Post by Commissioner Erick on Oct 21, 2017 18:57:36 GMT -5
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs
The Mets and Cubs are two stellar teams squaring off for the right to move on to the NLCS. Each team won either near or over 100 games, and each team deserved those records. The resulting series should be a treat.
Cubs Offense vs Mets Pitching
The Mets were only second in runs allowed, but should be better in the playoffs as their team is healthy and won't need to use sixth starters and quad-A types in the pen. The Mets staff led baseball in strikeouts, was second in home runs allowed, second in ERA, second in FIP, second in opponents average, second in virtually all major pitching stats to the Giants.
Noah Syndergaard was either second or third in most NL pitching categories, whether it be innings, ERA, FIP, opponents average, WAR, you name it. He was first in strikeouts though, and is a legitimate ace, one of the best pitchers in baseball. It will be nearly impossible for the Cubs to string together strong at bats against him.
The Mets will also likely trot out Jacob deGrom, who was second in the NL in HR/9. deGrom also features very strong strikeout and walk rates, meaning the Cubs will have to string some hits together to score off him, which is not easy as deGrom was in the top five in opponent's average.
Matt Harvey will take a turn in the rotation. He's been above average this year, but merely above average, as he's been middle of the pack in regards to home runs, walks, and strikeouts. Because, more than his other starters, Harvey pitches up in the zone, his BABIP's against are low. Still, he was hit hard by Chicago in his only start against them.
Zach Wheeler has been a total mixed bag. He has electric stuff that plays excellent low in the zone, but his command has been erratic. His walk rates are mediocre and he's missed his spots, resulting in an elevated number of home runs. He's also working with a HR/FB rate over 20%, which is a but unlucky.
The Mets' pen is excellent. If Steven Matz doesn't land a spot in the rotation, he'll be able to work multiple innings should someone falter early. He has good stuff and excellent control, limiting mistakes. He put up a 3.25 ERA and may find his way into the rotation. He's had excellent strikeout and walk numbers against the Cubs, but did give up some home runs to them this year.
Hansel Robles may be the reliever of the year. I'd expect to see him in a game where Wheeler pitches because of Wheeler's inability to work deep into games. Robles struck out 154 batters as a relief pitcher, which is unheard of. He's often working multiple innings, and despite not throwing very hard, will not be afraid to challenge hitters up in the zone. That keeps hitters guessing, allowing hid filthy slider to finish hitters off.
Addison Reed, Jerry Blevins, and Jeurys Familia are strikeout masters in the pen. Familia and Reed have slightly elevated ERAs, but their FIPs sparkle.
The Cubs, however, have had no problems scoring against the Mets. They've destroyed their lesser pitchers, terrorized Addison Reed, and even hung the third most earned runs Syndergaard has allowed in a start this year.
That's because the Cubs are the second best team in on-base percentage, and as a result, the second best team in runs. The team has right-handed power galore. Nelson Cruz and Kris Bryant each put up at least 35 home runs, Javier Baez and Wilson Contreras combined for 37 in abbreviated seasons, and even Anthony Rizzo hit 12 home runs in only 188 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
The sheer dynamism of the lineup is a huge plus for Chicago, as they have few easy outs. Jon Jay has settled in to the leadoff spot with a .281 average and .352 on-base percentage, Jason Heyward and Addison Russell have above average strikeout and walk rates and upper teens power, and Ben Zobrist's exceptional plate coverage, and solid pop have him as an above-average hitter despite hitting only .238.
The Cubs bench is limited with Ian Happ and Alberto Almora serving as speed and defense types off the bench, though the lineup doesn't have too many absolute plodders in the lineup.
Still, Chicago can attack in waves around Kris Bryant's superstardom, and how their relentlessness matches with the Mets' will be fascinating to watch.
Mets Offense vs Cubs Pitching
The Cubs have a strong staff, though it lacks the standout talent the Mets have. It'll be facing a slightly vulnerable Mets team dealing with a few injuries.
Yoenis Cespedes, while not having a huge WAR, has been a potent power bat with 34 home runs paired with a .328 on-base percentage. He'll miss the series. Neil Walker had an excellent season with a 130 wRC+. He had 24 home runs, 36 doubles, and a .278 average. He'll miss the series. This leaves the Mets a little weak.
