Game of the Week: October 1: CHC @ PIT

[Commissioner Erick]

Chicago Cubs (84-72) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (80-75)

CHC: Alec Mills (15-10, 3.83)
PIT: Ivan Nova (9-11, 5.70)


A week ago, the Chicago Cubs won four one-run games against the Pittsburgh Pirates to put themselves on the doorstep of a National League Central title.

One more series win and they can turn the key, locking the Pirates out of the playoffs in the process.

The Chicago Cubs have won eight of 11 to put themselves 3.5 up on the Pirates in the NL Central. If they win the series, they'll be NL Central champions, and merely winning a game will put extreme pressure on the Pirates over the weekend. It's not inconceivable that the Cubs could even capture the second best record in the NL, and home field in the NLDS.

They got here on the backs of four dominant pitching matchups a week ago. Jake Arrieta, Chris Sale, Kyle Hendricks, and Alec Mills all worked at least 7 innings, allowing two or fewer runs, in a sweep of the Pirates. David Robertson got a pair of wins, and Justin Grimm and Carl Edwards Jr. each got saves.

Mills will get the start tonight, and despite the star power on the team, is the Cubs leader in wins with 15. Despite only striking out 15% of hitters, Mills has the seventh highest ground ball rate in the league among pitchers with 100 innings. His two-seam fastball, solid slider, and excellent changeup all break down allowing him to beat hitters by getting them to hit the ball on the ground.

From there, the Cubs have the best zone rating in baseball, with Albert Almora a good bet to win a Gold Glove in center field. Chicago has excellent defenders all over the diamond, which allows a contact-heavy pitcher like Mills to succeed.

He'll be facing a Pirates team that strikes out the second fewest times in the National League, as contact is the Pirates strength. However, so many of their hitters are slumping. Josh Harrison, such a strong hitter in 2017 and to start 2018, is hitting .204 since July. Austin Meadows is hitting only .208 in September. Gregory Polanco hit only .233 in August and .220 here in September. Andrew Stevenson is hitting .216 this month after a .200 August. There's just a lot of guys not hitting.

For a team that's second to last in home runs in the league, if the team's batting average drops, so does the team's output, a reason why the team is 13-15 in September. Then again, Pittsburgh has shown it can weather rough patches and not miss a beat. After a 4-8 stretch to begin the year, they rebounded to a 38-25 record in late June. They followed that with a stretch where they went 2-24, including owning a 20-game losing streak (!!!). Shortly after, a nine-game winning streak flowed into an 18-10 August that put them back in the hunt for a playoff spot.

For such a Jekyll-and-Hyde team, any version of the Pirates can show up. That's why, despite being underdogs, they shouldn't be counted out of any postseason scenarios.


Questions for the GM's:


For Brandon Hillebrand, you signed Colby Rasmus in July and stashed him in your minors. Now he's your starting left fielder? What led you to sign him in the first place?

You're facing a pitcher with the lowest strikeout rate of any pitcher to throw 200 innings last year. Does that change your approach at all?

You made a tweak from the last game of the week, putting Albert Almora in the leadoff spot. He responded by going 11-26 over the last six days. Why did you move him back up atop the lineup?

For Mike McAvoy, what a strange season. Any reflections on the year before the final week?

Ivan Nova has been pretty rough, but your bullpen is ranked third in league ERA. How long a hook do you give Nova tonight?

Your team is terrific at controlling contact, but Alec Mills is excellent at getting hitters to swing at his pitches. Would you like to see your guys try to make good contact low in the zone and get grounders through the infield, or try to yank the ball, perhaps rolling over and hitting weak grounders?

[brandoncubs]

Q 1) You signed Colby Rasmus in July and stashed him in your minors. Now he's your starting left fielder? What led you to sign him in the first place?
A 1) With Kris Bryant getting hurt in spring training, and ben zobrist hitting the shelf, coupled with Happ and Schwarber shitting the bed and eventually being traded, we needed some left fielder depth. Rasmus provides us a little bit of power and great defensive skills. The plan was to call him up during roster expansion, but now with Rademacher hurt, he has the opportunity to carve out a starting role the rest of the season.

