Post by Wes Pirates on Sept 14, 2024 15:24:25 GMT -5
The NL West might just be the best divison in baseball. From top to bottom you have stong teams. The Padres made the world series as a Wild Card, the Dodgers and Giants are powerhouses. Colorado's making one last run at a divison title while Arizona has quietly assembled the best farm system around.
1. San Francisco Giants
2032: 95-67, Lost to the division rival Padres in the NLCS
2033 Preseason prediction: 84-78
GM and Manager: Michael Strosko (new to SF)
Major Acquisitions: SP Luis Detres, SP Bryan Beauvais, C Sam McMillan, LF Nick Markell
Big losses: LF Andrew Benintendi, SP Mekhi Lias, P Blaine Enlow.
Benintendi generated 3.8 WAR last year while leading the team in walks, and OBP. He scored 84 runs, slugged 20 HR, and 65 RBI. Lias started 21 games in 2032 and was a solid part of the rotation leading the team in winning percentage.
Rookie Watch: 1B Evaisto Caaleiro(#9), 1B Mike Meave(#91), SP Caleb Swingley, CF Devin Elam
Outlook: The Giants manage to return almost their entire roster intact with the exception of a big hole in LF. Andrew Benintendi isn’t quite ready to hang up his cleats yet at 38. He still wants to play, but it looks like he’ll have to do that somewhere other than San Francisco. After 4 seasons, in which he generated 13.8 WR, the 5-time AL MVP will be hard to replace. Tasked with that unenviable job will be Nick Markell who acquired from Oakland via trade in the offseason.
On News Years Eve, San Francisco completed a blockbuster trade with the Los Angeles Angels, giving up their 1st and 2nd round picks, team Captain Jorge Cotto, #34 prospect Orlando Monje, and 21yr old promising catcher Adrian De La Cruz for 2 players, Catcher Sam McMillian and SP Bryan Beauvais. Both players will need to be major contributors for the Giants this year if they want to repeat as Division Champions.
The Giants look to field a pretty average offense again this year, but they managed to improve upon what is arguably the best pitching team in the league, leading in both Pitching WAR and FIP last year. That team returns its top 4 starters and their most trusted relievers. They took a chance on SP Luis Detres, the 28-year-old former Rookie of the Year who’s in the middle of a year long absence due to a torn rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder. Detres looks to be ready around the All-Star break and could bolster the depth on what already looks to be one of the best rotations in Baseball. San Francisco’s pitchers need to be great because the gloves playing defense behind them are terrible. The Giants had the 3rd worst Zone Rating in all of baseball at -33.08.
Best Case Scenario: Giants continue to stay on top of the best division in the MLB and make a deep playoff run.
Worst Case Scenario: Willemsen’s wonky back goes out again and he misses some time. 2030 Juan Campos returns. The Giants can’t score enough and miss the playoffs entirely.
Key Questions:
- Losing Benintendi will be a huge blow to what was a league average offense. Do you think you can recreate him in the aggregate with your offseason additions?
- Did you actively try to improve your team’s defense with your offseason moves?
- Last year you had four pitchers make 30 or more starts and two relievers had more than 60 appearances. How confident are you in your pitching depth if the injury bug strikes this year
2. San Diego Padres
2032: 92-70 – Swept in the World Series
2033 Preseason prediction: 84-78
GM and Manager: Dalton Timmerman (2nd year)
Major Acquisitions: SS Royce Lewis, SP Stephen Marchant, SP Andy DeShaw
Big losses: 1B K.J. Harrison, RP Travis Crombie, SP Adrain Morejon
Morejon started 6 playoff games last year and had an ERA of 2.43 in those games. Crombie led the team with a miniscule 1.29 ERA on the season, Harrison was a stalwart player, leading the team with 154 games played and was 2nd on the team in just about every meaningful offensive stat.
Rookie Watch: LF Jimmy Jaster(#21), 3B Nick Lawrence(#22), SP Mike Vogel (#64)
Outlook: The Padres made a surprising World Series run after finishing 2nd in the division and securing the 2nd wildcard slot. Even with that Cinderella season, the Padres made a large amount offseason churn. While they lost some of last year’s key contributors, they brought in some names as well.
The Padres scored the fewest runs in the NL West last year, but they lead the division in ERA. While Morejon will be a big loss, they brought in 3 starting pitchers who generated at least 1 WAR last year. This rotation should be solid at the top and carry good depth.
K.J. Harrison only had $4.2m left on his contract and was traded away for just $1.5m in cash at age 36. The team then spent $25.5 on 33-year-old Royce Lewis. This continues to be one of the oldest teams in baseball with no one under 28 in the projected lineup.