Outside of Michael Conforto, whose 32 home runs and .375 on-base percentage are sensational, the Mets middle of the order is now flawed. Jay Bruce bashed 27 home runs, but only hit .220. Asdrubal Cabrera had a 120 wRC+, basically the same as Cespedes, but scouts think he's playing above his head.
The injuries also trickle down. Alex Carrithers has been a nice defensive player and three doubles in his debut, but he had a .337 slugging percentage in the offensive paradise of Las Vegas. Juan Lagares hustled his way into 19 doubles but has limited pop, and Travis d'Arnaud was an uninspiring .235 with 15 home runs. It's no longer a terribly potent lineup. The Mets also won't make for it on the base paths, as Jose Reyes at 13 steals was the only person to theft more than seven stolen bases.
They'll be facing a Cubs team with four very different starting pitchers, that have either been effective or have pedigree.
Jon Lester led the league in wins, and is red hot with two straight shutouts to end the year. He has a sparkling walk rate, doesn't give up many home runs, strikes out a fair share, and is basically the definition of strong, sturdy, and reliable. He hurt himself in his first start against the Mets, but worked 7.1 allowing three runs, on eight hits and two walks, fanning six in a win.
Kyle Hendricks loves the strike zone. He led the league in walk rate by a mile and dominates teams that love to be ultra patient. He issued only 26 walks in over 220 innings. However, Conforto and Cabrera took him deep in a short start against the Mets. New York's lineup is more power based than on-base percentage based, so seeing how Hendrick fares will be interesting.
Mike Montgomery is the extreme groundballer. Among pitchers with 162 innings or more, he led in groundball rate. He rode the grounders to a fifth place NL finish in ERA with 2.99. He doesn't strike out many batters and will walk guys, but with the Cubs' spectacular defense, it didn't come back to bite him. He allowed multiple home runs in a game only once—and you guessed it, it was against the Mets with Michael Conforto taking him deep twice.
Jake Arrieta dealt with a torn meniscus mid-season, leading to an abbreviated campaign. When he's right, he's keeping the ball on the ground and racking up strikeouts as a premier pitcher. He's allowed only one long ball in 58.1 innings, but he's walked 10.2% of hitters, which is a little elevated, leading to a 4.32 ERA in his limited starts.
The Cubs have a deep bullpen. Wade Davis may miss the opener, working his way back from shoulder inflammation the team does not believe to be serious. Davis walks a ton of guys, but he struck out 98 in 66 innings and he converted 34 of his 35 save opportunities.
Pedro Strop and Justin Grimm each fired ERAs under 3, leading to reliability late in games. The Cubs also traded for David Robertson, and while he struggled in a Cubs uniform, he strikes out a ton of hitters and keeps the ball in the park, with only three home runs given up this season.
Brian Duensing had a strong season as the designated left-hander, while Pierre Johnson and Alec Mills had strong seasons with ERAs in the threes and will be counted on in long relief.
Season Series
The Cubs won four of six, including a home sweep in September. They averaged six runs a game as well, showing that they aren't afraid of the Mets' staff. The Mets only got one quality start despite Syndergaard, Harvey, deGrom, and Wheeler starting the games. Contreras, Rizzo, and Baez each had an OPS over 1.000, with Jason Heyward and Jon Jay the only hitters who struggled. Even Heyward had a tying home run in the 10th inning of a game off Addison Reed.
The Mets bullpen had a 6.19 ERA against the Cubs in the season series. The bright spots had to be Conforto with three home runs and Cabrera with nine RBI's against the Cubs this season.
Prediction:
The Cubs can put up some runs against the Mets starters, but the Mets' ability to do the same is limited. Syndergaard will win a game and the Mets will tag Hendricks, but will lose a low-scoring affair. Cubs in 6.
San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates-Dodgers Wild Card game was a huge mismatch that the Pirates overcame to make it to the Divisional Series. They'll have to buck the odds in an even bigger mismatch to make it to the NLCS.
Pirates Offense vs Giants Pitching
We know about the Pirates offense. It was a contact-oriented team, light on power, that beat Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers by not making contact but cracking two home runs for its only two hits. The Giants will be throwing two left handers which helps the Pirates cause as they perform better against lefties. Still, it's not an incredibly dynamic offense.
The big surprise was Jung-ho Kang being the man to beat Kershaw. Kang had a .560 OPS and was an abomination the entire season with a .166 average. If he can be a guy providing pop from the bottom of the order, it provides Pittsburgh with a power threat from the bottom of the order they wouldn't otherwise have.
