Post by Commissioner Erick on Dec 18, 2019 5:34:21 GMT -5
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays made announced themselves as a championship contender with a stunning takedown of the AL's best regular season team, the Chicago White Sox. However, the series win cost them a number of pitchers they'd need against a Tampa Bay Rays team that put up six runs a game in the ALDS. It'll be a division rival showdown as each team plays in its first ever ALCS.
Rays Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
Tampa Bay's balanced offense rejects platoon splits, so handedness won't faze them in this round. The Rays were terrific in batting average during the regular season, a trend that continued in the ALDS. Only two players hit below .240 and only three hit below .261. Interestingly enough two of those three players may not be in the lineup going forward. Chad Spanberger only hit .208, though he did have several big hits. With Buster Posey back, Spanberger will move to the bench as Tampa Bay gets a better hitter in the lineup. Also Jake Bauers struggled to a .240 average during the ALDS. He's dealing with an ear infection that may cause Tampa to roll with Magneuris Sierra instead.
Aside from those question marks, the Rays are rolling. Patrick Leonard hit like a star in the ALDS with a .370 average and four RBIs. Eugenio Suarez also came up big in the bottom of the order with a .320 average, two home runs, and seven driven in. He's producing so far after disappointing playoff stints in 2019 and 2021 with the White Sox and Rangers respectively.
The Rays, as a team, also showed how tough they are to strike out. They hit .286 during the ALDS with a 19.8 percent strikeout rate. They'll continue to put pressure on defenses with their fantastic league-leading ability to not strike out and hit for a big average.
They'll take on a Blue Jays team that shut down a terrific offense, but is also missing several arms. Collin Wiles is out for the rest of the postseason and Clarke Schmidt is dealing with a strained oblique. T.J. Zeuch and Thomas Szapucki will get the ball, but it's a mystery who Toronto will turn to for a third option. Michael Kopech had a great Game 5 for Toronto, but struggled badly in Game 2, and wasn't great in Game 4. He may be Toronto's best healthy option, though he relies on overwhelming stuff, something that won't play well with Tampa Bay's ability to make contact.
Zeuch had a good series against Chicago, but isn't a pitcher who goes deep in games. Still, he was able to shut down the White Sox, a more dangerous offense than Tampa Bay. Szapucki dominated Chicago, though that lineup is a little more vulnerable to left-handers than Tampa Bay's offense. Neither Szapucki, nor Zeuch has allowed more than two runs in a start against the Rays this year.
Out of the bullpen, Alex Speas and Alejandro Chacin both proved themselves to be very wild and unreliable against the White Sox in the ALDS. Most of the rest of Toronto's bullpen isn't as dependent on pure stuff, and those pitchers had good showings against Chicago.
Joe Biagini saved all four wins and didn't allow a run in a dominant performance. He was excellent in 2017 as well, and now has a 0.69 lifetime postseason ERA. Danny Barnes struck out six White Sox in 4.1 innings, allowing two runs, but being reliable overall. If Toronto can get to Barnes and Biagini, they should be able to hold on and close games out.
The Blue Jays' defense was strong in the regular season and was outstanding in the playoffs as well. Toronto only committed a single error in the ALDS, not making any self-inflicted mistakes to back up their pitchers.
Tampa Bay's bench is strong as Jose Altuve has a good average and some power from both sides of the plate. Corey Seager is also a good bat against righties, and whoever doesn't start among Sierra or Bauers can bang out doubles. It's a bench that's susceptible to left-handed pitching, but Toronto only has one lefty in their entire staff.
Blue Jays Offense versus Rays Pitching
Toronto's offense was better against righties than lefties in the regular season, but they really produced against Carlos Rodon in the ALDS. In fact, the better pitches in the White Sox staff, aside from Rodon, all handled Toronto reasonably well. The lesser pitchers or inexperienced arms were all hit hard.
If Toronto's offense depends on the quality of the opponent, they'll be in trouble against a Rays staff that can be dominant. Tampa Bay's four starters were dominant in the ALDS, and Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, and Sixto Sanchez were all terrific in the regular season. All three had an ERA under 4, and all three struck out more than a batter an inning.
Toronto doesn't strike out much and is strong at drawing walks. Manaea and Sanchez don't walk hitters either, so they should be fine if the Blue Jays try to turn the game into a BABIP contest. Snell, however, is far wilder. This past season was his first where he didn't walk 10% of hitters, as he walked 9.27% of opponents. A hitter like Logan Warmoth may be able to wait out Snell's curveballs and get on base for some powerful righties.
