Game of the Week: May 18: HOU @ MIA

[Commissioner Erick]

Houston Astros (23-16) @ Miami Marlins (20-17)


HOU: Rogelio Armenteros (1-3, 7.41)
MIA: Adam Conley (2-1, 4.75)


The Marlins youth brigade finally vaulted over .500 and into the NL playoff picture last week. The Astros parade of All Stars finally vaulted to the top of the AL West last week.

Two clubs flying high will face off when the Miami Marlins host the Houston Astros in the Game of the Week.

Miami is finally starting to see a winning record as the fruit of their rebuild. Only three regulars in their lineup are over 26, and the remaining veterans are each having strong seasons.

Jeren Kendall is the jewel of the system and despite having an exactly league average bat according to OPS+ is on pace for a 4.3-WAR season. Kendall is an idiosyncratic player. He's blessed with preternatural speed, which has him with 13 steals in 14 attempts, a +2 zone rating, and the ability to beat out infield hits. Despite his speed, he's a patient hitter with a big swing who draws a good share of walks, strikes out a ton, and hits for good power, mitigating his speed. The result is a league-average three-true-outcomes bopper who plays tremendous defense and has great wheels. There's still some room to shorten his swing and gain experience, but it's interesting to see how Miami uses Kendall going forward. Right now he's doing his damage as a ninth-place hitter.

The rest of Miami's bright young outfield is struggling though. Luis Robert finally put foot problems behind him, but he hasn't been right at the plate this season, hitting for just a .289 slugging percentage, playing poor defense, and now having heart palpitations. There are whispers that he's suffering from stress and anxiety after the injuries last season have forced him to tinker with his swing and regain his timing.

Israel Soto tore up the mid-minors last year and earned himself a spot on the Dominican National Team and the Marlins this spring. Soto has a robust .368 OBP, but only a .370 slugging percentage as the power hasn't developed yet for the right fielder. Trent Clark is also in the mix and is also struggling, with a .218 average only incrementally better than the .211 mark he put up with the Reds last season.

Stuart Fairchild is the minors, but so his Mitch Haniger. Ben Vincent is committed to having his youngsters figure things out at the major league level, and some of his cadets have done so.

Blake Tiberi, acquired last July from the Mets for a pitching prospect, is doing just that. Blessed with a short swing, Tiberi is hitting .329 to start the season. He also has 11 doubles in the early going, offsetting his lack of over-the-fence power. It's an interesting profile and it'll play if he keeps up either an average over .310 or the doubles.

Donny Sands is another guy acquired from a New York team, this time from the Yankees in a trade for Trevor Bauer in 2017. Sands is hitting over .300 with five home runs is just over 100 plate appearances. Just 24 and already a captain in the locker room, Sands' strong play has galvanized the locker room in Miami, contributing to their winning start.

They'll send veteran lefty Adam Conley to tame Houston. Conley lost an NL-high 15-games last season, but is pitching more like he did in 2018 where he limited home runs to post a 4.32 ERA. Whether that's enough against the AL's best offense is a key question.

After a bit of a slow start, Houston has found its groove lately, winning seven of its last nine games against good competition. The Astros took two of three in Anaheim against the Angels, nabbed three of four in New York against the Yankees, and won both games of a brief homestand against Atlanta.

Their big acquisition this offseason was former MVP Mike Trout, and Trout has been everything the Angels have wanted. He’s won the last two Player of the Weeks, and is hitting .441 with eight home runs and 23 RBIs in May. He struggled in April as Houston went 13-10, but his May explosion has mirrored the team’s as Houston has leapfrogged the Angels and Athletics this month.

While Trout’s been spectacular, he’s merely one part of an Astros machine that’s been laying waste to American League pitching. Except for catcher and the George Springer/Tony Kemp platoon, every position in Houston’s lineup has put up 0.6 WAR or higher. Alex Bregman has led the way with an MVP-caliber beginning to 2020 after finishing third in MVP voting last year. He’s hitting .349 with seven home runs, 13 doubles, 38 runs scored, and a 28-23 walk to strikeout ratio. Bregman has been a consistent star since the PBA began, turning into an MVP-candidate last year. Even if the average tails off a little, he’s hit over .300 each season of his career, he’s improved his power, and he’s been better this year on the basepaths and in the field than in each season of his career.

Adding more fuel to the fire, nearly all major players for the Astros hit right-handed and the team is incredibly 20-12 against right-handed pitching this year. Those righties will have a chance to square off against the left-handed Conley tonight, which may be a bloodbath.

Miami will have to hope they score runs against the weak link in the Astros, their fifth starter. Rogelio Armenteros has been getting the nod, but he has a 7.41 ERA in seven starts this year. He’s already given up 11 home runs in 37.2 innings, and has struck out just 26 in 37.2 innings. He may not have the stuff needed to survive in the majors, a theory the Marlins hitters are more than willing to test out.


Questions for the GMs:


For Ryan James, you certainly have an excellent reputation in team building. You took over a Rays franchise that missed the playoffs in 2017, and turned them into a 97-game winner and an AL East champion in 2018. When you left last year, the team reverted and missed the postseason again. Houston had a good but somewhat disappointing 2018, but you came on board and turned them into a juggernaut last year and the team looks great this year. What do you attribute that success to?

Tony Kemp has had a disappointing season thus far, while George Springer has been strong. Why is Kemp getting more at bats of late compared to Springer?

The back of your rotation hasn’t been great. Are you concerned with what you’ve gotten out of Armenteros so far?

For Ben Vincent, Wilmer Flores had a solid year for you last year, you let him walk, and now he returns having a strong season with Houston. How do you feel about the transition away from Flores this season?

Houston has a very right-handed heavy lineup. Would you like to see your manager bot be more careful with Conley today?

