Post by Commissioner Erick on Feb 14, 2019 7:45:28 GMT -5
Cleveland Indians vs Philadelphia Phillies
The Cleveland Indians romped through the American League, broke Oakland's hearts, and blasted Texas in the ALCS to earn their second World Series appearance in five years. Cleveland is the first team in the PBA to earn a second trip to the World Series, and a year after a disappointing season ended with a missed postseason berth are on the brink of a championship. David Springgay has been no stranger to bold moves, giving up an MVP in the prime of his career last season. The Cubs may have that MVP, but the Indians may be the 2020 champion.
The Philadelphia Phillies have no prior playoff experience and are well ahead of schedule. After three 90-loss campaigns, the Phillies roared to a 99-win season. Some young superstars have helped the team this year and in the playoffs, but astute managerial moves and shrewd trading have played an equal part in Philadelphia's ascent.
These two teams with vastly different PBA histories make for a fun contrast and an exciting World Series matchup.
Phillies Hitting versus Indians Pitching:
The big story for the Indians this postseason is how their tertiary starters have fared this postseason. The big story for the Indians in the World Series is how they may not need those guys.
Robbie Ray had two starts where he struck out a bunch of guys and gave up a bunch of home runs. He didn't walk anyone or give up many other hits, so the International League MVP was able to help Cleveland be in a position to win a World Series. Robert Stephenson, meanwhile, had an awful start, a beautiful gem, and two decent performances this postseason. Thanks to Cleveland scoring 27 runs in those four starts, he has a 3-0 playoff record.
Those two starters should be commended, but it's likely the duo gets no more than one combined start in the World Series. That's because Cleveland's pair of twin aces has healed up and is ready to showcase their stuff on the biggest stage.
Corey Kluber returns, and with it Cleveland picks up the American League wins leader and it second best pitcher in terms of ERA. Kluber posted a 19-5 record with a 2.90 ERA, exceptional numbers. Carlos Carrasco's pinpoint control also returns. Carrasco went 14-4 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. They'll join Jose Quintana and his 3.17 FIP, which is second in the AL.
Outside of a rough Game 1 of the ALCS, Quintana has had a solid postseason. He's gone at least 6 innings in each start, and has just four walks in 25.1 innings. He's only struck out 19, and he allowed three home runs in the aforementioned ALCS start, though he's yielded just four in the playoffs. Shockingly, all four of Quintana's postseason home runs have come against left-handed hitters, after allowing just five home runs to lefties in the regular season.
Quintana has allowed an OPS over .700 to lefties twice in his four years so he isn't quite a lefty-stopper. Kluber has pronounced splits against lefties and righties in his career, with lefties tagging him for almost .100 points more of OPS than righties. Carrasco allowed a .750 OPS to lefties this year, with a .664 OPS to righties. The pitchers are still outstanding, but in the World Series, any little edge can make a huge difference. Seven of the eight best hitters Philadelphia employs are left-handed and on paper, they'll match up reasonably with Cleveland's daunting aces.
Philadlephia's offense has carried them in the playoffs, as they've slugged 21 playoff home runs with an .821 OPS. They have a .600 OPS against lefties and a .985 OPS against righties as their extreme left-handed tilt isn't subtle. The left-handed at bats the Phillies have had have largely been against Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, and Chris Sale, which skews things a little bit. After all, Philadelphia battered Sale in Game 5 of the NLCS, and Odubel Herrera hit not just one, but two go-ahead home runs off lefty Adam Liberatore in the NLDS. However, with lefties like Quintana, Tyler Lyons, and Jose Quintana, the Phillies will likely need to produce against the righties who may be rusty off of their injuries.
Philadelphia's core performers have been magnificent in the postseason. Mickey Moniak is having a playoffs for the ages with a 24 hits, five steals in five attempts, and a .407 average in his inaugural postseason run. He's three hits away from Rafael Devers' mark in the 2018 postseason, and Moniak has played in seven fewer games. Moniak's already scored the most runs, and is somehow just nine shy of the career playoff mark for runs.
The 22-year-old is drawing comparisons to Andrew Benintendi and turning into a legend before our eyes.
