Post by Commissioner Erick on Apr 10, 2019 14:12:03 GMT -5
The NL Central is one of the tougher divisions to handicap in the middle. It's possible four of the five teams are worse than last year, and Pittsburgh' financial issues throw a huge wrench into any prediction about where they will finish up. The Cubs are still the class of the division, the Reds are still rebuilding, and any scenario involving the other three teams wouldn't be too surprising.
1) Chicago Cubs
2020: 112-50, NL Central Champion. Defeated Washington 4-0 in the NLDS. Lost to Philadelphia 4-2 in NLCS.
Who They Were: The Cubs won the same 112 games a year prior, but had the best batting average and ERA in team history, plus they had their highest Pythagorean Record in team history. They scored the most runs with the highest OPS in the league and had the best ERA in the league as well. They fielded nine All Stars with a juggernaut roster led by MVP Runner Up Francisco Lindor. Unfortunately, Chris Sale continued a history of ghastly postseason appearances and Kris Bryant went 4-27 with 15 strikeouts in the NLCS, and the Cubs finished shy of the World Series for the second consecutive year.
Offseason Review: The Cubs lost a significant number of back-end depth pieces to their bullpen, a quality arm in Jon Lester, plus Justin Upton, Albert Almora, and Andrew McCutchen go from their outfield. Zach Britton is quality addition to the pen to make up for the loss of quantity, while Yoenis Cespedes will take an outfield spot. Mark Zagunis' historic postseason run will give him an outfield spot, while a cast of youngsters will compete to man center field, but are they an upgrade on what they lost? Bonkers Carrizales is attempting to transition to the starting rotation, but can he make the transition, and will the depleted bullpen miss him? Chris Tillman is back from an excellent tour of Japan, but can he get big league hitters out? There are a lot of questions for such a juggernaut of a team.
Best Case Scenario: The team stays healthy and doesn't need to dip into a too-young cast of depth pieces. Chris Sale finally has a strong postseason and the Cubs punctuate their great regular seasons with a title.
Worst Case Scenario: Another disappointing Chris Sale postseason
Key Questions: You had some budget issues this offseason, which impacted how you approached the offseason. Are you concerned with having so little depth?
You lost a lot of good arms off a dominant pitching staff. How confident are you that the rearranged pieces are good enough to get you a championship?
2) Milwaukee Brewers
2020: 79-83, 3rd Place NL Central
Who They Were: The Brewers surprisingly had the best average in the NL, but they had the second worst ERA. Some of the ERA struggles were the result of injury and a four-man rotation, but it was clear the Brewers didn't have a top-notch staff. Lourdes Gurriel solidified himself as a top-notch two-way player in his first full season as a starter.
Offseason Review: The Brewers upgraded their pitching staff, bringing in Taijuan Walker and Jeff Samardzija to fill a position of major need. Milwaukee had awful corner outfield defense last year. Albert Almora coming aboard will push Charlie Tilson to right, improving both positions defensively. There are still concerns regarding whether there's enough high end talent on the roster to matter, but Vic Black did a solid job focusing on areas of the biggest need.
On the Farm: It's a pretty talented system, but all the best players are in the very low minors. Kadeem Headspeth was a 2nd round pick last year who can make a jump into Milwaukee's bullpen later this season. Matt Anderson has won numerous minor league awards, but wasn't able to crack the majors with Cleveland. He could give Milwaukee some innings this year, as can former Marlin Jacob Faria. In summary, there's some pitching depth in the minors, but if Milwaukee wants to make a push, they can swing a deal using some of their low-minors capital.
Best Case Scenario: The pitching staff is a plus, A.J. Reed hits 35 home runs and the Brewers win 85 games.
Worst Case Scenario: The pitching staff isn't all that good, the bullpen falls apart, and there aren't many position players that pop on the way to a 74-88 campaign. There's significant downside potential here.
Key Questions: You're relying a lot on players who haven't had more than one season with an OPS above .750. For the players who had career seasons last year, how sustainable do you think those seasons were? I'm mainly referring to Mauricio Dubon, Eliezer Alvarez, and A.J. Reed.
According to his picture, Jorge Lopez looks somewhat reptilian, but also without pigment on a side of his face. Is everything okay with him?
