2018 NL West Season Preview

[Commissioner Erick]

Welcome to the first installment of the PBA Season Preview series, where Aaron Dunham and I go through team by team and preview the 2017 season. Teams are ordered based on their predicted finish this season. We've also included a Key Questions section where we hope GM's will take to the forums and answer the hot questions surrounding their teams. Without further ado...




1) Los Angeles Dodgers

2017: 102-60, NL Wild Card. Lost to Pittsburgh in Wild Card Game

Who They Were: The 2017 Dodgers were a 102 win powerhouse that missed a division crown only due to the absurd pitching and defense of the San Francisco Giants. Los Angeles scored the third most runs, fueled by NL Batting Champ and MVP Runner-Up, Corey Seager, whose 2017 saw him hit .363 and tally 9.3 WAR. They allowed the second fewest runs, led by Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw, who went 17-3 with a 2.55 ERA. They also featured an outstanding bullpen. Outside of Paco Rodriguez, everyone put up a 3.53 ERA or lower. If not for one of the more unlikely home runs in playoff history, the Dodgers could have gone far in the postseason.

Offseason Review: The Dodgers didn't lose much from their team, and added the solid bat-glove combination of Ian Kinsler. Most of the Dodgers best players are extremely young so improvement on many fronts can be expected merely by flipping pages on the calendar. The Kinsler addition adds infield versatility with Adrian Gonzalez no longer an impact bat, Logan Forsythe, and Justin Turner at risk of joining him, and Cody Bellinger perhaps needed in the outfield. Sneaky concern: the Dodgers didn't do much to add rotation depth.

On the Farm: Most of the Dodgers' impact minor leaguers are outfielders, a place they're already young and talented. Willie Calhoun can be a boon with his bat, but he'd be competing for DH at bats with the Dodgers' logjam of extra outfielders. All of them can be flipped to fill holes.

Best Case Scenario: Money CAN buy you a championship.

Worst Case Scenario: Barring catastrophe, 90 wins may be a baseline. Still, the youngsters may need a bit more seasoning, the pitching after Kershaw and Urias can struggle, and maybe the Giants and Rockies play lights out.

Key Questions: Scott Kazmir, Ross Stripling, or Brock Stewart. Who gets the fifth spot and why?

Cody Bellinger had a bit of an uneven year last year, finishing with a league average OPS+. If he doesn't step forward in his second season, are you worried your offense will have the juice to compete with elite pitching staffs?


2) Colorado Rockies

2017: 82-80, 3rd Place NL West.

Who They Were: The Rockies had the third best defense in baseball last season according to zone rating, and saw a breakout season from Michael Fulmer. Despite pitching in Coors Field, his 1.12 WHIP solidifies him as a frontline rotation pitcher. However, despite Coors Field, Colorado collectively couldn't hit, finishing 10th in runs scored, and finishing below the league average in batting average and on-base percentage. While some of their other young pitchers showed flashes, they were only flashes, and veteran hitters underperformed just enough to leave Colorado dangerous but incomplete.

Offseason Review: Colorado largely stood pat due to a lack of financial resources until late in free agency. Colorado has veterans locked up through 2018, and a lot of youth both in the majors and coming through the pipeline. Chris Heisey looks to improve on Ryan Raburn's dismal season as a right-handed bench bat, and a trio of young pitchers, Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, and Jeff Hoffman, will look to build on inconsistent seasons. The success of the team will depend on those starters getting better with experience.

On the Farm: What was shaping up to be a very good pipeline took a hit with Brendan Rodgers' sudden retirement. The Rockies have some bat-first left-handed infielders in their upper minors to supplement the team, and have some promising players in their low minors. However, virtually all of their pitching prospects are on their major league club.

Best Case Scenario: The young arms develop and last season's offensive drought was a total mirage. There's raw talent here for a deep playoff run.

Worst Case Scenario: The young pitching talent can't consolidate, and the offensive struggles are legitimate. There's downside risk to finish in fourth place.

