Post by Commissioner Erick on Oct 31, 2019 14:31:36 GMT -5
Philadelphia Phillies (52-32) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (49-34)
PHI: Luke Weaver (5-3, 6.04)
LAD: James Kapriellan (5-5, 4.33)
In a rematch of a seven game NLDS in 2020, the NL East leading Philadelphia Phillies and NL West leading Los Angeles Dodgers battle it out. Tonight's game will include a pair of pitchers who are struggling, as Philadelphia's Luke Weaver has an ERA of 6.04, while James Kapriellan's homer-inducing ways have returned. Kapriellan's been able to strike hitters out, and the Dodgers have an exceptional bullpen, making their duel with Philadelphia's lethal offense a fascinating one. On the other side, the Dodgers offense has scuffled as only a handful of their offensive players are difference makers. However, against Weaver, they may be able to produce runs. If Weaver is able to pitch effectively, this should Philadelphia's game to win, but if the game is close, the Dodgers' second ranked bullpen may be able to hold Philadelphia down in the late innings.
Players to Watch:
Phillies:
SP—Luke Weaver:
Weaver's last three starts have been home starts and Weaver's gotten progressively worse. He allowed four runs and nine hits in 5.2 innings in a loss to St. Louis. He allowed two runs and seven hits but couldn't get out of the fifth innings, going 4.2 innings versus Washington. His last start was an outing against Milwaukee, giving up seven runs on eight hits against the Brewers. Weaver's fundamentals are still strong, as his opposing plate discipline stats are strong and he's not giving up a crazy amount of home runs. Weaver led the league in BABIP against last year at .250, and his BABIP against this year is .375, so that's the main culprit for where opponents are getting their success from. The Phillies don't have a bad zone rating, except at second base. Maybe Weaver needs a better second base defender to handle pulled ground balls when he's on the mound?
RP—Luis M. Ramirez:
Ramirez has been a respectable early-inning reliever for the Phillies for two years, and has pitched well in the two World Baseball Classics he's been in for Venezuela. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, but this year he's allowed a fair amount of home runs, leading to a 5.77 ERA and a negative WAR. Ramirez' biggest issue is that he only has two good pitches, and both are fastballs. He throws an upper-90's fastball, and a low-90's sinker, but he doesn't have another pitch aside from an underwhelming curveball. This makes it hard for him to strike hitters out, leading him vulnerable to the vagaries of BABIP. The hope is that Ramirez develops that third pitch. If he doesn't, he'll continue to be little more than a long man.
RF—Seth Beer:
The man known as Whiskey has developed into the player Matt Grubs thought he'd be when he drafted him first overall back in 2018. Beer ascended onto the scene in 2020 with a tremendous rookie year, with a .934 OPS in about a third of the season. He set the single postseason record for home runs with eight during Philadelphia's World Series run, then essentially repeated his rookie year over a full season the following year. Beer knocked in 133 runs, slugged 47 homers, and looked like one of the game's premier power hitters. This year, he's ascended another level and evolved into one of the game's inner-circle superstars. He leads the league in OPS by a mile with a 1.104 mark. For context, surefire Hall-of-Famer Bryce Harper is second at 1.064 and surefire Hall-of-Famer Mike Trout is third with .988. Not only are there only two players above 1.000, but Beer is above 1.100. Beer is also second in batting average with a .334 mark, second in home runs with 24, second in OBP at .446, but first in runs and RBIs with 67 apiece. He's a monster, and a player who makes opposing pitchers turn into teetotalers.
Dodgers:
2B—Willie Calhoun:
Calhoun's rookie year was brutal, but he's been remarkably consistent the past three years, and that consistency has really bailed the Dodgers out this year. He's hitting .271 with a .334 OBP, a few thousands of points away from his marks in 2021. His power to all-fields makes him tough to shift and allows his average to be higher than most fly-ball hitters because of his distribution. He's now a full-time first baseman so his poor defense is no longer a concern. Calhoun simply has to hit enough to justify the first baseman's mitt. On pace for 35 home runs, Calhoun's bat is holding up its end of the bargain.