3) St. Louis Cardinals
2020: 59-103, Last Place NL Central
Offseason Review: The Cardinals spent money this offseason, bringing in Dallas Keuchel, Joc Pederson, Justin Wilson and Tyler Lyons in Free Agency, plus they acquired Jonathan Schoop in a trade. Lyons and Wilson will shore up the pen, Keuchel adds to a pretty strong rotation and Pederson gives the team an impact bat it sorely lacked. Whether or not that's enough to make up for a dearth of high impact position players is still up in the air. Despite the Cardinals fielding a 103-loss team last year, they picked up the second most WAR this offseason, which is a cause for mild optimism.
On the Farm: Based on last season's evaluations, the Cardinals rank 8th OSA's system rankings with some very high end talent. Kumar Rocker has frontline potential is no more than a year away, while Dong-Chan Kwak could be even better but is years of development away. Nick Pratto didn't hit in Double A last year but stardom is projected for him. He's likely on the same timeline as Rocker. The Cardinals also have several impact relievers working their way through the upper minors and several extreme risk, extreme reward prospects way down in the low minors as they work on replenishing their talent pool.
Best Case Scenario: The team should pitch. If the bats come around the Cards could undergo a major transformation and win 78 games.
Worst Case Scenario: Josh Donaldson is no longer an All-Star caliber hitter.
Key Questions: You brought about several impact players. What was the strategy there considering you lost over 100 games last year?
Not including the World Baseball Classic, Jonathan Schoop has had a rough go of it the last few years, with the Cardinals being his fifth team in three seasons. What did you see in him to bring him on board, or was he just greasing the wheels to allow your team to dump Dexter Fowler?
4) Pittsburgh Pirates
2020: 85-77, 2nd Place NL Central
Who They Were: The Pittsburgh Pirates once again built a team heavy on contact and low on power, riding that strategy to a third winning record in four years. The Pirates were third in the league in fewest runs allowed. However, a lack of power put a ceiling on their team, and a strong NL Central left them out of the postseason for the third year in a row.
Offseason Review: This section is tough to analyze as the Pirates have mandates to slash their spending. They lost a useful starter in Clay Holmes and a terrific reliever in Justin Wilson, and added very little in free agency. More changes may be coming, so it's likely that a currently talented roster will be weakened going forward.
On the Farm: The Pirates farm system is barren, especially in the upper minors. Will Banfield could be a strong offensive catcher, but he's not close to the majors.
Best Case Scenario: The Pirates don't tear down, suffer the financial penalties for 2022, and ride pitching and a huge season from Josh Bell to make the second Wild Card.
Worst Case Scenario: The Pirates enter a rebuild and lose 90 games.
Key Questions: With the season coming up soon, what's the tenor with going for it or shedding salary? You're in a weird situation with a talented roster and without a robust farm, and with major financial restrictions this season.
You have so many useful middle infielders. Who makes the team and who starts and why?
5) Cincinnati Reds
2020: 62-100, 4th Place NL Central
Who They Were: After disastrously trading Brandon Finnegan and Aristedes Aquino for Skye Bolt and a draft pick, the Reds put together the worst pitching staff in the National League. They had some home run power, but didn't have enough else to be competitive.
Offseason Review: The Reds continued to try and rebuild while stuck with severe budget shortfalls. Isan Diaz was flipped for Robert Acuna, lottery tickets and draft picks, Jason Heyward was swapped for Jose de Leon and prospects, and Rasiel Iglesias was sent packing to save cash. The team hopes to rehabilitate Corey Seager and George Springer, and former Rockies Chad Bettis and Patrick Corbin were brought in to be cheap options for the back of the rotation.
On the Farm: Xavier Edwards can likely already play big league quality defense at shortstop, while Victor Ruiz' power potential forms a left side of the diamond the Reds can dream on. Josh Carlson, whose nickname is "Mad Bum" due to his lefty dominance at Ohio State doesn't need to much development time in the minors. Ben Ramirez is the best player in the upper minors as his speed, glove, and patience add up to a solid if unspectacular player.
Best Case Scenario: The veterans play well enough to be traded and to lose fewer than 100 games.
Worst Case Scenario: Acuna doesn't develop and the Reds are the worst team in baseball.
