2021 NL West Preview
Apr 5, 2019 10:00:03 GMT -5
Commissioner Erick, Ben_Dodgers, and 1 more like this
Post by Grubs - Philly on Apr 5, 2019 10:00:03 GMT -5
Lay of the Land
Long one of the PBA’s most active divisions, the NL West had a surprisingly quiet offseason, with Arizona the "big" winner after adding a scant 1.4 WAR. Both Los Angeles and Colorado said goodbye to free agents, as the division appears to be stratifying somewhat as the Sans rebuild.
But a lack of big moves doesn’t belie a lack of activity. Strong farm systems from top to bottom—or rather, bottom to top—mean there’s always action in the NL West. Teams in the division love to poach troublesome roster pieces from each other on the free agent market.
The rise of the Diamondbacks could mean an absolute brawl between NL East and West also-rans for the Wild Card spots. Roll the dice to see who wins this year. I predict the top three teams within 4 games of each other. Here’s one scenario.
1) Arizona
2020: 87-75, .537, 7 GB
Who they were:
The Diamondbacks stayed competitive to almost the very end, but finished a few games short of a Wild Card spot. It seems clear that PBA Ronald Acuña is a shadow of the real-life guy, and Greg Allen stepped up as a solid on-base man and everyday center fielder. Brandon Drury was incredible and appears to have locked down first base. Joey Gallo continued to mash, which is what he’s there for. Pitching was tricky. Lefties Glen Perkins and Zac Rosscup held down the back end of the bullpen. Marco Gonzales cobbled together 14 wins despite a 5.02 ERA (though peripherals suggest a fluke).
The offseason: Arizona’s big move was grabbing SS Isan Diaz from the Reds. He’ll solidify the D’Backs’ middle infield along with, potentially, Yunior Severino at second base. They also picked up Jake Odorizzi on the cheap to round out the rotation. He’s nothing eye-popping, but he’s been solid for San Diego and Arizona expects the same.
The farm: Uber prospect Juan Gestoso turns 20 this year and has a ticket to AA. Severino is in camp and hoping to stick with the squad. CF Quentin Holmes is also having the Spring Training experience.
2021 outlook: The Diamondbacks could be sneaky good. In fact, after initially picking them third and then looking at L.A. and Colorado, the team has a realistic path to the division title. The lineup has done nothing but improve since last spring and with the addition of Diaz, they could put some serious runs on the board. Odorizzi is a steal at $5.5 million and keeps the rotation from having a weak link. They might give up four runs a game, but if they score five…
Questions:
Will Yunior Severino make the squad out of camp, or does his promotion depend more on service time than ability?
If you’re in contention come July, is this the kind of season where you thin the minor league ranks to make a move, or are you inclined to let a good season ride and see where it takes you?
2) Los Angeles
2020: 94-68, .580, Division champs
Who they were:
The Dodgers swiped the title yet again despite some notable underachievers. Jurickson Profar was still an effective on-base option, but his dower declined sharply. Joc Pederson’s power was sapped by a broken thumb. A drop in skill relegated Justin Turner to the minors. Cody Bellinger continued his slide toward average slugger. But Nomar Mazara, Alex Verdugo and a breakout Willie Calhoun are nothing to sneeze at. Plus the Dodgers got great bench performance. Clayton Kershaw continued his dominance and Kenley Jansen was simply incredible for L.A. The Dodgers lost in the NLDS to the Phillies.
The offseason: The Dodgers brought in David Robertson to bolster the bullpen, but let two big outfielders head to free agency, with Joc Pederson going to St. Louis and A.J. Pollock signing with the Orioles. The Dodgers are a whopping $120 million or so under budget and have room to take on contracts if they need to. They could have Mike Trout and like $50-75 million left over to throw around.
The farm: L.A. has been nurturing catchers, and both Keibert Ruiz and Rafael Marchan are close to contributing and in camp this spring. The Dodgers’ other key prospects are in the low minors.
2021 outlook: Calhoun has proven solid at first base, even as Bellinger has continued to slide (granted, from great heights). The Dodgers need Bellinger to step up and Calhoun to stay put. Mazara and Verdugo seem locked in, but Profar’s loss of pop is concerning and the lineup falls off after that. The rotation is a big question mark. Kershaw is great, but Urias is coming off a torn labrum and Maeda has to play like last year’s version of himself instead of 2019. The Dodgers’ bullpen should be much better than years past, and it might have to be. This team could win it all…or finish third in the division.
