Post by Commissioner Erick on Jul 20, 2019 14:22:16 GMT -5
Washington Nationals versus New York Yankees
One-run warriors, the New York Yankees have showcased some postseason magic with six of their nine playoff wins coming by two-runs or fewer. The Yankees have blasted 23 postseason home runs, relying on the long ball to punch their ticket to an American League title and a seat in the World Series. The Nationals, meanwhile, have simply eviscerated NL playoff pitching. Washington is hitting over .300 this postseason, with 30 doubles, 13 steals, tallying up to 7.5 runs a game.
The Yankees have relied on some great work by Aroldis Chapman, gutsy pitching by unheralded starters, and a ton of home runs to make it to the World Series, while Washington has relied on the sheer all-around excellence of its offseason to pulverize the competition, setting up a fun World Series.
Nationals Offense versus Yankees Pitching
Washington's spectacular regular season offense has held up in the postseason. The team has hit righties and lefties alike, though Chris Sale and Skylar Arias had some success. They haven't hit for an ungodly amount of power, but they've hit .312 with 30 doubles. Everything is clicking for them, except maybe their second-tier lefties. They only regulars with a postseason OPS under .749 are Eric Thames (.694), Juan Soto (.662), and now starter Drew Ward (.583). If there are places to attack, those may be the spots. However, two of those three are still contributing. Thames has a .333 OBP to keep the offense moving, while Soto has eight driven in.
The heavy hitters in Washington's lineup have been breathtaking though. Mike Trout has a .479 OBP as pitchers don't want to challenge him. He has only one homer, but he has more walks than strikeouts and a .314 average. Bryce Harper is hitting .472/.548/.806, putting up a prodigious postseason people will talk about years from now when he gets inducted to Cooperstown.
Trea Turner has hit .368 with 11 RBIs and four steals to fuel the bottom of the lineup, often setting up for Mike Zunino, who has a .400 average, three home runs, and eight driven in. There's no rest in the lineup with how the team has hit.
Drew Ward is the one batter who doesn't make sense, but he's a backup thrust into the lineup with Anthony Rendon hurting his back. Rendon had a great series against Arizona, but his injury forced Ward into a full-time role. Ward, however, has some power and his slugged against righties and lefties alike. He'll at least keep a pitcher honest, though there's a lot of whiff in his game.
They'll take on a Yankees team that has only one frontline pitcher, and that pitcher has a brutal playoff career. Severino is a career 0-6, with a 6.94 ERA in nine playoff starts. He still strikes people out and he doesn't walk batters, but he's allowed 11 playoff home runs in 46.2 innings, which is way too much. The Yankees will need him to focus better and put in a strong performance since the Nationals will punish anything worse.
On the other end of the spectrum is the unknown Freicer Perez. Perez doesn't have the regular season success of Severino, he doesn't have any postseason history, he's merely a 25-year-old rookie thrust into the spotlight. His first start of his major league career was a two-hit gem in 6.1 innings against the ferocious White Sox lineup. His next start, he allowed just a solitary run in 4 innings against the Rangers. Perez is a hard thrower with a great changeup to help against lefties. Command is still an issue, but moxie isn't. He's been one of the stories of the playoffs.
Luis Cessa is a control-oriented starter, who has always punched above his weight in the playoffs. Nonetheless, he can be teed up against when facing a free-swinging team. Texas hit him hard in the ALCS for example. However, a more patient White Sox club only tagged him for three runs in 11.1 innings. Counterintuitively, Cessa may be more effective against Washington than Texas because of Washington's patience. The key for the Nationals will be whether Soto and Thames do damage on the strikes Cessa throws. If those two tee off, Cessa may have a disastrous line.
Jesse Hahn will be the other starter for New York, but he may only be able to pitch one game in the series. His best attribute has been his ability to keep the ball in the park. He's never allowed more than 1.3 home runs per nine, and he's surrendered just three home runs this postseason in 23.1 innings. His walk numbers have increased these playoffs as he's danced around some powerful lineups, but he's worked to a 2.70 postseason ERA. Dancing around Washington's lineup will mean facing talented hitters with multiple runners on base. Hahn's ability to avoid the three-run home runs may be his saving grace, but it could be excruciating for Yankees fans.