After a bit of a slow start, Seth Beer came on in the NLCS with a pair of hits in each of his last three games. Beer has five playoff home runs including a huge one against Lester in Game 6 of the NLDS.
Odubel Herrera has a .345 average, 12 RBIs, 12 runs scored, and four huge home runs. All of Herrera's home runs have been game-changers, including a go-ahead three-run home run in the eighth inning of Game 1 of the NLDS, a go-ahead home run in the eighth inning of Game 4 of the NLDS, a go-ahead two-run home run in the fifth inning of Game 3 of the NLDS, and a game-tying ninth inning home run off Bonkers Carrizales in the ninth inning of Game 6 of the NLCS. As a result of his heroics, Herrera has the highest WPA of any playoff hitter.
Only Maikel Franco has really struggled among Philadelphia hitters. That's likely a factor of Franco hitting against so many righties, and the lefties he has faced being world-class. He redeemed himself with the walkoff shot to get the Phillies to the World Series, but he's been vulnerable this postseason and can't be trusted against Cleveland's staff.
Andrew Miller has given up a few runs in the postseason so far, but that's no something Philadelphia can count on. The rest of Cleveland's pen has been exemplary. Carl Edwards Jr. has 12 strikeouts in 6.1 innings, with David Phelps matching his 1.42 ERA. Mark Melancon had a great regular season, and though he allowed two runs in the playoffs, one was after working 2.1 innings.
One thing to note is Cleveland's defense. Against a lefty-heavy lineup, the right side of Cleveland's defense will be important to track. Solarte at second base is a poor defender, while Travis and Stanton are league-average at their positions. For balls hit into the gap, Lewis Brinson is an excellent center fielder with a big arm. Philadelphia may not have a problem getting the amount of hits they're used to, but they may have slightly fewer extra base hits than they would against a team with a poor outfield.
How Philadelphia's explosive lefty bats fare against an elite pitching staff that performs better against righties than lefties will be the key matchup of the series.
Indians Hitting versus Phillies Pitching:
Cleveland's offense is destructive, while Philadelphia's pitching is hit-or-miss. For one thing, Philadelphia's staff is completely right-handed, except for Tony Watson who is the closer, and Tyler DeLoach. This means Philadelphia is very vulnerable to left-handed hitting. Secondly, a number of Philadelphia's pitchers don't inspire much confidence. Luke Weaver had a 4.89 ERA in the regular season and has a 6.91 ERA this postseason. Edgar E. Garcia has a 7.20 ERA this postseason. Luis M. Ramirez has an ERA of 9.00.
As a result, Philadelphia's staff has been very feast-or-famine. Aaron Nola is a generationally effective control arm, with a devastating curveball he can use for strikeouts. It's also a minor miracle every time he completed 5 innings. Sixto Sanchez has been reliable in the postseason, but is also just 22 and hasn't thrown many pitches either. Mike Leake has been able to dart his sinker down and away for strikes all postseason, but had an ERA of 5.00 this year. It's not a bad staff, but can you trust it against a great offense? The optimist will point out how the team has allowed over five runs just twice this postseason against terrific lineups.
Philadelphia's bullpen has its sore spots, but some of its arms are very dependable. Ruben Alanez followed up a terrific regular season with a 2.17 ERA with a great postseason where he has a 2.45 mark. Tyler DeLoach has come into his own in the postseason as a pure lefty specialist. All 22 batters who have faced him in the playoffs have been left-handed and are batting .111 off him. Edubray Ramos has a 1.08 ERA this postseason. Vince Velasquez' postseason ERA is unsightly, but he's worked 4 scoreless innings his last four games after a brutal start to his postseason.
Tony Watson has been the star of the bullpen. After an excellent year with a 2.11 ERA his first year in Philadelphia, he's followed with a wonderful playoffs, going 1-0 with two saves and a 1.08 ERA in 8.1 innings. Aside from a Jeimer Candelario home run in Game 2 of the NLCS, Watson has been virtually unblemished and has endeared himself to Phillies fans.
They'll be facing a lineup whose most dangerous hitter may be like Philadelphia's: a rookie. Evan Skoug was a first round pick in 2017. After a cup-of-coffee early in 2019, Skoug struggled to hit in the majors and even the upper minors. He's had no problems mashing this postseason. Skoug had 35 home runs over the regular season and has six more this postseason. Skoug proves that catching development isn't always linear. He also has proven he's one of the game's bright young stars.
