Post by Commissioner Erick on Dec 14, 2019 12:23:05 GMT -5
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks are a fascinating NLDS matchup. One team nobody fathomed would make the playoffs after their first half, and the other nobody thinks deserved a playoff berth given their second half. The Cubs slug the ball and have big name stars surrounded by Triple-A talent. Arizona, meanwhile, cut its biggest star mid-season and wins with speed and defense. Styles make fights, and this is a fascinating style of contrasts.
Diamondbacks Offense versus Cubs Pitching
The Chicago Cubs starters are essentially Steven Matz, and three variations of the same right-handed starters. Sonny Gray, Kyle Hendricks, and Jesse Hahn each throw strikes, pitch to contact, and prevent home runs. Hendricks throws a ton of ground balls, Hahn gets a ton of fly balls, and Gray is the arm Goldilocks is most attracted to. Hahn has the best ERA and Hendricks the worst, largely as a result of Chicago's defense. The Cubs have a tremendous left side of their infield, but otherwise, they have one of the worst zone ratings in the league.
All of those three pitchers are also worse against lefties than righties, and Arizona is better against right-handed starters than left-handers. However, that's because Arizona slugs better against righties, not because they slash the ball around. How Arizona's left-handers perform on balls in play will be a big subplot in the series. After all, Arizona has only one regular with an average above .263, and the team is second-to-last in OBP. Against a staff that doesn't allow home runs, this will be a fun matchup.
Against Steven Matz, it won't be a contest. Arizona had the worst average, the worst on-base percentage, and was a point away from having the worst slugging percentage against left-handers. The team simply doesn't hit lefties on a consistent basis, and Matz is one of the best arms in baseball. Matz has the fourth best ERA in the league, the best WHIP, and has allowed only 10 home runs to left-handers in his entire career. All expectations are that Matz dominates, meaning Arizona will need to win four games against Chicago's right-handers.
Arizona can try to turn the tables with their ability to swipe bases. Arizona is second in wSB this year, and second in steals. However, the Cubs are excellent at shutting down the running game when Salvador Perez is behind the plate. If he qualified, he'd be the fifth best defensive catcher in the league at throwing out runners. In this respect, Wilson Contreras' fractured hand has been a blessing. From a pitching perspective, Hahn allowed 18 of 21 stolen base attempts to succeed, Hendricks 15 of 19, Gray allowed 12 of 19, and the bullpen 23 of 28. Only Steven Matz really controls the running game as a pitcher, so maybe the Arizona tries to force steals against the righties?
Arizona has only one player with over a 104 OPS+, so it'll be hard for them to score. Chicago does a good job preventing cheap home runs, which is normally Arizona's best source of offense. Greg Allen will need to have a huge series. He hit .282 with a .376 OBP, seven triples, and 36 steals. Allen is the one player who can wreak havoc with balls in play, and he'll need to be huge.
Chicago's bullpen is vulnerable in the middle innings, but will shut the door late. Zach Britton had a 1.68 ERA as he continues to be one of the best relievers in history. Bonkers Carrizales led the league in appearances, had 10 wins, nine saves, struck out 162 batters, and finished 26th in the league in whiffs as a reliever. Skyler Arias earned his bones in last season's playoffs, and is fantastic as a lefty specialist. Left-handers hit .157 off him this year.
However, Chicago has a bunch of middling long men. Sam Howard had a 4.48 ERA and is homer prone, Trevor Oaks had a 4.52 mark and can't strike anybody out, and Jose de Leon had a 5.92 ERA and has never shown to be a MLB-caliber pitcher. If Chicago's starters get hurt, Arizona can certainly catch up.
Tae-Hoon Doo is Arizona's best player off the bench. He has the ability to get on base, has decent power, has a good glove at third, and has a .785 OPS against righties. If Arizona wants to shake things up, they can start him and move precocious rookie Juan Gestoso to the bench. Gestoso has run all over defenses this year, but only has a .301 OBP against righties. He's stolen 27 of 30 steal attempts, but may not be dynamic enough as a hitter.
Cubs Offense versus Diamondbacks Pitching
Like Chicago, Arizona has its best starter be a left-handed starter, with a bunch of underwhelming righties following up. The difference is that Chicago doesn't have team-wide platoon splits.
Marco Gonzalez worked to a 3.13 ERA that was third in the NL. He made an amazing 40 starts this year, working 204.1 innings, and going 13-4. He's become excellent at keeping the ball in the park despite playing in Arizona half his starts. Gonzalez has different strengths against different hitters. Against righties, his changeup keeps them from hitting for power. Against lefties, he pounds the zone and keeps them off base. Against all hitters, he's very effective.
Chris Archer had a solid year for Arizona, working to a 14-8 record and a 3.66 ERA. He had decent walk, strikeout, and home rates, but he also pitched over his head, outperforming his FIP by about a full run. Archer has a 3.18 home ERA and a 4.19 road ERA. Jake Odorizzi is similar to Archer in that he's much better at home, and much better against righties. He gives up a ton of home runs, though, and Chicago has some major home run power.
Arizona has one lefty in its bullpen, the Ultimate Sacrificer Brandon Finnegan. Finnegan has sacrificed his starting spot, going to the bullpen for the good of the team. He has reverse splits this year, and has given up a ton of home runs making him dangerous against the Cubs. However, he has a history of clutch playoff success against teams from Chicago in the playoffs.
Silvino Bracho is the closer, and he's a tightrope walker. He has great strikeout numbers, blowing away 92 hitters in 73 innings and leading the league in saves with 41. However, he also has given up 13 home runs so one-run games are not automatic. He's a dangerous pitcher against Chicago's power.
Edubray Ramos is the short reliever. He doesn't have great stuff, but he doesn't walk hitters which jives with Arizona's defense. He's much better against righties than lefties, a product of the lack of stuff.
