2022 NL Wildcard Game
Dec 11, 2019 23:43:11 GMT -5
Commissioner Erick, Ben_Dodgers, and 1 more like this
Post by brewersgm on Dec 11, 2019 23:43:11 GMT -5
Miami Marlins (88-74) @ Washington Nationals (90-72)
The last time the Miami Marlins made the playoffs neither of these teams had the same name, the Miami Marlins were the Florida Marlins and the Washington Nationals were located in Canada. Smartphones did not exist, there were only five Star Wars movies, 50 Cent's "In da Club" was the top charting song and "The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" had not yet been released in theaters. Most the current Marlins starting lineup was in elementary school. It has been a long 19 years but the Marlins have made it back into the postseason for the third time in franchise history, once again as a Wild Card. The franchise has yet to win a division title but it has never been eliminated in the postseason. That's right, each of the past two times the Marlins made it into October, they won the World Series. Will their streak continue? Standing in the way of the Marlins are their NL East rivals, the World Series defending champion Washington Nationals. The Nationals will be making their fourth straight postseason appearance and their second appearance as a Wild Card. The winner of this match-up will advance to face yet another NL East team in the Philadelphia Phillies. The NL East is the toughest division in the PBA. It is likely that the Marlins and Nationals would have won the NL Central or West as they both had better records and run differentials than those division winners, but due to the steep competition in the East they are wild cards. Let's break down the teams and see who has the edge in this one game playoff.
Pitching
Marlins
Starter
On the mound for the Marlins will be the 29 year old, 6'2" 205 pounder LHP Daniel "Van Man" Norris. Norris has a 4 pitch arsenal, featuring a plus fastball, curveball and slider as well as an average changeup. Norris started 32 games in the regular season for Marlins posting 3.61 ERA and 172 strikeouts over 174.2 innings pitched. His peripherals were very solid posting a 95 FIP- and striking out 8.8 per 9 innings while walking 3.2, good for a 2.76 K/BB. Norris was not Miami's best SP this season, that honor belongs to either Archie Bradley or FA steal Takihiro Nakamoto. However he is starting this game thanks to the Nationals vulnerability towards lefty pitching. This season Norris had six starts vs the Nationals and never allowed more than 2 runs in any of them, good for a 1.62 ERA. The Marlins hope he can continue to produce similar results in this game and if he does it is likely the Marlins will advance to play the Phillies.
Bullpen
The Marlins bullpen was elite. They posted a 3.40 ERA and 3.90 FIP, both marks good for 2nd in the NL. It features six relievers who posted at least a 10 K/9. The 1-2 righty/lefty punch of Jacob Barnes and Dario Alvarez consumed the most innings for the Fish. Both soaked up 90 plus innings a piece. After these two came a second 1-2 righty/lefty punch of Nick Wittgren and Buddy Boshers, who each had over 70 IP. Boshers will not appear in this game however as he is out with an uncertain return date thanks to elbow inflammation. The Marlins pen was capped by closer Nick Burdi who finished the season with 31 saves and a 12.5 K/9.
Nationals
Starter
On the mound for the Nats will be the 26 year old, 6'4" 200 pounder Peter Solomon. Solomon is one of the best young starters in the game. He led the majors in ERA for a second straight season posting a 2.66 ERA over 32 starts. Solomon logged 204 strikeouts over 199.1 IP. Solomon's best pitch is his fastball which combined with elite movement racks up K's. He was acquired via trade with Houston in the 2018 season. Solomon produced a 75 FIP- , struck out 9.2 per 9 and walked only 2.6 batters per 9. Solomon started 3 times vs the Marlins this season and had a 3.79 ERA across those starts, over a full run higher than his regular season 2.66. This discrepancy was due to a disastrous August 3rd start on the road in Miami. Solomon was shelled for 6 runs in 4.2 innings, tying with a later start against the Padres for his worst outing of the season. Solomon was spotted clubbing in South Beach earlier in the day and there is some speculation this led to the rough outing. In his other two starts against the Fish, Solomon dominated in DC, pitching 14.1 innings and only allowing 2 runs.
Bullpen
The Nats bullpen was horrendous. They were 14th in bullpen ERA posting a rough 4.45 ERA, however the starting pitching was so elite that the team still finished 2nd in pitching WAR in the NL. Nonetheless there were a few bright spots. 24 year old Jon Carter was effectively wild in his debut year in DC. Carter returned from a concussion that caused him to miss the entire 2021 season. He managed a 2.80 ERA despite walking over 7 per 9 innings. Carter was helped out by an extremely low home run rate of only 0.4 per 9 innings, and an elite 13.7 K/9. Expect a lot of walks and strikeouts if he should enter the game. Veterans Blake Treinen and Jorge Crespo had decent seasons. The rest are not worth writing about. Perhaps the Nationals will turn to some of their starters to finish the game after Solomon.
