Post by Commissioner Erick on Jun 10, 2024 20:16:15 GMT -5
The AL playoff picture is deep with tremendous teams. Boston is the defending champion, and the Red Sox, Royals, and Indians are perennial playoff squads. Toronto is a 100-win powerhouse, and Seattle has the most wins in American League history. It should make for a spectacular postseason.
Cleveland Indians
The Case For: Cleveland has three starters in the top four in AL strikeouts. Josh Woodward is one of those three, and he also allowed only 15 homers in 109 innings, making him a strong choice for the Wild Card Game. The Indians will be tough for teams to score against.
Offensively, Luis Retana and Izak Pals are terrific offensive players, and despite having mostly righty hitters, Cleveland has handled right-handed pitching well this year. They also hit at home, with the fourth best home OPS in the east. They’re third in steals, and the AL playoff picture doesn’t have great defensive arms behind the plate.
The Case Against: Cleveland doesn’t score on the road well, and they don’t hit lefties too well. In fact, while their offense has a few solid hitters, there are few bats that really scare opposing pitchers.
Cleveland’s pitching tends to be wild, resulting in lots of strikeouts, few homers, but also a lot of walks. Offenses that make contact and can win the BABIP game can produce. Rich Fernandez is a good Closer, but the rest of the pen is vulnerable, especially against left-handed hitting.
Deciding Questions: Will Cleveland’s bullpen pitch well? They’ll assuredly pitch a lot of innings and will need to handle tough lefties to win close games.
Can Cleveland’s supporting cast step up? It’ll be hard to win games with two hitters playing well. Juan Marrufo will be a big player as Izak Pals’ protection.
Will Cleveland’s aces be able to dominate. The Indians pitchers have big strengths, but also big weaknesses. Their first two opponents will be the Blue Jays, and if they advance, the Mariners—teams with the two best walk rates in the AL facing off against a Cleveland team that had the second worst walk rate on the mound.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Case For: Toronto has both right-handed and left-handed power, providing the club with resilience against platoons. Toronto is also second in offensive walk rate, turning those solo homers into three-run homers. Mike Lomax and Gustao Couraca can pounce on any mistake.
Toronto’s staff leads the league in ground ball percentage, and accordingly features an excellent infield defense. Marc Eberle was fourth in the AL in ERA and first in WAR. The knuckleballer goes deep into games, limits homers, and allowed a .281 OBP against. Danny Richardson and Luis Ortiz also won 15 games by also limiting homers and times on base.
Todd Buonadonna, Curt Gemma, Dan O’Rourke, and Anyelo Luna are four outstanding veteran relievers, joined by rookie Big B Jay Forsythe, an effective rookie douchebag who went to Florida State and has a douchebag nickname to accompany him.
Despite Eberle and Danny Richardson being terrible at keeping runners from stealing on them, Seattle and Kansas City don’t have an appetite for stealing bases.
The Case Against: Toronto’s lost Arturo Reineri for most of the playoffs, and he’s been perhaps their best player—an elite glove with power, who hit well from both sides of the plate. Matt Aceto and Harland Guenette are well equipped to substitute, but it results in a team with a little less defense and depth.
Toronto is only ninth in average and has a poor offensive BABIP. If Cleveland continues to prevent the long ball, Toronto can get a lot of runners on with nothing to show for it.
Danny Richardson has extreme platoon splits that could be an issue against the balanced attacks of Boston and Seattle, or Kansas City’s Dalton/Vargas duo.
Richardson and Eberle being terrible at preventing steals could be issues against good base stealing teams in Cleveland and Boston.
Deciding Questions: How does Toronto do with men on base? They’ll likely get opportunities against Cleveland, but can they capitalize?
Can Mike Robles’ charmed rookie year continue? The 22 year old hit .343 with eight homers, six doubles, and two triples in only 35 games. If he’s for real, he could provide the batting average Toronto needs to be a complete team.
Can Marc Eberle have a big postseason? Eberle has been horrendous in his playoff career, with an 0-5 record and a 9.53 ERA. If he can’t perform in the Wild Card Game, Toronto will have an early exit.
Kansas City Royals
The Case For: Kansas City’s best hitters are left-handed, but the majority are right-handed, meaning right-handed pitchers are at a disadvantage against the team’s best hitters, and left-handed pitchers are at a disadvantage against most of the team’s hitters. The Royals led the league in in triples, and were third in doubles, showing offensive resiliency even when the team isn’t hitting homers.
