2023 National League East Preview
Feb 1, 2020 4:35:48 GMT -5
Commissioner Erick, Ben_Dodgers, and 2 more like this
Post by sfdave on Feb 1, 2020 4:35:48 GMT -5
The powerhouse National League East once again proved it’s the strongest division in the Pinnacle Baseball Association. The Phillies’ Seth Beer landed the National League MVP award after a near-historic season (with Washington’s Bryce Harper the only other player within shouting distance), Washington’s young pitching phenom Peter Solomon finished a close second for the National League Cy Young Award, Philadelphia’s Darick Hall and Miami’s Takahiro Norimoto took the top two spots in the National League Rookie of the Year voting, and Atlanta’s Ken Giles nabbed the National League Reliever of the Year Award. Throw in four Gold Gloves, four Silver Slugger awards, and playoff appearances by the Phillies, Nationals, and Marlins, and it was another banner year for the National League East.
2023 promises more of the same. The Phillies and Nationals will be just as tough this year, while Miami and Atlanta will continue to build on the successes of last season which saw both teams increase their win totals by double digits from 2021. And while New York struggled through an injury-marred campaign last year, there’s enough talent on their roster to compete for a Wildcard berth if they can keep their key players healthy and on the field all season.
Philadelphia Phillies
2022: 104-58. First place in the National League East. Lost to Arizona 4-3 in the National League Championship Series.
Who They Were: If the Phillies were good in 2021 (and they were with a 92-70 record), they were amazing in 2022. And while they ended up just a skosh short of the World Series, losing in the playoffs for the second straight season to the Diamondbacks, Phillies GM Matt Grubs has every reason to celebrate his team’s 2022 achievements.
Philadelphia’s high-octane offense topped the PBA in hits, doubles, runs, walks, RBIs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS, wRC, wOBA, and BABIP and probably a dozen other categories I was too lazy to look up. Led by National League MVP Seth Beer and a slew of talented young stars like Mickey Moniak, Darick Hall, and Yordan Alvarez, the Phillies offense routinely dominated opponents.
Beer’s season was one for the records. With a .341 batting average, 44 HR’s, 137 RBI’s, a .458 OBP, and 9.9 WAR he was a near-unanimous choice for league MVP. He’s 26, an extremely hard worker with a great knowledge of the game, and looks poised to remain atop the offensive leader boards for years to come. No wonder he’s one of the league’s most popular players and a great role model for Phillies fans.
While Philadelphia’s pitching couldn’t compare to its hitting, it was a strong group that put up a 4.00 team FIP and walked a league low 409 batters. Led by 27-year old Franklyn Kilome, the Phillies had three starters that logged over 175 innings and added 2.4 rWAR or better. It wasn’t an elite group, but it got the job done.
Much like the rotation, the bullpen was solid if not spectacular. Elniery Garcia, Edgar Garcia, Dan Altavilla, and the ageless Ryan Buchter all had good seasons with sub-3.0 FIPs and rWARs of 2.3 or higher. Altavilla in particular was outstanding as the team’s closer, racking up 39 saves with a league-leading (and jaw-dropping) .975 save percentage.
Offseason Review: While the Phillies made a big splash last year adding Madison Bumgarner, Alltavilla, and starting shortstop Andres Gimenez, this offseason seemed to be focused on smoothing out a handful of rough spots rather than making major changes. They added promising young starter Joey Wentz from the Rays in exchange for centerfielder Andrew Toles. Toles’ bat and defense will be missed, but not his me-first attitude or locker room disruptions. The club also parted ways with catcher Travis D’Arnaud in favor of longstanding backup Kyle Higashioka, a glove-first receiver with some pop.
On the Farm: The Phillies farm system took a big leap forward in 2022, vaulting six spots from 10th to 4th in the PBA rankings. Multi-talented youngster Luis Morales finally made his debut on the top-100 prospect list, dominating rookie league ball and holding his own at Williamsport. Morales received a massive $9.1 million bonus in 2020, and it looks like a spectacular investment so far.
