Post by Commissioner Erick on Mar 14, 2018 12:28:17 GMT -5
Baltimore Orioles (69-57) @ San Francisco Giants (74-48)
BAL: Andrew Cashner (7-9, 4.02)
SF: Drew Smyly (5-4, 4.59)
The Baltimore Orioles would love to get to a winner-take-all Wild Card Game this October.
The San Francisco Giants would love to avoid it.
Playoff hopefuls square off when the Baltimore Orioles take on the San Francisco Giants.
The Orioles have been playing good baseball this month but are coming off a series loss to the red hot New York Yankees. They've dropped to a game out of the AL wild card spot, behind the Yankees and Astros, but with plenty of time left. They've done it with offense this year as they have the AL's fourth best on base percentage and third best slugging mark to equal the second most runs scored.
Manny Machado is the team's best player and a legitimate MVP candidate. After a stellar 2017, he's taken it up a notch this year and a .400 on base mark with 40 home runs isn't out of the question. He leads the AL in OPS, and leads AL third basemen in zone rating, which combined also has him leading AL position players in WAR.
Five other Orioles already have at least 15 home runs making the Baltimore lineup a deep one as well. Adam Jones, for example, has been key to their win streak. Baltimore had a losing record in July with Jones dealing with a bad back. He rested up and is having his best month, with a .302 average and five home runs so far.
However, as good as Baltimore's offense has been, their pitching has been more questionable. Their bullpen, despite an excellent year by Zach Britton, is only 10th in ERA. Manager Jeff Jennings in the past has highlighted his pen as a concern and the key to his season. They've certainly been adequate, but with so many competitors for a playoff spot, that may not be good enough.
Mychal Givens can be looked at as a scapegoat as he has an ERA of 6.03 and 39 walks in 37.1 innings (!!!). However, he also has six wins. He's done his best work hoping for Baltimore comebacks, but he also has more meltdowns than shutdowns thus far. Thankfully the rest of the staff has ranged from good to adequate with the team getting good mileage from Rule V pickup Jared Lakind, who has a 2.83 ERA.
Their bullpen has been similar with a standout, a nightmare, and some degrees of adequate, including tonight's starter Andrew Cashner. Panned for given a five year $57.5 million contract, he's been a measure of stability, turning in remarkably similar walk, strikeout, and home run rates as his 2017 campaign in Texas, plus he's gotten some better BABIP luck to boot. His ERA is a solid 4.02 with a serviceable 4.48 FIP remarkably consistent with a 4.50 2017 FIP. He's been a perfectly serviceable starter, though Baltimore may need a touch more to beat a very good San Francisco team.
The Giants, like Baltimore, have a very patient lineup. Unlike Baltimore which supplements with extra base power, San Francisco supplements with pitching, defense, and smallball. They rank second in runs allowed, second in zone rating, third in wSB, and first in sacrifice bunts.
However, they'll be sending out their worst pitcher tonight as Drew Smyly has struggled after a strong 2017 campaign. His walks are up, his home runs are way up, and his strikeouts have dipped. He won 19 games total last season and had a 3.06 ERA as a Giant last year. This year, his ERA has ballooned up to 4.59.
The culprit may lie in his home road splits. In 2017, Smyly had an ERA of 5.18 on the road and 2.71 at home. This season, his ERA is 5.20 on the road and 3.64 at home. As we can see, the road ERA is the same, but the home ERA has jumped. Last year, Smyly gave up the same number of home runs at home as on the road, but this year, he's given up a greater rate of long balls on the road than at home.
So why has his ERA at home jumped? Last year, Smyly walked 18 batters at home all season in 119.2 innings, which is a remarkable number. He's already walked 26 in 71.2 innings this year. He's simply lost his pristine control he had last year, which is bad news for a Baltimore team that really works pitchers.
Thankfully for San Francisco, like Manny Machado in Baltimore, they also have an MVP candidate at third base. Christian Arroyo's numbers in his first full season in the majors are way up. He's now batting .336 with a .406 OBP, both league-leaders. He has 11 homers, 11 steals, and an NL-leading 36 doubles. He has the best fielding percentage among NL third basemen which totals up to him having the highest WAR among NL position players. He also has a .455 average in extra innings so he really steps up when the game is most tense.
San Francisco may need Arroyo to outplay Machado for the Giants to win.
Questions for the GMs:
For Jeff Jennings, Anthony Santander had people talking, but he hasn't hit much above Double-A in his career. Where does he stand in your organization?
Andrew Cashner has turned in a season similar to last year. How do you feel about the signing nearly a year into the first season?
It feels like every time we check in on your team Mychal Givens is doing something outrageous. How has it been managing him this year?
For Samuel Rutledge, Michael Brantley has some mils shoulder tendinitis. Will he play today?
Che-Hsuan Lin has barely approached even last year's subpar offensive standards, and has an OPS of .530. He also has nearly a full WAR in just 48 games. Can you get away with playing someone so offensively moribund?