Key Questions: You have a lot of veterans who aren't stars but make decent money after this season. Why spend so much money on veterans?
Ronald Acuna had a pretty good year in 2019 as a 21-year-old, but really struggled last season. What do you see in his future for you?
1) Chicago Cubs
2020: 112-50, NL Central Champion. Defeated Washington 4-0 in the NLDS. Lost to Philadelphia 4-2 in NLCS.
Who They Were: The Cubs won the same 112 games a year prior, but had the best batting average and ERA in team history, plus they had their highest Pythagorean Record in team history. They scored the most runs with the highest OPS in the league and had the best ERA in the league as well. They fielded nine All Stars with a juggernaut roster led by MVP Runner Up Francisco Lindor. Unfortunately, Chris Sale continued a history of ghastly postseason appearances and Kris Bryant went 4-27 with 15 strikeouts in the NLCS, and the Cubs finished shy of the World Series for the second consecutive year.
Offseason Review: The Cubs lost a significant number of back-end depth pieces to their bullpen, a quality arm in Jon Lester, plus Justin Upton, Albert Almora, and Andrew McCutchen go from their outfield. Zach Britton is quality addition to the pen to make up for the loss of quantity, while Yoenis Cespedes will take an outfield spot. Mark Zagunis' historic postseason run will give him an outfield spot, while a cast of youngsters will compete to man center field, but are they an upgrade on what they lost? Bonkers Carrizales is attempting to transition to the starting rotation, but can he make the transition, and will the depleted bullpen miss him? Chris Tillman is back from an excellent tour of Japan, but can he get big league hitters out? There are a lot of questions for such a juggernaut of a team.
Best Case Scenario: The team stays healthy and doesn't need to dip into a too-young cast of depth pieces. Chris Sale finally has a strong postseason and the Cubs punctuate their great regular seasons with a title.
Worst Case Scenario: Another disappointing Chris Sale postseason
Key Questions: You had some budget issues this offseason, which impacted how you approached the offseason. Are you concerned with having so little depth?
You lost a lot of good arms off a dominant pitching staff. How confident are you that the rearranged pieces are good enough to get you a championship?
2) Milwaukee Brewers
2020: 79-83, 3rd Place NL Central
Who They Were: The Brewers surprisingly had the best average in the NL, but they had the second worst ERA. Some of the ERA struggles were the result of injury and a four-man rotation, but it was clear the Brewers didn't have a top-notch staff. Lourdes Gurriel solidified himself as a top-notch two-way player in his first full season as a starter.
Offseason Review: The Brewers upgraded their pitching staff, bringing in Taijuan Walker and Jeff Samardzija to fill a position of major need. Milwaukee had awful corner outfield defense last year. Albert Almora coming aboard will push Charlie Tilson to right, improving both positions defensively. There are still concerns regarding whether there's enough high end talent on the roster to matter, but Vic Black did a solid job focusing on areas of the biggest need.
On the Farm: It's a pretty talented system, but all the best players are in the very low minors. Kadeem Headspeth was a 2nd round pick last year who can make a jump into Milwaukee's bullpen later this season. Matt Anderson has won numerous minor league awards, but wasn't able to crack the majors with Cleveland. He could give Milwaukee some innings this year, as can former Marlin Jacob Faria. In summary, there's some pitching depth in the minors, but if Milwaukee wants to make a push, they can swing a deal using some of their low-minors capital.
Best Case Scenario: The pitching staff is a plus, A.J. Reed hits 35 home runs and the Brewers win 85 games.
Worst Case Scenario: The pitching staff isn't all that good, the bullpen falls apart, and there aren't many position players that pop on the way to a 74-88 campaign. There's significant downside potential here.
Key Questions: You're relying a lot on players who haven't had more than one season with an OPS above .750. For the players who had career seasons last year, how sustainable do you think those seasons were? I'm mainly referring to Mauricio Dubon, Eliezer Alvarez, and A.J. Reed.
According to his picture, Jorge Lopez looks somewhat reptilian, but also without pigment on a side of his face. Is everything okay with him?
