Post by Commissioner Erick on Apr 8, 2018 13:59:32 GMT -5
Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers
The Chicago White Sox survived a shaky performance from their legendary pitcher, and an injury to their best hitter to advance to the ALCS. Meanwhile, Texas finally saw its offense wake up towards the end of the ALDS, beating up Steven Matz in Game 5 and Game 7 to advance to the ALCS.
Rangers offense versus White Sox pitching
Chicago should have their normal four arms going after not having to go seven games in the ALDS. Their ace, Carlos Martinez, struggled against Cleveland, allowing four home runs in two games, and working to an ERA of 5.07. Cleveland has handled Martinez the best this season so it could be a matchup issue. If not, they'll be at a huge disadvantage with Benintendi out for the season. Without their offensive catalyst, Chicago will need a dynamite performance from Martinez to take the series.
Carlos Rodon and Eduardo Rodriguez were able to strike people out, but they also really struggled with home runs in the ALDS. Cleveland has a very right-handed lineup so matchup issues were at play. However, considering Texas is the best home run hitting team in the league and clubbed four in Game 7 in the ALDS, this is a huge problem for Chicago coming in.
A.J. Cole, meanwhile, pitched splendidly against Cleveland as he benefitted from a major platoon advantage. In a small sample, he did very well against lefties too this season as he has a dynamite changeup. Chicago should feel very comfortable with him taking the mound against Texas. He did pitch 3.2 mostly unsuccessful innings out of the bullpen earlier in April, but April was a long time ago and starting is starting. Cole is a flyball pitcher though, and Texas is a bad place for flyball pitchers.
Outside of Wilking Rodriguez, Chicago's bullpen held up well against Cleveland, allowing just three earned runs in 20 innings, good for a 1.35 ERA. Not great during the regular season, all their main guys rated as solid. Well, Dan Jennings was as excellent as his regular season performance, and their middle-inning and setup guys were even better. This could be important, especially if Chicago pulls its starters early.
It took awhile for Texas' offense to show up against Tampa Bay, but it clubbed nine home runs in the series, including four in the deciding Game 7. Texas needed its home runs as they really were forced to rely on their homers. Only three regulars hit above .240 in the series, and two of those three were platooned. Tampa Bay's defense caught everything in play so Texas' muscle allowed the team to overcome that.
The Rangers' offense actually improved over the course of the ALDS as they welcomed back one of their players, Yasiel Puig, who hit two home runs against the Rays. With Puig, Luis Gonzalez, and Ryan O' Hearn, the Rangers can go with a righty who is the best hitter and a good defender, a lefty who plays the best defense and is an excellent runner, or a lefty who has big power and is respectable everywhere else. The speed-and-defense type, Gonzalez, even contributed a home run off Steven Matz.
Chicago's defense is a bit compromised with Benintendi's injury and Brandon Guyer struggling with a groin strain. Charlie Tilson, David Peralta, and a platoon will man the outfield most likely. Peralta did not have a good defensive year this year but was mostly average last year. Jay Bruce and Gavin Cecchini are pretty terrible though, and they'll need to make plays against a team that hits the ball hard. Tilson is a gold-glove caliber outfieder though, and can cover for his teammates. Chicago may be hoping big time for ground balls and strikeouts.
White Sox offense versus Rangers pitching
The specter hanging over Chicago is the hamstring strain Benintendi suffered against Cleveland in the ALDS. The engine of Chicago's offense, its shape is completely different in his absence. There's still good on-base dynamics, but the team doesn't have any way to approximate his combination of hitting with power.
Chris Koch should return to the lineup. He has a good bat and good eye, but little power to speak of. A combination of Jay Bruce, who has power and had a number of big hits for the Mets last postseason, and Gavin Cecchni, who mashes lefties and also came over from the Mets last offseason, should also fill in. These moves will booster the offense as best they can, though they lead to the defense being weakened.
There's also the question of how much they'll help. Aside from a brief stretch in Cleveland earlier this year, and a few select high-leverage moments last postseason, Bruce has been a below-average hitter in his PBA career. Meanwhile, the only high-pressure at bats Cecchini has gotten in his career, were when he went 2-14 for Italy during the World Baseball Classic.
