Post by Commissioner Erick on Jul 13, 2019 11:11:37 GMT -5
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks got a sensational outing from Kevin Gausman to reach their first Division Series. To continue their best season in franchise history, they'll have to take on the best offensive duo in PBA History.
Nationals Offense versus Diamondbacks Pitching
The Nationals scored 989 runs this year with a devastating offense. The team was first in on-base percentage, and while it was only third in home runs, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper combined for 85. If teams forget about the speed of the players getting on base so often, the Nationals are the all time PBA leader in stolen bases by a team. It's a devastating and intense amount of pressure placed on all elements of a pitching staff.
Eric Thames, Trea Turner, and Mike Zunino are the only hitters with an on-base percentage below .338. Zunino hits ninth and has 26 home runs in just 381 at bats. Thames is a slugger with 29 home runs and 103 RBIs. Turner has 17 homers and 35 steals to fuel offense from the bottom of the lineup.
Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon and Zunino are the only players without either at least 29 home runs or at least 30 stolen bases, and Zunino and Rendon have been injured. After a staff gets around the multiple power threats and dodges the stolen base options, they get to Trout and Harper.
Trout had the fourth best OPS in PBA history this season. Above him on that list are three previous seasons of Bryce Harper. This season, Harper only produced the 11th best single-season OPS in history. Each produced top five seasons in on-base percentage, a testament to their skill and the fear opposing pitchers have in them.
The Nationals don't have major platoon splits, but they are vulnerable to the strikeout, whiffing the second most times in the National League. Most of Washington's big sluggers are left-handers that bat in the middle of the lineup, so it's possible for a staff with a good lefty in the pen to get their money's worth. Also, Washington has far better stolen base success against right-handers. As a result, Cole Ragans and Zac Rosscup may play important roles. Teams are 1-5 in stolen bases against the duo, and they can hold Victor Robles and Raul Mondesi Jr. at first while focusing on Harper, Soto, and Thames.
Arizona doesn't have the best matchup this series. They're likely going to get at least two starts in the series from Aaron Blair or Jake Odorizzi. Blair allowed the most home runs in the National League this season, and is third all time. Odorizzi meanwhile is second all-time. First All-Time. Kevin Gausman! While Gausman has been better this year, this is a dangerous suite of right-handed starters to take on Washington's power. Teams also stole a combined 27 based in 34 attempts against Gausman and Odorizzi.
Marco Gonzalez will likely be Arizona's best bet. Gonzalez had the best walk rate in the National League among qualified pitchers, which helps against Washington's patience. He also limited home runs with a very respectable 1.03 home runs per nine innings. Finally, opponents were held to a 62% success rate in steals against him. Bryce Harper is only 2-14 against him in his career, while Trea Turner is 1-14. Victor Robles is 7-15 so Gonzalez will have to worry about him off the bat.
Washington's hitters have also struggled against Gausman. Harper is 0-9, Robles is 1-8, and Mondesi is 2-10, meaning Washington's top of their order has not had success off Gausman. The more Arizona uses those two pitchers, the better Arizona's chances.
Arizona has had issues with its bullpen late in the year, but Silvino Bracho appears to have taken the closer's position and locked it down. Counting the Wild Card Game, he's been unscored upon in eight straight outings.
Arizona has a very strong defense, despite Washington's unlikelihood of hitting balls in play. They'll walk a bunch and hit balls over the fence, but if they hit it in the park, there's a decent shot Arizona will reel it in.
Off the bench, Drew Ward and Jose Marmolejos-Diaz and Ryan January all have some pop off the bench, but all are left-handed. If Ragans or Rosscup comes on to face Washington's lefties, there won't be a platoon counter.
Diamondbacks Offense versus Nationals Pitching
Arizona's offense has both power and speed, but it hasn't been working the last two games. Over the National League West Playoff and the Wild Card Game, Arizona has combined to score one run. The Diamondbacks have good depth, but they haven't had a top-notch superstar and the lack of one has hurt them against a pair of ground-ball oriented lefties in Adam Conley and Victor Gonzalez.
Washington, however, only has one lefty in their entire staff, and releiver Matt Crownover had an ERA of 6.01. Washington has a lot of righties, only one dominant pitcher, a solid enough bullpen, and question marks at the back of the rotation.