Justin Lopez has a 5.3 ZR at shortstop last year, but struggled behind the plate so the Padres paid $25.5m to Royce Lewis who has a career 40.2 ZR at SS, but appears to have lost a step defensively at age 33 as he had a -3.8 ZR last year for Philly.
Best Case Scenario: The Padres win a ton of low-scoring division games and hang on in an extremely competitive division to make the playoffs.
Worst Case Scenario: Royce Lewis regresses as he turns 34 and the Padres’ bats let them down. They go from the World Series to division cellar in consecutive years.
Key Questions:
- You led the division in ERA, but you also had the second lowest ERA-FIP in the entire NL. Can last year’s pitching success be repeated or was it a single-season blip? Is the bullpen too thin behind Fleishman?
- The Padres were near the bottom of the league in both HRs and extra-base hits, Royce Lewis replaces K.J Harrison in the lineup but had fewer of both. You were tied for 8th in stolen bases which Lewis specializes in. Are you going for a more small-ball approach this year?
- The Padres have 4 prospects in the top 60, but none have played anything higher than A ball. Do you plan to accelerate their rise and could any of them see the field this year?
Bonus Question:
- Is the year you finally find a team who will trade for John Yancy?
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
2032: 89-73
2033 Preseason prediction: 97-65
GM and Manager: Ben Vincent
Major Acquisitions: RP Nihat Ecevit, SP Eddy Romero
Big losses: C Hyo-sang Cho, RF Nomar Mazara, 1B Patrick Leonard, SP Dale Messina, 1B Andres Chaparro
The Dodgers had a brutal offseason on paper, losing 16 players that generated a combined 16.1 WAR last year and only acquiring 8 players with a combined 2.0 WAR.
Rookie Watch: 1B Brandon Sutphin
Outlook: The 2032 Dodgers had a combined payroll of $233.8m, their current payroll for 2033 is down to $191.1m. If the Dodgers can manage to achieve their preseason predictions and win the West by double-digit games, all with an 18% reduction in payroll that would be an impressive feat.
Cody Saunderson generated 7.2 WAR in his age 22 season, cruising to Rookie-of-the-Year, while collecting a Gold Glove and All-Star appearance along the way. He would have to be in consideration for the 1.01 pick in a full hypothetical Fantasy Draft and looks to be emerging as a possible all-time great.
However, after Saunderson, the Dodgers next 4 hitters in 2032 WAR are all at least 32 years old, as is their top Starter and 2 more member of their rotation. With zero top-100 prospects and only four in the top 250, the next few years could be questionable unless the Dodgers flex their financial muscle and buy their way through Saunderson’s prime, which is always a possibility.
Best Case Scenario: Cody Saunderson cements himself as the leader of the next generation of great ballplayers and the Dodgers cruise through the West and straight into a Championship
Worst Case Scenario: Multiple key players regress as they age, Saunderson doesn’t produce another 7.2 WAR season, and they miss the playoffs entirely in a very crowded NL West.
Key Questions:
- You let a lot of talent walk in FA, and have an additional $80m in contracts that either expire after this year or have team options. Is this last run before a retool?
- If this year starts badly, is there any possibility in trading Saunderson to jump-start a full rebuild?
4. Colorado Rockies
2032: 80-82
2033 Preseason prediction: 86-76
GM and Manager: Erick Blasco
Major Acquisitions: 2B Miguel Hiraldo, CF Vinny Escudero
Big Losses: 1B Jake Burger, SP Thomas Szapucki, 2B Brady McConnell, 3B Wilkerman Garcia
No major losses here, just a few players past their prime walking into FA.
Rookie Watch: SP Marcos Rubio(#92), C Jon Petrella, SP Jayden Turner
Outlook: Let’s just get the elephants in the room out of the way. Colorado has never won their division in the history of the PBA and this year’s Rockies’s team has the oldest roster in MLB. This team may have the largest window between best-case and worst-case scenarios of any team in baseball. The NL West is consistently one of the best divisions in baseball and this year looks to be no exception.
The Achilles heal of this team may end up being be the bullpen. Only 1 projected starting pitcher has a stamina rating over 7 so the bullpen will throw a lot of innings this year. Josh Harmon is the only lefty in relief and before 2032 he had negative WAR in MLB. Closer Charlie Dougan is coming off the worst season of his career and at age 31 that might be the new norm.
The 2033 Rockies have some great players and excellent depth. If the stars can all stay healthy, and that’s a big IF considering their history, the rest of the division might just cannibalize each other enough for it to come down to the final week of the season. At that point, anything can happen.