Skoug bats from the left side, one of just two pure left-handed hitters in Cleveland's regular lineup. Cleveland hasn't hit lefties in the postseason, but they've faced very few, with A.J. Puk being the only starter. This portends well for a Cleveland squad with righties who do well against righties. Skoug has six playoff home runs, and fellow lefty-rookie Mike Papi has four more. However, righties Lewis Brinson and J.D. Martinez also have four home runs, showcasing their ability to hit righties as well.
Giancarlo Stanton, who has a career of postseason futility, has been patient this year unlike year's past. While he hasn't hit for a high average, he has nine walks, while switch hitter Yangervis Solarte has a .349 average. Only Sam Travis is really struggling, as he has an OPS of .384. Everyone else has an OPS of .756 or greater. That ability of Cleveland's right-handed hitters to produce against right-handed pitching gives them room for optimism against Philadelphia's staff.
Philadelphia's defense is good on aggregate, though it has some stars and some holes. Moniak and Crawford are terrific on the left side, further allowing the team to limit damage done by right-handed hitters. Max Shrock is rough at second base, and Beer has had trouble adjusting to major league parks in right, giving Cleveland's pull hitters a better-than-average chance at getting hits.
Deciding Questions:
Whether Kluber and Carrasco can return to form and hold Philadelphia's left-handers down may be the deciding question of the series.
Can Mike Leake and Sixto Sanchez continue to produce in the postseason?
Will the bottom of Cleveland's lineup and Nick Castellanos, J.D. Martinez, and Mike Papi continue to produce? If the answer is yes, Cleveland will score a lot of runs.
Prediction: There are so many fascinating matchups. The Phillies matchup as well against Cleveland as a team can hope, and there are questions regarding whether Kluber and Carrasco can join the rotation seamlessly. On the other side, Cleveland's lineup is a killer, but the Phillies have survived tests with the Dodgers and Cubs lineups. Philadelphia's magical season ends with a parade. Phillies in 6.
The Cleveland Indians romped through the American League, broke Oakland's hearts, and blasted Texas in the ALCS to earn their second World Series appearance in five years. Cleveland is the first team in the PBA to earn a second trip to the World Series, and a year after a disappointing season ended with a missed postseason berth are on the brink of a championship. David Springgay has been no stranger to bold moves, giving up an MVP in the prime of his career last season. The Cubs may have that MVP, but the Indians may be the 2020 champion.
The Philadelphia Phillies have no prior playoff experience and are well ahead of schedule. After three 90-loss campaigns, the Phillies roared to a 99-win season. Some young superstars have helped the team this year and in the playoffs, but astute managerial moves and shrewd trading have played an equal part in Philadelphia's ascent.
These two teams with vastly different PBA histories make for a fun contrast and an exciting World Series matchup.
Phillies Hitting versus Indians Pitching:
The big story for the Indians this postseason is how their tertiary starters have fared this postseason. The big story for the Indians in the World Series is how they may not need those guys.
Robbie Ray had two starts where he struck out a bunch of guys and gave up a bunch of home runs. He didn't walk anyone or give up many other hits, so the International League MVP was able to help Cleveland be in a position to win a World Series. Robert Stephenson, meanwhile, had an awful start, a beautiful gem, and two decent performances this postseason. Thanks to Cleveland scoring 27 runs in those four starts, he has a 3-0 playoff record.
Those two starters should be commended, but it's likely the duo gets no more than one combined start in the World Series. That's because Cleveland's pair of twin aces has healed up and is ready to showcase their stuff on the biggest stage.
Corey Kluber returns, and with it Cleveland picks up the American League wins leader and it second best pitcher in terms of ERA. Kluber posted a 19-5 record with a 2.90 ERA, exceptional numbers. Carlos Carrasco's pinpoint control also returns. Carrasco went 14-4 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. They'll join Jose Quintana and his 3.17 FIP, which is second in the AL.
