Post by Commissioner Erick on Mar 31, 2018 23:58:31 GMT -5
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians had an impressive season, but underperforming late in the year against underwhelming teams has relegated them to a Wild Card spot. The Yankees, after struggling early, and losing disappointing series in Toronto, Boston, and Oakland to close the year, came up with a huge win against Houston to make it to the playoffs. The Yankees fell behind 4-0 early and were staring a bases loaded situation in the second inning with their season hanging in the balance. Luis Severino escaped that situation, Ji-man Choi and Wladimir Balentien had massive three-run home runs, and the Yankees rallied to earn a trip to Cleveland.
Yankees hitting versus Indians pitching
The Yankees struggled with contact all season long, holding back their ultimate potential. Nonetheless, they finished second in the league in stolen bases and fifth in home runs so they can scoot around into scoring position once they do get on base, or blast one over the fence to get runs on the board. They're third in strikeouts, but their wOBA is fifth in the league, so generally this is a talented offense.
They have a tough matchup in Carlos Carrasco, one of the league's best arms. Carrasco isn't quite the strikeout artist, but he's become excellent in commanding the strike zone. Among the 78 AL arms that fired 100 innings, Carrasco was second in walk percentage. He was sixth in home run per fly ball rate, so maybe he's a little lucky, but it's a formula that works. Strike out a good number of guys. Don't walk anybody, and manage contact so hitters aren't getting extra base hits. It allowed Carrasco to turn in the second best OPS against in baseball this season.
It's the same formula Carrasco was using on his way to a monster 2017 season before elbow surgery cut his year short. He's 27-5 all time now, and finished second or third in virtually all rate stats that didn't involve strikeouts.
With the Yankees ninth in average, and Carrasco so good at managing contact and not walking anybody, they may have to get their offense from some solo home runs and some small ball. Four Yankees hit 28 or more home runs this season and that doesn't include Choi and Balentien. Choi hit over .300 with 10 home runs in limited time in the big leagues, and Balentien led Japan in home runs last season. That gives the Yankees six guys with the threat to go deep at any time.
Also Dee Gordon stole 59 bases in 69 attempts in an abbreviated campaign after stealing 71 to lead the league last year. Weak contact doesn't matter so much to him as he has the speed to beat out weak ground balls. The Yankees may need to see if his wheels can contribute to help out the offense.
That being said, Carrasco has been dominant against the Yankees this season, including a masterpiece, where he shut down the Yankees with a one-hitter April 17. In total, he's worked 17 innings against the Yankees, pitching two complete games, allowing just seven hits and firing off a 19/1 K/BB ratio. A lot of backups played in the second game so it's not the most representative, but much of the Yankees A-lineup was the one being one-hit.
The saving grace is that Choi and Balentien were not in the lineup for either game, so it will be their first time facing Carrasco. Also, Gordon only played in the second game and had two hits and stole a base.
Cleveland's bullpen is strong but not elite. Heath Hembree and Kyle Crockett fired off ERAs under 4.00 this year, with Perci Garner and David Phelps contributing ERAs right around 4, but in over 100 innings. Brandon Kintzler regressed after a wonderful 2017, hurt by an elevated home rate. He pitched well in the postseason last year, with 4.2 shutout innings and should be better than his numbers this year.
With Cody Allen hurt, only Andrew Miller remains from a stalwart pen. Miller's plate coverage numbers were fantastic last year, but some spotty command led to a crazy high BABIP and elevated home run rates. He's been less gung ho about trying to dominate in the strike zone this year, and while his walk rates have spiked to average levels, he's cut his home runs, and he's fanned 15 batters per nine innings. In fact, 43% of hitters who have faced Miller have gone down on strikes. That number is filthy and it would behoove the Yankees to not be trailing when facing him, especially as a team that isn't great at making contact, and with its best contact hitters being left-handed.
