Post by Commissioner Erick on Apr 4, 2018 7:13:42 GMT -5
Texas Rangers versus Tampa Bay Rays
A year after a late surge led them to the ALDS, the Texas Rangers added more parts to their team, assembling a 100-win offensive juggernaut that coasted to an AL West title. The Tampa Bay Rays got off to a hot start in 2018, as they did in 2017, but kicked up another gear in July going 21-5. Kevin Kiermaier and Casey Gillaspie's emergence as superstars gave the team enough offense to hang on and win the AL East.
Rays offense versus Rangers pitching
Hurt by its pitcher-friendly park, Tampa Bay doesn't have the most dynamic offense. It ranked 13th in average, and 12th in OBP. Tampa was sixth in home runs, allowing the team to coax a seventh place runs finish. The team was dead last in doubles though, and finished 11th in wOBA.
The lineup is contingent on two stars and two solid support pieces. Kevin Kiermaier was a contender for an MVP before a back injury cut his September short. His ability to hit for power, both home runs and triples, has given the Rays offense some juice. Meanwhile, Casey Gillaspie followed up a surprise 37-home run campaign with a league-leading 42-homer year, cementing him as one of the game's best power hitters. Those two hitters are how the Rays win games—a one-two punch that puts balls in the stands.
Young Jake Bauers was rated the #15 prospect in baseball coming into the year. He had a nice season with a .281/.371/.450 line that should only improve as he develops. He has a dynamic bat and good power that makes him a good option to support Kiermaier and Gillaspie. Finally, in fewer games, Brad Miller upped both his average and power to provide production from the bottom of the Rays lineup.
However, there hasn't been much outside those four.
Adrian Beltre was the big in-season trade acquisition, but after a nice start in Seattle, the power disappeared in Tampa Bay. He slugged only .345 as a member of the Rays. Wilson Ramos also saw his numbers suffer a precipitous drop. A year after hitting 17-home runs and putting up a league-average OPS+, Ramos had a .260 OBP and a .601 OPS. Duffman, Matt Duffy, was fine at the bottom of the order as his patience made him a tough out. Steve Sousa Jr. traded in some of his power for singles and ended up with an equal OPS to 2017, even if much of it was the result of a .361 BABIP.
Mallex Smith got time in left field, but while he can hit and run, he hasn't hit a lick. Justin Williams flashed big power even if he hasn't been able to do much else. Khris Davis fell apart a year after slugging 32 moonshots. He had a .612 OPS, struck out 115 times to 17 walks, and put up -1.4 WAR when you also factor in the lack of speed and defense.
Those underperformances from Beltre, Ramos, Davis, and to an extent Sousa Jr. have made Tampa Bay's offense less potent than most others in the playoffs. It's a testament to their pitching, their defense, and the greatness of Kiermaier and Gillaspie that they won a tough AL East.
That lineup will take its swings against a Texas team that was sixth in preventing runs, which is pretty good considering its park. They'll likely rely on a four-man staff, though only one of their arms can be classified as an ace. That's a bummer considering the high-profile nature of their staff, as they employ Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander, Sonny Gray, and even J.A. Happ.
Yu Darvish, however, has been excellent when healthy the past two seasons. The when healthy caveat limited him to just 40.1 innings this year. He led the AL in WHIP last season, influenced by leading the league in BABIP. From what you can glean in 40.1 innings, the BABIP has returned to more average levels, and his walk rate has jumped, but he's compensated by fanning 11.8 batters per nine. Darvish allowed just one run in 11 postseason innings last year, with a postseason injury keeping him from throwing more.
Cole Hamels will likely slide in second and after a disappointing 2017 he was outstanding this year. He fired off 200 innings again without walking anyone, but he also allowed fewer home runs, struck more guys out, and worked to a better BABIP. Basically he improved across the board, and by the nature of being left-handed, has a nice advantage against the predominantly left-handed Rays, who had the third-worst OPS against lefties in the league.
Both Sonny Gray and J.A. Happ were basically league average pitchers in Texas. That probably deserves a bit more credit than at first blush considering park factors. Both are extreme groundballers, finishing in the top 10 in ground ball percentage among arms that threw over 100 innings. Gray also fired off close to average strikeout rate, which is very good when combined with his groundball numbers. Happ got hurt soon after coming to Texas, so his sample is pretty small. He didn't give up many home runs or strike anyone out in six starts. In Toronto, he also eschewed the true outcomes, not allowing homers, not walking anyone, and not striking out many. That was good for a 3.93 ERA. Each of them profiles effectively against Tampa Bay. While Happ only had an abbreviated 3 inning start against the Rays this season, Gray worked a Complete Game Shutout.
Texas' bullpen ranked fourth in the league in ERA, with much of that success attributed to their bullpen. After a strong 2017, Alex Claudio earned an All-Star nod as a middle reliever, striking out a batter an inning and allowing just four home runs in 89.1 IP. Keona Kela rebounded from a lost 2017 with a 2.39 ERA and 94 whiffs in 64 innings. Sam Dyson, Ian Krol, and Luis Avilian each put up ERA between 3.37 and 3.42.
In fact, closer Jeremy Jeffress had the highest ERA of those main guys, with a 3.58 ERA. He also saved 22 of 28 games, and won nine more, with high walk totals undercutting strong home run and strikeout rates. Matt Bush is the only guy with an ERA above the mid-3s. He also struck out over 11-per-nine for the second straight year and had a 5.04 ERA last season.
If the Rays are putting the ball in play, Texas has the best zone rating in the American League, with Kyle Seager and Billy Hamilton both expected to win Gold Gloves this offseason.
