Post by Commissioner Erick on Feb 3, 2019 10:51:48 GMT -5
Oakland Athletics @ Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox bring their juggernaut of a team into the Wild Card Game with a huge advantage on paper against the upstart Oakland Athletics. Chicago should pack U.S. Cellular Field, as their 3.3 million attendance this year is a franchise record. Those fans will be seeing the first AL team in a Wild Card Game with 100+ wins. Of course, the last time a 100+ win team was in the Wild Card Game, Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers were done in by one swing from Jung-Ho Kang and the Pirates in 2017. Oakland has steadily built itself up, improving its record each year. Thanks to some shrewd acquisitions, the A's are a playoff team and have the kind of pitcher starting tomorrow to advance to the ALDS.
Athletics Hitting versus White Sox Pitching:
Chicago will use Eduardo Rodriguez to start the Wild Card Game, and he's an excellent option to have. Rodriguez has won 35 games the past two years and doesn't have many weaknesses. He's always been strong against lefties, but as he's developed, he's become better at figuring out righties. As a result, righties went from hitting .335 off him in 2017, to .283 in 2018, to .265 in 2019, to .249 this season. Stacking righties is better than having lefties, but it isn't the way out it used to be.
Rodriguez has been stingy against the long ball in his career, particularly this year. His 0.78 HR/9 ranks fourth in the AL, unsurprisingly correlated to his success against righties. Rodriguez doesn't get hit hard by righties, he keeps the ball in the park, and he has excellent control. His walk rate this year ranks ninth in the AL, with the only pitchers above him either contact-oriented back end starters, surefire aces, or Rick Porcello.
The one thing Rodriguez hasn't done well is handle the postseason. He allowed four runs in 5.2 innings to the Yankees in a loss last ALDS, and carried an 8.10 ERA, allowing four home runs in 10 innings in Chicago's 2018 title run. Now 27, this will be a great chance for Rodriguez to put a shaky postseason past and turn into the reliable veteran Chicago will need him to be.
Chicago's bullpen has ranked sixth or seventh in ERA the past three years. As that fact shows, its good but not spectacular.
After a couple of good seasons in the desert, Chicago traded with Arizona for Jimmie Sherfy and he's been stellar. With a 2.93 ERA and the fourth best strikeout rate in the AL this year among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings, Sherfy is a weapon at the back of the pen. Lefties don't hit for average against him, but five of the six home runs hit off him have been hit by lefties. Righties however, have just a single home run against him and a .213 average. That's a recent development as righties have slugged against Sherfy in the past.
The rest of Chicago's pen is a lot of high strikeout guys with ERAs between four and six. There's a good left/right split, but Chicago has to have wanted more out of Derek Law and Tony Zych. Law was brought over for San Francisco and despite a fantastic FIP, has a 4.11 ERA. He strikes guys out, doesn't give up home runs, and isn't too bad with the walks. Thanks to a .347 BABIP though, he hasn't been as good as advertised. Zych meanwhile, has also struck out everything and been average with walks. However, Zych will give up home runs, 10 in 56 innings, so while his BABIP is a little bit lower, and his FIP a little higher, his 4.18 ERA is similar to Law's. Either way, if Oakland is behind late against Chicago it shouldn't find itself panicking.
Chicago's defense is middle-of-the-road now that Tim Anderson is a Designated Hitter.
Oakland has won with pitching this year as the Athletics are only 11th in runs scored. They don't hit for much power, though they'll get on base at a good clip. It's a bit of a strange profile.
Their best player has been cultivated through their system, and their best surrounding pieces have been acquired through trades. Franklin Barreto is the face of the franchise and one of the game's unique talents. He had his worst season this year, and still managed to lead the AL in doubles for the third straight year. Barreto is aggressive on the bases and fantastic at peppering the ball to all fields. That approach allows him to hit gaps and beat throws to second base. He's fourth all time in doubles despite playing just over 30 games in 2017. Barretto knocked him 107 runs this year, the result of batting behind Ender Inciarte. The Venezuelan Inciarte had gone from the Braves to the Cardinals to the Mariners to Oakland in a half a season, plus a stop in The Netherlands for the Venezuelan National Team for the WBC. Character concerns had dogged him, and with Atlanta, St. Louis, and Seattle rebuilding, he didn't make a lot of sense there. In Oakland, though, he's hit .311 with a .359 OBP, scoring 51 runs in a half a season. Inciarte hits lefties as well as righties, giving Oakland a good punch against Rodriguez.