Kansas City’s rotation is deep. No starter had an ERA higher than 3.88, and ace Vincente Corado will be the AL Cy Young discussion. While the bullpen has not been as strong this year, the unit is made up of arms with excellent playoff track records. The unit is elite at limiting homers, preventing walks, and striking hitters out
The Case Against: Roderick Dalton’s OPS+ has been 23 points lower than their prior career worst OPS+. If he’s not hitting like a superstar, Kansas City’s offense is far more ordinary. The team has an elite BABIP, but Seattle and Toronto have elite BABIP prevention, which could doom them.
Kansas City has the second fewest stolen bases and is dead last in baserunning, so they won’t be able to pick up extra runs with their baserunning. The team’s defense isn’t as good as previous iterations, especially on the right side. Left-handed hitting may cause some problems.
Deciding Questions: Who will show up? The Roderick Dalton of years past, or the Dalton of the 2032 regular season?
Ctrl + V. Who will show up. The KC bullpen of years past, or the KC bullpen of the 2032 regular season?
Luis Nunez was the Royals role player who overachieved in the regular season and parlayed that into a big postseason. Can Jonathan Bakos do the same thing this postseason?
Boston Red Sox
The Case For: The defending champions are deep, talented, and experienced. Boston led the AL in runs with an elite offense that led the league in OBP, OPS, and doubles. Boston controlled the strike zone with the second fewest whiffs in the AL, yet still cracked the highest slugging percentage in the league. Four healthy regulars hit at least 28 homers, not counting Stud Morales, who may miss the ALDS.
Last year’s postseason pitching heroes, Chris Donnelson and Sergio Navarro arguably had even better years this year, and the bullpen was filthy. Six of Boston’s seven man pen had an ERA of 3.03 or better, and the club led the league in ERA.
Boston is third in steals and allowed the second fewest steals in the league, so they control the running game on both sides of the ball.
The Case Against: Stud Morales is arguably Boston’s best player, and he’ll miss the ALDS. John Lacy was the 2031 playoff hero, and he’s in Detroit. That’s a big talent loss, even if Joe Taylor will play this postseason after missing last year’s.
Boston only has two left-handed pitchers on their team, which could be a problem against Jorge Vargas, and Tony Sierra. The team has poor defenders on the left side though, which could be an issue against right-handed hitters.
Mike Ball is also the ultimate boom-or-bust manager, with the highest playoff highs, but a number of inexplicable playoff losses.
Deciding Questions: John Lacy saved Boston so many times in 2031. Will they miss his clutch performance in 2032?
Will Boston miss Stud Morales in the ALDS?
Will Mike Ball win a championship or lose the opening playoff series? There's no in between.
Seattle Mariners
The Case For: Seattle has two current MVP candidates in Angelo Santiago and Tony Sierra, plus last year’s MVP Ivan Johnson playing at a similar pace this year. That’s a lot of star power, backed up with Ji-hu Kim’s power, and Pat Hembree’s all-around offensive play.
Seattle has great pitching, but their defense is even better. Seattle easily led the AL in Zone Rating, and it’s not impossible to imagine a world where Seattle’s catcher, middle infield, and entire outfield claim six Gold Gloves. The Mariners lead the AL in strikeout rate and BABIP, a brutal combination for opposing hitters.
Three of Seattle’s four most likely starting pitchers had an ERA under 3, and the back of the bullpen with Ignacio Soto, Dan Farris, and Mike Longtine have been excellent. Also, Seattle has the luxury of multiple left-handed arms.
The Case Against: Raimfer Salinas’ injury saps an established hitter at a premium defensive position. Seattle doesn’t have the deepest lineup, so his loss is a big one.
Lefties Bryce Zettel, Ji-hu Kim, and M.J. Melendez don’t hit for average at all, and switch hitters Ivan Johnson and Wander Samuel Franco hit better against lefties. Good right-handed pitching could be a problem for the Mariners.
Regis Jentzsch and Monster Koch were terrible in the 2031 postseason. They’ll need to prove they can step up in the playoffs.
Deciding Questions: Can Mitch Wilson continue to step up in Raimfer Salinas’ absence?
Can the Mariners get production from the bottom of their order or will they be easy outs for good pitchers?
Ji-hu Kim hit 43 homers, but only hit .209. Whether or not he can run into some homers may be the difference between Seattle’ offense putting up crooked numbers or more modest production.
Predictions
Indians over Blue Jays in AL Wild Card Game
Toronto can draw a ton of walks, but it may not matter if Cleveland keeps them from getting hits and homers, and Eberle fails another playoff test.
Mariners over Indians 4-1 in ALDS
Red Sox over Royals 4-1 in ALDS
Seattle’s pitching and defense should smother Cleveland. The Indians will keep the games low-scoring, but it will be hard for them to get over the hump, especially if Salinas is healed.
Kansas City doesn’t seem as potent as years past, and Boston is a very well put together team. Boston should be able to rely on late-inning magic to advance to the ALCS.