Dan Reynolds and Jarred Cosart both collect strikeouts, both walk everyone, both get hit hard, and both don't inspire confidence against the Cubs.
Ariel Jurado is an outstanding long man as he keeps the ball on the ground, throws strikes, and has a changeup to hold his own against lefties. Jurado went 9-0 this year, and has the flexibility to retire different types of batters in different situations.
Most of the arms struggle with left-handed pitching, but the Cubs only plate three lefties in their lineup, Freddie Freeman, Daryl Wilson, and switch-hitting Francisco Lindor. Freeman and Lindor had good years, but finished far from the lofty heights they've reached in the past, while Wilson is a glove-first player. This means, the fate of Chicago's offense will rest primarily on how their right-handers handle right-handed pitching, plus a pair of lefties with great changeups.
Manny Machado had a .286 average with 20 home runs against righties and has always been strong against same-side pitching. Alex Bregman had a down year with only a .263 average against righties, but he's historically hit them very well. Kris Bryant had a barking elbow that limited him to 62 games, but he's also someone who has smashed right-handed pitching in the past, to the tune of an .887 OPS in his career. Plus, while Giancarlo Stanton's average disappears against righties, he hit 24 bombs off them this season.
In fact, Stanton may be the X-Factor in the series. If he can hit some home runs off righties, Chicago will be in good shape. If not, the Cubs offense may be kept in check.
The Cubs were mid-pack in average, and based on Arizona's handedness, plus the D-Backs defense, it will be hard to expect the Cubs to plate a bunch of hits. Arizona led baseball in zone rating, nearly doubling up the second place Marlins. The outfield defense is particularly impressive, with Quinton Holmes and Greg Allen looking to take home hardware after the year. Fly balls that don't go over the fence will land in an outfielder's glove, a reason why Arizona's fly-ball oriented staff has done so well. It's a special defense that forces opponents to hit homers as doubles and triples die in the outfield.
Chicago didn't pinch hit the entire season so don't expect anything from its bench.
Season Series:
Chicago swept a road series in May when they were surging and Arizona was scuffling, then Arizona won two of three in September when the situations were flipped.
Arizona got nothing from its offense in the first meeting as the Cubs won 3-1 in 13 innings. Francisco Lindor finally broke through with a two-run single off Edubray Ramos to get the Cubs a lead they'd hold on to for the win. Chicago got strong pitching from Jesse Hahn the next day, and the offense produced a 10-run sixth inning leading a blowout 17-3 Cubs win. Freddie Freeman scored four and drove in four as Aaron Blair, Frank Duncan, Reynolds and Jurado were each blown up. Chicago was more merciful in the finale, but still beat up Finnegan, Cosart, Jurado, and Bracho on the way to a 9-3 win. Giancarlo Stanton homered twice.
In September, Arizona's offense didn't get going, but their pitching stabilized. Jurado pitched 3.1 strong relief innings in the opener and the Diamondbacks tagged Kyle Hendricks for six runs before the end of the third in a 6-3 win. The Cubs took the middle game when Alex Bregman hit a two-run single off Dan Reynolds in the eighth inning to break a 4-4 tie. Duncan and Finnegan pitched poorly for Arizona, as Lindor and Wilson each had three hits and scored twice. Arizona won the series with a 2-1 victory in the finale. Yunior Severino homered late against Steven Matz to pin the loss on him despite Matz working 8.1 innings of two-run ball. Chris Archer was strong and Arizona got double plays in the eighth and ninth to hold on.
Key Questions:
Arizona will have the handedness advantage with their pitchers, but most of their relief arms have struggled against the Cubs. Will they continue to struggle or will their platoon advantage win out?
Can Arizona get enough of Chicago's fly balls to land in the park so their defense can do what it does best and flag them down?
Can Chicago's starters go deep into games so the Cubs don't have to use their middle relievers?
Prediction: Matz will dominate a couple of starts and Arizona won't have the juice to win four games against the Cubs righties. Chicago 4-2.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins
Two Seasons ago the Philadelphia Phillies were the upstart, relying on developing prospects, young talent, and accelerated development to take the National League by storm on the way to a World Series appearance. This year, they'll play the juggernaut looking to hold off the young, emerging Miami Marlins, who've already knocked off the defending champions in their quest to make history.
Add in the fact that these two clubs are division rivals and have the best record remaining of any NL team, and this should be a fun series.
Phillies Offense versus Marlins Pitching
The Philadelphia offense was a machine this season, with the club posting the best average and the best on-base percentage in NL history. Only the 2021 champion Washington Nationals scored more runs and had a better OPS or wOBA than this year's Phillies. Part of that is a result of great depth, but part of it is a result of star power with Seth Beer. Philadelphia can't get enough Beer, and opposing pitchers wish to see the Phillies cut off. He led the NL in average at .341 and in RBIs with 137. He clubbed 44 home runs, and put up an OPS that only Bryce Harper in 2017 and 2020 has eclipsed. Beer has joined the pantheon of the immortals, and he just turned 26. He'll be a nightmare for Miami all series.
Beer is joined in the lineup by another member of the 40-homer club in rookie Darick Hall. Hall smashed 42 long balls, drove in 112, and earned an All-Star nod in his rookie campaign. Not an apples-to-apples comparison due to season length, it's still remarkable that until last year, Hall had never had more than 14 home runs in a season in the minors. He had 28 home runs in a good year at Lehigh Valley last year, then exploded into a superstar overnight this year.
With Yordan Alvarez chipping in with 21 home runs in a limited campaign, the Philadelphia Offense doesn't hurt for left-handed power, and the ability to keep lefties in the park will be critical for Miami's chances of winning.
Fortunately for them, they have one break on their side. An injured Mickey Moniak kept the Phillies from advancing in the Wild Card Game last year. He has a badly sprained ankle that Scott Sheridan hasn't been able to heal. Sheridan is Legendary in his ability to treat leg injuries, but if he can't fix up Moniak, it removes an excellent hitter from the Philadelphia offense, and one who is fantastic at getting on base in front of the sluggers.