Gregory Polanco will miss at least two, maybe three games in the series, which may not be the worst thing as the Giants will likely unfurl Madison Bumgarner and Drew Smyly in Games 1 and 3. Polanco did have a .756 OPS against lefties, but Alen Hanson played right field and hit lefties well. He's an adequate replacement.
Still, it's an offense that relies heavily on Josh Bell's heroics against right-handers, Andrew McCutchen's power against left-handers, and stringing together hits on balls in play to score. That's tough against a Giants team that features the best pitching in baseball, and an elite defense. The Giants were first or second in efficiency, errors committed, and zone rating. They didn't throw runners out well, but were third in fewest attempts, meaning they discouraged the running game except for runners who knew they could be successful. They make it tough for teams like Pittsburgh to score runs.
That means the Pirates will need to try to bash the ball against an overwhelming pitching staff. Madison Bumgarner, along with Kershaw and the Mets' Noah Syndergaard, is one of the premier hurlers in the National League. He won 20 games. He led the league in WHIP. He led the league in innings. He was third in ERA, third in FIP, third in WAR, third in walk rate, fourth in strikeout rate, first in opponent's batting average, the accolades are endless. He's gone 8 or more innings in five of his last six starts and has no problems with pitching deep.
The Giants will throw Jeff Samardzija out in Game 2, and he's perfect for the team the Giants have assembled. He doesn't strike out too many hitters, but he walks nobody, forcing teams to hit the ball around San Francisco's defense. As a result, Samardzjia allowed the lowest BABIP in the league. Right-handers hit better than left handers against him, which is a welcome encouragement for the Pirates, though it will still be tough to score on him.
Drew Smyly was spectacular as a Giant, winning 14 of his 16 decisions as a Giant. He pitched very well late in the season particularly, and works with San Francisco's theme of having pitchers who don't walk anybody. Lowing the qualifier to 100 innings and capturing only Smyly's work as a Giant, he finished third in walk rate, slotting in between Kershaw and Bumgarner. He has elite control, and was seventh in strikeout rate as well. Being left-handed gives the Pirates a bit of hope, but his own splits against lefties and righties were very similar.
The fourth spot in the rotation is up in the air. Drew Pomeranz has a strained arm and will likely be pitching out of the bullpen as a result. He had a league average walk rate and gave up a touch more home runs than you'd like, but wasn't egregious in any way. He struck out a bunch of guys with his curveball and had a weird reverse platoon split this season. He should be strong out of the pen.
That leaves a decision between Matt Cain and Johnny Cueto, and early odds have the Giants leaning towards Cain. Cueto has excellent stuff, but struggled to a 5.19 ERA. He also didn't walk anyone, but didn't strike out many guys and the Giants defense didn't work as pristinely behind him. Some of that may be the vagaries of BABIP, but with other options, the Giants will elect to take the field.
Matt Cain was an All-Star this year despite being banged up with a sore back and bum elbow this year. He went 7-1 by getting hitters to hit a lot of balls up in the air that landed in outfielder's gloves. Cain has good control and doesn't strike many guys out. His ground ball rate was second lowest among NL pitchers who worked 100 innings. The Pirates want to smack a lot of line drives and singles. Cain will dare them to beat him by hitting fly balls over the fence.
The Pirates have a good bullpen, especially with Cueto and Pomeranz a part of it. Derek Law will work only to righties, and he allowed same-side hitters to hit to a .480 OPS in 80 plate appearances. Joel Osich is a lefty who allowed lefties to hit for an OPS of 200 points higher than righties. Along with Pomeranz, there will be some weird reverse platoon splits out of the Giants pen, which is a good against Pittsburgh's righty-dominant lineup until Polanco returns.
The back of the pen is exceptional. Will Smith had the second highest strikeout rate of any pitcher who pitched over 50 innings. He struck out almost 40% of batters. Hunter Strickland won 10 games with an ERA a tick under 3. He keeps the ball in the park, has strong control, and throws 100 miles an hour.
Mark Melancon led the league in saves, and simply doesn't give up hits. His .237 opponents BABIP was fourth in the league among pitchers who threw 50 innings. Hitters hit .187 against him on the whole. It would be extremely tough for the Pirates to string together hits against him, as well as anyone in the pen. If the Pirates want to win, they'll likely need to do it with their pitching, because their hitting appears overmatched.