Arquimedes Aquino was acquired in a lopsided trade with the Reds last summer and he's given the Athletics a power component they've otherwise lacked. His 23 home runs lead the team and helped the team get off to a fast start. Needing help to keep from fading, Oakland then acquired Anthony Santander this summer from Baltimore. Santander had fallen out of favor with the Orioles, but he's clubbed 12 home runs in 46 games with Oakland, picking up the slack as a power bat as Aquino faded.
Oakland does a good job of platooning and warping its lineup to take advantage of handedness. Ryon Healy is hitting over .400 against lefties and seldom bats against righties. Matt Duffy hits over .300 against lefties and moves up to second in starts against them. Against righties, he bats ninth. A result of the platooning is that Oakland has a strong bench.
Carlos Santana has had a dreadful time of it in Oakland, but still has a great eye, good pop, and postseason experience. Blake Rutherford couldn't build on a strong rookie year, but scouts like his swing and he can steal a base in a pinch. Santander will likely take a seat against Rodriguez but has big power. The chess-matches late in games will be fun to follow.
White Sox Hitting versus Athletics Pitching:
Against right-handers Chicago tops the league in virtually all offensive categories, so it's fortunate for Oakland that they'll be able to throw left-hander Brandon Finnegan at the White Sox.
Finnegan is third in the AL in wins, ERA and WHIP as he's 18-5 with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. Finnegan's also thrived on the road with a 10-4 record and a 2.67 ERA. Much of his success is fueled by a very low BABIP of .271, but he's not all smoke and mirrors. His 3.86 FIP is still solid, as he strikes out 25% of batters with a 7.5% walk rate.
Lefties are hitting just .203 with six home runs off Finnegan, which is huge as the White Sox bring Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, and Corey D. Ray from the left side of the plate. Finnegan's also continued to work and develop his changeup, which is why, like Rodriguez, he's had his best success against righties this year.
Oakland has the second best relief ERA in the AL, so they're dependable late in games. Depending on what Oakland does with Brad Hand, it's a very right-handed relief corps. Also, outside of Bobby Wahl, it's not a very strikeout dependent one, as the staff uses the O.co Coliseum's dimensions to its favor.
In his second year as closer, Bobby Wahl has emerged as one of the best options in the game. He saved 33 games this year, sixth in the league, with a 2.56 ERA. He only allowed four home runs this season, which was the secret to his success. He has explosive stuff, particularly against righties, but he's also wild. If he can keep the ball in the park though, he can simply strike guys out after walking prior batters. Wahl is dominant against righties, and while still excellent, is at least mortal against lefties, which would provide hope to Chicago if the White Sox needed to come back.
For setup men, Liam Hendricks is the control option who won't walk anybody, but will give up some home runs. He's worked to a 4.17 ERA and has gotten worse as the year has progressed. J.B. Wendelken also gives up home runs, but his walk rate is good and his strikeout rate is exceptional at 35%.
In the middle innings, Ryan Dull has great control and a great strikeout rate, while Gabriel Ynoa succeeds by keeping the ball in the strike zone and on the ground. Ynoa would be best served coming in with runners on, while Dull can blow anybody away.
While it's a good pen, all the righties are better against righties than lefties—as is the lefty-specialist Brad Hand. This makes Oakland very susceptible to Chicago's best bats late in the game.
Speaking of Chicago's best bats, the White Sox have the best offense in the American League with a generational core of spectacular hitters. Andrew Benintendi just had the highest OPS in a PBA season by a player not named Bryce Harper after he triple slashed .338/.421/.637. Benintndi hit 43 home runs and had 134 RBIs, massive amounts, especially for a center fielder. After dealing with him, Oakland will have to deal with the American League's Home Run and RBI leader, Rafael Devers, who slugged 48 homers, drove in 141, and had the third best OPS in the AL.
Setting up all that production is a guy at the top of the order with a .388 On-Base Percentage and 51 stolen bases. Yoan Moncada has a great swing, great patience, and with pitchers so focused on the bats at the plate, led the league in steals. Moncada is also a doubles machine, finishing second this year with 52.
The small saving grace about going through that lineup is that all three hitters are better against right-handed pitching. Even Chicago's supporting cast features powerful left-handed sluggers. Corey D. Ray, in his first full season as a Major Leaguer cracked 24 home runs with an .854 OPS and could have a long future in Chicago's outfield. After a slow start, Brendan McKay hit .300 or better in three of the final four full months, and he had six home runs in September. The former first round pick has an .825 OPS in his first full year in the big leagues.
