Post by Commissioner Erick on Jun 28, 2019 15:55:11 GMT -5
Detroit Tigers (49-87) @ Chicago White Sox (89-47)
DET: Ryan Castellani (9-15, 5.84)
CHW: Rob Whalen (12-3, 3.19)
With an 8.5 game lead over the Cleveland Indians for the AL Central crown, the rest of September is all about securing the best record in baseball and remaining healthy for the Chicago White Sox.
They'll take on a Detroit Tigers team careening to its third 100-loss season in four years for this edition of The Game of the Week.
Despite a fairly tough closing slate, Chicago is far and away the favorite to clinch the best record in the American League. They lead Tampa Bay by 3.5 games for the best record in baseball, and have a four game set with the Rays to close the month. That series will go a long way to determine Chicago's final placement, but they can help themselves out by beating a Tigers team sitting at 49-87.
Chicago has experimented with a different lineup to close the month, with Yoan Moncada shifting to Designated Hitter, and Ryan Lilliard starting at Second Base. Moncada hasn't had the same extraordinary BABIP as in years past, nor has he hit for the same amount of power. With only nine home runs, no triples, and a 36-point drop in batting average, Moncada's offense has regressed to his lowest OPS since his 2018 rookie year.
Despite that tidbit, there's a lot of good news. One, the White Sox won the World Series that year. Two, even in his less extraordinary state, Moncada is essentially carrying a league-average OPS from a middle-infield position. Three, Moncada's on-base percentage is still a very healthy .364, which is important considering the All-World hitters behind him. Four, while fewer baseballs are leaving the park and are instead banging off the wall, it's resulted in Moncada leading the American League in doubles. Five, Moncada is still a terror on the bases and his 40 steals are 25% more than the second place player in that category.
Moncada has played a strong second base with the best defensive year of his career, and that's allowed him to post a very strong 3.0 WAR this year. He'll have a chance to rest up and remain in better health as a DH with Ryan Lilliard getting some starts.
The former fourth-round pick showed some promise with the bat when he debuted in 2019, but his Triple-A prowess has not translated as well to the majors. Despite being sixth in Career International League on-base percentage, Lilliard has a .313 mark in the majors this year, after a .299 clip last year. What Lilliard generally can do, though the numbers are less rosy on him this year, is provide stellar play up the middle. Lilliard's a hard worker with soft hands and a great arm, and his presence improves the infield defense of the White Sox.
It also pushes Tim Anderson to the bench. Anderson has had a dismal year, hurting his back in March, playing sparingly upon his return, and never settling into much of a rhythm. He has a .668 OPS mainly serving as a DH, with the fifth-worst walk rate in the AL among players with 250 Plate Appearances. He's fielded negative WAR, and since the White Sox lineup is so prolific, his inability to get on base or play acceptable defense cripples his use.
Chicago will face a Tigers club still in the middle of a rebuild. Detroit isn't acquiring long-term assets in free agency and hasn't been able to draft and develop a player in the PBA era. Detroit had a pretty decrepit farm system back in 2017 and several trades to acquire assets that year haven't born fruit.
Detroit acquired the 11 pick in the draft that year, German Marquez, and Ryan Castellani from Colorado for Michael Fulmer. Fulmer has produced at an All-Star clip in Colorado. Castellani has an ERA of 5.84 this year, while Marquez was flipped for a trip of prospects, one of whom, Taylor Rogers, has produced at the big league level as a serviceable reliever. Adam Hall looks like he'll never play in the majors.
Detroit also traded Daniel Norris that year to San Francisco, getting Andrew Suarez, Sandro Fabian, Chris J. Shaw, and the 16th pick of the second round. Norris has had an incredibly erratic career after rupturing his UCL, but the draft pick turned into David Peterson who retired from baseball in 2019. Sandro Fabian hasn't produced above A-Ball, Suarez was flipped for prospects who still haven't made the show, and Chris Shaw has produced -0.9 WAR this year.
Nobody Detroit acquired for the two prospects have turned into difference makers at this level yet. While Detroit's own draft picks that year have shown potential in the minors, and some of the acquired assets have been flipped for prospects that may return value, that's been the problem with rebuilds like this. So many lottery tickets don't pay dividends, and it takes time for the ones that due to pay out.
The system is starting to show promise as it is rated the number 13 system based on evaluations before the season. Plus Detroit is trying to find value where it can. Ian Happ has a .750 OPS as a waiver claim. Tyler Stephenson has 13 home runs as a catcher taken in the Rule V draft. Andrew McCutchen has an .836 OPS for $3.5 million dollars. Matt Carpenter was signed after his qualifying offer expired, and he was flipped for a former third round pick in Luis Ramos.
The Tigers are putting in the work and nailing the right little pieces. With just one player in the lineup with over 20 home runs though, and with just one starter turning in an ERA under 4.91, the team needs to hit on a star or two to return to relevance in the brutal AL Central.
Questions for the GM's:
For Taylor Bettencourt, there are some exciting pieces in your minor leagues. Who on your major league club do you feel can be a driving force on the next good Tigers team?
Tonight's starter, Ryan Castellani, hasn't broken out and looks like merely a serviceable starter at this point. What do you feel he can be long term for you?
Miguel Cabrera was able to turn back the clock last month and winner the Player of the Month Award. After this year he'll effectively have only three years left on his contract. Do you feel he may be tradable then?
For Mike Ball, in the playoffs, who will be your ninth starter on offense. Lilliard? Anderson? Someone else?
Former Mariners castoff Rob Whalen has been terrific for you with a 12-3 record. How has he managed to be so effective?
How many days off will your starters get down the stretch, or will we get you’re A-team playing consistently down the stretch?