Off the bench, Rob Refsnyder can get a hit, Ronald Torreyes can pick it anywhere on the infield, and Matt Holliday can take one deep. The only Yankee to have real success against Carrasco is also on the bench—backup catcher Pat Cantwell who homered and drove in three against the Indians' ace in their 3-1 win off him this year.
Indians hitting versus Yankees pitching
The Yankees will send Masahiro Tanaka to the mound against Cleveland. His career in high-profile moments has been mixed. He had a poor showing in last year's Wild Card Game, allowing five runs in 5.1 innings to Texas. He did an excellent job in the World Baseball Classic though, working to a 1.72 ERA and 0.77 WHIP, including a Complete Game win over Cuba.
Tanaka has been pretty steady in his two years in the PBA, working with an ERA in the mid to upper 3s, not walking many guys and not giving up many home runs. His BABIP jumped a touch this year but was offset but an increased strikeout rate.
Tanaka was excellent in the second half as he allowed more than three runs only twice in 13 healthy starts after July 9th. The Yankees won seven of the final eight games Tanaka pitched this year. Tanaka also has some solid numbers against Cleveland. He beat them last year allowing three runs, two earned, in 6 innings. This year, he allowed four runs over 7 in a loss. However, Tanaka allowed just three walks to 16 strikeouts in those 13 innings against Cleveland, including just three extra base hits.
That approach may serve him well against a Cleveland offense that is similar to the Yankees. Cleveland is towards the bottom in average and OBP, but second in home runs and fourth in runs. The difference is that the Indians don't have a stolen base threat that the Yankees have and that the Indians have suffered inopportune injuries at the worst times. Two-way superstar Francisco Lindor strained his rotator cuff and will miss the game. A nearly 8-win player, Lindor is a .300 hitter with power, and a Gold Glover on defense. His loss takes a bite out of a stellar defense, and makes Cleveland's offense incredibly reliant on slugging.
Cleveland can slug the ball with anybody of course. Edwin Encarnacion and Giancarlo Stanton each hit 39 home runs this season, Lewis Brinson slugged 32, and J.D. Martinez is a year removed from 32. A couple of solo shots and there are a couple of runs right there. However, someone will need to get on base. Bradley Zimmer has looked excellent in his second taste of the majors. He's more patient, and though he's prone to the strikeout, he has excellent power and a deliberate approach. With Lindor out, how Zimmer fares at the top of the order will be key. Cleveland has some pop from the bottom of its order as Mike Moustakas and Yan Gomes are both low-average, high-power sluggers so Tanaka needs to be on his game against every hitter. Even Lindor's replacement Yu-Cheng Chang, despite being under the Mendoza line in 93 MLB plate appearances, had an .844 OPS in Columbus.
The Yankees bullpen has the best ERA in the AL for the second straight year. They allowed a 3.06 ERA last year, and worked a 3.07 ERA this year. The bullpen is anchored by the esteemed Aroldis Chapman who fires over 100 miles an hour from the left side. He's wilder this year than last, seeing his walk rate more than double. He's also seen his strikeout rate drop from an obscene 48% to 37%. That 37% would still be the fourth best mark for the past two years. As it is, his career 42% mark is tops among AL pitchers.
Hitters can wait out his wildness this year. They've also become increasingly likely to make contact on the ground as his home rate has diminished, while his ground ball rate and BABIP has increased. Still, he's one of the roughest arms to face. He's allowed one run in 6 innings against the Indians this season, striking out nine hitters.
Though he still has a nuclear strikeout rate, Dellin Betances took a step back with his control as well. The difference is he also started allowing home runs, giving him a 4.25 ERA. With shaky command, a patient hitter who can turn around a fastball may be able to do damage against Betances.
The Yankees' middle relievers are the unsung heroes of the team. Tyler Clippard pitched to a 1.64 ERA, missing bats with his changeup and getting hitters to pop up his fastball. Jonathan Holder overperformed his FIP this year by about the same mark he underperformed it last year. No matter what, he's missing bats and keeping runs off the board. Chasen Shreve, like everyone else in New York's pen, strikes batters out, has increased his walk rate, and has a low ERA, 2.43.