New York's middle relief didn't have the best regular season, nor has it had the best postseason. Jorge Guzman has struck out 18 batters in 11 innings, but he's also walked nine and allowed 13 hits. Juan de Paula's allowed four home runs in 9.2 postseason innings. Nolan Martinez, Tristan Beck, Tyrell Jenkins, and Austin DeCarr didn't pitch well this year and don't have much postseason experience. It's hard to imagine them succeeding against Washington's lineup, so they'll likely only be summoned in garbage time or deep extra innings.
Giovanny Gallegos and Nick Rumbelow each miss bats and strike people out. Both are right-handers who have also been better against lefties this season, which may be perfect to counter Washington. They may be the key to the series.
Aroldis Chapman had his worst regular season of his career this year, but he still struck out 120 batters in 67.2 innings, still saved 37 games, the most of his career, and still was a dominant force at the back of the pen. He's allowed the long ball this year, 11 of them, but he's only allowed a single run in the playoffs. In fact, with a career 1.00 postseason ERA, he's light's out.
The Yankees had a slightly above average defense this year, with no major standouts or very poor performers. However, Gary Sanchez was really poor throwing runners out, and the Yankees don't have a lefty to control the running game. Washington has been successful on 13 of 14 stolen base attempts this postseason and that should continue.
Yankees Offense versus Nationals Pitching
After a terrible start to the postseason, Cy Young candidate Peter Solomon has improved as the playoffs have gone on. Arizona's balanced approach got to him a little, and Chicago's walks and home runs approach was a better matchup. Solomon has only allowed a single home run and struck out 17 in 18.2 innings, so teams relying on the three-true outcomes may be at a disadvantage. The Yankees are somewhat similar to the Cubs in their reliance on home runs over batting average. Solomon showed the ability to limit damage against that type of team last round.
Joe Ross is also a pitcher with an aversion to home runs. He has a career HR/9 rate under 1.0, and hasn't yielded a home run in three postseason starts. If he keeps up his ability to limit the long ball, the Yankees may be drawing dead. Of all the types of pitchers in baseball, Ross and Solomon may be uniquely suited to slowing down this Yankees attack.
Max Scherzer continues to be the Wild Card. There's no telling if he's going to allow Grand Slams to Daryl Wilson or shut down the Cubs over 7 strong. He was pulled with an injury in his first start this postseason, so he doesn't have a robust body of work. Unearned runs also skew his numbers, as he has a 2.02 ERA, but has allowed seven runs in 12 innings. He's continued to battle through an injured arm as the Nationals lack rotation depth and Scherzer is still a viable option. In the twilight of his career, this is Scherzer's best chance at a title and he's gamely pushing towards it. With his injury and extreme fly ball tendencies, the Yankees may be to get some runs against him.
The Nats all righty bullpen (aside from Matt Crownover) has held up in the playoffs thus far. Blake Treinen has gotten the bulk of the workload, working to a 2.47 ERA in 11.1 innings. He's walked two, fanned 13, and allowed a pair of homers. The Yanks may get a solo home run off him, but Washington has to be confident with him going in the game.
Washington's mixed and matched the rest of the pen. Jorge Crespo and Andrew Edwards have worked a combined 4.1 scoreless innings in seven outings. Matt Crownover has faced 10 batters in seven games, retiring seven of them, and looking better as the playoffs advanced. Eric Pena and Collin Rea have looked good in long-man and mop-up roles, giving the Nationals confidence in them in case Scherzer hits the shelf. The Nationals still have to watch for Crespo giving up home runs, but the pen has held up. Washington has to feel confident with them going into the series.
The Yankees offense has been all about the home run ball in the regular season and in the playoffs. The Yankees have a .310 postseason on-base percentage, but 23 home runs have cured their ills. All nine regulars have a postseason home run, and all but one have multiple homers. Only two batters have an OBP above .339 though. If the Yankees get runners to third, their 26.8% strikeout rate in the postseason would have been the highest in the regular season by 2.7%. The Yankees will struggle to score if they aren't hitting home runs.