Philadelphia also added 3B Bobby Witt, Jr. over the offseason in a trade with division rival Atlanta. Witt is ranked as the third best prospect in the Phillies system and has a plethora of tools even though his numbers last season in the Florida State League weren’t particularly impressive. Most of the team’s higher ranked prospects like pitcher Jorge Polanco, shortstop Ignacio Tonche, and third baseman Mike Preston are years away from contributing, although a handful like pitcher Mason Englert, a former top-5 draft pick who had a dominating year at AA Reading, could debut as early as this season.
Best Case Scenario: A repeat of 2022. While it’s hard to imagine Philadelphia’s offense improving much on last season, especially with the loss of Toles and D’Arnaud, their lineup is still loaded with young stars and there’s every reason to believe they’ll continue to put up outrageous offensive numbers this year. Their pitching staff is arguably improved with Wentz joining the rotation, and their bullpen remains rock-solid. The rest of the teams in the National League East will have an uphill climb to dethrone the Phillies atop the division in 2023.
Worst Case Scenario: With Toles and D’Arnaud’ gone, the Phillies lost 6.0 WAR that hasn’t been fully replaced. With enough injuries to their aging rotation and some unexpected inconsistency from their young hitters, it’s possible they could stumble to a second-place finish in the division.
Key Questions: Altavilla was phenomenal as your closer last season, will you try to extend him given this is his walk year? Both Bumgarner and Conley were great in 2022, but they’re getting on in years. Any concerns about their age and do you feel you have enough rotation depth to handle an injury or deterioration in performance? You’ve put together a really impressive farm system, which Phillies’ prospect are you most excited about?
Washington Nationals
2022: 90-72. Second place in the National League East. Lost to Miami in the National League Wildcard Series.
Who They Were: By most objective measures, 2022 was a fantastic year for Washington. They had one of the National League’s best offenses, finishing in the top-3 in batting average, OPS, on-base percentage, wOBA, wRC, runs, walks, and home runs. Their pitching was also terrific, finishing at or near the top of the league in wins, quality starts, strikeouts, ERA, and FIP. But after winning the World Series in 2021, a second-place finish in the division and early exit from the playoffs just felt a little underwhelming.
The Nationals have a star-studded lineup including MVP runner-up Bryce Harper, future first-ballot Hall of Fame inductee Mike Trout, and 25-year old superstar outfielder Victor Robles. All three had fantastic seasons in 2022. But it just wasn’t enough to compete with Philadelphia, especially with disappointing performances from normally reliable veterans like Anthony Rendon and Matt Carpenter.
Right-hander Peter Solomon was simply amazing anchoring the Washington rotation. For the second straight year he led the majors in ERA and finished just behind the Dodger’s Corey Kluber for the National League Cy Young award. And while Solomon was clearly the top hurler on Washington’s staff, both Franklin Perez and Joe Ross were also outstanding, racking up 3.9 rWAR and 3.0 rWAR respectively.
Offseason Review: The Nats were active over the offseason adding solid veterans Kolten Wong, Pedro Baez, Tim Peterson, and Wil Myers via free agency. They also parted company with some notable names including Yu Darvish, Matt Carpenter, Trea Turner, Drew Pomeranz, and Raul Mondesi (who elected to test the free agent market after rejecting the team’s qualifying offer).
Perhaps the most important development of the offseason, though, was Mike Trout’s decision not to opt out of his current contract. This ensures the perennial All-Star and franchise cornerstone will remain a fixture at Nationals Park through the 2028 season, albeit at a steep price tag of nearly $70 million per year. “It was an easy decision,” remarked Trout, “I love being a National, we have the world’s greatest fans, and let’s face it, it’s $70 million. Per year. For six years. Somebody pinch me!”
On the Farm: The Nationals farm system took a big step backward in 2021, falling from 5th in the PBA league rankings to 23rd. The big drop is attributable in part to the promotion of former No. 1 overall prospect Eric Pena who joined the Nats rotation last season. While he had a bit of a rude welcome to the majors, posting a 5.03 ERA and nearly leading the league in walks, he’s expected to be an integral part of Washington’s pitching staff for many years to come.
