Post by Commissioner Erick on Dec 15, 2019 14:48:47 GMT -5
Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics
The Tampa Bay Rays remade their team and ended up in a division dogfight that didn't get resolved until the final week of the year. The Oakland Athletics kept their team largely together and ended in a division dogfight that didn't get resolved until after the final game of the year. Oakland is happy they won the AL West, and considering Tampa Bay's 0-3 record against the Rangers in the ALDS, they're happy Oakland won the West as well.
Rays Offense versus Athletics Pitching
Tampa Bay had the second best average and on-base percentage in the league, though average power and a lack of speed resulted in the team having the sixth best offense. A lack of Buster Posey and J.P. Crawford will hurt the team's power in the this round as well.
Tampa Bay mixes righties and lefties throughout the lineup so their platoon splits are negligible. Against righties, they'll have Dalton Rone work walks, Jose Altuve slash him around, and rely on Jesus B. Sanchez to get them in with a hit, or Patrick Leonard to drive one over the fence. Sanchez, Leonard, and Christian Yelich are excellent run-producers in the middle of the order.
Questions arise regarding the supporting cast. Willy Adames hits sixth against righties but has a .378 slugging percentage. Until roaring to life in October, Jake Bauers was having a dismal season. Jose Altuve has a .315 OBP and hits second, while Dalton Rone leads off with a .338 slugging mark. There are interesting parts, but it puts a lot of pressure on the heart of the order to produce for them. Josh Bell may find himself in the lineup instead of Altuve, which would make the offense more dynamic.
Oakland hasn't announced what arms will take the hill, but it's an eclectic mix. Jose Berrios is easily the biggest name and is also easily the starter who had the worst year for the team. He had a 4.81 ERA as he was plagued by the home run ball this year. La Maquina, however, has a stellar playoff track record, so he can be called upon to start Game 1, or be used solely in Game 4, the options are wide open.
A.J. Puk was third in the AL in ERA with a 2.87 mark, plus he finished fifth in the AL in strikeouts, and allowed just 0.7 home runs-per-nine. Puk is absolutely brutal on left-handed hitters, as his downward movement with his slider makes him impossible for lefties to elevate. His isolated slugging numbers against lefties are 0.80, which should mean that if he can handle Patrick Leonard and Eugenio Suarez, it will be tough for Tampa Bay to score.
Frankie Montas is a huge wild card. He's had seasons like this one where he keeps the ball in the park and is tough to score on, and he's had years like last year when he gives up 2.1 homers-per-nine and has an ERA of 5.12.
Finally, there's Norge Ruiz, one of the heroes of the AL West Play-In Game. Ruiz is pretty unassuming as a junk-hurler, who doesn't strike hitters out, but doesn’t give up too many home runs. Lefties hit for a high average off him, righties for more power, but nothing obscene. He pitched 6 shutout innings against Tampa Bay on August 26th to kick off a stretch of nine consecutive starts where he's allowed three runs or fewer (two or fewer in eight).
Oakland's bullpen wasn't as dominant this year as seasons past, but it was still the sixth best pen in the league. The defense was pretty bad, so the relief success seemed entirely correlated with how well those relievers strike people out.
Including Reyes Moronta, the five pitchers who struck out at least 10 batters-per-nine innings all have an ERA of 3.94 or lower. The three with fewer than 10 strikeouts per nine innings all have an ERA of 5.06 or higher. Tampa Bay struck out by far the least amount of times in the American League, meaning Oakland's ability to succeed because of their strikeouts won't be easy to accomplish against the Rays, giving Tampa Bay a leg up.
Tampa Bay's biggest defensive weakness is in Center Field, so pitchers who give up a lot of fly balls will be vulnerable to extra base hits. J.B. Wendleken, Jose Berrios, and Frankie Montas can compensate with their exceptional stuff, but former relief pillar Liam Hendricks cannot, a main reason why his ERA has ballooned to 5.40. Against the Rays ability to put the ball in play, Montas, Berrios, and Wendelken are more at risk to underperform.
Tampa Bay has a strong bench. Magneuris Sierra can pinch hit and is a doubles extraordinaire. With Oakland's outfield defense, he's always a threat to find a gap and sprint to second. Corey Seager is another left-handed doubles machine, as is whichever of Josh Bell or Jose Altuve comes off the bench.
Oakland Offense versus Tampa Bay Pitching
Oakland's offense was only tied for eighth in runs scored as the team's entire outfield was hurt for parts of the second half of the season. The club was tied for 11th in home runs, as only Matt Olson and Aristedes Aquino hit over 20 home runs, and neither with an average above .253. It's also a lineup that produced an OPS under .700 against left-handed pitching as even the club's right-handed hitters produced reverse platoon splits.
