Post by brewersgm on May 16, 2020 1:30:56 GMT -5
Washington Nationals (96-66) @ St. Louis Cardinals (97-65)
For the 3rd time in 4 years the Washington Nationals will be making an appearance in the National League Wildcard game. They have faced the Rockies, the Marlins and now they will face the St. Louis Cardinals. The Nationals core of young elite starting pitchers and Bryce Harper continue to put them in the PBA Postseason. Mike Trout had a down year by his standards but SP Erick Pena began to show why he was the #1 prospect 3 years running.
The Cardinals, like the Marlins of last season, are making their first playoff appearance in PBA history. The 2023 Cardinals have been a remarkable team. They have gone an incredible 30-14 in 1 run games good for a 0.682 winning percentage. They won 97 games despite only posting a +29 RD. This led to them posting a PBA record +15 expected wins going by base runs on stats plus and a +13 Pythagorean record. Both marks are PBA records and no other season has come particularly close (the Phillies in 2020 posted a +11 base runs on stats plus but only a +4 Pythag record). Taken together the Cardinals should have been expected to win between 82 and 84 games, not very close to 97. But baseball is not played by "what should have happened" and in a one game playoff it would be unwise to count out any team.
Pitching
Nationals
Starter:
On the hill for the visiting Nationals will be the 25 year old, 6'3" 205 pounder RHP Franklin E. Perez. The E. stands for "Excellent." Perez started 32 games for the Nationals this year amassing 196.1 IP and 221 Ks to 49 BBs. Perez was a consistent workhouse keeping his FIP under 4 in every month aside from August. Originally acquired from the Astros in 2018, Perez features a 4 pitch arsenal. He throws a fastball that sits at 97-99 mph, a plus curveball, a plus slider, and a plus changeup. It's a deep and deadly set of pitches that the Cards know all too well. Perez only faced the Cardinals once this season on 9/4, but he went 8.2 IP allowing no runs and striking out 12. If the Nationals get a game like that from Perez again they will very likely head on to face their NL East rival Phillies.
Bullpen:
While the Nationals bullpen was not a disaster this year, as in years past, it couldn't be called remarkable either. While the Nationals starters led the NL in ERA, the Bullpen placed 11th. The Pen is led by Nick Burdi, a former Marlin who came over to the Nats in a deadline deal. Burdi continued his solid season for the Nats raising his K/9 from 9 on the Marlins to 11.9 on the Nats. Jon Carter and Jeremy Jeffress also posted solid seasons for the Nats pen with ERA's under 3.4 and 10 saves a piece. Reliever Blake Treinen posted 11 saves despite being very unlucky with an ERA over 6 and a FIP under 4. As long as the manager bot sticks to the top guys in the pen the Nats should feel comfortable with their bullpen. With Perez on the mound it may not play much of a role.
Cardinals
Starter:
Sources close to the Cardinals confirm that the team will likely be starting the 32 year old, 6'6" 235 pounder RHP Michael Wacha. Wacha had a career year for the Cardinals posting 4.6 WAR, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 78 FIP-. He anchored a strong Cardinals starting staff that placed 4th in the NL in ERA. Wacha doesn't overpower guys, only maxing out 93 MPH. He features 4 pitches, the strongest of them being his changeup which allows him to get lefties out. Wacha's cutter and fastball are also solid offerings. He uses the movement on his pitches to keep the ball in the yard which plays well in home run suppressing Busch Stadium. Wacha had a 2.56 ERA at home this season and had a HR/9 under 1. Wacha faced the Nationals once this season going 4 innings and allowing only a single run.
Bullpen:
Like the Nationals, the Cardinals starters were much stronger than their bullpen. The Cards bullpen placed 10th in the NL in ERA. The Cardinals bullpen has another surprising similarity to the Nationals as well, it is has a Burdi, Zack Burdi, Nick Burdi's younger brother. Zack had a strong year for the Cardinals putting up an identical 1.6 WAR to his brother. The star of the Cardinals bullpen however was 22 year old closer Luis Contreras. Contreras had a PBA leading 48 saves. His 101 mph fastball and his sinker are devastating to batters. He is surely one reason why the Cardinals posted such a great record in 1 run games.