Best Case Scenario: 75% of team forgoes spending time with their grandkids and somehow manage to stave off Father Time. With a hefty dose of pluck and gumption, they hidden-ball-trick their way into a division title with a magical run that will eventually be chronicled in a straight-to-streaming movie on Disney+. (Seriously, this team is very old)
Worst Case Scenario: Multiple star players on this team have long injuries in their history. Miguel Hiraldo took 2032 completely off. If the Injury bug strikes, the Rockies could be looking up at the rest of the NL west from the cellar.
Key Questions:
- How concerned are you with your bullpen in general and with only rostering 2 lefties total this year?
- Does the age and injury history of your star players put a ceiling on how good you can be this year?
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
2032: 67-95
2033 Preseason prediction: 79-83
GM and Manager: Jack Moeser
Major Acquisitions: SP Shane Baz, 38 Luis Urias
Big losses: SP Jim D’Amico, CF Vinny Escudero
Rookie Watch: RF Jorge Rojas(#4), 3B Shane Moore(#16), SP Alejando Salazar(#30), SP Chris Diaz(#41), SP Yue-Jiu Kung(#60), SP Javy Lema(#94), 1B Brian Kahn
Outlook: It’s been 10 years since the Diamondbacks won the West, and they haven’t managed to finish better than 3rd in that time. But while they may not have been winning a ton on the field, they have been having great success in the Prospect Pipeline. Arizona has 5! top 50 prospects and 11 top 200. 8 of those 11 could realistically spend some time in the Majors this year.
Arizona fielded a full 60-man roster for Spring training, so there’s a lot of different ways this team could go to start the year, but they dished out some large contracts this offseason which hints that the time is now for the Diamodbacks’ prospects.
2033 might be a little soon for everything to come together, but with the Rockies and Dodgers fielding the oldest and fourth oldest teams in MLB respectively, look out for this Diamondbacks team over the next few years. With the right veteran signings Arizona could be one of the favorites to win the NL West over the next 4-5 years.
Best Case Scenario: Arizona calls up most of their top prospects and everything gels. The Cardinals make a Cinderella run to a Wildcard spot.
Worst Case Scenario: They keep the prospects down for one more year, Baz begins his decline and the Diamondbacks finish with a respectable record, but last in what be the best division in the MLB.
Key Questions:
- How many of your top prospects are going start the year in the majors?
- Do the signings of Baz and Urias mean this is the year the Diamondbacks go for it?
- How optimistic are you for the next 3-5 years in Arizona?
1. San Francisco Giants
2032: 95-67, Lost to the division rival Padres in the NLCS
2033 Preseason prediction: 84-78
GM and Manager: Michael Strosko (new to SF)
Major Acquisitions: SP Luis Detres, SP Bryan Beauvais, C Sam McMillan, LF Nick Markell
Big losses: LF Andrew Benintendi, SP Mekhi Lias, P Blaine Enlow.
Benintendi generated 3.8 WAR last year while leading the team in walks, and OBP. He scored 84 runs, slugged 20 HR, and 65 RBI. Lias started 21 games in 2032 and was a solid part of the rotation leading the team in winning percentage.
Rookie Watch: 1B Evaisto Caaleiro(#9), 1B Mike Meave(#91), SP Caleb Swingley, CF Devin Elam
Outlook: The Giants manage to return almost their entire roster intact with the exception of a big hole in LF. Andrew Benintendi isn’t quite ready to hang up his cleats yet at 38. He still wants to play, but it looks like he’ll have to do that somewhere other than San Francisco. After 4 seasons, in which he generated 13.8 WR, the 5-time AL MVP will be hard to replace. Tasked with that unenviable job will be Nick Markell who acquired from Oakland via trade in the offseason.
On News Years Eve, San Francisco completed a blockbuster trade with the Los Angeles Angels, giving up their 1st and 2nd round picks, team Captain Jorge Cotto, #34 prospect Orlando Monje, and 21yr old promising catcher Adrian De La Cruz for 2 players, Catcher Sam McMillian and SP Bryan Beauvais. Both players will need to be major contributors for the Giants this year if they want to repeat as Division Champions.
The Giants look to field a pretty average offense again this year, but they managed to improve upon what is arguably the best pitching team in the league, leading in both Pitching WAR and FIP last year. That team returns its top 4 starters and their most trusted relievers. They took a chance on SP Luis Detres, the 28-year-old former Rookie of the Year who’s in the middle of a year long absence due to a torn rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder. Detres looks to be ready around the All-Star break and could bolster the depth on what already looks to be one of the best rotations in Baseball. San Francisco’s pitchers need to be great because the gloves playing defense behind them are terrible. The Giants had the 3rd worst Zone Rating in all of baseball at -33.08.
