Post by dbackhon on May 15, 2020 13:41:23 GMT -5
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs
For the second consecutive year the Chicago Cubs face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLDS. Last year the speed and defense driven Diamondbacks were able vanquish the favored All-Star Cubs squad in just five games on route to their first World Series crown of the PBA era. Unlike last year however, everyone expected both of these clubs to make the postseason. Arizona having had a leg up on the NL West for most of the year and the Cubs turning in one of the most dominant years in the history of the PBA. So far this year the teams have stuck by the strategies that got them there last year, with Arizona using good pitching, defense and team speed to their advantage and the Cubs with an murderer's row of All-Star Sluggers backed up by the best bullpen in baseball.
D'Backs offense against Cubs pitching
Much like in their 2021 season the Arizona Diamondbacks team is built around contact and speed, the crown jewel of their lineup is Juan "Doorbell" Gestoso blossoming into one of if not the best third basemen in the National League. His .382 OBP and 67 stolen bases get him into scoring position often and sets the pace for the rest of the offense, including All-Star Yunior Severino and former Rookies of the year Isan Diaz and Ryan Johnson. Similar to last year, the offense is certainly greater than the sum of its parts and when working together are capable of manufacturing runs in key moments of the game. They are however starved for power, with only one member of the starting 9 (outfielder Ryan Johnson) hitting 25HR this year.
The Cubs starting rotation is not their greatest strength, coming in with the 6th best ERA for Starting pitchers in the NL, though they certainly have a number of nice players and with a 6-man rotation all of whom are more than capable of starting a playoff game and winning. Led by ace Steven Matz (who has been good this year despite having trouble staying on the field), and backed up by Kyle Hendricks who had his best year since 2020, deadline acquisition Cody Anderson who has played well since being acquired form Baltimore, and solid journeyman Sonny Gray there are no weak spots in the rotation. If Matz can play like a bona fide ace it could tip the scales of the series.
However the strength of Chicago pitching is in perhaps the best bullpen in not just in the league but maybe even of PBA history. The bullpen ERA is a miniscule 2.42 (a better rate than more closers in this year's playoffs), and between Zach Britton (1.21 ERA, and 46 saves) and Juan "Bonkers" Carrizales (1.48 ERA) the Cubs have played all year essentially limiting their opponents to 7 innings of baseball while they got the full 9. If Arizona is going to hit well off of the Cubs pitching they are going to have to get the their starters early so that the Cubs don't get to employ the back end of their bullpen when the D'Backs need a key run.
It would also be remiss not to mention the Cubs putrid defense. With the 2nd most errors and the worst Zone Rating in the NL by far, Arizona will have many opportunities should they put the ball in play to run aggressively, steal bases, stretch out doubles that would be singles against other squads and overall improve the quality and the effects of the balls that they put in play.
Chicago offense against D'Backs pitching
Chicago's hard-hitting offense has has been second to the otherworldly Philly offense in Runs Scores, Batting WAR, and OPS and it's easy to see why. The Cubs are a rare franchise who can genuinely boast that they have a power threat in every single slot of their lineup. Everybody know that Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Freddie Freeman can rake but at the bottom end of the lineup the cubs have former D'back Christian Yelich, and the aging but still power-packed Giancarlo Stanton.
The job of the Arizona pitchers here is simple, keep the ball in the park so that they can take advantage of their NL-best defense. Luckily this is something that the Diamondbacks can been able to do better this year than they had in previous years, in large part to the efforts of ace Marco Gonzales, Chris Archer, and Jake Odorizzi all of whom have allowed less than one home run per nine innings this year. This may be a series to leave the homer-prone Aaron Blair at home and rely heavily on those three. The loss of Andy DeScelfani to injury late in the year is a big blow to the D'Backs as their options for fourth starter are players who are either unproven in big spots or have proven that they are vulnerable to power-hitting teams.
However, Chicago will be without MVP-candidate and best infielder in the PBA Francisco Lindor who fractured his foot in the division clinching game against the Cardinals on September 30th... While the Cubs certainly do not rely on Lindor to be able to produce offense, it is not easy to fill a 7.1-WAR hole in your lineup, especially as Lindor is also a leader in the clubhouse.
Keys of the Series
Will Arizona's offense be able to put up crooked numbers early against Cubs pitching?
Can Arizona's pitching be able to keep the ball in the park against the Cubs lineup?
Can Doorbell and Brandon Finnegan simply will their team to victory as he did so often in last year's playoffs?
Who (if anyone) will be the D'Backs fourth starter?
Will Lindor's absence (especially defensively) hurt the Cubs?
Prediction
Arizona squeaks out a couple of nailbiters, to take the series to seven but ultimately a big time homer from the Cubs spells the D'backs doom... And Doorbell can only make one run on his own.
Chicago over Arizona in 7
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Questions for the Cubs
1) How much does the loss of Lindor impact your club? What do you plan to do to replace him, and in what facet of the game to you think his loss will felt the most?
2) You have a full stable of starters that could potentially start in a playoff game, but this is the time of year that rotations tend to shrink rather than expand. Do you have any plans for the starters that you feel don't quite make the playoff rotation?
3) It seems as if Cubs teams in the PBA era have been real powerhouse squads that seem to hit bad luck at the worst times... What makes this roster different than those from years past?
4) What relatively unheralded player (not that the Cubs have many) do you think can make a major impact in this series?
Questions for the Diamondbacks
1) Anthony DeScelfani has been a key piece of the D'backs rotation this season. How do you plan on replacing his steady presence on the mound?
2) You're playing against a team that has so many strengths and one glaring weakness (defense), do you plan on changing your strategy to try to exploit that one weakness?
