Post by Commissioner Erick on Mar 21, 2018 19:24:58 GMT -5
Chicago Cubs (76-66) @ Houston Astros (78-64)
CHC: Chris Sale (9-11, 3.77)
HOU: Lance McCullers Jr. (10-6, 4.19)
The Chicago Cubs are finally getting healthy and starting to rack up wins. The Houston Astros are in do-or-die mode and need to go on a wild winning streak for any postseason hopes to come to fruition.
It's an interleague battle as two desperate teams, the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros, square off for the Game of the Week.
The Chicago Cubs have had several good stretches in the second half but they may be playing their best baseball right now. They've won nine of 12, all over the Cardinals and Brewers, to essentially turn the NL Central race into a two-team duel between themselves and the Pirates.
Aside from not having wunderkind Kris Bryant the entire year, the Cubs have lost Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Ian Happ, Jon Lester, Javier Baez, David Robertson, Cam Bedrosian, and Wade Davis to multi-week injuries this year. Many of those players, with the exception of Bryant, have healed up. That, combined with some major trade additions, has the Cubs surging.
The other season storyline involving the Cubs is the absurd, year-long stretch of underperforming their truer talent metrics. Their Pythagorean record has them as an 89-win team. Base Runs has them as a 92-win team. Their actual record is 76-66, 16-games behind what Base Runs thinks they are. That's staggering!
Normally in situations like this, there's a terrible bullpen involved. The Cubs have the second best bullpen ERA in the league. Sometimes the team simply struggles in close games. The Cubs are 10-14 in one-run affairs and 3-4 in extra innings—bad, but not awful. It may be that they have the ability to blow teams out but not get blown out themselves? The Cubs have eight wins this year by nine runs or more. They have one loss by that amount.
That points to a really talented team, but the record show that they aren't getting the most out of themselves. However, with their good healthy and strong play of late, maybe they're becoming the potential championship contender many thought they'd be before the season.
It can't be a coincidence that their season turned around roughly the same point Chris Sale made his first start as a Cub, July 16th. He turned in a three-hit, no-walk shutout of the Los Angeles Angels that day and has a 3.10 ERA and 0.92 WHIP as a Cub. He's taken to the team, the ballpark, and especially the excellent defense as his BABIP allowed as a Cub is .217. Part of the best pitching staff in baseball, he'll be a daunting challenge for any of the Cubs opponents in trying to knock them out of the playoff picture.
One of those challengers is the Astros. They've disappointingly lost series to the Angels and Twins recently, really cramping their playoff chances. They still play the Angels, Tigers, and A's down the stretch which should help their odds, but they also still play a Mariners team that may have something to play for, a Rays team that definitely has something to play for, and tonight's opponent, the Cubs. At 4.5 games back, they can't have any slip-ups.
What's held back their offense is Tony Kemp's magic running dry this month. Despite his 27-game hitting streak earlier, he's only had one multi-hit game this month despite hitting exclusively out of the leadoff spot. He's still drawing walks as teams are pitching more carefully to him, but with one extra base hit since August 14th, and a lot of weak contact, he hasn't been dangerous at the top of the order.
One would think that, against a great left hander like Sale, the Astros may be able to get a right-hander in the game instead, but Teoscar Hernandez has not taken that leap. He hit .341 against lefties in Triple A, but is just .130 in the majors. He did hit .283 with 16 home runs and 17 doubles in Triple-A this year, but he's been abominable in the majors this year, in Triple-A last year, and in the World Baseball Classic for the Dominican Republic in the spring, racking up no more than 0.1 WAR in the three stops combined.
Houston may need to win a low-scoring game, so it'll need to rely on a strong game from Lance McCullers Jr. It'll be a matchup of the top two pitchers in strikeout rate in the American League in 2017, but unlike Sale, McCullers Jr. also led the league in walks. In fact, among 85 pitchers to have pitched 150 innings in the AL the last two years, only Trevor Cahill has a larger walk rate than McCullers Jr. He's also allowed more home runs and his strikeout numbers have dipped this year. His 4.19 ERA is similar to last year, but it's been a shakier road to get there.
Recently, McCullers Jr. has turned in three straight starts of four or more runs and no more than 6 innings. Those three starts were on the road, so he'll be hoping for some home cooking tonight. He still throws three terrific pitches and can really miss bats, so it's possible he can come up with a gem even against a lineup like Chicago's.
Questions for the GMs:
For Brandon Hillebrand, your team has underperformed its expectations all season long. Reports are pointing to anything from luck, to the team's character, to the coaching staff, to you. Simply, why has your team struggled?
You cleared house with most of your coaching staff this year. How do you think they've performed on the whole?
Why did you specifically target the players you did at the trade deadline and how do you think they've fared for you?
For Sean Bain, McCullers Jr. has seen his numbers decline across the board. Do you have any idea why?
Tony Kemp has really struggled of late. Will you make a change?
