2018 Canadian Rookie League Stars and Disappointments
Apr 22, 2018 12:43:06 GMT -5
rutledge likes this
Post by Commissioner Erick on Apr 22, 2018 12:43:06 GMT -5
One of my favorite things to do is to track the development of players in my pet league, The Canadian Rookie League. Here are the league leaders and disappointing prospects in the CRL.
C Yoel Gonzalez—Pirates: A repeat performer at the Rookie League level, the 22-year old Gonzalez saw a complete turnaround in his second attempt at the level. After posting a .574 OPS+ as a 21-year old in 2017, Gonzalez matured into his body a little bit more in 2018. That allowed him to bat a league-leading .381. His 1.091 OPS was fourth in the league and he was a 2018 All Star.
Gonzales is a strong defender and has already been pushed up to A-Ball. His scouting reports don't suggest much of a big league player here, but his defense combined with his ability to make adjustments should have him play a role as dependable organizational depth for a few years.
3B Bruce Steele—Orioles: Steele was popped in the 12th Round of the 2017 draft, and needed time to adjust to professional ball. He played in the Canadian League last season, but only hit for a .539 OPS+ in 88 plate appearances. Steele adjusted to professional training regimens and exploded this past season, clubbing 30 home runs in just 74 games, a league record. Steele's gains were across the board though. He hit .310. He stole eight bases. He also won the Gold Glove for third basemen on the way to capturing the Canadian League MVP.
Scouting reports still vary on Steele's future, but unlike when he was drafted, he's now a player with a decent chance at making the majors. He's an intriguing mix of defense and power at the position with questions about contact and plate disciple as limiting factors. He should make a jump to full season ball next year.
1B Dairel Gomez—Cardinals: Continuing the obvious trend, Dariel Gomez is another example of a player who had a relatively unsuccessful 2017 in the CRL and repeated the level to have a dominant 2018. Gomez had a league average .696 OPS in 2017, which isn't great for a first baseman. However, with a .323 average and 21 home runs, he was able to lead the league with 67 RBIs for Saint John.
Gomez doesn't profile as a big leaguer, and at 22 in the very low minors, doesn't have much time to develop either. The Cardinals have called him up to play in Short Season A-Ball, but it's hard to imagine him getting far beyond there. His 97 RBIs are second most in league history, which would be a nice accomplishment to be proud of should he never do much more in his career.
CF Jonathan Machado—Cardinals: Machado, like most people on this list, played in the Canadian League last season. Machado, unlike most people on this list, excelled in 2017, putting up 4.5 WAR, and finishing second in hits and steals last year. He was only 18 year old, meaning he was repeating as a teenager, though it was clear he was too advanced for the league. Machado increased all his stats in his return year, leading the league in steals with 37, in hits with 108, and he added his second CRL Gold Glove. His WAR only dropped because the league offensive environment increased.
Machado's speed and defense will carry him to the upper minors, and from there, baseball will see if he can hit well enough to go further. There's no challenge for him in Canada anymore, and other Canadians would be ecstatic if the Cuban would play for his home country or in the United States instead.
C Chris O'Brien—Orioles: Chris O'Brien led the league in most rate stats, which makes sense given that he's 29. He hit .371, slugged .786, and produced a 1.249 OPS. He walked more than he struck out and was an absolute terror.
Organizational depth is important, but the switch-hitting catcher has the skills to produce in the mid-minors let alone Rookie Ball. That being said, he's a true leader in the cubhouse and will likely go wherever an Orioles affiliate needs a veteran presence in the locker room.
CF Willis Figueroa—Red Sox: An excellent defensive player, Figueroa bounced between rookie ball and short season ball in 2017, doing the same in 2018. Considering the organizational chaos the Red Sox faced last season, it's not as damning as some players repeating the level. Figueroa stole 15 bases at an inefficient clip, but had the highest defensive rating in the league.
Figueroa doesn't have much talent outside of his speed and defense, so despite being 23, he's less advanced than other players his age. Short Season ball may be where he belongs right now, and maybe A-ball if they can use a defender and runner.
SP Adam Seibert—Rockies: A late 2017 draft pick, Seibert pitched in Grand Junction most of 2017, getting a late call to St. Lawrence to end the year. He pitched really well, leading the league with a 2.63 ERA, striking out over a batter an inning, and allowing just five home runs on the year.
Seibert likely doesn't have a big league career ahead of him, and likely doesn't have a career in the upper minors either. Nonetheless, he's pitched well in two seasons of rookie ball and will get a chance at A-ball next year to see if his intelligence continues to allow him to work a step ahead of his talent.
RP Jose Geronimo—Cardinals: Geronimo followed up an eight win, 2.72 ERA, 2.2 WAR 2017 with a nearly identical nine win, 2.71, 2.4 WAR 2018. Those nine wins and that 2.4 WAR led the league as Geronimo has dominated Canada two years in a row.
