Game of the Week: July 3rd: SEA @ CWS

[rutledge]

Seattle Mariners (44-33) @ Chicago White Sox (47-28)



SEA: Rob Whalen (7-2, 2.95)

CWS: Carlos Martinez (8-2, 1.69)



The division favorite White Sox will face off against a wildcard hopeful, the Mariners, in one of this week’s most exciting matchups. While Seattle has been hit with some pitching injuries, and has also traded away a lot of Major League talent, they have been able to hold on to a well above average record, being led by young pitching and a seasoned lineup. The Sox, although, have been dominant this season, and look to end this rebuild a lot earlier than expected, with a very balanced team. 

Seattle		Chicago
4.8	R/G	4.7
4.3	RA/G	3.7
3.89	ERA	3.39
4.64	FIP	4.05
.752	OPS	.745
.327	wOBA	.323

These teams played one series earlier in the season, Seattle taking a very close two of three. The Mariners won the first two, 3-2 and 3-1, while Chicago convincingly won the third, 7-3. The White Sox pitching played great all three games, but Seattle's was able to do even better the first two. The White Sox bullpen blew the first game, and tried to blow it the third. Their starters had an outstanding 1.79 ERA, versus the Mariners' 3.38. The Chicago bullpen that series was largely a fluke, though, as they have been stellar throughout the season. 

Seattle		Chicago	Result
3	-	2	W: Hisashi Iwakuma L: Dan Otero HR: CWS: A. Benintendi SEA: none
3	-	1	W: Tony Zych L: Carlos Rodon HR: CWS: none SEA: M. Zunino, L. Cain
3	-	7	W: Eduardo Rodriguez L: Robert Stephenson HR: CWS: D. Peralta, Rafael Devers SEA: M. Zunino, L. Cain

Both scheduled starters have been amazing this season. Carlos is the Cy Young favorite, and is blowing away the competition. His ERA would set a single-season record by eighty points, and might stand for a while. Whalen has also killed it, to a tune of an ERA+ of 148. His ERA is largely fueled by weak contact, and a .249 BABIP. Whether this is good fortune or not will be shown Tuesday night. As for the pen, Chicago is well-balanced here with several productive arms, with southpaw Dan Jennings closing games. He's killed it this year, a strong candidate for the all star game and on track for 50 saves. On the western side, Edwin Diaz has been slightly worse, but typically is one of the best relievers in the league. Outside of him, the Mariners have traded away most of their talent here. Despite this, Brad Ziegler has stayed put and somehow has a 1.05 ERA. He's came out of nowhere, and will be well rested for the game. 

For Seattle, despite an aging lineup, it has managed top five in the league. Surprisingly, Cano has not been an impactful part of this. Out of the nine starters, he’s sixth in OPS. Adrian Beltre has been the best, despite being the oldest. They’re hitting a 2nd best .266 as a team, putting very much emphasis on getting on base. The White Sox lineup has been similar in this aspect, ranking top 5 in OBP and outside the top 10 in home runs. Benintendi and Peralta have both been some of the best in the league, with a 153/144 OPS+ respectively. Outside of them, though, there isn't that much. Chicago definitely has a very top heavy lineup, and can't produce much when Benintendi/Peralta aren't doing well.  

Despite the resemblance in their record, the Chicago White Sox are definite favorites with the best pitcher in the league on the mound. If the Mariners want to have a chance, Whalen has to go toe-to-toe with him, and hold Benintendi/Peralta at bay.  

---

Questions for the GMs: 

For Aaron Dunham, how do you feel your pitching will fare the rest of the season? Will they be able to support your offense well enough to get a second wildcard? Are you already looking ahead to the offseason with most of your bullpen gone? 

What are your thoughts on Cano’s performances this season? Is second base still locked up for him throughout most of his contract? What are your plans for him? 

How confident are you against CarMart? You won in his last start against you, Iwakuma outlasting him. 

For Mike Ball, Peralta has had a massive outbreak this season. With a couple of years left on his contract, are there any talks of extending him?  