Collin Rea has had an ERA above five every year since 2018 as he doesn't strike out enough hitters to consistently get batters out. Max Scherzer has been better than his raw numbers indicate, but he's been plagued by home runs and wildly inconsistent. He has only one quality start against a team that made the playoffs, but it was an 8-inning gem against Arizona.
Arizona will get consistency from the top of their rotation though. Peter Solomon has had a Cy Young caliber season. A part of the trade that sent Daniel Murphy and Andrew McCutchen to Houston, Solomon blew up this year, leading the NL in Wins, ERA, WHIP, and Strikeout Rate. Bright and hard-working, Solomon keeps the ball in the park with two fastballs, a terrific changeup that neutralizes lefties, and a wipeout slider. Solomon's pitched in two-prior postseason, but his ERA was above seven each year, so he hasn't demonstrated he can produce in the playoffs yet.
Joe Ross has been consistent the past three years, producing between 4.3 and 4.5 WAR each season. He keeps the ball in the park first and foremost with excellent home run rates the past three years. He improved his strikeout rate this year, but a few extra balls in play have gone for hits, resulting in an increase in his ERA. With how much Arizona depends on power and speed, having pitchers who limit the long ball is important.
Arizona's bullpen, outside of Crownover, has three guys with an ERA between 3.72 and 4.07, plus Austin Voth the long man, and Jeremy Jeffries, who has always been a solid reliever and has an excellent 2.77 postseason ERA. Jorge Crespo has a 4.07 ERA, but is the closer. He has 27 saves and 78 strikeouts in 66.1 innings. However, his 14 home runs in that time frame keep him from being in the upper echelon of relievers.
Washington has a strong outfield defense and a poor infield defense, including the worst shortstop defense in baseball This would help the right-handed pull hitters in the Diamondbacks lineup. There may be a few extra runners on base for Arizona, so whether or not Scherzer can keep the ball in the park will be crucial for Washington.
Season Series
Arizona won five of seven against Washington, including a four-game road sweep the final week of the season to help force a playoff for the NL West.
In early August Max Scherzer fired off one-hit over 8 shutout innings in an Arizona win. Despite a Ryan Johnson game-tying home run off Jorge Crespo the following day, Eric Thames and Trea Turner had back-to-back doubles the following day to give Washington a tenth inning lead. Arizona had runners on the corners with one out to tie, but Blake Treinen got Brandon Drury to hit into a game-ending double play.
The tables turned the following day. Victor Robles hit a game-tying double off Pedro Baez in the ninth, but Joey Gallo hit a walk-off two-run home run off Andrew Edwards for the win. In September, Arizona got exceptional starting pitching from Blair, Gonzalez, Gausman, and Frank Duncan, with three quality starts combining with 11.2 shutout relief innings to sweep Washington away.
Deciding Questions
Will Arizona's dormant offense string together enough hits against the Washington pitching staff?
Can Arizona's pitchers keep the ball in the park against the power Washington packs?
Which Scherzer will show up, the one with an ERA near five or the one who can fire one-hit ball over 8 shutout innings?
Prediction: This series will be closer than one would think considering Washington's offense and Arizona's recent underwhelming production. However, Washington's pitching staff should be unspectacular but reliable, and their offense should blow up a few times. Marco Gonzalez will win twice, but Washington will win Game 7. Nationals in 7.
Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers
The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers are postseason stalwarts, with the Cubs capturing their fifth straight NL Central title and the Los Angeles Dodgers winning four NL West crowns after bowing out to the Pirates in the 2017 Wild Card Game. These are two powerhouses in a rematch of the 2018 NLCS, a series turned on a Game 5 home run by Bijan Rademacher of all people. This Cubs team doesn't have a lot of depth, so if they do win, it'll probably be on the strength of someone more familiar.
Cubs Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
Despite a number of injuries, the Dodgers finished with an outstanding season pitching the baseball, finishing with the fewest runs allowed in the National League. They had the third best starter's ERA and the very best bullpen in the league. However, a lot of that terrific run prevention was built on the back of Julio Urias' 3.01 ERA, which will not be seen this postseason.