TRIVIA: Four Tigers have made the All Star Game. Who are they?
DET: Ryan Castellani (9-15, 5.84)
CHW: Rob Whalen (12-3, 3.19)
With an 8.5 game lead over the Cleveland Indians for the AL Central crown, the rest of September is all about securing the best record in baseball and remaining healthy for the Chicago White Sox.
They'll take on a Detroit Tigers team careening to its third 100-loss season in four years for this edition of The Game of the Week.
Despite a fairly tough closing slate, Chicago is far and away the favorite to clinch the best record in the American League. They lead Tampa Bay by 3.5 games for the best record in baseball, and have a four game set with the Rays to close the month. That series will go a long way to determine Chicago's final placement, but they can help themselves out by beating a Tigers team sitting at 49-87.
Chicago has experimented with a different lineup to close the month, with Yoan Moncada shifting to Designated Hitter, and Ryan Lilliard starting at Second Base. Moncada hasn't had the same extraordinary BABIP as in years past, nor has he hit for the same amount of power. With only nine home runs, no triples, and a 36-point drop in batting average, Moncada's offense has regressed to his lowest OPS since his 2018 rookie year.
Despite that tidbit, there's a lot of good news. One, the White Sox won the World Series that year. Two, even in his less extraordinary state, Moncada is essentially carrying a league-average OPS from a middle-infield position. Three, Moncada's on-base percentage is still a very healthy .364, which is important considering the All-World hitters behind him. Four, while fewer baseballs are leaving the park and are instead banging off the wall, it's resulted in Moncada leading the American League in doubles. Five, Moncada is still a terror on the bases and his 40 steals are 25% more than the second place player in that category.
Moncada has played a strong second base with the best defensive year of his career, and that's allowed him to post a very strong 3.0 WAR this year. He'll have a chance to rest up and remain in better health as a DH with Ryan Lilliard getting some starts.
The former fourth-round pick showed some promise with the bat when he debuted in 2019, but his Triple-A prowess has not translated as well to the majors. Despite being sixth in Career International League on-base percentage, Lilliard has a .313 mark in the majors this year, after a .299 clip last year. What Lilliard generally can do, though the numbers are less rosy on him this year, is provide stellar play up the middle. Lilliard's a hard worker with soft hands and a great arm, and his presence improves the infield defense of the White Sox.
It also pushes Tim Anderson to the bench. Anderson has had a dismal year, hurting his back in March, playing sparingly upon his return, and never settling into much of a rhythm. He has a .668 OPS mainly serving as a DH, with the fifth-worst walk rate in the AL among players with 250 Plate Appearances. He's fielded negative WAR, and since the White Sox lineup is so prolific, his inability to get on base or play acceptable defense cripples his use.
Chicago will face a Tigers club still in the middle of a rebuild. Detroit isn't acquiring long-term assets in free agency and hasn't been able to draft and develop a player in the PBA era. Detroit had a pretty decrepit farm system back in 2017 and several trades to acquire assets that year haven't born fruit.
Detroit acquired the 11 pick in the draft that year, German Marquez, and Ryan Castellani from Colorado for Michael Fulmer. Fulmer has produced at an All-Star clip in Colorado. Castellani has an ERA of 5.84 this year, while Marquez was flipped for a trip of prospects, one of whom, Taylor Rogers, has produced at the big league level as a serviceable reliever. Adam Hall looks like he'll never play in the majors.
Detroit also traded Daniel Norris that year to San Francisco, getting Andrew Suarez, Sandro Fabian, Chris J. Shaw, and the 16th pick of the second round. Norris has had an incredibly erratic career after rupturing his UCL, but the draft pick turned into David Peterson who retired from baseball in 2019. Sandro Fabian hasn't produced above A-Ball, Suarez was flipped for prospects who still haven't made the show, and Chris Shaw has produced -0.9 WAR this year.
Nobody Detroit acquired for the two prospects have turned into difference makers at this level yet. While Detroit's own draft picks that year have shown potential in the minors, and some of the acquired assets have been flipped for prospects that may return value, that's been the problem with rebuilds like this. So many lottery tickets don't pay dividends, and it takes time for the ones that due to pay out.
The system is starting to show promise as it is rated the number 13 system based on evaluations before the season. Plus Detroit is trying to find value where it can. Ian Happ has a .750 OPS as a waiver claim. Tyler Stephenson has 13 home runs as a catcher taken in the Rule V draft. Andrew McCutchen has an .836 OPS for $3.5 million dollars. Matt Carpenter was signed after his qualifying offer expired, and he was flipped for a former third round pick in Luis Ramos.
The Tigers are putting in the work and nailing the right little pieces. With just one player in the lineup with over 20 home runs though, and with just one starter turning in an ERA under 4.91, the team needs to hit on a star or two to return to relevance in the brutal AL Central.
Questions for the GM's:
For Taylor Bettencourt, there are some exciting pieces in your minor leagues. Who on your major league club do you feel can be a driving force on the next good Tigers team?
Tonight's starter, Ryan Castellani, hasn't broken out and looks like merely a serviceable starter at this point. What do you feel he can be long term for you?
Miguel Cabrera was able to turn back the clock last month and winner the Player of the Month Award. After this year he'll effectively have only three years left on his contract. Do you feel he may be tradable then?
For Mike Ball, in the playoffs, who will be your ninth starter on offense. Lilliard? Anderson? Someone else?
Former Mariners castoff Rob Whalen has been terrific for you with a 12-3 record. How has he managed to be so effective?
How many days off will your starters get down the stretch, or will we get you’re A-team playing consistently down the stretch?
TRIVIA: Four Tigers have made the All Star Game. Who are they?