Q 2) You're facing a pitcher with the lowest strikeout rate of any pitcher to throw 200 innings last year. Does that change your approach at all?
A 2) I feel like it may allow some of our power hitters to have a little more patience waiting for their pitch. The lack of a put-away pitch can only help our lineup.

Q 3) You made a tweak from the last game of the week, putting Albert Almora in the leadoff spot. He responded by going 11-26 over the last six days. Why did you move him back up atop the lineup?
A 3) I wasn't liking the current production we were having atop of the lineup, and felt a changeup was needed in order to provide a spark. Although we may have swept the Pirates earlier, I was not happy with the low-scoring games we churned out. I'm glad Almora has seemed to awakened with the change, and plan on keeping it going forward.

[pittsburghgm]

What a strange season. Any reflections on the year before the final week?

With so many injuries to start the year and pitching people we'd never dream of playing during this year I'd say no matter what happens this next week it was a success of a year. To even be in position for a division title going into the last week of the season is what every ML wants. You could say losing your top 3 starters pretty much right away would be a, What could of been type season but right now we're thinking... What can we do now?

Ivan Nova has been pretty rough, but your bullpen is ranked third in league ERA. How long a hook do you give Nova tonight?

Nova who really we expected to serve as a key member of the bullpen this season has really taken a beating heading into the fall months here. He's eaten up a bunch of innings as we try to hang on. Ideally we'd have Cole, Holmes or Tallion going tonight but that's baseball for you.

Your team is terrific at controlling contact, but Alec Mills is excellent at getting hitters to swing at his pitches. Would you like to see your guys try to make good contact low in the zone and get grounders through the infield, or try to yank the ball, perhaps rolling over and hitting weak grounders?

Right now its "let's put it into play" and see what happens. Getting players on base is and playing for that big moment is what we've lived on all year long and the young players like Bell and Meadows have really shown us they can do that in big moments. Whatever happens in this game, this has been a huge learning curve type year. Go Pirates!

[Commissioner Erick]

Cubs 11 - Pirates 4


WP: C. Edwards Jr. (2-2)
LP: I. Nova (9-12)


A.J. Ramos got the Cubs out of a big seventh inning jam to preserve a Cubs lead. The sequence may have jammed the Pirates playoff hopes.

Austin Meadows and Erich Weiss couldn't get a man home from second in the seventh inning, the Cubs bullpen allowed only one run in 6.1 innings, and the Chicago Cubs put themselves in position to win the NL Central with one more win in the series with an 11-4 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Down 5-4 in the seventh, the Pirates had a big chance to tie the game. With one out, Gregory Polanco legged out a double to center field off A.J. Ramos. However, Ramos got Meadows to pop out to Jeimer Candelario for the second out of the inning, before striking out Erich Weiss to end the frame.

In the bottom of the frame, the Pirates playoff odds were gashed. Daniel Hudson allowed a home run to Javier Baez before being pulled for Dan Runtzler. Runtzler threw a wild pitch allowing Baez to score, and allowed an infield hit to Ben Zobrist before exiting. A Josh Bell error and Jason Heyward walk loaded the bases for Albert Almora. Almora ripped his second double and fourth hit of the game, yanking a double down the third base line that cleared the bases, giving the Cubs a 9-4 lead that put the game out of reach. Two ground balls, a walk, a wild pitch, and a single later and the Cubs were up 11-4 and bringing their magic number down to two.

It was a brutal loss for Pittsburgh, who didn't get a great start from Ivan Nova. Pitching with their best starters injured most of the season, Nova got the nod and was largely ineffective. He allowed five runs, four earned, over 5 innings, with Colby Rasmus' three-run home run the big blow. Nova allowed three home runs in the game.

They were able to score runs early with Gregory Polanco homering, doubling, and scoring three runs. He led an attack that really did a good job against Alec Mills.

