Post by Commissioner Erick on Nov 12, 2019 19:58:48 GMT -5
San Diego Padres (50-56) @ Milwaukee Brewers (48-58)
SD: Adrian Morejon (5-8, 4.45)
MIL: Luis Ortiz (8-5, 3.94)
It was a disappointing week for both the San Diego Padres and the Milwaukee Brewers as depressing weekends all but sealed their postseason doors shut. San Diego was swept in Miami to fall 9.5 back of both the division and second wild card spot. Meanwhile, the Brewers dropped three of four to the Cubs to fall 10 games under .500 and seven behind Chicago. The Padres will use the game to show off some of their young prospects, namely second year Adrian Morejon. Morejon hasn't had a fairytale start to his career, but he's carrying a 4.45 ERA as a 23-year old. Milwaukee will highlight Garrett Mitchell, who has a poor walk-to-strikeout ratio, but has 14 steals and has played terrific defense in his rookie year.
Players to Watch:
Padres:
3B—Fernando Tatis Jr.:
While the Padres have had a disappointing season and appeared snakebit when Tatis Jr. underwent a major concussion last year, they have to be relieved that Tatis has put things together and turned in a solid season. In about a third of a season, Tatis has hit 10 home runs, 12 doubles, and produced a solid .273 average. He's played strong defense at both third base and short, and can be a starter in the league for a long time. While scouts say his swing has been compromised ever since his concussion, Tatis' offensive start to his major league career has been optimistic. Ryan Davis will be paying close attention to Tatis going forward, considering Tatis represented the best chance at being the star hitter the Padres need.
CF—Kevin Kiermaier:
After hitting over .300 with 29 home runs in three-fourths of a season with Tampa Bay last year, Kiermaier has come over to San Diego and fallen apart. He's batting just .211 with a .274 on-base mark, and nine home runs. His seven triples are valuable, and he's still an excellent fielder, but Kiermaier was supposed to be the offensive star the Padres have been searching for to pair with Luis Urias. Kiermaier, instead, has looked overmatched at the plate at times, while making a not insignificant $12 million. With the Padres all-but-certainly declining Kiermaier's team option at the end of this year, it's likely he loses playing time to top prospect Leodys Taveras.
RP—Anthony Kay:
A swingman with the Giants and Blue Jays, Kay has been converted to the bullpen full time by San Diego, with poor results. Kay's strikeout rate is only 18.13%, which is very low for a reliever. Kay's given up seven home runs in 41.1 innings, so he's not making up for things by keeping the ball in the park. The one thing Kay has done is keep the ball on the ground, as he has a ground ball rate over 63%. However, if he doesn't improve his stuff, or find a way to keep righties to an average below .300, he won't be more than a Triple-A guy getting spot duty in the majors.
Brewers:
1B—A.J. Reed:
After a massive 2020 campaign in a half season, and a 39-home run year last year, the Brewers had to be excited, expecting at least one power hitter to drive in runs from the middle of their order. Instead, Reed is hitting .212 with 15 home runs, an average too low to make Reed anything more than replacement level as a First Baseman or Designated Hitter. Shockingly, Reed is batting just .203 against right-handers, with a .716 OPS. Reed's had just three games this season with three or more hits and unsurprisingly, the Brewers have won those games. He'll likely sit against left-handed Adrian Morejon.
3B—Carlos Vargas:
Vargas is a 23-year-old infielder who found himself in Milwaukee after being waived by the Giants. Vargas has only had 84 plate appearances this year, showing decent patience, a mature approach, and an inability to hit the ball hard. Vargas did hit for 24 doubles, 12 homers, and a .275 average with 10 steals in Double-A last year, and he's third all-time in OPS for a shortstop in the Dominican Rookie League. At 23-years-old, some pedigree in the minors, and a decent start to his career, Vargas could carve out a career as a backup that hits against lefties, but he'll likely need to increase his defensive versatility.
SP—Luis Ortiz:
Ortiz had a red-hot first half of 2020 that led to him being an All-Star, though he's been pretty pedestrian every other half of his career. His 3.94 ERA this year would be the best of his career, as Milwaukee going with a five-man rotation has stabilized things for Ortiz. Instead of leading the league in starts and pitching 200 innings, Ortiz has been rested enough to post the best strikeout rate of his career. Ortiz is still pretty home-run prone, so San Diego's ability to hit dingers may determine the game.
