Game of the Week: September 1: PHI @ STL

[Commissioner Erick]

Philadelphia Phillies (64-72) @ St. Louis Cardinals (83-53)


PHI: Jason Nix (4-4, 3.52)
STL: ? ? (?-?, ?.??)


Phillies 3 Key Stats


.814: Seth Beer’s OPS: Beer has led the NL in OPS in six of his last nine years, cementing himself as perhaps the game’s most feared offensive player during that time. He’s been the foundation of Philadelphia’s decade-long run of success, blasting the Phillies to eight playoff berths since 2020. This year, his numbers have been unremarkable. .814 is a strong OPS. 30 Home runs is a fantastic number. However, there hasn’t been his past where every poorly thrown pitch would likely be a homer, every strong offering could still be flicked for a hit, and any ruse to get him to chase would be spat on as Beer walked to First. Now 34, and despite coming off the best year of his career, we’re seeing Beer appear mortal for the first time. Matt Grubs is hoping Seth is just as potent as ever as he looks to rebound next year, but this could be the very first sign of Beer going a little bit stale.

.648: Philadelphia’s OPS against left-handers: Both Beer and the Phillies have been strong against right-handed pitching this year. The team is 52-53 against right-handers, basically a draw, and the team is sixth in OPS against righties. These aren’t spectacular numbers, but they aren’t anything unhealthy. However, the Phillies haven’t touched lefties this year. Their .648 OPS against southpaws is dead last in the National League. Naturally, Philadelphia has a lefty-heavy lineup and those hitters have struggled against same-side pitching. The disappointing thing, though, has been the lack of production from the team’s righties. Royce Lewis has a .656 OPS against lefties, Destiny Galemberti has a .518 mark, and recently cut Anderson Franco’s .492 mark was so bad, he’s now collecting unemployment. Plenty of things have gone wrong for the Phillies, but the complete disintegration of their right-handed bats has sabotaged the club’s quest to repeat as NL East champs for the fourth straight year.

19: Strikeouts by Jason Nix: Philadelphia has gotten decent work from fifth starter Jason Nix. He has a 4-4 record in eight starts with a 3.52 ERA. He really needs his defense to put in work though, because the rookie has struck out just 19 batters in 53.2 innings. He has the same number of walks for a terrible 1:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His strikeout rate is easily the lowest in the league among pitchers with 50 innings, as he’s whiffing just 8.3% of batters. St. Louis doesn’t have a great BABIP for all their prowess—could this be advantage Nix?


Cardinals 3 Key Stats

3: Rookies in the starting lineup: Thriving with Ethan Mikolajczyk and Andy Stewart in the lineup, St. Louis has added top 50 prospect Matt Sanchez to the team. Like the rest of St. Louis’ prospects, he’s taken off in the majors. Walking eight times in 16 games, he has a very healthy .366 OBP to start his career, plus three doubles and three homers. Sanchez doesn’t play much defense and he’s aggressive at the plate, but he makes loud contact, and hear of his power should lead to some walks. Meanwhile, Stewart already has 21 homers and Mikolajczyk has a .339 average, making this year a defining season as it marks the appearance of three future stars popping up in the St. Louis lineup at the same time.

10: Teams Willi Castro has played for in eight years: With Joe Mills on the IL, St. Louis has turned to vagabond Willi Castro to man Second Base for the time being. Since being traded from Miami to Detroit in 2024, Castro has played for an additional eight other teams. A solid doubles-first Second Baseman, Castro’s last good year was in 2027 when he hit .356 and produced 2.2 WAR in just 35 starts for the Red Sox. He’s been mostly a bit player since then, putting up slightly below league average OPS+ marks, and averages around .260-.270. He’s hit .302 with three homers and three doubles in just 47 plate appearances for the Cards however, teaming with a useful 39 games in San Francisco to give him 1.1 WAR on the year. Playing for just a minimum contract, he’s been a great piece for the Cardinals.

