2023 ALDS Preview: Mariners – Twins
May 19, 2020 11:47:40 GMT -5
Commissioner Erick, dbackhon, and 1 more like this
Post by Grubs - Philly on May 19, 2020 11:47:40 GMT -5
Seattle Mariners (94-68) at Minnesota Twins (95-67)
Two teams on the rise jumped from third to first this year and are built to win beyond 2023. Seattle holds the edge in the season series, 4-2, notching three blowout wins. The rest of the games were close.
There are some similarities between these young clubs, as they both fare much better at the plate against righties than lefties. Both are great home teams that barely hold a winning record on the road. Both have slightly elevated BABIP numbers, but nothing that seems out of place. Both are well-rounded. Both have a mascot that ends in “s.” It’s striking.
Minnesota walks a lot more at the dish, and that discipline paired with productive at bats deeper into the lineup gives the Twins an edge at the plate. Seattle’s star power and at-times dominant bullpen give them confidence in the late innings.
Minnesota blew through the early part of the year, but they’re just four games over .500 since July. Seattle’s May-June-July run kept them in the hunt despite an August swoon.
Seattle | 781 runs scored | 685 runs allowed
The Mariners come in having won six straight and boasting a strong September. Jeff Thomas’s young squad has batting splits that aren’t grossly different depending on who’s pitching from what side of the rubber, but the team’s 65-40 record against righty starters contrasts with just a game over .500 against lefties. Still, it’s a well-rounded squad that raps out timely extra base hits and had no problem winning the AL West.
The offense posted top-three marks in average and slugging percentage, and the 529 extra base hits were good enough for second in the AL, as were the Mariners’ 109 steals. The Mariners have star power and two legitimate MVP candidates. First baseman Francisco DeJesus has a truly gaudy triple slash of .283/.390/.602 with a slugging percentage that led baseball. His counting numbers are equally impressive, with 52 home runs, 135 RBI, 111 runs and 96 walks. He’s a beast. While he can go yard against lefties, he’s much less selective versus southpaws and his numbers suffer.
As good as DeJesus was this year, catcher Tomoya Mori was arguably better. His 7.4 WAR was a full point better than his teammate and he finally put up the kind of numbers in the PBA that he was popping in Japan. The .311/.376/.578 triple slash came with 35 round trippers and 101 RBI. He did it all while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense. His catcher’s ERA was actually higher than backup Nick Collins, but there’s no reason Collins should see any starts in October. Mori was equally lethal against lefties and righties.
Rookie Jonathan Capellan provided sparkling defense in center, but also pushed a .310 average thanks in part to BABIP luck, but also advanced plate skills. He stuck in the two spot and played a big part in the big counting stats for Mori and DeJesus. Shortstop Lucius Fox built on a solid 2022 and provides speed and baserunning savvy atop the lineup. Third baseman Mark Vientos provides a modicum of thump in the five hole, and while he’s often spelling a starter, Isaiah Gilliam is as good a fourth outfielder as there is in baseball. The lineup thins a little 6-9, and if a team is going to exploit Seattle’s bats, this is the place to do it.
The Mariners’ pitching relies on strikeouts and a bullpen that can string together shutdown innings. The team’s 4.46 ERA for starters gets much better in a four-man rotation that is at its best when it can suppress home runs.
No one in Seattle’s rotation has eye-popping numbers, but Jeifry Nunez, Woo-seok Ko and Jhoan Duran have excellent stuff. It’s something of a mystery that it hasn’t generated more gaudy strikeout totals. Only Nunez and Duran were year-long starters, but Seattle has a rotation that looks built for options in the postseason. Thomas would have preferred to slot Ko as his ace, but a strained oblique that’s on the mend means he’ll start the second game.
The back end of the Mariners’ pen is as good as any in baseball. Michael Lorenzen’s 1.34 ERA and league-leading 43 saves are lockdown good, and the fact that he has anything-but-boring Ryan Dull bridging the gap to the 9th inning with a 0.73 ERA is almost unfair. The bullpen sports four lefties, including aging stud Chris Sale, who’s tentatively looking at a long relief role during the playoffs, and 28-year-old rookie Matt Krook, who looks like a steal as part of an offseason swap for picks with San Francisco.
Defensively, the Mariners are somewhat middle of the pack. They don’t throw a lot of guys out from the outfield and can be prone to the boneheaded error, but Vientos and Fox form a strong left side of the infield, even if an early season injury hampered Fox’s Gold Glove effectiveness. Mori, Aramis Ademan and Capellan keep things tight up the middle. DeJesus isn’t a liability at first, but he’s close. The Mariners don’t throw out an abnormally high number of baserunners, but they suppress steals, tying for fewest in the PBA.