Greg Bird is the one batter who is getting on base for the Yankees. He's hitting .327 with a .421 OBP. He only has two home runs and seven driven in, but he's served as a table setter for hitters below him. Unfortunately, most of the Yankees damage is being done early in the lineup. Yeison Corredera has three home runs this postseason, despite a .323 OBP as the leadoff hitter. He's also failed in three of his four steal attempts. Gary Sanchez has had a wonderful postseason with five long balls, 11 driven in, and a .309 average. Gleyber Torres's OBP matches Sanchez at a respectable .339, and Torres has three homers, three steals, and four doubles, doing a little of everything.
Outside of the surprising Jorge Polanco, who has a .288 average, three homers, 11 RBIS, and numerous huge hits this postseason, the bottom of New York's order has been a wasteland of strikeout after strikeout interspersed with the homers. Aaron Judge has 20 strikeouts in 47 at bats, with a .163 average. Clint Frazier has a .120 average and 22 whiffs in 50 at bats. Until vanquishing the Rangers in Game 6 of the ALCS, Dustin Fowler had a single RBI and a .466 postseason OPS.
The Yankees may be able to get some offense with the talents of the middle of the order. Washington will score though, so New York will need to pressure Washington with the bottom order hitters.
Season Series
The two teams have only played one series, with the Yankees taking three of four from Washington in 2019.
The only Nationals hitter who has faced a Yankees pitcher more than 10 times is Mike Trout. He's 8-35 lifetime off Jesse Hahn for a .229 average, with three home runs. Trout is also 3-11 off Luis Severino.
The only Yankees hitter who has faced a Nationals pitcher with regularity is Jorge Polanco, who is 3-13 off Max Scherzer.
Deciding Questions
Will Jesse Hahn's ability to walk hitters, but limit damage, continue against the Nationals?
Which bullpen will be able to best the opposing lineup?
Can the bottom of New York's order produce against Washington?
Prediction: Washington's offense has only been stopped by Chris Sale this postseason, and it's rarely even been slowed down. The Yankees don't have the aces to outdo the full scope of Washington's attack, nor do they have the depth and balance to overwhelm a somewhat questionable staff. Washington went all in on Mike Trout this offseason, and the decision pays off in Game Five. Nationals in 4.
One-run warriors, the New York Yankees have showcased some postseason magic with six of their nine playoff wins coming by two-runs or fewer. The Yankees have blasted 23 postseason home runs, relying on the long ball to punch their ticket to an American League title and a seat in the World Series. The Nationals, meanwhile, have simply eviscerated NL playoff pitching. Washington is hitting over .300 this postseason, with 30 doubles, 13 steals, tallying up to 7.5 runs a game.
The Yankees have relied on some great work by Aroldis Chapman, gutsy pitching by unheralded starters, and a ton of home runs to make it to the World Series, while Washington has relied on the sheer all-around excellence of its offseason to pulverize the competition, setting up a fun World Series.
Nationals Offense versus Yankees Pitching
Washington's spectacular regular season offense has held up in the postseason. The team has hit righties and lefties alike, though Chris Sale and Skylar Arias had some success. They haven't hit for an ungodly amount of power, but they've hit .312 with 30 doubles. Everything is clicking for them, except maybe their second-tier lefties. They only regulars with a postseason OPS under .749 are Eric Thames (.694), Juan Soto (.662), and now starter Drew Ward (.583). If there are places to attack, those may be the spots. However, two of those three are still contributing. Thames has a .333 OBP to keep the offense moving, while Soto has eight driven in.
The heavy hitters in Washington's lineup have been breathtaking though. Mike Trout has a .479 OBP as pitchers don't want to challenge him. He has only one homer, but he has more walks than strikeouts and a .314 average. Bryce Harper is hitting .472/.548/.806, putting up a prodigious postseason people will talk about years from now when he gets inducted to Cooperstown.
Trea Turner has hit .368 with 11 RBIs and four steals to fuel the bottom of the lineup, often setting up for Mike Zunino, who has a .400 average, three home runs, and eight driven in. There's no rest in the lineup with how the team has hit.
Drew Ward is the one batter who doesn't make sense, but he's a backup thrust into the lineup with Anthony Rendon hurting his back. Rendon had a great series against Arizona, but his injury forced Ward into a full-time role. Ward, however, has some power and his slugged against righties and lefties alike. He'll at least keep a pitcher honest, though there's a lot of whiff in his game.