Outside of a rough Game 1 of the ALCS, Quintana has had a solid postseason. He's gone at least 6 innings in each start, and has just four walks in 25.1 innings. He's only struck out 19, and he allowed three home runs in the aforementioned ALCS start, though he's yielded just four in the playoffs. Shockingly, all four of Quintana's postseason home runs have come against left-handed hitters, after allowing just five home runs to lefties in the regular season.
Quintana has allowed an OPS over .700 to lefties twice in his four years so he isn't quite a lefty-stopper. Kluber has pronounced splits against lefties and righties in his career, with lefties tagging him for almost .100 points more of OPS than righties. Carrasco allowed a .750 OPS to lefties this year, with a .664 OPS to righties. The pitchers are still outstanding, but in the World Series, any little edge can make a huge difference. Seven of the eight best hitters Philadelphia employs are left-handed and on paper, they'll match up reasonably with Cleveland's daunting aces.
Philadlephia's offense has carried them in the playoffs, as they've slugged 21 playoff home runs with an .821 OPS. They have a .600 OPS against lefties and a .985 OPS against righties as their extreme left-handed tilt isn't subtle. The left-handed at bats the Phillies have had have largely been against Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, and Chris Sale, which skews things a little bit. After all, Philadelphia battered Sale in Game 5 of the NLCS, and Odubel Herrera hit not just one, but two go-ahead home runs off lefty Adam Liberatore in the NLDS. However, with lefties like Quintana, Tyler Lyons, and Jose Quintana, the Phillies will likely need to produce against the righties who may be rusty off of their injuries.
Philadelphia's core performers have been magnificent in the postseason. Mickey Moniak is having a playoffs for the ages with a 24 hits, five steals in five attempts, and a .407 average in his inaugural postseason run. He's three hits away from Rafael Devers' mark in the 2018 postseason, and Moniak has played in seven fewer games. Moniak's already scored the most runs, and is somehow just nine shy of the career playoff mark for runs.
The 22-year-old is drawing comparisons to Andrew Benintendi and turning into a legend before our eyes.
After a bit of a slow start, Seth Beer came on in the NLCS with a pair of hits in each of his last three games. Beer has five playoff home runs including a huge one against Lester in Game 6 of the NLDS.
Odubel Herrera has a .345 average, 12 RBIs, 12 runs scored, and four huge home runs. All of Herrera's home runs have been game-changers, including a go-ahead three-run home run in the eighth inning of Game 1 of the NLDS, a go-ahead home run in the eighth inning of Game 4 of the NLDS, a go-ahead two-run home run in the fifth inning of Game 3 of the NLDS, and a game-tying ninth inning home run off Bonkers Carrizales in the ninth inning of Game 6 of the NLCS. As a result of his heroics, Herrera has the highest WPA of any playoff hitter.
Only Maikel Franco has really struggled among Philadelphia hitters. That's likely a factor of Franco hitting against so many righties, and the lefties he has faced being world-class. He redeemed himself with the walkoff shot to get the Phillies to the World Series, but he's been vulnerable this postseason and can't be trusted against Cleveland's staff.
Andrew Miller has given up a few runs in the postseason so far, but that's no something Philadelphia can count on. The rest of Cleveland's pen has been exemplary. Carl Edwards Jr. has 12 strikeouts in 6.1 innings, with David Phelps matching his 1.42 ERA. Mark Melancon had a great regular season, and though he allowed two runs in the playoffs, one was after working 2.1 innings.
One thing to note is Cleveland's defense. Against a lefty-heavy lineup, the right side of Cleveland's defense will be important to track. Solarte at second base is a poor defender, while Travis and Stanton are league-average at their positions. For balls hit into the gap, Lewis Brinson is an excellent center fielder with a big arm. Philadelphia may not have a problem getting the amount of hits they're used to, but they may have slightly fewer extra base hits than they would against a team with a poor outfield.
How Philadelphia's explosive lefty bats fare against an elite pitching staff that performs better against righties than lefties will be the key matchup of the series.