Rangers offense versus Rays pitching
It'll be strength versus strength as the Rangers league-leading offense takes on the second-best run-prevention team in the Rays.
Texas has five hitters who blasted 32 or more home runs this year, with .346 the lowest OBP among that quintet. It's simply a murderers row of terrifying hitters, with Carlos Santana, Rougned Odor, Paul Goldschmidt, Francisco Mejia and Kyle Seager giving pitched balls no quarter. Mejia is the biggest surprise in that group as he led the league in average and slugging in his first full season in the majors. Corey Seager bats sixth, and while he lacks the power of the gentlemen mentioned above, he hit .363 and led the league in doubles in 2017, following that up with merely tying the major league leader in doubles this year.
Ryan O'Hearn can pop a baseball over the fence from the bottom of the order, while Billy Hamilton led the league in steals, just in case the team needed more firepower. Yasiel Puig may miss the series with complications from a concussion suffered earlier in the year. If he can't go, Carlos Gomez or Luis Gonzalez will get the start. Neither hit this year, but each is a strong defender. The player who doesn't start will join Hernan Perez off the bench. Perez can play several positions adequately and was serviceable with Milwaukee last year. He hasn't played enough to make a difference this year. Robinson Chirinos has big pop as a backup catcher should Texas need him.
Texas will face a very talented staff in Tampa Bay's. A year after winning a ring with the Mets, Steven Matz has morphed into an ace. He worked to a 2.65 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, and held lefties to a .561 OPS. He throws in the mid-90's, has a buckling curve that neutralizes lefties, and a changeup to attack righties. He's a young star with championship pedigree.
Youngsters Blake Snell and Brent Honeywell will get starts. Snell is wild and electric, with elevated walk and strikeout rates, a low BABIP against and under a home run per nine innings. He also doesn't go very deep into games as the result of elevated pitch counts. Honeywell is the opposite. A consummate strike-thrower, Honeywell limits walks, has an average strikeout rate, and was able to fire off 213.1 innings this season.
Snell has the upside to dominate a game, while Honeywell has a lower ceiling, but a higher floor. Against a team as potent as Texas, the higher ceiling may be more desirable. Snell struck out a season high 12 batters in 7.1 innings against Texas in August. Meanwhile, Honeywell only went a combined 10 innings against the Rangers this year, allowing eight runs.
A year after a dominant 5.1 WAR season, Chris Archer fell apart. His walks blew up. His strikeouts decreased. Worst of all, his home run nearly doubled. Archer is still a talented pitcher, but he needs to get hitters to keep the ball in the park to be successful. If he can finally curb that, Tampa will have a rotation that can deal with any lineup.
The bullpen was fine but nothing to write home about—except in the ninth. Alex Colome had an unheralded season for the ages. He worked to a 0.90 ERA, saved 47 games in 48 save opportunities, and allowed just 10 total runs all year. It's a smaller workload, but any ERA that's lower than Carlos Martinez forces opponents to take notice. Texas will need to get its runs in before facing Colome.
The rest of Tampa Bay's bullpen is solid and serviceable. The worst arms in terms of performance this year, like Danny Farquhar and Xavier Cedeno, weren't getting the job done this year and were left off the ALDS roster.
Tampa Bay had a strong defense with every place but shortstop grading out at least as average. However, Texas doesn't plan on hitting a lot of ground balls so the Rangers may not even be able to take advantage of that. If they hit the ball in the air, Kevin Kiermaier is an exceptional defender. He had a zone rating of 18.8 in center last year. That number diminished a tick this year, but he made up for it with an increase in outfield assists, from six to 11.
Season Series
The two teams split the season series. Tampa took a series in late August behind two brilliant starts from Blake Snell and Steven Matz sandwiched between a Sonny Gray shutout. In September, a second Matz gem and a Justin Williams ninth inning double off Jeremy Jeffress got Tampa Bay off to a good series start. However, Texas hit four home runs in the middle game, and Matt Bush struck out Matt Duffy with a runner on second to end the eighth inning in a 5-4 loss in the finale.
Deciding Questions
Can Tampa Bay get enough from their supporting cast to outscore Texas?
Can the Rangers offense get to an excellent Rays rotation?
If the games are close in the middle innings, can Tampa Bay's middle relief hold Texas down?
Prediction: The Rangers are more dynamic on offense and have a rotation that can handle the Rays lineup. The Rays have the staff to limit Texas, but it's hard to see them winning four games. Rangers in 5.
Chicago White Sox versus Cleveland Indians
The Chicago White Sox got a historic performance from Carlos Martinez, and explosive seasons from numerous youngsters to arrive ahead of schedule and capture the AL Central. Cleveland wasn't as dominant as it needed to be down the stretch against an easy schedule, but still won 97 games to win the Wild Card. After Carlos Carrasco stabilized after early struggles in the Wild Card Game, Yandy Diaz hit a walk off home run to send Cleveland to Chicago to face the White Sox.
Indians hitting versus White Sox pitching
Everything starts with Carlos Martinez who will make at least two starts this series if not more. Martinez went 22-3 with a 1.27 ERA, staggering numbers from a staggering pitching. Martinez led the league in virtually every single major pitching category, except walks per nine where he finished second. Martinez' ERA was a full-run lower than Steven Matz in second, and his FIP was nearly a full run lower than Carlos Carrasco in second. His 9.1 WAR was more than three wins more than Dallas Keuchel in second.