The Dodgers' rotation becomes some combination of Victor Gonzalez, Logan Allen, James Kapriellan, Kenta Maeda, and Jacob Rhame. Maeda had an ERA of 7.21 while Rhame allowed 20 home runs in 88 innings. One of them might have to get a start, which may be an automatic win for the Cubs.
James Kapriellan was a fine back-end starter for the Dodgers this year, and he stabilized in the second half after a brutal start. Kapriellan stopped allowing so many home runs as the weather got cooler, and now isn't a terrible option. Victor Gonzalez started the NL West Playoff and relied on soft contact to work 7.1 shutout innings. He's had several spectacular outings, but is very reliant on solid defense.
The Dodgers, though, have terrible defense in center field and shortstop, which makes it hard to depend on the low BABIP of Gonzalez to hold.
Logan Allen has the best strikeout numbers of the starters, making him the best bet to turn in a strong start. However, despite that fact, he went 4-11 this year.
It's hard to depend on the Dodgers having a great start at any point, but the bullpen is very consistent. The long man and the closer have ERAs in the twos and everyone else has an ERA in the threes.
Kenley Jansen had a slightly worse year this year than in 2020, but it's still 2.2 WAR from a reliever. He allowed just 16 walks in 76 innings, striking out 97, which is absolute mastery of the strike zone. Setup man Mike Caldwell walked 46 batters in 90 innings, but he made up for it by striking out an outrageous 140 batters. Osiris Ramirez fanned 103 batters in 85.1 innings in his rookie year. Former Cub David Robertson struck out 101 in 88.1 innings, allowing just eight home runs. Will Harris only struck out 86 batters in his 87 innings.
It's a tremendous bullpen of flamethrowers who keep the ball in the park. It's also very right-handed. Adam Liberatore has allowed an OPS in the .500s to both righties and lefties, while Gonzalez has an opponent OPS in the 700s against righties and lefties. Everyone else but Allen has stark platoon splits, meaning a team with a lot of lefties may have the ability to string out a few hits, while righties may be in trouble.
Chicago had the third best offense in the NL. The Cubs get on base and hit home runs, though they don't have a great batting average. This makes them less likely to take advantage of the Dodgers' underwhelming defense, and puts their best skills against the Dodger pitching staff's best attributes. The Cubs have two hitters with over 44 home runs, but they're both right handed. Chicago strangely destroys left-handed pitching but are somehow only 18-16 against lefty starters.
Of the pure lefties in the Cubs lineup, Daryl Wilson has an OBP under .300, Anthony Rizzo had a second straight year with an OPS under .800, leaving only Freddie Freeman and his 40 homers as a player who has pulverized righty pitching. They may struggle against the Dodgers bullpen, but they can still do serious damage against the underwhelming Dodgers starters. It's a fascinating decision.
Dodgers Offense versus Cubs Pitching
The Cubs staff mirrors the Dodgers somewhat in that it put up a season with excellent bullpen numbers and shaky starting numbers. Meanwhile the Dodgers had only the eighth best offense in the league, with a lot of their production concentrated in just a few spots.
Some of the Dodgers better hitters haven't demonstrated extreme platoon splits, like Willie Calhoun and Cody Bellinger, and even Nomar Mazara's numbers against lefties are dynamite. Still, the Dodgers are going to unfold a lineup with eight hitters that are switch hitters or left handed. That means it's time to put Chris Sale to stop putting up disastrous postseasons and produce with the pressure on.
Sale has a 5.19 ERA in 11 career playoff starts, often getting hit hard in key games. If he can't come through with a pair of wins, then it gives the Dodgers' offense a huge advantage against Chicago's lesser starters. Sale is Chicago's ace. Only an injury kept him from replicating last year's 3.5 WAR mark. It's imperative that he step up.
Behind Sale, the Cubs are in a quandary. Kyle Hendricks should be fine. He's always incredibly stingy with the walks, he always keeps the ball in the park, and despite the platoon advantage, the Dodgers don't have an offense that will win with BABIP. If they try, the Cubs have Francisco Lindor and Xander Bogaerts to vacuum everything up in the infield.
Jake Arrieta, however, is starting to look like a 35-year-old. Perennially one of the best pitchers at keeping the ball in the park, he finally allowed more than a home run per nine this season. The strikeouts have disintegrated, and with it, the walks have jumped. Chicago's defense helps immensely with Arrieta's BABIP and he turned in a 4.84 ERA, which is respectable. There's not much confidence in him to get through a Dodgers lineup without yielding some damage though.