Best Case Scenario: Giants continue to stay on top of the best division in the MLB and make a deep playoff run.
Worst Case Scenario: Willemsen’s wonky back goes out again and he misses some time. 2030 Juan Campos returns. The Giants can’t score enough and miss the playoffs entirely.
Key Questions:
- Losing Benintendi will be a huge blow to what was a league average offense. Do you think you can recreate him in the aggregate with your offseason additions?
- Did you actively try to improve your team’s defense with your offseason moves?
- Last year you had four pitchers make 30 or more starts and two relievers had more than 60 appearances. How confident are you in your pitching depth if the injury bug strikes this year
2. San Diego Padres
2032: 92-70 – Swept in the World Series
2033 Preseason prediction: 84-78
GM and Manager: Dalton Timmerman (2nd year)
Major Acquisitions: SS Royce Lewis, SP Stephen Marchant, SP Andy DeShaw
Big losses: 1B K.J. Harrison, RP Travis Crombie, SP Adrain Morejon
Morejon started 6 playoff games last year and had an ERA of 2.43 in those games. Crombie led the team with a miniscule 1.29 ERA on the season, Harrison was a stalwart player, leading the team with 154 games played and was 2nd on the team in just about every meaningful offensive stat.
Rookie Watch: LF Jimmy Jaster(#21), 3B Nick Lawrence(#22), SP Mike Vogel (#64)
Outlook: The Padres made a surprising World Series run after finishing 2nd in the division and securing the 2nd wildcard slot. Even with that Cinderella season, the Padres made a large amount offseason churn. While they lost some of last year’s key contributors, they brought in some names as well.
The Padres scored the fewest runs in the NL West last year, but they lead the division in ERA. While Morejon will be a big loss, they brought in 3 starting pitchers who generated at least 1 WAR last year. This rotation should be solid at the top and carry good depth.
K.J. Harrison only had $4.2m left on his contract and was traded away for just $1.5m in cash at age 36. The team then spent $25.5 on 33-year-old Royce Lewis. This continues to be one of the oldest teams in baseball with no one under 28 in the projected lineup.
Justin Lopez has a 5.3 ZR at shortstop last year, but struggled behind the plate so the Padres paid $25.5m to Royce Lewis who has a career 40.2 ZR at SS, but appears to have lost a step defensively at age 33 as he had a -3.8 ZR last year for Philly.
Best Case Scenario: The Padres win a ton of low-scoring division games and hang on in an extremely competitive division to make the playoffs.
Worst Case Scenario: Royce Lewis regresses as he turns 34 and the Padres’ bats let them down. They go from the World Series to division cellar in consecutive years.
Key Questions:
- You led the division in ERA, but you also had the second lowest ERA-FIP in the entire NL. Can last year’s pitching success be repeated or was it a single-season blip? Is the bullpen too thin behind Fleishman?
- The Padres were near the bottom of the league in both HRs and extra-base hits, Royce Lewis replaces K.J Harrison in the lineup but had fewer of both. You were tied for 8th in stolen bases which Lewis specializes in. Are you going for a more small-ball approach this year?
- The Padres have 4 prospects in the top 60, but none have played anything higher than A ball. Do you plan to accelerate their rise and could any of them see the field this year?
Bonus Question:
- Is the year you finally find a team who will trade for John Yancy?
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
2032: 89-73
2033 Preseason prediction: 97-65
GM and Manager: Ben Vincent
Major Acquisitions: RP Nihat Ecevit, SP Eddy Romero
Big losses: C Hyo-sang Cho, RF Nomar Mazara, 1B Patrick Leonard, SP Dale Messina, 1B Andres Chaparro
The Dodgers had a brutal offseason on paper, losing 16 players that generated a combined 16.1 WAR last year and only acquiring 8 players with a combined 2.0 WAR.
Rookie Watch: 1B Brandon Sutphin
Outlook: The 2032 Dodgers had a combined payroll of $233.8m, their current payroll for 2033 is down to $191.1m. If the Dodgers can manage to achieve their preseason predictions and win the West by double-digit games, all with an 18% reduction in payroll that would be an impressive feat.
Cody Saunderson generated 7.2 WAR in his age 22 season, cruising to Rookie-of-the-Year, while collecting a Gold Glove and All-Star appearance along the way. He would have to be in consideration for the 1.01 pick in a full hypothetical Fantasy Draft and looks to be emerging as a possible all-time great.