Despite only throwing three pitches, Martinez touches the upper 90s down in the zone, and he can break off an unhittable curve ball. His changeup is nearly unhittable but hitters can occasionally recognize it and take it low for a ball. He allowed only four runs once this year, and never allowed more than three runs in a game. He's a rock star and the Indians will need to get through him to get to the ALCS.
Well, maybe they won't need to get through him, but it's not like the other White Sox starters are slouches. Carlos Rodon took a leap this year and emerged as a fine sidekick to Martinez with strikeout percentage that trails only Martinez in the American League. Between he and Martinez, Chicago will put tremendous pressure on Cleveland's ability to make any contact this series.
Like Rodon, Eduardo Rodriguez is a 25-year old lefty. Not as prolific at missing bats, he's coming off a shoulder injury and hasn't pitched since August. Except for an aberrant July when he had an ERA of 7.11, he had an ERA under 3 every other month he pitched. If that pitcher shows up, it will give the White Sox three excellent arms to throw at Cleveland.
After starting the year as a reliever, A.J. Cole was stretched out as a starter down the stretch. His strikeout rate is inflated because of his time as a reliever, but he managed to strike out 40 in 37 innings as a starter from September on. The most prolific offense he faced was Baltimore's and they tagged him for five runs on three home runs in 4.1 innings, so how he fares against a talented lineup like Cleveland's is an unknown.
Chicago's bullpen was solid, ranking sixth in ERA, but it's comprised mainly of starters pressed into relief roles. Jordan F. Stephens and Tyler Chatwood had ERA over 5, Wilking Rodriguez had an ERA of 4.66 a year after putting up a 4.68, and Brooks Raley worked only 10 games.
Fortunately the White Sox have a good starting staff, and an excellent late-inning corps. Arodys Vizcaino struck out 66 in 47.2 innings, while closer Dan Jennings had 38 saves and a 2.19 ERA keeping balls on the ground and in the yard. If Chicago only needs to rely on those two, they should be fine.
Chicago's defense wasn't the best, but with David Peralta serving as designated hitter, doesn't have any liabilities on the field. Charlie Tilson in left and Rafael Devers at third may be the best defenders, so Cleveland's right-handed pull hitters are in trouble if they don't pull pitches out of the park.
With Francisco Lindor out for the playoffs, the Indians are very much a lineup that emphasizes power over average. They'll have five hitters hitting .243 or under, but three hitters with at least 30, plus J.D. Martinez who had 37 last year. Giancarlo Stanton has huge power but the White Sox ability to miss bats will limit his effectiveness. Only Edwin Encarnacion and Mike Moustakas have respectable strike out numbers among Cleveland's power hitters, and Moustakas neither draws walks nor has good contact skills. Cleveland still is dangerous, but it will be hard for them to score except on solo home runs.
With Chicago's staff primarily left-handed (or Carlos Martinez, who may as well be left handed with the numbers lefties put up against him), it's important to look at how Cleveland fares against lefties. Lewis Brinson, Yan Gomes, and Encarnacion served as slug-heavy lefty-smashers, with Yandy Diaz smashing a memorable postseason home run off Aroldis Chapman. However, only three players with over 14 at bats against lefties this year have a .300 OBP against them. Two play the same position and are the left-handed Moustakas and the inexperienced Diaz.
Solo home runs will always be in play with Cleveland, but with Rodon's ability to miss bats, and Rodriguez' ability to limit walks, it will be so tough for Cleveland to score.
Stanton, Encarnacion, and Brinson combined for 17 home runs against Chicago this year, and Diaz somehow hit .500. Nobody else had an OPS above .702, showing how weak the Indians have been against Cleveland pitching outside of solo home runs. In fact, though Stanton hit 6 home runs against Chicago, he has only 7 RBIs.
White Sox offense versus Indians pitching
The White Sox were the third best offense in the league, and led the American League in batting average, on-base percentage, and walk rate, and were second in wOBA. There are some superstars in the middle of the lineup, and the rest of the batting order is comprised of tough outs.
After a strong rookie year, Andrew Benintendi took a leap to superstardom, leading the league in hits and RBIs. With 38 doubles, 35 home runs, a .308 average, a .374 OBP, and 16 steals, he was the total package. He led the American League in strikeout percentage allowing him more chances to find the field on base hits. He even upped his game with a .333 average and a 1.016 OPS when the game was close and late. It led to Benintendi producing 5.66 WPA, leading the American League by a wide margin.
Rafael Devers emerged a vocal clubhouse presence. Also, despite a reputation as a pure slugger, Devers didn't put up prodigious home run totals, but hit.285. He struck out fewer times than the league average and took advantage of a good lineup to drive in over 100 runs. Scouts believe the power is still there, so if he can add that element back into his newfound approach, he could be special.
The White Sox bounced around with who their number-two hitter would be. Whether it's David Peralta, Chris Koch, or Brandon Guyer, that player has teamed with Yoan Moncada to provide a lot of walks and a high OBP to set up Devers and Benintendi. Moncada himself walked over 100 times and stole 37 bases. Against any pitcher that's wild, Chicago is wiping you out with that formula of getting on base early and having Benintendi deliver a big hit.
Despite only playing 111 games, David Peralta had a huge year with a .936 OPS, Tim Anderson hit .293 with 16 home runs, and Eric Hosmer had 25 home runs. They give Chicago good potency in the bottom of the order, especially as they're often coming to bat with men on base after the work at the top. Christian Vasquez may be the only easy out in the lineup, but he's one of the best defenders in the game so you live with it.