Giants Hitting vs Pirates Pitching
The Giants are also a team that does not rely on the long ball to score runs. They were second to last in home runs and their best power hitter is out for the series. Also, their best hitter for average, Michael Brantley, is hamstrung with a thumb injury that affects his ability to hit.
The Giants were second in average though, and have few non-entities in that department. Jae-gyun Hwang and Gorkys Hernandez are two of three hitters who hit below .275, and they hit in the bottom of the order. The other hitter is Buster Posey who had an uncharacteristically awful year, but hit over .300 in August and September. It's nonetheless not a great offense.
The flip side is that Pittsburgh's staff is a mess right now. Chad Kuhl and Ivan Nova have ERAs over 5, and Nova and Kuhl have painfully low strikeout rates. Gerrit Cole can dial back and uncork a gem every now and then. He has the stuff, the command, and as he showed against the Dodgers, some postseason moxie. It's the fact that he may not get two starts in the series, and the rest of the staff that doesn't inspire confidence.
If the Pirates can keep it close, their bullpen is strong. Edgar Santana, Juan Nicasio, and Felipe Rivero worked 2 scoreless innings with four strikeouts against the Dodgers (Antonio Bastardo also worked and allowed a walk as he battles injury). The bullpen though is one that walks everybody and the Giants are fine waiting out wild pitchers as they don't strike out often. Also, Pittsburgh's defense is questionable and committed two errors in the Wild Card Game.
Season Series
The Giants won four of six games against the Pirates, including scoring a bunch of runs. They battered Clay Holmes for 10 hits and seven runs in one start, though he also put up 8 innings of one-run ball in another. A 14-run outburst by the Giants was fueled by Brandon Belt, who will not be available for this game.
Will Smith's only loss for the Giants came when Gregory Polanco took him deep for a three-run home run in an 8-7 win the Giants almost came back from, but the story of the series is San Francisco scoring runs against Pittsburgh's back end starters and also their better relievers.
Prediction:
The Giants have the better staff and the hitters to take advantage of shaky defense. Pittsburgh doesn't have a playoff caliber staff, nor the hitters to overcome top-flight San Francisco pitching. Giants in 5.
The Mets and Cubs are two stellar teams squaring off for the right to move on to the NLCS. Each team won either near or over 100 games, and each team deserved those records. The resulting series should be a treat.
Cubs Offense vs Mets Pitching
The Mets were only second in runs allowed, but should be better in the playoffs as their team is healthy and won't need to use sixth starters and quad-A types in the pen. The Mets staff led baseball in strikeouts, was second in home runs allowed, second in ERA, second in FIP, second in opponents average, second in virtually all major pitching stats to the Giants.
Noah Syndergaard was either second or third in most NL pitching categories, whether it be innings, ERA, FIP, opponents average, WAR, you name it. He was first in strikeouts though, and is a legitimate ace, one of the best pitchers in baseball. It will be nearly impossible for the Cubs to string together strong at bats against him.
The Mets will also likely trot out Jacob deGrom, who was second in the NL in HR/9. deGrom also features very strong strikeout and walk rates, meaning the Cubs will have to string some hits together to score off him, which is not easy as deGrom was in the top five in opponent's average.
Matt Harvey will take a turn in the rotation. He's been above average this year, but merely above average, as he's been middle of the pack in regards to home runs, walks, and strikeouts. Because, more than his other starters, Harvey pitches up in the zone, his BABIP's against are low. Still, he was hit hard by Chicago in his only start against them.
Zach Wheeler has been a total mixed bag. He has electric stuff that plays excellent low in the zone, but his command has been erratic. His walk rates are mediocre and he's missed his spots, resulting in an elevated number of home runs. He's also working with a HR/FB rate over 20%, which is a but unlucky.
The Mets' pen is excellent. If Steven Matz doesn't land a spot in the rotation, he'll be able to work multiple innings should someone falter early. He has good stuff and excellent control, limiting mistakes. He put up a 3.25 ERA and may find his way into the rotation. He's had excellent strikeout and walk numbers against the Cubs, but did give up some home runs to them this year.
Hansel Robles may be the reliever of the year. I'd expect to see him in a game where Wheeler pitches because of Wheeler's inability to work deep into games. Robles struck out 154 batters as a relief pitcher, which is unheard of. He's often working multiple innings, and despite not throwing very hard, will not be afraid to challenge hitters up in the zone. That keeps hitters guessing, allowing hid filthy slider to finish hitters off.