Geronimo pitched 2018 as a 20 year old, but after two dominant years it should be time for him to work his way up. His secondary pitches outclass most of the teenaged competition he faces. Likely not a major leaguer, Geronimo may have enough stuff to carry out a career overseas someday.
SP Luke Lamphere—Rangers: Lamphere was a reliever in Short-A ball last season, but was sent down to work as a starter. Not only did Lamphere get his reps in, he led the league in innings. Those innings weren't stupendous, but Lamphere still put up a strong 3.87 campaign.
There's enough command to imagine an upper minors arm, but Lamphere likely doesn't have the fastball needed to reach the majors. He'll be 23 next year and old for the level, so it may be time to see if he can succeed at least in Short-A ball next year—as a starter.
SP Bradley Inglis—Tigers: Inglis was signed to the rookie league as a minor league free agent out of Australia in 2017. Inglis had a good 2017 as a reliever and was moved to the starting rotation in 2018 and led the league in strikeouts with 108. He also had just 16 walks as he really dominated the strike zone. His only blemish was allowing 14 home runs.
Scouts don't look at Inglis as a guy who can thrive in the upper minors, at least as a starter. He has a mid-90s fastball, and a really good curveball that dominates the low minors. However, he may not have a good enough changeup to thrive as a starter. Inglis is only 20 and he's shown he can dominate the Canadian League, but expect him to be a slow mover as he tries to develop that change.
SP: Jonas de la Cruz—Phillies: With a 3.22 FIP, de la Cruz led the league in that category. He had an okay walk rate, but he struck out 89 in 70.2 innings and only allowed five home runs, which fed into the league-best FIP. He worked to a good 3.97 ERA and a 2.1 WAR.
De la Cruz had similar numbers as a reliever in the Dominican Rookie League in 2017, so he's been steadily growing the last two years. There's some debate over to his ultimate future, though OSA predicts him to at least work into the upper minors. How far he moves up will ultimately be determined by his fastball control. He works in the low 90s, but doesn't control the fastball well, leading to a slightly elevated walk rate. His changeup is one of the best in the league and impossible for teenaged hitters to adjust to. As he advances though, the changeup won't be able to cover for the lack of fastball command.
RP Dariel Delgado—Orioles: Delgado struggled as a 24-year old middle reliever in the league in 2017, but dominated as a 25-year old closer in 2018. He struck out 55 in 41 innings, allowed just two home runs, and led the league with 30 saves.
Delgado doesn't have the juice to work in the upper minors, which is why he's a 25-year old in the rookie league. He should probably be in High-A, but his ultimate destination may be dominating the level of his own country, the Cuban League.
CF Jo Adell—Rangers: Adell was just 18-years old when the 2017 second rounder debuted for Texas in the Arizona league with reasonable success. After blowing the league up repeating it this year, he was promoted to Canada and really struggled. Adell in 32 games hit .173 with 39 strikeouts. He did club six home runs and he played good defense, but one would have liked to see better bat control in the level.
Adell's future is wide open as he can pitch as well as well as hit. He's still learning how to take the best routes in center field to unlock his superior speed. His swing is geared towards driving the ball, but he still has trouble making good contact. Scouts see the speed, the defense, and the power. It may be awhile until he develops the bat skills to unlock the tools
RP Jack Leftwich—Tigers: Taken in the fourth round in 2017, Leftwich pitched reasonably well at the level in 2017, but both pitched worse in 2018 and saw more of his appearances come in relief. He did pitch as a 19-year old, so there's no rush, and he did strike out over a batter an inning. However, the walks are concerning, and his walks per nine jumped from 2.4 to 3.9.
Scouts are wildly divergent on Leftwich's future, with some projecting stardom and some seeing a Double-A reliever. He's a hard thrower with good movement from a two-seamer. The key will be a changeup he has absolutely no feel for right now. If it comes around, Leftwich can be special. If not, he's just a mid-minors relief arm.
C M.J. Melendez—Padres: Melendez was a 2018 second rounder taken 39th overall by San Diego. He started off his career in the Yukon and struggled in his first taste of professional ball. He hit .193 with a .553 OPS, and put up a negative WAR. He hit only four home runs in a ballpark conducive to power.
Scouts look at Melendez as a very raw hitter who may have some patience and power when he develops. His intangibles are also high, though his intangibles are way ahead of his present skill level. Expect him to be a slow mover through the Padres organization.
RP Ethan Hankins—Padres: Hankins was popped in the fifth round of the 2018 draft and fell apart in Yukon. On the good side, he struck out a batter an inning. However, he walked 37 batters in 57.2 innings and pitched to a 6.87 ERA.