Minnesota | 836 runs scored | 669 runs allowed
That the Twins' offense popped an AL-best .781 team OPS without stud Luis Robert is impressive. The Twinkies led the AL in both batting average and on base percentage. As a team, they’re markedly better against right handed pitching. There aren’t any gaudy power numbers or counting stats, but the Twins’ outfield can thump. All four regular outfielders hit at least 21 and drove in 75. Gilberto Celestino offers speed in addition to power, though he’s not even successful 70 percent of the time. While left fielder Akil Baddoo’s breakout generated headlines, it’s Alex Kiriloff who’s the stud. If not for a lengthy IL stint thanks to a badly sprained ankle, he’d be an MVP candidate.
The team added Yoan Moncada and Buster Posey in a pair of win-now moves that saw them part with the no. 35 prospect in Michael Perez and toolsy outfielder Ernesto Roca to Tampa, and pitcher Amari Toure to Baltimore. Moncada is an elite base stealer who went hog-wild with the Twins, swiping 22 bags in just 50 games. He’s topped the AL in steals three years running (with FOUR teams) and once again led the league in doubles. Nuzzo notes Posey has been raking since the deal with Baltimore, posting an .886 OPS and 2.7 WAR in 49 games.
The lone hole in the lineup is underproducing shortstop Dalton Rone, but Minnesota has worked around him without a problem. This team can be relentless when the offense heats up.
The Twins’ rotation is unspectacular, but like the Mississippi that rumbles by a few blocks north of Target Field, impressive in its volume and depth. Four starters threw at least 159 innings, and slightly unlucky Felix Jorge (4.45) is the only one with an ERA above 4.00.
The kid to watch here is 24-year-old Osiris German—the low guy on the innings count. Somehow, some way, he struck out a whopping 205 batters against just 33 walks. He has ace-level stuff and a three pitch mix that can match just about any in baseball. The problem is his 3 stamina. That hasn’t stopped him from putting up about 70 pitches per start, though. Most times it’s good enough for the fifth or sixth inning. Only once has he gone seven. But man, when he’s on the mound, it’s magic time. Aside from the stamina, the only knock on him is he’s slightly homer prone. More black magic: while he gets tagged for homers equally from both sides of the plate, he’s been much better against lefties, with a curve that murders the back foot and a changeup few can turn around.
Denyi Reyes switched to starting in mid-August and has been something of a revelation, going 4-2 with an ERA in the threes. Nuzzo has the control artist slotted in the third spot. His stuff is still developing, but he’s flashed elite control, walking more than two batters just once in his final nine starts and issuing zero free passes four times.
Minnesota’s bullpen is similarly deep and even.
Hunter Greene has been wild, but wildly effective in his 96 innings. With wipeout stuff, he’s striking out almost 13 per nine frames. He’s allowed just 67 hits against 137 strikeouts. A patient squad will be rewarded against him, though, as he walks five guys per nine innings. Still, his 2.53 FIP is even better than his ERA, and a dominant postseason could be a key to the Twins’ success.
Jake Reed has been solid in his second season as closer, with his 3.80 ERA more the story of a rough few weeks in late August and early September, when he blew four saves and his first since mid-May. He seems to have found his form again, notching four straight scoreless outings liberally peppered with Ks.
As a team, Minnesota’s 11 righties and two southpaws do much better against left handed batters.
Defensively, the Twins’ numbers are patchy. It all adds up to a better-than-average squad, though, and the additions of Yoan Moncada and Buster Posey strengthen the team. Expect solid glove work from this well-rounded group.
Questions for Jeff Thomas:
The Twins are susceptible to lefties, but you have three righty starters who are all better than Sale against lefthanded batters this year. The one weak spot might be game one starter Duran, who’s had less than stellar results against lefties. Did you consider keeping Sale in the rotation, or has he always been destined for the postseason pen?
You have Isaac Paredes penciled in as DH batting second against lefties, even though Isaiah Gilliam has better numbers. What do you like about Paredes, and if you make it past the Twins (who have no lefty starters), would you look at shuffling?
Who among your middle relievers will be key in getting to the back end of the bullpen, and who’s your guy when Dull or Lorenzen need a breather?
Questions for Ben Nuzzo:
Your outfield is stacked. Do you prefer to go with a hot bat, rotate guys in to make sure they get roughly equal plate appearances, or do you have a set pecking order?
