Post by Commissioner Erick on Jun 9, 2024 12:01:52 GMT -5
The NL portion of the 2032 bracket features elite star-studded pitching, elite bullpens, elite lefty-sluggers—and the San Diego Padres. Whichever offense can produce the best in a hostile pitching environment should be the team that emerges with a National League pennant.
San Diego Padres
The Case For: With a good staff, good defense, and a run preventing park, San Diego allowed the fourth fewest runs in the league. They have an elite back of the bullpen with Travis Crombie posting a miniscule 1.29 ERA, and Kevin Fleishman putting up a 1.59 mark. San Diego rode that bullpen to a 37-22 mark in one-run games. Jake Shirey led the league in wins and Adrian Morejon was fifth in WHIP. The Wild Card Game starter, Daizo Matsumoto, allowed a .619 OPS to righties.
The Case Against: San Diego had the Pythagorean Record of 82-80, 15 games worse than their Wild Card opponent. Their offense was fourth from the bottom, and they haven’t scored more than three runs against any starter in the Top 6 of pitching WAR—including their opposing Wild Card Game starter Mike Arnold. The team is middle of the pack in road ERA with a good, but not sparkling 3.56.
Daizo Matsumoto will start the Wild Card game, and he allowed a full run of ERA more on the road than at home. Joe Lancellotti and K.J. Harrison were the only players with an OPS+ above 108, with only six topping 100.
Deciding Questions: Can the team produce enough offense to get past Mike Arnold and then go on a run?
How will San Diego’s arms fare on the road against playoff-caliber opponents?
Flipper struggled in September, only hitting .271. Can he find his bat to spark the lineup in October?
Milwaukee Brewers
The Case For: Mike Arnold is the best playoff starter of all time. He leads the history books in playoff wins, playoff strikeouts, and among arms that never pitched significantly in the bullpen, he tops in xFIP, and K-BB%. He’ll give Milwaukee a huge advantage to escaping the Wild Card Round at the very least.
The Brewers have three left-hand hitting terrors in Rodolfo Rivera, Mike Perches, and Will Dulihanty. Perches crushes both righties and lefties, and while Rivera and Wombat have large platoon splits, the supporting cast balances it out by producing against lefty pitchers.
Milwaukee has the best bullpen ERA in the league, and the staff as a whole allows the second lowest OPS to righties. Roy Montgomery pitched three splendid games against St. Louis in September, going 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA in three starts.
The Case Against: The NL playoff lineups skew left-handed, particularly in the NLDS, with only perhaps the Giants an exception. Aside from Hawkeye’s rookie year, he and Scruffy Andexler posted their highest ERAs of their career this year and may not be the fastball they’ve been in years past. The Tim Kierstead injury means Milwaukee will have to rely more on Montgomery and Jeff Upton, who aren’t quite as imposing as a third ace would be.
Rodolfo Rivera is an MVP candidate against righties, but any generic lefty shuts him down. Kevin Fleishman is prepared in the NLDS, the Cardinals have at least four lefties in their stable, and the Mets have two elite lefty relievers ready to go on their end.
The postseason teams skew pitching heavy, meaning ways to eek out runs may be at a premium. Milwaukee is last in baserunning and third from the bottom in steals. Milwaukee also gets very little offense out of the bottom of their order.
Deciding Questions: Can Milwaukee score enough runs to not get into a dreaded one-run game with the Padres?
Will Monty continue his excellent work against St. Louis should the Brewers advance?
Will Milwaukee be able to score runs late in games when opponents will have answers for Rivera?
San Francisco Giants
The Case For: While some of the new additions haven’t quite performed, there’s Hall of Fame talent all over the roster. Theoretically, the team should absolutely obliterate right-handed pitching. The Giants also have a high-octane rotation with great WAR totals, and an elite bullpen, particularly on righties.
San Francisco led the league in doubles and triples, so they can find ways to pressure pithing staffs that keep the ball in the park. David Kouns had half the number of triples he had last year and still led the league.
The Giants won three different series against San Diego in September and October, so if they meet in the NLCS, it appears the Giants have solved that matchup.
The Case Against: San Francisco is 2-4 against the Mets, scoring nine total runs. Nine. Total. Runs. Kellyn Klattenberger and Seth Beer signed very late in the year and have not been able to shake off the rust. Each is hitting for a .648 OPS or worse. Francisco Mejia also hasn’t hit since coming over. On paper, the Giants offense is unstoppable, but in reality, it’s been very mortal.
San Francisco has one of the worst defenses in the league, taking a bite out of an excellent staff. Evan Orcutt and Alfredo Estevez have FIPs more than 1.50 lower than their ERA.