Cleveland will throw out Carrasco, Corey Kluber, and Tyson Ross. The one thing about Chicago's offense is that it relies heavily on drawing walks. Cleveland's staff features some of the best strike-throwers in baseball. Among AL pitchers who threw 150 innings, Carrasco was first and Kluber was fourth in BB%. Tyson Ross also lowered his walk rate nearly 2.5 percentage points. That means Cleveland has the arms to eliminate the low-hanging fruit.
Kluber gave up a few more home runs than he'd like this year, a reason why his ERA spiked above 4. Nonetheless, he has pinpoint control and outrageous stuff against a team that doesn't hit that many homers. Lefties hit him hard though and Chicago's lineup is stacked with lefties who hit him hard. Kluber was rocked by Chicago twice this year, including allowing nine runs in 4.2 innings back in August. He'll need to find a way to tame Chicago's lefties if Cleveland plans on advancing.
Carrasco led the league in fewest walks per nine and was second in opponents OPS. A team like the Yankees that could take a few pitches over the fence gave Carrasco some trouble in the Wild Card Game. A team like Chicago, that tries to string consecutive runners together may not be as lucky. Carrasco had two excellent home starts against Chicago this year, going 2-0 with only two earned runs allowed in 16 innings. He struggled a touch in Chicago though, going only 5.1 innings, allowing eight hits and four runs in an Indians loss. He also had a fourth start, but was injured early in the game.
Despite cutting his walk rate, Ross' numbers are still close to average. He's also been hit hard by lefties this year. As a result, when he's curtailed the walks, as he did in his first two outings against Chicago, he's done pretty well. Unfortunately when he hasn't, he's gotten rocked, allowing 10 runs in an outing, and getting knocked out after 2 innings in another.
In the pen, Luke Weaver emerged as a weapon in the Wild Card Game, and his stuff may play up in the pen. He gave up a few long balls in four starts against Chicago in the regular season, but his stuff may play up in shorter bursts as he only fanned 17 White Sox in 23 innings.
The rest of the pen was mostly fine against Chicago with some bad batted ball luck hurting Kyle Crockett. For the most part, the pen was able to control Chicago's offense without getting ripped up, and Andrew Miller was great. Miller allowed just one run and no walks in 14 innings. His profile as a dominant left-hander against a majority left-handed offense spells wonders for the team.
Neither Jason Kipnis, Edwin Encarnacion, or Giancarlo Stanton profiles as a plus defender, which is important against a lefty-dominated offense. The White Sox will also run a lot, but Cleveland threw out seven of 19 potential thefts by Chicago this season.
Should Chicago need to pinch hit, former Indian Jay Bruce is another lefty, but one with less contact skills and good power. Jorge Polanco has good doubles pop and a nice average. Gavin Cecchini hit well from the right side in a small sample, and Chris Koch hits a ton of doubles, draws some walks, and never strikes out.
Season Series
Chicago won the season series 11-8, including sweeping all three meetings in September to help them clinch the division and home field in this round.
In May, the teams played several games involving pitchers no longer in the rotation. When Carlos Carrasco got a start, Cleveland won. When Martinez did, Chicago won.
In June, Devers had six RBI and a pair of home runs as Chicago blasted Cleveland's bullpen in a series win, including putting up a seven-run eighth inning in a 10-3 win. Kyle Crockett, David Phelps, and Perci Garner all took it on the chin that series, with the White Sox winning two of three.
The teams played a fun four-game set before the All-Star break. Carlos Martinez didn't allow a run and struck out 12 in 7.2 innings to kick things off, before Wilking Rodriguez imploded in the second game, allowing four consecutive hits in the eighth inning of a 5-5 tie, including J.D. Martinez' go ahead single. Cleveland turned to Andrew Miller and Cody Allen for 3.2 innings of one-run ball in the third game, with Cleveland coming from behind with four in the seventh to win. A Yan Gomes three-run home run was the big blow. With Cleveland's main relievers gassed, Chicago broke open a 5-5 tie in the ninth inning of the finale, with Chris Herrmann and Andrew Benintendi homering in the ninth inning off David Phelps to lead Chicago to a 9-5 win.
The two teams split four blowouts in August as Chicago's lineup mutilated Kluber and Ross in a pair of wins, before getting dominated by Carrasco and Weaver in a pair of losses. This meat the teams tied with eight wins apiece with the division in the balance in September.
The first game of a three-game September set, ineffectiveness and extra innings forced Chicago to go to its bullpen for 8.2 innings, where they allowed only one earned run. Eventually in the 12th inning, the White Sox B-squad of Cecchini, Bruce, and Polanco scratched singles off Brandon Kintzler and walked off for the win. The Chicago pen didn't allow a runner past first base after the seventh inning.
The middle game saw Carlos Martinez work 5.1 shutout innings, which is never a surprise. Drew Storen, Giovanne Soto, and Arodys Vizcaino combined to go 3.2 shutout innings allowing just one hit to give the Sox a series win, and the season-series win, extending a disappointing run for Cleveland's offense. A rainout pushed the date of the finale back, but two Eric Hosmer home runs, a three-run Benintendi shot, and 4.2 innings of two-hit, no-run ball from the pen was an example of Chicago staking their claim to the division right through Cleveland's heart.
Deciding Questions
Can Cleveland's lefty sluggers do some damage against Rodriguez and Rodon?
Can Cleveland work Chicago's staff so they can face the comparably weak White Sox bullpen?
Can Chicago's offense continue to beat up Cleveland's excellent staff? For example, Benintendi is 7-8 with two home runs lifetime off Kluber. Can they maintain that dominance?
Prediction: Cleveland will get to one of Chicago's lefties, and Kluber won't be as awful against Chicago as he's been this year. It still won't be enough. Cleveland won't have an answer for Carlos Martinez, and they won't have a way to retire Benintendi. White Sox in 6.
