Post by Commissioner Erick on Jul 10, 2019 21:31:00 GMT -5
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks play the upstart young team, making their first playoff appearance in their history. Philadelphia was in that position a season ago as the charmed young team, but with 92 wins a season after a World Series appearance, they're now part of the establishment in the National League. The Phillies' best all-around player is banged up in the series, leaving the team a little bit vulnerable. However, Arizona has had time to stew after getting shutout by Victor Gonzalez to relegate them to this winner-take-all. The Phillies put their chance at repeating as NL Champions on the line, while an Arizona win may set them up as this year's Philadelphia.
Diamondbacks Offense versus Phillies Pitching
Arizona provides a combination of power and speed that only the Nationals can match. Arizona is tied for third in stolen bases and fifth in runs, leading to the fourth best offense in baseball. Against a probable righty, they'll likely send six lefties to the plate. In that alignment, the team's average stays the same, but the Diamondbacks Isolated Slugging number increases roughly 20 points.
Arizona simply hits slightly better from a power standpoint against righties than lefties, a fact made too obvious in the National League West Playoff when the left-handed Victor Gonzalez shut out the Diamondbacks 1-0.
Eight regulars have at least 17 home runs, while seven have at least 23. Arizona has the same depth there as the top teams. Arizona also has high-end power, as Joey Gallo blasted 52 home runs and drove in 122. What Arizona doesn't have too much of is the high-end slugger who can also get on base at an intense clip. Yunior Severino is close to being that guy, with a .297 average and 23 home runs. Severino has a .302 average and 19 home runs against righties, and just a .229 average against lefties. If he can get a few swings off Kilome, it may be enough to swing the game.
If Arizona needs to be aggressive on the bases to create runs, the team has five guys with double digit steals, and Greg Allen's 41 steals were fourth in baseball. Teams stole successfully on 15 of 16 attempts against Kilome and seven of nine attempts against Luke Weaver, so Allen may be on the move if he gets on base.
Philadelphia hasn't officially named a starter, though it will likely be Franklin Kilome. The righty tied for the Phillies lead in wins with 12, and had the 12th best HR/FB ratio of any National Leaguer who worked at least 100 innings. Kilome was the best pitcher in the International League in 2020 and was a top 100 prospect. His ability to limit home runs would be a boon against Arizona. However, Kilome's walk rate isn't pristine, and his strikeout rate is under 20%. With a profile like that, he'll be very reliant on his defense.
The Phillies had a strong defense everywhere but second best. Mickey Moniak is a Gold Glove candidate, and his injury really saps Philadelphia's range. Odubel Herrera is fine in center, and Scott Kingery is fine in left, but they aren't quite difference makers. Some of Arizona's fly balls may turn into extra base hits with Moniak out on the DL.
Philadelphia's bullpen was one of the worst in the National League. Ryan Buchter graduated to the closer role by putting up his second straight season of an ERA around 2.41. Ian Krol was the only other arm with an ERA under 4.00. Tony Watson has struggled all year, but he has allowed just a .179 average to lefties if he's deployed as a specialist.
This means Philadelphia's bullpen isn't the problem and could do well against Arizona's lefty-laden lineup. However, Arizona isn't a completely one-sided team, and Philadelphia's righties have all struggled. Edubray Ramos has made it a tradition to get booted from a closer's role, as his walk and home run rates spiked this year. Luis M. Ramirez and Ryan Helsey are fine, but each is pitching his first full year this year. Each kept the ball in the park, but only Helsey really struck batters out. Vince Velasquez has 14 injuries logged the past two years.
It's not a very proven bullpen, but the Diamondbacks haven't proven anything in the postseason themselves. It's easy to imagine someone on Arizona getting to one of Philadelphia's righties as the game gets late.
Phillies Offense versus Diamondbacks Pitching
Last season Philadelphia's young, explosive offense catapulted them through the postseason and into the World Series. This year, they'll be missing the catalyst from last year's team, Mickey Moniak, at least for the Wild Card Game. Moniak, the all-time leader in hits and runs in a single postseason, is still recovering from a fractured thumb suffered when he dove to first to beat out an infield single and broke his finger on the bag. Without him, the Phillies will have to replace a guy who had a .302 average and 32 steals.
The team did finish second in runs and first in average so they do have answers. Seth Beer had a massive campaign that saw him break out into a 47-home run monster. Four other Phillies had 22 home runs, with Yordan Alvarez falling one-shy. Odubel Herrera followed up a dazzling 2020 with a .310 average and 22 home runs this year, pacing the team from the second-spot in the order. Critically, Philadelphia also struck lightning in a bottle with Tristan Gray.
