Post by Commissioner Erick on Jul 16, 2019 6:41:07 GMT -5
Washington Nationals versus Chicago Cubs
The Washington Nationals romped through Arizona to make their first NLCS in history. The Chicago Cubs meanwhile have made their third NLCS, and are looking for their second trip to the World Series. The two teams were first and third in runs scored during the season, so expect an offensive display this round.
Nationals Offense versus Cubs Pitching
We got a sense of the scope of Washington's offense during the NLDS when they produced 40 runs over four games, an average of 10 runs a pop. Mike Trout hit .333 with a walkoff home run. Bryce Harper hit a staggering .643/.746/1.071 with six driven in. Raul Mondesi got on base at a .429 clip at the two-hole, while Juan Soto and Trea Turner each drove in seven. The team dialed back its stolen base production with the offense going so well, attempting just four stolen bases and succeeding three times.
There's not too much analysis needed. Washington will punish fly ball pitchers, and pitchers who aren't in the upper echelon. Arizona had a decent rotation and Washington plowed through it like a tackling dummy.
The one susceptibility Washington may have is to exceptional left-handed starting pitching, as well as lefty specialists in the bullpen. Fortunately for the Cubs, they can match up there. Chris Sale dominated an underwhelming Dodgers lineup last round, and appears to have put past playoff disasters behind him. His excellent control mitigates some of Washington's on-base power, his ability to induce soft contact has had his BABIP at either .274 or .275 three straight season, and he misses bats, limiting the Nationals ability to bang out hits and cause havoc with their speed. He did allow 30 home runs in only 161.2 innings, but most of Washington's slugging is from the left side so the platoon advantage may help Sale there.
Mike Montgomery didn't have stark platoon splits and Skylar Arias didn't have the best round against Arizona, but Arias did force lefties to hit for just a .657 OPS off him. He may be effective in the middle innings against the heart of Washington's order. Meanwhile, Zach Britton will need to be key. The five-time All-Star has allowed just two home runs to left-handed batters in his entire career. He'll need to come up big against Harper, Thames, and Soto to give the Cubs a chance.
Kyle Hendricks is a fascinating option, and the Cubs will need him to have a good series to advance. In fact, he may be the key to Chicago's chances. Sale can perhaps win his matchups, but it's hard to predict Jake Arrieta and the tandem of Pierce Johnson and Mike Montgomery providing too much run prevention. Therefore, Hendricks may need to win two starts for Chicago to advance. He keeps the ball in the park, which should help against Washington's power lefties, and he has excellent control, which may take care of the Nationals set-up men. He went 7 shutout innings in a June start in Washington, and he's consistently kept up his excellent walk and home run rates in the playoffs. Washington may have the hitters to win a game based on BABIP, and they can run on Hendricks, making Game 2 and potential Game 6 must-watch TV.
The Cubs have the right kind of relievers to deal with Washington. Even though most of Chicago's best relievers are right-handed, they all have fantastic strikeout rates and will be facing a team that strikes out second most in the NL. Michael Lorenzen allowed only four home runs all year, while Bonkers Carrizales carried a 36 percent strikeout rate as a reliever.
The Cubs defense remains exceptional, and Francisco Lindor's presence at shortstop will be a huge help against the speedy Nationals righties, who may be more apt to pull grounders and liners to the left side.
The Cubs outfielders have great arms if Washington tries to take extra bases. However, Chicago's main catcher, Wilson Contreras, only threw out 23.5 percent of base stealers this year.
Cubs Offense versus Nationals Pitching
Chicago did damage against the Dodgers' underwhelming starters, but struggled with their excellent bullpen.
Only four players hit over .167 in the series as the team's lefties largely struggled. The Cubs hit for a ton of power, selling out for walks and home runs over singles. As a result, they have a very skewed ranking of second in home runs and third in on-base percentage, while falling to ninth in average. How they do with men in scoring position will be a key to the series.
Chicago largely beasts on left-handed pitching. Their left-handed hitters have underperformed this year, with only Freddie Freeman having a great year by his standards. Chicago's right-handers tend to have better averages as well as more power numbers.
Washington, however, has just one lefty on their staff, Matt Crownover. He doesn't factor too prominently in their bullpen usage, though he may get a few batters as a specialist throughout the series. This means the Cubs will get a steady dose of pitchers they'll likely not have the platoon advantage against.