Even ninth-place hitter Brett Austin had 15 home runs and an .839 OPS against righties, while hitting just two long balls with a .564 OPS against lefties.
With the exception of Austin, most of Chicago's left-handers and switch-hitters either do okay or really well against lefties too. It's simply the matter of facing an excellent lineup against lefties versus facing a historically explosive lineup against righties.
After all, from the right side of the plate Chicago will bring Alfredo Despaigne, who had 32 home runs and 117 RBIs this year and has a championship from his time in Japan. Also, Tim Anderson had his best power year with 22 home runs and 37 doubles, each the highest of his career. Finally, Dansby Swanson has nine home runs and an .855 OPS in his time as a White Sox hitter.
Off the bench, Joe DeCarlo can play the corners and slug a little bit from the right side, while Elijah Dilday hit .310 in 175 Plate Appearances. Should there be an injury, Tim Anderson can leave the DH spot and fill in badly at several positions.
In terms of Zone Rating, Oakland doesn't have a single position in the top or bottom eight, as they're a very average group.
Season Series:
The two teams split the season series, playing six games between a three week period in late June-early July. Benintendi and Devers homered off Jesse Hahn and Eduardo Rodriguez had a strong start as Chicago took the opener. Matt Olson had a two-run home run off Reynaldo Lopez in the eighth inning of the middle game as Brandon Finnegan allowed two runs in 7 innings to get the win. Carlos Martinez was strong in the rubber match as Chicago took the series at home.
In Oakland, Danny Salazar allowed nine runs in 1+ innings as Oakland blasted Chicago in the opener. In the middle game, Finnegan started and Benintendi sat, a combination that led to Chicago scoring only two runs. Matt Olson dunked a fly ball between Brandon Nimmo and Dilday for a walkoff win. After Oakland came back with a three-run eighth to take the lead in a quest for a sweep, DeCarlo hit a ninth inning tying home run off Hendricks before Benintendi hit a two-run blast off Hendricks and Chicago salvaged the final game.
Deciding Questions:
Will Oakland have enough offensive firepower to get to Rodriguez?
Can Oakland's bullpen hold down the White Sox after Finnegan leaves?
If Chicago has the lead, can Law and Zych hold it?
Prediction: Finnegan pitches well but Chicago still scratches more runs off him than Oakland does off Rodriguez. Chicago adds some insurance late. Chicago 6-3
The Chicago White Sox bring their juggernaut of a team into the Wild Card Game with a huge advantage on paper against the upstart Oakland Athletics. Chicago should pack U.S. Cellular Field, as their 3.3 million attendance this year is a franchise record. Those fans will be seeing the first AL team in a Wild Card Game with 100+ wins. Of course, the last time a 100+ win team was in the Wild Card Game, Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers were done in by one swing from Jung-Ho Kang and the Pirates in 2017. Oakland has steadily built itself up, improving its record each year. Thanks to some shrewd acquisitions, the A's are a playoff team and have the kind of pitcher starting tomorrow to advance to the ALDS.
Athletics Hitting versus White Sox Pitching:
Chicago will use Eduardo Rodriguez to start the Wild Card Game, and he's an excellent option to have. Rodriguez has won 35 games the past two years and doesn't have many weaknesses. He's always been strong against lefties, but as he's developed, he's become better at figuring out righties. As a result, righties went from hitting .335 off him in 2017, to .283 in 2018, to .265 in 2019, to .249 this season. Stacking righties is better than having lefties, but it isn't the way out it used to be.
Rodriguez has been stingy against the long ball in his career, particularly this year. His 0.78 HR/9 ranks fourth in the AL, unsurprisingly correlated to his success against righties. Rodriguez doesn't get hit hard by righties, he keeps the ball in the park, and he has excellent control. His walk rate this year ranks ninth in the AL, with the only pitchers above him either contact-oriented back end starters, surefire aces, or Rick Porcello.
The one thing Rodriguez hasn't done well is handle the postseason. He allowed four runs in 5.2 innings to the Yankees in a loss last ALDS, and carried an 8.10 ERA, allowing four home runs in 10 innings in Chicago's 2018 title run. Now 27, this will be a great chance for Rodriguez to put a shaky postseason past and turn into the reliable veteran Chicago will need him to be.
Chicago's bullpen has ranked sixth or seventh in ERA the past three years. As that fact shows, its good but not spectacular.
After a couple of good seasons in the desert, Chicago traded with Arizona for Jimmie Sherfy and he's been stellar. With a 2.93 ERA and the fourth best strikeout rate in the AL this year among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings, Sherfy is a weapon at the back of the pen. Lefties don't hit for average against him, but five of the six home runs hit off him have been hit by lefties. Righties however, have just a single home run against him and a .213 average. That's a recent development as righties have slugged against Sherfy in the past.