1.55: Makato Aduwa’s ERA: Aduwa’s a 32-year pitching his first season in the PBA. A standout in Japan, Aduwa led the Japanese Central League in starts two years ago, in wins, strikeouts, and WAR in 2024 and 2028. He signed a cheap contract with St. Louis and is producing the best full-season ERA of his career, despite coming from a league with depressed offenses. Aduwa’s allowed just three homers in 87.1 innings. With a .226 BABIP and just 16 walks, his 0.82 WHIP has been exceptional. It’s allowed him to go 10-1 this year. He’ll give up a ton of grounders, making Ronnie Mauricio a treasured friend. For all the talk of St. Louis’ bullpen process, their ability to identify talent has also helped the unit become elite.


Questions for the GMs:

For Matt Grubs, this season feels like a 10th percentile outcome for the club. What lies in store for the future? Tearing things down or retooling for a run next year?

What call ups will you make now that the month has reached September?

You’ve moved A.J. Masucci into the starting lineup from the pen. Why have you made that move?

For Tim Lentz, you signed Willie Castro to a cheap deal in the offseason and it looks like it’s paying off. Why did you target him specifically?

When Nomar Mazara returns, will he be a starting player again?

Mark Warf is likely going on the IL, plus you have two open roster spots with roster expansion. Who will you call up to fill the extra spots?


TRIVIA: Since 2027, who are the only two players with over a 1.000 OPS during that timeframe?

[Grubs - Philly]

This season feels like a 10th percentile outcome for the club. What lies in store for the future? Tearing things down or retooling for a run next year?

It feels that way to me, too, so I appreciate the recognition. It's astounding to me that a team which scored almost 1,000 runs last year and led the PBA in every offensive category except walks (3rd) and stolen bases (11th) could be on pace to score 717 runs this year. Pitching improved within the starting lineup, but three of my five starting pitchers have been out for weeks with season-ending injuries. Guys like Jose Quesada and Josh Agboola are among those who took big dev hits with OOTP24. Now I have Cole Ragans and his 4.40 ERA locked down for $6 million at least through next year and a bullpen that needs to be overhauled. I don't know what I'll do next year. It's hard to plan when you get the rug pulled out from under you so quickly.

What call ups will you make now that the month has reached September?

None. I've had to bring up guys to patch injury holes, so we'll ride it out with 26.

You’ve moved A.J. Masucci into the starting lineup from the pen. Why have you made that move?

Desperation. He's already back in the bullpen, where he's had a 1.08 ERA and 0.48 WHIP since the trade deadline. He still wants to be a starter and make $23 million a year.

[stlgm]

For Tim Lentz, you signed Willie Castro to a cheap deal in the offseason and it looks like it’s paying off. Why did you target him specifically?



-We selected Kyle McFadden in the Rule V draft in hopes that he would be an adequate utility guy for us. As the season went on, it was obvious that he was in over his head and not someone we would want to trust with any meaningful playing time down the stretch. When San Francisco released Willi in June, he caught our attention. Castro brings a veteran leadership to the clubhouse and can play any position on the infield. While Mills being injured obviously is not what we wanted, Willi has done a great job filling in for him.

When Nomar Mazara returns, will he be a starting player again?


-Mazara returns tonight and will be starting in left field and batting #5 in the line up. That should be his spot against lefties the rest of the season. Sanchez has been spectacular in Mazara's absence, but he still struggles against southpaws.


Mark Warf is likely going on the IL, plus you have two open roster spots with roster expansion. Who will you call up to fill the extra spots?

-Warf has indeed landed on the IL. We hope to have him back for the postseason. Mazara has been called up to take his spot. The second spot will go to middle relief veteran Joe Ferland. Ferland had a bit of a resurgence in the Meridian League last season, racking up a league leading 39 saves with a 1.80 ERA. He has been good in AAA for us this season and has earned a shot down the stretch. The final spot we're calling up Frank Zendejas from Double A. Scouts tell us that big league bats will really struggle to make solid contact against Frankie, and he's a great guy to have in the clubhouse. Frank's 2032 big league tryout starts tonight.

[Commissioner Erick]

Cardinals 5 - Phillies 4


WP: E. Pardinho (2-3)
LP: K. Furukubo (2-1)

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Philadelphia Phillies, 5-4. Doing his part was right fielder Jung-hoo Lee, who went 2-4 with a double and a walk. He scored 2 runs and drove in 2. With the win, St. Louis upped its record to 84-53.

