Post by Commissioner Erick on Dec 23, 2019 10:56:55 GMT -5
Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Considering the strengths of the NL West and AL East, this World Series matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Arizona Diamondbacks would be considered a surprising one in the preseason, let alone on June 2, when Arizona was 18-29, and 13 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. Arizona made the postseason in 2021, but with a new GM and new roster, it seemed like the playoffs weren't in the cards. Toronto meanwhile didn't make many major additions and was coming off three straight losing seasons. Predicting these two as their League Champions would take some foresight.
The result of the matchup, is one we've never seen before. Instead of established behemoths, usually built upon juggernaut offenses, or spectacular pitchers, we have a matchup of teams who excel with speed, with contact, and with pitching depth. It'll be a World Series unlike any other, and one team will be crowned the best team in baseball.
Blue Jays Offense versus Diamondbacks Pitching
Toronto has averaged a touch over 4 runs a game this postseason, but they've only scored 21 runs in their last seven games. It hasn't been the most dynamic offense, though a lot of that comes down to facing star-laden staffs in Chicago and Tampa Bay. Toronto's offense hasn't been as contact oriented in the playoffs, as their walk rats have ticked down, and their whiff rates have gone up. Their power has increased to compensate. Rowdy Tellez, Luis Alexander Basabe, and ALCS Game 5 hero Connor Scott have each hit three homers in the playoffs.
The Blue Jays left-handed hitters have been better than their right-handed hitters, a trend that has carried over from the regular season. Toronto has been better against left-handed pitching, ironically, as the Blue Jays lefties have put up runs on Carlos Rodon and Blake Snell this postseason. Accepted wisdom is still that left-handed pitching may be better against Toronto than right-handed arms. None of Toronto's pure righties have an OPS above .690, and only Logan Warmoth is hitting well as a switch hitter. Instead, it's Connor Scott's .974, Tellez' 1.189 OPS, and Warmoth's .950 OPS that have carried the team this postseason.
That offense will take on an Arizona team that has relied heavily on four arms this postseason—Marco Gonzalez, Brandon Finnegan, Chang-min Shim, and Silvino Bracho. Those four arms have combined to throw 45.1 innings, with a 1.99 ERA, a 3-1 record, and five saves. Nobody else has an ERA under 3.86 aside from Edubray Ramos, who hasn't allowed a run in 3.2 innings.
The rest of Arizona's rotation, outside of Gonzalez, is being held together with duct tape. Jake Odorizzi has allowed five runs in less than five innings in each of his two starts, while Aaron Blair allowed six runs in 9 innings in a pair of starts against the Phillies, and doesn't inspire much confidence. If Toronto has turned into a team of sluggers against righties, then it's hard to expect Blair and Odorizzi keeping them in check.
Frank Duncan has an ERA over 11 as a long man this postseason, while Ariel Jurado's had one bad appearance and three strong ones this postseason. Jurado doesn't allow many home runs, making him a stronger option to see time as Arizona's defense can reel in the fly balls he allows. Still, there's evidence that Toronto can jump out to big leads in any game Marco Gonzalez doesn't start.
If Arizona can navigate those potential pitfalls, the back end of their bullpen has been terrific. Ramos has a 3.07 career postseason ERA. Finnegan has a 0.61 career postseason ERA. Bracho has saved four games in his five outings this year. After handling Philadelphia's lefty-leaning lineup, Arizona shouldn't have a major issue with Toronto's lineup.
Diamondbacks Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
Toronto's pitching has been sensational this entire playoff run. They have a 3.42 ERA, and have arrived 11 runs in their past seven games, a number that includes six runs allowed in their last game. Outside of a start he had to make on short rest, T. J. Zeuch has been strong as a starter, with a 4.05 ERA this postseason. Thomas Szapucki, meanwhile, has made his presence known on the big stage, with a 4-0 record, and a 2.52 playoff ERA. Those two give Toronto a dynamic one-two at the top of their rotation.
Their three and four spots are more questionable. They went with Michael Kopech for a start in Game 2 of the ALCS and he delivered nine strikeouts and no runs in 4.2 innings. They also went with a bullpen game for another start, allowing seven hits and striking out 15 in their Game 4 win. If bullpen dominance and Kopech gems are going to be on the docket for the World Series, there won't be much Arizona's offense can do.
Toronto's bullpen has been exceptional during the postseason as well. Joe Biagini has six saves, allowing just a single run in 11.1 innings. Danny Barnes has worked to a 2.08 ERA with 11 strikeouts in 8.2 innings setting him up. Eduardo Paredes had a sparkling 1.42 ERA before he gave up four runs while exhausted in the final game of the ALCS, while Sam Dyson hasn't struck out a batter in 3 innings, but he hasn't given up a run either as Toronto's defense has backed him up.