3) St. Louis Cardinals
2020: 59-103, Last Place NL Central
Offseason Review: The Cardinals spent money this offseason, bringing in Dallas Keuchel, Joc Pederson, Justin Wilson and Tyler Lyons in Free Agency, plus they acquired Jonathan Schoop in a trade. Lyons and Wilson will shore up the pen, Keuchel adds to a pretty strong rotation and Pederson gives the team an impact bat it sorely lacked. Whether or not that's enough to make up for a dearth of high impact position players is still up in the air. Despite the Cardinals fielding a 103-loss team last year, they picked up the second most WAR this offseason, which is a cause for mild optimism.
On the Farm: Based on last season's evaluations, the Cardinals rank 8th OSA's system rankings with some very high end talent. Kumar Rocker has frontline potential is no more than a year away, while Dong-Chan Kwak could be even better but is years of development away. Nick Pratto didn't hit in Double A last year but stardom is projected for him. He's likely on the same timeline as Rocker. The Cardinals also have several impact relievers working their way through the upper minors and several extreme risk, extreme reward prospects way down in the low minors as they work on replenishing their talent pool.
Best Case Scenario: The team should pitch. If the bats come around the Cards could undergo a major transformation and win 78 games.
Worst Case Scenario: Josh Donaldson is no longer an All-Star caliber hitter.
Key Questions: You brought about several impact players. What was the strategy there considering you lost over 100 games last year?
Not including the World Baseball Classic, Jonathan Schoop has had a rough go of it the last few years, with the Cardinals being his fifth team in three seasons. What did you see in him to bring him on board, or was he just greasing the wheels to allow your team to dump Dexter Fowler?
4) Pittsburgh Pirates
2020: 85-77, 2nd Place NL Central
Who They Were: The Pittsburgh Pirates once again built a team heavy on contact and low on power, riding that strategy to a third winning record in four years. The Pirates were third in the league in fewest runs allowed. However, a lack of power put a ceiling on their team, and a strong NL Central left them out of the postseason for the third year in a row.
Offseason Review: This section is tough to analyze as the Pirates have mandates to slash their spending. They lost a useful starter in Clay Holmes and a terrific reliever in Justin Wilson, and added very little in free agency. More changes may be coming, so it's likely that a currently talented roster will be weakened going forward.
On the Farm: The Pirates farm system is barren, especially in the upper minors. Will Banfield could be a strong offensive catcher, but he's not close to the majors.
Best Case Scenario: The Pirates don't tear down, suffer the financial penalties for 2022, and ride pitching and a huge season from Josh Bell to make the second Wild Card.
Worst Case Scenario: The Pirates enter a rebuild and lose 90 games.
Key Questions: With the season coming up soon, what's the tenor with going for it or shedding salary? You're in a weird situation with a talented roster and without a robust farm, and with major financial restrictions this season.
You have so many useful middle infielders. Who makes the team and who starts and why?
5) Cincinnati Reds
2020: 62-100, 4th Place NL Central
Who They Were: After disastrously trading Brandon Finnegan and Aristedes Aquino for Skye Bolt and a draft pick, the Reds put together the worst pitching staff in the National League. They had some home run power, but didn't have enough else to be competitive.
Offseason Review: The Reds continued to try and rebuild while stuck with severe budget shortfalls. Isan Diaz was flipped for Robert Acuna, lottery tickets and draft picks, Jason Heyward was swapped for Jose de Leon and prospects, and Rasiel Iglesias was sent packing to save cash. The team hopes to rehabilitate Corey Seager and George Springer, and former Rockies Chad Bettis and Patrick Corbin were brought in to be cheap options for the back of the rotation.
On the Farm: Xavier Edwards can likely already play big league quality defense at shortstop, while Victor Ruiz' power potential forms a left side of the diamond the Reds can dream on. Josh Carlson, whose nickname is "Mad Bum" due to his lefty dominance at Ohio State doesn't need to much development time in the minors. Ben Ramirez is the best player in the upper minors as his speed, glove, and patience add up to a solid if unspectacular player.
Best Case Scenario: The veterans play well enough to be traded and to lose fewer than 100 games.
Worst Case Scenario: Acuna doesn't develop and the Reds are the worst team in baseball.
Key Questions: You have a lot of veterans who aren't stars but make decent money after this season. Why spend so much money on veterans?
Ronald Acuna had a pretty good year in 2019 as a 21-year-old, but really struggled last season. What do you see in his future for you?
