Post by Commissioner Erick on Jul 5, 2023 16:36:44 GMT -5
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals
The last two years for the St. Louis Cardinals have seen their ends of seasons end in despair. In 2028, they blew a ninth inning lead in the Wild Card Game to be eliminated from the playoffs by the San Francisco Giants. Last year, the team was swept by Milwaukee the final week of the year, preventing the club from tying the Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks for a Wild Card spot.
This year, the club is surging down the stretch. They won 13 straight to claim Home Field in the Wild Card Game, then flew High to complete a comeback over San Francisco to punch a ticket to the NLDS for the first time in their history.
Their reward, a showdown with a Milwaukee Brewers team still on top of a historic run. The club has won 108+ games for six years straight, and took the NL Central again by a comfortable margin. However, Milwaukee’s offense was a touch underwhelming, the club is banged up from the right-side of the plate, and their ace staff has appeared more vulnerable this year than ever.
It amounts to what should be a fantastic NLDS.
Brewers Offense versus Cardinals Pitching
Milwaukee has traditionally been an elite offense, weighted heavily towards crushing right-handed pitching. That’s become more balanced over time, but this year’s edition comes with more questions than Milwaukee has had in some time. The offense is less dynamic than it’s been in past years, and injuries affect a pair of right-handed hitters for the club. The team will have far more left-handed hitting talent available to it than right-handed.
The team also had less high-end seasons. Rodolfo Rivera was still excellent, but he hit 16 fewer homers than last year with a nearly 100 point loss in OPS. Grant Stein walked a lot, but hit just .227 with 17 homers, down from last year’s .289 average with 22 homers. Only Mike Perches got it done with both average and power over a full-year sample, clubbing 33 homers with a .310 average.
It’s still a capable offense. Only Zack Prajzner and Elih Marrero didn’t hit for power, and Prajzner had an excellent walk rate. There’s still good power and flexibility, and the best walk rate in the league. However, the superstar talent doesn’t appear quite there.
This is good news for St. Louis’ bullpen approach. The Cards have more righties than lefties, so they’ll use Nick Vespi, Jarod Widdison, and Nick Vespi as often as possible. They could deal with fatigue in the middle of the series before more days off dot the second half of the series. Also, most of St. Louis’ relievers do pitch very well against lefties, including Trixie Yera, who had no problems with San Francisco’s strong lefties in the ninth inning of the Wild Card Game. Whether Milwaukee can do damage against St. Louis’ righties will be a big subplot of the series.
Cardinals Offense versus Brewers Pitching
The Cardinals offense is peaking at the right time. The team scored eight runs against the Giants in the NL Wild Card Game, with Isaiah High bashing two homers. Better against righties than lefties, the team nonetheless put up its eight runs against San Francisco against exclusively righties. Country Mills is hitting everything, High has so much power, and the team has a good mix of both power and average.
While that’s promising for St. Louis, they’ll still have to take on Milwaukee stable of aces. After a tough start to the year, Mike Arnold has improved with time and is back to his dominant self. He’s allowed one earned run total over his last four starts, including 7 innings of hour-hit, shutout ball in St. Louis on September 15. Righties hit just .198 against Hawkeye for the year.
Tim Kierstead, meanwhile, has been elite all year. He led the league with a 2.68 ERA. Interestingly enough, h’s dominated lefties more than righties with lefties hitting just .193. He struck out 232 hitters, the most of his illustrious career.
Branden Andexler has had a tough year on the surface with a 3.94 ERA, but his peripherals are great. He allowed just 15 homers and struck out 198 in 185 innings. His walk rate is up, as is his BABIP, resulting in a higher WHIP.
Milwaukee’s fourth starter has traditionally been a solid, soft-tossing lefty. Unfortunately for traditionalists, Brock Straub and David Meeks are on the IL. Roy Montgomery will get the start. He coaxes grounders, throws strikes, and has solid stuff. He’s not elite though, and has been a touch homer prone against lefties.
The pen is mostly right-handed. Josh Blystone and Josh Young have an ERA under 3, and Mike Gaylord had his fifth straight year with at least 1.0 WAR. Hideki Yamada had a good year, though he was much better against righties than lefties this year by over 200 points of OPS against. This may be a blip as it goes against career norms.