Hankins throws very hard, which was the allure in drafting him in the fifth round, but his mechanics have been a disaster. As such, the scouting community doesn't see him ever gaining the control needed to pitch above the low minors. It's shame too, because with three quality pitches and a 98-mph fastball, he could have been a talented prospect in a system that needs some.
C Yoel Gonzalez—Pirates: A repeat performer at the Rookie League level, the 22-year old Gonzalez saw a complete turnaround in his second attempt at the level. After posting a .574 OPS+ as a 21-year old in 2017, Gonzalez matured into his body a little bit more in 2018. That allowed him to bat a league-leading .381. His 1.091 OPS was fourth in the league and he was a 2018 All Star.
Gonzales is a strong defender and has already been pushed up to A-Ball. His scouting reports don't suggest much of a big league player here, but his defense combined with his ability to make adjustments should have him play a role as dependable organizational depth for a few years.
3B Bruce Steele—Orioles: Steele was popped in the 12th Round of the 2017 draft, and needed time to adjust to professional ball. He played in the Canadian League last season, but only hit for a .539 OPS+ in 88 plate appearances. Steele adjusted to professional training regimens and exploded this past season, clubbing 30 home runs in just 74 games, a league record. Steele's gains were across the board though. He hit .310. He stole eight bases. He also won the Gold Glove for third basemen on the way to capturing the Canadian League MVP.
Scouting reports still vary on Steele's future, but unlike when he was drafted, he's now a player with a decent chance at making the majors. He's an intriguing mix of defense and power at the position with questions about contact and plate disciple as limiting factors. He should make a jump to full season ball next year.
1B Dairel Gomez—Cardinals: Continuing the obvious trend, Dariel Gomez is another example of a player who had a relatively unsuccessful 2017 in the CRL and repeated the level to have a dominant 2018. Gomez had a league average .696 OPS in 2017, which isn't great for a first baseman. However, with a .323 average and 21 home runs, he was able to lead the league with 67 RBIs for Saint John.
Gomez doesn't profile as a big leaguer, and at 22 in the very low minors, doesn't have much time to develop either. The Cardinals have called him up to play in Short Season A-Ball, but it's hard to imagine him getting far beyond there. His 97 RBIs are second most in league history, which would be a nice accomplishment to be proud of should he never do much more in his career.
CF Jonathan Machado—Cardinals: Machado, like most people on this list, played in the Canadian League last season. Machado, unlike most people on this list, excelled in 2017, putting up 4.5 WAR, and finishing second in hits and steals last year. He was only 18 year old, meaning he was repeating as a teenager, though it was clear he was too advanced for the league. Machado increased all his stats in his return year, leading the league in steals with 37, in hits with 108, and he added his second CRL Gold Glove. His WAR only dropped because the league offensive environment increased.
Machado's speed and defense will carry him to the upper minors, and from there, baseball will see if he can hit well enough to go further. There's no challenge for him in Canada anymore, and other Canadians would be ecstatic if the Cuban would play for his home country or in the United States instead.
C Chris O'Brien—Orioles: Chris O'Brien led the league in most rate stats, which makes sense given that he's 29. He hit .371, slugged .786, and produced a 1.249 OPS. He walked more than he struck out and was an absolute terror.
Organizational depth is important, but the switch-hitting catcher has the skills to produce in the mid-minors let alone Rookie Ball. That being said, he's a true leader in the cubhouse and will likely go wherever an Orioles affiliate needs a veteran presence in the locker room.
CF Willis Figueroa—Red Sox: An excellent defensive player, Figueroa bounced between rookie ball and short season ball in 2017, doing the same in 2018. Considering the organizational chaos the Red Sox faced last season, it's not as damning as some players repeating the level. Figueroa stole 15 bases at an inefficient clip, but had the highest defensive rating in the league.
Figueroa doesn't have much talent outside of his speed and defense, so despite being 23, he's less advanced than other players his age. Short Season ball may be where he belongs right now, and maybe A-ball if they can use a defender and runner.
SP Adam Seibert—Rockies: A late 2017 draft pick, Seibert pitched in Grand Junction most of 2017, getting a late call to St. Lawrence to end the year. He pitched really well, leading the league with a 2.63 ERA, striking out over a batter an inning, and allowing just five home runs on the year.
Seibert likely doesn't have a big league career ahead of him, and likely doesn't have a career in the upper minors either. Nonetheless, he's pitched well in two seasons of rookie ball and will get a chance at A-ball next year to see if his intelligence continues to allow him to work a step ahead of his talent.
RP Jose Geronimo—Cardinals: Geronimo followed up an eight win, 2.72 ERA, 2.2 WAR 2017 with a nearly identical nine win, 2.71, 2.4 WAR 2018. Those nine wins and that 2.4 WAR led the league as Geronimo has dominated Canada two years in a row.