Currently, Washington’s only top-100 prospect is former 1st round pick Bob Beasley at No. 59. Only 20, Beasley looks like a promising talent, although he has yet to translate his potential into on-field performance and is still several years away from helping the big-league club.
And while Beasley’s the most prominent prospect in the Nats system, he’s not alone. Shortstop Jose Sanchez, a 22-year old defensive marvel, fireballer Jon Klock, and Rule 5 draft pick Luis Arcendo who GM Jake Pennel stole away from the slumbering Giants who inexplicably left him unprotected, are just a few of the exciting young players we’ll likely see in a Nats uniform in the not-too-distant future.
Best Case Scenario: Washington’s pitching staff should be as good as anyone’s in 2022, especially if Pena learns from the lumps he took last year and develops into the superstar many experts predict. Combine that with solid seasons from Trout, Harper, and Robles, and a bounce-back year from third baseman Anthony Rendon, and a 100-win season isn’t out of the question.
Worst Case Scenario: The Nationals aren’t a particularly deep club and any major injury to one of their stars, be it Trout, Harper, Robles, or Solomon, could really take the wind out of their sails. Add in the possibility Pena regresses and new additions Myers and Wong fail to produce, and a 3rd place finish with a win total in the low 80’s is possible.
Key Questions: With 7.3 WAR last year, Trout isn’t showing any signs of slowing. But given he’ll be 32 this year, do you worry his production will start to decline over the next few years? Last year, Solomon led the league in ERA and had more wins and rWAR than Corey Kluber, but still finished second in the National League Cy Young voting. Was he robbed? The Nationals have been amazingly consistent finishing with a winning record for twelve straight years. Given how competitive the National League East is now, what can you do to maintain that level of consistency over the coming years?
Miami Marlins
2022: 88-74. Third place in the National League East. Lost to Philadelphia 4-0 in the National League Division Series.
Who They Were: Was there a more surprising team than the Miami Marlins last year? They upped their win total by 15 wins from 2021 with a vastly improved offense, a dominant pitching staff, and one of the league’s top defenses. It was absolutely spectacular and a ton of fun to watch.
After scoring only 706 runs in 2021, the Marlins offense exploded last year, finishing second in the National League in batting average and in the top half of the league in nearly every batting category. Not an easy feat when you play half your games in Marlins Park.
The Marlins have a talented core of solid hitters including shortstop Nick Gordon, third baseman Blake Tiberi, second baseman Willi Castro, and first baseman Wilmer Flores, all of whom had very good seasons in 2022. Gordon in particular broke out last year after several somewhat frustrating campaigns. He ended the season with a .326/.377/.472 batting line, adding 5.4 WAR and sporting a 132 OPS+.
In 2022, the Marlin’s staff went from respectable to outstanding. Miami posted a National League best 3.70 team ERA, with top-3 finishes in almost every pitching category including FIP, WAR, wins, strikeouts, hits allowed, home runs allowed, and strikeout percentage. Starters Daniel Norris, Archie Bradley, Trevor Clifton, and newcomer Takahiro Norimoto combined for 13.2 rWAR over nearly 700 innings. And Miami’s bullpen was equally strong and remarkably consistent, with relievers Brandon Mauer, Dario Alvarez, Trevor Gott, Drew Steckenrider, Nick Wittgren, Jacob Barnes, and closer Nick Burdi all with ERA+’s above 110.
Offseason Review: Miami made a big splash last year signing Takahiro Norimoto to a three-year deal. That move paid off in spades with Norimoto winning 16 games and posting 3.6 rWAR. New GM Paul Denyer hasn’t made any similar acquisitions this offseason, although he has quietly signed several solid relief pitchers to low-risk-minor league deals, and added an interesting 20-year old outfielder via the Rule 5 draft.
In contrast, Miami has parted ways with several important players over the offseason. 27-year old outfielder Jeren Kendall was shipped to the Dodgers for two prospects after posting 4.4 WAR in 2022. And a large portion of Miami’s successful bullpen was lost to free agency, including Gott, Wittgren, Maurer, and Steckenrider.