Red Sox over Mariners 4-2 in ALDS
Boston has the deeper offense, and their righty pitchers should be able to do okay against Seattle. The Red Sox had success against Seattle’s pitching last year, and should have some success this year.
Cleveland Indians
The Case For: Cleveland has three starters in the top four in AL strikeouts. Josh Woodward is one of those three, and he also allowed only 15 homers in 109 innings, making him a strong choice for the Wild Card Game. The Indians will be tough for teams to score against.
Offensively, Luis Retana and Izak Pals are terrific offensive players, and despite having mostly righty hitters, Cleveland has handled right-handed pitching well this year. They also hit at home, with the fourth best home OPS in the east. They’re third in steals, and the AL playoff picture doesn’t have great defensive arms behind the plate.
The Case Against: Cleveland doesn’t score on the road well, and they don’t hit lefties too well. In fact, while their offense has a few solid hitters, there are few bats that really scare opposing pitchers.
Cleveland’s pitching tends to be wild, resulting in lots of strikeouts, few homers, but also a lot of walks. Offenses that make contact and can win the BABIP game can produce. Rich Fernandez is a good Closer, but the rest of the pen is vulnerable, especially against left-handed hitting.
Deciding Questions: Will Cleveland’s bullpen pitch well? They’ll assuredly pitch a lot of innings and will need to handle tough lefties to win close games.
Can Cleveland’s supporting cast step up? It’ll be hard to win games with two hitters playing well. Juan Marrufo will be a big player as Izak Pals’ protection.
Will Cleveland’s aces be able to dominate. The Indians pitchers have big strengths, but also big weaknesses. Their first two opponents will be the Blue Jays, and if they advance, the Mariners—teams with the two best walk rates in the AL facing off against a Cleveland team that had the second worst walk rate on the mound.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Case For: Toronto has both right-handed and left-handed power, providing the club with resilience against platoons. Toronto is also second in offensive walk rate, turning those solo homers into three-run homers. Mike Lomax and Gustao Couraca can pounce on any mistake.
Toronto’s staff leads the league in ground ball percentage, and accordingly features an excellent infield defense. Marc Eberle was fourth in the AL in ERA and first in WAR. The knuckleballer goes deep into games, limits homers, and allowed a .281 OBP against. Danny Richardson and Luis Ortiz also won 15 games by also limiting homers and times on base.
Todd Buonadonna, Curt Gemma, Dan O’Rourke, and Anyelo Luna are four outstanding veteran relievers, joined by rookie Big B Jay Forsythe, an effective rookie douchebag who went to Florida State and has a douchebag nickname to accompany him.
Despite Eberle and Danny Richardson being terrible at keeping runners from stealing on them, Seattle and Kansas City don’t have an appetite for stealing bases.
The Case Against: Toronto’s lost Arturo Reineri for most of the playoffs, and he’s been perhaps their best player—an elite glove with power, who hit well from both sides of the plate. Matt Aceto and Harland Guenette are well equipped to substitute, but it results in a team with a little less defense and depth.
Toronto is only ninth in average and has a poor offensive BABIP. If Cleveland continues to prevent the long ball, Toronto can get a lot of runners on with nothing to show for it.
Danny Richardson has extreme platoon splits that could be an issue against the balanced attacks of Boston and Seattle, or Kansas City’s Dalton/Vargas duo.
Richardson and Eberle being terrible at preventing steals could be issues against good base stealing teams in Cleveland and Boston.
Deciding Questions: How does Toronto do with men on base? They’ll likely get opportunities against Cleveland, but can they capitalize?
Can Mike Robles’ charmed rookie year continue? The 22 year old hit .343 with eight homers, six doubles, and two triples in only 35 games. If he’s for real, he could provide the batting average Toronto needs to be a complete team.
Can Marc Eberle have a big postseason? Eberle has been horrendous in his playoff career, with an 0-5 record and a 9.53 ERA. If he can’t perform in the Wild Card Game, Toronto will have an early exit.
Kansas City Royals
The Case For: Kansas City’s best hitters are left-handed, but the majority are right-handed, meaning right-handed pitchers are at a disadvantage against the team’s best hitters, and left-handed pitchers are at a disadvantage against most of the team’s hitters. The Royals led the league in in triples, and were third in doubles, showing offensive resiliency even when the team isn’t hitting homers.
Kansas City’s rotation is deep. No starter had an ERA higher than 3.88, and ace Vincente Corado will be the AL Cy Young discussion. While the bullpen has not been as strong this year, the unit is made up of arms with excellent playoff track records. The unit is elite at limiting homers, preventing walks, and striking hitters out
The Case Against: Roderick Dalton’s OPS+ has been 23 points lower than their prior career worst OPS+. If he’s not hitting like a superstar, Kansas City’s offense is far more ordinary. The team has an elite BABIP, but Seattle and Toronto have elite BABIP prevention, which could doom them.