San Francisco’s offense has survived St. Louis, yet the Giants are 1-5 against the Cardinals have scored 44 runs in six games.
The Giants have one lefty in their pen and Jorge Cotto has a 6.20 ERA.
Deciding Questions: Maybe the question of the playoffs. Will Klattenburger and Beer show up and dominate or will they continue to look like husks of what they used to be?
How will San Francisco's righty-forward bullpen handle all the lefty power in the playoffs?
Can San Francisco's pitching overcome San Francisco's defense?
New York Mets
The Case For: New York’s rotation is cat with heart-eyes emoji. Only the dominant Brewers teams from last decade have better NL marks than this Mets team. Eric Pena won the Triple Crown and in a park that makes up for his homer-centric ways, he has been unbelievable. Yes he pitched a perfect game against the Nationals, but he buffered that with 7 shutout against the Giants, 6 shutout against the Cardinals, 8 shutout against the Phillies. He can take elite offenses and carve them to pieces. Meanwhile Mario Jimenez was sixth in ERA and Jeff Morrison was third in ERA, the pair neutralizing offenses in different ways—Jimenez by finishing second in the league in strikeouts, and Morrison an elite BABIP suppresser.
Like so many playoff teams, New York’s bullpen was exceptional and posted the third best mark in the league. Luis Ortiz saved 37 games with a 2.40 ERA, but lefty Jorge Ontiveros and righty Alfredo Medrano also had an ERA starting with a 2. Not to be outdone, Devasarasa Lalitesh’s ERA started with a 1.
The offense should be better than last year. Denny Marchwinski gives the team some power with 29 homers, and Jim Sattler had a .303 average.
The Mets allowed nine runs in six games against the Giants, going 4-2, but they also did well against other playoff teams. Then endured the San Diego one-run vortex and went 4-3 despite scoring no more than four runs in any game. They went 4-2 against Milwaukee, including sweeping them at home in July and allowing only five runs in three games, despite two games going to extras. They took two of three at home against the Cardinals in September, with two shutouts.
The Case Against: New York’s offense was fifth worst in the league. Jim Sattler and Andy Fleck had strong years, but every one else who had a well above average wRC+ did so in a reduced role. Christian Arroyo failed in the playoffs last year. Mike Bishop hit under .200 in his playoff run with the Giants. Dansby Swanson is merely a pinch hitter. Mackenzie Nicoll started 45 games. The whole offense is a question, especially against lefties, as New York had just a .654 OPS against lefties. New York was swept in St. Louis in four games early in the year with the club scoring just seven runs.
No matter how awesome New York’s pitching is in Games 1-3, Pat French’s injury may mean a poor starter needs to throw in a pivotal Game 4. Also, with Ozzie Albies hurt, and Cesar D. Izturis nicked up, the Mets may not have an elite infield defense to support their pitchers.
Deciding Questions: Is the offense good enough? It hasn't been great in the regular season in terms of overall league stats, and in a pathetic division no less, but it also hasn't stopped the Mets from winning 98 games. Will it be good enough to win 12 more?
Jeff Morrison has been a terrible playoff pitcher in his career and was a disaster last year. Can he come up with some big games this year?
Who is the fourth starter? The Mets have three aces, but they may need to get one good start a series from someone else. Who is that someone else?
St. Louis Cardinals
The Case For: While a lot of the best NL offenses fell by the wayside and missed the playoffs, the Cardinals used their top-ranked offense to win 110 games. The team has three lefties who hit at least 43 homers with Matt Sanchez also hitting .306 while doing so. He’s joined in the high-average brigade by Ethan Mikolajczyk’s .303 average, with the vowel-challenged one also cracking 33 doubles and 25 homers. It’s a terrifying offense, especially for right-handed pitching.
The Cardinals also have a much-discussed, extremely strong pitching staff that was second in run prevention. It’s well balanced with at least four and likely five lefty arms on the postseason roster. The unit is only fifth in strikeout rate surprisingly, and sixth in walk rate, but the unit is second in homers allowed and avoids the times through the order penalty, though ironically, the unit has a higher OPS allowed in innings 4-6 than 1-3.
St. Louis deploys an excellent defense, particularly in the middle infield, which should be even stronger with Joe Mills out for the year.
Finally, Yusniel Diaz is a solid lefty masher off the bench. He’ll sub for Mikolajczyk against southpaws and also be a pinch hitting factor, and he can also hold his own against righties if he needs to stay in the game.
The Case Against: Joe Mills’ injury removes a huge bat from St. Louis’ lineup, a huge bat at a position that doesn’t often provide elite production in Second Base, and a huge bat that can hit from the right side. St. Louis hit more than 100 points of OPS better against righties than lefties, which could be obnoxious if San Diego upsets Milwaukee.
