Post by Commissioner Erick on Feb 15, 2020 19:27:40 GMT -5
After an exciting 2022 that saw four teams finish within two games of one another, and the top two teams ending in a tie, 2023 may not be as close. The Dodgers appear rejuvenated under new GM Ben Vincent, and with new management, more talent, and a new desire to spend money, they're back in the saddle of the NL West. That being said, Arizona is the defending champion and proved in 2022 that any team that underestimates them could meet disaster. The Giants tied for the NL West crown last year, and the Rockies are a perennial playoff contender.
1) Los Angeles Dodgers
2022: 86-76, 3rd Place NL West
Who They Were: The Dodgers suffered a number of devastating pitching injuries and didn't spend money to acquire another bat. As a result, their pitching was excellent—second in the NL in starter's ERA—but wasn't dominant. Worse, their position players were a disappointing eighth in runs scored, and they had the worst zone rating in the NL.
Offseason Review: The Dodgers are projected to spend $33 million more on players this season than in 2022. Eduardo Rodriguez is on the team to had more high-end pitching talent, giving the team a deep, talented rotation. Alex Bregman and Jeren Kendall provide the two-way talent Los Angeles desperately needed last year, and Chris Okey replaces Rafael Marchan as a power and defense oriented catcher. The Dodgers lost reasonably effective swingman Victor Rodriguez and useful lefty Adam Liberatore, so their depth in the bullpen is a little more vulnerable this year. They also lost Cody Bellinger, Juremi Profar, and Michael de Leon from a disappointing offense, which should boost the team by default.
On the Farm: After a few years without a very developed farm system, Los Angeles has some strong prospects in their pipeline. Tillman Corriga is a good looking pitching prospect in the Dodgers' international amateur complex, while closer to home, Rebel Ceja looks like an ace in the making. The two arms still need a lot of development time, but Second Baseman Mike Becker has a quick bat and may be ready as soon as next year.
Best Case Scenario: The Dodgers dominating rotation leads the team to a championship.
Worst Case Scenario: It's hard to see the Dodgers winning fewer than 85 games, but the offense can underachieve again, and a tough NL could leave them missing the playoffs.
Key Questions: Jurrickson Profar's slugging percentage really dipped last year. Do you think he's still a championship caliber hitter?
You signed Alex Bregman and have played him at First Base. After his season last year, do you think he has the bat for First Base?
2) Arizona Diamondbacks
2022: 88-75, NL West Champions Defeated Chicago Cubs 4-1 in NLDS. Defeated Philadelphia 4-3 in NLCS. Defeated Toronto 4-2 in World Series.
Who They Were: That’s easy, they were World Series champions. But getting there wasn’t easy. Coming off a 93-70 record in 2021, the Diamondbacks were expected to be good and once again battle the Los Angeles Dodgers for the top spot in the National League West. But things didn’t go as planned for Arizona. They struggled for large portions of the season, hanging around the division lead but never quite able to elbow through the Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies and lay claim to it. In fact, heading into the final weeks of the season, it looked like the Diamondbacks might run out of time and luck. But after what would become emblematic of the team during their playoff run, they just wouldn’t allow themselves to be beaten.
When the dust settled, Arizona staged an epic comeback against the Giants in a play-in game to grab the National League West crown and a second-straight playoff appearance. And as a cheering nation watched, jaws agape and stunned looks upon their faces, the Little Team That Could eventually topped the Toronto Blue Jays in an unforgettable World Series. Word is the celebration parade is still barreling down Mill Avenue in Phoenix with throngs of sunburned Diamondbacks fans refusing to go home.
Despite their success, though, neither Arizona’s offense nor its pitching were particularly impressive. The Diamondbacks were among the worst in the National League in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, wOBA, wRC, and hits. In fact, they ranked in the bottom half of the league in every major batting category except home runs, where they finished seventh.