Key Questions: It looks like an infield injury could spell trouble to your offensive production. What do you expect your depth pieces to look like this season?

You were middle of pack in both hitting and pitching last year. With a quiet offseason, what makes you think you can improve in each area this year?


3) San Francisco Giants

2017: 113-49, NL West Champion. Beat Pittsburgh 4-1 in NLDS, lost to New York Mets 4-2 in NLCS

Who They Were: The 2017 San Francisco Giants were a pitching and defense juggernaut. They were top two in the league in runs allowed, ERA, shutouts, walks, home runs, opponents' average, fielding percentage, errors, zone rating, and defensive efficiency. They were third in strikeouts. They were sixth in offense, despite being second in the bottom in home runs, thanks to an excellent contact-based approach. If not for Mark Melancon' imploding in the playoffs, the Giants could have been National League Champions

Offseason Review: San Francisco took the approach of not messing with a good thing. Samuel Rutledge has a type, which is why the main acquisition the Giants made was brining on the defensively versatile Eduardo Escobar. With a deep staff, San Francisco was able to let Matt Cain walk, hoping Daniel Norris can come back from Tommy John surgery and return to form. With a year of experience, Christian Arroyo should be even better as a third baseman defensively. They'll throw, they'll catch, they'll put the bat on the ball, but will they be able to drive the ball enough?

On the Farm: It's not a particularly good system, though 2017's strong draft class will add replenishment. Most of the talent are contact-and-glove types in the mid-minors (surprise, surprise), or depth arms who spent most of last year in Double and Triple-A. It's not a system that should provide much this season, though a stream of role players may be ready to patch holes in 2019.

Best Case Scenario: Defense wins Championships. The Giants achieved so much despite a 10th percentile season from Buster Posey.

Worst Case Scenario: It's easy to imagine scenarios where the offense legitimately sucks.

Key Questions: Most of your offensive talent is 29 or over. What options are there if the better hitters on the team breakdown?

Save for catastrophic pitching injuries, or not-unexpected offensive declines, your team is well-positioned. Much of your relief corps has failed in high-profile situations last year, though. Are you concerned of rolling it back with the same guys?


4) Arizona Diamondbacks

2017: 65-97, 4th Place NL West

Who They Were: In trading away Paul Goldschmidt and others, Arizona signaled to the league their desire to rebuild. As such, 2017 was rough on the field, with just enough pitching from an exciting young staff, and just enough competence from an underwhelming lineup to avoid 100 losses.

Offseason Review: Arizona dealt away Zach Grienke as he didn't meet the Diamondbacks timeline, and was ineffective in 2017. Arizona also dealt away a young, productive Jake Lamb, ostensibly for Michael Gettys, hoping more years of control for Gettys makes it worth it to trade a young productive player in Lamb. Stopgaps were brought in to make the team relevant in 2018, and if some of the youngsters take strides, the offense will be okay. They did a nice job getting Jarett Parker for nothing. If a young collection of talented starters all develop, there's a winning team here, but it's not the most talented group of hitters and most of the prospects are still on the horizon.

On the Farm: It's a talented collection. Some players, like SP Ariel Jurado, 2B Andy Ibanez, and OF Victor Reyes may be able to contribute as early as this year. Most of the players to dream on are still in the lower minors though.

Best Case Scenario: Archie Bradley, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, Braden Shipley, and Shelby Miller give Arizona a chance to win every day, and they win a bit more than they lose.

Worst Case Scenario: It's an unforgiving division for mediocre offensive teams, and the pitching tops out at average. Triple digit losses is the floor with some bad injury luck.

Key Questions: After trading away talented veterans, how long do you think it will take before your next playoff team?

Which offensive players on your team do you think will determine how quickly your team becomes a force again?


