Post by Commissioner Erick on Oct 26, 2017 18:42:34 GMT -5
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets
Unsurprisingly, the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets have gotten to the NLCS behind their pitching. The Mets have allowed a .575 OPS in the postseason so far, with the Giants doing a touch better at .574. Whichever teams plays better defense and hits better will likely be the National League representative in the World Series.
Giants Offense vs Mets Pitching
The Mets pitching had a strong regular season, and at times, was dominant in the NLCS. Despite facing a tough Chicago Cubs offense, the Mets worked to an ERA just a touch over 3 for the series. Aside from Jerry Blevins, the bullpen worked 17 shutout against the Cubs, and Blevins himself had a FIP of 2.01 in the round. It's a good staff, and that's just the bullpen.
The starting staff struggled more than expected, and even then, Jacob deGrom had a 3.45 ERA and Noah Syndergaard had a bad start on short rest. Matt Harvey was excellent in his outing, and if the Mets need another arm, Steven Matz pitched a no-hitter against the Giants this season. He also allowed just two of the 18 batters he faced in the NLDS to reach base via a hit or walk. It's a good staff, and the defense didn't allow an error behind them.
They'll have their hands full with a Giants team that had no trouble scoring in the NLDS and is getting Brandon Belt back. Only three players didn't have a wRC+ above 100, and two of those players cranked home runs during the Divisional Round. The final, Gorkys Hernandez, will likely be replaced by Che-Hsuan Lin, back in time for the NLCS from a torn meniscus.
Though he had an excellent series against the Pirates, Jae-Gyun Hwang will likely take a seat in the Championship Series. The switch from Hwang to Belt simply makes the Giants much more dynamic. Michael Brantley, despite a bad thumb, hit .409 in the Division Round, with Christian Arroyo hitting .351. Those two hitters with tremendous batting skills hitting in front of Belt's power gives San Francisco a potent top of the order.
The Giants are also seeing their middle of the order take shape. Brandon Crawford is hitting .287 on the year with five home runs since he returned from injury, and he hit over .380 in the Divisional Round. Buster Posey continues to perform well in the second half of the year, producing a .364 average over the series. After months of injuries and ineffectiveness neutering the potential of an offense that turned out pretty good, the Giants are finding an extra gear.
The Giants are prone to being baffled by the sheer stuff of the Mets' staff. Noah Syndergaard had two strong starts against the club, Matz had his no-hitter, and one of Matt Harvey's stats was strong, though another was mediocre. However, the Giants also did well against Harvey the second time they saw him, and they had success against the Mets pen. Addison Reed took a loss in a start, while Jeurys Familia blew two saves.
The Mets defense, strong against the Cubs, may see itself weakened during the NLCS. Neil Walker's return to health will likely see him in the starting lineup after Game 3, moving slick-gloved Alden Carrithers to the bench. That defense will be tested as the Giants only struck out 27 times in the NLDS and had the best strikeout rate in the regular season. Their strikeout rate against the Mets was only 20% in the regular season, which would have been sixth place, despite the majority of the team's plate appearances coming against Matz, Harvey, Syndergaard, Reed, and Familia. The series may hinge on the Mets defense.
Mets Offense vs Giants Pitching
Outside of an aberrational Game 2, the Giants dominated their series with the Pirates. They shrank to a three-man rotation, and Madison Bumgarner, Drew Smyly, and Jeff Samardzija rocked and rolled to a five game win. The left-handed slant of their rotation makes it a pretty big deal that Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker will be back for the Mets.
Juan Lagares and Alden Carrithers will likely be sent to the bench with Cespedes and Walker back. They were second and third in batting average for the Mets during the NLDS, however those averages were empty and fluky as well. The Cubs wanted no part of Michael Conforto, walking him nine times in 24 plate appearances. That's harder to do with more potent bats surrounding him.
Wilmer Flores stepped up in the Division Series though. He had a .364 average with two home runs in the series, both in Game 2, including what turned out to be the game winner. He had a 142 wRC+ against lefties this year, which may allow him to stay in the lineup against the Giants.
In fact, maybe Lagares does stay in the linup himself as he led the team in wRC+ against lefties and is also a standout defender. Jay Bruce and Lucas Duda were awful against lefties, so maybe a platoon is what Nigel Laverick has in mind? How the Mets' lineup shakes out is a fascinating question.