On the Farm: The Marlins have the PBA’s 10th ranked farm system highlighted by four top-100 prospects including 2021 1st round draft pick Luis Castillo, a great looking 19-year old with tons of potential, 22-year old starting pitcher Juan Ochoa, a 3rd round draft pick in 2020 with a big fastball, first baseman Kwi-Tae Yook, an international signing out of North Korea with a sweet power swing and a funny haircut, and pitcher Alfredo Flores, who was acquired in a trade with the Rangers and looks like a future closer.
Miami’s system has a good balance between hitters and pitchers, with an emphasis on premium positions like shortstop, centerfield, and catcher. And while most of the team’s top prospects are still several years away, there are a handful like third baseman Garrett Gonzales and closer Eric Groves, who could join the major league squad this season.
Best Case Scenario: The Marlins rotation should be very good again this year, but losing Kendall could sting and it’s unclear how their bullpen will perform with so many new faces. The best case is probably a repeat of last year with somewhere north of 85 wins and possibly a second-place finish in the division if Washington slips.
Worst Case Scenario: Several Marlins had career years in 2021 and there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to sustain that level of production. If Gordon, Tiberi, or Flores stumble, or if any injuries hit their rotation, Miami could take a step back and finish with a .500 record.
Key Questions: Jeren Kendall had a fantastic year in 2022 and is arguably the best defensive centerfielder in the PBA, what convinced you to trade him? The Marlins were fairly quiet this offseason, did you have budget constraints or were you just able to fill your existing holes with internal options? Trevor Clifton was solid in the rotation last year, but some scouts question whether he would be more effective in the bullpen given his stamina and lack of a quality third pitch. Where do you plan to use him this year?
Atlanta Braves
2022: 77-85. Fourth place in the National League East.
Who They Were: The Braves improved by 12 wins last year, which was a huge accomplishment in a division as tough as the National League East. Atlanta’s hitting woes continued in 2022, though. They finished dead last in the National League in several offensive categories including batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, WPA, wOBA, wRC, hits, and runs. In fact, the team only scored 622 runs last year, 330 less than division rival and league leader Philadelphia.
The Braves do have some talented bats. Austin Meadows hit .283/.343/.465 with 5.1 WAR and a 119 OPS+, which was enough to earn him a multi-year deal with the Braves over the offseason. And second baseman Christian Hicks chipped in with 2.6 WAR and a 115 OPS+. Unfortunately, there simply weren’t enough other pieces around Meadows and Hicks last season to consistently put runs on the board.
But while the hitting languished, Atlanta’s pitching was vastly improved over 2021. The Braves put up a 3.95 team ERA, and delivered 69 quality starts, good enough for 3rd place in the National League. Zach Davies, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Peter Lambert all had good years, with a combined 13.6 rWAR. Davies was particularly effective atop the rotation, with a 3.40 FIP and 15 quality starts.
While the rotation was solid, especially at the top, the bullpen was inconsistent. Closer Ken Giles was outstanding, and Luken Baker put up an enviable 2.80 ERA, although it wasn’t supported by his peripheral numbers and may be difficult to repeat in 2023. Despite those strong performances, though, the Atlanta bullpen blew 25 saves last year, fourth worst in the league, and struggled in tight games for much of the season.
Offseason Review: It was a busy offseason for General Manager Aaron Dunham and the Braves. They addressed several of their needs through a series of trades and free agent signings that brought in pitchers Adam Liberatore, Thomas Hacking, Tony Watson, Hunter Ruth, Cole Sands, Jose Ruiz, Trevor Rogers, Luke Weaver, Marc Eberle, and Grayson Rodriguez, along with catcher Rafael Marchan, outfielder Jordon Adell, and first baseman Nathaniel Lowe.
But Atlanta’s biggest offseason move was undoubtedly the signing of Japanese superstar Shohei Otani. Otani is a two-way player who has won almost every award possible in the Nippon Professional Baseball League. He brings some much-needed offense to the team, as well as an electric, although somewhat erratic, arm that should slot in at the top of Atlanta’s rotation for many years.