5) San Diego Padres

2017: 61-101, Last in NL West

Who They Were: Hunter Mason took on a bare-bones roster with very little quality talent on it. Of hitters who played in more than six games, nine of 14 had a WAR under 1.0. One pitcher had a season with 2 WAR or better—Collin Rea with exactly 2.0. Zach Lee went 3-21 with a 6.20 ERA, and 82 strikeouts in 183 innings. Even talented closer Brandon Maurer took it on the chin, recording a 5.56 ERA and a -1.2 WAR.

Offseason Review: The Padres had a busy offseason that has them as one of the best improvers based solely on last year's WAR. Much of that is based solely on letting Kelly Johnson's -1.9 (!!!) WAR retire after Johnson had a .580 OPS as a first baseman and recorded one of the emptiest 20-home run season imaginable. San Diego traded away their decent veterans, plus Michael Gettys as good veterans won't be needed this year. In return, the team took on prospects and rehabilitation prospects, while picking up a cheap veteran or two to try to remain someone respectable. Right out of the rebuilding playbook. Manny Margot, Allen Cordoba, and Dan Vogelbach will give the team an infusion of exciting offensive talent, though the pitching isn't close.

On the Farm: There's big talent in the team's minor league system. Margot and Cordoba should be in the bigs to start the season, with Luis Urias right behind them, before things start to lag a bit. Most of the rest of the talent base is in the lower minors. There are some major differences with scouts on much of the players, but the odds are there that San Diego builds a nice pipeline of talent in a half decade.

Best Case Scenario: The offense is sneaky good, giving the team a nice foundation. Meanwhile, Arizona's pitching staff struggles to come together, and the Padres finish fourth.

Worst Case Scenario: Wait, did you say half decade?

Key Questions: You made a big deal for Jake Lamb, trading away Michael Gettys. Lamb is a bit older than someone would consider a prospect. Why did you make that deal?

You have some explosive talent making its way to the majors. Are there positions you feel are underwhelming in your majors/upper minors though, and how will you address that.

[samdbacks]

I didn't realize there would be a test!

Key Questions: After trading away talented veterans, how long do you think it will take before your next playoff team?

This is a tough division, and being new to the PBA I still need to learn the ins and outs of the league but I feel confident that with my prospects, some higher draft picks coming and a fairly large budget I should be landing a Wild card spot in 3 seasons or less.

Which offensive players on your team do you think will determine how quickly your team becomes a force again?

I am placing a lot of hope in Oswaldo Arcia and Joey Gallo (especially since I moved Lamb) to step forth as my offensive leaders. I think young unproven players like Gettys and Andy Ibanez if they make the Show and perform a bit above average will make or break a 75+ win season for me this year.

[rdavispadres]

You made a big deal for Jake Lamb, trading away Michael Gettys. Lamb is a bit older than someone would consider a prospect. Why did you make that deal?

There is no doubt in my mind that we won't compete this year but relying on prospects to hopefully pan out isn't a great strategy. Jake Lamb is a proven bat that we acquired now with hopes that he can be a fixture at third base for years to come. We believe our window is opening very soon and Lamb is young enough that he will be a major contributor to the next San Diego playoff team. Gettys is a phenomenal prospect but you have to give up talent to get talent and Lamb is worth it. This offseason our goal was to acquire controllable talent and we believe we did a great job of that, bringing in guys like Lamb and Dan Vogelbach.


You have some explosive talent making its way to the majors. Are there positions you feel are underwhelming in your majors/upper minors though, and how will you address that.

Pitching is a major weakness with this team. We have some arms making their way through our system that we really like but unfortunately they lost a year of development and might be a year or 2 away. With not many established arms at the highest level the rotation might be a revolving door until we can find 5 guys we feel give us the best chance to win. With that being said, we have some creative ways we think can help maximize the talents of the pitchers we have in house so we are going to be paying very close attention to not only our own arms but the pitching market on the whole.

[Commissioner Erick]

It looks like an infield injury could spell trouble to your offensive production. What do you expect your depth pieces to look like this season?