That’s not to say Arizona didn’t have some standout performers. RF Greg Allen contributed 5.7 WAR and led the team in most offensive categories, while 2B Isan Diaz pitched in 3.1 WAR and newcomer Quentin Holmes put up 4.1 WAR and 40 doubles, more than enough to net him third-place in the National League Rookie of the Year voting. And while the PBA’s second-ranked overall prospect, 21-year old 3B Juan Gestoso, didn’t force his way onto the major league roster until mid-season, he gave fans a glimpse of his dazzling future during the Diamondback’s incredible playoff run, snatching up MVP trophies in both the National Leagues Championship Series and World Series.
While the Diamondbacks pitching was a bit more distinguished than their hitting, it still was at or below league average in most categories, including FIP (11th), WAR (11th), quality starts (10th), strikeouts (9th), and strikeout/walk ratio (9th). Despite this, the Arizona pitching staff finished third in wins, second in saves, and third in holds.
Staff ace Marco Gonzales rebounded to have a career year, with a 3.31 FIP, 202 strikeouts, 204.1 innings pitched, and 5.2 WAR. And while Gonzales was far and away the best Diamondbacks hurler, Chris Archer, Aaron Blair, and Jake Odorizzi were all effective.
Like the Diamondback’s rotation, their pen wasn’t flashy but it did the job. Closer Silvino Bracho netted 41 saves despite a 4.00 FIP, and relievers Ariel Jurado, Edubray Ramos, Jake Cosart, and Frank Duncan were all solid and provided dependable help out of the bullpen.
Offseason Review: Arizona added several players over the offseason, including veteran infielder Matt Duffy, glove-first catcher Bruce Maxwell, and starters Anthony DeSclafani and Chad Bettis. GM Arlo Zimmerman’s biggest offseason move was trading 29-year old Gold Glove outfielder and offensive cornerstone Greg Allen to the Cincinnati Reds for RF Alex Destino and draft picks. Although Destino is intriguing, he has yet to establish himself as an impact player and spent a large portion of the year as a 27-year old outfielder with the Reds AAA affiliate. While Destino has the tools to excel in the majors, as evidenced by his 2021 campaign with the Reds, its was clearly a forward-looking trade whose true impact won’t be known for years.
On the Farm: The Diamondbacks currently have the PBA’s 20th ranked farm system featuring some interesting prospects including starters Ian Filo, a live-armed righthander with a blazing fastball, and Juan Alvarado, a power pitcher with good control and a promising assortment of pitches. While the system took a hit when Gestoso graduated to the majors, it still sports several young hitters who could make an impact in Arizona. Juan Gil, a light-hitting shortstop with a Gold Glove future, and Cal Conley, another slap-hitting defensive wiz who looks equally comfortable at shortstop or second base, are only two of the young bats that could help the Diamondbacks to another World Series down the road.
Best Case Scenario: A division title and third-straight playoff appearance. Arizona has proven it’s a well-rounded team with a knack for winning games. While Allen’s loss stings, his production could be replaced by improvement from young stars Gestoso and Holmes combined with a decent year from Destino. They ran the board last year, and there’s no reason to believe they can’t do it again in 2023.
Worst Case Scenario: Absent a frenzied fall run and an improbable late inning comeback in the National League West play-in game (really, I’m not bitter, I promise), Arizona wouldn’t have made the playoffs let alone won the World Series. By many measures they were a mediocre team. Every team in the National League West has improved since last season, including the already-formidable Dodgers. If Arizona’s young stars regress or their thin rotation suffers any injuries, there may not be enough magic left for a repeat playoff appearance.
Key Questions: Allen was a huge contributor last year, what led you to trade him to Cincinnati?
Do you think you did enough over the offseason to upgrade your offense and pitching, or are you relying on improvement from your young stars like Gestoso and Holmes to further solidify your team?
Gestoso looks like an amazing player, how good can he be and what current or former PBA player would you compare him to right now?