Philadelphia will still have Max Schrock's .320 average in the two-spot and Andres Gimenez' .351 OBP leading off just in case. Plus they still have Andrew Toles' .320 average, and while Odubel Herrera had a down year this year, he's a year removed from back-to-back seasons with 19 or more homers and an average well over .300.
All this is to say that the Phillies are stacked with power from the left side, and even without Moniak, have a ton of on-base threats from that side as well.
The issue is that all the team's threats are left-handed except Maikel Franco, and Franco surprisingly struggles against left-handed pitching. The Phillies are still an exceptional team against lefties, but outside of Beer, their regulars all perform a little bit worse against left-handed pitching.
This presents opponents with a clear angle of attack—if they have the lefties to take advantage. Miami won't have Daniel Norris early in the series as they needed him for the Wild Card Game. They have Josh Taylor, but while Taylor is a strong arm, he's homer prone against a juggernaut. Philadelphia hit six home runs against him in five starts, for a 2.0 HR/9. He went 0-2 with a 6.46 ERA.
That means the fish will need Archie Bradley and Takahiro Norimoto to hold up against the left-handed armada. Norimoto is Hall's biggest competition for the NL Rookie of the Year Award in a very strong class, but of any team he's faced at least twice, he has the highest ERA against the Phillies with a 5.27 ERA. Norimoto has a ton of guts and a world of guile, but while the Hiroshima Toyo Carp have some strong lineups in the Nippon League, Philadelphia is in a whole different continent both geographically and in metaphorical offensive prowess.
Archie Bradley hasn't pitched very often against the Phillies this year, facing them just three times. He's gone 4 innings, allowing three earned runs in each of his last two starts, though he did pitch a 7-inning, one-run gem early in the year. At least there's some upside with Bradley if he's going well, where he can shut down anyone.
With Buddy Boshers hurt, Miami has two lefties in their pen. One is Aaron Loup who before this year last pitched in the majors back in 2017 when he made one appearance for Toronto. Loup retires lefties pretty well, but the ones he doesn't retire have pretty decent isolated slugging numbers off him.
Dario Alvarez is a weapon. Lefties hit just .168 off him with a .274 slugging mark as he overwhelms lefties. Alvarez will be called upon often in the series, and could be a game-changer out of the pen.
Miami's right-handers are all really trustworthy, aside from the fact that they're righties against Philadelphia. Jacob Barnes is wild, but doesn't yield too many homers, while Drew Steckenrider is wilder, didn't give up many homers this year, and has been pretty tough on lefties the past two seasons. Like Steckenrider, Phil Maton eschewed a home run happy history to keep it in the park this year, and has big strikeout stuff.
Nick Wittgren is the one guy who will give up home runs, but they'll be solo shots as he doesn't walk anybody. Left-handers haven't hit him too hard in his career either, and his fly-ball ways are tailor made for Miami's outfield.
Nick Burdi is the closer and he keeps getting better and better at limiting home runs. He issued just three this season, leading to 31 saves in 33 chances, a 2.85 ERA, and 66 strikeouts in 47.1 innings. Lefties haven't had more than a .714 OPS off him since 2018.
It's a good bullpen that can be counted on against most teams, but Beer will stress the hell out of it in this series.
If Miami limits longballs, their defense is superb. Miami was third in the NL in zone rating, but their outfield was stupendous. Jeren Kendall didn't have Quentin Holmes' defensive season, but he was the next best thing, making over half of all defensive plays deemed unlikely for the average fielder. Trent Clark will likely also be a Gold Glove runner up in left, while Isael Soto is solid in right. Miami's infielders aren't quite as good, but if the pitchers can keep the ball in the park, it won't be easy to string together a significant bunch of extra base hits against this defense.
Philadelphia doesn't have a deep bench if Moniak is out, but Tristan Gray hits well and can play all over the infield, while Andrew Pullin has decent power as a bench bat. Pullin wouldn't provide much defensive value though, which is a big drawback to having him in the lineup.
Marlins Offense versus Phillies Pitching
Miami's offense is mostly geared towards slashing and running, but they also smashed four home runs on the road in the Wild Card Game, two against last season's Cy Young Runner Up. Seven Marlins posted an above average wRC+ highlighting the lineup's depth. They stole 118 bases, which was the third most in the NL. It wasn't the most efficient base-stealing unit as the Marlins were third from the bottom in wSB. However, their base-running was excellent, as the team led the league in base-running runs. They'll steal second and third in bulk, with some outs mixed in, but they'll always get from first-to-third.
Miami will platoon heavily and the end result is an OPS against lefties and righties that's virtually identical. Against righties, Jeren Kendall is in the lineup to provide extra base-stealing and defense, and Bruce Maxwell is in, which improves the defense. Luis Gonzalez also enters, which gives the lineup a bit of pop. When Miami plays a lineup to punish left-handed starters, Donny Sands and Wuilmer Buccera enter, which hurts the defense a bit. The lineup versus right-handers has more speed than the lineup versus left-handers, emphasized by Jeren Kendall's presence.
Kendall is a star against right-handers, and when teaming with righty-crushing Blake Tiberi, and Wilmer Flores, who lacks a platoon split, the middle of the order becomes pretty powerful. The lineup against lefties is a little bit more average-based, with Willi Castro taking on the two-spot, and the addition of Buccera and Matt Duffy. However, that gets mitigated slightly by the fact that the lefty Soto hits for more power against lefties than righties.
Either way, the main takeaway is that Miami's offense is flexibile to counter different pitchers, though the defense drops off slightly against lefty arms.