Corey Knebel was terrific in the ALDS, but the rest of Tampa Bay's pen really struggled. Chris Devenski, Chance Adams, and Mychal Givens had strong regular seasons, but each struggled in the first round. If Tampa Bay's starters can't go deep, the Blue Jays may find Tampa Bay's bullpen vulnerable.
Toronto's power hitters produced against Chicago in a big way, clubbing 11 home runs. Four players hit multiple bombs, with Luis Alexander Basabe cranking three home runs. Only three players had an on-base percentage under .300—one was Yusniel Diaz who homered twice, and another was Cavan Biggio, star of the Wild Card Game.
Toronto's offense continues to surprise and impress, while Tampa Bay has top-tier pitching talent, making for a tantalizing matchup.
Season Series
Tampa Bay won the season series 11-8, but they were tied until the last week of the season when the Rays swept the Blue Jays at home to secure the AL East.
Toronto never scored more than six runs in any game against Tampa Bay this year, averaging just 3.3 runs per game. Tampa Bay's offense wasn't great either, but did show more top-end explosion. For Tampa Bay's offense, Manaea worked to a 4.72 ERA, so Toronto showed an ability to hit him. Sanchez had a 2.00 ERA, while Snell had a 2.08 ERA though. Devenski was also terrific in relief, with a 0.93 ERA out of the pen.
For Toronto, Zeuch and Szapucki were tremendous, going 29.1 innings combined, allowing only six runs combined. Sam Dyson may get dusted off for the series, as he allowed a 0.87 ERA to the Rays. His lack of stuff led him to be deployed sparingly against Chicago, but his groundball skills and Tampa Bay's lack of extreme power play more to Dyson's strengths. Outside of Biagini, the rest of Toronto's bullpen really suffered against the Rays.
Yusniel Diaz was the only Blue Jays hitter to hit for more than a .783 OPS, while Tampa Bay had more production against the Jays. Christian Yelich hit .350 with four home runs and 14 RBIs. Meanwhile, Eugenio Suarez also hit four home runs and Jake Bauers also had 14 RBIs.
Prediction: Two excellent rotations will limit the offense, but in the end, Toronto's lack of pitching depth will hurt them. Any suboptimal arm will be magnified, and Toronto having to turn to a pitcher outside of Szapucki and Zeuch will cost them the series in a low-scoring affair. Rays in Seven
The Toronto Blue Jays made announced themselves as a championship contender with a stunning takedown of the AL's best regular season team, the Chicago White Sox. However, the series win cost them a number of pitchers they'd need against a Tampa Bay Rays team that put up six runs a game in the ALDS. It'll be a division rival showdown as each team plays in its first ever ALCS.
Rays Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
Tampa Bay's balanced offense rejects platoon splits, so handedness won't faze them in this round. The Rays were terrific in batting average during the regular season, a trend that continued in the ALDS. Only two players hit below .240 and only three hit below .261. Interestingly enough two of those three players may not be in the lineup going forward. Chad Spanberger only hit .208, though he did have several big hits. With Buster Posey back, Spanberger will move to the bench as Tampa Bay gets a better hitter in the lineup. Also Jake Bauers struggled to a .240 average during the ALDS. He's dealing with an ear infection that may cause Tampa to roll with Magneuris Sierra instead.
Aside from those question marks, the Rays are rolling. Patrick Leonard hit like a star in the ALDS with a .370 average and four RBIs. Eugenio Suarez also came up big in the bottom of the order with a .320 average, two home runs, and seven driven in. He's producing so far after disappointing playoff stints in 2019 and 2021 with the White Sox and Rangers respectively.
The Rays, as a team, also showed how tough they are to strike out. They hit .286 during the ALDS with a 19.8 percent strikeout rate. They'll continue to put pressure on defenses with their fantastic league-leading ability to not strike out and hit for a big average.
They'll take on a Blue Jays team that shut down a terrific offense, but is also missing several arms. Collin Wiles is out for the rest of the postseason and Clarke Schmidt is dealing with a strained oblique. T.J. Zeuch and Thomas Szapucki will get the ball, but it's a mystery who Toronto will turn to for a third option. Michael Kopech had a great Game 5 for Toronto, but struggled badly in Game 2, and wasn't great in Game 4. He may be Toronto's best healthy option, though he relies on overwhelming stuff, something that won't play well with Tampa Bay's ability to make contact.
Zeuch had a good series against Chicago, but isn't a pitcher who goes deep in games. Still, he was able to shut down the White Sox, a more dangerous offense than Tampa Bay. Szapucki dominated Chicago, though that lineup is a little more vulnerable to left-handers than Tampa Bay's offense. Neither Szapucki, nor Zeuch has allowed more than two runs in a start against the Rays this year.