The Cubs may give Pierce Johnson, their long time swingman, a start. Johnson had a 3.13 ERA this year, and a 3.35 mark as a starter. Johnson doesn't strike too many batters out and is mediocre in the walk and home run categories, but he doesn't throw many wild pitches, no more than three a season in his career, which means he doesn't hurt himself. He's always ran good BABIPS, allowing the Cubs defense to do their work.
The Dodgers have four hitters with at least 31 home runs, who could just tee off on those guys. Mazara has eight postseason home runs in his career, tied for second all time. Cody Bellinger has seven. Alex Verdugo has seven with a .305 postseason average. Willie Calhoun doesn't have any in seven games, but he hit .357 last NLDS, and hit 37 home runs this year. These are guys who do damage against the best-of-the-best, and can go nuts against mediocre playoff pitching.
The Cubs bullpen is a different story, especially in the late innings. Zach Britton had a 2.15 ERA, Michael Lorenzen had a 1.95 mark, and as a reliever, Bonkers Carrizales produced a 3.14 ERA. Britton is a five-time All-Star, and Carrizales was last season's Reliever of the Year. Leads tend to stay leads against this crew.
Losing Corey Knebel hurts, as the Cubs don't have that bridge to the late innings anymore. Mike Montgomery and Chris Tillman can keep a game from getting out of hand, as neither allows a lot of home runs, at least this version of Tillman who upgraded in Japan. Neither can strike anybody out though. Skylar Arias can get lefties out, but not righties, a skill that could be useful this series. Outside of a magical 13-game run last year after being claimed off waivers, Darren O'Day has been sub-replacement level the last two years.
With three great relievers, plus Arias, the Cubs will just need to get about 5.2 innings from their starters every day. Fortunately, the Cubs have a lot of bad hitters in their lineup. Michael de Leon had a .590 OPS this year. He also has a .514 postseason OPS as he's neither drawn a walk, nor homered in the second season. Keibert Ruiz put up a .380 slugging mark, and bats cleanup for the Dodgers. Juremi Profar gets on base at a .305 clip and hits leadoff. Edwin Rios popped 21 home runs, but with only 14 doubles and a .301 OBP, won't do much but hit the occasional home run.
It's not a deep lineup, and Calhoun, Verdugo, and Mazara will have to carry the team.
Season Series
The two teams split four games in Chicago in late May-early June, before the Dodgers took a home set in August.
Kapriellan and Urias were strong in the two wins in Chicago, while lefties Allen and Gonzalez got hit hard. For the Cubs, Sale and Arrieta produced, while Montgomery and Johnson couldn't hang.
In Los Angeles, Rios had a huge two-run home run off Arias to give the Dodgers a win to open that series. Arrieta had a quality start, while Urias started for the Dodgers. Chicago won the middle game. With two on in the seventh of a 4-2 Cubs lead, Zach Britton got a huge double play off Danny Diaz, and Bonkers pitched the final two innings to save it out. Chris Tillman got the win for the Cubs, while Kenta Maeda pitched 6.2 decent, but uninspiring innings for the Dodgers. Los Angeles won the finale as Hendricks was injured, and Allen allowed only two runs despite five hits and two walks in 4.1 innings. The Dodgers bullpen pitched a 4.2 inning shutout to close things out.
A lot of the Dodgers best pitching performances came from pitchers who won't be major factors, though it was good for them to have Kaprieilan do well. Meanwhile, Arrieta doing well gives the Cubs some confidence in the back of their staff.
Deciding Questions
Can the Dodgers stars blow up the back of the Cubs rotation early on before the bullpen reinforcements arrive?
Will James Kaprielian come up big knowing the Cubs can really hit lefty-starters well, making a win in his start imperative?
Will Arrieta pitch like he pitched against the Dodgers this season, or like the pitcher with the 5.00 ERA in all his other starts?
Prediction: I don't think the Dodgers have enough offense. They'll take care of a starter, and maybe get into the weak link of the Cubs middle-innings for a couple of wins, but the Cubs should get enough early offense this series and ride the bullpen for a series win. Cubs in 6.