The team runs the bases very well, as they lead the lead in baserunning runs, but it's still not an offense built to light up the scoreboard. They've scored more than six runs in a game just three times since August 25th.
Meanwhile, they're going up against a staff that struck out the most hitters in the AL and had the second best ERA in the league. They'll throw at least two lefties at Oakland, and both hitters have fantastic stuff. Blake Snell struck out 196 batters this year, a mark he's hit every healthy season of his career. In fact, Snell is seventh all time in strikeouts.
He's joined by Sean Manaea, who has turned into a big-time strikeout pitcher in his own right. Manaea struck out 28% of all opposing hitters this season, going from tantalizing prospect to frustrating to mediocrity, to front-line starter.
Tampa Bay also has Sixto Sanchez, who has taken a leap this year. His changeup has developed to the point where he's a major weapon against lefties and righties alike. It allowed him to put away the home run troubles that plagued him with Philadelphia last year, allowing him to win 12 games with a 3.61 ERA and an All-Star nod this year.
Each of those three have yielded a slightly higher BABIP than the league average, and Oakland is second at offensive BABIP. Their best chance at victory is to make contact and take advantage of Tampa Bay's porous defense. Christian Yelich was particularly bad, but Oakland's batters aren't prone to hitting fly balls to left field. Their righties like to use the whole field, and their lefties like to pull the ball, which may keep them from really punishing Tampa Bay's defensive alignment.
Tampa Bay's bullpen has electric short relievers. Corey Knebel saved 39 games, third in the AL, with 102 strikeouts in 66 innings. The Dragon, Chris Devenski has one of the worst patches of facial hair in the game, but he also has one of the best ERAs at 1.73. Mychal Givens was rescued from Baltimore and struck out 97 hitters in 69.1 innings in thanks to Tampa Bay. Chance Adams walked just 23 and struck out 103 hitters with a 2.63 ERA. Tony Watson held lefties to a .579 OPS, and was a postseason hero for Philadelphia in 2020. Those five arms are incredibly tough to score on, allowing the Rays to shrink the game.
Even Tampa Bay's other relievers bring something to the table. Hansel Robles doesn't have great command and gets hit hard, but he can rack up enough strikeouts in a hurry to compensate. He was banished from Arizona though as a result of his poor postseason in 2021. Rodolfo Martinez is one of the few Rays who gives up a ton of homers, but he also struck out over 30% of hitters this year. The long relievers are problems, but Tampa Bay shouldn't need them.
With Oakland's uninspiring offense, and this cadre of arms, it's hard to expect the A's putting up a ton of runs.
Season Series
Oakland won the season series 4-3. The Athletics won three of four in Tampa in late May when the Rays were scuffling, picking up two one-run wins in the process. The A's handed Knebel his first of only three blown saves in the opener, when a bloop single, a walk, an error, and three grounders that found holes resulted in four runs and a 6-5 comeback win. Bobby Wahl stranded runners on the corners by getting Leonard to fly out to end the game. Leonard got his revenge the next day with two home runs in a 5-1 Rays win.
Oakland again won in their final at bat, when Tyler Wade hit a two-run double in the 12th inning, his fourth hit of the game. With the bases loaded and a 5-4 score, J.B. Wendelken struck out Posey and got Altuve to ground out to close it out. Byron Buxton hit two home runs in the finale to win the series.
In late August, Norge Ruiz went 6 shutout innings as Oakland knocked off Tampa Bay 2-0 in Oakland. Yelich hit a three-run home run of Hendriks in the eighth inning of the middle game giving Tampa Bay a 6-3 win. Tampa won the series when Sixton Sanchez paired with four relievers on a four-hit shutout.
Prediction: It's hard to see Oakland producing much offense against Tampa Bay's pitchers. Oakland should keep things close with its own strong pitching staff, but Tampa Bay will have too much star power. Rays 4-2.
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
The Chicago White Sox once again were an absolute juggernaut this season with the best pitching and best offense. They have the two-time reigning MVP, this season's probably MVP, and a possible Cy Young Award winner. Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays made the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and don't have many well-established stars. Normally, this matchup would be a bloodbath—but Toronto did take six of seven from Chicago in the regular season.
White Sox Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
Chicago led the league in offense for the third season in a row, and would have made it four seasons if not for Houston's outrageous 2019. Andrew Benintendi missed half the season—and still banged 30 home runs and made the top 10 in WAR. Rafael Devers meanwhile tailed off after an outrageous start, but he still led the league in WAR, OPS, and runs. Plus he was second in wOBA, RBIs, and Total Bases. The two stars are outrageously good at what they do.