Your team is in the thick of a playoff race, but none of your outfielders are really establishing themselves offensively. Do you have any thoughts about calling up Haniger at some point?

[Ben_Dodgers]

Miami has been hot lately, but this week will be a challenge as we face two juggernauts. It will be a good test of this team's potential.

Flores was a solid contributor, and we would have loved to have him back, but we could not reach agreement on a contract. It's great to see him doing well, though of course we wouldn't mind a slump this week. Both Ford and Dietrich have been holding down the corner well. We're keeping close tabs on Jack Labosky at AAA as a long term solution at first, though whether he'll debut this year is an open question. His recent injury certainly pushes that decision out.

It's a small sample size, but Conley has actually been significantly more effective against righties than lefties this season. And honestly, some of those Houston right handers haven't fared so well versus lefties this year: Flores and Trout and hitting .231, and Correa is hitting .207. Houston brings a lot of power in their lineup, but Adam has done a great job keeping the ball in the park, and of course it's a lot harder to hit home runs in Miami than in Houston, so we're glad to be playing at home. Conley does need to work on keeping his pitch count down to go deeper into games, but after a terrible outing in Pittsburgh at the beginning of the month, his last two starts have been great and we're looking for a strong performance today.

Clark got off to a terrific start this spring, while Haniger really struggled. We decided he needed some time to work on his mechanics. Now that Mitch seems to have sorted out his swing we'll probably see him back up with the big league club soon. (I probably should have called him up this week, but too late now...)

[Commissioner Erick]

Astros 2 - Marlins 0


WP: R. Armenteros (2-3)
LP: A. Conley (2-2)
SV: L. Gregerson (1)


The Astros expected to beat up Adam Conley and score a lot of runs to beat the Marlins in a high-scoring affair. Conley, however, was terrific, teaming with four relievers to stymie the explosive Astros lineup.

Fortunately for Houston, Rogelio Armenteros picked a great time to pitch the game of his life.

Armenteros worked 7 shutout innings in the best start of his career, Yuli Gurriel hit a two-run home runs, and the Houston Astros nipped the Miami Marlins 2-0.

Armenteros was terrific in easily his best start of the season. He hadn't worked over 6 innings in any prior start, and his fewest runs allowed was a single run in 6 innings in Seattle. He's shown a significant ability to pitch better on the road this year, probably attributed to his lack of movement. He's allowed 11 home runs this year with two coming in three road starts and eight coming in five home starts. With Miami not an extreme home run environment, this worked to his advantage.

Armenteros only struck out four, so 16 of his outs were on balls in play. An even split were on fly outs and ground outs. Only two hits were in the air to the outfield, so Armenteros allowed 10 fly balls, eight of which were turned into outs, only one went for extra bases, and none went for home runs. That ratio is probably easier to pull off in Miami were the fences are farther away.

Still, Armenteros only has two impact pitches, a four-seam fastball and a very good curveball. He also throws a changeup that often stays firm and in the zone. Miami's inability to hit him hard shows a lack of impact bats in their lineup.

Coming off a successful 2019, Jose Abreu hasn't delivered this year. Abreu has hit for power, but he went 0-3 dropping his average to .234. Combined with Mike Ford going 0-4, including hitting into a double play, the middle of Miami's lineup went 0-7 with a walk. With how many youngsters are in their lineup, they need those two to produce to put up consistent offense.

Israel Soto had two hits and a walk, so he was able to figure out Armenteros. However, Jeren Kendall went just 0-3, Trent Clark went 1-4 with two strikeouts, and Blake Tiberi went 1-5, including a ground out with two in scoring position in the seventh. It's a frustrating indicator that Miami still has its work cut out to create a potent offense.

Houston has a potent offense but it couldn't get going against Conley. The Astros played a number of backups, so the lineup was missing Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman, but it still featured Mike Trout and a number of righties. Aside from a Gurriel two-run home run in the second, the Astros lineup was handled quite easily. Houston had one other extra base hit in the game and struck out 13 times. Conley fanned eight and walked none, both season best marks, and he managed to strike out Trout twice.

Miami's bullpen also pitched well. Nick Wittgren faced four batters and got four outs, Brandon Maurer worked around two walks to work a scoreless eighth, and after Trevor Rosenthal allowed two hits in the ninth, and Kyle Barraclough walked Mookie Betts to load the bases, Jose Altuve hit a harmless fly ball to Clark to keep it close headed to the bottom of the ninth.

It was not to be though. Luge Gregerson came on for the ninth with Ken Giles unavailable. He struck out two, allowed a weak grounder to go for an infield hit, then got a weak grounder to end the game for his first save of the season.


Questions for the GMs:


For Ryan James, Armenteros was sensational. What allowed him to pitch so well today?

You have a really good bullpen, but with two in scoring position in the second, you allowed Armenteros to face Blake Tiberi, who had been sensational this year. Did you agree with the decision?

Tony Kemp went 1-4 and really hasn't given you much. Will you give him fewer at bats going forward?

For Ben Vincent, how disappointing is to see such a good Conley start go for naught?

Trevor Rosenthal got into a little bit of trouble late and needed Barraclough to bail him out. Are you concerned with Rosenthal's control thus far?

Was there something about Armenteros that gave your guys trouble?

[Ben_Dodgers]

We'd always like to win, but we have to give credit to the other team, too. Houston made the plays when it counted, and we can't win if we don't score.

I'm not too worried about Rosenthal's control. He pitched in a couple of games that got away from us, which has wildly skewed his stats this year, but otherwise he's been pretty steady. We'll keep sending him out there in the late innings.

Willie Keeler's motto was "Hit 'em where they ain't." We didn't do that today. We made plenty of contact, but the balls were playable.