Addison Reed, Jerry Blevins, and Jeurys Familia are strikeout masters in the pen. Familia and Reed have slightly elevated ERAs, but their FIPs sparkle.
The Cubs, however, have had no problems scoring against the Mets. They've destroyed their lesser pitchers, terrorized Addison Reed, and even hung the third most earned runs Syndergaard has allowed in a start this year.
That's because the Cubs are the second best team in on-base percentage, and as a result, the second best team in runs. The team has right-handed power galore. Nelson Cruz and Kris Bryant each put up at least 35 home runs, Javier Baez and Wilson Contreras combined for 37 in abbreviated seasons, and even Anthony Rizzo hit 12 home runs in only 188 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
The sheer dynamism of the lineup is a huge plus for Chicago, as they have few easy outs. Jon Jay has settled in to the leadoff spot with a .281 average and .352 on-base percentage, Jason Heyward and Addison Russell have above average strikeout and walk rates and upper teens power, and Ben Zobrist's exceptional plate coverage, and solid pop have him as an above-average hitter despite hitting only .238.
The Cubs bench is limited with Ian Happ and Alberto Almora serving as speed and defense types off the bench, though the lineup doesn't have too many absolute plodders in the lineup.
Still, Chicago can attack in waves around Kris Bryant's superstardom, and how their relentlessness matches with the Mets' will be fascinating to watch.
Mets Offense vs Cubs Pitching
The Cubs have a strong staff, though it lacks the standout talent the Mets have. It'll be facing a slightly vulnerable Mets team dealing with a few injuries.
Yoenis Cespedes, while not having a huge WAR, has been a potent power bat with 34 home runs paired with a .328 on-base percentage. He'll miss the series. Neil Walker had an excellent season with a 130 wRC+. He had 24 home runs, 36 doubles, and a .278 average. He'll miss the series. This leaves the Mets a little weak.
Outside of Michael Conforto, whose 32 home runs and .375 on-base percentage are sensational, the Mets middle of the order is now flawed. Jay Bruce bashed 27 home runs, but only hit .220. Asdrubal Cabrera had a 120 wRC+, basically the same as Cespedes, but scouts think he's playing above his head.
The injuries also trickle down. Alex Carrithers has been a nice defensive player and three doubles in his debut, but he had a .337 slugging percentage in the offensive paradise of Las Vegas. Juan Lagares hustled his way into 19 doubles but has limited pop, and Travis d'Arnaud was an uninspiring .235 with 15 home runs. It's no longer a terribly potent lineup. The Mets also won't make for it on the base paths, as Jose Reyes at 13 steals was the only person to theft more than seven stolen bases.
They'll be facing a Cubs team with four very different starting pitchers, that have either been effective or have pedigree.
Jon Lester led the league in wins, and is red hot with two straight shutouts to end the year. He has a sparkling walk rate, doesn't give up many home runs, strikes out a fair share, and is basically the definition of strong, sturdy, and reliable. He hurt himself in his first start against the Mets, but worked 7.1 allowing three runs, on eight hits and two walks, fanning six in a win.
Kyle Hendricks loves the strike zone. He led the league in walk rate by a mile and dominates teams that love to be ultra patient. He issued only 26 walks in over 220 innings. However, Conforto and Cabrera took him deep in a short start against the Mets. New York's lineup is more power based than on-base percentage based, so seeing how Hendrick fares will be interesting.
Mike Montgomery is the extreme groundballer. Among pitchers with 162 innings or more, he led in groundball rate. He rode the grounders to a fifth place NL finish in ERA with 2.99. He doesn't strike out many batters and will walk guys, but with the Cubs' spectacular defense, it didn't come back to bite him. He allowed multiple home runs in a game only once—and you guessed it, it was against the Mets with Michael Conforto taking him deep twice.
Jake Arrieta dealt with a torn meniscus mid-season, leading to an abbreviated campaign. When he's right, he's keeping the ball on the ground and racking up strikeouts as a premier pitcher. He's allowed only one long ball in 58.1 innings, but he's walked 10.2% of hitters, which is a little elevated, leading to a 4.32 ERA in his limited starts.