The twice-traded first baseman was the NL Rookie of the Month in August and September, as he blasted nine home runs and nine doubles in a torrid final month, after batting .371 in August.
Philadelphia led the league in average against righties and were second in OPS against righties. That success doesn't hold up versus lefties though, where the team is third from the bottom in OPS, thanks to the third worst slugging mark. Yordan Alvarez had 20 home runs and a 854 OPS against righties, and just a single home run and a .483 mark against lefties. Scott Kingery posted an .802 OPS and seven home runs against righties that flips to a .549 number and one home run against lefties. Max Schrock has 13 home runs against righties, but also has just a single home run against lefties. Seth Beer has an OPS above 1.000 against righties, but a more human .770 against lefties.
Even the team's most feared righty hitter, Maikel Franco, has a reverse platoon split. Franco is batting .281 with18 home runs against righties and just .229 with four bombs off lefties. This is an extremely stark platoon split that can be taken advantage of by a team with good left-handed pitching.
That won't be the case against Arizona. The Diamondbacks used their lefty starter, Marco Gonzalez, in the NL West Play-In Game for the Division Crown. That will leave them with four right-handed options to throw at Philadelphia.
Kevin Gausman is the bet to get the start. Gausman had a stellar season, especially considering the final month. He had a 2.30 ERA in September, and a 3.00 ERA in an October start. He was 8-3 with a 3.02 ERA on the road. He's had excellent starts against the Nationals and Dodgers showcasing his ability to dominate good offenses.
However, Gausman allowed an OPS over 100 points higher against lefties than righties. Despite a splitter and a changeup, he throws his fastball up in the zone to set up the tunnels for those pitches. Lefties can see the fastball easier than righties, and they've hit 20 home runs this year off him.
In two starts against the Phillies this year, he allowed nine runs in 9.2 innings, as the Phillies banged out 16 hits. The six runs allowed in Philadelphia June 20 where the third most he allowed all season, and one of the games ahead of it had seven unearned runs charged. The saving grace is that Gausman didn't allow too many extra base hits in those games. Perhaps a little better batted-ball luck can get him to tame the Phillies too.
Arizona's best left-handed reliever, Glen Perkins, is also out for the series after tearing his labrum late in the year. This means Cole Ragans and Zac Rosscup are the lone lefties in the pen. Rosscup is the specialist, and he's good at his job. He faced twice as many lefties as righties and held lefties to a .378 OPS, allowing a .132 average with two walks and 30 strikeouts against. Lefties held a .129 average in 2020 and a .188 mark in 2019.
Expect him to get work in during the game. Just don't use him against righties, where he allowed a .421 on-base mark this year, and a .365 mark last year.
Ragans is a Rule V pick still learning on the job. He allowed a whopping 21 home runs out of the pen this year. Righties had more than 130 points higher OPS than him, but he still allowed 11 home runs to left-handed batters. It's possible Philadelphia's lefty-sluggers can get a charge into a poorly located pitch.
The rest of the pen is a mixed bag. Silvino Bracho had a 4.75 ERA or higher every year before this one. Now he's the closer. Hansel Robles was the closer but he allowed four home runs and 12 runs over 10.2 September and October innings. Both have been brutal against lefties.
Chang-min Shim, Korea's fifth leading pitcher in All-Time Saves, kept the ball in the park and induced seven double plays this year. He might be a better option, but he has a platoon split of his own. Only Pedro Baez lacks stark career platoon splits, but that's cause he's been bombed by everyone over his career.
This is a case where Philadelphia should have the upper hand.
If the Phillies need to go to the bench, Andrew Toles has good wheels and a competent bat. There isn't a major right-handed hitter around in case the Phillies want to pinch hit against Rosscup.
Still, Philadelphia's bats have the advantage against Arizona's pitching. The Diamondbacks can narrow the gap somewhat with their defense. Arizona had the third best zone rating in the league, and get great center field play. If not for Jeren Kendall, Greg Allen would be a Gold Glove winner. He has terrific wheels and can cover a lot of ground in the vast Arizona outfield. Each Arizona position graded out with a positive zone rating, except two, and Ryan Johnson was a very slight under. If Allen shades to right, he can help Johnson catch all the lefty drives that stay in the park.