A year after a late surge led them to the ALDS, the Texas Rangers added more parts to their team, assembling a 100-win offensive juggernaut that coasted to an AL West title. The Tampa Bay Rays got off to a hot start in 2018, as they did in 2017, but kicked up another gear in July going 21-5. Kevin Kiermaier and Casey Gillaspie's emergence as superstars gave the team enough offense to hang on and win the AL East.
Rays offense versus Rangers pitching
Hurt by its pitcher-friendly park, Tampa Bay doesn't have the most dynamic offense. It ranked 13th in average, and 12th in OBP. Tampa was sixth in home runs, allowing the team to coax a seventh place runs finish. The team was dead last in doubles though, and finished 11th in wOBA.
The lineup is contingent on two stars and two solid support pieces. Kevin Kiermaier was a contender for an MVP before a back injury cut his September short. His ability to hit for power, both home runs and triples, has given the Rays offense some juice. Meanwhile, Casey Gillaspie followed up a surprise 37-home run campaign with a league-leading 42-homer year, cementing him as one of the game's best power hitters. Those two hitters are how the Rays win games—a one-two punch that puts balls in the stands.
Young Jake Bauers was rated the #15 prospect in baseball coming into the year. He had a nice season with a .281/.371/.450 line that should only improve as he develops. He has a dynamic bat and good power that makes him a good option to support Kiermaier and Gillaspie. Finally, in fewer games, Brad Miller upped both his average and power to provide production from the bottom of the Rays lineup.
However, there hasn't been much outside those four.
Adrian Beltre was the big in-season trade acquisition, but after a nice start in Seattle, the power disappeared in Tampa Bay. He slugged only .345 as a member of the Rays. Wilson Ramos also saw his numbers suffer a precipitous drop. A year after hitting 17-home runs and putting up a league-average OPS+, Ramos had a .260 OBP and a .601 OPS. Duffman, Matt Duffy, was fine at the bottom of the order as his patience made him a tough out. Steve Sousa Jr. traded in some of his power for singles and ended up with an equal OPS to 2017, even if much of it was the result of a .361 BABIP.
Mallex Smith got time in left field, but while he can hit and run, he hasn't hit a lick. Justin Williams flashed big power even if he hasn't been able to do much else. Khris Davis fell apart a year after slugging 32 moonshots. He had a .612 OPS, struck out 115 times to 17 walks, and put up -1.4 WAR when you also factor in the lack of speed and defense.
Those underperformances from Beltre, Ramos, Davis, and to an extent Sousa Jr. have made Tampa Bay's offense less potent than most others in the playoffs. It's a testament to their pitching, their defense, and the greatness of Kiermaier and Gillaspie that they won a tough AL East.
That lineup will take its swings against a Texas team that was sixth in preventing runs, which is pretty good considering its park. They'll likely rely on a four-man staff, though only one of their arms can be classified as an ace. That's a bummer considering the high-profile nature of their staff, as they employ Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander, Sonny Gray, and even J.A. Happ.
Yu Darvish, however, has been excellent when healthy the past two seasons. The when healthy caveat limited him to just 40.1 innings this year. He led the AL in WHIP last season, influenced by leading the league in BABIP. From what you can glean in 40.1 innings, the BABIP has returned to more average levels, and his walk rate has jumped, but he's compensated by fanning 11.8 batters per nine. Darvish allowed just one run in 11 postseason innings last year, with a postseason injury keeping him from throwing more.
Cole Hamels will likely slide in second and after a disappointing 2017 he was outstanding this year. He fired off 200 innings again without walking anyone, but he also allowed fewer home runs, struck more guys out, and worked to a better BABIP. Basically he improved across the board, and by the nature of being left-handed, has a nice advantage against the predominantly left-handed Rays, who had the third-worst OPS against lefties in the league.
Both Sonny Gray and J.A. Happ were basically league average pitchers in Texas. That probably deserves a bit more credit than at first blush considering park factors. Both are extreme groundballers, finishing in the top 10 in ground ball percentage among arms that threw over 100 innings. Gray also fired off close to average strikeout rate, which is very good when combined with his groundball numbers. Happ got hurt soon after coming to Texas, so his sample is pretty small. He didn't give up many home runs or strike anyone out in six starts. In Toronto, he also eschewed the true outcomes, not allowing homers, not walking anyone, and not striking out many. That was good for a 3.93 ERA. Each of them profiles effectively against Tampa Bay. While Happ only had an abbreviated 3 inning start against the Rays this season, Gray worked a Complete Game Shutout.
Texas' bullpen ranked fourth in the league in ERA, with much of that success attributed to their bullpen. After a strong 2017, Alex Claudio earned an All-Star nod as a middle reliever, striking out a batter an inning and allowing just four home runs in 89.1 IP. Keona Kela rebounded from a lost 2017 with a 2.39 ERA and 94 whiffs in 64 innings. Sam Dyson, Ian Krol, and Luis Avilian each put up ERA between 3.37 and 3.42.
In fact, closer Jeremy Jeffress had the highest ERA of those main guys, with a 3.58 ERA. He also saved 22 of 28 games, and won nine more, with high walk totals undercutting strong home run and strikeout rates. Matt Bush is the only guy with an ERA above the mid-3s. He also struck out over 11-per-nine for the second straight year and had a 5.04 ERA last season.
If the Rays are putting the ball in play, Texas has the best zone rating in the American League, with Kyle Seager and Billy Hamilton both expected to win Gold Gloves this offseason.