Philadelphia will throw two lefties at Miami, and it will throw definitely one, but possibly two lefties as well. Madison Bumgarner is the big name, and the player the Phillies gave up a lot for to acquire. He was the AL Cy Young Winner the past two seasons, and aside from two bad starts really, has been a postseason stalwart. He's 7-4 with a 3.48 postseason ERA lifetime, and 6-0 with a 1.77 as a National League pitcher back when San Francisco was a late aughts powerhouse. He hasn't pitched that great this year with a 4.42 ERA, but he's also 16-4. How he pitches this series may swing the verdict on whether or not he's had a successful season.
Adam Conley is scheduled to work Game 2 and probably Game 6. An absolute workhorse, Conley's perpetually making 30 starts, he's allergic to home runs, and he keeps the ball on the ground, coming up with the third best ground ball rate in the league this year. His consistency and durability has allowed him to rack up the 15th most home runs in PBA history, and now he'll take on the team that traded him away. Conley's made three strong starts against Miami already this year and would love a chance to end their season. His allergy to home runs will provide a big test of Miami's contact hitters versus Philadelphia's infield defense.
Franklyn Kilome's only postseason experience was a couple of strong starts with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs in 202, but he's emerged as a big time starter this season, with a team-leading 3.37 ERA, a 12-6 record, and only 18 home runs in 176.1 innings. He also keeps the ball in the park, a trait of Philadelphia's top starters, but not as pressing a factor against a good baserunning team with a good average like Miami.
As a fourth starter, Thomas Eshelman was okay, but doesn't have great stuff and followed up three strong outings against the Marlins with a stinker in his final start. Eshelman gets crushed by lefties and gives up a ton of fly balls, meaning a team with slugging lefties always has a chance to produce some home runs. He strikes out lefties more than he does righties, so he does have the ability to escape some jams, but he also is fourth in the NL with 14 Wild Pitches. For a team like Miami that's middle of the pack in strikeouts, and second in average, hurting yourself and giving up free bases is something that could cost Eshelman.
Philadelphia had the best bullpen in the league as the collective put up a 3.14 ERA. Dan Altivilla was rock solid at closer with a 1.86 ERA, plus 39 saves in 40 chances. In his playoff career, he's pitched 9 scoreless innings. He's as solid as solid can be.
Setting him up, Ryan Buchter had a 2.17 ERA with 99 strikeouts from the left side, while Edgar E. Garcia had a 2.52 ERA and 117 strikeouts from the right side. Each pitcher pitches up in the zone but doesn't really give up a lot of home runs. They strike a ton of hitters out and give up very few hits, which is a decent profile to face Miami.
In the early and middle innings, the Phillies will mix and match six relievers. Ian Krol and Luke Weaver will presumably pitch the early innings as Weaver was demoted from his starting role for the playoffs, and Krol was the only poor reliever this season. However, Elniery Garcia, Tyler DeLoach, and Ryan Helsley each allowed an ERA under 3.00. Garcia, in particular, was a revelation, winning 10 games, pitching to a 2.24 ERA, striking out 108 batters in 96 innings, and walking under 4.7% of opposing hitters. Garcia dominated lefties and righties alike in his first extended run in the majors.
Helsley is a two-pitch pitcher vulnerable to home runs, so he's best served against righties and righties only, but he somehow pitched to a 2.87 ERA despite a negative WAR. He had a good season, but maybe shouldn't be trusted in a major spot. Likewise DeLoach pitched well, but he only pitched 25 big league innings, though he was very strong in the minors. He had a 5.29 ERA last year and a 6.55 ERA the season before, so maybe he shouldn't be trusted in a big spot.
"Bad News" Pavel Staal is also on the club, and he's been bad news for opposing power hitters, reducing his home rate each season and putting up a 3.22 ERA this year. Armed with a fastball, a curveball, and an awful changeup, Staal's curveball has worked like a changeup and allowed the left-hander to pitch better against right-handers over his career. His ground ball rate against righties is higher than lefties, which explains some of the results.
With so many quality relievers, it will be tough for Miami to come back. The Phillies have a number of righties and lefties in their pen to provide balance, and all the relievers have proven themselves except Weaver. Even Krol has a 3.77 career ERA.
Philadelphia's defense is good in the outfield and awful on the infield. However, Moniak made their defense special as he may win a Gold Glove. Without him, Toles is strong in left, but Herrera is sub-par in center, and Beer has a terrific bat. It's not an ideal defense for Miami. On the plus side, Beer's 10 outfield assists are well equipped for Miami's baserunning. It's possible Beer, who leads the league in right field outfield assists, can gun down a baserunner or two.
Miami's bench will be deep and versatile with so many platoon players able to pinch hit.
Season Series:
Philadelphia went 13-6 against Miami on the year, including a sweep during the final series of the year. Miami won two of three in Philadelphia in April, but Philadelphia responded by going into Miami in early May and taking two of three. In July, Philly took two of three at home, then in August, the Philies went into Miami and swept them in a four game set. Miami eeked out a series win in late September in Miami, but Philadelphia took care of business with the home sweep to end the year.
Philadelphia's offense actually wasn't amazing against Miami, averaging 4.5 runs a game. However, Philadelphia really handled Miami's offense, as the Marlins scored two runs or fewer in over half of the contests.
Key Questions:
Can Mickey Moniak play at all? His presence gives Philadelphia a huge edge, but they're vulnerable without him.
Can Bradley pull out a couple of dominant performances? Miami may need him to in order to win the series.
How will Schrock play against such a good defense? If Schrock isn't getting hits and Moniak can't play, Beer may bat with a lot more bases empty situations, tempering his effectiveness?