Questions:
Any chance a rookie catcher makes the squad, or do you plan on seasoning Ruiz and Marchan until it’s time to bid adieu to Yasmani Grandal?
If the season starts to get away from you would you deal a big bat to get a starter or pieces for next year? Or would you rather lock it down and hope for a turnaround?
Say things go the other way and you race to the front of the division, what gets you there?
3) Colorado Rockies
2020: 92-70, .568, 2 GB, Wild Card (2nd)
Who they were: The Rockies bashed their way into the playoffs yet again, but couldn’t flash the same kind of magic that they did in 2019 and fell to the Nationals in the Wild Card game. Michael Fulmer had a great season and Peter Lambert flashed brilliance, and the bullpen was more than solid. But the rotation was weak at the back end. The lineup, on the other hand, was impressive. Nolan Arenado quietly had a career year and 1B Josh Ockimey exploded with a defining season. Carlos Gonzalez seemed rejuvenated and David Dahl grew. Raimel Tapia was a disappointment after succumbing to two injuries, but the talent is still there.
The offseason: Colorado watched Patrick Corbin and Corey Dickerson leave, with Dickerson getting picked up by the Giants and looking to exact revenge. Robertson is now with LA.
The farm: Both 2B Alec Sanchez and SP Eric Pardinho are at AA. Pardinho is particularly interesting, as it looks as though he’s been parkinho’ed in the international complex until this year to save service time. He’s just 20. Luis Picon, 3B, is intriguing in the low minors.
2021 outlook: The Rockies have perhaps the deepest lineup in the division. For this to be their year, Charlie Blackmon and Gonzalez have to continue to produce. Tapia, already sporting an injury this spring, needs to stay healthy. But if those pieces fall into place, they’re strong at catcher and really only lack a 2B/SS starter. It’s pitching that will do the Rockies in. Michael Fulmer is unquestionably good, and Riley Pint has a ton of unproven potential. Peter Lambert’s continued success is vital at the tender age of 23. After that, Jon Gray needs to pitch less like Macy Gray and Danny Duffy could be the worst starter in the league. Colorado’s bullpen doesn’t look good enough to rescue all those games that get away early, but last year showed it can hold its own if everything comes together.
Questions:
Travis Demeritte is out at second and you’ve slotted in Story there right now. How much does this spot—or shortstop—worry you?
Eric Pardinho could potentially start for you this year, which would be quite an ascent. Would you consider it if you get past the Super 2 date and the division is a horserace?
You re-signed Steven Souza, Jr. and he’s played well for you in a bench role. Any thought to playing him more and resting Tapia, or is it a ride-him-till-he-bucks-you situation with Tapia?
4) San Diego
2020: 77-85, .475, 17 GB
Who they were:
The Padres hoped for better. They had strong table setting from Luis Urias and Allen Cordoba, who have developed into one of the best hitting middle infields in the PBA. Austin Hedges had the kind of season the team wanted after his breakout 2018 and a lackluster 2019. But Manuel Margot continued his inexplicable slide and high-buck corner infielders Brandon Belt and Jake Lamb were terrible. Pitching was better, with solid performances from much of the squad, including Ryan Buchter and a breakout from Lucas Sims. There’s no true closer, but Jose Torres was lights out.
The offseason: The Padres brought in a new hitting coach, Luis Ordaz, which may be their most savvy move. Belt, Lamb and Margot need something to spark the kind of production they’re cashing checks for. They lost Odorizzi to the Diamondbacks.
The farm: Royce Lewis will be 22 this year and his power is starting to show up. It may be a while before he tops double-digit home runs, but doubles and triples should be aplenty. The Padres have a bumper crop of middle infielders, including Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Luis Almanzar. Leodys Taveras could be ready to take a shot at San Diego’s outfield.
2021 outlook: The Padres’ pitching staff makes up in depth what it lacks in stars. Youngster Anderson Espinoza will probably be better and rookie Adrian Morejon, if he makes the team, could be just as good. If Zach Davies continues to improve, the Padres could field a solid rotation. Offense will be the big question as the rebuild continues. If the bats solidify, San Diego could finish .500 or better and zip past Arizona. If not…what’s another year?
