Game of the Week: May 11: CHC @COL

[Commissioner Erick]

Chicago Cubs (26-5) @ Colorado Rockies (15-17)


CHC: Jake Arrieta (3-1, 2.39)
COL: Chi Chi Gonzalez (1-2, 10.67)


The Chicago Cubs couldn't knock around Chi Chi Gonzalez in last season's NLDS, a key factor in why the Cubs couldn't advance in last season's playoffs.

They've been on a revenge tour this season and have the opportunity for payback tonight.

Looking for blood, The Chicago Cubs take their 26-5 band of superstars into Colorado against Chi Chi Gonzalez and the Colorado Rockies for the Game of the Week.

Last year's postseason was an abject disappointment for the Cubs. Despite a stacked roster than won 110 games, the Cubs fizzled out in six games against the Rockies in last year's NLDS. The worst offensive performer, Josh Donaldson, was allowed to walk, and the Cubs banked that their staff would pitch better the next time they got the opportunity. Chicago acquired Andrew McCutchen to replace Donaldson and bet that the same team that won 110 games last year would return ready to rock in 2020.

We won't know how the Cubs will do in the postseason until they get there, but they've positioned themselves as far-and-away the most intimidating team in the NL. Stacked with superstar talent throughout their roster, the Cubs are on pace to win 138 games. They're laying waste to the PBA and now have the chance to get a measure of revenge on a struggling Rockies team that knocked Chicago out of the playoffs in 2019.

Chi Chi Gonzalez pitched the clincher for Colorado last year, going 7 innings and allowing two runs that time. This season, Gonzalez has been hit hard. He's 1-2 with a 10.67 ERA. Formerly an extreme groundball pitcher, Gonzalez' percentages have dropped from over 60% earlier in his career to just over 50% this season. His home run ratio has risen, and he only has 15 strikeouts in 27 innings. The worst part is that his control has completely deserted him. He's walking 13% of batters, and striking out just over 10%. It's a terrible combination, showing off why he's been among the worst pitchers in baseball this season.

Colorado's offense has suffered some poor performances from its infielders. Sergio Alcantara was rough last year and is rough this year, but Trevor Story brought 28 home runs last year from the middle infield, while Dee Gordon had a .333 on-base percentage and speed. This year, Trevor Story is hitting .149. He hasn't a single stolen base after 16 last year, and his defense has been deplorable. Travis Demeritte has a .530 OPS, 42 strikeouts, and a -0.4 WAR.

The rest of Colorado's offense has been strong and has led the team to third place in runs, but with Coors Field's run environment and the fact that they've lost several starting pitchers from last season, they often need to be better than that. It's how a team has four players hitting over .329, yet the team is below .500.

Fortunately, if the offense can produce and if Gonzalez can keep things close, Colorado has produced an excellent bullpen. After two seasons with an ERA over .500, Greg Holland is pitching like it's 2017. He has a 2.79 ERA, hasn't allowed a home run, has curbed his walk rate from 14% a year ago to 11%, and has seen his strikeout rate spike to 35%, a career-high.

Sam Moll has been one of the game's best relief pitchers the past three years, and this year has been no exception. He's initiating more contact than last year, but it's been weak contact, and his ERA has dropped from 2.76 to 1.06. He's third in the NL in Shutdowns, a stat that essentially determines whether a team's WPA increased with a reliever's performance in a close game. Moll's been doing this since he joined the league and he now has a 1.91 ERA over his career.

After a disastrous start to 2019, Ottavino's steadily pitched better and better and hasn't allowed an earned run in 10.1 innings. Going back to last year, he's allowed just four earned runs in 26.2 innings, a 1.37 ERA. He's been joined in the pen by Xavier Cedeno who had a strong run in Tampa last year. Striking out a batter an inning, Cedeno has a 1.50 ERA in the early going. Importantly, he's been great against lefties and righties alike. Lefties are hitting just .200 off him, and while righties are batting .223, they have just one extra base hit in 60 plate appearances.

Colorado may need that bullpen to shine to overcome the Cubs' onslaught of spectacular hitters


Questions for the GMs:


For Brandon Hillebrand, last season was a painful way to exit the postseason. How personally are you looking at this opportunity against Gonzalez and the Rockies?

How has your team so successfully weathered the loss of Wade Davis thus far?

Freddie Freeman got off to such a slow start last year, but has money since then. He finished with 35 home runs, had a strong postseason, and has the fifth best NL OPS this year. How has his ability to turn things around shaped your offense?

For Erick Blasco, you have a lot of tired players on your roster. Will you rest them for today's game?

What's the gameplan for beating a team like the Cubs today?

How has Raimel Tapia's loss affected your team this season?

[Commissioner Erick]

For Erick Blasco, you have a lot of tired players on your roster. Will you rest them for today's game?


Yes, thanks to our schedule and how invaluable Nolan Arenado and David Dahl are to our team, we've extended them pretty hard and have a full week ahead. We have only one day off until May 8 so we need to give some rest to those guys at some point. With our worst-performing pitcher on the mound against a fearsome team like the Cubs, this is probably our best chance to rest our guys. It's possible we take a loss at full strength anyway so may as well get everyone at full strength for next time. 

What's the gameplan for beating a team like the Cubs today?