3) Colorado Rockies
2022: 85-77. 4th Place NL West
Who They Were: It’s a testament to the strength and parity of the National League West that a team as talented as the Rockies could finish fourth in the division last year, albeit only 2.5 games behind the division winner. And it doesn’t appear this year will be any easier. Colorado is synonymous with hitting and 2022 was unsurprisingly a strong year for the Rockies offense. While Colorado finished in the middle of the pack in batting average and on-base percentage, they were near the top in every other category. They led the National League in home runs, racking up 50 more taters than the Phillies powerhouse offense, and finishing in the top-3 in RBI’s, runs, doubles, wRC, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging percentage. It was a dangerous group that routinely pulverized opposing pitching, especially at Coors Field. Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado both topped 40 home runs for the year, and a nigh-unbelievable eleven hitters notched double-digits in dingers during 2022. It was an offense that continuously pressured opposing pitchers, and it showed with 792 runs scored last season.
It’s often hard to judge Colorado pitchers by the same metrics used for other staffs. Playing half your games at 5,200 feet above sea level tends to distort your numbers a bit. Despite that, the Rockies pitching was solid last year by any metric. They were roughly league average in quality stats, FIP, WAR, walks allowed, and near the top of the league in strikeouts and WAR. Michael Fulmer was everything we’ve come to expect from the Colorado ace. He led the league with 219 innings pitched and 233 strikeouts, threw 19 quality starts, generated 6.7 WAR, and registered a 68 FIP-. Those are amazing numbers for any pitcher, but they are just staggering for a member of the Rockies staff.
While Fulmer was the best of the bunch, he wasn’t the only standout. Righty Riley Pint chipped in 3.8 WAR with his lethal combination of high-octane fastball and swing-and-miss slider. And while neither Kevin Horney nor Patrick Corbin performed quite at that level, they were both workmanlike starters.
The bullpen on the other hand wasn’t as impressive. Jonathan Holder had a nice season, tossing 86 innings with a 3.83 FIP, but aging closer Greg “Dirty South” Holland struggled with his control and continued to see his once-blistering fastball lose velocity. While he managed to notch a career high 36 saves, he also lost 12 games and allowed an eye-popping 71.4% of inherited runners to score.
Offseason Review: General Manager Erick Blasco made some aggressive moves over the offseason to address Colorado’s bullpen woes. 2022 National League Reliever of the Year, 32-year old Ken Giles, was signed to a three-year deal and handed the closer’s role. Giles is a premier pitcher, although with only a 36.5% ground-out rate and a tendency to groove a pitch at inopportune times, he may need to make some adjustments to succeed at Coors Field.
Giles wasn’t the only bullpen addition, though. The Rockies added left-hander Felipe Rivero, veteran Adam Ottavino, and Rule 5 draftee Juan Adame. And to top it off, they also nabbed starter Jesse Hahn, a perfect fit for Coors Field with a 50% ground-out rate and a nasty curve with a downward plane he throws for strikes on any count. While Blasco’s focus was clearly on improving Colorado’s bullpen, he re-acquired aging outfielder Steven Souza Jr.
On the Farm: Colorado has the 15th ranked minor league system in the PBA. It’s heavy on young hitters, but with a handful of highly-promising arms. Perhaps the best of the group is Adame, a Rule 5 pick from the Cardinals. He’s the 21st overall PBA prospect with three quality pitches and a strong desire to improve. He does tend to struggle with the long ball, though, so the jury’s still out on whether Colorado can keep him on the roster all season. Another great pitcher who looks nearly ready for the show is righthander Eric Pardinho. He tops out at 100 mph and could end up with one of the best fastballs in the PBA. Among the Rockies many hitting prospects, perhaps the most promising is 19-year old 1B Juan Marrufo. A 2021 first-round pick, Marrufo has shown a nice power stroke in the minors along with top-tier contact skills. His pitch recognition still needs some work, but he could develop into a cornerstone bat for Colorado in the next few years.
Best Case Scenario: Colorado addressed its biggest weakness over the offseason and should have a formidable bullpen in 2023. Their hitting was never in question and with Fulmer and Pint atop the rotation, they should continue to win games. Not only could the Rockies take the National League West, possibly in convincing fashion, they could also make a strong run in the playoffs.