They'll take on a Yankees team that has only one frontline pitcher, and that pitcher has a brutal playoff career. Severino is a career 0-6, with a 6.94 ERA in nine playoff starts. He still strikes people out and he doesn't walk batters, but he's allowed 11 playoff home runs in 46.2 innings, which is way too much. The Yankees will need him to focus better and put in a strong performance since the Nationals will punish anything worse.
On the other end of the spectrum is the unknown Freicer Perez. Perez doesn't have the regular season success of Severino, he doesn't have any postseason history, he's merely a 25-year-old rookie thrust into the spotlight. His first start of his major league career was a two-hit gem in 6.1 innings against the ferocious White Sox lineup. His next start, he allowed just a solitary run in 4 innings against the Rangers. Perez is a hard thrower with a great changeup to help against lefties. Command is still an issue, but moxie isn't. He's been one of the stories of the playoffs.
Luis Cessa is a control-oriented starter, who has always punched above his weight in the playoffs. Nonetheless, he can be teed up against when facing a free-swinging team. Texas hit him hard in the ALCS for example. However, a more patient White Sox club only tagged him for three runs in 11.1 innings. Counterintuitively, Cessa may be more effective against Washington than Texas because of Washington's patience. The key for the Nationals will be whether Soto and Thames do damage on the strikes Cessa throws. If those two tee off, Cessa may have a disastrous line.
Jesse Hahn will be the other starter for New York, but he may only be able to pitch one game in the series. His best attribute has been his ability to keep the ball in the park. He's never allowed more than 1.3 home runs per nine, and he's surrendered just three home runs this postseason in 23.1 innings. His walk numbers have increased these playoffs as he's danced around some powerful lineups, but he's worked to a 2.70 postseason ERA. Dancing around Washington's lineup will mean facing talented hitters with multiple runners on base. Hahn's ability to avoid the three-run home runs may be his saving grace, but it could be excruciating for Yankees fans.
New York's middle relief didn't have the best regular season, nor has it had the best postseason. Jorge Guzman has struck out 18 batters in 11 innings, but he's also walked nine and allowed 13 hits. Juan de Paula's allowed four home runs in 9.2 postseason innings. Nolan Martinez, Tristan Beck, Tyrell Jenkins, and Austin DeCarr didn't pitch well this year and don't have much postseason experience. It's hard to imagine them succeeding against Washington's lineup, so they'll likely only be summoned in garbage time or deep extra innings.
Giovanny Gallegos and Nick Rumbelow each miss bats and strike people out. Both are right-handers who have also been better against lefties this season, which may be perfect to counter Washington. They may be the key to the series.
Aroldis Chapman had his worst regular season of his career this year, but he still struck out 120 batters in 67.2 innings, still saved 37 games, the most of his career, and still was a dominant force at the back of the pen. He's allowed the long ball this year, 11 of them, but he's only allowed a single run in the playoffs. In fact, with a career 1.00 postseason ERA, he's light's out.
The Yankees had a slightly above average defense this year, with no major standouts or very poor performers. However, Gary Sanchez was really poor throwing runners out, and the Yankees don't have a lefty to control the running game. Washington has been successful on 13 of 14 stolen base attempts this postseason and that should continue.
Yankees Offense versus Nationals Pitching
After a terrible start to the postseason, Cy Young candidate Peter Solomon has improved as the playoffs have gone on. Arizona's balanced approach got to him a little, and Chicago's walks and home runs approach was a better matchup. Solomon has only allowed a single home run and struck out 17 in 18.2 innings, so teams relying on the three-true outcomes may be at a disadvantage. The Yankees are somewhat similar to the Cubs in their reliance on home runs over batting average. Solomon showed the ability to limit damage against that type of team last round.
Joe Ross is also a pitcher with an aversion to home runs. He has a career HR/9 rate under 1.0, and hasn't yielded a home run in three postseason starts. If he keeps up his ability to limit the long ball, the Yankees may be drawing dead. Of all the types of pitchers in baseball, Ross and Solomon may be uniquely suited to slowing down this Yankees attack.