The Yankees pen will walk players, but Cleveland is ill-equipped to take advantage of that. However, if the game is close, Cleveland has the lineup to take a fat fastball and deposit it over the fence to change the game.
Season Series
The Indians won the season series 4-3, and lead 8-6 all time.
Cleveland and New York split in April when Yankees bats couldn't touch Cleveland's bullpen to start the series, and then Carrasco pitched his gem in Game 2. Michael Pineda sparkled in Game 3, before Tommy Layne, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman worked 4 scoreless innings to salvage a split of a low-scoring series.
In June, a Francisco Lindor home run and 3 shutout innings from Andrew Miller and Cody Allen captured a game, Pat Cantwell hit a three-run home run off Carrasco to win the middle match, and Cleveland won the season advantage when they hit five home runs off Michael Pineda in a rout.
Most of the series was low scoring with each bullpen turning in excellent performances. Cleveland's went 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA, a .459 OPS against, and 28 strikeouts in 25 innings. New York's went 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA, a .449 OPS against, and 28 strikeouts in 20 innings.
The Yankees only mustered 11 extra base hits the entire series, while Cleveland's 10 home runs were propped up by a breakout performance against a man currently on the disabled list. A lot of the Yankees better hitters didn't play in those games, as Greg Masceri was figuring out whether or not Chris Carter and Matt Holliday had anything left. Meanwhile among healthy Indians, only Mike Moustakas and Edwin Encarnacion hit above .250 against the Yankees among hitters with at least 12 plate appearances. Both those hitters hit .243 on the season so there's not a lot of confidence they can continue that.
Deciding Questions:
In a close game, which offense can touch up the other's bullpen?
Can Cleveland's offense manage against the sturdy but unspectacular Tanaka?
Will Dee Gordon's speed be a factor in generating offense for New York?
Prediction: Tanaka pitches well, but Carrasco and Miller mince up the Yankees' offense, winning a close one, 3-2.
The Cleveland Indians had an impressive season, but underperforming late in the year against underwhelming teams has relegated them to a Wild Card spot. The Yankees, after struggling early, and losing disappointing series in Toronto, Boston, and Oakland to close the year, came up with a huge win against Houston to make it to the playoffs. The Yankees fell behind 4-0 early and were staring a bases loaded situation in the second inning with their season hanging in the balance. Luis Severino escaped that situation, Ji-man Choi and Wladimir Balentien had massive three-run home runs, and the Yankees rallied to earn a trip to Cleveland.
Yankees hitting versus Indians pitching
The Yankees struggled with contact all season long, holding back their ultimate potential. Nonetheless, they finished second in the league in stolen bases and fifth in home runs so they can scoot around into scoring position once they do get on base, or blast one over the fence to get runs on the board. They're third in strikeouts, but their wOBA is fifth in the league, so generally this is a talented offense.
They have a tough matchup in Carlos Carrasco, one of the league's best arms. Carrasco isn't quite the strikeout artist, but he's become excellent in commanding the strike zone. Among the 78 AL arms that fired 100 innings, Carrasco was second in walk percentage. He was sixth in home run per fly ball rate, so maybe he's a little lucky, but it's a formula that works. Strike out a good number of guys. Don't walk anybody, and manage contact so hitters aren't getting extra base hits. It allowed Carrasco to turn in the second best OPS against in baseball this season.
It's the same formula Carrasco was using on his way to a monster 2017 season before elbow surgery cut his year short. He's 27-5 all time now, and finished second or third in virtually all rate stats that didn't involve strikeouts.
With the Yankees ninth in average, and Carrasco so good at managing contact and not walking anybody, they may have to get their offense from some solo home runs and some small ball. Four Yankees hit 28 or more home runs this season and that doesn't include Choi and Balentien. Choi hit over .300 with 10 home runs in limited time in the big leagues, and Balentien led Japan in home runs last season. That gives the Yankees six guys with the threat to go deep at any time.
