Post by Commissioner Erick on Dec 26, 2018 10:11:35 GMT -5
Philadelphia Phillies (49-39) at Milwaukee Brewers (52-38)
PHI: Aaron Nola (4-3, 4.15)
MIL: Luis Ortiz (7-4, 3.08)
The Phillies and Brewers have been down franchises having their best seasons in their history this year.
A playoff spot may open up for either of them, but they may have to go through each other to earn it.
Surprising playoff hopefuls square off when the Philadelphia Phillies travel to Wisconsin to take on the Milwaukee Brewers.
Milwaukee's 10-man pitching staff has held up well in the first half despite the severe constraints of having that few an allotment of pitchers. However, the offense stopped producing last week, as the team scored just 13 runs in its last six losses. The team has employed questionable strategies such as bunting with power hitter A.J. Reed late in close games, and a near perfect record in one-run games has turned into more of a coin flip in recent weeks.
Milwaukee's most extreme strategy has been starting Orlando Arcia—at catcher. A shortstop by trade, Arcia has started 20 games this season at catcher. Teams have attempted just 11 steals in those games though, and despite 36 passed balls and a -9.0 zone rating, the Brewers haven't given up a ton of runs during the stretch. The Brewers are only 8-12 with Arcia at catcher, but they've only given up more than six runs twice, so things haven't gotten farcical.
He'll be receiving pitches from Luis Ortiz, who has been one of the season's success stories. Ortiz has gone 7-4 with a 3.08 ERA despite being unheralded coming in to the year. He won't go deep into games with Milwaukee employing a four-man starting staff, but it allows him to maximize his fastball and slider and give less attention to weaker curveballs and changeups. Naturally, Ortiz' excellent slider and middling changeup and curveball result in lefties slugging higher against him than righties. However, thanks to really good break on his slider and great command, lefties and righties have similar averages and on-base numbers.
Milwaukee will take on a Phillies team that may be burned by calling up its best prospects too late. Seth Beer and Mickey Moniak have been superstars for the Phillies since being called from Triple-A and the top prospects have been spectacular. The Phillies are 15-4 since Seth Beer was called up, and 20-13 with Moniak on the team. Beer has only played in 13 games, starting 10, but he's hitting .359 with eight driven in. Moniak, for his part, has hit .304 with three homers, three doubles, two triples, and four steals in 21 games, 17 starts.
Odubel Herrera is an All-Star this year and has a .335 average with 61 driven in, while Andrew Pullin is hitting .295 with 16 home runs. Their DH is hitting .329 with 19 home runs, meaning the Phillies have a roster crunch with too many good players for spots in the lineup. While this is tricky to navigate, it's a wonderful problem for a team coming off three rough seasons and seeing fruits of the rebuild beginning to blossom. The Phillies are now the second wild card and are just 1.5 games behind the Nationals in the NL East.
Like Milwaukee, they'll turn to a pitcher who doesn't go deep in games. Aaron Nola will get the start, as he's turned back into a starter after being converted to relief last year. Nola can't go more than 80 pitches or so, so he seldom works at least 5 innings. However, while he doesn't provide length, he's been very effective when he does pitch. Nola has the best walk rate in baseball this year as he simply doesn't throw ball four. Nola's struck out 85 in 93.1 innings leading to a 3.49 FIP that's well below his 4.15 ERA.
Nola's inability to provide length will test the Phillies' long relief and middle relief, but it's a strong group. Edgar E. Garcia is Philadelphia's long guy right now, and Garcia has a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings. Josh Fields was excellent for the Dodgers until last season, and he's been outstanding his first year in Philadelphia, working to a 2.35 ERA as a middle reliever. Edubray Ramos is another middle man, but he was a closer earlier in the year and has 12 saves. Ramos has a pretty decent 3.65 ERA, and has a 10.2 strikeout-per-nine rate.
Easily the best story of Philadelphia's relief pitchers is Ruben Alaniz. Alaniz is a 29-year-old rookie middle reliever—who earned an All-Star nod. Alaniz has gone 6-1 with a 1.73 ERA in 41.2 innings. and is facing the team that never called him to the majors in Milwaukee. A ground ball pitcher with a great changeup, a smart mind, and a good work ethic, Alaniz really studies opposing hitters and has been outstanding this year.
Alaniz has been a key part of bridging from Nola to the late innings, meaning a 29-year-old rookie minor league free agent and a starter who can't get out of the fifth inning have been the keys to the Phillies success. Then again, it can't be as strange as a team with a 10-man staff. In fact, this Phillies and Brewers game may be determined by which unusual pitching philosophy works out the best.
Questions for the GMs:
For Matt Grubs, Aaron Nola hasn't worked deep in games. Are you concerned that strategy will tax your bullpen going forward?
Right now you have Moniak as a bench player and Seth Beer not starting every day. Do you feel like their talents are so strong that they need to play close to every day?
Yordan Alvarez has gone from a Rule-V pick last year to a starter with 14 home runs. Were you expecting this when you picked him in the Rule-V draft last year?
For Vic Black, Luis Ortiz has been outstanding for you. Were you expecting him to be an ace for you this year?
Orlando Arcia is now starting as a catcher. What convinced you to make that move?
