At $14 million a year, he’ll be a bargain if he delivers.
On the Farm: The Dodgers have a middle-of-the-road farm system that skews young, with the top two prospects still in the international complex. Catcher Rafael Marchan looks ready for the majors and could provide one of the league’s most solid tandems with Keibert Ruiz. Pitcher Grayson Rodriguez is close at AA.
Best Case: Kluber is the ace the Dodgers know he can be, the table setters step up and the team’s offense rebounds, vaulting the Dodgers to the NLCS, if not the World Series.
Worst Case: Kluber lands with a thud, the team hits more empty home runs and a midseason selloff starts a quick rebuild.
Key Questions: There’s no doubt the division is getting tighter. Are you happy with the pieces you have in place, or will you be on the hunt up to the trade deadline? Logan Allen’s stamina has faded. Can you work with him slotted in as your number five starter, or would you consider starting Mike Caldwell, who only has two pitches, but they’re elite ones?
Arizona Diamondbacks (93-70, 1 GB, Wildcard champs, lost to Washington in NLDS)
Former GM Ben Nuzzo built a contender before pulling a Phil Jackson on Arizona and leaving Arlo Zimmerman to craft a new legacy. Despite dropping the chance for a division title in game 163, the Diamondbacks had a winning record (11-8) against the rival Dodgers and played Colorado almost even (9-10). This is a young team, with LF Ryan Johnson and SS Yunior Severino having bust-out rookie years. Greg Allen got hit by a pitch a whopping 31 times last year.
Offseason
IN: SP Chris Archer, C Garrett Stubbs (Trade HOU), C Jin-De Jhang (Trade PIT)
OUT: SP Kevin Gausman, C Oscar Hernandez, RP Glen Perkins, LF Christian Yelich (Trade HOU)
With Joey Gallo on the block despite the league’s highest ISO (.348) last year, it seems like Arizona might be hunting for value. That doesn’t equal a selloff, though, as Archer, Stubbs and Jhang add $16M to the payroll. This looks like a team trying to get better, not just cheaper.
On the Farm: The Diamondbacks have the PBA’s 5th best farm system, according to the league’s scouting association. Though he had no at bats above AA, 3B Juan “Doorbell” Gestoso raked for Venezuela in the World Classic of Baseball. He’s only 20, but could be ready for the majors if he’s needed for a late-season push. Same with CF Quentin Holmes, who has a shot at making the PBA squad.
Best Case: Archer and a resurgent Brandon Finnegan deliver huge value, Gonzales looks more like his 2021 self than 2020, Stubbs and Jhang provide stability behind the dish and Arizona topples LA from its spot atop the division.
Worst Case: Pitching doesn’t round out for the D’backs, who give the rest of the division fits offensively, but slip to third or fourth.
Key Questions: Is Gallo as good as out the door? Andy Ibanez had a solid season last year. Is he really a man without a spot in the infield? Doorbell Gestoso could soon be at least as good as Tae-hoon Do at third. Are you waiting out the Super 2 clock or will you bring him up if you fall behind LA early?
Colorado Rockies (86-76, 7.5 GB)
The Rockies kept it tight last year, buoyed by superstars David Dahl (.349/.385/.621) and Nolan Arenado (.286/.342/.603), who delivered a collective 13 WAR. Jordan Montgomery came out of nowhere to post a 2.98 ERA and a 4.3 WAR season. No other starter had an ERA below 4, though a low-4.00’s ERA is more useful in the PBA than one might think.
Offseason
IN: LF Mitch Haniger
OUT: SP Jeff Samardzija, SP Peter Lambert, SP Drew Pomeranz
The Rockies weren’t tremendously active this offseason. The team lost the league’s fourth-most WAR (8.5) but some of this feels like banking on established players while hoping for progression from young guys.
On the Farm: Well, life on the farm is kinda laid back for this Denver squad. Pitcher Eric Pardinho is in AAA this year trying to develop breaking pitches that will make him major league-ready. Alec Sanchez is there, too, waiting to develop into a big league second baseman. They’re not blue-chip prospects, but they’re close and will be useful.
Best Case: Dahl and Arenado continue to rake. Charlie Blackmon, Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story and Jazz Chisholm duplicate last year’s performance. Mitch Haniger reverts to his 2020 self. Michael Fulmer and Riley Pint lock it down. This team could win the division and it should surprise no one if it happens.
Worst Case: The Rockies’ veterans finally slow down, pitching doesn’t come around, and the team slips to fourth.