I think I can survive an injury to LeMahieu, but regardless of depth, the talent and power Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story provide would make it difficult for me to survive their loss for more than a few weeks. Alexi Amarista is a nice hitter and versatile defender. He'll step in and play either middle infield position in a pinch. If I lose Arenado, I may slide Desmond to third and play Jordan Patterson or even one of my outfielders at first base. If he develops, Ryan McMahon should be a serviceable power hitter to play at third. He's in Triple A. Basically, I have options.

For my outfield, I'm stacked with depth. David Dahl, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and Raimel Tapia will be starters, leaving me Chris Heisey and Gerardo Parra off the bench. At worst, that's a lot of defense to roll out.

I go with 12 pitchers, so my main bench will be Amarista, Parra, Heisey, and Tony Wolters, with Patterson, Ryan McMahon, the slick bat, no-glove prospect Forrest Wall, mediocre but competent Pat Valaika, and power-defense combo of Justin Smoak next in line as options I'm fairly comfortable with.

You were middle of pack in both hitting and pitching last year. With a quiet offseason, what makes you think you can improve in each area this year?

For pitching, it's youth. For hitting, it's regressions. My pitching was middle of the road, but in Coors, that's great. Michael Fulmer had a good season and a great offseason and should turn in an excellent season. With a year under his belt and a better BABIP, Jon Gray should be much better than last year. Jeff Hoffman keeps suffering through nagging injuries. If he can put that behind him, he still has potential. Tyler Anderson and Chad Bettis are fine options, and Kyle Freeland and Chris Rusin have potential as pitch-to-contact lefties.

We still may be one arm away from really taking off, but this year will be important for us figuring out exactly who Gray, Hoffman, Bettis, Rusin, and our prospects are. I love our late-inning relief, though we don't have too imposing of a pen.

I think if we're middle of the road in pitching we'll be fine if our offense hits. We can't be as bad as we were offensively last year, where virtually everybody undperformed. Just not being stuck with everyone's 30th percentile seasons again will be a boon. We also have some young players progressing and getting better, like Dahl and Tapia. If our offense is as dismal as it was last season, you'll see changes. I feel as a baseline though, last year may have been a collective worst-case scenario and we're not going to overreact to worst case scenarios.

[dodgerstroy]

Key Questions: Scott Kazmir, Ross Stripling, or Brock Stewart. Who gets the fifth spot and why?

Cody Bellinger had a bit of an uneven year last year, finishing with a league average OPS+. If he doesn't step forward in his second season, are you worried your offense will have the juice to compete with elite pitching staffs?

Well, fist off thank you for the compliments and we look forward to the Game of The Week interviews. Last season we had problems with the Giants all season long, they had our number and we had nothing for them. We believe that our young team was still reaching its potential last season and they are just learning how to win as a team. We only had one off-season need and that was to get Logan Forsyth off 2B but keep his bat in the game, Ian Kinsler solves that problem. We have young stars coming up the pipeline for when we start replacing some of the older contracts. After this season we are expecting to have about $95M to spend in the Free Agent market along with rookies Yusniel Diaz, Alex Verdugo, and Willie Calhoun ready for their shot on the big stage.

You asked about Scott Kazmir, Ross Stripling, or Brock Stewart and who gets the fifth spot and why? I would like to start with thanking Scott Kazmir and Rich Hill for all they have given to this franchise and the city of Los Angeles. We will be moving on from both of them this season and we want to wish them the best. We plan to keep both of them in the family and the community as part of the Dodgers organization. Our Rotation as it stands now belongs to Kershaw, Urias, Maeda, Wood, and with Stewart and Stripling fighting for the last spot. While both of them pitched well for us filling in for injuries the coaches have reported to me that Mr. Stripling trained very hard this offseason with Roger Clemens and his before and after photos are notably different.

As for Cody Bellinger, we are not worried about him. He is very young (22) and is still learning daily how to play baseball, we expect him to perform much better this season around the solid core of veterans on our Dodger team. We don’t expect Cody or any of the young guys to come in and carry the big load, that’s why we pay guys like Kershaw ($33M), and Justin Turner ($15M) to do the heavy lifting.