Season Series
Arizona dominated this matchup, taking six of seven from the Phillies in June. Arizona scored at least four runs every game, at least six runs in five games. Arizona won the first game in extras, coming back from a 5-2 deficit. In the ninth, Greg Allen singled, was bunted over, and came in to score on a Christian Yelich single off Edubray Ramos. In the tenth, Kevin Plawecki had an RBI hit to give Arizona the lead, before Yelich blasted a three-run homer to blow it open.
Arizona won comfortably the next day, for their second straight. The following game, Arizona came back again—this time from a 6-2 deficit. In the ninth, with two outs, Ramirez allowed two straight hits, then two straight walks to allow the go-ahead run to score. Yunior Severino singled in two more and the Phillies were left shellshocked by their third straight loss.
Philadelphia banged out 10 hits off Aaron Blair to salvage the finale of the four game set.
The Diamondbacks hosted Philadelphia roughly a week later. Despite Seth Beer homering and walking four times, Philadelphia's bullpen cost them again, this time on a walkoff home run by Brandon Drury off Ian Krol. Oscar Hernandez had two homers and drove in five in the game. The next day Edgar E. Garcia worked a gem for the Phillies, but their bullpen allowed four runs in the seventh in a 4-3 Diamondbacks win. Isan Diaz's two home runs in the finale allowed Arizona to win a less stressful contest, giving them six wins in seven matchups with Philadelphia.
The series highlighted Philadelphia's bullpen issues against the Diamondbacks, and Arizona's offensive mastery. Joey Gallo, Yunier Severino, and Ryan Johnson were the only regulars who had an OPS under .800, and Johnson was a respectable .739 with a .280 average. Arizona's catchers got on base at a .500 clip with eight RBIs, while Isan Diaz had four home runs. All number of Philadelphia pitchers failed.
Arizona's starters didn't pitch well to Philadelphia, but its bullpen produced a 2.08 ERA. Cole Ragans and Zac Rosscup combined to allow a single run in 7 innings, which is a wonderful sign for Arizona.
Deciding Questions
Without Moniak, will Arizona find success getting extra base hits on fly balls?
Can Cole Ragans perform well out of the bullpen?
Will Philadelphia beat up Arizona's right-handed starter?
Prediction: The Phillies should be able to get some runs on the board, but Arizona won't be scared of a charitable Philadelphia bullpen. There should be a lot of runs on the board late, but the Phillies will miss Moniak on both offense and defense, and they'll blow a lead late. Diamondbacks 8-6
The Arizona Diamondbacks play the upstart young team, making their first playoff appearance in their history. Philadelphia was in that position a season ago as the charmed young team, but with 92 wins a season after a World Series appearance, they're now part of the establishment in the National League. The Phillies' best all-around player is banged up in the series, leaving the team a little bit vulnerable. However, Arizona has had time to stew after getting shutout by Victor Gonzalez to relegate them to this winner-take-all. The Phillies put their chance at repeating as NL Champions on the line, while an Arizona win may set them up as this year's Philadelphia.
Diamondbacks Offense versus Phillies Pitching
Arizona provides a combination of power and speed that only the Nationals can match. Arizona is tied for third in stolen bases and fifth in runs, leading to the fourth best offense in baseball. Against a probable righty, they'll likely send six lefties to the plate. In that alignment, the team's average stays the same, but the Diamondbacks Isolated Slugging number increases roughly 20 points.
Arizona simply hits slightly better from a power standpoint against righties than lefties, a fact made too obvious in the National League West Playoff when the left-handed Victor Gonzalez shut out the Diamondbacks 1-0.
Eight regulars have at least 17 home runs, while seven have at least 23. Arizona has the same depth there as the top teams. Arizona also has high-end power, as Joey Gallo blasted 52 home runs and drove in 122. What Arizona doesn't have too much of is the high-end slugger who can also get on base at an intense clip. Yunior Severino is close to being that guy, with a .297 average and 23 home runs. Severino has a .302 average and 19 home runs against righties, and just a .229 average against lefties. If he can get a few swings off Kilome, it may be enough to swing the game.
If Arizona needs to be aggressive on the bases to create runs, the team has five guys with double digit steals, and Greg Allen's 41 steals were fourth in baseball. Teams stole successfully on 15 of 16 attempts against Kilome and seven of nine attempts against Luke Weaver, so Allen may be on the move if he gets on base.
Philadelphia hasn't officially named a starter, though it will likely be Franklin Kilome. The righty tied for the Phillies lead in wins with 12, and had the 12th best HR/FB ratio of any National Leaguer who worked at least 100 innings. Kilome was the best pitcher in the International League in 2020 and was a top 100 prospect. His ability to limit home runs would be a boon against Arizona. However, Kilome's walk rate isn't pristine, and his strikeout rate is under 20%. With a profile like that, he'll be very reliant on his defense.