You have a very top-heavy lineup. If something were to happen to Peralta/Benintendi, would you still be confident in a deep playoff run and division title? Who would take their places? 

The opposing starter, Rob Whalen, is 8th in the league with a 2.95 ERA, although his peripherals show him as barely average. Is this really just a fluke, or will your offense shut him down? 

[Mike RedSox]

Thank you for the thoughtful analysis, it's nice to finally get some respect for the quality of play we've displayed this year.  If you are a regular reader of the South Side Sentinel you may remember this preseason article pinnaclebaseballassn.proboards.com/post/757

You may also remember the commissioners response to this article:

I'm not sure how quickly the wins will come, but the amount of high-end young talent on your major league roster is astounding.

Really?  How quickly have they come?  Quite quickly thanks!

If you're an avid follower of everything I say, and you're probably not, then you will be shocked at this exchange:



For Mike Ball, Peralta has had a massive outbreak this season. With a couple of years left on his contract, are there any talks of extending him?

Peralta has broken out in a bad case of XBH, He's on pace for 48 this year.  His .355 BABIP is high, but not uncharacteristic for his hitting profile.  Some of those HR will probably turn back into doubles but we're ok with that.  As far as long term, David turns 32 before the end of the season and he has 2 more arb eligible seasons.  We're ok going year to year if he is and he seems happy.

You have a very top-heavy lineup. If something were to happen to Peralta/Benintendi, would you still be confident in a deep playoff run and division title? Who would take their places?

I would disagree with this just a little bit, Moncada and Guyer are doing a great job getting on base and that should continue.

We expect more from Hosmer and he is starting to show signs of a return to form his .826 OPS in June is a good sign.

Chris Koch has struggled at DH which is a shame, his performance in 2017 left us with a lot of hope. 

Tim Anderson and Christian Vazquez are here for their gloves, we don't want to put pressure on them to deliver at the plate.

But Devers, Devers must hit, we expect him to play with the heat of a thousand suns.  To his opponents he must give no quarter.  Death and pestilence will be left in his wake.  To all who challenge him, there must be an unflinching will to not only defeat but to decimate them and all the generations who follow them.  Pain, fear, and destruction shall be his tools...  victory is his only option.

Otherwise our minor league system is fairly barren.

The opposing starter, Rob Whalen, is 8th in the league with a 2.95 ERA, although his peripherals show him as barely average. Is this really just a fluke, or will your offense shut him down?

I asked Rafael Devers what he thought about Whalen and he punched me in the throat.  My guess is that unless this Whalen character can learn how to throw left handed or shed his propensity to give up the long ball in the next 24 hours he's in a lot of F'n trouble.

[torontogm]

First of all, I will take full responsibility for my season preview of the White Sox. I did not think they were prepared to take on the Indians. Kudos to them for getting it done so far. We'll see if they can keep it up.

I predicted a 3rd place finish (in the AL West) for my Seattle Mariners. That's right where I am now. The pitching has been worse than anticipated, but the hitting has been better. I still have hope that my arms can correct themselves.

How do you feel your pitching will fare the rest of the season? Will they be able to support your offense well enough to get a second wildcard? Are you already looking ahead to the offseason with most of your bullpen gone?

My pitching is my weak link, which I hate! I like to build my teams around defense and home run prevention, and my staff has not done the latter. I'm hoping they improve. I have made moves to try and make the most out of my pitching talent, and with improvement, a wild card is in the picture.

As for my bullpen, I was looking ahead in those deals. I have guys on their last option year, and wanted to move them before I was forced to waive any next year. I feel like I got good value overall. I'd argue that my bullpen is still strong, however. I had enormous depth and still have a unit strong enough to compete at the ML level.

What are your thoughts on Cano’s performances this season? Is second base still locked up for him throughout most of his contract? What are your plans for him?

I am not a fan of Cano at second base. He will DH for me the remainder of the year, and likely in 2019. As with all of my Mariners teams in OOTP, I root for him to retire.

How confident are you against CarMart? You won in his last start against you, Iwakuma outlasting him.