Worst Case Scenario: Its difficult to see Colorado having a poor season. They’re too strong in too many areas. But they have the PBA’s oldest lineup (31.3 years) and pitching staff (31.5 years), and with age comes injuries and performance problems (not the kind a little blue pill can fix). While most of Colorado’s key players are still several years away from AARP membership, a few injuries could derail their season and lead to another finish near the bottom of the division.
Key Questions: You have the oldest team in the PBA, do you feel you have enough depth to address any injuries and how concerned are you that your window to compete could be closing?
Coors Field is a tough place for pitchers and a great place for hitters, how do you factor that in to your personnel decisions?
You did a great job of improving your bullpen and adding some other nice pieces, were there any holes in your major league lineup you weren’t able to address this offseason?
4) San Francisco Giants
2022: 87-76, 2nd Place NL West
Who They Were: The Giants tied Arizona atop the NL West, but failed to score a leadoff double in the eighth and ninth innings of their Play-In Game, eventually losing to Arizona in 12 innings. The Giants were fifth in runs allowed, but 11th in runs scored—a product of the team's park as much as the team's talent. Still, three players provided the majority of the team's offense. Rookie Rafael Jimenez had 28 home runs, free agent Yoenis Cespedes crushed 35 long balls, and Shane Benes won a Platinum Stick and a Gold Glove by hitting .300 with 31 home runs and a 15.2 Zone Rating.
Offseason Review: San Francisco lost a few talented players this offseason, including young talents Jo Adell and Trevor Rogers, as well as reliever Adam Ottavino and disappointing slugger Dan Vogelbach. Veteran Clint Frazier will replace Adell in Center Field, while Josh Bell and Orlando Arcia will add potent bats to make the lineup deeper. While the team lost a special pitcher in Rogers, Rogers may only be a reliever long term. The Giants acquired Shane Baz, an arm that could be one of the special pitchers in the PBA.
On the Farm: Shane Baz, Miguel Diaz, and Octavio Lopez are a trio of special young arms who will be up in the majors this year or next. Mekhi Lias, Teofilo Torrez, and Cupcakes Polite are also interesting young arms, adding to an exciting crop of young starters. There are some talented position players too, but they're all in the low minors and won't be up anytime soon.
Best Case Scenario: A more talented offense and a strong rotation lead San Francisco into the playoffs.
Worst Case Scenario: The pitching isn't quite ready, the offense is middle of the pack, and 82 wins can't get San Francisco into the postseason.
Key Questions: Will Shane Baz or Miguel Diaz make the opening day roster?
What will your starting outfield be this year and why?
5) San Diego Padres
2022: 75-87, Last Place NL West
Who They Were: The Padres struggled to get great production from its role players. Luis Urias and Austin Hedges were terrific, but the next crop of players struggled. Brandon Belt had 27 home runs, but a .311 OBP. Kevin Kiermaier hit just .231 with 15 long balls. Ferando Tatis Jr. had a .286 OBP and 12 home runs from the hot corner. Kyle Schwarber had 132 games played, but hit just .218 with 23 home runs and 67 runs driven in. There just wasn't enough juice from San Diego's second-tier players.
Offseason Review: The Padres lost Kevin Kiermaier and Austin Hedges, meaning they lost some power and defense. They also lost Adalberto Mejia, losing a serviceable starter. Derek Fisher should make up for some of the power loss, but it will be tough to replace Hedges, who provided fantastic defense and some power from a position that's tough to generate offense from.
On the Farm: Royce Lewis may need a year, but he could be a superstar Shortstop. Jeff Henry may need a year, but looks like a future ace. Kyle Guyatt and Ismael Escobar need a season, but could be lockdown relievers in the bullpen. Akinori Hayashida may need a year, but looks like a front-end starter. Whatever happens this year, San Diego's 2025 team looks strong with the amount of young talent accumulating in the organization's upper minors.
Best Case Scenario: Alejandro Toral and Leodys Taveras have good seasons, precursors to a strong Padres team in 2024 and 2025.
Worst Case Scenario: In a strong division, the Padres could be non-competitive, leading to a bleak offseason.