The Mets may need to play the advantages. They're strong in strikeout rate and home runs hit, so they don't need to trade off contact for power. They may need to focus on that power as the Giants strong defense should be even stronger with Che-Hsuan Lin back. Lin was having a Gold Glove caliber year before tearing his knee in June. He says he's ready to go and will give San Francisco an otherworldly defensive option in center, relegating the underwhelming Gorkys Hernandez to the bench.
The Mets' depth will be a nice boost. They'll have defensive options, righty or lefty bats, and speed to turn to depending on what lineups they turn to. That will help them play situational baseball if they need to.
Season Series
The teams split six games this year, with each taking two of three at home. Five of the six games were pretty low scoring. The Mets got a no-hitter from Steven Matz, but also saw Harvey, Jerry Blevins, and Familia pitch strongly in a 3-1 win that allowed the Mets to take two of three in May. The Giants got a Grand Slam from Brandon Belt off Familia in the ninth to win the middle game of that series.
In June, Bumgarner went 8 shutout innings, outdueling Syndergaard and allowing the Giants to squeak by 3-1.
The Giants won that series the next day in a wild affair. After Mark Melancon blew a save when Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes went back-to-back in the ninth inning of a game, San Francisco answered with a Gorkys Hernandez single to tie the game off Familia in the bottom of the ninth. Cory Gearrin retired Dom Smith with a runner on third and one out before striking out Cespedes to preserve the tie in the eleventh. Denard Span sent the Giants home with a win, cranking a walk-off two run home run off Reed in the bottom of the eleventh.
The Mets salvaged a season split the next day when Dom Smith homered among three hits, and the Mets battered Johnny Cueto and Bryan Morris for nine runs in a 10-8 Mets win.
Key Questions
Will the Giants be able to make a lot of contact against the Mets' fireballers. If so, will the Mets defense be up to the task of facing a lot of balls in play?
The Mets bullpen has been awesome this postseason, but has struggled against the Giants. What will give?
How will the injured players fare in their return to game action?
Prediction: The Giants will string together enough contact to challenge a Mets defense that can be shaky at times. That will be the difference in a close-fought Giants win. Giants in 6.
Unsurprisingly, the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets have gotten to the NLCS behind their pitching. The Mets have allowed a .575 OPS in the postseason so far, with the Giants doing a touch better at .574. Whichever teams plays better defense and hits better will likely be the National League representative in the World Series.
Giants Offense vs Mets Pitching
The Mets pitching had a strong regular season, and at times, was dominant in the NLCS. Despite facing a tough Chicago Cubs offense, the Mets worked to an ERA just a touch over 3 for the series. Aside from Jerry Blevins, the bullpen worked 17 shutout against the Cubs, and Blevins himself had a FIP of 2.01 in the round. It's a good staff, and that's just the bullpen.
The starting staff struggled more than expected, and even then, Jacob deGrom had a 3.45 ERA and Noah Syndergaard had a bad start on short rest. Matt Harvey was excellent in his outing, and if the Mets need another arm, Steven Matz pitched a no-hitter against the Giants this season. He also allowed just two of the 18 batters he faced in the NLDS to reach base via a hit or walk. It's a good staff, and the defense didn't allow an error behind them.
They'll have their hands full with a Giants team that had no trouble scoring in the NLDS and is getting Brandon Belt back. Only three players didn't have a wRC+ above 100, and two of those players cranked home runs during the Divisional Round. The final, Gorkys Hernandez, will likely be replaced by Che-Hsuan Lin, back in time for the NLCS from a torn meniscus.
Though he had an excellent series against the Pirates, Jae-Gyun Hwang will likely take a seat in the Championship Series. The switch from Hwang to Belt simply makes the Giants much more dynamic. Michael Brantley, despite a bad thumb, hit .409 in the Division Round, with Christian Arroyo hitting .351. Those two hitters with tremendous batting skills hitting in front of Belt's power gives San Francisco a potent top of the order.
The Giants are also seeing their middle of the order take shape. Brandon Crawford is hitting .287 on the year with five home runs since he returned from injury, and he hit over .380 in the Divisional Round. Buster Posey continues to perform well in the second half of the year, producing a .364 average over the series. After months of injuries and ineffectiveness neutering the potential of an offense that turned out pretty good, the Giants are finding an extra gear.