Prediction: The Marlins have a solid team, but the Phillies have had their number most of the year. Their best weapon in their staff won't be available early, and the Phillies pitchers are good enough to keep Miami from running up the scoreboard. Moniak not playing gives Miami a chance, both with the offensive and defensive dropoff, but the Phillis simply have too much talent. Phillies 4-2
The Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks are a fascinating NLDS matchup. One team nobody fathomed would make the playoffs after their first half, and the other nobody thinks deserved a playoff berth given their second half. The Cubs slug the ball and have big name stars surrounded by Triple-A talent. Arizona, meanwhile, cut its biggest star mid-season and wins with speed and defense. Styles make fights, and this is a fascinating style of contrasts.
Diamondbacks Offense versus Cubs Pitching
The Chicago Cubs starters are essentially Steven Matz, and three variations of the same right-handed starters. Sonny Gray, Kyle Hendricks, and Jesse Hahn each throw strikes, pitch to contact, and prevent home runs. Hendricks throws a ton of ground balls, Hahn gets a ton of fly balls, and Gray is the arm Goldilocks is most attracted to. Hahn has the best ERA and Hendricks the worst, largely as a result of Chicago's defense. The Cubs have a tremendous left side of their infield, but otherwise, they have one of the worst zone ratings in the league.
All of those three pitchers are also worse against lefties than righties, and Arizona is better against right-handed starters than left-handers. However, that's because Arizona slugs better against righties, not because they slash the ball around. How Arizona's left-handers perform on balls in play will be a big subplot in the series. After all, Arizona has only one regular with an average above .263, and the team is second-to-last in OBP. Against a staff that doesn't allow home runs, this will be a fun matchup.
Against Steven Matz, it won't be a contest. Arizona had the worst average, the worst on-base percentage, and was a point away from having the worst slugging percentage against left-handers. The team simply doesn't hit lefties on a consistent basis, and Matz is one of the best arms in baseball. Matz has the fourth best ERA in the league, the best WHIP, and has allowed only 10 home runs to left-handers in his entire career. All expectations are that Matz dominates, meaning Arizona will need to win four games against Chicago's right-handers.
Arizona can try to turn the tables with their ability to swipe bases. Arizona is second in wSB this year, and second in steals. However, the Cubs are excellent at shutting down the running game when Salvador Perez is behind the plate. If he qualified, he'd be the fifth best defensive catcher in the league at throwing out runners. In this respect, Wilson Contreras' fractured hand has been a blessing. From a pitching perspective, Hahn allowed 18 of 21 stolen base attempts to succeed, Hendricks 15 of 19, Gray allowed 12 of 19, and the bullpen 23 of 28. Only Steven Matz really controls the running game as a pitcher, so maybe the Arizona tries to force steals against the righties?
Arizona has only one player with over a 104 OPS+, so it'll be hard for them to score. Chicago does a good job preventing cheap home runs, which is normally Arizona's best source of offense. Greg Allen will need to have a huge series. He hit .282 with a .376 OBP, seven triples, and 36 steals. Allen is the one player who can wreak havoc with balls in play, and he'll need to be huge.
Chicago's bullpen is vulnerable in the middle innings, but will shut the door late. Zach Britton had a 1.68 ERA as he continues to be one of the best relievers in history. Bonkers Carrizales led the league in appearances, had 10 wins, nine saves, struck out 162 batters, and finished 26th in the league in whiffs as a reliever. Skyler Arias earned his bones in last season's playoffs, and is fantastic as a lefty specialist. Left-handers hit .157 off him this year.
However, Chicago has a bunch of middling long men. Sam Howard had a 4.48 ERA and is homer prone, Trevor Oaks had a 4.52 mark and can't strike anybody out, and Jose de Leon had a 5.92 ERA and has never shown to be a MLB-caliber pitcher. If Chicago's starters get hurt, Arizona can certainly catch up.
Tae-Hoon Doo is Arizona's best player off the bench. He has the ability to get on base, has decent power, has a good glove at third, and has a .785 OPS against righties. If Arizona wants to shake things up, they can start him and move precocious rookie Juan Gestoso to the bench. Gestoso has run all over defenses this year, but only has a .301 OBP against righties. He's stolen 27 of 30 steal attempts, but may not be dynamic enough as a hitter.
Cubs Offense versus Diamondbacks Pitching
Like Chicago, Arizona has its best starter be a left-handed starter, with a bunch of underwhelming righties following up. The difference is that Chicago doesn't have team-wide platoon splits.
Marco Gonzalez worked to a 3.13 ERA that was third in the NL. He made an amazing 40 starts this year, working 204.1 innings, and going 13-4. He's become excellent at keeping the ball in the park despite playing in Arizona half his starts. Gonzalez has different strengths against different hitters. Against righties, his changeup keeps them from hitting for power. Against lefties, he pounds the zone and keeps them off base. Against all hitters, he's very effective.
Chris Archer had a solid year for Arizona, working to a 14-8 record and a 3.66 ERA. He had decent walk, strikeout, and home rates, but he also pitched over his head, outperforming his FIP by about a full run. Archer has a 3.18 home ERA and a 4.19 road ERA. Jake Odorizzi is similar to Archer in that he's much better at home, and much better against righties. He gives up a ton of home runs, though, and Chicago has some major home run power.
Arizona has one lefty in its bullpen, the Ultimate Sacrificer Brandon Finnegan. Finnegan has sacrificed his starting spot, going to the bullpen for the good of the team. He has reverse splits this year, and has given up a ton of home runs making him dangerous against the Cubs. However, he has a history of clutch playoff success against teams from Chicago in the playoffs.
Silvino Bracho is the closer, and he's a tightrope walker. He has great strikeout numbers, blowing away 92 hitters in 73 innings and leading the league in saves with 41. However, he also has given up 13 home runs so one-run games are not automatic. He's a dangerous pitcher against Chicago's power.
Edubray Ramos is the short reliever. He doesn't have great stuff, but he doesn't walk hitters which jives with Arizona's defense. He's much better against righties than lefties, a product of the lack of stuff.