Indians Hitting versus Phillies Pitching:
Cleveland's offense is destructive, while Philadelphia's pitching is hit-or-miss. For one thing, Philadelphia's staff is completely right-handed, except for Tony Watson who is the closer, and Tyler DeLoach. This means Philadelphia is very vulnerable to left-handed hitting. Secondly, a number of Philadelphia's pitchers don't inspire much confidence. Luke Weaver had a 4.89 ERA in the regular season and has a 6.91 ERA this postseason. Edgar E. Garcia has a 7.20 ERA this postseason. Luis M. Ramirez has an ERA of 9.00.
As a result, Philadelphia's staff has been very feast-or-famine. Aaron Nola is a generationally effective control arm, with a devastating curveball he can use for strikeouts. It's also a minor miracle every time he completed 5 innings. Sixto Sanchez has been reliable in the postseason, but is also just 22 and hasn't thrown many pitches either. Mike Leake has been able to dart his sinker down and away for strikes all postseason, but had an ERA of 5.00 this year. It's not a bad staff, but can you trust it against a great offense? The optimist will point out how the team has allowed over five runs just twice this postseason against terrific lineups.
Philadelphia's bullpen has its sore spots, but some of its arms are very dependable. Ruben Alanez followed up a terrific regular season with a 2.17 ERA with a great postseason where he has a 2.45 mark. Tyler DeLoach has come into his own in the postseason as a pure lefty specialist. All 22 batters who have faced him in the playoffs have been left-handed and are batting .111 off him. Edubray Ramos has a 1.08 ERA this postseason. Vince Velasquez' postseason ERA is unsightly, but he's worked 4 scoreless innings his last four games after a brutal start to his postseason.
Tony Watson has been the star of the bullpen. After an excellent year with a 2.11 ERA his first year in Philadelphia, he's followed with a wonderful playoffs, going 1-0 with two saves and a 1.08 ERA in 8.1 innings. Aside from a Jeimer Candelario home run in Game 2 of the NLCS, Watson has been virtually unblemished and has endeared himself to Phillies fans.
They'll be facing a lineup whose most dangerous hitter may be like Philadelphia's: a rookie. Evan Skoug was a first round pick in 2017. After a cup-of-coffee early in 2019, Skoug struggled to hit in the majors and even the upper minors. He's had no problems mashing this postseason. Skoug had 35 home runs over the regular season and has six more this postseason. Skoug proves that catching development isn't always linear. He also has proven he's one of the game's bright young stars.
Skoug bats from the left side, one of just two pure left-handed hitters in Cleveland's regular lineup. Cleveland hasn't hit lefties in the postseason, but they've faced very few, with A.J. Puk being the only starter. This portends well for a Cleveland squad with righties who do well against righties. Skoug has six playoff home runs, and fellow lefty-rookie Mike Papi has four more. However, righties Lewis Brinson and J.D. Martinez also have four home runs, showcasing their ability to hit righties as well.
Giancarlo Stanton, who has a career of postseason futility, has been patient this year unlike year's past. While he hasn't hit for a high average, he has nine walks, while switch hitter Yangervis Solarte has a .349 average. Only Sam Travis is really struggling, as he has an OPS of .384. Everyone else has an OPS of .756 or greater. That ability of Cleveland's right-handed hitters to produce against right-handed pitching gives them room for optimism against Philadelphia's staff.
Philadelphia's defense is good on aggregate, though it has some stars and some holes. Moniak and Crawford are terrific on the left side, further allowing the team to limit damage done by right-handed hitters. Max Shrock is rough at second base, and Beer has had trouble adjusting to major league parks in right, giving Cleveland's pull hitters a better-than-average chance at getting hits.
Deciding Questions:
Whether Kluber and Carrasco can return to form and hold Philadelphia's left-handers down may be the deciding question of the series.
Can Mike Leake and Sixto Sanchez continue to produce in the postseason?
Will the bottom of Cleveland's lineup and Nick Castellanos, J.D. Martinez, and Mike Papi continue to produce? If the answer is yes, Cleveland will score a lot of runs.
Prediction: There are so many fascinating matchups. The Phillies matchup as well against Cleveland as a team can hope, and there are questions regarding whether Kluber and Carrasco can join the rotation seamlessly. On the other side, Cleveland's lineup is a killer, but the Phillies have survived tests with the Dodgers and Cubs lineups. Philadelphia's magical season ends with a parade. Phillies in 6.