Also Dee Gordon stole 59 bases in 69 attempts in an abbreviated campaign after stealing 71 to lead the league last year. Weak contact doesn't matter so much to him as he has the speed to beat out weak ground balls. The Yankees may need to see if his wheels can contribute to help out the offense.
That being said, Carrasco has been dominant against the Yankees this season, including a masterpiece, where he shut down the Yankees with a one-hitter April 17. In total, he's worked 17 innings against the Yankees, pitching two complete games, allowing just seven hits and firing off a 19/1 K/BB ratio. A lot of backups played in the second game so it's not the most representative, but much of the Yankees A-lineup was the one being one-hit.
The saving grace is that Choi and Balentien were not in the lineup for either game, so it will be their first time facing Carrasco. Also, Gordon only played in the second game and had two hits and stole a base.
Cleveland's bullpen is strong but not elite. Heath Hembree and Kyle Crockett fired off ERAs under 4.00 this year, with Perci Garner and David Phelps contributing ERAs right around 4, but in over 100 innings. Brandon Kintzler regressed after a wonderful 2017, hurt by an elevated home rate. He pitched well in the postseason last year, with 4.2 shutout innings and should be better than his numbers this year.
With Cody Allen hurt, only Andrew Miller remains from a stalwart pen. Miller's plate coverage numbers were fantastic last year, but some spotty command led to a crazy high BABIP and elevated home run rates. He's been less gung ho about trying to dominate in the strike zone this year, and while his walk rates have spiked to average levels, he's cut his home runs, and he's fanned 15 batters per nine innings. In fact, 43% of hitters who have faced Miller have gone down on strikes. That number is filthy and it would behoove the Yankees to not be trailing when facing him, especially as a team that isn't great at making contact, and with its best contact hitters being left-handed.
Off the bench, Rob Refsnyder can get a hit, Ronald Torreyes can pick it anywhere on the infield, and Matt Holliday can take one deep. The only Yankee to have real success against Carrasco is also on the bench—backup catcher Pat Cantwell who homered and drove in three against the Indians' ace in their 3-1 win off him this year.
Indians hitting versus Yankees pitching
The Yankees will send Masahiro Tanaka to the mound against Cleveland. His career in high-profile moments has been mixed. He had a poor showing in last year's Wild Card Game, allowing five runs in 5.1 innings to Texas. He did an excellent job in the World Baseball Classic though, working to a 1.72 ERA and 0.77 WHIP, including a Complete Game win over Cuba.
Tanaka has been pretty steady in his two years in the PBA, working with an ERA in the mid to upper 3s, not walking many guys and not giving up many home runs. His BABIP jumped a touch this year but was offset but an increased strikeout rate.
Tanaka was excellent in the second half as he allowed more than three runs only twice in 13 healthy starts after July 9th. The Yankees won seven of the final eight games Tanaka pitched this year. Tanaka also has some solid numbers against Cleveland. He beat them last year allowing three runs, two earned, in 6 innings. This year, he allowed four runs over 7 in a loss. However, Tanaka allowed just three walks to 16 strikeouts in those 13 innings against Cleveland, including just three extra base hits.
That approach may serve him well against a Cleveland offense that is similar to the Yankees. Cleveland is towards the bottom in average and OBP, but second in home runs and fourth in runs. The difference is that the Indians don't have a stolen base threat that the Yankees have and that the Indians have suffered inopportune injuries at the worst times. Two-way superstar Francisco Lindor strained his rotator cuff and will miss the game. A nearly 8-win player, Lindor is a .300 hitter with power, and a Gold Glover on defense. His loss takes a bite out of a stellar defense, and makes Cleveland's offense incredibly reliant on slugging.