Dan Reynolds and Jarred Cosart both collect strikeouts, both walk everyone, both get hit hard, and both don't inspire confidence against the Cubs.
Ariel Jurado is an outstanding long man as he keeps the ball on the ground, throws strikes, and has a changeup to hold his own against lefties. Jurado went 9-0 this year, and has the flexibility to retire different types of batters in different situations.
Most of the arms struggle with left-handed pitching, but the Cubs only plate three lefties in their lineup, Freddie Freeman, Daryl Wilson, and switch-hitting Francisco Lindor. Freeman and Lindor had good years, but finished far from the lofty heights they've reached in the past, while Wilson is a glove-first player. This means, the fate of Chicago's offense will rest primarily on how their right-handers handle right-handed pitching, plus a pair of lefties with great changeups.
Manny Machado had a .286 average with 20 home runs against righties and has always been strong against same-side pitching. Alex Bregman had a down year with only a .263 average against righties, but he's historically hit them very well. Kris Bryant had a barking elbow that limited him to 62 games, but he's also someone who has smashed right-handed pitching in the past, to the tune of an .887 OPS in his career. Plus, while Giancarlo Stanton's average disappears against righties, he hit 24 bombs off them this season.
In fact, Stanton may be the X-Factor in the series. If he can hit some home runs off righties, Chicago will be in good shape. If not, the Cubs offense may be kept in check.
The Cubs were mid-pack in average, and based on Arizona's handedness, plus the D-Backs defense, it will be hard to expect the Cubs to plate a bunch of hits. Arizona led baseball in zone rating, nearly doubling up the second place Marlins. The outfield defense is particularly impressive, with Quinton Holmes and Greg Allen looking to take home hardware after the year. Fly balls that don't go over the fence will land in an outfielder's glove, a reason why Arizona's fly-ball oriented staff has done so well. It's a special defense that forces opponents to hit homers as doubles and triples die in the outfield.
Chicago didn't pinch hit the entire season so don't expect anything from its bench.
Season Series:
Chicago swept a road series in May when they were surging and Arizona was scuffling, then Arizona won two of three in September when the situations were flipped.
Arizona got nothing from its offense in the first meeting as the Cubs won 3-1 in 13 innings. Francisco Lindor finally broke through with a two-run single off Edubray Ramos to get the Cubs a lead they'd hold on to for the win. Chicago got strong pitching from Jesse Hahn the next day, and the offense produced a 10-run sixth inning leading a blowout 17-3 Cubs win. Freddie Freeman scored four and drove in four as Aaron Blair, Frank Duncan, Reynolds and Jurado were each blown up. Chicago was more merciful in the finale, but still beat up Finnegan, Cosart, Jurado, and Bracho on the way to a 9-3 win. Giancarlo Stanton homered twice.
In September, Arizona's offense didn't get going, but their pitching stabilized. Jurado pitched 3.1 strong relief innings in the opener and the Diamondbacks tagged Kyle Hendricks for six runs before the end of the third in a 6-3 win. The Cubs took the middle game when Alex Bregman hit a two-run single off Dan Reynolds in the eighth inning to break a 4-4 tie. Duncan and Finnegan pitched poorly for Arizona, as Lindor and Wilson each had three hits and scored twice. Arizona won the series with a 2-1 victory in the finale. Yunior Severino homered late against Steven Matz to pin the loss on him despite Matz working 8.1 innings of two-run ball. Chris Archer was strong and Arizona got double plays in the eighth and ninth to hold on.
Key Questions:
Arizona will have the handedness advantage with their pitchers, but most of their relief arms have struggled against the Cubs. Will they continue to struggle or will their platoon advantage win out?
Can Arizona get enough of Chicago's fly balls to land in the park so their defense can do what it does best and flag them down?
Can Chicago's starters go deep into games so the Cubs don't have to use their middle relievers?
Prediction: Matz will dominate a couple of starts and Arizona won't have the juice to win four games against the Cubs righties. Chicago 4-2.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins
Two Seasons ago the Philadelphia Phillies were the upstart, relying on developing prospects, young talent, and accelerated development to take the National League by storm on the way to a World Series appearance. This year, they'll play the juggernaut looking to hold off the young, emerging Miami Marlins, who've already knocked off the defending champions in their quest to make history.
Add in the fact that these two clubs are division rivals and have the best record remaining of any NL team, and this should be a fun series.
Phillies Offense versus Marlins Pitching
The Philadelphia offense was a machine this season, with the club posting the best average and the best on-base percentage in NL history. Only the 2021 champion Washington Nationals scored more runs and had a better OPS or wOBA than this year's Phillies. Part of that is a result of great depth, but part of it is a result of star power with Seth Beer. Philadelphia can't get enough Beer, and opposing pitchers wish to see the Phillies cut off. He led the NL in average at .341 and in RBIs with 137. He clubbed 44 home runs, and put up an OPS that only Bryce Harper in 2017 and 2020 has eclipsed. Beer has joined the pantheon of the immortals, and he just turned 26. He'll be a nightmare for Miami all series.
Beer is joined in the lineup by another member of the 40-homer club in rookie Darick Hall. Hall smashed 42 long balls, drove in 112, and earned an All-Star nod in his rookie campaign. Not an apples-to-apples comparison due to season length, it's still remarkable that until last year, Hall had never had more than 14 home runs in a season in the minors. He had 28 home runs in a good year at Lehigh Valley last year, then exploded into a superstar overnight this year.
With Yordan Alvarez chipping in with 21 home runs in a limited campaign, the Philadelphia Offense doesn't hurt for left-handed power, and the ability to keep lefties in the park will be critical for Miami's chances of winning.
Fortunately for them, they have one break on their side. An injured Mickey Moniak kept the Phillies from advancing in the Wild Card Game last year. He has a badly sprained ankle that Scott Sheridan hasn't been able to heal. Sheridan is Legendary in his ability to treat leg injuries, but if he can't fix up Moniak, it removes an excellent hitter from the Philadelphia offense, and one who is fantastic at getting on base in front of the sluggers.