Questions:
It’s an embarrassment of riches at shortstop for you. Do you have a mind to spread out the youngsters to other infield positions, or try to leverage their potential on the trade market?
Brandon Belt made a strong case for the PBA’s most disappointing player last year. If he stumbles early, do you bench him in his final season or let it ride and hope his experience sparks a turnaround?
5) San Francisco
2020: 65-97, .401, 29 GB
Who they were:
The Giants fielded a team last year. Technically. This is rebuilding mode at its most difficult. Only one hitter was above replacement value—but Buster Posey played just 18 games. Steven Duggar wasn’t worse, but he wasn’t better than 2019, either. Shane Benes was a bright spot at second base after a mid-season summons from Sacramento and looks to have cemented an everyday job. Pitching was better, especially the bullpen. It’s rotten luck that lights-out lefty Masahiko Morifuku is out most of this year with a UCL tear.
The offseason: The Giants did the offseason on the cheap, picking up Corey Dickerson for some veteran experience and claiming speedster Billy Hamilton off waivers. A trade sent veteran Ty Blach out, but brought in Cobi Johnson to take his place in the rotation.
The farm: Pitcher Justin Marsden is lurking. With the rebuild in progress, there’s no real motivation to get him up as soon as possible, but at 24, he’s not a kid anymore and the Giants risk angering the future of their organization if they keep him down. With potentially dominant off-speed stuff, he could start on a lot of PBA clubs. Jo Adell provides outfield promise. Pitchers Braxton Garrett and newly acquired Cobi Johnson could get some coveted big league experience this year.
2021 outlook: There’s no questioning this is a rebuilding year for the Giants. There are a handful of young players like Johnson, Benes and RF Will Benson who could step up and surprise. It’s going to be hard to compete, though.
Questions:
Buster Posey still grades out as elite, but spent much of last year trying to keep his body in playing shape. With two years at more than $21,000,000 annually, will you look to move him, or keep the legend in town and weigh the team option next season?
Benson should be a lot better. What are you expecting to see from him in what could be his first full year in the PBA?
What’s your expectation for your starters this year? Who seems ready to step up? Any chance Drew Pomeranz gets another crack?
Long one of the PBA’s most active divisions, the NL West had a surprisingly quiet offseason, with Arizona the "big" winner after adding a scant 1.4 WAR. Both Los Angeles and Colorado said goodbye to free agents, as the division appears to be stratifying somewhat as the Sans rebuild.
But a lack of big moves doesn’t belie a lack of activity. Strong farm systems from top to bottom—or rather, bottom to top—mean there’s always action in the NL West. Teams in the division love to poach troublesome roster pieces from each other on the free agent market.
The rise of the Diamondbacks could mean an absolute brawl between NL East and West also-rans for the Wild Card spots. Roll the dice to see who wins this year. I predict the top three teams within 4 games of each other. Here’s one scenario.
1) Arizona
2020: 87-75, .537, 7 GB
Who they were:
The Diamondbacks stayed competitive to almost the very end, but finished a few games short of a Wild Card spot. It seems clear that PBA Ronald Acuña is a shadow of the real-life guy, and Greg Allen stepped up as a solid on-base man and everyday center fielder. Brandon Drury was incredible and appears to have locked down first base. Joey Gallo continued to mash, which is what he’s there for. Pitching was tricky. Lefties Glen Perkins and Zac Rosscup held down the back end of the bullpen. Marco Gonzales cobbled together 14 wins despite a 5.02 ERA (though peripherals suggest a fluke).
The offseason: Arizona’s big move was grabbing SS Isan Diaz from the Reds. He’ll solidify the D’Backs’ middle infield along with, potentially, Yunior Severino at second base. They also picked up Jake Odorizzi on the cheap to round out the rotation. He’s nothing eye-popping, but he’s been solid for San Diego and Arizona expects the same.
The farm: Uber prospect Juan Gestoso turns 20 this year and has a ticket to AA. Severino is in camp and hoping to stick with the squad. CF Quentin Holmes is also having the Spring Training experience.