The Cubs have a deep bullpen. Wade Davis may miss the opener, working his way back from shoulder inflammation the team does not believe to be serious. Davis walks a ton of guys, but he struck out 98 in 66 innings and he converted 34 of his 35 save opportunities.
Pedro Strop and Justin Grimm each fired ERAs under 3, leading to reliability late in games. The Cubs also traded for David Robertson, and while he struggled in a Cubs uniform, he strikes out a ton of hitters and keeps the ball in the park, with only three home runs given up this season.
Brian Duensing had a strong season as the designated left-hander, while Pierre Johnson and Alec Mills had strong seasons with ERAs in the threes and will be counted on in long relief.
Season Series
The Cubs won four of six, including a home sweep in September. They averaged six runs a game as well, showing that they aren't afraid of the Mets' staff. The Mets only got one quality start despite Syndergaard, Harvey, deGrom, and Wheeler starting the games. Contreras, Rizzo, and Baez each had an OPS over 1.000, with Jason Heyward and Jon Jay the only hitters who struggled. Even Heyward had a tying home run in the 10th inning of a game off Addison Reed.
The Mets bullpen had a 6.19 ERA against the Cubs in the season series. The bright spots had to be Conforto with three home runs and Cabrera with nine RBI's against the Cubs this season.
Prediction:
The Cubs can put up some runs against the Mets starters, but the Mets' ability to do the same is limited. Syndergaard will win a game and the Mets will tag Hendricks, but will lose a low-scoring affair. Cubs in 6.
San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates-Dodgers Wild Card game was a huge mismatch that the Pirates overcame to make it to the Divisional Series. They'll have to buck the odds in an even bigger mismatch to make it to the NLCS.
Pirates Offense vs Giants Pitching
We know about the Pirates offense. It was a contact-oriented team, light on power, that beat Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers by not making contact but cracking two home runs for its only two hits. The Giants will be throwing two left handers which helps the Pirates cause as they perform better against lefties. Still, it's not an incredibly dynamic offense.
The big surprise was Jung-ho Kang being the man to beat Kershaw. Kang had a .560 OPS and was an abomination the entire season with a .166 average. If he can be a guy providing pop from the bottom of the order, it provides Pittsburgh with a power threat from the bottom of the order they wouldn't otherwise have.
Gregory Polanco will miss at least two, maybe three games in the series, which may not be the worst thing as the Giants will likely unfurl Madison Bumgarner and Drew Smyly in Games 1 and 3. Polanco did have a .756 OPS against lefties, but Alen Hanson played right field and hit lefties well. He's an adequate replacement.
Still, it's an offense that relies heavily on Josh Bell's heroics against right-handers, Andrew McCutchen's power against left-handers, and stringing together hits on balls in play to score. That's tough against a Giants team that features the best pitching in baseball, and an elite defense. The Giants were first or second in efficiency, errors committed, and zone rating. They didn't throw runners out well, but were third in fewest attempts, meaning they discouraged the running game except for runners who knew they could be successful. They make it tough for teams like Pittsburgh to score runs.
That means the Pirates will need to try to bash the ball against an overwhelming pitching staff. Madison Bumgarner, along with Kershaw and the Mets' Noah Syndergaard, is one of the premier hurlers in the National League. He won 20 games. He led the league in WHIP. He led the league in innings. He was third in ERA, third in FIP, third in WAR, third in walk rate, fourth in strikeout rate, first in opponent's batting average, the accolades are endless. He's gone 8 or more innings in five of his last six starts and has no problems with pitching deep.
The Giants will throw Jeff Samardzija out in Game 2, and he's perfect for the team the Giants have assembled. He doesn't strike out too many hitters, but he walks nobody, forcing teams to hit the ball around San Francisco's defense. As a result, Samardzjia allowed the lowest BABIP in the league. Right-handers hit better than left handers against him, which is a welcome encouragement for the Pirates, though it will still be tough to score on him.
Drew Smyly was spectacular as a Giant, winning 14 of his 16 decisions as a Giant. He pitched very well late in the season particularly, and works with San Francisco's theme of having pitchers who don't walk anybody. Lowing the qualifier to 100 innings and capturing only Smyly's work as a Giant, he finished third in walk rate, slotting in between Kershaw and Bumgarner. He has elite control, and was seventh in strikeout rate as well. Being left-handed gives the Pirates a bit of hope, but his own splits against lefties and righties were very similar.