Even as a backup Evan Gattis has the ability to put a charge into the ball. Will we see him in the lineup today?
CHC: Chris Sale (9-11, 3.77)
HOU: Lance McCullers Jr. (10-6, 4.19)
The Chicago Cubs are finally getting healthy and starting to rack up wins. The Houston Astros are in do-or-die mode and need to go on a wild winning streak for any postseason hopes to come to fruition.
It's an interleague battle as two desperate teams, the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros, square off for the Game of the Week.
The Chicago Cubs have had several good stretches in the second half but they may be playing their best baseball right now. They've won nine of 12, all over the Cardinals and Brewers, to essentially turn the NL Central race into a two-team duel between themselves and the Pirates.
Aside from not having wunderkind Kris Bryant the entire year, the Cubs have lost Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Ian Happ, Jon Lester, Javier Baez, David Robertson, Cam Bedrosian, and Wade Davis to multi-week injuries this year. Many of those players, with the exception of Bryant, have healed up. That, combined with some major trade additions, has the Cubs surging.
The other season storyline involving the Cubs is the absurd, year-long stretch of underperforming their truer talent metrics. Their Pythagorean record has them as an 89-win team. Base Runs has them as a 92-win team. Their actual record is 76-66, 16-games behind what Base Runs thinks they are. That's staggering!
Normally in situations like this, there's a terrible bullpen involved. The Cubs have the second best bullpen ERA in the league. Sometimes the team simply struggles in close games. The Cubs are 10-14 in one-run affairs and 3-4 in extra innings—bad, but not awful. It may be that they have the ability to blow teams out but not get blown out themselves? The Cubs have eight wins this year by nine runs or more. They have one loss by that amount.
That points to a really talented team, but the record show that they aren't getting the most out of themselves. However, with their good healthy and strong play of late, maybe they're becoming the potential championship contender many thought they'd be before the season.
It can't be a coincidence that their season turned around roughly the same point Chris Sale made his first start as a Cub, July 16th. He turned in a three-hit, no-walk shutout of the Los Angeles Angels that day and has a 3.10 ERA and 0.92 WHIP as a Cub. He's taken to the team, the ballpark, and especially the excellent defense as his BABIP allowed as a Cub is .217. Part of the best pitching staff in baseball, he'll be a daunting challenge for any of the Cubs opponents in trying to knock them out of the playoff picture.
One of those challengers is the Astros. They've disappointingly lost series to the Angels and Twins recently, really cramping their playoff chances. They still play the Angels, Tigers, and A's down the stretch which should help their odds, but they also still play a Mariners team that may have something to play for, a Rays team that definitely has something to play for, and tonight's opponent, the Cubs. At 4.5 games back, they can't have any slip-ups.
What's held back their offense is Tony Kemp's magic running dry this month. Despite his 27-game hitting streak earlier, he's only had one multi-hit game this month despite hitting exclusively out of the leadoff spot. He's still drawing walks as teams are pitching more carefully to him, but with one extra base hit since August 14th, and a lot of weak contact, he hasn't been dangerous at the top of the order.
One would think that, against a great left hander like Sale, the Astros may be able to get a right-hander in the game instead, but Teoscar Hernandez has not taken that leap. He hit .341 against lefties in Triple A, but is just .130 in the majors. He did hit .283 with 16 home runs and 17 doubles in Triple-A this year, but he's been abominable in the majors this year, in Triple-A last year, and in the World Baseball Classic for the Dominican Republic in the spring, racking up no more than 0.1 WAR in the three stops combined.
Houston may need to win a low-scoring game, so it'll need to rely on a strong game from Lance McCullers Jr. It'll be a matchup of the top two pitchers in strikeout rate in the American League in 2017, but unlike Sale, McCullers Jr. also led the league in walks. In fact, among 85 pitchers to have pitched 150 innings in the AL the last two years, only Trevor Cahill has a larger walk rate than McCullers Jr. He's also allowed more home runs and his strikeout numbers have dipped this year. His 4.19 ERA is similar to last year, but it's been a shakier road to get there.
Recently, McCullers Jr. has turned in three straight starts of four or more runs and no more than 6 innings. Those three starts were on the road, so he'll be hoping for some home cooking tonight. He still throws three terrific pitches and can really miss bats, so it's possible he can come up with a gem even against a lineup like Chicago's.
Questions for the GMs:
For Brandon Hillebrand, your team has underperformed its expectations all season long. Reports are pointing to anything from luck, to the team's character, to the coaching staff, to you. Simply, why has your team struggled?
You cleared house with most of your coaching staff this year. How do you think they've performed on the whole?
Why did you specifically target the players you did at the trade deadline and how do you think they've fared for you?
For Sean Bain, McCullers Jr. has seen his numbers decline across the board. Do you have any idea why?
Tony Kemp has really struggled of late. Will you make a change?
Even as a backup Evan Gattis has the ability to put a charge into the ball. Will we see him in the lineup today?