The Giants are prone to being baffled by the sheer stuff of the Mets' staff. Noah Syndergaard had two strong starts against the club, Matz had his no-hitter, and one of Matt Harvey's stats was strong, though another was mediocre. However, the Giants also did well against Harvey the second time they saw him, and they had success against the Mets pen. Addison Reed took a loss in a start, while Jeurys Familia blew two saves.
The Mets defense, strong against the Cubs, may see itself weakened during the NLCS. Neil Walker's return to health will likely see him in the starting lineup after Game 3, moving slick-gloved Alden Carrithers to the bench. That defense will be tested as the Giants only struck out 27 times in the NLDS and had the best strikeout rate in the regular season. Their strikeout rate against the Mets was only 20% in the regular season, which would have been sixth place, despite the majority of the team's plate appearances coming against Matz, Harvey, Syndergaard, Reed, and Familia. The series may hinge on the Mets defense.
Mets Offense vs Giants Pitching
Outside of an aberrational Game 2, the Giants dominated their series with the Pirates. They shrank to a three-man rotation, and Madison Bumgarner, Drew Smyly, and Jeff Samardzija rocked and rolled to a five game win. The left-handed slant of their rotation makes it a pretty big deal that Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker will be back for the Mets.
Juan Lagares and Alden Carrithers will likely be sent to the bench with Cespedes and Walker back. They were second and third in batting average for the Mets during the NLDS, however those averages were empty and fluky as well. The Cubs wanted no part of Michael Conforto, walking him nine times in 24 plate appearances. That's harder to do with more potent bats surrounding him.
Wilmer Flores stepped up in the Division Series though. He had a .364 average with two home runs in the series, both in Game 2, including what turned out to be the game winner. He had a 142 wRC+ against lefties this year, which may allow him to stay in the lineup against the Giants.
In fact, maybe Lagares does stay in the linup himself as he led the team in wRC+ against lefties and is also a standout defender. Jay Bruce and Lucas Duda were awful against lefties, so maybe a platoon is what Nigel Laverick has in mind? How the Mets' lineup shakes out is a fascinating question.
The Mets may need to play the advantages. They're strong in strikeout rate and home runs hit, so they don't need to trade off contact for power. They may need to focus on that power as the Giants strong defense should be even stronger with Che-Hsuan Lin back. Lin was having a Gold Glove caliber year before tearing his knee in June. He says he's ready to go and will give San Francisco an otherworldly defensive option in center, relegating the underwhelming Gorkys Hernandez to the bench.
The Mets' depth will be a nice boost. They'll have defensive options, righty or lefty bats, and speed to turn to depending on what lineups they turn to. That will help them play situational baseball if they need to.
Season Series
The teams split six games this year, with each taking two of three at home. Five of the six games were pretty low scoring. The Mets got a no-hitter from Steven Matz, but also saw Harvey, Jerry Blevins, and Familia pitch strongly in a 3-1 win that allowed the Mets to take two of three in May. The Giants got a Grand Slam from Brandon Belt off Familia in the ninth to win the middle game of that series.
In June, Bumgarner went 8 shutout innings, outdueling Syndergaard and allowing the Giants to squeak by 3-1.
The Giants won that series the next day in a wild affair. After Mark Melancon blew a save when Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes went back-to-back in the ninth inning of a game, San Francisco answered with a Gorkys Hernandez single to tie the game off Familia in the bottom of the ninth. Cory Gearrin retired Dom Smith with a runner on third and one out before striking out Cespedes to preserve the tie in the eleventh. Denard Span sent the Giants home with a win, cranking a walk-off two run home run off Reed in the bottom of the eleventh.
The Mets salvaged a season split the next day when Dom Smith homered among three hits, and the Mets battered Johnny Cueto and Bryan Morris for nine runs in a 10-8 Mets win.
Key Questions
Will the Giants be able to make a lot of contact against the Mets' fireballers. If so, will the Mets defense be up to the task of facing a lot of balls in play?
The Mets bullpen has been awesome this postseason, but has struggled against the Giants. What will give?
How will the injured players fare in their return to game action?
Prediction: The Giants will string together enough contact to challenge a Mets defense that can be shaky at times. That will be the difference in a close-fought Giants win. Giants in 6.