The fourth spot in the rotation is up in the air. Drew Pomeranz has a strained arm and will likely be pitching out of the bullpen as a result. He had a league average walk rate and gave up a touch more home runs than you'd like, but wasn't egregious in any way. He struck out a bunch of guys with his curveball and had a weird reverse platoon split this season. He should be strong out of the pen.
That leaves a decision between Matt Cain and Johnny Cueto, and early odds have the Giants leaning towards Cain. Cueto has excellent stuff, but struggled to a 5.19 ERA. He also didn't walk anyone, but didn't strike out many guys and the Giants defense didn't work as pristinely behind him. Some of that may be the vagaries of BABIP, but with other options, the Giants will elect to take the field.
Matt Cain was an All-Star this year despite being banged up with a sore back and bum elbow this year. He went 7-1 by getting hitters to hit a lot of balls up in the air that landed in outfielder's gloves. Cain has good control and doesn't strike many guys out. His ground ball rate was second lowest among NL pitchers who worked 100 innings. The Pirates want to smack a lot of line drives and singles. Cain will dare them to beat him by hitting fly balls over the fence.
The Pirates have a good bullpen, especially with Cueto and Pomeranz a part of it. Derek Law will work only to righties, and he allowed same-side hitters to hit to a .480 OPS in 80 plate appearances. Joel Osich is a lefty who allowed lefties to hit for an OPS of 200 points higher than righties. Along with Pomeranz, there will be some weird reverse platoon splits out of the Giants pen, which is a good against Pittsburgh's righty-dominant lineup until Polanco returns.
The back of the pen is exceptional. Will Smith had the second highest strikeout rate of any pitcher who pitched over 50 innings. He struck out almost 40% of batters. Hunter Strickland won 10 games with an ERA a tick under 3. He keeps the ball in the park, has strong control, and throws 100 miles an hour.
Mark Melancon led the league in saves, and simply doesn't give up hits. His .237 opponents BABIP was fourth in the league among pitchers who threw 50 innings. Hitters hit .187 against him on the whole. It would be extremely tough for the Pirates to string together hits against him, as well as anyone in the pen. If the Pirates want to win, they'll likely need to do it with their pitching, because their hitting appears overmatched.
Giants Hitting vs Pirates Pitching
The Giants are also a team that does not rely on the long ball to score runs. They were second to last in home runs and their best power hitter is out for the series. Also, their best hitter for average, Michael Brantley, is hamstrung with a thumb injury that affects his ability to hit.
The Giants were second in average though, and have few non-entities in that department. Jae-gyun Hwang and Gorkys Hernandez are two of three hitters who hit below .275, and they hit in the bottom of the order. The other hitter is Buster Posey who had an uncharacteristically awful year, but hit over .300 in August and September. It's nonetheless not a great offense.
The flip side is that Pittsburgh's staff is a mess right now. Chad Kuhl and Ivan Nova have ERAs over 5, and Nova and Kuhl have painfully low strikeout rates. Gerrit Cole can dial back and uncork a gem every now and then. He has the stuff, the command, and as he showed against the Dodgers, some postseason moxie. It's the fact that he may not get two starts in the series, and the rest of the staff that doesn't inspire confidence.
If the Pirates can keep it close, their bullpen is strong. Edgar Santana, Juan Nicasio, and Felipe Rivero worked 2 scoreless innings with four strikeouts against the Dodgers (Antonio Bastardo also worked and allowed a walk as he battles injury). The bullpen though is one that walks everybody and the Giants are fine waiting out wild pitchers as they don't strike out often. Also, Pittsburgh's defense is questionable and committed two errors in the Wild Card Game.
Season Series
The Giants won four of six games against the Pirates, including scoring a bunch of runs. They battered Clay Holmes for 10 hits and seven runs in one start, though he also put up 8 innings of one-run ball in another. A 14-run outburst by the Giants was fueled by Brandon Belt, who will not be available for this game.
Will Smith's only loss for the Giants came when Gregory Polanco took him deep for a three-run home run in an 8-7 win the Giants almost came back from, but the story of the series is San Francisco scoring runs against Pittsburgh's back end starters and also their better relievers.
Prediction:
The Giants have the better staff and the hitters to take advantage of shaky defense. Pittsburgh doesn't have a playoff caliber staff, nor the hitters to overcome top-flight San Francisco pitching. Giants in 5.