Chris Koch is having a good year in Triple-A. Any reason why he's been demoted this year?
PHI: Aaron Nola (4-3, 4.15)
MIL: Luis Ortiz (7-4, 3.08)
The Phillies and Brewers have been down franchises having their best seasons in their history this year.
A playoff spot may open up for either of them, but they may have to go through each other to earn it.
Surprising playoff hopefuls square off when the Philadelphia Phillies travel to Wisconsin to take on the Milwaukee Brewers.
Milwaukee's 10-man pitching staff has held up well in the first half despite the severe constraints of having that few an allotment of pitchers. However, the offense stopped producing last week, as the team scored just 13 runs in its last six losses. The team has employed questionable strategies such as bunting with power hitter A.J. Reed late in close games, and a near perfect record in one-run games has turned into more of a coin flip in recent weeks.
Milwaukee's most extreme strategy has been starting Orlando Arcia—at catcher. A shortstop by trade, Arcia has started 20 games this season at catcher. Teams have attempted just 11 steals in those games though, and despite 36 passed balls and a -9.0 zone rating, the Brewers haven't given up a ton of runs during the stretch. The Brewers are only 8-12 with Arcia at catcher, but they've only given up more than six runs twice, so things haven't gotten farcical.
He'll be receiving pitches from Luis Ortiz, who has been one of the season's success stories. Ortiz has gone 7-4 with a 3.08 ERA despite being unheralded coming in to the year. He won't go deep into games with Milwaukee employing a four-man starting staff, but it allows him to maximize his fastball and slider and give less attention to weaker curveballs and changeups. Naturally, Ortiz' excellent slider and middling changeup and curveball result in lefties slugging higher against him than righties. However, thanks to really good break on his slider and great command, lefties and righties have similar averages and on-base numbers.
Milwaukee will take on a Phillies team that may be burned by calling up its best prospects too late. Seth Beer and Mickey Moniak have been superstars for the Phillies since being called from Triple-A and the top prospects have been spectacular. The Phillies are 15-4 since Seth Beer was called up, and 20-13 with Moniak on the team. Beer has only played in 13 games, starting 10, but he's hitting .359 with eight driven in. Moniak, for his part, has hit .304 with three homers, three doubles, two triples, and four steals in 21 games, 17 starts.
Odubel Herrera is an All-Star this year and has a .335 average with 61 driven in, while Andrew Pullin is hitting .295 with 16 home runs. Their DH is hitting .329 with 19 home runs, meaning the Phillies have a roster crunch with too many good players for spots in the lineup. While this is tricky to navigate, it's a wonderful problem for a team coming off three rough seasons and seeing fruits of the rebuild beginning to blossom. The Phillies are now the second wild card and are just 1.5 games behind the Nationals in the NL East.
Like Milwaukee, they'll turn to a pitcher who doesn't go deep in games. Aaron Nola will get the start, as he's turned back into a starter after being converted to relief last year. Nola can't go more than 80 pitches or so, so he seldom works at least 5 innings. However, while he doesn't provide length, he's been very effective when he does pitch. Nola has the best walk rate in baseball this year as he simply doesn't throw ball four. Nola's struck out 85 in 93.1 innings leading to a 3.49 FIP that's well below his 4.15 ERA.
Nola's inability to provide length will test the Phillies' long relief and middle relief, but it's a strong group. Edgar E. Garcia is Philadelphia's long guy right now, and Garcia has a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings. Josh Fields was excellent for the Dodgers until last season, and he's been outstanding his first year in Philadelphia, working to a 2.35 ERA as a middle reliever. Edubray Ramos is another middle man, but he was a closer earlier in the year and has 12 saves. Ramos has a pretty decent 3.65 ERA, and has a 10.2 strikeout-per-nine rate.
Easily the best story of Philadelphia's relief pitchers is Ruben Alaniz. Alaniz is a 29-year-old rookie middle reliever—who earned an All-Star nod. Alaniz has gone 6-1 with a 1.73 ERA in 41.2 innings. and is facing the team that never called him to the majors in Milwaukee. A ground ball pitcher with a great changeup, a smart mind, and a good work ethic, Alaniz really studies opposing hitters and has been outstanding this year.
Alaniz has been a key part of bridging from Nola to the late innings, meaning a 29-year-old rookie minor league free agent and a starter who can't get out of the fifth inning have been the keys to the Phillies success. Then again, it can't be as strange as a team with a 10-man staff. In fact, this Phillies and Brewers game may be determined by which unusual pitching philosophy works out the best.
Questions for the GMs:
For Matt Grubs, Aaron Nola hasn't worked deep in games. Are you concerned that strategy will tax your bullpen going forward?
Right now you have Moniak as a bench player and Seth Beer not starting every day. Do you feel like their talents are so strong that they need to play close to every day?
Yordan Alvarez has gone from a Rule-V pick last year to a starter with 14 home runs. Were you expecting this when you picked him in the Rule-V draft last year?
For Vic Black, Luis Ortiz has been outstanding for you. Were you expecting him to be an ace for you this year?
Orlando Arcia is now starting as a catcher. What convinced you to make that move?
Chris Koch is having a good year in Triple-A. Any reason why he's been demoted this year?