Max Scherzer continues to be the Wild Card. There's no telling if he's going to allow Grand Slams to Daryl Wilson or shut down the Cubs over 7 strong. He was pulled with an injury in his first start this postseason, so he doesn't have a robust body of work. Unearned runs also skew his numbers, as he has a 2.02 ERA, but has allowed seven runs in 12 innings. He's continued to battle through an injured arm as the Nationals lack rotation depth and Scherzer is still a viable option. In the twilight of his career, this is Scherzer's best chance at a title and he's gamely pushing towards it. With his injury and extreme fly ball tendencies, the Yankees may be to get some runs against him.
The Nats all righty bullpen (aside from Matt Crownover) has held up in the playoffs thus far. Blake Treinen has gotten the bulk of the workload, working to a 2.47 ERA in 11.1 innings. He's walked two, fanned 13, and allowed a pair of homers. The Yanks may get a solo home run off him, but Washington has to be confident with him going in the game.
Washington's mixed and matched the rest of the pen. Jorge Crespo and Andrew Edwards have worked a combined 4.1 scoreless innings in seven outings. Matt Crownover has faced 10 batters in seven games, retiring seven of them, and looking better as the playoffs advanced. Eric Pena and Collin Rea have looked good in long-man and mop-up roles, giving the Nationals confidence in them in case Scherzer hits the shelf. The Nationals still have to watch for Crespo giving up home runs, but the pen has held up. Washington has to feel confident with them going into the series.
The Yankees offense has been all about the home run ball in the regular season and in the playoffs. The Yankees have a .310 postseason on-base percentage, but 23 home runs have cured their ills. All nine regulars have a postseason home run, and all but one have multiple homers. Only two batters have an OBP above .339 though. If the Yankees get runners to third, their 26.8% strikeout rate in the postseason would have been the highest in the regular season by 2.7%. The Yankees will struggle to score if they aren't hitting home runs.
Greg Bird is the one batter who is getting on base for the Yankees. He's hitting .327 with a .421 OBP. He only has two home runs and seven driven in, but he's served as a table setter for hitters below him. Unfortunately, most of the Yankees damage is being done early in the lineup. Yeison Corredera has three home runs this postseason, despite a .323 OBP as the leadoff hitter. He's also failed in three of his four steal attempts. Gary Sanchez has had a wonderful postseason with five long balls, 11 driven in, and a .309 average. Gleyber Torres's OBP matches Sanchez at a respectable .339, and Torres has three homers, three steals, and four doubles, doing a little of everything.
Outside of the surprising Jorge Polanco, who has a .288 average, three homers, 11 RBIS, and numerous huge hits this postseason, the bottom of New York's order has been a wasteland of strikeout after strikeout interspersed with the homers. Aaron Judge has 20 strikeouts in 47 at bats, with a .163 average. Clint Frazier has a .120 average and 22 whiffs in 50 at bats. Until vanquishing the Rangers in Game 6 of the ALCS, Dustin Fowler had a single RBI and a .466 postseason OPS.
The Yankees may be able to get some offense with the talents of the middle of the order. Washington will score though, so New York will need to pressure Washington with the bottom order hitters.
Season Series
The two teams have only played one series, with the Yankees taking three of four from Washington in 2019.
The only Nationals hitter who has faced a Yankees pitcher more than 10 times is Mike Trout. He's 8-35 lifetime off Jesse Hahn for a .229 average, with three home runs. Trout is also 3-11 off Luis Severino.
The only Yankees hitter who has faced a Nationals pitcher with regularity is Jorge Polanco, who is 3-13 off Max Scherzer.
Deciding Questions
Will Jesse Hahn's ability to walk hitters, but limit damage, continue against the Nationals?
Which bullpen will be able to best the opposing lineup?
Can the bottom of New York's order produce against Washington?
Prediction: Washington's offense has only been stopped by Chris Sale this postseason, and it's rarely even been slowed down. The Yankees don't have the aces to outdo the full scope of Washington's attack, nor do they have the depth and balance to overwhelm a somewhat questionable staff. Washington went all in on Mike Trout this offseason, and the decision pays off in Game Five. Nationals in 4.