St. Louis’ staff isn’t filled with elite arms, and the Cardinals win with controlling times through the lineup and having appropriate platoon matchups. Elite bats that can handle both sides of the plate could pose a problem, which means San Francisco may pose a problem if their Hall of Famers decide to wake up.
The Cardinals are first in homers, but only sixth in OBP and average. The Giants, Brewers, and Padres all limit homers, which could be an issue.
Deciding Questions: How will St. Louis handle lefties this postseason? There aren't too many good lefty starters outside of San Francisco and San Diego, and few teams have more than two lefties in their pen, but a poor answer this question may hold St. Louis back.
How will St. Louis' youngsters fare? Their young bats didn't do well last postseason, and a repeat performance will doom the Cardinals.
Will St. Louis bullpen-forward strategy pay off? Eight Cardinals pitchers have more than a single career playoff inning pitched. Two of them have an ERA lower than 5.56—Trixie Yera who has been dominant with a 1.29 ERA in 21 career innings, and Doug Syverson who was good for Kansas City back in 2024. St. Louis' non-elite arms have not passed the playoff test in the past, and will need to this year.
Predictions
Brewers over Padres in NL Wild Card Game
Milwaukee has too much talent and should win comfortably with San Diego struggling to get on base against Hawkeye.
Cardinals over Brewers 4-2 in NLDS
Giants over Mets 4-3 in NLDS
Milwaukee’s pitching isn’t quite as strong as previous years, and the Brewers don’t have the lefties to trouble St. Louis’ bats. Unlike last year, St. Louis won’t be relying on rookies new to the playoff spotlight either. They should split the two Hawkeye starts and win a low-scoring series.
The toughest series to pick. New York can win some low scoring games with San Francisco’s defense giving them some gifts, and the pitching should be electric. However, San Francisco should see its stars wake up over a long series, and the Giants have the bats to produce even against elite arms. I’m putting my faith in San Francisco’s stars in a Game 7 over New York’s collection of discarded veterans to score more runs.
Cardinals 4-2 in NLCS
St. Louis should control any home game against any Giants righty. San Francisco’s defense will supply the men on base in that matchup, and St. Louis’ power will provide runs three at a time. The equation changes against lefties and in San Francisco, but the Giants don’t have enough lefty arms, and their offense is a little too left-handed, and not firing efficiently enough to get there.
San Diego Padres
The Case For: With a good staff, good defense, and a run preventing park, San Diego allowed the fourth fewest runs in the league. They have an elite back of the bullpen with Travis Crombie posting a miniscule 1.29 ERA, and Kevin Fleishman putting up a 1.59 mark. San Diego rode that bullpen to a 37-22 mark in one-run games. Jake Shirey led the league in wins and Adrian Morejon was fifth in WHIP. The Wild Card Game starter, Daizo Matsumoto, allowed a .619 OPS to righties.
The Case Against: San Diego had the Pythagorean Record of 82-80, 15 games worse than their Wild Card opponent. Their offense was fourth from the bottom, and they haven’t scored more than three runs against any starter in the Top 6 of pitching WAR—including their opposing Wild Card Game starter Mike Arnold. The team is middle of the pack in road ERA with a good, but not sparkling 3.56.
Daizo Matsumoto will start the Wild Card game, and he allowed a full run of ERA more on the road than at home. Joe Lancellotti and K.J. Harrison were the only players with an OPS+ above 108, with only six topping 100.
Deciding Questions: Can the team produce enough offense to get past Mike Arnold and then go on a run?
How will San Diego’s arms fare on the road against playoff-caliber opponents?
Flipper struggled in September, only hitting .271. Can he find his bat to spark the lineup in October?
Milwaukee Brewers
The Case For: Mike Arnold is the best playoff starter of all time. He leads the history books in playoff wins, playoff strikeouts, and among arms that never pitched significantly in the bullpen, he tops in xFIP, and K-BB%. He’ll give Milwaukee a huge advantage to escaping the Wild Card Round at the very least.
The Brewers have three left-hand hitting terrors in Rodolfo Rivera, Mike Perches, and Will Dulihanty. Perches crushes both righties and lefties, and while Rivera and Wombat have large platoon splits, the supporting cast balances it out by producing against lefty pitchers.
Milwaukee has the best bullpen ERA in the league, and the staff as a whole allows the second lowest OPS to righties. Roy Montgomery pitched three splendid games against St. Louis in September, going 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA in three starts.