Rangers offense versus Rays pitching
It'll be strength versus strength as the Rangers league-leading offense takes on the second-best run-prevention team in the Rays.
Texas has five hitters who blasted 32 or more home runs this year, with .346 the lowest OBP among that quintet. It's simply a murderers row of terrifying hitters, with Carlos Santana, Rougned Odor, Paul Goldschmidt, Francisco Mejia and Kyle Seager giving pitched balls no quarter. Mejia is the biggest surprise in that group as he led the league in average and slugging in his first full season in the majors. Corey Seager bats sixth, and while he lacks the power of the gentlemen mentioned above, he hit .363 and led the league in doubles in 2017, following that up with merely tying the major league leader in doubles this year.
Ryan O'Hearn can pop a baseball over the fence from the bottom of the order, while Billy Hamilton led the league in steals, just in case the team needed more firepower. Yasiel Puig may miss the series with complications from a concussion suffered earlier in the year. If he can't go, Carlos Gomez or Luis Gonzalez will get the start. Neither hit this year, but each is a strong defender. The player who doesn't start will join Hernan Perez off the bench. Perez can play several positions adequately and was serviceable with Milwaukee last year. He hasn't played enough to make a difference this year. Robinson Chirinos has big pop as a backup catcher should Texas need him.
Texas will face a very talented staff in Tampa Bay's. A year after winning a ring with the Mets, Steven Matz has morphed into an ace. He worked to a 2.65 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, and held lefties to a .561 OPS. He throws in the mid-90's, has a buckling curve that neutralizes lefties, and a changeup to attack righties. He's a young star with championship pedigree.
Youngsters Blake Snell and Brent Honeywell will get starts. Snell is wild and electric, with elevated walk and strikeout rates, a low BABIP against and under a home run per nine innings. He also doesn't go very deep into games as the result of elevated pitch counts. Honeywell is the opposite. A consummate strike-thrower, Honeywell limits walks, has an average strikeout rate, and was able to fire off 213.1 innings this season.
Snell has the upside to dominate a game, while Honeywell has a lower ceiling, but a higher floor. Against a team as potent as Texas, the higher ceiling may be more desirable. Snell struck out a season high 12 batters in 7.1 innings against Texas in August. Meanwhile, Honeywell only went a combined 10 innings against the Rangers this year, allowing eight runs.
A year after a dominant 5.1 WAR season, Chris Archer fell apart. His walks blew up. His strikeouts decreased. Worst of all, his home run nearly doubled. Archer is still a talented pitcher, but he needs to get hitters to keep the ball in the park to be successful. If he can finally curb that, Tampa will have a rotation that can deal with any lineup.
The bullpen was fine but nothing to write home about—except in the ninth. Alex Colome had an unheralded season for the ages. He worked to a 0.90 ERA, saved 47 games in 48 save opportunities, and allowed just 10 total runs all year. It's a smaller workload, but any ERA that's lower than Carlos Martinez forces opponents to take notice. Texas will need to get its runs in before facing Colome.
The rest of Tampa Bay's bullpen is solid and serviceable. The worst arms in terms of performance this year, like Danny Farquhar and Xavier Cedeno, weren't getting the job done this year and were left off the ALDS roster.
Tampa Bay had a strong defense with every place but shortstop grading out at least as average. However, Texas doesn't plan on hitting a lot of ground balls so the Rangers may not even be able to take advantage of that. If they hit the ball in the air, Kevin Kiermaier is an exceptional defender. He had a zone rating of 18.8 in center last year. That number diminished a tick this year, but he made up for it with an increase in outfield assists, from six to 11.
Season Series
The two teams split the season series. Tampa took a series in late August behind two brilliant starts from Blake Snell and Steven Matz sandwiched between a Sonny Gray shutout. In September, a second Matz gem and a Justin Williams ninth inning double off Jeremy Jeffress got Tampa Bay off to a good series start. However, Texas hit four home runs in the middle game, and Matt Bush struck out Matt Duffy with a runner on second to end the eighth inning in a 5-4 loss in the finale.
Deciding Questions
Can Tampa Bay get enough from their supporting cast to outscore Texas?
Can the Rangers offense get to an excellent Rays rotation?
If the games are close in the middle innings, can Tampa Bay's middle relief hold Texas down?
Prediction: The Rangers are more dynamic on offense and have a rotation that can handle the Rays lineup. The Rays have the staff to limit Texas, but it's hard to see them winning four games. Rangers in 5.
Chicago White Sox versus Cleveland Indians
The Chicago White Sox got a historic performance from Carlos Martinez, and explosive seasons from numerous youngsters to arrive ahead of schedule and capture the AL Central. Cleveland wasn't as dominant as it needed to be down the stretch against an easy schedule, but still won 97 games to win the Wild Card. After Carlos Carrasco stabilized after early struggles in the Wild Card Game, Yandy Diaz hit a walk off home run to send Cleveland to Chicago to face the White Sox.
Indians hitting versus White Sox pitching
Everything starts with Carlos Martinez who will make at least two starts this series if not more. Martinez went 22-3 with a 1.27 ERA, staggering numbers from a staggering pitching. Martinez led the league in virtually every single major pitching category, except walks per nine where he finished second. Martinez' ERA was a full-run lower than Steven Matz in second, and his FIP was nearly a full run lower than Carlos Carrasco in second. His 9.1 WAR was more than three wins more than Dallas Keuchel in second.
Despite only throwing three pitches, Martinez touches the upper 90s down in the zone, and he can break off an unhittable curve ball. His changeup is nearly unhittable but hitters can occasionally recognize it and take it low for a ball. He allowed only four runs once this year, and never allowed more than three runs in a game. He's a rock star and the Indians will need to get through him to get to the ALCS.