The Nationals will go with three starters during the series, though one starter, Max Scherzer, is dealing with a strained forearm. Despite this being the worse year of his career, Scherzer still has an excellent walk rate and had settled down after a rough start. Now, there's no idea what to expect from him in any start this series.
Peter Solomon was a Cy-Young candidate in the regular season, but he was lit up in the NLDS by Arizona, working to a 9.00 ERA. Solomon didn't give up a home run in the series, but walked six guys and struck out eight in 9 innings. Over the regular season Solomon yielded only 16 home runs in 179.2 innings, striking out 202 in that span. He dominated right-handed pitching though, with righties hitting just .210 with two home runs off him. Both of his starts against the Cubs this year were somewhat anomalous. He suffered an injury during one start, working 3.2 no-hit innings before being pulled from the game by a pulled hamstring. His other start so him go 5 shutout innings, but those innings were interrupted by a rain delay. Solomon got hit hard in the sixth inning of that game.
Still, the fact that it took a rain delay and an injury to get him to give up any runs, is a good omen for the Nationals.
Joe Ross is another guy who limits what the Cubs want to do. He's very stingy with homers, he limits walks, and he's comfortable playing the BABIP game. Ross's BABIP was elevated slightly this year compared with prior seasons, but the Cubs batting average indicates that they don't want to get into a BABIP-type game, preferring to walk and mash. Ross was hit hard in his start against the Cubs this year, allowing six runs in 4 innings in Chicago. Last year, Ross went 4.1 shutout innings in one start, and allowed four runs in 4 innings in the other. In 2019, Ross allowed two runs in 4 innings, and two runs over 7.1 innings. Added up, that's 23.2 innings and 14 runs allowed. He hasn't gone deep, nor has he been effective.
Washington's bullpen was very good against Arizona. Austin Voth went 5 innings and allowed just one run. He'd be the Nationals option to start if Scherzer's injury is worse than feared. Most of the Nationals pitchers tend to be volatile, with high strikeout and walk rates. Andrew Edwards walked 41 in 55.2 innings, striking out 72. Against a patient team like Chicago, that may not fly. Likewise, Blake Treinen walked 44 in 96 innings, striking out 91. Those pitchers limited the home runs, but they're playing with fire with that many men on base.
Jeremy Jeffress may be a good bet for the Nationals. He limits home runs and walks at the cost of fewer strikeouts. He'll have a platoon advantage against the dangerous righties the Cubs emply, and may be able to get Anthony Rizzo and Daryl Wilson to hit weak grounders to second base all day.
Washington has a poor infield defense, but the Cubs try to hit everything in the air anyway. Washington's outfield defense is very strong, led by Victor Robles in Center Field.
Season Series
The two teams split four in Chicago in May, with the Cubs taking the series in Washington in June. Trout and Harper went 0-7 with a walk in the opener, and the Nationals still put up 10 runs on a pair of pitchers who won't play during the series. Harper and Trout both sat the next day, and the Cubs won a battle of back-end starters. Trout sat the following day as well, and a key Trea Turner error allowed Chris Beck to outduel Scherzer for a Cubs win. The finale went 12 innings, with Dan Otero imploding in the finale, allowing the Nationals to pull away with a 10-5 win.
Francisco Lindor singled in the tying run in the top of the ninth of the opening series in Washington, but Mark Zagunis and Freddie Freeman failed to bring him in. Bryce Harper drew a bases loaded walk off Michael Lorenzen in the bottom of the frame to walk it off for the Nats. Kyle Hendricks, Darren O'Day, and Corey Knebel combined on a three-hit shutout the following day. The Cubs took the season series by winning the finale 4-3. In the seventh, Mike Trout came on with two-on, two-out and the Nats down one. Lorenzen struck him out looking to preserve the lead.
Deciding Questions
Will Anthony Rizzo step up to provide some left-handed punch for the Cubs?
Will Kyle Hendricks soft-contact ability befuddle Washington?
Will Scherzer and Ross be able to give the Cubs anything?
Prediction: The offenses are better than the pitching in this series. The Cubs may have some answers for Washington, but Washington's rotation is full of questions. If Hendricks pitches well, the Cubs should have enough offense to win a fun series. Cubs in 6.