The rest of Chicago's pen is a lot of high strikeout guys with ERAs between four and six. There's a good left/right split, but Chicago has to have wanted more out of Derek Law and Tony Zych. Law was brought over for San Francisco and despite a fantastic FIP, has a 4.11 ERA. He strikes guys out, doesn't give up home runs, and isn't too bad with the walks. Thanks to a .347 BABIP though, he hasn't been as good as advertised. Zych meanwhile, has also struck out everything and been average with walks. However, Zych will give up home runs, 10 in 56 innings, so while his BABIP is a little bit lower, and his FIP a little higher, his 4.18 ERA is similar to Law's. Either way, if Oakland is behind late against Chicago it shouldn't find itself panicking.
Chicago's defense is middle-of-the-road now that Tim Anderson is a Designated Hitter.
Oakland has won with pitching this year as the Athletics are only 11th in runs scored. They don't hit for much power, though they'll get on base at a good clip. It's a bit of a strange profile.
Their best player has been cultivated through their system, and their best surrounding pieces have been acquired through trades. Franklin Barreto is the face of the franchise and one of the game's unique talents. He had his worst season this year, and still managed to lead the AL in doubles for the third straight year. Barreto is aggressive on the bases and fantastic at peppering the ball to all fields. That approach allows him to hit gaps and beat throws to second base. He's fourth all time in doubles despite playing just over 30 games in 2017. Barretto knocked him 107 runs this year, the result of batting behind Ender Inciarte. The Venezuelan Inciarte had gone from the Braves to the Cardinals to the Mariners to Oakland in a half a season, plus a stop in The Netherlands for the Venezuelan National Team for the WBC. Character concerns had dogged him, and with Atlanta, St. Louis, and Seattle rebuilding, he didn't make a lot of sense there. In Oakland, though, he's hit .311 with a .359 OBP, scoring 51 runs in a half a season. Inciarte hits lefties as well as righties, giving Oakland a good punch against Rodriguez.
Arquimedes Aquino was acquired in a lopsided trade with the Reds last summer and he's given the Athletics a power component they've otherwise lacked. His 23 home runs lead the team and helped the team get off to a fast start. Needing help to keep from fading, Oakland then acquired Anthony Santander this summer from Baltimore. Santander had fallen out of favor with the Orioles, but he's clubbed 12 home runs in 46 games with Oakland, picking up the slack as a power bat as Aquino faded.
Oakland does a good job of platooning and warping its lineup to take advantage of handedness. Ryon Healy is hitting over .400 against lefties and seldom bats against righties. Matt Duffy hits over .300 against lefties and moves up to second in starts against them. Against righties, he bats ninth. A result of the platooning is that Oakland has a strong bench.
Carlos Santana has had a dreadful time of it in Oakland, but still has a great eye, good pop, and postseason experience. Blake Rutherford couldn't build on a strong rookie year, but scouts like his swing and he can steal a base in a pinch. Santander will likely take a seat against Rodriguez but has big power. The chess-matches late in games will be fun to follow.
White Sox Hitting versus Athletics Pitching:
Against right-handers Chicago tops the league in virtually all offensive categories, so it's fortunate for Oakland that they'll be able to throw left-hander Brandon Finnegan at the White Sox.
Finnegan is third in the AL in wins, ERA and WHIP as he's 18-5 with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. Finnegan's also thrived on the road with a 10-4 record and a 2.67 ERA. Much of his success is fueled by a very low BABIP of .271, but he's not all smoke and mirrors. His 3.86 FIP is still solid, as he strikes out 25% of batters with a 7.5% walk rate.
Lefties are hitting just .203 with six home runs off Finnegan, which is huge as the White Sox bring Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, and Corey D. Ray from the left side of the plate. Finnegan's also continued to work and develop his changeup, which is why, like Rodriguez, he's had his best success against righties this year.
Oakland has the second best relief ERA in the AL, so they're dependable late in games. Depending on what Oakland does with Brad Hand, it's a very right-handed relief corps. Also, outside of Bobby Wahl, it's not a very strikeout dependent one, as the staff uses the O.co Coliseum's dimensions to its favor.