2B—Tetsuto Yamada:
Yamada owns the highest career OPS in Nippon League History. He has the most runs, home runs, triples, and RBIs. He's the All-Time WAR Leader. His .347 average and 10.5 WAR in 2018 are still the single-season leaders for those categories. Five All-Stars, five Platinum Sticks, two Gold Gloves, two MVPs, Yamada is a legend in Japan. In the United States, he has a .272 OBP. Yamada has struggled mightily adjusting to the pitching in the U.S. He struggled to hit for power in April, batting .227 with no extra base hits. The power came in May, but his average cratered to a .167 mark for the month. He took steps in June with a .247 average and eight home runs. In July, the power hasn't come yet, but he's hitting .278 with a .316 OBP. The hope is that Yamada continues to learn pitchers and continues to grow. With how starved for offense the Dodgers are, they'll need that hope to become a reality.
SP—James Kapriellan:
Kapriellan concluded June with a very nice string of games. Even with the home runs creeping back into his life, he was striking people out at a high clip and avoiding high-walk games. However, his last start saw him surrender six runs in 4 innings in Arizona. The culprit could simply be the run environment in Arizona versus the environment at home. Kapriellan has a 3.19 home ERA and a 5.59 road ERA. That's good, because Kapriellan will have his work cut out for him against the Phillies. His strikeout gains may be rendered moot as the Phillies strike out the fewest times of any NL team. The home runs will be a huge concern as Kapriellan is third in allowing them. Finally, Kapriellan's career platoon splits will be an issue as the Phillies have so many good left-handers. Kapriellan has made so many improvements this year, but against a World Series contender in the Phillies, this is where we see if those gains make him a legitimate playoff starter.
TRIVIA: Four qualified pitchers (10 IP) who are in the top 10 in all-time postseason ERA have pitched for the Dodgers in their career. Who are these pitchers?
PHI: Luke Weaver (5-3, 6.04)
LAD: James Kapriellan (5-5, 4.33)
In a rematch of a seven game NLDS in 2020, the NL East leading Philadelphia Phillies and NL West leading Los Angeles Dodgers battle it out. Tonight's game will include a pair of pitchers who are struggling, as Philadelphia's Luke Weaver has an ERA of 6.04, while James Kapriellan's homer-inducing ways have returned. Kapriellan's been able to strike hitters out, and the Dodgers have an exceptional bullpen, making their duel with Philadelphia's lethal offense a fascinating one. On the other side, the Dodgers offense has scuffled as only a handful of their offensive players are difference makers. However, against Weaver, they may be able to produce runs. If Weaver is able to pitch effectively, this should Philadelphia's game to win, but if the game is close, the Dodgers' second ranked bullpen may be able to hold Philadelphia down in the late innings.
Players to Watch:
Phillies:
SP—Luke Weaver:
Weaver's last three starts have been home starts and Weaver's gotten progressively worse. He allowed four runs and nine hits in 5.2 innings in a loss to St. Louis. He allowed two runs and seven hits but couldn't get out of the fifth innings, going 4.2 innings versus Washington. His last start was an outing against Milwaukee, giving up seven runs on eight hits against the Brewers. Weaver's fundamentals are still strong, as his opposing plate discipline stats are strong and he's not giving up a crazy amount of home runs. Weaver led the league in BABIP against last year at .250, and his BABIP against this year is .375, so that's the main culprit for where opponents are getting their success from. The Phillies don't have a bad zone rating, except at second base. Maybe Weaver needs a better second base defender to handle pulled ground balls when he's on the mound?