Key Questions: What’s more important to you in Pardinho’s development, the two breaking pitches or maxing out control? It’s on the low side for a starter, would you plant him in the bullpen instead? Trevor Story showed so much power last year. Is it a straight righty-lefty platoon for DH, or do you find a way to get him consistent at bats?
San Diego Padres (79-83, 14.5 GB)
The Padres got the season they were looking for from Brandon Belt. He’ll stick around, but Jake Lamb is out the door. Luis Urias continued to deliver average and on-base ability. Speedster LF Allen Cordoba took a turn for the worse, posting a .323 OBP. He nabbed more than 50 bases for the second time, however. Zach Davies had a terrific year, but he’s out the door, too, thanks to free agency and likely restrictive ownership demands.
Offseason
IN: CF Kevin Kiermaier (trade TB), 1B Kyle Schwarber, RF Steven Duggar (trade KC)
OUT: 3B Jake Lamb (trade KC), CF Manny Margot (trade KC), SP Zach Davies
The continuing project that is the San Diego Padres seems to be making GM Ryan Davis a little impatient. He reshuffled a team that finished just two wins shy of .500, adding power by trading for Kiermaier and signing Schwarber, as well as a leadoff guy with an eye in Steven Duggar. Gone are Jake Lamb and Margot, two similar players who didn’t quite have the right skill sets for the Friars.
On the Farm: The Padres still have a top 10 farm system. SS Royce Lewis is highly rated, but still working on his plate approach. He’s hit near .300 at every stop in the minors, but he hardly ever walks and still strikes out too much. He’s at AAA now, but it may soon be time to ask him to sink or swim in the PBA. Luis Almanzar is nipping at his heels and there’s not much age separating the pair. At 22 years old, SP Jeff Henry is probably better than his A- league level, but he needs a third pitch to start, otherwise he could turn into a handsome bullpen piece.
Best Case: Schwarber rebounds to his monster 2020 form, Duggar gets on base, the young pitching continues to develop, and rookie RF Alejandro Toral bursts on the scene. Anderson Espinoza ascends to ace status, Chris Paddack bumps it up and the Padres strong pitching helps them grab third, with an eye toward ruining someone’s season in September. Also, team owner Ron Fowler dies.
Worst Case: San Diego’s offense can’t hold it together and the team drops a few games further under .500. Ryan Davis is found guilty of Fowler's murder.
Key Questions: Despite some frustrating years waiting for development, this team doesn’t feel like it was ever in tear-down status. If you don’t get what you want by June, would you consider it? Are you pleased with Luis Ordaz’s performance as hitting coach? Also in the front office, can you afford to jettison A.J. Preller and find someone who can foster your young talent a little better?
San Francisco Giants (73-89, 20.5 GB)
It’s hard to know what to make of the Giants, but it’s clear GM Dave Twibell wants to make something of them. San Francisco brought in an incredible 37 new faces in the offseason and said goodbye to 29 players (including some of the 37). The Giants’ offense scraped together just 600 runs last year, with a team OPS 90 points below the league average. No player knocked in more than 57 runs and the returning player with the highest OBP is 3B Christian Arroyo at .317. Arroyo and 2B Shane Benes are the only two returning position players with a positive WAR. Team pitching was a different story, with Rookie of the Year Cobi Johnson bursting onto the scene and a step-up sophomore campaign from Melvin Adon. Young closer Trevor Rogers showed promise and got unlucky with a FIP far below his ERA.
Offseason
IN: SP Anthony DeSclafani, C Oscar Hernandez, LF Yoenis Cespedes, SP Matt Andriese, SP Brandon Waddell (Trade TB), 1B Gavin Cecchini
OUT: SP Nick Kingham (Trade TB), RF Steven Duggar (Trade KC), C Buster Posey (Trade TB)
League scouts say the Giants added 6.1 WAR in the offseason, and we’ll trust them because the math. It hurts. DeSclafani, Andriese and Waddell round out the Giants’ rotation. Newcomer Gavin Cecchini gets his chance to compete at first after being picked up on a minor league contract. Hernandez continues the fine NL West tradition of poaching successful guys from another division team.
On the Farm: San Francisco’s affiliates have a ton of potential, but it hasn’t yet been realized. The blue-chippers are at low levels. SP Braxton Garrett is a point or two of both stuff and control from being in the big leagues. A show-me changeup will probably keep him from being a strong starter, but he could add multi-inning bullpen depth.
Best Case: The new-look Giants gel into an upstart squad and approach .500. Shane Benes bounces back and some of the new pitching arrivals return value.