Rafael Devers and Tim Anderson had massive series against Cleveland and will need to carry that forward to give Chicago its best chance. Devers hit .423 versus Texas this year, so all eyes will be on him and his attempts to carry the team's offense.
Chicago also faced nothing but right-handed arms against the Indians. As a very lefty-dominant team, they'll need to get production against same-side pitching when Texas throws out Cole Hamels.
Hamels was named the MVP of the ALDS and he fired off two brilliant starts, winning both his starts with a 2.02 ERA. He'll either pitch three times himself, or J.A. Happ will get a start after being left off of the starting rotation in the ALDS. Fortunately for Chicago, with the exception of switch-hitting Yoan Moncada, a few of the White Sox bats that can swing from the left side were better against lefties than righties, with Devers and David Peralta putting up averages of .331 and .315.
After Hamels, Texas will rely on Sonny Gray and Yu Darvish. Gray was awful in the ALDS against Tampa Bay after a very good regular season against them. He's a groundball specialist who will give up some hits but limit hard contact when he's on his game. Chicago is a very good team in terms of contact so this matchup will be an interesting one.
Darvish was excellent in the ALDS after wildness in Game 1. He may have still been rusty after only making two late-season starts after shoulder woes. If he works the way he did in Games 4 and 7 of the ALDS, then he gives Texas a pitcher who can dominate any lineup, including a weakened White Sox group.
Though Jeremy Jeffress blew a save and Ian Krol gave up a few runs, Texas' bullpen was strong in the ALDS for the most part. There isn't a big sample of Texas relievers facing Chicago in the regular season, but Jeffress gave up five hits and four walks in 2.2 innings. As such, Jeffress has been removed from the closer role and will be a setup reliever to begin the ALDS. Keona Kela will close. He's average in terms of home runs allowed, but struck out 94 in 64 innings. He'll challenge Chicago's contact-oriented bats and see if they can handle Kela's elite stuff.
Texas' defense gets even better with Gonzalez and Puig on the roster. Both grade as better than O' Hearn. Texas' pitching allowed a very low BABIP and OPS against in the ALDS, with elevated walk numbers hurting the staff more than balls in play. That leads to the assumption that Texas is playing excellent defense.
Season Series
Chicago won the season series 4-3.
Texas took a home series in mid-April. Chicago took the opener when Texas starter Eddie Gamboa was left on to allow six runs in the seventh inning of a 6-4 Texas win. However, Texas' bullpen worked 6.2 innings the next day after a Justin Verlander injury and didn't allow an earned run in an 8-6 win. The next day, the Texas bullpen allowed just one run in 7.2 innings after a Cole Hamels injury allowing the Rangers to come back late for a 5-4 win. Jean Segura tied that game in the eighth with his legs, beating out a rundown to go from first to third on a hit, then scoring the tying run on a wild pitch. A Francisco Mejia single plated Carlos Santana in the ninth for a walkoff hit off Dan Otero.
In late September Chicago took three of four from a Texas team with little to play for. Jeremy Jeffress blew a ninth inning lead in the opener, allowing two hits, two walks, inducing a double play, but losing the game on a Jorge Polanco walkoff hit. Anthony Bass and Jeffress teamed up on a six-hit shutout to hand Carlos Martinez his third loss of the year in a crisp 1-0 Texas win. Hosmer and Benintendi combined to go 4-8 with seven RBIs in the third game of the series. In the series rubber match, Kyle Seager knocked home two off Jennings in the top of the night to knot the game up at five. However, Charlie Tilson singled home Christian Vasquez to pin the loss on Alex Claudio in a game decided by the bottom of Chicago's lineup and a lesser-known player in Texas' pen.
Deciding Questions
Can Chicago's defense recover from the downgrade in their outfield?
Will Sonny Gray's groundballing ways get the best of a Chicago team that gets a lot of base hits?
Will Tim Anderson continue his hot postseason to give the White Sox another dangerous bat to throw at Texas?
Prediction: Cole Hamels can't be as good as he was in the ALDS, while Carlos Martinez can't be as bad. That being said, it'll be hard for the White Sox to consistently string together big offensive performances and Texas' lineup is ruthless. Losing Benintendi is just too big a blow to make up. Rangers in 6.