2021 outlook: The Diamondbacks could be sneaky good. In fact, after initially picking them third and then looking at L.A. and Colorado, the team has a realistic path to the division title. The lineup has done nothing but improve since last spring and with the addition of Diaz, they could put some serious runs on the board. Odorizzi is a steal at $5.5 million and keeps the rotation from having a weak link. They might give up four runs a game, but if they score five…
Questions:
Will Yunior Severino make the squad out of camp, or does his promotion depend more on service time than ability?
If you’re in contention come July, is this the kind of season where you thin the minor league ranks to make a move, or are you inclined to let a good season ride and see where it takes you?
2) Los Angeles
2020: 94-68, .580, Division champs
Who they were:
The Dodgers swiped the title yet again despite some notable underachievers. Jurickson Profar was still an effective on-base option, but his dower declined sharply. Joc Pederson’s power was sapped by a broken thumb. A drop in skill relegated Justin Turner to the minors. Cody Bellinger continued his slide toward average slugger. But Nomar Mazara, Alex Verdugo and a breakout Willie Calhoun are nothing to sneeze at. Plus the Dodgers got great bench performance. Clayton Kershaw continued his dominance and Kenley Jansen was simply incredible for L.A. The Dodgers lost in the NLDS to the Phillies.
The offseason: The Dodgers brought in David Robertson to bolster the bullpen, but let two big outfielders head to free agency, with Joc Pederson going to St. Louis and A.J. Pollock signing with the Orioles. The Dodgers are a whopping $120 million or so under budget and have room to take on contracts if they need to. They could have Mike Trout and like $50-75 million left over to throw around.
The farm: L.A. has been nurturing catchers, and both Keibert Ruiz and Rafael Marchan are close to contributing and in camp this spring. The Dodgers’ other key prospects are in the low minors.
2021 outlook: Calhoun has proven solid at first base, even as Bellinger has continued to slide (granted, from great heights). The Dodgers need Bellinger to step up and Calhoun to stay put. Mazara and Verdugo seem locked in, but Profar’s loss of pop is concerning and the lineup falls off after that. The rotation is a big question mark. Kershaw is great, but Urias is coming off a torn labrum and Maeda has to play like last year’s version of himself instead of 2019. The Dodgers’ bullpen should be much better than years past, and it might have to be. This team could win it all…or finish third in the division.
Questions:
Any chance a rookie catcher makes the squad, or do you plan on seasoning Ruiz and Marchan until it’s time to bid adieu to Yasmani Grandal?
If the season starts to get away from you would you deal a big bat to get a starter or pieces for next year? Or would you rather lock it down and hope for a turnaround?
Say things go the other way and you race to the front of the division, what gets you there?
3) Colorado Rockies
2020: 92-70, .568, 2 GB, Wild Card (2nd)
Who they were: The Rockies bashed their way into the playoffs yet again, but couldn’t flash the same kind of magic that they did in 2019 and fell to the Nationals in the Wild Card game. Michael Fulmer had a great season and Peter Lambert flashed brilliance, and the bullpen was more than solid. But the rotation was weak at the back end. The lineup, on the other hand, was impressive. Nolan Arenado quietly had a career year and 1B Josh Ockimey exploded with a defining season. Carlos Gonzalez seemed rejuvenated and David Dahl grew. Raimel Tapia was a disappointment after succumbing to two injuries, but the talent is still there.
The offseason: Colorado watched Patrick Corbin and Corey Dickerson leave, with Dickerson getting picked up by the Giants and looking to exact revenge. Robertson is now with LA.
The farm: Both 2B Alec Sanchez and SP Eric Pardinho are at AA. Pardinho is particularly interesting, as it looks as though he’s been parkinho’ed in the international complex until this year to save service time. He’s just 20. Luis Picon, 3B, is intriguing in the low minors.
2021 outlook: The Rockies have perhaps the deepest lineup in the division. For this to be their year, Charlie Blackmon and Gonzalez have to continue to produce. Tapia, already sporting an injury this spring, needs to stay healthy. But if those pieces fall into place, they’re strong at catcher and really only lack a 2B/SS starter. It’s pitching that will do the Rockies in. Michael Fulmer is unquestionably good, and Riley Pint has a ton of unproven potential. Peter Lambert’s continued success is vital at the tender age of 23. After that, Jon Gray needs to pitch less like Macy Gray and Danny Duffy could be the worst starter in the league. Colorado’s bullpen doesn’t look good enough to rescue all those games that get away early, but last year showed it can hold its own if everything comes together.