Geronimo pitched 2018 as a 20 year old, but after two dominant years it should be time for him to work his way up. His secondary pitches outclass most of the teenaged competition he faces. Likely not a major leaguer, Geronimo may have enough stuff to carry out a career overseas someday.
SP Luke Lamphere—Rangers: Lamphere was a reliever in Short-A ball last season, but was sent down to work as a starter. Not only did Lamphere get his reps in, he led the league in innings. Those innings weren't stupendous, but Lamphere still put up a strong 3.87 campaign.
There's enough command to imagine an upper minors arm, but Lamphere likely doesn't have the fastball needed to reach the majors. He'll be 23 next year and old for the level, so it may be time to see if he can succeed at least in Short-A ball next year—as a starter.
SP Bradley Inglis—Tigers: Inglis was signed to the rookie league as a minor league free agent out of Australia in 2017. Inglis had a good 2017 as a reliever and was moved to the starting rotation in 2018 and led the league in strikeouts with 108. He also had just 16 walks as he really dominated the strike zone. His only blemish was allowing 14 home runs.
Scouts don't look at Inglis as a guy who can thrive in the upper minors, at least as a starter. He has a mid-90s fastball, and a really good curveball that dominates the low minors. However, he may not have a good enough changeup to thrive as a starter. Inglis is only 20 and he's shown he can dominate the Canadian League, but expect him to be a slow mover as he tries to develop that change.
SP: Jonas de la Cruz—Phillies: With a 3.22 FIP, de la Cruz led the league in that category. He had an okay walk rate, but he struck out 89 in 70.2 innings and only allowed five home runs, which fed into the league-best FIP. He worked to a good 3.97 ERA and a 2.1 WAR.
De la Cruz had similar numbers as a reliever in the Dominican Rookie League in 2017, so he's been steadily growing the last two years. There's some debate over to his ultimate future, though OSA predicts him to at least work into the upper minors. How far he moves up will ultimately be determined by his fastball control. He works in the low 90s, but doesn't control the fastball well, leading to a slightly elevated walk rate. His changeup is one of the best in the league and impossible for teenaged hitters to adjust to. As he advances though, the changeup won't be able to cover for the lack of fastball command.
RP Dariel Delgado—Orioles: Delgado struggled as a 24-year old middle reliever in the league in 2017, but dominated as a 25-year old closer in 2018. He struck out 55 in 41 innings, allowed just two home runs, and led the league with 30 saves.
Delgado doesn't have the juice to work in the upper minors, which is why he's a 25-year old in the rookie league. He should probably be in High-A, but his ultimate destination may be dominating the level of his own country, the Cuban League.
CF Jo Adell—Rangers: Adell was just 18-years old when the 2017 second rounder debuted for Texas in the Arizona league with reasonable success. After blowing the league up repeating it this year, he was promoted to Canada and really struggled. Adell in 32 games hit .173 with 39 strikeouts. He did club six home runs and he played good defense, but one would have liked to see better bat control in the level.
Adell's future is wide open as he can pitch as well as well as hit. He's still learning how to take the best routes in center field to unlock his superior speed. His swing is geared towards driving the ball, but he still has trouble making good contact. Scouts see the speed, the defense, and the power. It may be awhile until he develops the bat skills to unlock the tools
RP Jack Leftwich—Tigers: Taken in the fourth round in 2017, Leftwich pitched reasonably well at the level in 2017, but both pitched worse in 2018 and saw more of his appearances come in relief. He did pitch as a 19-year old, so there's no rush, and he did strike out over a batter an inning. However, the walks are concerning, and his walks per nine jumped from 2.4 to 3.9.
Scouts are wildly divergent on Leftwich's future, with some projecting stardom and some seeing a Double-A reliever. He's a hard thrower with good movement from a two-seamer. The key will be a changeup he has absolutely no feel for right now. If it comes around, Leftwich can be special. If not, he's just a mid-minors relief arm.
C M.J. Melendez—Padres: Melendez was a 2018 second rounder taken 39th overall by San Diego. He started off his career in the Yukon and struggled in his first taste of professional ball. He hit .193 with a .553 OPS, and put up a negative WAR. He hit only four home runs in a ballpark conducive to power.
Scouts look at Melendez as a very raw hitter who may have some patience and power when he develops. His intangibles are also high, though his intangibles are way ahead of his present skill level. Expect him to be a slow mover through the Padres organization.
RP Ethan Hankins—Padres: Hankins was popped in the fifth round of the 2018 draft and fell apart in Yukon. On the good side, he struck out a batter an inning. However, he walked 37 batters in 57.2 innings and pitched to a 6.87 ERA.
Hankins throws very hard, which was the allure in drafting him in the fifth round, but his mechanics have been a disaster. As such, the scouting community doesn't see him ever gaining the control needed to pitch above the low minors. It's shame too, because with three quality pitches and a 98-mph fastball, he could have been a talented prospect in a system that needs some.