The Arizona Diamondbacks got a sensational outing from Kevin Gausman to reach their first Division Series. To continue their best season in franchise history, they'll have to take on the best offensive duo in PBA History.
Nationals Offense versus Diamondbacks Pitching
The Nationals scored 989 runs this year with a devastating offense. The team was first in on-base percentage, and while it was only third in home runs, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper combined for 85. If teams forget about the speed of the players getting on base so often, the Nationals are the all time PBA leader in stolen bases by a team. It's a devastating and intense amount of pressure placed on all elements of a pitching staff.
Eric Thames, Trea Turner, and Mike Zunino are the only hitters with an on-base percentage below .338. Zunino hits ninth and has 26 home runs in just 381 at bats. Thames is a slugger with 29 home runs and 103 RBIs. Turner has 17 homers and 35 steals to fuel offense from the bottom of the lineup.
Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon and Zunino are the only players without either at least 29 home runs or at least 30 stolen bases, and Zunino and Rendon have been injured. After a staff gets around the multiple power threats and dodges the stolen base options, they get to Trout and Harper.
Trout had the fourth best OPS in PBA history this season. Above him on that list are three previous seasons of Bryce Harper. This season, Harper only produced the 11th best single-season OPS in history. Each produced top five seasons in on-base percentage, a testament to their skill and the fear opposing pitchers have in them.
The Nationals don't have major platoon splits, but they are vulnerable to the strikeout, whiffing the second most times in the National League. Most of Washington's big sluggers are left-handers that bat in the middle of the lineup, so it's possible for a staff with a good lefty in the pen to get their money's worth. Also, Washington has far better stolen base success against right-handers. As a result, Cole Ragans and Zac Rosscup may play important roles. Teams are 1-5 in stolen bases against the duo, and they can hold Victor Robles and Raul Mondesi Jr. at first while focusing on Harper, Soto, and Thames.
Arizona doesn't have the best matchup this series. They're likely going to get at least two starts in the series from Aaron Blair or Jake Odorizzi. Blair allowed the most home runs in the National League this season, and is third all time. Odorizzi meanwhile is second all-time. First All-Time. Kevin Gausman! While Gausman has been better this year, this is a dangerous suite of right-handed starters to take on Washington's power. Teams also stole a combined 27 based in 34 attempts against Gausman and Odorizzi.
Marco Gonzalez will likely be Arizona's best bet. Gonzalez had the best walk rate in the National League among qualified pitchers, which helps against Washington's patience. He also limited home runs with a very respectable 1.03 home runs per nine innings. Finally, opponents were held to a 62% success rate in steals against him. Bryce Harper is only 2-14 against him in his career, while Trea Turner is 1-14. Victor Robles is 7-15 so Gonzalez will have to worry about him off the bat.
Washington's hitters have also struggled against Gausman. Harper is 0-9, Robles is 1-8, and Mondesi is 2-10, meaning Washington's top of their order has not had success off Gausman. The more Arizona uses those two pitchers, the better Arizona's chances.
Arizona has had issues with its bullpen late in the year, but Silvino Bracho appears to have taken the closer's position and locked it down. Counting the Wild Card Game, he's been unscored upon in eight straight outings.
Arizona has a very strong defense, despite Washington's unlikelihood of hitting balls in play. They'll walk a bunch and hit balls over the fence, but if they hit it in the park, there's a decent shot Arizona will reel it in.
Off the bench, Drew Ward and Jose Marmolejos-Diaz and Ryan January all have some pop off the bench, but all are left-handed. If Ragans or Rosscup comes on to face Washington's lefties, there won't be a platoon counter.
Diamondbacks Offense versus Nationals Pitching
Arizona's offense has both power and speed, but it hasn't been working the last two games. Over the National League West Playoff and the Wild Card Game, Arizona has combined to score one run. The Diamondbacks have good depth, but they haven't had a top-notch superstar and the lack of one has hurt them against a pair of ground-ball oriented lefties in Adam Conley and Victor Gonzalez.
Washington, however, only has one lefty in their entire staff, and releiver Matt Crownover had an ERA of 6.01. Washington has a lot of righties, only one dominant pitcher, a solid enough bullpen, and question marks at the back of the rotation.