The Phillies had a strong defense everywhere but second best. Mickey Moniak is a Gold Glove candidate, and his injury really saps Philadelphia's range. Odubel Herrera is fine in center, and Scott Kingery is fine in left, but they aren't quite difference makers. Some of Arizona's fly balls may turn into extra base hits with Moniak out on the DL.
Philadelphia's bullpen was one of the worst in the National League. Ryan Buchter graduated to the closer role by putting up his second straight season of an ERA around 2.41. Ian Krol was the only other arm with an ERA under 4.00. Tony Watson has struggled all year, but he has allowed just a .179 average to lefties if he's deployed as a specialist.
This means Philadelphia's bullpen isn't the problem and could do well against Arizona's lefty-laden lineup. However, Arizona isn't a completely one-sided team, and Philadelphia's righties have all struggled. Edubray Ramos has made it a tradition to get booted from a closer's role, as his walk and home run rates spiked this year. Luis M. Ramirez and Ryan Helsey are fine, but each is pitching his first full year this year. Each kept the ball in the park, but only Helsey really struck batters out. Vince Velasquez has 14 injuries logged the past two years.
It's not a very proven bullpen, but the Diamondbacks haven't proven anything in the postseason themselves. It's easy to imagine someone on Arizona getting to one of Philadelphia's righties as the game gets late.
Phillies Offense versus Diamondbacks Pitching
Last season Philadelphia's young, explosive offense catapulted them through the postseason and into the World Series. This year, they'll be missing the catalyst from last year's team, Mickey Moniak, at least for the Wild Card Game. Moniak, the all-time leader in hits and runs in a single postseason, is still recovering from a fractured thumb suffered when he dove to first to beat out an infield single and broke his finger on the bag. Without him, the Phillies will have to replace a guy who had a .302 average and 32 steals.
The team did finish second in runs and first in average so they do have answers. Seth Beer had a massive campaign that saw him break out into a 47-home run monster. Four other Phillies had 22 home runs, with Yordan Alvarez falling one-shy. Odubel Herrera followed up a dazzling 2020 with a .310 average and 22 home runs this year, pacing the team from the second-spot in the order. Critically, Philadelphia also struck lightning in a bottle with Tristan Gray.
The twice-traded first baseman was the NL Rookie of the Month in August and September, as he blasted nine home runs and nine doubles in a torrid final month, after batting .371 in August.
Philadelphia led the league in average against righties and were second in OPS against righties. That success doesn't hold up versus lefties though, where the team is third from the bottom in OPS, thanks to the third worst slugging mark. Yordan Alvarez had 20 home runs and a 854 OPS against righties, and just a single home run and a .483 mark against lefties. Scott Kingery posted an .802 OPS and seven home runs against righties that flips to a .549 number and one home run against lefties. Max Schrock has 13 home runs against righties, but also has just a single home run against lefties. Seth Beer has an OPS above 1.000 against righties, but a more human .770 against lefties.
Even the team's most feared righty hitter, Maikel Franco, has a reverse platoon split. Franco is batting .281 with18 home runs against righties and just .229 with four bombs off lefties. This is an extremely stark platoon split that can be taken advantage of by a team with good left-handed pitching.
That won't be the case against Arizona. The Diamondbacks used their lefty starter, Marco Gonzalez, in the NL West Play-In Game for the Division Crown. That will leave them with four right-handed options to throw at Philadelphia.
Kevin Gausman is the bet to get the start. Gausman had a stellar season, especially considering the final month. He had a 2.30 ERA in September, and a 3.00 ERA in an October start. He was 8-3 with a 3.02 ERA on the road. He's had excellent starts against the Nationals and Dodgers showcasing his ability to dominate good offenses.
However, Gausman allowed an OPS over 100 points higher against lefties than righties. Despite a splitter and a changeup, he throws his fastball up in the zone to set up the tunnels for those pitches. Lefties can see the fastball easier than righties, and they've hit 20 home runs this year off him.
In two starts against the Phillies this year, he allowed nine runs in 9.2 innings, as the Phillies banged out 16 hits. The six runs allowed in Philadelphia June 20 where the third most he allowed all season, and one of the games ahead of it had seven unearned runs charged. The saving grace is that Gausman didn't allow too many extra base hits in those games. Perhaps a little better batted-ball luck can get him to tame the Phillies too.