Kansas City has the second fewest stolen bases and is dead last in baserunning, so they won’t be able to pick up extra runs with their baserunning. The team’s defense isn’t as good as previous iterations, especially on the right side. Left-handed hitting may cause some problems.
Deciding Questions: Who will show up? The Roderick Dalton of years past, or the Dalton of the 2032 regular season?
Ctrl + V. Who will show up. The KC bullpen of years past, or the KC bullpen of the 2032 regular season?
Luis Nunez was the Royals role player who overachieved in the regular season and parlayed that into a big postseason. Can Jonathan Bakos do the same thing this postseason?
Boston Red Sox
The Case For: The defending champions are deep, talented, and experienced. Boston led the AL in runs with an elite offense that led the league in OBP, OPS, and doubles. Boston controlled the strike zone with the second fewest whiffs in the AL, yet still cracked the highest slugging percentage in the league. Four healthy regulars hit at least 28 homers, not counting Stud Morales, who may miss the ALDS.
Last year’s postseason pitching heroes, Chris Donnelson and Sergio Navarro arguably had even better years this year, and the bullpen was filthy. Six of Boston’s seven man pen had an ERA of 3.03 or better, and the club led the league in ERA.
Boston is third in steals and allowed the second fewest steals in the league, so they control the running game on both sides of the ball.
The Case Against: Stud Morales is arguably Boston’s best player, and he’ll miss the ALDS. John Lacy was the 2031 playoff hero, and he’s in Detroit. That’s a big talent loss, even if Joe Taylor will play this postseason after missing last year’s.
Boston only has two left-handed pitchers on their team, which could be a problem against Jorge Vargas, and Tony Sierra. The team has poor defenders on the left side though, which could be an issue against right-handed hitters.
Mike Ball is also the ultimate boom-or-bust manager, with the highest playoff highs, but a number of inexplicable playoff losses.
Deciding Questions: John Lacy saved Boston so many times in 2031. Will they miss his clutch performance in 2032?
Will Boston miss Stud Morales in the ALDS?
Will Mike Ball win a championship or lose the opening playoff series? There's no in between.
Seattle Mariners
The Case For: Seattle has two current MVP candidates in Angelo Santiago and Tony Sierra, plus last year’s MVP Ivan Johnson playing at a similar pace this year. That’s a lot of star power, backed up with Ji-hu Kim’s power, and Pat Hembree’s all-around offensive play.
Seattle has great pitching, but their defense is even better. Seattle easily led the AL in Zone Rating, and it’s not impossible to imagine a world where Seattle’s catcher, middle infield, and entire outfield claim six Gold Gloves. The Mariners lead the AL in strikeout rate and BABIP, a brutal combination for opposing hitters.
Three of Seattle’s four most likely starting pitchers had an ERA under 3, and the back of the bullpen with Ignacio Soto, Dan Farris, and Mike Longtine have been excellent. Also, Seattle has the luxury of multiple left-handed arms.
The Case Against: Raimfer Salinas’ injury saps an established hitter at a premium defensive position. Seattle doesn’t have the deepest lineup, so his loss is a big one.
Lefties Bryce Zettel, Ji-hu Kim, and M.J. Melendez don’t hit for average at all, and switch hitters Ivan Johnson and Wander Samuel Franco hit better against lefties. Good right-handed pitching could be a problem for the Mariners.
Regis Jentzsch and Monster Koch were terrible in the 2031 postseason. They’ll need to prove they can step up in the playoffs.
Deciding Questions: Can Mitch Wilson continue to step up in Raimfer Salinas’ absence?
Can the Mariners get production from the bottom of their order or will they be easy outs for good pitchers?
Ji-hu Kim hit 43 homers, but only hit .209. Whether or not he can run into some homers may be the difference between Seattle’ offense putting up crooked numbers or more modest production.
Predictions
Indians over Blue Jays in AL Wild Card Game
Toronto can draw a ton of walks, but it may not matter if Cleveland keeps them from getting hits and homers, and Eberle fails another playoff test.
Mariners over Indians 4-1 in ALDS
Red Sox over Royals 4-1 in ALDS
Seattle’s pitching and defense should smother Cleveland. The Indians will keep the games low-scoring, but it will be hard for them to get over the hump, especially if Salinas is healed.
Kansas City doesn’t seem as potent as years past, and Boston is a very well put together team. Boston should be able to rely on late-inning magic to advance to the ALCS.
Red Sox over Mariners 4-2 in ALDS
Boston has the deeper offense, and their righty pitchers should be able to do okay against Seattle. The Red Sox had success against Seattle’s pitching last year, and should have some success this year.