Worst Case: Twibell inadvertently posts an Opening Day lineup with at least two players who are no longer on the team, forfeiting the game. The Giants go on to win just 60 games.
Key Questions: This is a fascinating squad with a ton of questions. Tell us about the rebuild strategy. In the front office, you’ve sunk $2 million a year into inexperienced assistant GM Sean Jarrett. Is he delivering for you? You’ve also shelled out for Jorge Navarro as scout, though he comes highly recommended. What do you want him to focus on? On the field, Melvin Adon was your second-best starter last year, but you’ve DFA’d him. What didn’t you trust? Is there anything you can do to unlock Shane Benes’ potential?
Predictions
Los Angeles wins a fifth-straight division title, coming in at 92-70 with 5 games on Arizona and Colorado, who both finish at 87-75. San Diego finds .500 and the Giants finish 69-93. Luis Urias claims the batting title; Dahl, Arenado and Mazara all make another run at MVP; Brandon Finnegan finishes with a 3.72 ERA in a successful comeback; Shane Benes flirts with .300 and Greg Allen becomes the inaugural member of the 40/40 club, stealing 40 bases and getting hit by a pitch 40 times.
The perennially competitive left coast edition of the Senior Circuit promises more of the same this year, as all five franchises worked in the offseason to build toward a division title. As in the past, the three frontrunners are Arizona, Colorado and Los Angeles.
Despite competitive depth, NL West clubs won just a single game past the Wildcard round. Maybe because they were exhausted from playing one another? The Dodgers needed an extra game to fend off a challenge from a revamped Arizona team that vaulted into the NLDS before getting swept by eventual PBA champ Washington. The Dodgers themselves could only notch one win against Chicago in the Division Series. Colorado came up short despite hanging tough for a good chunk of the season. San Diego and San Francisco continued rebuilding, showcasing young talent and hope to condense the standings in 2022.
Los Angeles Dodgers (94-69, Division Champs, lost to Chicago in NLDS)
The Dodgers fought to a 1-0 victory in game 163 in pursuit of their fourth consecutive NL West title. It’s LA’s eighth first-place finish in the last nine years. The Dodgers had losing records against both Arizona (8-11) and Colorado (9-10), though, as the team’s offense faltered even as pitching stepped up from 2020. That’s hard to believe, given the MVP-caliber performance of Nomar Mazara (.302/.409/.640) and three other players who hit more than 30 home runs.
Offseason
IN: SP Corey Kluber $26M avg./5 years, age 36), 2B Tetsuto Yamada ($14M avg./5 years, age 30)
OUT: No one of note
The Dodgers added much more WAR in the offseason than they did last year. With 6.5 WAR added, they had the fourth largest haul in the PBA this past winter. The front office went in big for Corey Kluber, who might retire before his 5-year, $130 million contract is complete. At age 30, Japanese transplant Tetsuto Yamada has so many awards from his career in Japan that his player page looks like a dictator’s military uniform. At $14 million a year, he’ll be a bargain if he delivers.
On the Farm: The Dodgers have a middle-of-the-road farm system that skews young, with the top two prospects still in the international complex. Catcher Rafael Marchan looks ready for the majors and could provide one of the league’s most solid tandems with Keibert Ruiz. Pitcher Grayson Rodriguez is close at AA.
Best Case: Kluber is the ace the Dodgers know he can be, the table setters step up and the team’s offense rebounds, vaulting the Dodgers to the NLCS, if not the World Series.
Worst Case: Kluber lands with a thud, the team hits more empty home runs and a midseason selloff starts a quick rebuild.
Key Questions: There’s no doubt the division is getting tighter. Are you happy with the pieces you have in place, or will you be on the hunt up to the trade deadline? Logan Allen’s stamina has faded. Can you work with him slotted in as your number five starter, or would you consider starting Mike Caldwell, who only has two pitches, but they’re elite ones?
Arizona Diamondbacks (93-70, 1 GB, Wildcard champs, lost to Washington in NLDS)
Former GM Ben Nuzzo built a contender before pulling a Phil Jackson on Arizona and leaving Arlo Zimmerman to craft a new legacy. Despite dropping the chance for a division title in game 163, the Diamondbacks had a winning record (11-8) against the rival Dodgers and played Colorado almost even (9-10). This is a young team, with LF Ryan Johnson and SS Yunior Severino having bust-out rookie years. Greg Allen got hit by a pitch a whopping 31 times last year.