The extreme groundballer allowed a bases-loaded walk in the second inning in a weird sequence where he allowed a walk, a ground single, a catcher's interference, and then the walk to Freese that forced home a run. In the third, he allowed another ground single, but also Polanco's home run and another walk that made it 3-2 Pittsburgh.

Not wanting to play around, Chicago's manager bot went to Carl Edwards Jr. early to get out of the third inning without further damage. Edwards did just that and worked into the fifth inning where he left after walking Polanco. Polanco came in to score, but it was still a stabilizing 1.2 for Carl Edwards Jr. The relievers who followed worked 4.2 innings combined without allowing any runs. Those relievers kept swatting down Pittsburgh rallies, including the one in the seventh.

Manager Mike McAvoy stated that he was already looking at the season as a success for staying in the race despite the injuries. Meanwhile, despite a brutal preseason Kris Bryant injury, and brutal luck underperforming their run differential, the Chicago Cubs, barring a miracle, are going to repeat as NL Central Champions.


Questions for the GMs:


For Brandon Hillebrand, how rewarding is it for you to make a tweak to your lineup, like moving Almora to the leadoff spot, and see it work out?

You made a big trade around the trade deadline to acquire A.J. Ramos. He worked 2.1 scoreless innings for you in such a huge game. Were games like today why you traded for him?

It's a basically a formality that you're going to play the Mets now in the NLDS. Your team lost to them in last year's postseason. Any early thoughts in what may be key for you in that series?

For Mike McAvoy, brutal loss. You weren't left with many options, but do you feel like you went with Nova too long? He struggled in the fourth.

You gave Erich Weiss the start over last year's batting champ, Josh Harrison. Why that decision?

Andrew Stevenson had a nice day for you. He walked twice, got on base three times, and stole a bag. How confident are you in the youngster being atop your lineup for a long time?

[brandoncubs]

Q 1) How rewarding is it for you to make a tweak to your lineup, like moving Almora to the leadoff spot, and see it work out?
A 1) It's very rewarding, and i'm so happy Albert is starting to have so much success at the plate given his great glove and leadership role on the club. We've been really struggling to find a consistent leadoff hitter this season, and so I couldn't be happier things are clicking right before the playoffs.

Q 2) You made a big trade around the trade deadline to acquire A.J. Ramos. He worked 2.1 scoreless innings for you in such a huge game. Were games like today why you traded for him?
A 2) This is exactly the role I envisioned him earning on the club. We're fortunate to have a shut-down closer in Davis, so being able to throw another proven closer on whatever fire we have in the game, and being confident in him is a huge plus, and I think will really shine come playoff time.

Q 3) It's a basically a formality that you're going to play the Mets now in the NLDS. Your team lost to them in last year's postseason. Any early thoughts in what may be key for you in that series?
A 3) I think whoever capitalizes the best on timely-hitting will win the series. The Mets have a fantastic pitching staff, and so it'll be crucial for us to manufacture runs, and capitalize on whatever mistakes they make. I'm pretty confident in our pitching staff, so I predict this will be a low-scoring series and hopefully we'll come out on top.

[pittsburghgm]

For Mike McAvoy, brutal loss. You weren't left with many options, but do you feel like you went with Nova too long? He struggled in the fourth.

Ivan pitched his heart out. Had several chances to take a lead in the game. All for not as we lost 2 of 3 with the champs.

You gave Erich Weiss the start over last year's batting champ, Josh Harrison. Why that decision?

It just came down to seeing in what we had with Eric. He's 27 years and he's a fringe player between a start here and there. He played well going 2-4 in the game. Probably be a utility player going into next season.

Andrew Stevenson had a nice day for you. He walked twice, got on base three times, and stole a bag. How confident are you in the youngster being atop your lineup for a long time?

Andrew will be a starter in LF for a long time. He makes great contact with the ball and gets on base. Struggled at times but we saw enough to pencil him in next year as are leadoff hitter. Pirates OF will be good for a very long time.