RP—Luis M. Ramirez:
Ramirez has been a respectable early-inning reliever for the Phillies for two years, and has pitched well in the two World Baseball Classics he's been in for Venezuela. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, but this year he's allowed a fair amount of home runs, leading to a 5.77 ERA and a negative WAR. Ramirez' biggest issue is that he only has two good pitches, and both are fastballs. He throws an upper-90's fastball, and a low-90's sinker, but he doesn't have another pitch aside from an underwhelming curveball. This makes it hard for him to strike hitters out, leading him vulnerable to the vagaries of BABIP. The hope is that Ramirez develops that third pitch. If he doesn't, he'll continue to be little more than a long man.
RF—Seth Beer:
The man known as Whiskey has developed into the player Matt Grubs thought he'd be when he drafted him first overall back in 2018. Beer ascended onto the scene in 2020 with a tremendous rookie year, with a .934 OPS in about a third of the season. He set the single postseason record for home runs with eight during Philadelphia's World Series run, then essentially repeated his rookie year over a full season the following year. Beer knocked in 133 runs, slugged 47 homers, and looked like one of the game's premier power hitters. This year, he's ascended another level and evolved into one of the game's inner-circle superstars. He leads the league in OPS by a mile with a 1.104 mark. For context, surefire Hall-of-Famer Bryce Harper is second at 1.064 and surefire Hall-of-Famer Mike Trout is third with .988. Not only are there only two players above 1.000, but Beer is above 1.100. Beer is also second in batting average with a .334 mark, second in home runs with 24, second in OBP at .446, but first in runs and RBIs with 67 apiece. He's a monster, and a player who makes opposing pitchers turn into teetotalers.
Dodgers:
2B—Willie Calhoun:
Calhoun's rookie year was brutal, but he's been remarkably consistent the past three years, and that consistency has really bailed the Dodgers out this year. He's hitting .271 with a .334 OBP, a few thousands of points away from his marks in 2021. His power to all-fields makes him tough to shift and allows his average to be higher than most fly-ball hitters because of his distribution. He's now a full-time first baseman so his poor defense is no longer a concern. Calhoun simply has to hit enough to justify the first baseman's mitt. On pace for 35 home runs, Calhoun's bat is holding up its end of the bargain.
2B—Tetsuto Yamada:
Yamada owns the highest career OPS in Nippon League History. He has the most runs, home runs, triples, and RBIs. He's the All-Time WAR Leader. His .347 average and 10.5 WAR in 2018 are still the single-season leaders for those categories. Five All-Stars, five Platinum Sticks, two Gold Gloves, two MVPs, Yamada is a legend in Japan. In the United States, he has a .272 OBP. Yamada has struggled mightily adjusting to the pitching in the U.S. He struggled to hit for power in April, batting .227 with no extra base hits. The power came in May, but his average cratered to a .167 mark for the month. He took steps in June with a .247 average and eight home runs. In July, the power hasn't come yet, but he's hitting .278 with a .316 OBP. The hope is that Yamada continues to learn pitchers and continues to grow. With how starved for offense the Dodgers are, they'll need that hope to become a reality.
SP—James Kapriellan:
Kapriellan concluded June with a very nice string of games. Even with the home runs creeping back into his life, he was striking people out at a high clip and avoiding high-walk games. However, his last start saw him surrender six runs in 4 innings in Arizona. The culprit could simply be the run environment in Arizona versus the environment at home. Kapriellan has a 3.19 home ERA and a 5.59 road ERA. That's good, because Kapriellan will have his work cut out for him against the Phillies. His strikeout gains may be rendered moot as the Phillies strike out the fewest times of any NL team. The home runs will be a huge concern as Kapriellan is third in allowing them. Finally, Kapriellan's career platoon splits will be an issue as the Phillies have so many good left-handers. Kapriellan has made so many improvements this year, but against a World Series contender in the Phillies, this is where we see if those gains make him a legitimate playoff starter.
TRIVIA: Four qualified pitchers (10 IP) who are in the top 10 in all-time postseason ERA have pitched for the Dodgers in their career. Who are these pitchers?