Joe Dyck was wild and a little homer prone, Ryan Whalen was hit hard by BABIP, while Kenny McMahon was hit hard by both BABIP and homers, though he struck out enough hitters to make up for it.
It’s a staff that will often have the platoon advantage and has generally shut down righties. How St. Louis righties and switch hitters fare, especially High and Mills, will determine a lot.
Season Series
The year started ominously for St. Louis when they got swept by the Brewers over four straight to begin the year. When the dust settled, though, the Cards took the season series 10-9. The Brewers went just 5-5 in Milwaukee, dropping five of their final six games at home to the Cardinals, while St. louis won five of the nine on their turf.
For Milwaukee, the pitching struggled a bit aside from a trio of righties. Tim Kierstead worked to a 1.63 ERA over four starts, while Josh Blystone, Josh Young, and Mike Gaylord had ERAs in the 2s. Offensively, Milwaukee put up some ghastly numbers. Only Mike Perches, Nick Rollins, and Zack Prajzner had an OPS above .760 with the team.
For St. Louis, the only pitcher with an ERA above 3.68 against the Brewers was Joe Shilts, who struggled with the club’s lefties. Sixto Sanchez and Hans Crouse managed to not allow a run.
The offense was a different story. Isaiah High hit .139 against Milwaukee this year, while Davit Witter hit .118. Only three hitters had an OPS above .718—Country Mils and Bob Beasley who slugged their way to high .700s OPS marks, and Calvin Mitchell, who hit .338 with six doubles. The Cardinals might be able to get guys on at the top of the order, but they’ll need their run producers to drive them home.
Deciding Questions
Who will be more dominant on the mound, St. Louis’ committee approach, or Milwaukee’s historic trio of aces and back-end bullpen?
Will the Cardinals left-handed pitchers run out of steam early in the series?
Will Milwaukee struggle offensively with all the mixing and matching the Cardinals do?
Prediction: This feels like Milwaukee’s prior NLDS matchups with San Francisco where the series would go seven games and all the scores would be 4-3. Expect a bunch more 4-3 games in a 4-3 series, with Milwaukee’s aces coming up big in the end. Brewers 4-3.
The last two years for the St. Louis Cardinals have seen their ends of seasons end in despair. In 2028, they blew a ninth inning lead in the Wild Card Game to be eliminated from the playoffs by the San Francisco Giants. Last year, the team was swept by Milwaukee the final week of the year, preventing the club from tying the Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks for a Wild Card spot.
This year, the club is surging down the stretch. They won 13 straight to claim Home Field in the Wild Card Game, then flew High to complete a comeback over San Francisco to punch a ticket to the NLDS for the first time in their history.
Their reward, a showdown with a Milwaukee Brewers team still on top of a historic run. The club has won 108+ games for six years straight, and took the NL Central again by a comfortable margin. However, Milwaukee’s offense was a touch underwhelming, the club is banged up from the right-side of the plate, and their ace staff has appeared more vulnerable this year than ever.
It amounts to what should be a fantastic NLDS.
Brewers Offense versus Cardinals Pitching
Milwaukee has traditionally been an elite offense, weighted heavily towards crushing right-handed pitching. That’s become more balanced over time, but this year’s edition comes with more questions than Milwaukee has had in some time. The offense is less dynamic than it’s been in past years, and injuries affect a pair of right-handed hitters for the club. The team will have far more left-handed hitting talent available to it than right-handed.
The team also had less high-end seasons. Rodolfo Rivera was still excellent, but he hit 16 fewer homers than last year with a nearly 100 point loss in OPS. Grant Stein walked a lot, but hit just .227 with 17 homers, down from last year’s .289 average with 22 homers. Only Mike Perches got it done with both average and power over a full-year sample, clubbing 33 homers with a .310 average.
It’s still a capable offense. Only Zack Prajzner and Elih Marrero didn’t hit for power, and Prajzner had an excellent walk rate. There’s still good power and flexibility, and the best walk rate in the league. However, the superstar talent doesn’t appear quite there.