The Case Against: The NL playoff lineups skew left-handed, particularly in the NLDS, with only perhaps the Giants an exception. Aside from Hawkeye’s rookie year, he and Scruffy Andexler posted their highest ERAs of their career this year and may not be the fastball they’ve been in years past. The Tim Kierstead injury means Milwaukee will have to rely more on Montgomery and Jeff Upton, who aren’t quite as imposing as a third ace would be.
Rodolfo Rivera is an MVP candidate against righties, but any generic lefty shuts him down. Kevin Fleishman is prepared in the NLDS, the Cardinals have at least four lefties in their stable, and the Mets have two elite lefty relievers ready to go on their end.
The postseason teams skew pitching heavy, meaning ways to eek out runs may be at a premium. Milwaukee is last in baserunning and third from the bottom in steals. Milwaukee also gets very little offense out of the bottom of their order.
Deciding Questions: Can Milwaukee score enough runs to not get into a dreaded one-run game with the Padres?
Will Monty continue his excellent work against St. Louis should the Brewers advance?
Will Milwaukee be able to score runs late in games when opponents will have answers for Rivera?
San Francisco Giants
The Case For: While some of the new additions haven’t quite performed, there’s Hall of Fame talent all over the roster. Theoretically, the team should absolutely obliterate right-handed pitching. The Giants also have a high-octane rotation with great WAR totals, and an elite bullpen, particularly on righties.
San Francisco led the league in doubles and triples, so they can find ways to pressure pithing staffs that keep the ball in the park. David Kouns had half the number of triples he had last year and still led the league.
The Giants won three different series against San Diego in September and October, so if they meet in the NLCS, it appears the Giants have solved that matchup.
The Case Against: San Francisco is 2-4 against the Mets, scoring nine total runs. Nine. Total. Runs. Kellyn Klattenberger and Seth Beer signed very late in the year and have not been able to shake off the rust. Each is hitting for a .648 OPS or worse. Francisco Mejia also hasn’t hit since coming over. On paper, the Giants offense is unstoppable, but in reality, it’s been very mortal.
San Francisco has one of the worst defenses in the league, taking a bite out of an excellent staff. Evan Orcutt and Alfredo Estevez have FIPs more than 1.50 lower than their ERA.
San Francisco’s offense has survived St. Louis, yet the Giants are 1-5 against the Cardinals have scored 44 runs in six games.
The Giants have one lefty in their pen and Jorge Cotto has a 6.20 ERA.
Deciding Questions: Maybe the question of the playoffs. Will Klattenburger and Beer show up and dominate or will they continue to look like husks of what they used to be?
How will San Francisco's righty-forward bullpen handle all the lefty power in the playoffs?
Can San Francisco's pitching overcome San Francisco's defense?
New York Mets
The Case For: New York’s rotation is cat with heart-eyes emoji. Only the dominant Brewers teams from last decade have better NL marks than this Mets team. Eric Pena won the Triple Crown and in a park that makes up for his homer-centric ways, he has been unbelievable. Yes he pitched a perfect game against the Nationals, but he buffered that with 7 shutout against the Giants, 6 shutout against the Cardinals, 8 shutout against the Phillies. He can take elite offenses and carve them to pieces. Meanwhile Mario Jimenez was sixth in ERA and Jeff Morrison was third in ERA, the pair neutralizing offenses in different ways—Jimenez by finishing second in the league in strikeouts, and Morrison an elite BABIP suppresser.
Like so many playoff teams, New York’s bullpen was exceptional and posted the third best mark in the league. Luis Ortiz saved 37 games with a 2.40 ERA, but lefty Jorge Ontiveros and righty Alfredo Medrano also had an ERA starting with a 2. Not to be outdone, Devasarasa Lalitesh’s ERA started with a 1.
The offense should be better than last year. Denny Marchwinski gives the team some power with 29 homers, and Jim Sattler had a .303 average.
The Mets allowed nine runs in six games against the Giants, going 4-2, but they also did well against other playoff teams. Then endured the San Diego one-run vortex and went 4-3 despite scoring no more than four runs in any game. They went 4-2 against Milwaukee, including sweeping them at home in July and allowing only five runs in three games, despite two games going to extras. They took two of three at home against the Cardinals in September, with two shutouts.
The Case Against: New York’s offense was fifth worst in the league. Jim Sattler and Andy Fleck had strong years, but every one else who had a well above average wRC+ did so in a reduced role. Christian Arroyo failed in the playoffs last year. Mike Bishop hit under .200 in his playoff run with the Giants. Dansby Swanson is merely a pinch hitter. Mackenzie Nicoll started 45 games. The whole offense is a question, especially against lefties, as New York had just a .654 OPS against lefties. New York was swept in St. Louis in four games early in the year with the club scoring just seven runs.