Philadelphia will still have Max Schrock's .320 average in the two-spot and Andres Gimenez' .351 OBP leading off just in case. Plus they still have Andrew Toles' .320 average, and while Odubel Herrera had a down year this year, he's a year removed from back-to-back seasons with 19 or more homers and an average well over .300.
All this is to say that the Phillies are stacked with power from the left side, and even without Moniak, have a ton of on-base threats from that side as well.
The issue is that all the team's threats are left-handed except Maikel Franco, and Franco surprisingly struggles against left-handed pitching. The Phillies are still an exceptional team against lefties, but outside of Beer, their regulars all perform a little bit worse against left-handed pitching.
This presents opponents with a clear angle of attack—if they have the lefties to take advantage. Miami won't have Daniel Norris early in the series as they needed him for the Wild Card Game. They have Josh Taylor, but while Taylor is a strong arm, he's homer prone against a juggernaut. Philadelphia hit six home runs against him in five starts, for a 2.0 HR/9. He went 0-2 with a 6.46 ERA.
That means the fish will need Archie Bradley and Takahiro Norimoto to hold up against the left-handed armada. Norimoto is Hall's biggest competition for the NL Rookie of the Year Award in a very strong class, but of any team he's faced at least twice, he has the highest ERA against the Phillies with a 5.27 ERA. Norimoto has a ton of guts and a world of guile, but while the Hiroshima Toyo Carp have some strong lineups in the Nippon League, Philadelphia is in a whole different continent both geographically and in metaphorical offensive prowess.
Archie Bradley hasn't pitched very often against the Phillies this year, facing them just three times. He's gone 4 innings, allowing three earned runs in each of his last two starts, though he did pitch a 7-inning, one-run gem early in the year. At least there's some upside with Bradley if he's going well, where he can shut down anyone.
With Buddy Boshers hurt, Miami has two lefties in their pen. One is Aaron Loup who before this year last pitched in the majors back in 2017 when he made one appearance for Toronto. Loup retires lefties pretty well, but the ones he doesn't retire have pretty decent isolated slugging numbers off him.
Dario Alvarez is a weapon. Lefties hit just .168 off him with a .274 slugging mark as he overwhelms lefties. Alvarez will be called upon often in the series, and could be a game-changer out of the pen.
Miami's right-handers are all really trustworthy, aside from the fact that they're righties against Philadelphia. Jacob Barnes is wild, but doesn't yield too many homers, while Drew Steckenrider is wilder, didn't give up many homers this year, and has been pretty tough on lefties the past two seasons. Like Steckenrider, Phil Maton eschewed a home run happy history to keep it in the park this year, and has big strikeout stuff.
Nick Wittgren is the one guy who will give up home runs, but they'll be solo shots as he doesn't walk anybody. Left-handers haven't hit him too hard in his career either, and his fly-ball ways are tailor made for Miami's outfield.
Nick Burdi is the closer and he keeps getting better and better at limiting home runs. He issued just three this season, leading to 31 saves in 33 chances, a 2.85 ERA, and 66 strikeouts in 47.1 innings. Lefties haven't had more than a .714 OPS off him since 2018.
It's a good bullpen that can be counted on against most teams, but Beer will stress the hell out of it in this series.
If Miami limits longballs, their defense is superb. Miami was third in the NL in zone rating, but their outfield was stupendous. Jeren Kendall didn't have Quentin Holmes' defensive season, but he was the next best thing, making over half of all defensive plays deemed unlikely for the average fielder. Trent Clark will likely also be a Gold Glove runner up in left, while Isael Soto is solid in right. Miami's infielders aren't quite as good, but if the pitchers can keep the ball in the park, it won't be easy to string together a significant bunch of extra base hits against this defense.
Philadelphia doesn't have a deep bench if Moniak is out, but Tristan Gray hits well and can play all over the infield, while Andrew Pullin has decent power as a bench bat. Pullin wouldn't provide much defensive value though, which is a big drawback to having him in the lineup.
Marlins Offense versus Phillies Pitching
Miami's offense is mostly geared towards slashing and running, but they also smashed four home runs on the road in the Wild Card Game, two against last season's Cy Young Runner Up. Seven Marlins posted an above average wRC+ highlighting the lineup's depth. They stole 118 bases, which was the third most in the NL. It wasn't the most efficient base-stealing unit as the Marlins were third from the bottom in wSB. However, their base-running was excellent, as the team led the league in base-running runs. They'll steal second and third in bulk, with some outs mixed in, but they'll always get from first-to-third.
Miami will platoon heavily and the end result is an OPS against lefties and righties that's virtually identical. Against righties, Jeren Kendall is in the lineup to provide extra base-stealing and defense, and Bruce Maxwell is in, which improves the defense. Luis Gonzalez also enters, which gives the lineup a bit of pop. When Miami plays a lineup to punish left-handed starters, Donny Sands and Wuilmer Buccera enter, which hurts the defense a bit. The lineup versus right-handers has more speed than the lineup versus left-handers, emphasized by Jeren Kendall's presence.
Kendall is a star against right-handers, and when teaming with righty-crushing Blake Tiberi, and Wilmer Flores, who lacks a platoon split, the middle of the order becomes pretty powerful. The lineup against lefties is a little bit more average-based, with Willi Castro taking on the two-spot, and the addition of Buccera and Matt Duffy. However, that gets mitigated slightly by the fact that the lefty Soto hits for more power against lefties than righties.
Either way, the main takeaway is that Miami's offense is flexibile to counter different pitchers, though the defense drops off slightly against lefty arms.