This is good news for St. Louis’ bullpen approach. The Cards have more righties than lefties, so they’ll use Nick Vespi, Jarod Widdison, and Nick Vespi as often as possible. They could deal with fatigue in the middle of the series before more days off dot the second half of the series. Also, most of St. Louis’ relievers do pitch very well against lefties, including Trixie Yera, who had no problems with San Francisco’s strong lefties in the ninth inning of the Wild Card Game. Whether Milwaukee can do damage against St. Louis’ righties will be a big subplot of the series.
Cardinals Offense versus Brewers Pitching
The Cardinals offense is peaking at the right time. The team scored eight runs against the Giants in the NL Wild Card Game, with Isaiah High bashing two homers. Better against righties than lefties, the team nonetheless put up its eight runs against San Francisco against exclusively righties. Country Mills is hitting everything, High has so much power, and the team has a good mix of both power and average.
While that’s promising for St. Louis, they’ll still have to take on Milwaukee stable of aces. After a tough start to the year, Mike Arnold has improved with time and is back to his dominant self. He’s allowed one earned run total over his last four starts, including 7 innings of hour-hit, shutout ball in St. Louis on September 15. Righties hit just .198 against Hawkeye for the year.
Tim Kierstead, meanwhile, has been elite all year. He led the league with a 2.68 ERA. Interestingly enough, h’s dominated lefties more than righties with lefties hitting just .193. He struck out 232 hitters, the most of his illustrious career.
Branden Andexler has had a tough year on the surface with a 3.94 ERA, but his peripherals are great. He allowed just 15 homers and struck out 198 in 185 innings. His walk rate is up, as is his BABIP, resulting in a higher WHIP.
Milwaukee’s fourth starter has traditionally been a solid, soft-tossing lefty. Unfortunately for traditionalists, Brock Straub and David Meeks are on the IL. Roy Montgomery will get the start. He coaxes grounders, throws strikes, and has solid stuff. He’s not elite though, and has been a touch homer prone against lefties.
The pen is mostly right-handed. Josh Blystone and Josh Young have an ERA under 3, and Mike Gaylord had his fifth straight year with at least 1.0 WAR. Hideki Yamada had a good year, though he was much better against righties than lefties this year by over 200 points of OPS against. This may be a blip as it goes against career norms.
Joe Dyck was wild and a little homer prone, Ryan Whalen was hit hard by BABIP, while Kenny McMahon was hit hard by both BABIP and homers, though he struck out enough hitters to make up for it.
It’s a staff that will often have the platoon advantage and has generally shut down righties. How St. Louis righties and switch hitters fare, especially High and Mills, will determine a lot.
Season Series
The year started ominously for St. Louis when they got swept by the Brewers over four straight to begin the year. When the dust settled, though, the Cards took the season series 10-9. The Brewers went just 5-5 in Milwaukee, dropping five of their final six games at home to the Cardinals, while St. louis won five of the nine on their turf.
For Milwaukee, the pitching struggled a bit aside from a trio of righties. Tim Kierstead worked to a 1.63 ERA over four starts, while Josh Blystone, Josh Young, and Mike Gaylord had ERAs in the 2s. Offensively, Milwaukee put up some ghastly numbers. Only Mike Perches, Nick Rollins, and Zack Prajzner had an OPS above .760 with the team.
For St. Louis, the only pitcher with an ERA above 3.68 against the Brewers was Joe Shilts, who struggled with the club’s lefties. Sixto Sanchez and Hans Crouse managed to not allow a run.
The offense was a different story. Isaiah High hit .139 against Milwaukee this year, while Davit Witter hit .118. Only three hitters had an OPS above .718—Country Mils and Bob Beasley who slugged their way to high .700s OPS marks, and Calvin Mitchell, who hit .338 with six doubles. The Cardinals might be able to get guys on at the top of the order, but they’ll need their run producers to drive them home.
Deciding Questions
Who will be more dominant on the mound, St. Louis’ committee approach, or Milwaukee’s historic trio of aces and back-end bullpen?
Will the Cardinals left-handed pitchers run out of steam early in the series?
Will Milwaukee struggle offensively with all the mixing and matching the Cardinals do?
Prediction: This feels like Milwaukee’s prior NLDS matchups with San Francisco where the series would go seven games and all the scores would be 4-3. Expect a bunch more 4-3 games in a 4-3 series, with Milwaukee’s aces coming up big in the end. Brewers 4-3.