The fact that they, and most of the lineup, are left handed means Chicago has a stark platoon split against righties and lefties. They're a juggernaut against right-handed pitching, but mortal against lefties. Their five leading home run hitters are left-handed, their four leading players in batting average are too, and most of their bench is too.
The one thing they don't have is that dynamic on-base guy to top the lineup the way they did in the past with Yoan Moncada. Moncada would always be atop the leaderboards in on-base percentage, doubles, and steals, as he lived in scoring position for the stars below. This iteration of Chicago features Will Benson leading off, who is a six-hitter in disguise, and Dansby Swanson hitting second, with his career .436 Postseason OPS. There's a school of thought that Chicago is far more vulnerable this year than ever as a result of that lack of hitting depth.
Consider Brendan McKay led the league in doubles, but behind him in the batting order, Elijah Dilday has started just 124 games the past two years, Tim Anderson has an OBP under .300, Ryan Lilliard is a career .246 hitter average 13 homers in 162 games, Cal Raleigh hit .236, and Corey Ray has had a 102 and a 106 OPS+ the past two seasons. It's certainly potent, but it's not as inevitable an offense as some of the top lineups we've seen in years past.
That being said, it can certainly light up the scoreboard against righties and Toronto's lone left-hander needed to be used in the Wild Card Game. This means that Chicago can feast until Thomas Szapucki catches his breath.
Toronto will throw two righties in the rotation, but at least they're good righties. T. J. Zeuch has developed into a star these past two years, as finished in the top five in ERA, Wins, and Strikeouts. Armed with excellent command, he places the ball where he needs to, and has three excellent secondaries to get hitters out. He excels against both righties and lefties, and really buckles down with runners in scoring position, holding hitters to a .582 OPS this year with men on second or third.
Collin Wiles is another command guy, who doesn't walk hitters, keeps pitches off the sweet spot of bats, and lets the Blue Jays outfield do the rest. Armed with a tremendous changeup, Wiles also lacks platoon splits, and also holds opponents to a low OPS, .573, with men in scoring position.
Toronto's pen is a little more erratic. Alex Speas had a big outing in the Wild Card Game, but he's a high-risk, high-reward pitcher, and Chicago has the big-time hitters to seek out pitches to hit and do damage.
Danny Barnes will move into a setup role. He has a great changeup that should theoretically allow him to hold his own against lefties but his career stats don't bear that out. He's been extremely home run prone until this season, and he's fared poorly in high leverage situations. He'll be joined by Michael Kopech, a converted starter. Kopech is like Speas in that he's a wild arm with tremendous stuf, but the difference is that his stuff may be overwhelmingly good in relief. He closed five of six games successfully in 2020 so there's evidence of him excelling in a short relief role.
Unlike Barnes, Joe Biagini's changeup does allow him to retire lefties, and Eduardo Paredes' big curveball functions similar to a changeup allowing him to hold his own as well. However, Alejandro Chacin and Carson Smith may be too erratic to trust against an offense as potent and patient as Chicago's.
Should Toronto need a long man, Clarke Schmidt should be fine as he whiffed 112 in 117.2 innings. Left-handers hammered him though, so he should only be used as a bridge to the bullpen, not as someone needed for a ton of length.
Chicago doesn't steal as many bases with Moncada gone and Benintendi coming off an injury, but they do run the bases very well. Whoever doesn't start among Dilday, Ray, Anderson, or Benson will be able to provide good power off the bench should Chicago want to pinch hit for Cal Raleigh. Throw in Robert Bell, and Chicago can also pinch run and get speed on the bases if needed.
Toronto will give up fly balls and Chicago will hit them, so outfield defense will be key. Unfortunately for Toronto, Jahmai Jones' injury compromises their defense so much. Luis Alexander Basabe is fine in Left, but Yusniel Diaz is not a good center fielder, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a good right fielder. Not only are the Blue Jays not good at tracking down balls, but they don't have great arms. The Blue Jays were third worst in the league in outfield assists, which will allow Chicago to take extra bases.
Blue Jays Offense versus White Sox Pitching
Toronto's offense depends on controlling the strike zone. Walking, not striking out, and putting pressure on the defense. They only fanned six times against Kansas City in the Wild Card Game, walking three times, and getting a big three run home run from Cavan Biggio to knock off Kansas City.
However, Toronto could only get four runs in that game, and Chicago will throw four starts better than Austin Gomber.
Carlos Martinez had another spectacular season, going 17-1 with a 2.66 ERA, dominating virtually all opponents. He's also had legendary regular season and postseason success in the past. However, his one loss this year came to Toronto, so this may not be as much of a one-sides matchup as one would expect.