Arizona's best left-handed reliever, Glen Perkins, is also out for the series after tearing his labrum late in the year. This means Cole Ragans and Zac Rosscup are the lone lefties in the pen. Rosscup is the specialist, and he's good at his job. He faced twice as many lefties as righties and held lefties to a .378 OPS, allowing a .132 average with two walks and 30 strikeouts against. Lefties held a .129 average in 2020 and a .188 mark in 2019.
Expect him to get work in during the game. Just don't use him against righties, where he allowed a .421 on-base mark this year, and a .365 mark last year.
Ragans is a Rule V pick still learning on the job. He allowed a whopping 21 home runs out of the pen this year. Righties had more than 130 points higher OPS than him, but he still allowed 11 home runs to left-handed batters. It's possible Philadelphia's lefty-sluggers can get a charge into a poorly located pitch.
The rest of the pen is a mixed bag. Silvino Bracho had a 4.75 ERA or higher every year before this one. Now he's the closer. Hansel Robles was the closer but he allowed four home runs and 12 runs over 10.2 September and October innings. Both have been brutal against lefties.
Chang-min Shim, Korea's fifth leading pitcher in All-Time Saves, kept the ball in the park and induced seven double plays this year. He might be a better option, but he has a platoon split of his own. Only Pedro Baez lacks stark career platoon splits, but that's cause he's been bombed by everyone over his career.
This is a case where Philadelphia should have the upper hand.
If the Phillies need to go to the bench, Andrew Toles has good wheels and a competent bat. There isn't a major right-handed hitter around in case the Phillies want to pinch hit against Rosscup.
Still, Philadelphia's bats have the advantage against Arizona's pitching. The Diamondbacks can narrow the gap somewhat with their defense. Arizona had the third best zone rating in the league, and get great center field play. If not for Jeren Kendall, Greg Allen would be a Gold Glove winner. He has terrific wheels and can cover a lot of ground in the vast Arizona outfield. Each Arizona position graded out with a positive zone rating, except two, and Ryan Johnson was a very slight under. If Allen shades to right, he can help Johnson catch all the lefty drives that stay in the park.
Season Series
Arizona dominated this matchup, taking six of seven from the Phillies in June. Arizona scored at least four runs every game, at least six runs in five games. Arizona won the first game in extras, coming back from a 5-2 deficit. In the ninth, Greg Allen singled, was bunted over, and came in to score on a Christian Yelich single off Edubray Ramos. In the tenth, Kevin Plawecki had an RBI hit to give Arizona the lead, before Yelich blasted a three-run homer to blow it open.
Arizona won comfortably the next day, for their second straight. The following game, Arizona came back again—this time from a 6-2 deficit. In the ninth, with two outs, Ramirez allowed two straight hits, then two straight walks to allow the go-ahead run to score. Yunior Severino singled in two more and the Phillies were left shellshocked by their third straight loss.
Philadelphia banged out 10 hits off Aaron Blair to salvage the finale of the four game set.
The Diamondbacks hosted Philadelphia roughly a week later. Despite Seth Beer homering and walking four times, Philadelphia's bullpen cost them again, this time on a walkoff home run by Brandon Drury off Ian Krol. Oscar Hernandez had two homers and drove in five in the game. The next day Edgar E. Garcia worked a gem for the Phillies, but their bullpen allowed four runs in the seventh in a 4-3 Diamondbacks win. Isan Diaz's two home runs in the finale allowed Arizona to win a less stressful contest, giving them six wins in seven matchups with Philadelphia.
The series highlighted Philadelphia's bullpen issues against the Diamondbacks, and Arizona's offensive mastery. Joey Gallo, Yunier Severino, and Ryan Johnson were the only regulars who had an OPS under .800, and Johnson was a respectable .739 with a .280 average. Arizona's catchers got on base at a .500 clip with eight RBIs, while Isan Diaz had four home runs. All number of Philadelphia pitchers failed.
Arizona's starters didn't pitch well to Philadelphia, but its bullpen produced a 2.08 ERA. Cole Ragans and Zac Rosscup combined to allow a single run in 7 innings, which is a wonderful sign for Arizona.
Deciding Questions
Without Moniak, will Arizona find success getting extra base hits on fly balls?
Can Cole Ragans perform well out of the bullpen?
Will Philadelphia beat up Arizona's right-handed starter?
Prediction: The Phillies should be able to get some runs on the board, but Arizona won't be scared of a charitable Philadelphia bullpen. There should be a lot of runs on the board late, but the Phillies will miss Moniak on both offense and defense, and they'll blow a lead late. Diamondbacks 8-6