Key Questions: You have a lot of talent in your upper minors. Will we see those players this year, or will you develop them in the minors?
Will we see Austin Beck in Center Field or Leodys Taveras this year?
Special thanks to Dave Twibell who co-wrote this article!
1) Los Angeles Dodgers
2022: 86-76, 3rd Place NL West
Who They Were: The Dodgers suffered a number of devastating pitching injuries and didn't spend money to acquire another bat. As a result, their pitching was excellent—second in the NL in starter's ERA—but wasn't dominant. Worse, their position players were a disappointing eighth in runs scored, and they had the worst zone rating in the NL.
Offseason Review: The Dodgers are projected to spend $33 million more on players this season than in 2022. Eduardo Rodriguez is on the team to had more high-end pitching talent, giving the team a deep, talented rotation. Alex Bregman and Jeren Kendall provide the two-way talent Los Angeles desperately needed last year, and Chris Okey replaces Rafael Marchan as a power and defense oriented catcher. The Dodgers lost reasonably effective swingman Victor Rodriguez and useful lefty Adam Liberatore, so their depth in the bullpen is a little more vulnerable this year. They also lost Cody Bellinger, Juremi Profar, and Michael de Leon from a disappointing offense, which should boost the team by default.
On the Farm: After a few years without a very developed farm system, Los Angeles has some strong prospects in their pipeline. Tillman Corriga is a good looking pitching prospect in the Dodgers' international amateur complex, while closer to home, Rebel Ceja looks like an ace in the making. The two arms still need a lot of development time, but Second Baseman Mike Becker has a quick bat and may be ready as soon as next year.
Best Case Scenario: The Dodgers dominating rotation leads the team to a championship.
Worst Case Scenario: It's hard to see the Dodgers winning fewer than 85 games, but the offense can underachieve again, and a tough NL could leave them missing the playoffs.
Key Questions: Jurrickson Profar's slugging percentage really dipped last year. Do you think he's still a championship caliber hitter?
You signed Alex Bregman and have played him at First Base. After his season last year, do you think he has the bat for First Base?
2) Arizona Diamondbacks
2022: 88-75, NL West Champions Defeated Chicago Cubs 4-1 in NLDS. Defeated Philadelphia 4-3 in NLCS. Defeated Toronto 4-2 in World Series.
Who They Were: That’s easy, they were World Series champions. But getting there wasn’t easy. Coming off a 93-70 record in 2021, the Diamondbacks were expected to be good and once again battle the Los Angeles Dodgers for the top spot in the National League West. But things didn’t go as planned for Arizona. They struggled for large portions of the season, hanging around the division lead but never quite able to elbow through the Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies and lay claim to it. In fact, heading into the final weeks of the season, it looked like the Diamondbacks might run out of time and luck. But after what would become emblematic of the team during their playoff run, they just wouldn’t allow themselves to be beaten.
When the dust settled, Arizona staged an epic comeback against the Giants in a play-in game to grab the National League West crown and a second-straight playoff appearance. And as a cheering nation watched, jaws agape and stunned looks upon their faces, the Little Team That Could eventually topped the Toronto Blue Jays in an unforgettable World Series. Word is the celebration parade is still barreling down Mill Avenue in Phoenix with throngs of sunburned Diamondbacks fans refusing to go home.
Despite their success, though, neither Arizona’s offense nor its pitching were particularly impressive. The Diamondbacks were among the worst in the National League in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, wOBA, wRC, and hits. In fact, they ranked in the bottom half of the league in every major batting category except home runs, where they finished seventh.
That’s not to say Arizona didn’t have some standout performers. RF Greg Allen contributed 5.7 WAR and led the team in most offensive categories, while 2B Isan Diaz pitched in 3.1 WAR and newcomer Quentin Holmes put up 4.1 WAR and 40 doubles, more than enough to net him third-place in the National League Rookie of the Year voting. And while the PBA’s second-ranked overall prospect, 21-year old 3B Juan Gestoso, didn’t force his way onto the major league roster until mid-season, he gave fans a glimpse of his dazzling future during the Diamondback’s incredible playoff run, snatching up MVP trophies in both the National Leagues Championship Series and World Series.