The Chicago White Sox survived a shaky performance from their legendary pitcher, and an injury to their best hitter to advance to the ALCS. Meanwhile, Texas finally saw its offense wake up towards the end of the ALDS, beating up Steven Matz in Game 5 and Game 7 to advance to the ALCS.
Rangers offense versus White Sox pitching
Chicago should have their normal four arms going after not having to go seven games in the ALDS. Their ace, Carlos Martinez, struggled against Cleveland, allowing four home runs in two games, and working to an ERA of 5.07. Cleveland has handled Martinez the best this season so it could be a matchup issue. If not, they'll be at a huge disadvantage with Benintendi out for the season. Without their offensive catalyst, Chicago will need a dynamite performance from Martinez to take the series.
Carlos Rodon and Eduardo Rodriguez were able to strike people out, but they also really struggled with home runs in the ALDS. Cleveland has a very right-handed lineup so matchup issues were at play. However, considering Texas is the best home run hitting team in the league and clubbed four in Game 7 in the ALDS, this is a huge problem for Chicago coming in.
A.J. Cole, meanwhile, pitched splendidly against Cleveland as he benefitted from a major platoon advantage. In a small sample, he did very well against lefties too this season as he has a dynamite changeup. Chicago should feel very comfortable with him taking the mound against Texas. He did pitch 3.2 mostly unsuccessful innings out of the bullpen earlier in April, but April was a long time ago and starting is starting. Cole is a flyball pitcher though, and Texas is a bad place for flyball pitchers.
Outside of Wilking Rodriguez, Chicago's bullpen held up well against Cleveland, allowing just three earned runs in 20 innings, good for a 1.35 ERA. Not great during the regular season, all their main guys rated as solid. Well, Dan Jennings was as excellent as his regular season performance, and their middle-inning and setup guys were even better. This could be important, especially if Chicago pulls its starters early.
It took awhile for Texas' offense to show up against Tampa Bay, but it clubbed nine home runs in the series, including four in the deciding Game 7. Texas needed its home runs as they really were forced to rely on their homers. Only three regulars hit above .240 in the series, and two of those three were platooned. Tampa Bay's defense caught everything in play so Texas' muscle allowed the team to overcome that.
The Rangers' offense actually improved over the course of the ALDS as they welcomed back one of their players, Yasiel Puig, who hit two home runs against the Rays. With Puig, Luis Gonzalez, and Ryan O' Hearn, the Rangers can go with a righty who is the best hitter and a good defender, a lefty who plays the best defense and is an excellent runner, or a lefty who has big power and is respectable everywhere else. The speed-and-defense type, Gonzalez, even contributed a home run off Steven Matz.
Chicago's defense is a bit compromised with Benintendi's injury and Brandon Guyer struggling with a groin strain. Charlie Tilson, David Peralta, and a platoon will man the outfield most likely. Peralta did not have a good defensive year this year but was mostly average last year. Jay Bruce and Gavin Cecchini are pretty terrible though, and they'll need to make plays against a team that hits the ball hard. Tilson is a gold-glove caliber outfieder though, and can cover for his teammates. Chicago may be hoping big time for ground balls and strikeouts.
White Sox offense versus Rangers pitching
The specter hanging over Chicago is the hamstring strain Benintendi suffered against Cleveland in the ALDS. The engine of Chicago's offense, its shape is completely different in his absence. There's still good on-base dynamics, but the team doesn't have any way to approximate his combination of hitting with power.
Chris Koch should return to the lineup. He has a good bat and good eye, but little power to speak of. A combination of Jay Bruce, who has power and had a number of big hits for the Mets last postseason, and Gavin Cecchni, who mashes lefties and also came over from the Mets last offseason, should also fill in. These moves will booster the offense as best they can, though they lead to the defense being weakened.
There's also the question of how much they'll help. Aside from a brief stretch in Cleveland earlier this year, and a few select high-leverage moments last postseason, Bruce has been a below-average hitter in his PBA career. Meanwhile, the only high-pressure at bats Cecchini has gotten in his career, were when he went 2-14 for Italy during the World Baseball Classic.