Joe Musgrove has good control and a very good changeup to handle both righties and lefties. He's also allowed just 15 home runs, so it'll be hard for the Blue Jays to bang cheap home runs off him. Aaron Nola is a more extreme version of Musgrove, as he never walks anybody, prevents hard contact, and forces opponents to beat him with solo home runs.
Toronto's on-base hitters do better against righties than lefties, so the fact Chicago's right-handers are excellent at limiting walks will make it tough on Toronto's lineup. Chicago's left-handed starter, Carlos Rodon, matches a more extreme blueprint as Musgrove and Martinez. He's fourth in strikeout rate, and third in walk rate among pitchers with 125 innings.
Chicago's bullpen is strong, but its closer is wild. Jimmy Sherfy struck out 76 hitters in 52.2 innings, but he also walked 28 batters and is far better against righties than lefties. That may open the door a crack in the late innings.
Alex Faedo stopped working on his failed changeup, and focused entirely on being a reliever with exceptional success, posting a 3.13 ERA, improving his strikeout rate to 31.2%, and slashing his walk rate to 9%. Like Sherfy, that walk rate is still a bit elevated and he's better against righties. However, he'll be joined in short relief by Dan Jennings. Jennings has limited lefties to a .606 lifetime OPS, and has a 1.31 postseason ERA in 21 career games. He should be able to wash away any left-handed Toronto throws out in the late innings.
Derek Law and Raymelis Rosa each had an ERA under 3, and should be strong in the middle innings. Law has struggled in prior playoffs, and is wilder, but Rosa is just a rookie. Seeing how those two handle the spotlight could be an interesting subplot. Joel Huertas will also get time as a lefty specialist. He's prone to the long ball, but doesn't walk hitters. He may be best used against Reese McGuire, who walks all the time, rather than one of Toronto's lefty sluggers like Rowdy Tellez.
The rest of the White Sox bullpen is comprised of various long men. Andrew Suarez had the best year and is left-handed. Rob Whalen's pitch-to-contact style may be fine against a team like Toronto, while Bo Takahashi and Jae-joon Bae have a little more gas.
Chicago's infield defense is pretty good, but the outfield defense outside of Benson leaves a lot to be desired. Fortunately, Toronto hit the fewest doubles in baseball, so they're not a team that will pressure defenses by splitting the gaps. If Chicago's pitchers keep the ball in the air, they may not give up much damage. If they keep the ball on the ground, the White Sox start four above-average defenders along the infield.
Chicago had some success shutting down the running game with their relief pitchers, but their starters can be run on. That's one advantage the Blue Jays have with their speedy players.
While they haven't had the best seasons, Jake Burger provides a dangerous bat against lefties off the bench, while Kole Enright provides the same against righties. Jonathan Villar is also a competent bat, but may be so rusty, he wouldn't know how to swing it. Villar and Enright have good speed should Toronto need to pinch run.
Season Series
Toronto took six of seven, including the final six.
In late May into early June, Toronto dropped the opener of a three-game set as Musgrove and five relief arms combined to throw a four-hitter. The next day, Danny Barnes and Joe Biagini combined for 2.2 big relief innings and Reese McGuire clubbed a three-run home run off Matt Straham as the Blue Jays won 6-5. The next day, despite Chacin blowing a ninth-inning lead, Toronto took advantage of the lesser arms in Chicago's pen, capped off with a walk off home run by Guerrero for another one-run win, and the series.
The two clubs played again in mid-July and Toronto established itself as a serious playoff contender with a rousing four-game sweep in Chicago. They took advantage of some wildness from Carlos Martinez, and some nice swings by McGuire and Adam Eaton to put four runs off Martinez in the second inning, holding on for a 5-4 win. The next day, five Toronto relievers combined to throw 6.1 perfect innings is a stunning performance, as Toronto beat Chicago 6-2.
In the third game, Thomas Szapucki went 8 innings, allowing two runs, in a 7-3 Blue Jays win. In the finale, Paredes, Barnes, Chacin, and Osuna went 4 innings, not allowing a hit, as Toronto won 8-7.
Prediction: Toronto has done some nice things against Chicago, and they have a strong bullpen and as good a collection of right-handers to keep the White Sox down. That being said, of the four starters going for the White Sox, Musgrove worked 5 shutout innings, Nola didn't face Toronto, Rodon didn't face Toronto, and Martinez had the worst game of his season. It's hard to see Toronto's offense putting up big numbers against the four starters, and the bullpen is deeper now that it was early in the year. Toronto will be more game than expected, but young playoff teams without superstars don't fare well in their first playoff runs. White Sox 4-2
The Tampa Bay Rays remade their team and ended up in a division dogfight that didn't get resolved until the final week of the year. The Oakland Athletics kept their team largely together and ended in a division dogfight that didn't get resolved until after the final game of the year. Oakland is happy they won the AL West, and considering Tampa Bay's 0-3 record against the Rangers in the ALDS, they're happy Oakland won the West as well.