We'll have Dahl and Arenado resting so it's going to be extremely difficult to beat the Cubs. Foremost, we'll need Chi Chi Gonzalez to throw strikes. He doesn't have the stuff he used to so he's trying to throw sinkers below the zone but everyone is reading it. He's walking everyone and it's forcing him to elevate the ball a little more. As a result, his grounders are way down and he's being hit hard in the zone. He'll need to be better at working the edges, but inside of the zone not outside. From there, we'll need our defense to pick him up. Travis Demeritte and Abraham Almonte are no Nolan Arenado and David Dahl, but this still should be a good defensive lineup everywhere but shortstop. Finally, we'll still hace Charlie Blackmon so we'll have some our better hitters in the lineup. We'll need Trevor Story to produce though. We're waiting on a regression from him and with some strikeout guys ahead of him, it's possible he'll be coming up with men on base with two outs. He'll need to deliver.


How has Raimel Tapia's loss affected your team this season?

Honestly, it hasn't been terrible. Obviously, we want and need him to be at our best, but we've given a lot of at bats to Corey Dickerson and he's produced. Dickerson was identified as soon as Tapia went down, and since picking him up, he's gone and hit .358 with five home runs. We lose the speed and average that Tapia brings, and those are real losses. His defense is also valuable. However Dickerson's strong play has helped weather what would be a big loss for most teams.

[Commissioner Erick]

Rockies 6 - Cubs 3


WP: C. Gonzalez (2-2)
LP: J. Arrieta (3-2)
SV: G. Holland (6)



The Colorado Rockies used Monday's game to get some rest, expecting that with their worst starter on the mound, they weren't very likely to win. Fortunately for them, the Chicago Cubs also needed a game to rest their starters.

In a backup-filled affair, the Colorado Rockies got a strong outing from Chi Chi Gonzalez and moved to within a game of .500 after a 6-3 win over the Chicago Cubs.

Colorado saw a couple of slumping players have nice days to help the offense. Trevor Story made a conscious effort to go the other way, something he tends to do frequently already. He put the ball in play in all his plate appearances, a grounder to short, two grounders between first and second, one of which snuck through for a hit, and a booming double. Story ended up scoring two runs.

Abraham Almonte also had a couple of base knocks, and he scored ahead of Josh Ockimey's booming double in the fifth that put the game away. The two hits raised his average to .233. Sergio Alcantara capped Colorado's scoring with a sixth inning RBI hit, just his sixth of the year.

Corey Dickerson, who has not been struggling, got Colorado on the board with his sixth home run of the year in the second inning and he continues to build on an impressive season.

With Colorado's struggling hitters and backups all contributing, it was enough to put them in position for a win. Chicago's backups also contributed, it was its regulars who let them down.

The bottom of the Cubs lineup saw Chris Sedio pop a two-run home run, while Stephen Vogt had two hits. Justin Upton had a hit, and Albert Almora reached base twice. Because the top of the lineup was ineffective, it didn't matter.

Xander Bogerts had a rare 0-5 day, his first 0-5 this year. Anthony Rizzo had a single in four at bats and Jeimer Candelario drew a walk in four plate appearances. That was it for the heart of the order though.

Colorado's defense came through in support of Chi Chi Gonzalez. Gonzalez allowed just a run over 6 innings, walking four and allowing six hits, but yielding no extra base knocks. He induced a ton of ground balls though, eight outs, and four that snuck through for hits. His ability to get grounders limited the Cubs extra base hits, plus it induced two double plays to get the Rockies out of trouble.

It was Gonzalez' second win of the year in by far his best start. Brandon Kintzler pitched a scoreless seventh, David Robertson came off the DL to work a strong eighth, and after getting in trouble in the ninth, Greg Holland got three outs for his sixth save.


Questions for the GMs:


For Brandon Hillebrand, if you knew the Rockies were resting their starters, would you have rested yours in the game?

A lot of your depth pieces had very nice games, but Mark Zagunis went 0-4. Does his struggles worry you?

What is it about Chi Chi Gonzalez that frustrates your hitters so much?

For Erick Blasco, if you knew the Cubs were resting their starters, would you have followed suit?

Josh Ockimey had another extra base hit. Talk about what he's provided your team?

Why was Chi Chi Gonzalez able to do so well today with his struggles this year?

[Commissioner Erick]

For Erick Blasco, if you knew the Cubs were resting their starters, would you have followed suit?

Actually, no. I was honestly not super confident in winning at full strength, so if I knew the Cubs were resting their guys I would have pounced and tried to capture that win. Fortunately, Story hit well and Chi Chi didn't blow up.

Josh Ockimey had another extra base hit. Talk about what he's provided your team?

I was worried that Ockimey would be a pretty mediocre hitter. Like, he would hit for some power but with a low average and only at home. He's really done a good job of hitting for average and not just power, which has really helped our lineup. We really have a lot of power already so his batting average has been a welcome boon for us.

Why was Chi Chi Gonzalez able to do so well today with his struggles this year?

I don't really know. He really nibbled and worked the low part of the zone. Some of those low pitches turned into balls, and some were hit well for singles, but he stayed away from the fat part of the plate. Thanks to some of the Cubs regulars having off days, it worked for us.