The Washington Nationals romped through Arizona to make their first NLCS in history. The Chicago Cubs meanwhile have made their third NLCS, and are looking for their second trip to the World Series. The two teams were first and third in runs scored during the season, so expect an offensive display this round.
Nationals Offense versus Cubs Pitching
We got a sense of the scope of Washington's offense during the NLDS when they produced 40 runs over four games, an average of 10 runs a pop. Mike Trout hit .333 with a walkoff home run. Bryce Harper hit a staggering .643/.746/1.071 with six driven in. Raul Mondesi got on base at a .429 clip at the two-hole, while Juan Soto and Trea Turner each drove in seven. The team dialed back its stolen base production with the offense going so well, attempting just four stolen bases and succeeding three times.
There's not too much analysis needed. Washington will punish fly ball pitchers, and pitchers who aren't in the upper echelon. Arizona had a decent rotation and Washington plowed through it like a tackling dummy.
The one susceptibility Washington may have is to exceptional left-handed starting pitching, as well as lefty specialists in the bullpen. Fortunately for the Cubs, they can match up there. Chris Sale dominated an underwhelming Dodgers lineup last round, and appears to have put past playoff disasters behind him. His excellent control mitigates some of Washington's on-base power, his ability to induce soft contact has had his BABIP at either .274 or .275 three straight season, and he misses bats, limiting the Nationals ability to bang out hits and cause havoc with their speed. He did allow 30 home runs in only 161.2 innings, but most of Washington's slugging is from the left side so the platoon advantage may help Sale there.
Mike Montgomery didn't have stark platoon splits and Skylar Arias didn't have the best round against Arizona, but Arias did force lefties to hit for just a .657 OPS off him. He may be effective in the middle innings against the heart of Washington's order. Meanwhile, Zach Britton will need to be key. The five-time All-Star has allowed just two home runs to left-handed batters in his entire career. He'll need to come up big against Harper, Thames, and Soto to give the Cubs a chance.
Kyle Hendricks is a fascinating option, and the Cubs will need him to have a good series to advance. In fact, he may be the key to Chicago's chances. Sale can perhaps win his matchups, but it's hard to predict Jake Arrieta and the tandem of Pierce Johnson and Mike Montgomery providing too much run prevention. Therefore, Hendricks may need to win two starts for Chicago to advance. He keeps the ball in the park, which should help against Washington's power lefties, and he has excellent control, which may take care of the Nationals set-up men. He went 7 shutout innings in a June start in Washington, and he's consistently kept up his excellent walk and home run rates in the playoffs. Washington may have the hitters to win a game based on BABIP, and they can run on Hendricks, making Game 2 and potential Game 6 must-watch TV.
The Cubs have the right kind of relievers to deal with Washington. Even though most of Chicago's best relievers are right-handed, they all have fantastic strikeout rates and will be facing a team that strikes out second most in the NL. Michael Lorenzen allowed only four home runs all year, while Bonkers Carrizales carried a 36 percent strikeout rate as a reliever.
The Cubs defense remains exceptional, and Francisco Lindor's presence at shortstop will be a huge help against the speedy Nationals righties, who may be more apt to pull grounders and liners to the left side.
The Cubs outfielders have great arms if Washington tries to take extra bases. However, Chicago's main catcher, Wilson Contreras, only threw out 23.5 percent of base stealers this year.
Cubs Offense versus Nationals Pitching
Chicago did damage against the Dodgers' underwhelming starters, but struggled with their excellent bullpen.
Only four players hit over .167 in the series as the team's lefties largely struggled. The Cubs hit for a ton of power, selling out for walks and home runs over singles. As a result, they have a very skewed ranking of second in home runs and third in on-base percentage, while falling to ninth in average. How they do with men in scoring position will be a key to the series.
Chicago largely beasts on left-handed pitching. Their left-handed hitters have underperformed this year, with only Freddie Freeman having a great year by his standards. Chicago's right-handers tend to have better averages as well as more power numbers.
Washington, however, has just one lefty on their staff, Matt Crownover. He doesn't factor too prominently in their bullpen usage, though he may get a few batters as a specialist throughout the series. This means the Cubs will get a steady dose of pitchers they'll likely not have the platoon advantage against.