Collin Rea has had an ERA above five every year since 2018 as he doesn't strike out enough hitters to consistently get batters out. Max Scherzer has been better than his raw numbers indicate, but he's been plagued by home runs and wildly inconsistent. He has only one quality start against a team that made the playoffs, but it was an 8-inning gem against Arizona.
Arizona will get consistency from the top of their rotation though. Peter Solomon has had a Cy Young caliber season. A part of the trade that sent Daniel Murphy and Andrew McCutchen to Houston, Solomon blew up this year, leading the NL in Wins, ERA, WHIP, and Strikeout Rate. Bright and hard-working, Solomon keeps the ball in the park with two fastballs, a terrific changeup that neutralizes lefties, and a wipeout slider. Solomon's pitched in two-prior postseason, but his ERA was above seven each year, so he hasn't demonstrated he can produce in the playoffs yet.
Joe Ross has been consistent the past three years, producing between 4.3 and 4.5 WAR each season. He keeps the ball in the park first and foremost with excellent home run rates the past three years. He improved his strikeout rate this year, but a few extra balls in play have gone for hits, resulting in an increase in his ERA. With how much Arizona depends on power and speed, having pitchers who limit the long ball is important.
Arizona's bullpen, outside of Crownover, has three guys with an ERA between 3.72 and 4.07, plus Austin Voth the long man, and Jeremy Jeffries, who has always been a solid reliever and has an excellent 2.77 postseason ERA. Jorge Crespo has a 4.07 ERA, but is the closer. He has 27 saves and 78 strikeouts in 66.1 innings. However, his 14 home runs in that time frame keep him from being in the upper echelon of relievers.
Washington has a strong outfield defense and a poor infield defense, including the worst shortstop defense in baseball This would help the right-handed pull hitters in the Diamondbacks lineup. There may be a few extra runners on base for Arizona, so whether or not Scherzer can keep the ball in the park will be crucial for Washington.
Season Series
Arizona won five of seven against Washington, including a four-game road sweep the final week of the season to help force a playoff for the NL West.
In early August Max Scherzer fired off one-hit over 8 shutout innings in an Arizona win. Despite a Ryan Johnson game-tying home run off Jorge Crespo the following day, Eric Thames and Trea Turner had back-to-back doubles the following day to give Washington a tenth inning lead. Arizona had runners on the corners with one out to tie, but Blake Treinen got Brandon Drury to hit into a game-ending double play.
The tables turned the following day. Victor Robles hit a game-tying double off Pedro Baez in the ninth, but Joey Gallo hit a walk-off two-run home run off Andrew Edwards for the win. In September, Arizona got exceptional starting pitching from Blair, Gonzalez, Gausman, and Frank Duncan, with three quality starts combining with 11.2 shutout relief innings to sweep Washington away.
Deciding Questions
Will Arizona's dormant offense string together enough hits against the Washington pitching staff?
Can Arizona's pitchers keep the ball in the park against the power Washington packs?
Which Scherzer will show up, the one with an ERA near five or the one who can fire one-hit ball over 8 shutout innings?
Prediction: This series will be closer than one would think considering Washington's offense and Arizona's recent underwhelming production. However, Washington's pitching staff should be unspectacular but reliable, and their offense should blow up a few times. Marco Gonzalez will win twice, but Washington will win Game 7. Nationals in 7.
Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers
The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers are postseason stalwarts, with the Cubs capturing their fifth straight NL Central title and the Los Angeles Dodgers winning four NL West crowns after bowing out to the Pirates in the 2017 Wild Card Game. These are two powerhouses in a rematch of the 2018 NLCS, a series turned on a Game 5 home run by Bijan Rademacher of all people. This Cubs team doesn't have a lot of depth, so if they do win, it'll probably be on the strength of someone more familiar.
Cubs Offense versus Dodgers Pitching
Despite a number of injuries, the Dodgers finished with an outstanding season pitching the baseball, finishing with the fewest runs allowed in the National League. They had the third best starter's ERA and the very best bullpen in the league. However, a lot of that terrific run prevention was built on the back of Julio Urias' 3.01 ERA, which will not be seen this postseason.