Cleveland can slug the ball with anybody of course. Edwin Encarnacion and Giancarlo Stanton each hit 39 home runs this season, Lewis Brinson slugged 32, and J.D. Martinez is a year removed from 32. A couple of solo shots and there are a couple of runs right there. However, someone will need to get on base. Bradley Zimmer has looked excellent in his second taste of the majors. He's more patient, and though he's prone to the strikeout, he has excellent power and a deliberate approach. With Lindor out, how Zimmer fares at the top of the order will be key. Cleveland has some pop from the bottom of its order as Mike Moustakas and Yan Gomes are both low-average, high-power sluggers so Tanaka needs to be on his game against every hitter. Even Lindor's replacement Yu-Cheng Chang, despite being under the Mendoza line in 93 MLB plate appearances, had an .844 OPS in Columbus.
The Yankees bullpen has the best ERA in the AL for the second straight year. They allowed a 3.06 ERA last year, and worked a 3.07 ERA this year. The bullpen is anchored by the esteemed Aroldis Chapman who fires over 100 miles an hour from the left side. He's wilder this year than last, seeing his walk rate more than double. He's also seen his strikeout rate drop from an obscene 48% to 37%. That 37% would still be the fourth best mark for the past two years. As it is, his career 42% mark is tops among AL pitchers.
Hitters can wait out his wildness this year. They've also become increasingly likely to make contact on the ground as his home rate has diminished, while his ground ball rate and BABIP has increased. Still, he's one of the roughest arms to face. He's allowed one run in 6 innings against the Indians this season, striking out nine hitters.
Though he still has a nuclear strikeout rate, Dellin Betances took a step back with his control as well. The difference is he also started allowing home runs, giving him a 4.25 ERA. With shaky command, a patient hitter who can turn around a fastball may be able to do damage against Betances.
The Yankees' middle relievers are the unsung heroes of the team. Tyler Clippard pitched to a 1.64 ERA, missing bats with his changeup and getting hitters to pop up his fastball. Jonathan Holder overperformed his FIP this year by about the same mark he underperformed it last year. No matter what, he's missing bats and keeping runs off the board. Chasen Shreve, like everyone else in New York's pen, strikes batters out, has increased his walk rate, and has a low ERA, 2.43.
The Yankees pen will walk players, but Cleveland is ill-equipped to take advantage of that. However, if the game is close, Cleveland has the lineup to take a fat fastball and deposit it over the fence to change the game.
Season Series
The Indians won the season series 4-3, and lead 8-6 all time.
Cleveland and New York split in April when Yankees bats couldn't touch Cleveland's bullpen to start the series, and then Carrasco pitched his gem in Game 2. Michael Pineda sparkled in Game 3, before Tommy Layne, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman worked 4 scoreless innings to salvage a split of a low-scoring series.
In June, a Francisco Lindor home run and 3 shutout innings from Andrew Miller and Cody Allen captured a game, Pat Cantwell hit a three-run home run off Carrasco to win the middle match, and Cleveland won the season advantage when they hit five home runs off Michael Pineda in a rout.
Most of the series was low scoring with each bullpen turning in excellent performances. Cleveland's went 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA, a .459 OPS against, and 28 strikeouts in 25 innings. New York's went 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA, a .449 OPS against, and 28 strikeouts in 20 innings.
The Yankees only mustered 11 extra base hits the entire series, while Cleveland's 10 home runs were propped up by a breakout performance against a man currently on the disabled list. A lot of the Yankees better hitters didn't play in those games, as Greg Masceri was figuring out whether or not Chris Carter and Matt Holliday had anything left. Meanwhile among healthy Indians, only Mike Moustakas and Edwin Encarnacion hit above .250 against the Yankees among hitters with at least 12 plate appearances. Both those hitters hit .243 on the season so there's not a lot of confidence they can continue that.
Deciding Questions:
In a close game, which offense can touch up the other's bullpen?
Can Cleveland's offense manage against the sturdy but unspectacular Tanaka?
Will Dee Gordon's speed be a factor in generating offense for New York?
Prediction: Tanaka pitches well, but Carrasco and Miller mince up the Yankees' offense, winning a close one, 3-2.