Out of the bullpen, Alex Speas and Alejandro Chacin both proved themselves to be very wild and unreliable against the White Sox in the ALDS. Most of the rest of Toronto's bullpen isn't as dependent on pure stuff, and those pitchers had good showings against Chicago.
Joe Biagini saved all four wins and didn't allow a run in a dominant performance. He was excellent in 2017 as well, and now has a 0.69 lifetime postseason ERA. Danny Barnes struck out six White Sox in 4.1 innings, allowing two runs, but being reliable overall. If Toronto can get to Barnes and Biagini, they should be able to hold on and close games out.
The Blue Jays' defense was strong in the regular season and was outstanding in the playoffs as well. Toronto only committed a single error in the ALDS, not making any self-inflicted mistakes to back up their pitchers.
Tampa Bay's bench is strong as Jose Altuve has a good average and some power from both sides of the plate. Corey Seager is also a good bat against righties, and whoever doesn't start among Sierra or Bauers can bang out doubles. It's a bench that's susceptible to left-handed pitching, but Toronto only has one lefty in their entire staff.
Blue Jays Offense versus Rays Pitching
Toronto's offense was better against righties than lefties in the regular season, but they really produced against Carlos Rodon in the ALDS. In fact, the better pitches in the White Sox staff, aside from Rodon, all handled Toronto reasonably well. The lesser pitchers or inexperienced arms were all hit hard.
If Toronto's offense depends on the quality of the opponent, they'll be in trouble against a Rays staff that can be dominant. Tampa Bay's four starters were dominant in the ALDS, and Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, and Sixto Sanchez were all terrific in the regular season. All three had an ERA under 4, and all three struck out more than a batter an inning.
Toronto doesn't strike out much and is strong at drawing walks. Manaea and Sanchez don't walk hitters either, so they should be fine if the Blue Jays try to turn the game into a BABIP contest. Snell, however, is far wilder. This past season was his first where he didn't walk 10% of hitters, as he walked 9.27% of opponents. A hitter like Logan Warmoth may be able to wait out Snell's curveballs and get on base for some powerful righties.
Corey Knebel was terrific in the ALDS, but the rest of Tampa Bay's pen really struggled. Chris Devenski, Chance Adams, and Mychal Givens had strong regular seasons, but each struggled in the first round. If Tampa Bay's starters can't go deep, the Blue Jays may find Tampa Bay's bullpen vulnerable.
Toronto's power hitters produced against Chicago in a big way, clubbing 11 home runs. Four players hit multiple bombs, with Luis Alexander Basabe cranking three home runs. Only three players had an on-base percentage under .300—one was Yusniel Diaz who homered twice, and another was Cavan Biggio, star of the Wild Card Game.
Toronto's offense continues to surprise and impress, while Tampa Bay has top-tier pitching talent, making for a tantalizing matchup.
Season Series
Tampa Bay won the season series 11-8, but they were tied until the last week of the season when the Rays swept the Blue Jays at home to secure the AL East.
Toronto never scored more than six runs in any game against Tampa Bay this year, averaging just 3.3 runs per game. Tampa Bay's offense wasn't great either, but did show more top-end explosion. For Tampa Bay's offense, Manaea worked to a 4.72 ERA, so Toronto showed an ability to hit him. Sanchez had a 2.00 ERA, while Snell had a 2.08 ERA though. Devenski was also terrific in relief, with a 0.93 ERA out of the pen.
For Toronto, Zeuch and Szapucki were tremendous, going 29.1 innings combined, allowing only six runs combined. Sam Dyson may get dusted off for the series, as he allowed a 0.87 ERA to the Rays. His lack of stuff led him to be deployed sparingly against Chicago, but his groundball skills and Tampa Bay's lack of extreme power play more to Dyson's strengths. Outside of Biagini, the rest of Toronto's bullpen really suffered against the Rays.
Yusniel Diaz was the only Blue Jays hitter to hit for more than a .783 OPS, while Tampa Bay had more production against the Jays. Christian Yelich hit .350 with four home runs and 14 RBIs. Meanwhile, Eugenio Suarez also hit four home runs and Jake Bauers also had 14 RBIs.
Prediction: Two excellent rotations will limit the offense, but in the end, Toronto's lack of pitching depth will hurt them. Any suboptimal arm will be magnified, and Toronto having to turn to a pitcher outside of Szapucki and Zeuch will cost them the series in a low-scoring affair. Rays in Seven