Well, maybe they won't need to get through him, but it's not like the other White Sox starters are slouches. Carlos Rodon took a leap this year and emerged as a fine sidekick to Martinez with strikeout percentage that trails only Martinez in the American League. Between he and Martinez, Chicago will put tremendous pressure on Cleveland's ability to make any contact this series.
Like Rodon, Eduardo Rodriguez is a 25-year old lefty. Not as prolific at missing bats, he's coming off a shoulder injury and hasn't pitched since August. Except for an aberrant July when he had an ERA of 7.11, he had an ERA under 3 every other month he pitched. If that pitcher shows up, it will give the White Sox three excellent arms to throw at Cleveland.
After starting the year as a reliever, A.J. Cole was stretched out as a starter down the stretch. His strikeout rate is inflated because of his time as a reliever, but he managed to strike out 40 in 37 innings as a starter from September on. The most prolific offense he faced was Baltimore's and they tagged him for five runs on three home runs in 4.1 innings, so how he fares against a talented lineup like Cleveland's is an unknown.
Chicago's bullpen was solid, ranking sixth in ERA, but it's comprised mainly of starters pressed into relief roles. Jordan F. Stephens and Tyler Chatwood had ERA over 5, Wilking Rodriguez had an ERA of 4.66 a year after putting up a 4.68, and Brooks Raley worked only 10 games.
Fortunately the White Sox have a good starting staff, and an excellent late-inning corps. Arodys Vizcaino struck out 66 in 47.2 innings, while closer Dan Jennings had 38 saves and a 2.19 ERA keeping balls on the ground and in the yard. If Chicago only needs to rely on those two, they should be fine.
Chicago's defense wasn't the best, but with David Peralta serving as designated hitter, doesn't have any liabilities on the field. Charlie Tilson in left and Rafael Devers at third may be the best defenders, so Cleveland's right-handed pull hitters are in trouble if they don't pull pitches out of the park.
With Francisco Lindor out for the playoffs, the Indians are very much a lineup that emphasizes power over average. They'll have five hitters hitting .243 or under, but three hitters with at least 30, plus J.D. Martinez who had 37 last year. Giancarlo Stanton has huge power but the White Sox ability to miss bats will limit his effectiveness. Only Edwin Encarnacion and Mike Moustakas have respectable strike out numbers among Cleveland's power hitters, and Moustakas neither draws walks nor has good contact skills. Cleveland still is dangerous, but it will be hard for them to score except on solo home runs.
With Chicago's staff primarily left-handed (or Carlos Martinez, who may as well be left handed with the numbers lefties put up against him), it's important to look at how Cleveland fares against lefties. Lewis Brinson, Yan Gomes, and Encarnacion served as slug-heavy lefty-smashers, with Yandy Diaz smashing a memorable postseason home run off Aroldis Chapman. However, only three players with over 14 at bats against lefties this year have a .300 OBP against them. Two play the same position and are the left-handed Moustakas and the inexperienced Diaz.
Solo home runs will always be in play with Cleveland, but with Rodon's ability to miss bats, and Rodriguez' ability to limit walks, it will be so tough for Cleveland to score.
Stanton, Encarnacion, and Brinson combined for 17 home runs against Chicago this year, and Diaz somehow hit .500. Nobody else had an OPS above .702, showing how weak the Indians have been against Cleveland pitching outside of solo home runs. In fact, though Stanton hit 6 home runs against Chicago, he has only 7 RBIs.
White Sox offense versus Indians pitching
The White Sox were the third best offense in the league, and led the American League in batting average, on-base percentage, and walk rate, and were second in wOBA. There are some superstars in the middle of the lineup, and the rest of the batting order is comprised of tough outs.
After a strong rookie year, Andrew Benintendi took a leap to superstardom, leading the league in hits and RBIs. With 38 doubles, 35 home runs, a .308 average, a .374 OBP, and 16 steals, he was the total package. He led the American League in strikeout percentage allowing him more chances to find the field on base hits. He even upped his game with a .333 average and a 1.016 OPS when the game was close and late. It led to Benintendi producing 5.66 WPA, leading the American League by a wide margin.
Rafael Devers emerged a vocal clubhouse presence. Also, despite a reputation as a pure slugger, Devers didn't put up prodigious home run totals, but hit.285. He struck out fewer times than the league average and took advantage of a good lineup to drive in over 100 runs. Scouts believe the power is still there, so if he can add that element back into his newfound approach, he could be special.
The White Sox bounced around with who their number-two hitter would be. Whether it's David Peralta, Chris Koch, or Brandon Guyer, that player has teamed with Yoan Moncada to provide a lot of walks and a high OBP to set up Devers and Benintendi. Moncada himself walked over 100 times and stole 37 bases. Against any pitcher that's wild, Chicago is wiping you out with that formula of getting on base early and having Benintendi deliver a big hit.
Despite only playing 111 games, David Peralta had a huge year with a .936 OPS, Tim Anderson hit .293 with 16 home runs, and Eric Hosmer had 25 home runs. They give Chicago good potency in the bottom of the order, especially as they're often coming to bat with men on base after the work at the top. Christian Vasquez may be the only easy out in the lineup, but he's one of the best defenders in the game so you live with it.
Cleveland will throw out Carrasco, Corey Kluber, and Tyson Ross. The one thing about Chicago's offense is that it relies heavily on drawing walks. Cleveland's staff features some of the best strike-throwers in baseball. Among AL pitchers who threw 150 innings, Carrasco was first and Kluber was fourth in BB%. Tyson Ross also lowered his walk rate nearly 2.5 percentage points. That means Cleveland has the arms to eliminate the low-hanging fruit.