That’s a lot of new talent on the team, but it came at a price. The Braves shipped out Rodriguez, one of their best starters, along with top prospects Shane Baz, Bobby Witt, Jr., Amin Valdez, and Johan Oviedo.
On the Farm: Atlanta’s offseason trades took a toll on its farm system. It entered last year with the top-ranked minor league system in the PBA, but after moving both Baz and Witt, it’s now dropped to ninth in the league. It’s still brimming with good prospects, though, including recent acquisition Marc Eberle, a rare knuckleballer with great stuff and a good knowledge of the game, Luis Ramirez, a top-notch infielder with loads of power, former first-round draft pick Steve Goode, and starter Zach Wilkinson who’s coming off a dominant season in A-ball.
Best Case Scenario: The Braves never sit still. They’ve made several significant moves over the offseason to shore up their offense and bullpen. If these pay off as hoped, Atlanta could be this year’s Miami, putting together a winning season and an unexpected playoff appearance.
Worst Case Scenario: Atlanta’s offense is still a big question mark. They have talent, but it’s unclear whether it’s enough to keep pace with the other division powerhouses. Atlanta is clearly a team on the rise, but being truly competitive may still be a few seasons away. If the offense doesn’t improve and Otani fails to adjust successfully to the major leagues, a fourth-place finish and another sub .500 record is possible.
Key Questions: Otani could be a generational-type player and a huge contributor for years to come. How excited were you to land him and do you intend to use him as a two-way player? If so, at what spots? Other than Otani, what offseason acquisitions do you think will prove the most helpful this season? What about down the road? You dealt several good prospects this year to shore up some holes in your major league club. Was that part of your strategy entering the offseason or were they simply a result of opportunities that arose as the offseason unfolded?
New York Mets
2022: 66-96. Fifth place in the National League East.
Who They Were: 2022 was a tough season for the Mets. While they still have a star-studded lineup and a solid rotation headed by Noah Syndergaard, Matt Cleveland, and Matt Harvey, injuries and age seemed to have caught up with New York last year.
Syndergaard spent almost the entire season on the injury list with a worrisome array of right arm problems, while cornerstone players like Jacob deGrom, Chad Bettis, Drew Smyly, Michael Conforto, Nick Senzel, Zach Wheeler, and Jordan Humphreys all lost considerable playing time due to injuries.
Despite that, the Mets hitting was respectable in 2022. They finished in the top half of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, wOBA, hits, doubles, and WAR. And several position players like Dominic Smith, Orlando Arcia, Ahmed Rosario, and Ricardo Cespedes had terrific years.
The Met’s real challenge last season was pitching. With all the injuries to their rotation they were never able to establish a rhythm and ended the season at or near the bottom in most pitching categories including ERA, FIP, quality starts, and home runs allowed. Syndergaard is still one of the best pitchers in baseball when he’s healthy, but he suffered through four separate injuries to his right arm in 2022, which begs the question whether the Mets can count on him to be healthy going forward.
Offseason Review: New York lost several players to free agency this year, including deGrom, Arcia, Bettis, and Smyly. Beyond that, it was a quiet offseason for Mets GM Ryan James. The only two major additions were to their coaching staff, where former Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway was hired for the same role with New York, and former player and Ace of Base groupie Alex Cora was named as the Mets’ bench coach after spending the past two seasons with the Diamondbacks, who won the World Series last year . . . .
On the Farm: Last year the Mets farm system was ranked 27th in the PBA and it hasn’t budged from that spot this year. While New York currently lacks any top-100 prospects, they do have several promising young players including second baseman Luis Torribio, who may start the year in New York after a dynamite 2022 season with AAA Las Vegas, shortstop Ynmanol Marinez, a slick-fielding 21-year old with good power, and Tomaz Espassandim, a 17-year old second baseman with outstanding tools and a nearly unpronounceable last name.
While the Mets have a handful of very intriguing hitting prospects, the same can’t be said for their young pitching. While there’s no lack of pitching prospects in the system, few if any seem likely to contribute meaningfully at the major league level.