Rafael Devers and Tim Anderson had massive series against Cleveland and will need to carry that forward to give Chicago its best chance. Devers hit .423 versus Texas this year, so all eyes will be on him and his attempts to carry the team's offense.
Chicago also faced nothing but right-handed arms against the Indians. As a very lefty-dominant team, they'll need to get production against same-side pitching when Texas throws out Cole Hamels.
Hamels was named the MVP of the ALDS and he fired off two brilliant starts, winning both his starts with a 2.02 ERA. He'll either pitch three times himself, or J.A. Happ will get a start after being left off of the starting rotation in the ALDS. Fortunately for Chicago, with the exception of switch-hitting Yoan Moncada, a few of the White Sox bats that can swing from the left side were better against lefties than righties, with Devers and David Peralta putting up averages of .331 and .315.
After Hamels, Texas will rely on Sonny Gray and Yu Darvish. Gray was awful in the ALDS against Tampa Bay after a very good regular season against them. He's a groundball specialist who will give up some hits but limit hard contact when he's on his game. Chicago is a very good team in terms of contact so this matchup will be an interesting one.
Darvish was excellent in the ALDS after wildness in Game 1. He may have still been rusty after only making two late-season starts after shoulder woes. If he works the way he did in Games 4 and 7 of the ALDS, then he gives Texas a pitcher who can dominate any lineup, including a weakened White Sox group.
Though Jeremy Jeffress blew a save and Ian Krol gave up a few runs, Texas' bullpen was strong in the ALDS for the most part. There isn't a big sample of Texas relievers facing Chicago in the regular season, but Jeffress gave up five hits and four walks in 2.2 innings. As such, Jeffress has been removed from the closer role and will be a setup reliever to begin the ALDS. Keona Kela will close. He's average in terms of home runs allowed, but struck out 94 in 64 innings. He'll challenge Chicago's contact-oriented bats and see if they can handle Kela's elite stuff.
Texas' defense gets even better with Gonzalez and Puig on the roster. Both grade as better than O' Hearn. Texas' pitching allowed a very low BABIP and OPS against in the ALDS, with elevated walk numbers hurting the staff more than balls in play. That leads to the assumption that Texas is playing excellent defense.
Season Series
Chicago won the season series 4-3.
Texas took a home series in mid-April. Chicago took the opener when Texas starter Eddie Gamboa was left on to allow six runs in the seventh inning of a 6-4 Texas win. However, Texas' bullpen worked 6.2 innings the next day after a Justin Verlander injury and didn't allow an earned run in an 8-6 win. The next day, the Texas bullpen allowed just one run in 7.2 innings after a Cole Hamels injury allowing the Rangers to come back late for a 5-4 win. Jean Segura tied that game in the eighth with his legs, beating out a rundown to go from first to third on a hit, then scoring the tying run on a wild pitch. A Francisco Mejia single plated Carlos Santana in the ninth for a walkoff hit off Dan Otero.
In late September Chicago took three of four from a Texas team with little to play for. Jeremy Jeffress blew a ninth inning lead in the opener, allowing two hits, two walks, inducing a double play, but losing the game on a Jorge Polanco walkoff hit. Anthony Bass and Jeffress teamed up on a six-hit shutout to hand Carlos Martinez his third loss of the year in a crisp 1-0 Texas win. Hosmer and Benintendi combined to go 4-8 with seven RBIs in the third game of the series. In the series rubber match, Kyle Seager knocked home two off Jennings in the top of the night to knot the game up at five. However, Charlie Tilson singled home Christian Vasquez to pin the loss on Alex Claudio in a game decided by the bottom of Chicago's lineup and a lesser-known player in Texas' pen.
Deciding Questions
Can Chicago's defense recover from the downgrade in their outfield?
Will Sonny Gray's groundballing ways get the best of a Chicago team that gets a lot of base hits?
Will Tim Anderson continue his hot postseason to give the White Sox another dangerous bat to throw at Texas?
Prediction: Cole Hamels can't be as good as he was in the ALDS, while Carlos Martinez can't be as bad. That being said, it'll be hard for the White Sox to consistently string together big offensive performances and Texas' lineup is ruthless. Losing Benintendi is just too big a blow to make up. Rangers in 6.