Brandon Belt has not had a good year, but you've dropped him down to eighth in the lineup. What's been the story with him?
BAL: Andrew Cashner (7-9, 4.02)
SF: Drew Smyly (5-4, 4.59)
The Baltimore Orioles would love to get to a winner-take-all Wild Card Game this October.
The San Francisco Giants would love to avoid it.
Playoff hopefuls square off when the Baltimore Orioles take on the San Francisco Giants.
The Orioles have been playing good baseball this month but are coming off a series loss to the red hot New York Yankees. They've dropped to a game out of the AL wild card spot, behind the Yankees and Astros, but with plenty of time left. They've done it with offense this year as they have the AL's fourth best on base percentage and third best slugging mark to equal the second most runs scored.
Manny Machado is the team's best player and a legitimate MVP candidate. After a stellar 2017, he's taken it up a notch this year and a .400 on base mark with 40 home runs isn't out of the question. He leads the AL in OPS, and leads AL third basemen in zone rating, which combined also has him leading AL position players in WAR.
Five other Orioles already have at least 15 home runs making the Baltimore lineup a deep one as well. Adam Jones, for example, has been key to their win streak. Baltimore had a losing record in July with Jones dealing with a bad back. He rested up and is having his best month, with a .302 average and five home runs so far.
However, as good as Baltimore's offense has been, their pitching has been more questionable. Their bullpen, despite an excellent year by Zach Britton, is only 10th in ERA. Manager Jeff Jennings in the past has highlighted his pen as a concern and the key to his season. They've certainly been adequate, but with so many competitors for a playoff spot, that may not be good enough.
Mychal Givens can be looked at as a scapegoat as he has an ERA of 6.03 and 39 walks in 37.1 innings (!!!). However, he also has six wins. He's done his best work hoping for Baltimore comebacks, but he also has more meltdowns than shutdowns thus far. Thankfully the rest of the staff has ranged from good to adequate with the team getting good mileage from Rule V pickup Jared Lakind, who has a 2.83 ERA.
Their bullpen has been similar with a standout, a nightmare, and some degrees of adequate, including tonight's starter Andrew Cashner. Panned for given a five year $57.5 million contract, he's been a measure of stability, turning in remarkably similar walk, strikeout, and home run rates as his 2017 campaign in Texas, plus he's gotten some better BABIP luck to boot. His ERA is a solid 4.02 with a serviceable 4.48 FIP remarkably consistent with a 4.50 2017 FIP. He's been a perfectly serviceable starter, though Baltimore may need a touch more to beat a very good San Francisco team.
The Giants, like Baltimore, have a very patient lineup. Unlike Baltimore which supplements with extra base power, San Francisco supplements with pitching, defense, and smallball. They rank second in runs allowed, second in zone rating, third in wSB, and first in sacrifice bunts.
However, they'll be sending out their worst pitcher tonight as Drew Smyly has struggled after a strong 2017 campaign. His walks are up, his home runs are way up, and his strikeouts have dipped. He won 19 games total last season and had a 3.06 ERA as a Giant last year. This year, his ERA has ballooned up to 4.59.
The culprit may lie in his home road splits. In 2017, Smyly had an ERA of 5.18 on the road and 2.71 at home. This season, his ERA is 5.20 on the road and 3.64 at home. As we can see, the road ERA is the same, but the home ERA has jumped. Last year, Smyly gave up the same number of home runs at home as on the road, but this year, he's given up a greater rate of long balls on the road than at home.
So why has his ERA at home jumped? Last year, Smyly walked 18 batters at home all season in 119.2 innings, which is a remarkable number. He's already walked 26 in 71.2 innings this year. He's simply lost his pristine control he had last year, which is bad news for a Baltimore team that really works pitchers.
Thankfully for San Francisco, like Manny Machado in Baltimore, they also have an MVP candidate at third base. Christian Arroyo's numbers in his first full season in the majors are way up. He's now batting .336 with a .406 OBP, both league-leaders. He has 11 homers, 11 steals, and an NL-leading 36 doubles. He has the best fielding percentage among NL third basemen which totals up to him having the highest WAR among NL position players. He also has a .455 average in extra innings so he really steps up when the game is most tense.
San Francisco may need Arroyo to outplay Machado for the Giants to win.
Questions for the GMs:
For Jeff Jennings, Anthony Santander had people talking, but he hasn't hit much above Double-A in his career. Where does he stand in your organization?
Andrew Cashner has turned in a season similar to last year. How do you feel about the signing nearly a year into the first season?
It feels like every time we check in on your team Mychal Givens is doing something outrageous. How has it been managing him this year?
For Samuel Rutledge, Michael Brantley has some mils shoulder tendinitis. Will he play today?
Che-Hsuan Lin has barely approached even last year's subpar offensive standards, and has an OPS of .530. He also has nearly a full WAR in just 48 games. Can you get away with playing someone so offensively moribund?
Brandon Belt has not had a good year, but you've dropped him down to eighth in the lineup. What's been the story with him?