However, after Saunderson, the Dodgers next 4 hitters in 2032 WAR are all at least 32 years old, as is their top Starter and 2 more member of their rotation. With zero top-100 prospects and only four in the top 250, the next few years could be questionable unless the Dodgers flex their financial muscle and buy their way through Saunderson’s prime, which is always a possibility.
Best Case Scenario: Cody Saunderson cements himself as the leader of the next generation of great ballplayers and the Dodgers cruise through the West and straight into a Championship
Worst Case Scenario: Multiple key players regress as they age, Saunderson doesn’t produce another 7.2 WAR season, and they miss the playoffs entirely in a very crowded NL West.
Key Questions:
- You let a lot of talent walk in FA, and have an additional $80m in contracts that either expire after this year or have team options. Is this last run before a retool?
- If this year starts badly, is there any possibility in trading Saunderson to jump-start a full rebuild?
4. Colorado Rockies
2032: 80-82
2033 Preseason prediction: 86-76
GM and Manager: Erick Blasco
Major Acquisitions: 2B Miguel Hiraldo, CF Vinny Escudero
Big Losses: 1B Jake Burger, SP Thomas Szapucki, 2B Brady McConnell, 3B Wilkerman Garcia
No major losses here, just a few players past their prime walking into FA.
Rookie Watch: SP Marcos Rubio(#92), C Jon Petrella, SP Jayden Turner
Outlook: Let’s just get the elephants in the room out of the way. Colorado has never won their division in the history of the PBA and this year’s Rockies’s team has the oldest roster in MLB. This team may have the largest window between best-case and worst-case scenarios of any team in baseball. The NL West is consistently one of the best divisions in baseball and this year looks to be no exception.
The Achilles heal of this team may end up being be the bullpen. Only 1 projected starting pitcher has a stamina rating over 7 so the bullpen will throw a lot of innings this year. Josh Harmon is the only lefty in relief and before 2032 he had negative WAR in MLB. Closer Charlie Dougan is coming off the worst season of his career and at age 31 that might be the new norm.
The 2033 Rockies have some great players and excellent depth. If the stars can all stay healthy, and that’s a big IF considering their history, the rest of the division might just cannibalize each other enough for it to come down to the final week of the season. At that point, anything can happen.
Best Case Scenario: 75% of team forgoes spending time with their grandkids and somehow manage to stave off Father Time. With a hefty dose of pluck and gumption, they hidden-ball-trick their way into a division title with a magical run that will eventually be chronicled in a straight-to-streaming movie on Disney+. (Seriously, this team is very old)
Worst Case Scenario: Multiple star players on this team have long injuries in their history. Miguel Hiraldo took 2032 completely off. If the Injury bug strikes, the Rockies could be looking up at the rest of the NL west from the cellar.
Key Questions:
- How concerned are you with your bullpen in general and with only rostering 2 lefties total this year?
- Does the age and injury history of your star players put a ceiling on how good you can be this year?
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
2032: 67-95
2033 Preseason prediction: 79-83
GM and Manager: Jack Moeser
Major Acquisitions: SP Shane Baz, 38 Luis Urias
Big losses: SP Jim D’Amico, CF Vinny Escudero
Rookie Watch: RF Jorge Rojas(#4), 3B Shane Moore(#16), SP Alejando Salazar(#30), SP Chris Diaz(#41), SP Yue-Jiu Kung(#60), SP Javy Lema(#94), 1B Brian Kahn
Outlook: It’s been 10 years since the Diamondbacks won the West, and they haven’t managed to finish better than 3rd in that time. But while they may not have been winning a ton on the field, they have been having great success in the Prospect Pipeline. Arizona has 5! top 50 prospects and 11 top 200. 8 of those 11 could realistically spend some time in the Majors this year.
Arizona fielded a full 60-man roster for Spring training, so there’s a lot of different ways this team could go to start the year, but they dished out some large contracts this offseason which hints that the time is now for the Diamodbacks’ prospects.
2033 might be a little soon for everything to come together, but with the Rockies and Dodgers fielding the oldest and fourth oldest teams in MLB respectively, look out for this Diamondbacks team over the next few years. With the right veteran signings Arizona could be one of the favorites to win the NL West over the next 4-5 years.
Best Case Scenario: Arizona calls up most of their top prospects and everything gels. The Cardinals make a Cinderella run to a Wildcard spot.
Worst Case Scenario: They keep the prospects down for one more year, Baz begins his decline and the Diamondbacks finish with a respectable record, but last in what be the best division in the MLB.
Key Questions:
- How many of your top prospects are going start the year in the majors?
- Do the signings of Baz and Urias mean this is the year the Diamondbacks go for it?
- How optimistic are you for the next 3-5 years in Arizona?