This is what Arizona's offense will have to deal with. The top two hitters in their lineup, Greg Allen, and Ryan Johnson, have combined to go 16-92 for a .174 average, but the rest of their offense has produced. Yunior Severino has four home runs, three doubles, a triple, and a .692 slugging mark. Rookie Doorbell Gestoso has a .320 average in his first playoffs. Isan Diaz is batting an even .300 with three home runs. Brandon Drury is hitting .304. Arizona hasn't killed opponents with home runs, and the top of their oder is struggling, but everyone else is getting on base and putting pressure on defenses.
A huge element of Arizona's attack has been its speed. The Diamondbacks have stolen 11 bases in 14 attempts this postseason, running early, running often, and running successfully. The Blue Jays pitching has been outstanding, but they're 0-2 in throwing out baserunners in the playoffs, all in Game 5 of the ALCS. Reese McGuire did not have a good year throwing out baserunners this season, and outside of some mid-tier relievers, most of Toronto's pitchers were terrible at holding runners. Base-running may be the key to Arizona unlocking offense that Toronto has limited.
Arizona's offense could be juiced by the return of Garrett Stubbs after Plantar Fasciitis. Stubbs had a remarkable postseason moment in 2019. Playing for Houston in a tie game in the 12th inning of Game 7 of the ALDS, he threw out Nick Gordon trying to steal second base as the winning run. He later strained his calf but still scored the winning run from second base on a single in the bottom of the inning to help Houston advance. Stubbs is a postseason gamer.
Season Series
The teams did not play this year. Toronto won two of three back in 2018, but Arizona won three of four in 2021.
Significant Batter-Pitcher Matchups
Joey Rickard vs T.J. Zeuch: 2-11, 0 HR
Rowdy Tellez vs Jake Odorizzi: 5-14, 2 HR
Jonathan Villar vs Marco Gonzalez: 1-12, 0 HR
Jonathan Villar vs Brandon Finnegan: 1-11, 0 HR
Deciding Questions:
Which bullpen will do better in the series?
Can Arizona survive the Aaron Blair and Jake Odorizzi innings?
IS the way the Arizona heart of the order hit against the Phillies, the new normal for them?
Prediction: It will come down to pitching. The Diamondbacks will be throwing a top-line starter twice in the series with the Blue Jays capable of sending one out four times. Michael Kopech also has more upside than Blair and Odorizzi. With Toronto regaining its power, and defensive capable of shutting off the gaps, they'll keep Arizona from putting up crooked innings. Blue Jays in 5
Considering the strengths of the NL West and AL East, this World Series matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Arizona Diamondbacks would be considered a surprising one in the preseason, let alone on June 2, when Arizona was 18-29, and 13 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. Arizona made the postseason in 2021, but with a new GM and new roster, it seemed like the playoffs weren't in the cards. Toronto meanwhile didn't make many major additions and was coming off three straight losing seasons. Predicting these two as their League Champions would take some foresight.
The result of the matchup, is one we've never seen before. Instead of established behemoths, usually built upon juggernaut offenses, or spectacular pitchers, we have a matchup of teams who excel with speed, with contact, and with pitching depth. It'll be a World Series unlike any other, and one team will be crowned the best team in baseball.
Blue Jays Offense versus Diamondbacks Pitching
Toronto has averaged a touch over 4 runs a game this postseason, but they've only scored 21 runs in their last seven games. It hasn't been the most dynamic offense, though a lot of that comes down to facing star-laden staffs in Chicago and Tampa Bay. Toronto's offense hasn't been as contact oriented in the playoffs, as their walk rats have ticked down, and their whiff rates have gone up. Their power has increased to compensate. Rowdy Tellez, Luis Alexander Basabe, and ALCS Game 5 hero Connor Scott have each hit three homers in the playoffs.
The Blue Jays left-handed hitters have been better than their right-handed hitters, a trend that has carried over from the regular season. Toronto has been better against left-handed pitching, ironically, as the Blue Jays lefties have put up runs on Carlos Rodon and Blake Snell this postseason. Accepted wisdom is still that left-handed pitching may be better against Toronto than right-handed arms. None of Toronto's pure righties have an OPS above .690, and only Logan Warmoth is hitting well as a switch hitter. Instead, it's Connor Scott's .974, Tellez' 1.189 OPS, and Warmoth's .950 OPS that have carried the team this postseason.
That offense will take on an Arizona team that has relied heavily on four arms this postseason—Marco Gonzalez, Brandon Finnegan, Chang-min Shim, and Silvino Bracho. Those four arms have combined to throw 45.1 innings, with a 1.99 ERA, a 3-1 record, and five saves. Nobody else has an ERA under 3.86 aside from Edubray Ramos, who hasn't allowed a run in 3.2 innings.