In his second year as closer, Bobby Wahl has emerged as one of the best options in the game. He saved 33 games this year, sixth in the league, with a 2.56 ERA. He only allowed four home runs this season, which was the secret to his success. He has explosive stuff, particularly against righties, but he's also wild. If he can keep the ball in the park though, he can simply strike guys out after walking prior batters. Wahl is dominant against righties, and while still excellent, is at least mortal against lefties, which would provide hope to Chicago if the White Sox needed to come back.
For setup men, Liam Hendricks is the control option who won't walk anybody, but will give up some home runs. He's worked to a 4.17 ERA and has gotten worse as the year has progressed. J.B. Wendelken also gives up home runs, but his walk rate is good and his strikeout rate is exceptional at 35%.
In the middle innings, Ryan Dull has great control and a great strikeout rate, while Gabriel Ynoa succeeds by keeping the ball in the strike zone and on the ground. Ynoa would be best served coming in with runners on, while Dull can blow anybody away.
While it's a good pen, all the righties are better against righties than lefties—as is the lefty-specialist Brad Hand. This makes Oakland very susceptible to Chicago's best bats late in the game.
Speaking of Chicago's best bats, the White Sox have the best offense in the American League with a generational core of spectacular hitters. Andrew Benintendi just had the highest OPS in a PBA season by a player not named Bryce Harper after he triple slashed .338/.421/.637. Benintndi hit 43 home runs and had 134 RBIs, massive amounts, especially for a center fielder. After dealing with him, Oakland will have to deal with the American League's Home Run and RBI leader, Rafael Devers, who slugged 48 homers, drove in 141, and had the third best OPS in the AL.
Setting up all that production is a guy at the top of the order with a .388 On-Base Percentage and 51 stolen bases. Yoan Moncada has a great swing, great patience, and with pitchers so focused on the bats at the plate, led the league in steals. Moncada is also a doubles machine, finishing second this year with 52.
The small saving grace about going through that lineup is that all three hitters are better against right-handed pitching. Even Chicago's supporting cast features powerful left-handed sluggers. Corey D. Ray, in his first full season as a Major Leaguer cracked 24 home runs with an .854 OPS and could have a long future in Chicago's outfield. After a slow start, Brendan McKay hit .300 or better in three of the final four full months, and he had six home runs in September. The former first round pick has an .825 OPS in his first full year in the big leagues.
Even ninth-place hitter Brett Austin had 15 home runs and an .839 OPS against righties, while hitting just two long balls with a .564 OPS against lefties.
With the exception of Austin, most of Chicago's left-handers and switch-hitters either do okay or really well against lefties too. It's simply the matter of facing an excellent lineup against lefties versus facing a historically explosive lineup against righties.
After all, from the right side of the plate Chicago will bring Alfredo Despaigne, who had 32 home runs and 117 RBIs this year and has a championship from his time in Japan. Also, Tim Anderson had his best power year with 22 home runs and 37 doubles, each the highest of his career. Finally, Dansby Swanson has nine home runs and an .855 OPS in his time as a White Sox hitter.
Off the bench, Joe DeCarlo can play the corners and slug a little bit from the right side, while Elijah Dilday hit .310 in 175 Plate Appearances. Should there be an injury, Tim Anderson can leave the DH spot and fill in badly at several positions.
In terms of Zone Rating, Oakland doesn't have a single position in the top or bottom eight, as they're a very average group.
Season Series:
The two teams split the season series, playing six games between a three week period in late June-early July. Benintendi and Devers homered off Jesse Hahn and Eduardo Rodriguez had a strong start as Chicago took the opener. Matt Olson had a two-run home run off Reynaldo Lopez in the eighth inning of the middle game as Brandon Finnegan allowed two runs in 7 innings to get the win. Carlos Martinez was strong in the rubber match as Chicago took the series at home.
In Oakland, Danny Salazar allowed nine runs in 1+ innings as Oakland blasted Chicago in the opener. In the middle game, Finnegan started and Benintendi sat, a combination that led to Chicago scoring only two runs. Matt Olson dunked a fly ball between Brandon Nimmo and Dilday for a walkoff win. After Oakland came back with a three-run eighth to take the lead in a quest for a sweep, DeCarlo hit a ninth inning tying home run off Hendricks before Benintendi hit a two-run blast off Hendricks and Chicago salvaged the final game.
Deciding Questions:
Will Oakland have enough offensive firepower to get to Rodriguez?
Can Oakland's bullpen hold down the White Sox after Finnegan leaves?
If Chicago has the lead, can Law and Zych hold it?
Prediction: Finnegan pitches well but Chicago still scratches more runs off him than Oakland does off Rodriguez. Chicago adds some insurance late. Chicago 6-3