TRIVIA: Who is the All-Time Leader in Zone Rating for Left Fielders?
SD: Adrian Morejon (5-8, 4.45)
MIL: Luis Ortiz (8-5, 3.94)
It was a disappointing week for both the San Diego Padres and the Milwaukee Brewers as depressing weekends all but sealed their postseason doors shut. San Diego was swept in Miami to fall 9.5 back of both the division and second wild card spot. Meanwhile, the Brewers dropped three of four to the Cubs to fall 10 games under .500 and seven behind Chicago. The Padres will use the game to show off some of their young prospects, namely second year Adrian Morejon. Morejon hasn't had a fairytale start to his career, but he's carrying a 4.45 ERA as a 23-year old. Milwaukee will highlight Garrett Mitchell, who has a poor walk-to-strikeout ratio, but has 14 steals and has played terrific defense in his rookie year.
Players to Watch:
Padres:
3B—Fernando Tatis Jr.:
While the Padres have had a disappointing season and appeared snakebit when Tatis Jr. underwent a major concussion last year, they have to be relieved that Tatis has put things together and turned in a solid season. In about a third of a season, Tatis has hit 10 home runs, 12 doubles, and produced a solid .273 average. He's played strong defense at both third base and short, and can be a starter in the league for a long time. While scouts say his swing has been compromised ever since his concussion, Tatis' offensive start to his major league career has been optimistic. Ryan Davis will be paying close attention to Tatis going forward, considering Tatis represented the best chance at being the star hitter the Padres need.
CF—Kevin Kiermaier:
After hitting over .300 with 29 home runs in three-fourths of a season with Tampa Bay last year, Kiermaier has come over to San Diego and fallen apart. He's batting just .211 with a .274 on-base mark, and nine home runs. His seven triples are valuable, and he's still an excellent fielder, but Kiermaier was supposed to be the offensive star the Padres have been searching for to pair with Luis Urias. Kiermaier, instead, has looked overmatched at the plate at times, while making a not insignificant $12 million. With the Padres all-but-certainly declining Kiermaier's team option at the end of this year, it's likely he loses playing time to top prospect Leodys Taveras.
RP—Anthony Kay:
A swingman with the Giants and Blue Jays, Kay has been converted to the bullpen full time by San Diego, with poor results. Kay's strikeout rate is only 18.13%, which is very low for a reliever. Kay's given up seven home runs in 41.1 innings, so he's not making up for things by keeping the ball in the park. The one thing Kay has done is keep the ball on the ground, as he has a ground ball rate over 63%. However, if he doesn't improve his stuff, or find a way to keep righties to an average below .300, he won't be more than a Triple-A guy getting spot duty in the majors.
Brewers:
1B—A.J. Reed:
After a massive 2020 campaign in a half season, and a 39-home run year last year, the Brewers had to be excited, expecting at least one power hitter to drive in runs from the middle of their order. Instead, Reed is hitting .212 with 15 home runs, an average too low to make Reed anything more than replacement level as a First Baseman or Designated Hitter. Shockingly, Reed is batting just .203 against right-handers, with a .716 OPS. Reed's had just three games this season with three or more hits and unsurprisingly, the Brewers have won those games. He'll likely sit against left-handed Adrian Morejon.
3B—Carlos Vargas:
Vargas is a 23-year-old infielder who found himself in Milwaukee after being waived by the Giants. Vargas has only had 84 plate appearances this year, showing decent patience, a mature approach, and an inability to hit the ball hard. Vargas did hit for 24 doubles, 12 homers, and a .275 average with 10 steals in Double-A last year, and he's third all-time in OPS for a shortstop in the Dominican Rookie League. At 23-years-old, some pedigree in the minors, and a decent start to his career, Vargas could carve out a career as a backup that hits against lefties, but he'll likely need to increase his defensive versatility.
SP—Luis Ortiz:
Ortiz had a red-hot first half of 2020 that led to him being an All-Star, though he's been pretty pedestrian every other half of his career. His 3.94 ERA this year would be the best of his career, as Milwaukee going with a five-man rotation has stabilized things for Ortiz. Instead of leading the league in starts and pitching 200 innings, Ortiz has been rested enough to post the best strikeout rate of his career. Ortiz is still pretty home-run prone, so San Diego's ability to hit dingers may determine the game.
TRIVIA: Who is the All-Time Leader in Zone Rating for Left Fielders?