The Nationals will go with three starters during the series, though one starter, Max Scherzer, is dealing with a strained forearm. Despite this being the worse year of his career, Scherzer still has an excellent walk rate and had settled down after a rough start. Now, there's no idea what to expect from him in any start this series.
Peter Solomon was a Cy-Young candidate in the regular season, but he was lit up in the NLDS by Arizona, working to a 9.00 ERA. Solomon didn't give up a home run in the series, but walked six guys and struck out eight in 9 innings. Over the regular season Solomon yielded only 16 home runs in 179.2 innings, striking out 202 in that span. He dominated right-handed pitching though, with righties hitting just .210 with two home runs off him. Both of his starts against the Cubs this year were somewhat anomalous. He suffered an injury during one start, working 3.2 no-hit innings before being pulled from the game by a pulled hamstring. His other start so him go 5 shutout innings, but those innings were interrupted by a rain delay. Solomon got hit hard in the sixth inning of that game.
Still, the fact that it took a rain delay and an injury to get him to give up any runs, is a good omen for the Nationals.
Joe Ross is another guy who limits what the Cubs want to do. He's very stingy with homers, he limits walks, and he's comfortable playing the BABIP game. Ross's BABIP was elevated slightly this year compared with prior seasons, but the Cubs batting average indicates that they don't want to get into a BABIP-type game, preferring to walk and mash. Ross was hit hard in his start against the Cubs this year, allowing six runs in 4 innings in Chicago. Last year, Ross went 4.1 shutout innings in one start, and allowed four runs in 4 innings in the other. In 2019, Ross allowed two runs in 4 innings, and two runs over 7.1 innings. Added up, that's 23.2 innings and 14 runs allowed. He hasn't gone deep, nor has he been effective.
Washington's bullpen was very good against Arizona. Austin Voth went 5 innings and allowed just one run. He'd be the Nationals option to start if Scherzer's injury is worse than feared. Most of the Nationals pitchers tend to be volatile, with high strikeout and walk rates. Andrew Edwards walked 41 in 55.2 innings, striking out 72. Against a patient team like Chicago, that may not fly. Likewise, Blake Treinen walked 44 in 96 innings, striking out 91. Those pitchers limited the home runs, but they're playing with fire with that many men on base.
Jeremy Jeffress may be a good bet for the Nationals. He limits home runs and walks at the cost of fewer strikeouts. He'll have a platoon advantage against the dangerous righties the Cubs emply, and may be able to get Anthony Rizzo and Daryl Wilson to hit weak grounders to second base all day.
Washington has a poor infield defense, but the Cubs try to hit everything in the air anyway. Washington's outfield defense is very strong, led by Victor Robles in Center Field.
Season Series
The two teams split four in Chicago in May, with the Cubs taking the series in Washington in June. Trout and Harper went 0-7 with a walk in the opener, and the Nationals still put up 10 runs on a pair of pitchers who won't play during the series. Harper and Trout both sat the next day, and the Cubs won a battle of back-end starters. Trout sat the following day as well, and a key Trea Turner error allowed Chris Beck to outduel Scherzer for a Cubs win. The finale went 12 innings, with Dan Otero imploding in the finale, allowing the Nationals to pull away with a 10-5 win.
Francisco Lindor singled in the tying run in the top of the ninth of the opening series in Washington, but Mark Zagunis and Freddie Freeman failed to bring him in. Bryce Harper drew a bases loaded walk off Michael Lorenzen in the bottom of the frame to walk it off for the Nats. Kyle Hendricks, Darren O'Day, and Corey Knebel combined on a three-hit shutout the following day. The Cubs took the season series by winning the finale 4-3. In the seventh, Mike Trout came on with two-on, two-out and the Nats down one. Lorenzen struck him out looking to preserve the lead.
Deciding Questions
Will Anthony Rizzo step up to provide some left-handed punch for the Cubs?
Will Kyle Hendricks soft-contact ability befuddle Washington?
Will Scherzer and Ross be able to give the Cubs anything?
Prediction: The offenses are better than the pitching in this series. The Cubs may have some answers for Washington, but Washington's rotation is full of questions. If Hendricks pitches well, the Cubs should have enough offense to win a fun series. Cubs in 6.