While the Diamondbacks pitching was a bit more distinguished than their hitting, it still was at or below league average in most categories, including FIP (11th), WAR (11th), quality starts (10th), strikeouts (9th), and strikeout/walk ratio (9th). Despite this, the Arizona pitching staff finished third in wins, second in saves, and third in holds.
Staff ace Marco Gonzales rebounded to have a career year, with a 3.31 FIP, 202 strikeouts, 204.1 innings pitched, and 5.2 WAR. And while Gonzales was far and away the best Diamondbacks hurler, Chris Archer, Aaron Blair, and Jake Odorizzi were all effective.
Like the Diamondback’s rotation, their pen wasn’t flashy but it did the job. Closer Silvino Bracho netted 41 saves despite a 4.00 FIP, and relievers Ariel Jurado, Edubray Ramos, Jake Cosart, and Frank Duncan were all solid and provided dependable help out of the bullpen.
Offseason Review: Arizona added several players over the offseason, including veteran infielder Matt Duffy, glove-first catcher Bruce Maxwell, and starters Anthony DeSclafani and Chad Bettis. GM Arlo Zimmerman’s biggest offseason move was trading 29-year old Gold Glove outfielder and offensive cornerstone Greg Allen to the Cincinnati Reds for RF Alex Destino and draft picks. Although Destino is intriguing, he has yet to establish himself as an impact player and spent a large portion of the year as a 27-year old outfielder with the Reds AAA affiliate. While Destino has the tools to excel in the majors, as evidenced by his 2021 campaign with the Reds, its was clearly a forward-looking trade whose true impact won’t be known for years.
On the Farm: The Diamondbacks currently have the PBA’s 20th ranked farm system featuring some interesting prospects including starters Ian Filo, a live-armed righthander with a blazing fastball, and Juan Alvarado, a power pitcher with good control and a promising assortment of pitches. While the system took a hit when Gestoso graduated to the majors, it still sports several young hitters who could make an impact in Arizona. Juan Gil, a light-hitting shortstop with a Gold Glove future, and Cal Conley, another slap-hitting defensive wiz who looks equally comfortable at shortstop or second base, are only two of the young bats that could help the Diamondbacks to another World Series down the road.
Best Case Scenario: A division title and third-straight playoff appearance. Arizona has proven it’s a well-rounded team with a knack for winning games. While Allen’s loss stings, his production could be replaced by improvement from young stars Gestoso and Holmes combined with a decent year from Destino. They ran the board last year, and there’s no reason to believe they can’t do it again in 2023.
Worst Case Scenario: Absent a frenzied fall run and an improbable late inning comeback in the National League West play-in game (really, I’m not bitter, I promise), Arizona wouldn’t have made the playoffs let alone won the World Series. By many measures they were a mediocre team. Every team in the National League West has improved since last season, including the already-formidable Dodgers. If Arizona’s young stars regress or their thin rotation suffers any injuries, there may not be enough magic left for a repeat playoff appearance.
Key Questions: Allen was a huge contributor last year, what led you to trade him to Cincinnati?
Do you think you did enough over the offseason to upgrade your offense and pitching, or are you relying on improvement from your young stars like Gestoso and Holmes to further solidify your team?
Gestoso looks like an amazing player, how good can he be and what current or former PBA player would you compare him to right now?
3) Colorado Rockies
2022: 85-77. 4th Place NL West
Who They Were: It’s a testament to the strength and parity of the National League West that a team as talented as the Rockies could finish fourth in the division last year, albeit only 2.5 games behind the division winner. And it doesn’t appear this year will be any easier. Colorado is synonymous with hitting and 2022 was unsurprisingly a strong year for the Rockies offense. While Colorado finished in the middle of the pack in batting average and on-base percentage, they were near the top in every other category. They led the National League in home runs, racking up 50 more taters than the Phillies powerhouse offense, and finishing in the top-3 in RBI’s, runs, doubles, wRC, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging percentage. It was a dangerous group that routinely pulverized opposing pitching, especially at Coors Field. Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado both topped 40 home runs for the year, and a nigh-unbelievable eleven hitters notched double-digits in dingers during 2022. It was an offense that continuously pressured opposing pitchers, and it showed with 792 runs scored last season.