3) In all but one of your losses to the Cubs this year your staff has given up at least 2 home runs to Chicago batters. How do you plan on remedying this, and do you think you can win the series if you give up 2 home runs per game?
4) Last year Doorbell and Finnegan willed the D'backs through some precarious situations to a title, what other players do you think will step up this series and perhaps beyond?
D'Backs offense against Cubs pitching
Much like in their 2021 season the Arizona Diamondbacks team is built around contact and speed, the crown jewel of their lineup is Juan "Doorbell" Gestoso blossoming into one of if not the best third basemen in the National League. His .382 OBP and 67 stolen bases get him into scoring position often and sets the pace for the rest of the offense, including All-Star Yunior Severino and former Rookies of the year Isan Diaz and Ryan Johnson. Similar to last year, the offense is certainly greater than the sum of its parts and when working together are capable of manufacturing runs in key moments of the game. They are however starved for power, with only one member of the starting 9 (outfielder Ryan Johnson) hitting 25HR this year.
The Cubs starting rotation is not their greatest strength, coming in with the 6th best ERA for Starting pitchers in the NL, though they certainly have a number of nice players and with a 6-man rotation all of whom are more than capable of starting a playoff game and winning. Led by ace Steven Matz (who has been good this year despite having trouble staying on the field), and backed up by Kyle Hendricks who had his best year since 2020, deadline acquisition Cody Anderson who has played well since being acquired form Baltimore, and solid journeyman Sonny Gray there are no weak spots in the rotation. If Matz can play like a bona fide ace it could tip the scales of the series.
However the strength of Chicago pitching is in perhaps the best bullpen in not just in the league but maybe even of PBA history. The bullpen ERA is a miniscule 2.42 (a better rate than more closers in this year's playoffs), and between Zach Britton (1.21 ERA, and 46 saves) and Juan "Bonkers" Carrizales (1.48 ERA) the Cubs have played all year essentially limiting their opponents to 7 innings of baseball while they got the full 9. If Arizona is going to hit well off of the Cubs pitching they are going to have to get the their starters early so that the Cubs don't get to employ the back end of their bullpen when the D'Backs need a key run.
It would also be remiss not to mention the Cubs putrid defense. With the 2nd most errors and the worst Zone Rating in the NL by far, Arizona will have many opportunities should they put the ball in play to run aggressively, steal bases, stretch out doubles that would be singles against other squads and overall improve the quality and the effects of the balls that they put in play.
Chicago offense against D'Backs pitching
Chicago's hard-hitting offense has has been second to the otherworldly Philly offense in Runs Scores, Batting WAR, and OPS and it's easy to see why. The Cubs are a rare franchise who can genuinely boast that they have a power threat in every single slot of their lineup. Everybody know that Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Freddie Freeman can rake but at the bottom end of the lineup the cubs have former D'back Christian Yelich, and the aging but still power-packed Giancarlo Stanton.
The job of the Arizona pitchers here is simple, keep the ball in the park so that they can take advantage of their NL-best defense. Luckily this is something that the Diamondbacks can been able to do better this year than they had in previous years, in large part to the efforts of ace Marco Gonzales, Chris Archer, and Jake Odorizzi all of whom have allowed less than one home run per nine innings this year. This may be a series to leave the homer-prone Aaron Blair at home and rely heavily on those three. The loss of Andy DeScelfani to injury late in the year is a big blow to the D'Backs as their options for fourth starter are players who are either unproven in big spots or have proven that they are vulnerable to power-hitting teams.
However, Chicago will be without MVP-candidate and best infielder in the PBA Francisco Lindor who fractured his foot in the division clinching game against the Cardinals on September 30th... While the Cubs certainly do not rely on Lindor to be able to produce offense, it is not easy to fill a 7.1-WAR hole in your lineup, especially as Lindor is also a leader in the clubhouse.
Keys of the Series
Will Arizona's offense be able to put up crooked numbers early against Cubs pitching?
Can Arizona's pitching be able to keep the ball in the park against the Cubs lineup?
Can Doorbell and Brandon Finnegan simply will their team to victory as he did so often in last year's playoffs?
Who (if anyone) will be the D'Backs fourth starter?
Will Lindor's absence (especially defensively) hurt the Cubs?
Prediction
Arizona squeaks out a couple of nailbiters, to take the series to seven but ultimately a big time homer from the Cubs spells the D'backs doom... And Doorbell can only make one run on his own.
Chicago over Arizona in 7
----------------
Questions for the Cubs
1) How much does the loss of Lindor impact your club? What do you plan to do to replace him, and in what facet of the game to you think his loss will felt the most?
2) You have a full stable of starters that could potentially start in a playoff game, but this is the time of year that rotations tend to shrink rather than expand. Do you have any plans for the starters that you feel don't quite make the playoff rotation?
3) It seems as if Cubs teams in the PBA era have been real powerhouse squads that seem to hit bad luck at the worst times... What makes this roster different than those from years past?
4) What relatively unheralded player (not that the Cubs have many) do you think can make a major impact in this series?
Questions for the Diamondbacks
1) Anthony DeScelfani has been a key piece of the D'backs rotation this season. How do you plan on replacing his steady presence on the mound?
2) You're playing against a team that has so many strengths and one glaring weakness (defense), do you plan on changing your strategy to try to exploit that one weakness?
3) In all but one of your losses to the Cubs this year your staff has given up at least 2 home runs to Chicago batters. How do you plan on remedying this, and do you think you can win the series if you give up 2 home runs per game?
4) Last year Doorbell and Finnegan willed the D'backs through some precarious situations to a title, what other players do you think will step up this series and perhaps beyond?