Philadelphia will throw two lefties at Miami, and it will throw definitely one, but possibly two lefties as well. Madison Bumgarner is the big name, and the player the Phillies gave up a lot for to acquire. He was the AL Cy Young Winner the past two seasons, and aside from two bad starts really, has been a postseason stalwart. He's 7-4 with a 3.48 postseason ERA lifetime, and 6-0 with a 1.77 as a National League pitcher back when San Francisco was a late aughts powerhouse. He hasn't pitched that great this year with a 4.42 ERA, but he's also 16-4. How he pitches this series may swing the verdict on whether or not he's had a successful season.
Adam Conley is scheduled to work Game 2 and probably Game 6. An absolute workhorse, Conley's perpetually making 30 starts, he's allergic to home runs, and he keeps the ball on the ground, coming up with the third best ground ball rate in the league this year. His consistency and durability has allowed him to rack up the 15th most home runs in PBA history, and now he'll take on the team that traded him away. Conley's made three strong starts against Miami already this year and would love a chance to end their season. His allergy to home runs will provide a big test of Miami's contact hitters versus Philadelphia's infield defense.
Franklyn Kilome's only postseason experience was a couple of strong starts with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs in 202, but he's emerged as a big time starter this season, with a team-leading 3.37 ERA, a 12-6 record, and only 18 home runs in 176.1 innings. He also keeps the ball in the park, a trait of Philadelphia's top starters, but not as pressing a factor against a good baserunning team with a good average like Miami.
As a fourth starter, Thomas Eshelman was okay, but doesn't have great stuff and followed up three strong outings against the Marlins with a stinker in his final start. Eshelman gets crushed by lefties and gives up a ton of fly balls, meaning a team with slugging lefties always has a chance to produce some home runs. He strikes out lefties more than he does righties, so he does have the ability to escape some jams, but he also is fourth in the NL with 14 Wild Pitches. For a team like Miami that's middle of the pack in strikeouts, and second in average, hurting yourself and giving up free bases is something that could cost Eshelman.
Philadelphia had the best bullpen in the league as the collective put up a 3.14 ERA. Dan Altivilla was rock solid at closer with a 1.86 ERA, plus 39 saves in 40 chances. In his playoff career, he's pitched 9 scoreless innings. He's as solid as solid can be.
Setting him up, Ryan Buchter had a 2.17 ERA with 99 strikeouts from the left side, while Edgar E. Garcia had a 2.52 ERA and 117 strikeouts from the right side. Each pitcher pitches up in the zone but doesn't really give up a lot of home runs. They strike a ton of hitters out and give up very few hits, which is a decent profile to face Miami.
In the early and middle innings, the Phillies will mix and match six relievers. Ian Krol and Luke Weaver will presumably pitch the early innings as Weaver was demoted from his starting role for the playoffs, and Krol was the only poor reliever this season. However, Elniery Garcia, Tyler DeLoach, and Ryan Helsley each allowed an ERA under 3.00. Garcia, in particular, was a revelation, winning 10 games, pitching to a 2.24 ERA, striking out 108 batters in 96 innings, and walking under 4.7% of opposing hitters. Garcia dominated lefties and righties alike in his first extended run in the majors.
Helsley is a two-pitch pitcher vulnerable to home runs, so he's best served against righties and righties only, but he somehow pitched to a 2.87 ERA despite a negative WAR. He had a good season, but maybe shouldn't be trusted in a major spot. Likewise DeLoach pitched well, but he only pitched 25 big league innings, though he was very strong in the minors. He had a 5.29 ERA last year and a 6.55 ERA the season before, so maybe he shouldn't be trusted in a big spot.
"Bad News" Pavel Staal is also on the club, and he's been bad news for opposing power hitters, reducing his home rate each season and putting up a 3.22 ERA this year. Armed with a fastball, a curveball, and an awful changeup, Staal's curveball has worked like a changeup and allowed the left-hander to pitch better against right-handers over his career. His ground ball rate against righties is higher than lefties, which explains some of the results.
With so many quality relievers, it will be tough for Miami to come back. The Phillies have a number of righties and lefties in their pen to provide balance, and all the relievers have proven themselves except Weaver. Even Krol has a 3.77 career ERA.
Philadelphia's defense is good in the outfield and awful on the infield. However, Moniak made their defense special as he may win a Gold Glove. Without him, Toles is strong in left, but Herrera is sub-par in center, and Beer has a terrific bat. It's not an ideal defense for Miami. On the plus side, Beer's 10 outfield assists are well equipped for Miami's baserunning. It's possible Beer, who leads the league in right field outfield assists, can gun down a baserunner or two.
Miami's bench will be deep and versatile with so many platoon players able to pinch hit.
Season Series:
Philadelphia went 13-6 against Miami on the year, including a sweep during the final series of the year. Miami won two of three in Philadelphia in April, but Philadelphia responded by going into Miami in early May and taking two of three. In July, Philly took two of three at home, then in August, the Philies went into Miami and swept them in a four game set. Miami eeked out a series win in late September in Miami, but Philadelphia took care of business with the home sweep to end the year.
Philadelphia's offense actually wasn't amazing against Miami, averaging 4.5 runs a game. However, Philadelphia really handled Miami's offense, as the Marlins scored two runs or fewer in over half of the contests.
Key Questions:
Can Mickey Moniak play at all? His presence gives Philadelphia a huge edge, but they're vulnerable without him.
Can Bradley pull out a couple of dominant performances? Miami may need him to in order to win the series.
How will Schrock play against such a good defense? If Schrock isn't getting hits and Moniak can't play, Beer may bat with a lot more bases empty situations, tempering his effectiveness?
Prediction: The Marlins have a solid team, but the Phillies have had their number most of the year. Their best weapon in their staff won't be available early, and the Phillies pitchers are good enough to keep Miami from running up the scoreboard. Moniak not playing gives Miami a chance, both with the offensive and defensive dropoff, but the Phillis simply have too much talent. Phillies 4-2