It’s often hard to judge Colorado pitchers by the same metrics used for other staffs. Playing half your games at 5,200 feet above sea level tends to distort your numbers a bit. Despite that, the Rockies pitching was solid last year by any metric. They were roughly league average in quality stats, FIP, WAR, walks allowed, and near the top of the league in strikeouts and WAR. Michael Fulmer was everything we’ve come to expect from the Colorado ace. He led the league with 219 innings pitched and 233 strikeouts, threw 19 quality starts, generated 6.7 WAR, and registered a 68 FIP-. Those are amazing numbers for any pitcher, but they are just staggering for a member of the Rockies staff.
While Fulmer was the best of the bunch, he wasn’t the only standout. Righty Riley Pint chipped in 3.8 WAR with his lethal combination of high-octane fastball and swing-and-miss slider. And while neither Kevin Horney nor Patrick Corbin performed quite at that level, they were both workmanlike starters.
The bullpen on the other hand wasn’t as impressive. Jonathan Holder had a nice season, tossing 86 innings with a 3.83 FIP, but aging closer Greg “Dirty South” Holland struggled with his control and continued to see his once-blistering fastball lose velocity. While he managed to notch a career high 36 saves, he also lost 12 games and allowed an eye-popping 71.4% of inherited runners to score.
Offseason Review: General Manager Erick Blasco made some aggressive moves over the offseason to address Colorado’s bullpen woes. 2022 National League Reliever of the Year, 32-year old Ken Giles, was signed to a three-year deal and handed the closer’s role. Giles is a premier pitcher, although with only a 36.5% ground-out rate and a tendency to groove a pitch at inopportune times, he may need to make some adjustments to succeed at Coors Field.
Giles wasn’t the only bullpen addition, though. The Rockies added left-hander Felipe Rivero, veteran Adam Ottavino, and Rule 5 draftee Juan Adame. And to top it off, they also nabbed starter Jesse Hahn, a perfect fit for Coors Field with a 50% ground-out rate and a nasty curve with a downward plane he throws for strikes on any count. While Blasco’s focus was clearly on improving Colorado’s bullpen, he re-acquired aging outfielder Steven Souza Jr.
On the Farm: Colorado has the 15th ranked minor league system in the PBA. It’s heavy on young hitters, but with a handful of highly-promising arms. Perhaps the best of the group is Adame, a Rule 5 pick from the Cardinals. He’s the 21st overall PBA prospect with three quality pitches and a strong desire to improve. He does tend to struggle with the long ball, though, so the jury’s still out on whether Colorado can keep him on the roster all season. Another great pitcher who looks nearly ready for the show is righthander Eric Pardinho. He tops out at 100 mph and could end up with one of the best fastballs in the PBA. Among the Rockies many hitting prospects, perhaps the most promising is 19-year old 1B Juan Marrufo. A 2021 first-round pick, Marrufo has shown a nice power stroke in the minors along with top-tier contact skills. His pitch recognition still needs some work, but he could develop into a cornerstone bat for Colorado in the next few years.
Best Case Scenario: Colorado addressed its biggest weakness over the offseason and should have a formidable bullpen in 2023. Their hitting was never in question and with Fulmer and Pint atop the rotation, they should continue to win games. Not only could the Rockies take the National League West, possibly in convincing fashion, they could also make a strong run in the playoffs.
Worst Case Scenario: Its difficult to see Colorado having a poor season. They’re too strong in too many areas. But they have the PBA’s oldest lineup (31.3 years) and pitching staff (31.5 years), and with age comes injuries and performance problems (not the kind a little blue pill can fix). While most of Colorado’s key players are still several years away from AARP membership, a few injuries could derail their season and lead to another finish near the bottom of the division.