Questions:
Travis Demeritte is out at second and you’ve slotted in Story there right now. How much does this spot—or shortstop—worry you?
Eric Pardinho could potentially start for you this year, which would be quite an ascent. Would you consider it if you get past the Super 2 date and the division is a horserace?
You re-signed Steven Souza, Jr. and he’s played well for you in a bench role. Any thought to playing him more and resting Tapia, or is it a ride-him-till-he-bucks-you situation with Tapia?
4) San Diego
2020: 77-85, .475, 17 GB
Who they were:
The Padres hoped for better. They had strong table setting from Luis Urias and Allen Cordoba, who have developed into one of the best hitting middle infields in the PBA. Austin Hedges had the kind of season the team wanted after his breakout 2018 and a lackluster 2019. But Manuel Margot continued his inexplicable slide and high-buck corner infielders Brandon Belt and Jake Lamb were terrible. Pitching was better, with solid performances from much of the squad, including Ryan Buchter and a breakout from Lucas Sims. There’s no true closer, but Jose Torres was lights out.
The offseason: The Padres brought in a new hitting coach, Luis Ordaz, which may be their most savvy move. Belt, Lamb and Margot need something to spark the kind of production they’re cashing checks for. They lost Odorizzi to the Diamondbacks.
The farm: Royce Lewis will be 22 this year and his power is starting to show up. It may be a while before he tops double-digit home runs, but doubles and triples should be aplenty. The Padres have a bumper crop of middle infielders, including Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Luis Almanzar. Leodys Taveras could be ready to take a shot at San Diego’s outfield.
2021 outlook: The Padres’ pitching staff makes up in depth what it lacks in stars. Youngster Anderson Espinoza will probably be better and rookie Adrian Morejon, if he makes the team, could be just as good. If Zach Davies continues to improve, the Padres could field a solid rotation. Offense will be the big question as the rebuild continues. If the bats solidify, San Diego could finish .500 or better and zip past Arizona. If not…what’s another year?
Questions:
It’s an embarrassment of riches at shortstop for you. Do you have a mind to spread out the youngsters to other infield positions, or try to leverage their potential on the trade market?
Brandon Belt made a strong case for the PBA’s most disappointing player last year. If he stumbles early, do you bench him in his final season or let it ride and hope his experience sparks a turnaround?
5) San Francisco
2020: 65-97, .401, 29 GB
Who they were:
The Giants fielded a team last year. Technically. This is rebuilding mode at its most difficult. Only one hitter was above replacement value—but Buster Posey played just 18 games. Steven Duggar wasn’t worse, but he wasn’t better than 2019, either. Shane Benes was a bright spot at second base after a mid-season summons from Sacramento and looks to have cemented an everyday job. Pitching was better, especially the bullpen. It’s rotten luck that lights-out lefty Masahiko Morifuku is out most of this year with a UCL tear.
The offseason: The Giants did the offseason on the cheap, picking up Corey Dickerson for some veteran experience and claiming speedster Billy Hamilton off waivers. A trade sent veteran Ty Blach out, but brought in Cobi Johnson to take his place in the rotation.
The farm: Pitcher Justin Marsden is lurking. With the rebuild in progress, there’s no real motivation to get him up as soon as possible, but at 24, he’s not a kid anymore and the Giants risk angering the future of their organization if they keep him down. With potentially dominant off-speed stuff, he could start on a lot of PBA clubs. Jo Adell provides outfield promise. Pitchers Braxton Garrett and newly acquired Cobi Johnson could get some coveted big league experience this year.
2021 outlook: There’s no questioning this is a rebuilding year for the Giants. There are a handful of young players like Johnson, Benes and RF Will Benson who could step up and surprise. It’s going to be hard to compete, though.
Questions:
Buster Posey still grades out as elite, but spent much of last year trying to keep his body in playing shape. With two years at more than $21,000,000 annually, will you look to move him, or keep the legend in town and weigh the team option next season?
Benson should be a lot better. What are you expecting to see from him in what could be his first full year in the PBA?
What’s your expectation for your starters this year? Who seems ready to step up? Any chance Drew Pomeranz gets another crack?