The rest of Arizona's rotation, outside of Gonzalez, is being held together with duct tape. Jake Odorizzi has allowed five runs in less than five innings in each of his two starts, while Aaron Blair allowed six runs in 9 innings in a pair of starts against the Phillies, and doesn't inspire much confidence. If Toronto has turned into a team of sluggers against righties, then it's hard to expect Blair and Odorizzi keeping them in check.
Frank Duncan has an ERA over 11 as a long man this postseason, while Ariel Jurado's had one bad appearance and three strong ones this postseason. Jurado doesn't allow many home runs, making him a stronger option to see time as Arizona's defense can reel in the fly balls he allows. Still, there's evidence that Toronto can jump out to big leads in any game Marco Gonzalez doesn't start.
If Arizona can navigate those potential pitfalls, the back end of their bullpen has been terrific. Ramos has a 3.07 career postseason ERA. Finnegan has a 0.61 career postseason ERA. Bracho has saved four games in his five outings this year. After handling Philadelphia's lefty-leaning lineup, Arizona shouldn't have a major issue with Toronto's lineup.
Diamondbacks Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
Toronto's pitching has been sensational this entire playoff run. They have a 3.42 ERA, and have arrived 11 runs in their past seven games, a number that includes six runs allowed in their last game. Outside of a start he had to make on short rest, T. J. Zeuch has been strong as a starter, with a 4.05 ERA this postseason. Thomas Szapucki, meanwhile, has made his presence known on the big stage, with a 4-0 record, and a 2.52 playoff ERA. Those two give Toronto a dynamic one-two at the top of their rotation.
Their three and four spots are more questionable. They went with Michael Kopech for a start in Game 2 of the ALCS and he delivered nine strikeouts and no runs in 4.2 innings. They also went with a bullpen game for another start, allowing seven hits and striking out 15 in their Game 4 win. If bullpen dominance and Kopech gems are going to be on the docket for the World Series, there won't be much Arizona's offense can do.
Toronto's bullpen has been exceptional during the postseason as well. Joe Biagini has six saves, allowing just a single run in 11.1 innings. Danny Barnes has worked to a 2.08 ERA with 11 strikeouts in 8.2 innings setting him up. Eduardo Paredes had a sparkling 1.42 ERA before he gave up four runs while exhausted in the final game of the ALCS, while Sam Dyson hasn't struck out a batter in 3 innings, but he hasn't given up a run either as Toronto's defense has backed him up.
This is what Arizona's offense will have to deal with. The top two hitters in their lineup, Greg Allen, and Ryan Johnson, have combined to go 16-92 for a .174 average, but the rest of their offense has produced. Yunior Severino has four home runs, three doubles, a triple, and a .692 slugging mark. Rookie Doorbell Gestoso has a .320 average in his first playoffs. Isan Diaz is batting an even .300 with three home runs. Brandon Drury is hitting .304. Arizona hasn't killed opponents with home runs, and the top of their oder is struggling, but everyone else is getting on base and putting pressure on defenses.
A huge element of Arizona's attack has been its speed. The Diamondbacks have stolen 11 bases in 14 attempts this postseason, running early, running often, and running successfully. The Blue Jays pitching has been outstanding, but they're 0-2 in throwing out baserunners in the playoffs, all in Game 5 of the ALCS. Reese McGuire did not have a good year throwing out baserunners this season, and outside of some mid-tier relievers, most of Toronto's pitchers were terrible at holding runners. Base-running may be the key to Arizona unlocking offense that Toronto has limited.
Arizona's offense could be juiced by the return of Garrett Stubbs after Plantar Fasciitis. Stubbs had a remarkable postseason moment in 2019. Playing for Houston in a tie game in the 12th inning of Game 7 of the ALDS, he threw out Nick Gordon trying to steal second base as the winning run. He later strained his calf but still scored the winning run from second base on a single in the bottom of the inning to help Houston advance. Stubbs is a postseason gamer.
Season Series
The teams did not play this year. Toronto won two of three back in 2018, but Arizona won three of four in 2021.
Significant Batter-Pitcher Matchups
Joey Rickard vs T.J. Zeuch: 2-11, 0 HR
Rowdy Tellez vs Jake Odorizzi: 5-14, 2 HR
Jonathan Villar vs Marco Gonzalez: 1-12, 0 HR
Jonathan Villar vs Brandon Finnegan: 1-11, 0 HR
Deciding Questions:
Which bullpen will do better in the series?
Can Arizona survive the Aaron Blair and Jake Odorizzi innings?
IS the way the Arizona heart of the order hit against the Phillies, the new normal for them?
Prediction: It will come down to pitching. The Diamondbacks will be throwing a top-line starter twice in the series with the Blue Jays capable of sending one out four times. Michael Kopech also has more upside than Blair and Odorizzi. With Toronto regaining its power, and defensive capable of shutting off the gaps, they'll keep Arizona from putting up crooked innings. Blue Jays in 5