Key Questions: You have the oldest team in the PBA, do you feel you have enough depth to address any injuries and how concerned are you that your window to compete could be closing?
Coors Field is a tough place for pitchers and a great place for hitters, how do you factor that in to your personnel decisions?
You did a great job of improving your bullpen and adding some other nice pieces, were there any holes in your major league lineup you weren’t able to address this offseason?
4) San Francisco Giants
2022: 87-76, 2nd Place NL West
Who They Were: The Giants tied Arizona atop the NL West, but failed to score a leadoff double in the eighth and ninth innings of their Play-In Game, eventually losing to Arizona in 12 innings. The Giants were fifth in runs allowed, but 11th in runs scored—a product of the team's park as much as the team's talent. Still, three players provided the majority of the team's offense. Rookie Rafael Jimenez had 28 home runs, free agent Yoenis Cespedes crushed 35 long balls, and Shane Benes won a Platinum Stick and a Gold Glove by hitting .300 with 31 home runs and a 15.2 Zone Rating.
Offseason Review: San Francisco lost a few talented players this offseason, including young talents Jo Adell and Trevor Rogers, as well as reliever Adam Ottavino and disappointing slugger Dan Vogelbach. Veteran Clint Frazier will replace Adell in Center Field, while Josh Bell and Orlando Arcia will add potent bats to make the lineup deeper. While the team lost a special pitcher in Rogers, Rogers may only be a reliever long term. The Giants acquired Shane Baz, an arm that could be one of the special pitchers in the PBA.
On the Farm: Shane Baz, Miguel Diaz, and Octavio Lopez are a trio of special young arms who will be up in the majors this year or next. Mekhi Lias, Teofilo Torrez, and Cupcakes Polite are also interesting young arms, adding to an exciting crop of young starters. There are some talented position players too, but they're all in the low minors and won't be up anytime soon.
Best Case Scenario: A more talented offense and a strong rotation lead San Francisco into the playoffs.
Worst Case Scenario: The pitching isn't quite ready, the offense is middle of the pack, and 82 wins can't get San Francisco into the postseason.
Key Questions: Will Shane Baz or Miguel Diaz make the opening day roster?
What will your starting outfield be this year and why?
5) San Diego Padres
2022: 75-87, Last Place NL West
Who They Were: The Padres struggled to get great production from its role players. Luis Urias and Austin Hedges were terrific, but the next crop of players struggled. Brandon Belt had 27 home runs, but a .311 OBP. Kevin Kiermaier hit just .231 with 15 long balls. Ferando Tatis Jr. had a .286 OBP and 12 home runs from the hot corner. Kyle Schwarber had 132 games played, but hit just .218 with 23 home runs and 67 runs driven in. There just wasn't enough juice from San Diego's second-tier players.
Offseason Review: The Padres lost Kevin Kiermaier and Austin Hedges, meaning they lost some power and defense. They also lost Adalberto Mejia, losing a serviceable starter. Derek Fisher should make up for some of the power loss, but it will be tough to replace Hedges, who provided fantastic defense and some power from a position that's tough to generate offense from.
On the Farm: Royce Lewis may need a year, but he could be a superstar Shortstop. Jeff Henry may need a year, but looks like a future ace. Kyle Guyatt and Ismael Escobar need a season, but could be lockdown relievers in the bullpen. Akinori Hayashida may need a year, but looks like a front-end starter. Whatever happens this year, San Diego's 2025 team looks strong with the amount of young talent accumulating in the organization's upper minors.
Best Case Scenario: Alejandro Toral and Leodys Taveras have good seasons, precursors to a strong Padres team in 2024 and 2025.
Worst Case Scenario: In a strong division, the Padres could be non-competitive, leading to a bleak offseason.
Key Questions: You have a lot of talent in your upper minors. Will we see those players this year, or will you develop them in the minors?
Will we see Austin Beck in Center Field or Leodys Taveras this year?
Special thanks to Dave Twibell who co-wrote this article!