Advantage- Even. Solomon is a much better pitcher than Norris but the Washington bullpen is very questionable after he leaves. Miami's elite pen could mean the difference in the late innings, but it is also hard to bet against a guy like Solomon.
Lineups and Defense
Marlins
The Marlins had 7 players post higher than a 100 wRC+. The Marlins young core is centered around SS Nick Gordon (133 wRC+), 3B Blake Tiberi (124 wRC+) and CF Jeren Kendall (111 wRC+). This trio combined for 13.56 WAR. Kendall is nursing a sprained elbow but that should only affect his throwing arm. The team finished 6th in runs scored with 734 and 5th in wOBA with .319. It is a deep lineup really only falling off after the 7th spot in the order when defensive catcher Bruce Maxwell comes up. The Marlins scored around 4.5 runs per game but against the Nationals that number jumps to 5.57, this helped the team win the season series against the Nationals 12 games to 7.
The Marlins defense finished 3rd in the NL in Zone Rating with a +24.3 led by Jeren Kendall's +13.7. Although Nick Gordon can slug, he has posted a negative ZR since coming over from Minnesotia. His double play counterpart 2B Willi Castro has picked up the slack posting a positive ZR from the right side. Catcher Bruce Maxell posted a negative -0.3 ZR but his ability to work with the Miami pitching staff more than makes up for it. Nick Gordon is a weak link but led by Kendall this team is strong up the middle.
Nationals
The Nationals had 6 players post a wRC+ over 100 but their lineup outscored Miami's thanks to elite top end talent. You won't find a better (or more expensive) 3/4 tandem than Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Those two alone posted 14.53 WAR, higher than Miami's trio. They combined for 80 homers, 58 doubles and 200 runs. Victor Robles might not be a 7 WAR guy like those two but he posted a great 4.7 WAR himself and led the Nats in hits with 192. Thanks to these 3 and contributions from others such as Eric Thames and his 43 bombs the Nationals finished 2nd in runs scored in the NL (802) and 2nd in wOBA (.332). The Nationals averaged 4.95 runs per game, and 4.31 vs the Marlins, so the Marlins were able to hold the Nationals lineup in check some. This was not the case in the teams last series in August. The Nats swept the Marlins over 4 games by a combined score of 31-3.
The Nationals defense was 7th in the NL but overall a net negative 0.7 Zone Rating. Robles put up a solid +4.6 Zone Rating in CF, and Raul Mondesi was average with +0.3 at 2B. Trea Turner was simply awful defensively at SS letting balls go by him on the way to a -8.7 Zone Rating. "Past a diving Turner!" was a common radio call uttered by Charlie Slowes and Dave Jageler for Nats fans this season. Daniel Flores was very good in his debut at Catcher with a +2.9 Zone Rating. Going forward he looks to be an elite defensive catcher and framer, helping to improve the already immensely talented Nationals rotation. Still it's hard to overlook what a massive blackhole Turner was this season for the Nationals D.
Advantage-
Lineup- Nationals. Trout and Harper are absolute superstars anchoring one of the best lineups in the league. Miami might be deeper than the Nationals but they do not have the same kind of elite offensive forces. A bad game from Trout or Harper could doom the Nationals though in a one game series.
Defense- Marlins. Neither team has a great defensive SS but the Marlins defense as a whole is much better than the Nationals.
Key questions:
Can Daniel Norris continue his string of excellent starts against the Nats thanks to their vulnerability against lefties (they went 20-25 vs lefties in 2022)?
Will the Nationals pen hold up if the game becomes tight? Carter had a great rookie year but he is a wild child.
Will the depth of the Marlins lineup come through or will the Nationals superstar power carry the day?
Prediction-
Nationals 3-2
Pete Solomon pitches a strong outing of 7 IP 1 ER 9 Ks, but the Nationals bullpen blows it late on a Blake Tiberi RBI groundout. The game goes into extras and Harper hits a walk off homer after Norris is out of the game. Miami ends the season with 1-8 skid in October if you include the regular season. However this time fans don't have to wait 19 years for another shot as the Marlins young core should have them contending for seasons to come.