Rays Offense versus Athletics Pitching
Tampa Bay had the second best average and on-base percentage in the league, though average power and a lack of speed resulted in the team having the sixth best offense. A lack of Buster Posey and J.P. Crawford will hurt the team's power in the this round as well.
Tampa Bay mixes righties and lefties throughout the lineup so their platoon splits are negligible. Against righties, they'll have Dalton Rone work walks, Jose Altuve slash him around, and rely on Jesus B. Sanchez to get them in with a hit, or Patrick Leonard to drive one over the fence. Sanchez, Leonard, and Christian Yelich are excellent run-producers in the middle of the order.
Questions arise regarding the supporting cast. Willy Adames hits sixth against righties but has a .378 slugging percentage. Until roaring to life in October, Jake Bauers was having a dismal season. Jose Altuve has a .315 OBP and hits second, while Dalton Rone leads off with a .338 slugging mark. There are interesting parts, but it puts a lot of pressure on the heart of the order to produce for them. Josh Bell may find himself in the lineup instead of Altuve, which would make the offense more dynamic.
Oakland hasn't announced what arms will take the hill, but it's an eclectic mix. Jose Berrios is easily the biggest name and is also easily the starter who had the worst year for the team. He had a 4.81 ERA as he was plagued by the home run ball this year. La Maquina, however, has a stellar playoff track record, so he can be called upon to start Game 1, or be used solely in Game 4, the options are wide open.
A.J. Puk was third in the AL in ERA with a 2.87 mark, plus he finished fifth in the AL in strikeouts, and allowed just 0.7 home runs-per-nine. Puk is absolutely brutal on left-handed hitters, as his downward movement with his slider makes him impossible for lefties to elevate. His isolated slugging numbers against lefties are 0.80, which should mean that if he can handle Patrick Leonard and Eugenio Suarez, it will be tough for Tampa Bay to score.
Frankie Montas is a huge wild card. He's had seasons like this one where he keeps the ball in the park and is tough to score on, and he's had years like last year when he gives up 2.1 homers-per-nine and has an ERA of 5.12.
Finally, there's Norge Ruiz, one of the heroes of the AL West Play-In Game. Ruiz is pretty unassuming as a junk-hurler, who doesn't strike hitters out, but doesn’t give up too many home runs. Lefties hit for a high average off him, righties for more power, but nothing obscene. He pitched 6 shutout innings against Tampa Bay on August 26th to kick off a stretch of nine consecutive starts where he's allowed three runs or fewer (two or fewer in eight).
Oakland's bullpen wasn't as dominant this year as seasons past, but it was still the sixth best pen in the league. The defense was pretty bad, so the relief success seemed entirely correlated with how well those relievers strike people out.
Including Reyes Moronta, the five pitchers who struck out at least 10 batters-per-nine innings all have an ERA of 3.94 or lower. The three with fewer than 10 strikeouts per nine innings all have an ERA of 5.06 or higher. Tampa Bay struck out by far the least amount of times in the American League, meaning Oakland's ability to succeed because of their strikeouts won't be easy to accomplish against the Rays, giving Tampa Bay a leg up.
Tampa Bay's biggest defensive weakness is in Center Field, so pitchers who give up a lot of fly balls will be vulnerable to extra base hits. J.B. Wendleken, Jose Berrios, and Frankie Montas can compensate with their exceptional stuff, but former relief pillar Liam Hendricks cannot, a main reason why his ERA has ballooned to 5.40. Against the Rays ability to put the ball in play, Montas, Berrios, and Wendelken are more at risk to underperform.
Tampa Bay has a strong bench. Magneuris Sierra can pinch hit and is a doubles extraordinaire. With Oakland's outfield defense, he's always a threat to find a gap and sprint to second. Corey Seager is another left-handed doubles machine, as is whichever of Josh Bell or Jose Altuve comes off the bench.
Oakland Offense versus Tampa Bay Pitching
Oakland's offense was only tied for eighth in runs scored as the team's entire outfield was hurt for parts of the second half of the season. The club was tied for 11th in home runs, as only Matt Olson and Aristedes Aquino hit over 20 home runs, and neither with an average above .253. It's also a lineup that produced an OPS under .700 against left-handed pitching as even the club's right-handed hitters produced reverse platoon splits.