Do you have any lingering concerns about Jake Reed’s workload, or does he seem to have sorted out whatever was wrong in August and early September?
What’s the difference between your dominant first half team and the squad that struggled somewhat in the second half?
Two teams on the rise jumped from third to first this year and are built to win beyond 2023. Seattle holds the edge in the season series, 4-2, notching three blowout wins. The rest of the games were close.
There are some similarities between these young clubs, as they both fare much better at the plate against righties than lefties. Both are great home teams that barely hold a winning record on the road. Both have slightly elevated BABIP numbers, but nothing that seems out of place. Both are well-rounded. Both have a mascot that ends in “s.” It’s striking.
Minnesota walks a lot more at the dish, and that discipline paired with productive at bats deeper into the lineup gives the Twins an edge at the plate. Seattle’s star power and at-times dominant bullpen give them confidence in the late innings.
Minnesota blew through the early part of the year, but they’re just four games over .500 since July. Seattle’s May-June-July run kept them in the hunt despite an August swoon.
Seattle | 781 runs scored | 685 runs allowed
The Mariners come in having won six straight and boasting a strong September. Jeff Thomas’s young squad has batting splits that aren’t grossly different depending on who’s pitching from what side of the rubber, but the team’s 65-40 record against righty starters contrasts with just a game over .500 against lefties. Still, it’s a well-rounded squad that raps out timely extra base hits and had no problem winning the AL West.
The offense posted top-three marks in average and slugging percentage, and the 529 extra base hits were good enough for second in the AL, as were the Mariners’ 109 steals. The Mariners have star power and two legitimate MVP candidates. First baseman Francisco DeJesus has a truly gaudy triple slash of .283/.390/.602 with a slugging percentage that led baseball. His counting numbers are equally impressive, with 52 home runs, 135 RBI, 111 runs and 96 walks. He’s a beast. While he can go yard against lefties, he’s much less selective versus southpaws and his numbers suffer.
As good as DeJesus was this year, catcher Tomoya Mori was arguably better. His 7.4 WAR was a full point better than his teammate and he finally put up the kind of numbers in the PBA that he was popping in Japan. The .311/.376/.578 triple slash came with 35 round trippers and 101 RBI. He did it all while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense. His catcher’s ERA was actually higher than backup Nick Collins, but there’s no reason Collins should see any starts in October. Mori was equally lethal against lefties and righties.
Rookie Jonathan Capellan provided sparkling defense in center, but also pushed a .310 average thanks in part to BABIP luck, but also advanced plate skills. He stuck in the two spot and played a big part in the big counting stats for Mori and DeJesus. Shortstop Lucius Fox built on a solid 2022 and provides speed and baserunning savvy atop the lineup. Third baseman Mark Vientos provides a modicum of thump in the five hole, and while he’s often spelling a starter, Isaiah Gilliam is as good a fourth outfielder as there is in baseball. The lineup thins a little 6-9, and if a team is going to exploit Seattle’s bats, this is the place to do it.
The Mariners’ pitching relies on strikeouts and a bullpen that can string together shutdown innings. The team’s 4.46 ERA for starters gets much better in a four-man rotation that is at its best when it can suppress home runs.
No one in Seattle’s rotation has eye-popping numbers, but Jeifry Nunez, Woo-seok Ko and Jhoan Duran have excellent stuff. It’s something of a mystery that it hasn’t generated more gaudy strikeout totals. Only Nunez and Duran were year-long starters, but Seattle has a rotation that looks built for options in the postseason. Thomas would have preferred to slot Ko as his ace, but a strained oblique that’s on the mend means he’ll start the second game.
The back end of the Mariners’ pen is as good as any in baseball. Michael Lorenzen’s 1.34 ERA and league-leading 43 saves are lockdown good, and the fact that he has anything-but-boring Ryan Dull bridging the gap to the 9th inning with a 0.73 ERA is almost unfair. The bullpen sports four lefties, including aging stud Chris Sale, who’s tentatively looking at a long relief role during the playoffs, and 28-year-old rookie Matt Krook, who looks like a steal as part of an offseason swap for picks with San Francisco.
Defensively, the Mariners are somewhat middle of the pack. They don’t throw a lot of guys out from the outfield and can be prone to the boneheaded error, but Vientos and Fox form a strong left side of the infield, even if an early season injury hampered Fox’s Gold Glove effectiveness. Mori, Aramis Ademan and Capellan keep things tight up the middle. DeJesus isn’t a liability at first, but he’s close. The Mariners don’t throw out an abnormally high number of baserunners, but they suppress steals, tying for fewest in the PBA.