The Dodgers' rotation becomes some combination of Victor Gonzalez, Logan Allen, James Kapriellan, Kenta Maeda, and Jacob Rhame. Maeda had an ERA of 7.21 while Rhame allowed 20 home runs in 88 innings. One of them might have to get a start, which may be an automatic win for the Cubs.
James Kapriellan was a fine back-end starter for the Dodgers this year, and he stabilized in the second half after a brutal start. Kapriellan stopped allowing so many home runs as the weather got cooler, and now isn't a terrible option. Victor Gonzalez started the NL West Playoff and relied on soft contact to work 7.1 shutout innings. He's had several spectacular outings, but is very reliant on solid defense.
The Dodgers, though, have terrible defense in center field and shortstop, which makes it hard to depend on the low BABIP of Gonzalez to hold.
Logan Allen has the best strikeout numbers of the starters, making him the best bet to turn in a strong start. However, despite that fact, he went 4-11 this year.
It's hard to depend on the Dodgers having a great start at any point, but the bullpen is very consistent. The long man and the closer have ERAs in the twos and everyone else has an ERA in the threes.
Kenley Jansen had a slightly worse year this year than in 2020, but it's still 2.2 WAR from a reliever. He allowed just 16 walks in 76 innings, striking out 97, which is absolute mastery of the strike zone. Setup man Mike Caldwell walked 46 batters in 90 innings, but he made up for it by striking out an outrageous 140 batters. Osiris Ramirez fanned 103 batters in 85.1 innings in his rookie year. Former Cub David Robertson struck out 101 in 88.1 innings, allowing just eight home runs. Will Harris only struck out 86 batters in his 87 innings.
It's a tremendous bullpen of flamethrowers who keep the ball in the park. It's also very right-handed. Adam Liberatore has allowed an OPS in the .500s to both righties and lefties, while Gonzalez has an opponent OPS in the 700s against righties and lefties. Everyone else but Allen has stark platoon splits, meaning a team with a lot of lefties may have the ability to string out a few hits, while righties may be in trouble.
Chicago had the third best offense in the NL. The Cubs get on base and hit home runs, though they don't have a great batting average. This makes them less likely to take advantage of the Dodgers' underwhelming defense, and puts their best skills against the Dodger pitching staff's best attributes. The Cubs have two hitters with over 44 home runs, but they're both right handed. Chicago strangely destroys left-handed pitching but are somehow only 18-16 against lefty starters.
Of the pure lefties in the Cubs lineup, Daryl Wilson has an OBP under .300, Anthony Rizzo had a second straight year with an OPS under .800, leaving only Freddie Freeman and his 40 homers as a player who has pulverized righty pitching. They may struggle against the Dodgers bullpen, but they can still do serious damage against the underwhelming Dodgers starters. It's a fascinating decision.
Dodgers Offense versus Cubs Pitching
The Cubs staff mirrors the Dodgers somewhat in that it put up a season with excellent bullpen numbers and shaky starting numbers. Meanwhile the Dodgers had only the eighth best offense in the league, with a lot of their production concentrated in just a few spots.
Some of the Dodgers better hitters haven't demonstrated extreme platoon splits, like Willie Calhoun and Cody Bellinger, and even Nomar Mazara's numbers against lefties are dynamite. Still, the Dodgers are going to unfold a lineup with eight hitters that are switch hitters or left handed. That means it's time to put Chris Sale to stop putting up disastrous postseasons and produce with the pressure on.
Sale has a 5.19 ERA in 11 career playoff starts, often getting hit hard in key games. If he can't come through with a pair of wins, then it gives the Dodgers' offense a huge advantage against Chicago's lesser starters. Sale is Chicago's ace. Only an injury kept him from replicating last year's 3.5 WAR mark. It's imperative that he step up.
Behind Sale, the Cubs are in a quandary. Kyle Hendricks should be fine. He's always incredibly stingy with the walks, he always keeps the ball in the park, and despite the platoon advantage, the Dodgers don't have an offense that will win with BABIP. If they try, the Cubs have Francisco Lindor and Xander Bogaerts to vacuum everything up in the infield.
Jake Arrieta, however, is starting to look like a 35-year-old. Perennially one of the best pitchers at keeping the ball in the park, he finally allowed more than a home run per nine this season. The strikeouts have disintegrated, and with it, the walks have jumped. Chicago's defense helps immensely with Arrieta's BABIP and he turned in a 4.84 ERA, which is respectable. There's not much confidence in him to get through a Dodgers lineup without yielding some damage though.