The team runs the bases very well, as they lead the lead in baserunning runs, but it's still not an offense built to light up the scoreboard. They've scored more than six runs in a game just three times since August 25th.
Meanwhile, they're going up against a staff that struck out the most hitters in the AL and had the second best ERA in the league. They'll throw at least two lefties at Oakland, and both hitters have fantastic stuff. Blake Snell struck out 196 batters this year, a mark he's hit every healthy season of his career. In fact, Snell is seventh all time in strikeouts.
He's joined by Sean Manaea, who has turned into a big-time strikeout pitcher in his own right. Manaea struck out 28% of all opposing hitters this season, going from tantalizing prospect to frustrating to mediocrity, to front-line starter.
Tampa Bay also has Sixto Sanchez, who has taken a leap this year. His changeup has developed to the point where he's a major weapon against lefties and righties alike. It allowed him to put away the home run troubles that plagued him with Philadelphia last year, allowing him to win 12 games with a 3.61 ERA and an All-Star nod this year.
Each of those three have yielded a slightly higher BABIP than the league average, and Oakland is second at offensive BABIP. Their best chance at victory is to make contact and take advantage of Tampa Bay's porous defense. Christian Yelich was particularly bad, but Oakland's batters aren't prone to hitting fly balls to left field. Their righties like to use the whole field, and their lefties like to pull the ball, which may keep them from really punishing Tampa Bay's defensive alignment.
Tampa Bay's bullpen has electric short relievers. Corey Knebel saved 39 games, third in the AL, with 102 strikeouts in 66 innings. The Dragon, Chris Devenski has one of the worst patches of facial hair in the game, but he also has one of the best ERAs at 1.73. Mychal Givens was rescued from Baltimore and struck out 97 hitters in 69.1 innings in thanks to Tampa Bay. Chance Adams walked just 23 and struck out 103 hitters with a 2.63 ERA. Tony Watson held lefties to a .579 OPS, and was a postseason hero for Philadelphia in 2020. Those five arms are incredibly tough to score on, allowing the Rays to shrink the game.
Even Tampa Bay's other relievers bring something to the table. Hansel Robles doesn't have great command and gets hit hard, but he can rack up enough strikeouts in a hurry to compensate. He was banished from Arizona though as a result of his poor postseason in 2021. Rodolfo Martinez is one of the few Rays who gives up a ton of homers, but he also struck out over 30% of hitters this year. The long relievers are problems, but Tampa Bay shouldn't need them.
With Oakland's uninspiring offense, and this cadre of arms, it's hard to expect the A's putting up a ton of runs.
Season Series
Oakland won the season series 4-3. The Athletics won three of four in Tampa in late May when the Rays were scuffling, picking up two one-run wins in the process. The A's handed Knebel his first of only three blown saves in the opener, when a bloop single, a walk, an error, and three grounders that found holes resulted in four runs and a 6-5 comeback win. Bobby Wahl stranded runners on the corners by getting Leonard to fly out to end the game. Leonard got his revenge the next day with two home runs in a 5-1 Rays win.
Oakland again won in their final at bat, when Tyler Wade hit a two-run double in the 12th inning, his fourth hit of the game. With the bases loaded and a 5-4 score, J.B. Wendelken struck out Posey and got Altuve to ground out to close it out. Byron Buxton hit two home runs in the finale to win the series.
In late August, Norge Ruiz went 6 shutout innings as Oakland knocked off Tampa Bay 2-0 in Oakland. Yelich hit a three-run home run of Hendriks in the eighth inning of the middle game giving Tampa Bay a 6-3 win. Tampa won the series when Sixton Sanchez paired with four relievers on a four-hit shutout.
Prediction: It's hard to see Oakland producing much offense against Tampa Bay's pitchers. Oakland should keep things close with its own strong pitching staff, but Tampa Bay will have too much star power. Rays 4-2.
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
The Chicago White Sox once again were an absolute juggernaut this season with the best pitching and best offense. They have the two-time reigning MVP, this season's probably MVP, and a possible Cy Young Award winner. Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays made the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and don't have many well-established stars. Normally, this matchup would be a bloodbath—but Toronto did take six of seven from Chicago in the regular season.
White Sox Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
Chicago led the league in offense for the third season in a row, and would have made it four seasons if not for Houston's outrageous 2019. Andrew Benintendi missed half the season—and still banged 30 home runs and made the top 10 in WAR. Rafael Devers meanwhile tailed off after an outrageous start, but he still led the league in WAR, OPS, and runs. Plus he was second in wOBA, RBIs, and Total Bases. The two stars are outrageously good at what they do.