Kluber gave up a few more home runs than he'd like this year, a reason why his ERA spiked above 4. Nonetheless, he has pinpoint control and outrageous stuff against a team that doesn't hit that many homers. Lefties hit him hard though and Chicago's lineup is stacked with lefties who hit him hard. Kluber was rocked by Chicago twice this year, including allowing nine runs in 4.2 innings back in August. He'll need to find a way to tame Chicago's lefties if Cleveland plans on advancing.
Carrasco led the league in fewest walks per nine and was second in opponents OPS. A team like the Yankees that could take a few pitches over the fence gave Carrasco some trouble in the Wild Card Game. A team like Chicago, that tries to string consecutive runners together may not be as lucky. Carrasco had two excellent home starts against Chicago this year, going 2-0 with only two earned runs allowed in 16 innings. He struggled a touch in Chicago though, going only 5.1 innings, allowing eight hits and four runs in an Indians loss. He also had a fourth start, but was injured early in the game.
Despite cutting his walk rate, Ross' numbers are still close to average. He's also been hit hard by lefties this year. As a result, when he's curtailed the walks, as he did in his first two outings against Chicago, he's done pretty well. Unfortunately when he hasn't, he's gotten rocked, allowing 10 runs in an outing, and getting knocked out after 2 innings in another.
In the pen, Luke Weaver emerged as a weapon in the Wild Card Game, and his stuff may play up in the pen. He gave up a few long balls in four starts against Chicago in the regular season, but his stuff may play up in shorter bursts as he only fanned 17 White Sox in 23 innings.
The rest of the pen was mostly fine against Chicago with some bad batted ball luck hurting Kyle Crockett. For the most part, the pen was able to control Chicago's offense without getting ripped up, and Andrew Miller was great. Miller allowed just one run and no walks in 14 innings. His profile as a dominant left-hander against a majority left-handed offense spells wonders for the team.
Neither Jason Kipnis, Edwin Encarnacion, or Giancarlo Stanton profiles as a plus defender, which is important against a lefty-dominated offense. The White Sox will also run a lot, but Cleveland threw out seven of 19 potential thefts by Chicago this season.
Should Chicago need to pinch hit, former Indian Jay Bruce is another lefty, but one with less contact skills and good power. Jorge Polanco has good doubles pop and a nice average. Gavin Cecchini hit well from the right side in a small sample, and Chris Koch hits a ton of doubles, draws some walks, and never strikes out.
Season Series
Chicago won the season series 11-8, including sweeping all three meetings in September to help them clinch the division and home field in this round.
In May, the teams played several games involving pitchers no longer in the rotation. When Carlos Carrasco got a start, Cleveland won. When Martinez did, Chicago won.
In June, Devers had six RBI and a pair of home runs as Chicago blasted Cleveland's bullpen in a series win, including putting up a seven-run eighth inning in a 10-3 win. Kyle Crockett, David Phelps, and Perci Garner all took it on the chin that series, with the White Sox winning two of three.
The teams played a fun four-game set before the All-Star break. Carlos Martinez didn't allow a run and struck out 12 in 7.2 innings to kick things off, before Wilking Rodriguez imploded in the second game, allowing four consecutive hits in the eighth inning of a 5-5 tie, including J.D. Martinez' go ahead single. Cleveland turned to Andrew Miller and Cody Allen for 3.2 innings of one-run ball in the third game, with Cleveland coming from behind with four in the seventh to win. A Yan Gomes three-run home run was the big blow. With Cleveland's main relievers gassed, Chicago broke open a 5-5 tie in the ninth inning of the finale, with Chris Herrmann and Andrew Benintendi homering in the ninth inning off David Phelps to lead Chicago to a 9-5 win.
The two teams split four blowouts in August as Chicago's lineup mutilated Kluber and Ross in a pair of wins, before getting dominated by Carrasco and Weaver in a pair of losses. This meat the teams tied with eight wins apiece with the division in the balance in September.
The first game of a three-game September set, ineffectiveness and extra innings forced Chicago to go to its bullpen for 8.2 innings, where they allowed only one earned run. Eventually in the 12th inning, the White Sox B-squad of Cecchini, Bruce, and Polanco scratched singles off Brandon Kintzler and walked off for the win. The Chicago pen didn't allow a runner past first base after the seventh inning.
The middle game saw Carlos Martinez work 5.1 shutout innings, which is never a surprise. Drew Storen, Giovanne Soto, and Arodys Vizcaino combined to go 3.2 shutout innings allowing just one hit to give the Sox a series win, and the season-series win, extending a disappointing run for Cleveland's offense. A rainout pushed the date of the finale back, but two Eric Hosmer home runs, a three-run Benintendi shot, and 4.2 innings of two-hit, no-run ball from the pen was an example of Chicago staking their claim to the division right through Cleveland's heart.
Deciding Questions
Can Cleveland's lefty sluggers do some damage against Rodriguez and Rodon?
Can Cleveland work Chicago's staff so they can face the comparably weak White Sox bullpen?
Can Chicago's offense continue to beat up Cleveland's excellent staff? For example, Benintendi is 7-8 with two home runs lifetime off Kluber. Can they maintain that dominance?
Prediction: Cleveland will get to one of Chicago's lefties, and Kluber won't be as awful against Chicago as he's been this year. It still won't be enough. Cleveland won't have an answer for Carlos Martinez, and they won't have a way to retire Benintendi. White Sox in 6.