Minnesota | 836 runs scored | 669 runs allowed
That the Twins' offense popped an AL-best .781 team OPS without stud Luis Robert is impressive. The Twinkies led the AL in both batting average and on base percentage. As a team, they’re markedly better against right handed pitching. There aren’t any gaudy power numbers or counting stats, but the Twins’ outfield can thump. All four regular outfielders hit at least 21 and drove in 75. Gilberto Celestino offers speed in addition to power, though he’s not even successful 70 percent of the time. While left fielder Akil Baddoo’s breakout generated headlines, it’s Alex Kiriloff who’s the stud. If not for a lengthy IL stint thanks to a badly sprained ankle, he’d be an MVP candidate.
The team added Yoan Moncada and Buster Posey in a pair of win-now moves that saw them part with the no. 35 prospect in Michael Perez and toolsy outfielder Ernesto Roca to Tampa, and pitcher Amari Toure to Baltimore. Moncada is an elite base stealer who went hog-wild with the Twins, swiping 22 bags in just 50 games. He’s topped the AL in steals three years running (with FOUR teams) and once again led the league in doubles. Nuzzo notes Posey has been raking since the deal with Baltimore, posting an .886 OPS and 2.7 WAR in 49 games.
The lone hole in the lineup is underproducing shortstop Dalton Rone, but Minnesota has worked around him without a problem. This team can be relentless when the offense heats up.
The Twins’ rotation is unspectacular, but like the Mississippi that rumbles by a few blocks north of Target Field, impressive in its volume and depth. Four starters threw at least 159 innings, and slightly unlucky Felix Jorge (4.45) is the only one with an ERA above 4.00.
The kid to watch here is 24-year-old Osiris German—the low guy on the innings count. Somehow, some way, he struck out a whopping 205 batters against just 33 walks. He has ace-level stuff and a three pitch mix that can match just about any in baseball. The problem is his 3 stamina. That hasn’t stopped him from putting up about 70 pitches per start, though. Most times it’s good enough for the fifth or sixth inning. Only once has he gone seven. But man, when he’s on the mound, it’s magic time. Aside from the stamina, the only knock on him is he’s slightly homer prone. More black magic: while he gets tagged for homers equally from both sides of the plate, he’s been much better against lefties, with a curve that murders the back foot and a changeup few can turn around.
Denyi Reyes switched to starting in mid-August and has been something of a revelation, going 4-2 with an ERA in the threes. Nuzzo has the control artist slotted in the third spot. His stuff is still developing, but he’s flashed elite control, walking more than two batters just once in his final nine starts and issuing zero free passes four times.
Minnesota’s bullpen is similarly deep and even.
Hunter Greene has been wild, but wildly effective in his 96 innings. With wipeout stuff, he’s striking out almost 13 per nine frames. He’s allowed just 67 hits against 137 strikeouts. A patient squad will be rewarded against him, though, as he walks five guys per nine innings. Still, his 2.53 FIP is even better than his ERA, and a dominant postseason could be a key to the Twins’ success.
Jake Reed has been solid in his second season as closer, with his 3.80 ERA more the story of a rough few weeks in late August and early September, when he blew four saves and his first since mid-May. He seems to have found his form again, notching four straight scoreless outings liberally peppered with Ks.
As a team, Minnesota’s 11 righties and two southpaws do much better against left handed batters.
Defensively, the Twins’ numbers are patchy. It all adds up to a better-than-average squad, though, and the additions of Yoan Moncada and Buster Posey strengthen the team. Expect solid glove work from this well-rounded group.
Questions for Jeff Thomas:
The Twins are susceptible to lefties, but you have three righty starters who are all better than Sale against lefthanded batters this year. The one weak spot might be game one starter Duran, who’s had less than stellar results against lefties. Did you consider keeping Sale in the rotation, or has he always been destined for the postseason pen?
You have Isaac Paredes penciled in as DH batting second against lefties, even though Isaiah Gilliam has better numbers. What do you like about Paredes, and if you make it past the Twins (who have no lefty starters), would you look at shuffling?
Who among your middle relievers will be key in getting to the back end of the bullpen, and who’s your guy when Dull or Lorenzen need a breather?
Questions for Ben Nuzzo:
Your outfield is stacked. Do you prefer to go with a hot bat, rotate guys in to make sure they get roughly equal plate appearances, or do you have a set pecking order?
Do you have any lingering concerns about Jake Reed’s workload, or does he seem to have sorted out whatever was wrong in August and early September?
What’s the difference between your dominant first half team and the squad that struggled somewhat in the second half?