The fact that they, and most of the lineup, are left handed means Chicago has a stark platoon split against righties and lefties. They're a juggernaut against right-handed pitching, but mortal against lefties. Their five leading home run hitters are left-handed, their four leading players in batting average are too, and most of their bench is too.
The one thing they don't have is that dynamic on-base guy to top the lineup the way they did in the past with Yoan Moncada. Moncada would always be atop the leaderboards in on-base percentage, doubles, and steals, as he lived in scoring position for the stars below. This iteration of Chicago features Will Benson leading off, who is a six-hitter in disguise, and Dansby Swanson hitting second, with his career .436 Postseason OPS. There's a school of thought that Chicago is far more vulnerable this year than ever as a result of that lack of hitting depth.
Consider Brendan McKay led the league in doubles, but behind him in the batting order, Elijah Dilday has started just 124 games the past two years, Tim Anderson has an OBP under .300, Ryan Lilliard is a career .246 hitter average 13 homers in 162 games, Cal Raleigh hit .236, and Corey Ray has had a 102 and a 106 OPS+ the past two seasons. It's certainly potent, but it's not as inevitable an offense as some of the top lineups we've seen in years past.
That being said, it can certainly light up the scoreboard against righties and Toronto's lone left-hander needed to be used in the Wild Card Game. This means that Chicago can feast until Thomas Szapucki catches his breath.
Toronto will throw two righties in the rotation, but at least they're good righties. T. J. Zeuch has developed into a star these past two years, as finished in the top five in ERA, Wins, and Strikeouts. Armed with excellent command, he places the ball where he needs to, and has three excellent secondaries to get hitters out. He excels against both righties and lefties, and really buckles down with runners in scoring position, holding hitters to a .582 OPS this year with men on second or third.
Collin Wiles is another command guy, who doesn't walk hitters, keeps pitches off the sweet spot of bats, and lets the Blue Jays outfield do the rest. Armed with a tremendous changeup, Wiles also lacks platoon splits, and also holds opponents to a low OPS, .573, with men in scoring position.
Toronto's pen is a little more erratic. Alex Speas had a big outing in the Wild Card Game, but he's a high-risk, high-reward pitcher, and Chicago has the big-time hitters to seek out pitches to hit and do damage.
Danny Barnes will move into a setup role. He has a great changeup that should theoretically allow him to hold his own against lefties but his career stats don't bear that out. He's been extremely home run prone until this season, and he's fared poorly in high leverage situations. He'll be joined by Michael Kopech, a converted starter. Kopech is like Speas in that he's a wild arm with tremendous stuf, but the difference is that his stuff may be overwhelmingly good in relief. He closed five of six games successfully in 2020 so there's evidence of him excelling in a short relief role.
Unlike Barnes, Joe Biagini's changeup does allow him to retire lefties, and Eduardo Paredes' big curveball functions similar to a changeup allowing him to hold his own as well. However, Alejandro Chacin and Carson Smith may be too erratic to trust against an offense as potent and patient as Chicago's.
Should Toronto need a long man, Clarke Schmidt should be fine as he whiffed 112 in 117.2 innings. Left-handers hammered him though, so he should only be used as a bridge to the bullpen, not as someone needed for a ton of length.
Chicago doesn't steal as many bases with Moncada gone and Benintendi coming off an injury, but they do run the bases very well. Whoever doesn't start among Dilday, Ray, Anderson, or Benson will be able to provide good power off the bench should Chicago want to pinch hit for Cal Raleigh. Throw in Robert Bell, and Chicago can also pinch run and get speed on the bases if needed.
Toronto will give up fly balls and Chicago will hit them, so outfield defense will be key. Unfortunately for Toronto, Jahmai Jones' injury compromises their defense so much. Luis Alexander Basabe is fine in Left, but Yusniel Diaz is not a good center fielder, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a good right fielder. Not only are the Blue Jays not good at tracking down balls, but they don't have great arms. The Blue Jays were third worst in the league in outfield assists, which will allow Chicago to take extra bases.
Blue Jays Offense versus White Sox Pitching
Toronto's offense depends on controlling the strike zone. Walking, not striking out, and putting pressure on the defense. They only fanned six times against Kansas City in the Wild Card Game, walking three times, and getting a big three run home run from Cavan Biggio to knock off Kansas City.
However, Toronto could only get four runs in that game, and Chicago will throw four starts better than Austin Gomber.
Carlos Martinez had another spectacular season, going 17-1 with a 2.66 ERA, dominating virtually all opponents. He's also had legendary regular season and postseason success in the past. However, his one loss this year came to Toronto, so this may not be as much of a one-sides matchup as one would expect.