I'm confident against any team or player. We have a team good enough to compete with anyone, even if we aren't the "best" team. I think the White Sox's record reflects the truth: they are the better team here. But I still give the Mariners a chance against CMart.

[rutledge]

Mariners 0 - White Sox 7



WP: Carlos Martinez (9-2)

LP: Rob Whalen (7-3)





The game got started quickly for the White Sox, as CarMart sat down three in the top of the first on just 11 pitches. Guyer got the party started as he singled with one out, and seconds later, they were up two to nothing as Benintendi continued his tear, knocking one 458 feet. They would never look back.

In the top of the second, Seattle had probably their best chance to score erased. Benintendi showed off his defensive prowess, throwing out Robinson Cano from center field. The inning was ended the next batter, on a Gamel groundout. The Mariners had back to back singles in the fourth also, but Martinez struck out the next two batters to get out of it. They would get a single hit for the rest of the game.

As for the Chicago offense, it was a great day. Rafael Devers was beaned to lead off the fourth, and that was followed by a double & single, scoring him. Eric Hosmer grounded into an RBI double play, making it four to nothing. In the next inning, Moncada singled with no outs, and was followed by yet another hit by pitch. Devers & Anderson had back-to-back singles to score the pair. Jose Iglesias turned a quick double play to end the inning, preventing any more damage. The day was finished for Chicago after Eric Hosmer singled in their final run in the eighth.

Wilking Rodriguez came in to the ninth to relieve Carlos, who had thrown 106 pitches in eight innings. Seattle fought off several pitches, but all three flied out to center field. Carlos Martinez received player of the game honors, as he was almost untouchable, allowing four hits and three walks, none of them reaching home plate. He had nine strikeouts and lowered his season ERA to 1.56.

On the other side, Rob Whalen had a very poor day. He was pulled early, and ended with six runs on six hits & a walk, in just four innings. This raised his ERA almost half a run, to 3.39. Their relievers finished the day with much less damage, throwing four solid innings.

Questions for the GMs:



For Mike Ball, the Mariners, a playoff team, were handled with ease. Is this a preview for how the playoffs will go? Do you believe Chicago should be world series favorites?


Your offense showed out today, but they are still ranked 11th in scoring. Who do you think will step up and help this team through the playoffs?


For Aaron Dunham, Whalen struggled..but he still stands with the best ERA in your rotation. Is he your ace going into potential playoff matchups?


How will Matt Moore and Taylor Guerrieri slot back into your staff as they come back from injury?

[Commissioner Erick]

I'd like Aaron to once again state how confident he is going up against Carlos Martinez.

[torontogm]

I again will reiterate that I am confident against any team or pitcher. Not saying I expect to win every game, but I think we have a team capable of competing at any time. Of course, some games we won't, and clearly, we didn't against the White Sox.

Whalen struggled..but he still stands with the best ERA in your rotation. Is he your ace going into potential playoff matchups?

Whalen is definitely not our ace. He has been lucky this year and is likely to regress during the second half of the season. My ace, at this point, is probably still Dan Staily.

How will Matt Moore and Taylor Guerrieri slot back into your staff as they come back from injury?

Matt Moore has regressed and will likely have his option declined this offseason. That being said, he will return to the rotation immediately upon being healthy, bumping Jenkins or some other overachieving right hander from the rotation. Guerrieri is likely to spend this season in AAA, but he may be a rotation option next year.

[Mike RedSox]

For Mike Ball, the Mariners, a playoff team, were handled with ease.
This is not a question, but I will provide comment.  I agree they were handled with ease.  Just kidding, it's fun being in the GOTW, for you all, to watch me destroy my opponents.

Is this a preview for how the playoffs will go?
Doubtful, I do have 4 good pitchers but not much depth after that.  My bullpen is solid, underrated.

Do you believe Chicago should be world series favorites?
No, we're just having a hot streak.  There's a lot of season left.

Your offense showed out today, but they are still ranked 11th in scoring. Who do you think will step up and help this team through the playoffs?
Devers and Hosmer started off slow.  I think my offense will pick up in the 2nd half, but I think the pitching will decline a bit.