Offseason
IN: SP Chris Archer, C Garrett Stubbs (Trade HOU), C Jin-De Jhang (Trade PIT)
OUT: SP Kevin Gausman, C Oscar Hernandez, RP Glen Perkins, LF Christian Yelich (Trade HOU)
With Joey Gallo on the block despite the league’s highest ISO (.348) last year, it seems like Arizona might be hunting for value. That doesn’t equal a selloff, though, as Archer, Stubbs and Jhang add $16M to the payroll. This looks like a team trying to get better, not just cheaper.
On the Farm: The Diamondbacks have the PBA’s 5th best farm system, according to the league’s scouting association. Though he had no at bats above AA, 3B Juan “Doorbell” Gestoso raked for Venezuela in the World Classic of Baseball. He’s only 20, but could be ready for the majors if he’s needed for a late-season push. Same with CF Quentin Holmes, who has a shot at making the PBA squad.
Best Case: Archer and a resurgent Brandon Finnegan deliver huge value, Gonzales looks more like his 2021 self than 2020, Stubbs and Jhang provide stability behind the dish and Arizona topples LA from its spot atop the division.
Worst Case: Pitching doesn’t round out for the D’backs, who give the rest of the division fits offensively, but slip to third or fourth.
Key Questions: Is Gallo as good as out the door? Andy Ibanez had a solid season last year. Is he really a man without a spot in the infield? Doorbell Gestoso could soon be at least as good as Tae-hoon Do at third. Are you waiting out the Super 2 clock or will you bring him up if you fall behind LA early?
Colorado Rockies (86-76, 7.5 GB)
The Rockies kept it tight last year, buoyed by superstars David Dahl (.349/.385/.621) and Nolan Arenado (.286/.342/.603), who delivered a collective 13 WAR. Jordan Montgomery came out of nowhere to post a 2.98 ERA and a 4.3 WAR season. No other starter had an ERA below 4, though a low-4.00’s ERA is more useful in the PBA than one might think.
Offseason
IN: LF Mitch Haniger
OUT: SP Jeff Samardzija, SP Peter Lambert, SP Drew Pomeranz
The Rockies weren’t tremendously active this offseason. The team lost the league’s fourth-most WAR (8.5) but some of this feels like banking on established players while hoping for progression from young guys.
On the Farm: Well, life on the farm is kinda laid back for this Denver squad. Pitcher Eric Pardinho is in AAA this year trying to develop breaking pitches that will make him major league-ready. Alec Sanchez is there, too, waiting to develop into a big league second baseman. They’re not blue-chip prospects, but they’re close and will be useful.
Best Case: Dahl and Arenado continue to rake. Charlie Blackmon, Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story and Jazz Chisholm duplicate last year’s performance. Mitch Haniger reverts to his 2020 self. Michael Fulmer and Riley Pint lock it down. This team could win the division and it should surprise no one if it happens.
Worst Case: The Rockies’ veterans finally slow down, pitching doesn’t come around, and the team slips to fourth.
Key Questions: What’s more important to you in Pardinho’s development, the two breaking pitches or maxing out control? It’s on the low side for a starter, would you plant him in the bullpen instead? Trevor Story showed so much power last year. Is it a straight righty-lefty platoon for DH, or do you find a way to get him consistent at bats?
San Diego Padres (79-83, 14.5 GB)
The Padres got the season they were looking for from Brandon Belt. He’ll stick around, but Jake Lamb is out the door. Luis Urias continued to deliver average and on-base ability. Speedster LF Allen Cordoba took a turn for the worse, posting a .323 OBP. He nabbed more than 50 bases for the second time, however. Zach Davies had a terrific year, but he’s out the door, too, thanks to free agency and likely restrictive ownership demands.
Offseason
IN: CF Kevin Kiermaier (trade TB), 1B Kyle Schwarber, RF Steven Duggar (trade KC)
OUT: 3B Jake Lamb (trade KC), CF Manny Margot (trade KC), SP Zach Davies
The continuing project that is the San Diego Padres seems to be making GM Ryan Davis a little impatient. He reshuffled a team that finished just two wins shy of .500, adding power by trading for Kiermaier and signing Schwarber, as well as a leadoff guy with an eye in Steven Duggar. Gone are Jake Lamb and Margot, two similar players who didn’t quite have the right skill sets for the Friars.
On the Farm: The Padres still have a top 10 farm system. SS Royce Lewis is highly rated, but still working on his plate approach. He’s hit near .300 at every stop in the minors, but he hardly ever walks and still strikes out too much. He’s at AAA now, but it may soon be time to ask him to sink or swim in the PBA. Luis Almanzar is nipping at his heels and there’s not much age separating the pair. At 22 years old, SP Jeff Henry is probably better than his A- league level, but he needs a third pitch to start, otherwise he could turn into a handsome bullpen piece.