Joe Musgrove has good control and a very good changeup to handle both righties and lefties. He's also allowed just 15 home runs, so it'll be hard for the Blue Jays to bang cheap home runs off him. Aaron Nola is a more extreme version of Musgrove, as he never walks anybody, prevents hard contact, and forces opponents to beat him with solo home runs.
Toronto's on-base hitters do better against righties than lefties, so the fact Chicago's right-handers are excellent at limiting walks will make it tough on Toronto's lineup. Chicago's left-handed starter, Carlos Rodon, matches a more extreme blueprint as Musgrove and Martinez. He's fourth in strikeout rate, and third in walk rate among pitchers with 125 innings.
Chicago's bullpen is strong, but its closer is wild. Jimmy Sherfy struck out 76 hitters in 52.2 innings, but he also walked 28 batters and is far better against righties than lefties. That may open the door a crack in the late innings.
Alex Faedo stopped working on his failed changeup, and focused entirely on being a reliever with exceptional success, posting a 3.13 ERA, improving his strikeout rate to 31.2%, and slashing his walk rate to 9%. Like Sherfy, that walk rate is still a bit elevated and he's better against righties. However, he'll be joined in short relief by Dan Jennings. Jennings has limited lefties to a .606 lifetime OPS, and has a 1.31 postseason ERA in 21 career games. He should be able to wash away any left-handed Toronto throws out in the late innings.
Derek Law and Raymelis Rosa each had an ERA under 3, and should be strong in the middle innings. Law has struggled in prior playoffs, and is wilder, but Rosa is just a rookie. Seeing how those two handle the spotlight could be an interesting subplot. Joel Huertas will also get time as a lefty specialist. He's prone to the long ball, but doesn't walk hitters. He may be best used against Reese McGuire, who walks all the time, rather than one of Toronto's lefty sluggers like Rowdy Tellez.
The rest of the White Sox bullpen is comprised of various long men. Andrew Suarez had the best year and is left-handed. Rob Whalen's pitch-to-contact style may be fine against a team like Toronto, while Bo Takahashi and Jae-joon Bae have a little more gas.
Chicago's infield defense is pretty good, but the outfield defense outside of Benson leaves a lot to be desired. Fortunately, Toronto hit the fewest doubles in baseball, so they're not a team that will pressure defenses by splitting the gaps. If Chicago's pitchers keep the ball in the air, they may not give up much damage. If they keep the ball on the ground, the White Sox start four above-average defenders along the infield.
Chicago had some success shutting down the running game with their relief pitchers, but their starters can be run on. That's one advantage the Blue Jays have with their speedy players.
While they haven't had the best seasons, Jake Burger provides a dangerous bat against lefties off the bench, while Kole Enright provides the same against righties. Jonathan Villar is also a competent bat, but may be so rusty, he wouldn't know how to swing it. Villar and Enright have good speed should Toronto need to pinch run.
Season Series
Toronto took six of seven, including the final six.
In late May into early June, Toronto dropped the opener of a three-game set as Musgrove and five relief arms combined to throw a four-hitter. The next day, Danny Barnes and Joe Biagini combined for 2.2 big relief innings and Reese McGuire clubbed a three-run home run off Matt Straham as the Blue Jays won 6-5. The next day, despite Chacin blowing a ninth-inning lead, Toronto took advantage of the lesser arms in Chicago's pen, capped off with a walk off home run by Guerrero for another one-run win, and the series.
The two clubs played again in mid-July and Toronto established itself as a serious playoff contender with a rousing four-game sweep in Chicago. They took advantage of some wildness from Carlos Martinez, and some nice swings by McGuire and Adam Eaton to put four runs off Martinez in the second inning, holding on for a 5-4 win. The next day, five Toronto relievers combined to throw 6.1 perfect innings is a stunning performance, as Toronto beat Chicago 6-2.
In the third game, Thomas Szapucki went 8 innings, allowing two runs, in a 7-3 Blue Jays win. In the finale, Paredes, Barnes, Chacin, and Osuna went 4 innings, not allowing a hit, as Toronto won 8-7.
Prediction: Toronto has done some nice things against Chicago, and they have a strong bullpen and as good a collection of right-handers to keep the White Sox down. That being said, of the four starters going for the White Sox, Musgrove worked 5 shutout innings, Nola didn't face Toronto, Rodon didn't face Toronto, and Martinez had the worst game of his season. It's hard to see Toronto's offense putting up big numbers against the four starters, and the bullpen is deeper now that it was early in the year. Toronto will be more game than expected, but young playoff teams without superstars don't fare well in their first playoff runs. White Sox 4-2