The game was still up for grabs in the bottom of the ninth. With no one out, Lee hit a curveball from Kiyoshi Furukubo for a run-scoring single. The Cardinals, in dramatic fashion, had a walk-off win.

Lee said this kind of win gives the team "a buzz."


Questions for the GMs:


For Matt Grubs, Jason Nix with a solid outing out there. What have you thought of his performance this year?

Pedro Martinez went 0-3 and is now hitting .238 with 2 homers. Will he be back on your team next year?

You have a number of players up for arbitration next year. Will any be non-tender candidates?

For Tim Lentz, a clutch pinch hit from David Witter late. What did you think of your manager bot's performance?

You hit Nomar Mazara fifth, despite him facing a same-side pitcher. Why did you git him so high up?

You were disappointed in Eric Pardinho's start, but he had a big ninth, striking out three to get out of a self-induced jam. Do you have more confidence in him than you did earlier in the year?


TRIVIA 1: Who is the only qualified hitter in the AL with an average under .200?

TRIVIA 2: Which Brazilian pitcher has the most career strikeouts?

[Grubs - Philly]

First, thanks for the chance to revisit this lovely game and series.

Jason Nix with a solid outing out there. What have you thought of his performance this year?
- He’s shown great progression and seems to have a mature approach. Pitchers who don’t strike out a lot of guys have been pleasant surprises in Philly. It’s not universal success and some of our defenses have limited success for pitchers like that, but certainly not enough to pass them by as a rule.

Pedro Martinez went 0-3 and is now hitting .238 with 2 homers. Will he be back on your team next year?
- He will. Pedro is still developing his approach and his defense at third will keep him in the mix. Down the stretch, we’re going to give him more rest and let Allan Whitmore do whatever it is he’s doing this year.

You have a number of players up for arbitration next year. Will any be non-tender candidates?
- Checking… You know, our offseason really starts with player options for Beer and Lewis. That’s almost $50 million that we’ll either have locked up or have to spend to replace two traditionally productive players. Neither has seen a development hit, so I expect positive regression.
After that – and more to your point – I think the biggest question will be catching. Yeison Ceballo is in line for a sizable raise and Juan Herrera will see another bump. They’re both worth it, but it might be KC-style overkill at catcher. El-Shamy Jr. Murimi is waiting at AAA and with a name like that (which I enjoy saying in a Tony Bennett voice) he deserves a chance.
I’ll take a hard look at Mauler Martel and Josh Agboola. Cammett and Dombrowski will stay on.

[stlgm]

For Tim Lentz, a clutch pinch hit from David Witter late. What did you think of your manager bot's performance?

-It worked, so it's difficult to be upset with the decision. Walker has been better against RHP than LHP this season, so it could be argued that it didn't make sense to pinch hit for him, but Witter's ability against RHP is also phenomenal. It's one thing I'm excited about this squad going into the postseason, not only have we assembled an explosive lineup, but we have bats that can come off the bench late in the game and make an impact. 


You hit Nomar Mazara fifth, despite him facing a same-side pitcher. Why did you git him so high up?



-The entire reason for Mazara's return to The Nest is he's the rare case of a left handed batter that doesn't struggle mightily against southpaws. The Nest showed with Isiaiah High last season that it's a black hole for right handed bats...so any chance we can get to add a left handed bat that can handle lefty pitching, we're going to jump at it. Mazara has been better against LHP this season and will continue the role he played on Monday for the rest of the season.

You were disappointed in Eric Pardinho's start, but he had a big ninth, striking out three to get out of a self-induced jam. Do you have more confidence in him than you did earlier in the year?

-Pardinho just got promoted back to the stopper role for Monday's game against San Francisco, which speaks volumes to how he's earned our trust back within the organization. He's had a sub-3 ERA each of the last three months and is striking out batters at 10+ per 9 innings...it's what we expected from him when we traded for him. He'll be pitching plenty of meaningful innings the rest of the way.

[Commissioner Erick]

TRIVIA 1: Matt correctly guessed Roderick Dalton and Bobby Siegel

[Commissioner Erick]

TRIVIA 1: Zigmo correctly guessed Hector Avilla.

TRIVIA 2: Luke correctly guessed Eric Pardinho