Best Case: Schwarber rebounds to his monster 2020 form, Duggar gets on base, the young pitching continues to develop, and rookie RF Alejandro Toral bursts on the scene. Anderson Espinoza ascends to ace status, Chris Paddack bumps it up and the Padres strong pitching helps them grab third, with an eye toward ruining someone’s season in September. Also, team owner Ron Fowler dies.
Worst Case: San Diego’s offense can’t hold it together and the team drops a few games further under .500. Ryan Davis is found guilty of Fowler's murder.
Key Questions: Despite some frustrating years waiting for development, this team doesn’t feel like it was ever in tear-down status. If you don’t get what you want by June, would you consider it? Are you pleased with Luis Ordaz’s performance as hitting coach? Also in the front office, can you afford to jettison A.J. Preller and find someone who can foster your young talent a little better?
San Francisco Giants (73-89, 20.5 GB)
It’s hard to know what to make of the Giants, but it’s clear GM Dave Twibell wants to make something of them. San Francisco brought in an incredible 37 new faces in the offseason and said goodbye to 29 players (including some of the 37). The Giants’ offense scraped together just 600 runs last year, with a team OPS 90 points below the league average. No player knocked in more than 57 runs and the returning player with the highest OBP is 3B Christian Arroyo at .317. Arroyo and 2B Shane Benes are the only two returning position players with a positive WAR. Team pitching was a different story, with Rookie of the Year Cobi Johnson bursting onto the scene and a step-up sophomore campaign from Melvin Adon. Young closer Trevor Rogers showed promise and got unlucky with a FIP far below his ERA.
Offseason
IN: SP Anthony DeSclafani, C Oscar Hernandez, LF Yoenis Cespedes, SP Matt Andriese, SP Brandon Waddell (Trade TB), 1B Gavin Cecchini
OUT: SP Nick Kingham (Trade TB), RF Steven Duggar (Trade KC), C Buster Posey (Trade TB)
League scouts say the Giants added 6.1 WAR in the offseason, and we’ll trust them because the math. It hurts. DeSclafani, Andriese and Waddell round out the Giants’ rotation. Newcomer Gavin Cecchini gets his chance to compete at first after being picked up on a minor league contract. Hernandez continues the fine NL West tradition of poaching successful guys from another division team.
On the Farm: San Francisco’s affiliates have a ton of potential, but it hasn’t yet been realized. The blue-chippers are at low levels. SP Braxton Garrett is a point or two of both stuff and control from being in the big leagues. A show-me changeup will probably keep him from being a strong starter, but he could add multi-inning bullpen depth.
Best Case: The new-look Giants gel into an upstart squad and approach .500. Shane Benes bounces back and some of the new pitching arrivals return value.
Worst Case: Twibell inadvertently posts an Opening Day lineup with at least two players who are no longer on the team, forfeiting the game. The Giants go on to win just 60 games.
Key Questions: This is a fascinating squad with a ton of questions. Tell us about the rebuild strategy. In the front office, you’ve sunk $2 million a year into inexperienced assistant GM Sean Jarrett. Is he delivering for you? You’ve also shelled out for Jorge Navarro as scout, though he comes highly recommended. What do you want him to focus on? On the field, Melvin Adon was your second-best starter last year, but you’ve DFA’d him. What didn’t you trust? Is there anything you can do to unlock Shane Benes’ potential?
Predictions
Los Angeles wins a fifth-straight division title, coming in at 92-70 with 5 games on Arizona and Colorado, who both finish at 87-75. San Diego finds .500 and the Giants finish 69-93. Luis Urias claims the batting title; Dahl, Arenado and Mazara all make another run at MVP; Brandon Finnegan finishes with a 3.72 ERA in a successful comeback; Shane Benes flirts with .300 and Greg Allen becomes the inaugural member of the 40/40 club, stealing 40 bases and getting hit by a pitch 40 times.
? - Again, I hope I am wrong, but this does not look like a playoff team's pitching staff to me. While the team should score a lot of runs, those runs are going to be necessary just to stay in the game. The bullpen does not look like it can hold a lead or shut down a rally, so there could be a lot of double-digit scores from both dugouts. I guess in desperation my predecessor gave up his #1 pick for Archer (who the scout imagines has a 4th pitch?) rather that hope to snag a pitcher in the draft. I hope that trade works, I would not have made it.