No matter how awesome New York’s pitching is in Games 1-3, Pat French’s injury may mean a poor starter needs to throw in a pivotal Game 4. Also, with Ozzie Albies hurt, and Cesar D. Izturis nicked up, the Mets may not have an elite infield defense to support their pitchers.
Deciding Questions: Is the offense good enough? It hasn't been great in the regular season in terms of overall league stats, and in a pathetic division no less, but it also hasn't stopped the Mets from winning 98 games. Will it be good enough to win 12 more?
Jeff Morrison has been a terrible playoff pitcher in his career and was a disaster last year. Can he come up with some big games this year?
Who is the fourth starter? The Mets have three aces, but they may need to get one good start a series from someone else. Who is that someone else?
St. Louis Cardinals
The Case For: While a lot of the best NL offenses fell by the wayside and missed the playoffs, the Cardinals used their top-ranked offense to win 110 games. The team has three lefties who hit at least 43 homers with Matt Sanchez also hitting .306 while doing so. He’s joined in the high-average brigade by Ethan Mikolajczyk’s .303 average, with the vowel-challenged one also cracking 33 doubles and 25 homers. It’s a terrifying offense, especially for right-handed pitching.
The Cardinals also have a much-discussed, extremely strong pitching staff that was second in run prevention. It’s well balanced with at least four and likely five lefty arms on the postseason roster. The unit is only fifth in strikeout rate surprisingly, and sixth in walk rate, but the unit is second in homers allowed and avoids the times through the order penalty, though ironically, the unit has a higher OPS allowed in innings 4-6 than 1-3.
St. Louis deploys an excellent defense, particularly in the middle infield, which should be even stronger with Joe Mills out for the year.
Finally, Yusniel Diaz is a solid lefty masher off the bench. He’ll sub for Mikolajczyk against southpaws and also be a pinch hitting factor, and he can also hold his own against righties if he needs to stay in the game.
The Case Against: Joe Mills’ injury removes a huge bat from St. Louis’ lineup, a huge bat at a position that doesn’t often provide elite production in Second Base, and a huge bat that can hit from the right side. St. Louis hit more than 100 points of OPS better against righties than lefties, which could be obnoxious if San Diego upsets Milwaukee.
St. Louis’ staff isn’t filled with elite arms, and the Cardinals win with controlling times through the lineup and having appropriate platoon matchups. Elite bats that can handle both sides of the plate could pose a problem, which means San Francisco may pose a problem if their Hall of Famers decide to wake up.
The Cardinals are first in homers, but only sixth in OBP and average. The Giants, Brewers, and Padres all limit homers, which could be an issue.
Deciding Questions: How will St. Louis handle lefties this postseason? There aren't too many good lefty starters outside of San Francisco and San Diego, and few teams have more than two lefties in their pen, but a poor answer this question may hold St. Louis back.
How will St. Louis' youngsters fare? Their young bats didn't do well last postseason, and a repeat performance will doom the Cardinals.
Will St. Louis bullpen-forward strategy pay off? Eight Cardinals pitchers have more than a single career playoff inning pitched. Two of them have an ERA lower than 5.56—Trixie Yera who has been dominant with a 1.29 ERA in 21 career innings, and Doug Syverson who was good for Kansas City back in 2024. St. Louis' non-elite arms have not passed the playoff test in the past, and will need to this year.
Predictions
Brewers over Padres in NL Wild Card Game
Milwaukee has too much talent and should win comfortably with San Diego struggling to get on base against Hawkeye.
Cardinals over Brewers 4-2 in NLDS
Giants over Mets 4-3 in NLDS
Milwaukee’s pitching isn’t quite as strong as previous years, and the Brewers don’t have the lefties to trouble St. Louis’ bats. Unlike last year, St. Louis won’t be relying on rookies new to the playoff spotlight either. They should split the two Hawkeye starts and win a low-scoring series.
The toughest series to pick. New York can win some low scoring games with San Francisco’s defense giving them some gifts, and the pitching should be electric. However, San Francisco should see its stars wake up over a long series, and the Giants have the bats to produce even against elite arms. I’m putting my faith in San Francisco’s stars in a Game 7 over New York’s collection of discarded veterans to score more runs.
Cardinals 4-2 in NLCS
St. Louis should control any home game against any Giants righty. San Francisco’s defense will supply the men on base in that matchup, and St. Louis’ power will provide runs three at a time. The equation changes against lefties and in San Francisco, but the Giants don’t have enough lefty arms, and their offense is a little too left-handed, and not firing efficiently enough to get there.