Advantage-
Slight edge to the Cardinals. If this was a long series the Nationals stronger SP would make a big difference but for this game Wacha and Perez are fairly evenly matched. In a tight game the Cardinals can count on Contreras, and while the Nats bullpen is much improved from years past they do not feature a star like him.
Lineups and Defense
Nationals:
Lineup:
The Nationals lineup was not as fearsome as in years past, but it was still quite good. Last year OFers Bryce Harper and Mike Trout combined for 14.53 WAR, 80 homers, 58 doubles and 200 runs. This year they combined for "only" 11.2 WAR, 70 homers, 60 doubles and 205 runs. They are still one of the best 3/4 combos in the league. Victor Robles did his thing in the leadoff spot stealing 50 bases. The breakout player for the Nationals this year was Juan Soto (which feels weird to write knowing how good he is in real life). The 24 year old Soto slashed 314/369/472 and had a career high 2.8 WAR, primarily as the teams DH. Overall the Nationals were 3rd in runs scored in the NL (767) and 3rd in wOBA (0.323, last year they had a team wOBA of 0.332). The Nationals averaged 4.7 runs per game and 5.7 runs per game against the Cardinals. So the Nationals proved they were able to hit the Cardinals.
Defense:
The Nationals defense was not very good. They were 10th in the NL in ZR with a -12.0 ZR. Especially horrible was their 2B defense which dragged the whole team's defense down. The Nationals were dead last in the PBA with a -13.23 ZR at the position.They also posted a -0.95 ZR at 3B. Disregarding pitcher ZR, the Nationals posted a positive ZR at every other position. Unfortunately a lot of balls go up the middle to the second base side and players like Luis Arcendo, Anthony Rendon, and Hunter Watson proved incapable of fielding them. Watson was especially bad racking up -2.0 ZR in only 6 games played at 2B. The Nationals were hurt at 2B by an unfortunate injury to FA signing Kolten Wong who posted very good defensive numbers while healthy. A key to this game for the Nationals will be limiting balls that go to the right side of the diamond.
Cardinals:
Lineup:
The Cardinals were 11th in the NL in wOBA (0.302) but 7th in runs (672). They just found ways to score. LF Joc Pederson hit only .204 but when he did connect the ball tended to go very far. He led the Cardinals with 37 home runs. Most of the other key contributors to the Cardinals offense came from the infield. The right side of the Cardinals IF is one of the best in the PBA. 2B Daniel Brito and 1B Nick Pratto had solid seasons for the Cardinals, even if they were not as productive as in years past. At only ages 25 and 24 respectively they should have many more good seasons ahead of them. Pratto doesn't have as much power as the typical 1B, his career high in HR is only 16. But he hits for a high average, hits doubles and is adept at drawing walks. He drew at least 80 walks for the 2nd straight year. Pratto lead the Cardinals in OPS. Brito is a similar type of hitter at 2B and also has a strong batters eye. The Cardinals are also excited to get back star SS Addison Russell, who should return from a hamstring injury in time for the WC game.
Defense:
The Cardinals defense placed 6th in the NL with a +0.1 ZR. The Cardinals had positive defenders everywhere except for the OF. The problem area was CF with a cumulative -2.43 ZR. However the addition of CF Austin Meadows, in a blockbuster trade from the Braves, has helped to alleviate the issue. Meadows has been a positive CF defender for the Cardinals in his brief time with the club. The Cardinals are a team full of players that hover around average to slightly above average defenders. The exception being 1B Nick Pratto who posted a 6.3 ZR. While 1B defense isn't the most important area of a team, Pratto is one of the very best defensive 1Bs in the league.
Advantage-
Lineup- Nationals, even with Trout's down year the Nats were a stronger hitting team than the Cardinals this season.
Defense- Cardinals. The addition of Austin Meadows improves the weakest part of the team at a key defensive position in CF. The Nationals 2B hole could prove to be a decisive factor against St. Louis.
Can Wacha contain the Nationals lineup? While the Nationals have hit well against the Cardinals this year they faced Wacha once and he was able to limit the damage.
Will the Nats be able to keep balls from going to the right side of the IF?
Which Burdi is mama Burdi rooting for, Zack or Nick?