The Cubs may give Pierce Johnson, their long time swingman, a start. Johnson had a 3.13 ERA this year, and a 3.35 mark as a starter. Johnson doesn't strike too many batters out and is mediocre in the walk and home run categories, but he doesn't throw many wild pitches, no more than three a season in his career, which means he doesn't hurt himself. He's always ran good BABIPS, allowing the Cubs defense to do their work.
The Dodgers have four hitters with at least 31 home runs, who could just tee off on those guys. Mazara has eight postseason home runs in his career, tied for second all time. Cody Bellinger has seven. Alex Verdugo has seven with a .305 postseason average. Willie Calhoun doesn't have any in seven games, but he hit .357 last NLDS, and hit 37 home runs this year. These are guys who do damage against the best-of-the-best, and can go nuts against mediocre playoff pitching.
The Cubs bullpen is a different story, especially in the late innings. Zach Britton had a 2.15 ERA, Michael Lorenzen had a 1.95 mark, and as a reliever, Bonkers Carrizales produced a 3.14 ERA. Britton is a five-time All-Star, and Carrizales was last season's Reliever of the Year. Leads tend to stay leads against this crew.
Losing Corey Knebel hurts, as the Cubs don't have that bridge to the late innings anymore. Mike Montgomery and Chris Tillman can keep a game from getting out of hand, as neither allows a lot of home runs, at least this version of Tillman who upgraded in Japan. Neither can strike anybody out though. Skylar Arias can get lefties out, but not righties, a skill that could be useful this series. Outside of a magical 13-game run last year after being claimed off waivers, Darren O'Day has been sub-replacement level the last two years.
With three great relievers, plus Arias, the Cubs will just need to get about 5.2 innings from their starters every day. Fortunately, the Cubs have a lot of bad hitters in their lineup. Michael de Leon had a .590 OPS this year. He also has a .514 postseason OPS as he's neither drawn a walk, nor homered in the second season. Keibert Ruiz put up a .380 slugging mark, and bats cleanup for the Dodgers. Juremi Profar gets on base at a .305 clip and hits leadoff. Edwin Rios popped 21 home runs, but with only 14 doubles and a .301 OBP, won't do much but hit the occasional home run.
It's not a deep lineup, and Calhoun, Verdugo, and Mazara will have to carry the team.
Season Series
The two teams split four games in Chicago in late May-early June, before the Dodgers took a home set in August.
Kapriellan and Urias were strong in the two wins in Chicago, while lefties Allen and Gonzalez got hit hard. For the Cubs, Sale and Arrieta produced, while Montgomery and Johnson couldn't hang.
In Los Angeles, Rios had a huge two-run home run off Arias to give the Dodgers a win to open that series. Arrieta had a quality start, while Urias started for the Dodgers. Chicago won the middle game. With two on in the seventh of a 4-2 Cubs lead, Zach Britton got a huge double play off Danny Diaz, and Bonkers pitched the final two innings to save it out. Chris Tillman got the win for the Cubs, while Kenta Maeda pitched 6.2 decent, but uninspiring innings for the Dodgers. Los Angeles won the finale as Hendricks was injured, and Allen allowed only two runs despite five hits and two walks in 4.1 innings. The Dodgers bullpen pitched a 4.2 inning shutout to close things out.
A lot of the Dodgers best pitching performances came from pitchers who won't be major factors, though it was good for them to have Kaprieilan do well. Meanwhile, Arrieta doing well gives the Cubs some confidence in the back of their staff.
Deciding Questions
Can the Dodgers stars blow up the back of the Cubs rotation early on before the bullpen reinforcements arrive?
Will James Kaprielian come up big knowing the Cubs can really hit lefty-starters well, making a win in his start imperative?
Will Arrieta pitch like he pitched against the Dodgers this season, or like the pitcher with the 5.00 ERA in all his other starts?
Prediction: I don't think the Dodgers have enough offense. They'll take care of a starter, and maybe get into the weak link of the Cubs middle-innings for a couple of wins, but the Cubs should get enough early offense this series and ride the bullpen for a series win. Cubs in 6.