Best Case Scenario: If the Met’s can stay healthy, and that’s a big “if,” there’s enough talent on this club to compete for a Wildcard spot. Syndergaard, Cleveland, and Harvey are all top-flight starters, and even without Arcia, New York’s offense can do plenty of damage. If everything clicks, and everyone can stay on the field, there’s a chance the Mets could finish above .500 and be playing meaningful baseball this fall.
Worst Case Scenario: A repeat of 2022, where the Mets’ major assets shuffle on and off the injured list all season, exposing their lack of pitching depth and weak farm system. It’s hard to imagine the Mets losing 100 games or more given the talent on their major league roster, but talent only helps if it’s on the field.
Key Questions: How concerned are you about Syndergaards’s injury problems last season? Given his recent stamina decline would you consider using him in your bullpen to try to reduce the wear on his arm? Rosario, Smith, and Senzel are all wonderful young players, do you intend to build around them or are you considering trading them to restock your farm system? What do you consider the biggest holes in your lineup and how do you plan to address them over the next few years?
2023 promises more of the same. The Phillies and Nationals will be just as tough this year, while Miami and Atlanta will continue to build on the successes of last season which saw both teams increase their win totals by double digits from 2021. And while New York struggled through an injury-marred campaign last year, there’s enough talent on their roster to compete for a Wildcard berth if they can keep their key players healthy and on the field all season.
Philadelphia Phillies
2022: 104-58. First place in the National League East. Lost to Arizona 4-3 in the National League Championship Series.
Who They Were: If the Phillies were good in 2021 (and they were with a 92-70 record), they were amazing in 2022. And while they ended up just a skosh short of the World Series, losing in the playoffs for the second straight season to the Diamondbacks, Phillies GM Matt Grubs has every reason to celebrate his team’s 2022 achievements.
Philadelphia’s high-octane offense topped the PBA in hits, doubles, runs, walks, RBIs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS, wRC, wOBA, and BABIP and probably a dozen other categories I was too lazy to look up. Led by National League MVP Seth Beer and a slew of talented young stars like Mickey Moniak, Darick Hall, and Yordan Alvarez, the Phillies offense routinely dominated opponents.
Beer’s season was one for the records. With a .341 batting average, 44 HR’s, 137 RBI’s, a .458 OBP, and 9.9 WAR he was a near-unanimous choice for league MVP. He’s 26, an extremely hard worker with a great knowledge of the game, and looks poised to remain atop the offensive leader boards for years to come. No wonder he’s one of the league’s most popular players and a great role model for Phillies fans.
While Philadelphia’s pitching couldn’t compare to its hitting, it was a strong group that put up a 4.00 team FIP and walked a league low 409 batters. Led by 27-year old Franklyn Kilome, the Phillies had three starters that logged over 175 innings and added 2.4 rWAR or better. It wasn’t an elite group, but it got the job done.
Much like the rotation, the bullpen was solid if not spectacular. Elniery Garcia, Edgar Garcia, Dan Altavilla, and the ageless Ryan Buchter all had good seasons with sub-3.0 FIPs and rWARs of 2.3 or higher. Altavilla in particular was outstanding as the team’s closer, racking up 39 saves with a league-leading (and jaw-dropping) .975 save percentage.
Offseason Review: While the Phillies made a big splash last year adding Madison Bumgarner, Alltavilla, and starting shortstop Andres Gimenez, this offseason seemed to be focused on smoothing out a handful of rough spots rather than making major changes. They added promising young starter Joey Wentz from the Rays in exchange for centerfielder Andrew Toles. Toles’ bat and defense will be missed, but not his me-first attitude or locker room disruptions. The club also parted ways with catcher Travis D’Arnaud in favor of longstanding backup Kyle Higashioka, a glove-first receiver with some pop.
On the Farm: The Phillies farm system took a big leap forward in 2022, vaulting six spots from 10th to 4th in the PBA rankings. Multi-talented youngster Luis Morales finally made his debut on the top-100 prospect list, dominating rookie league ball and holding his own at Williamsport. Morales received a massive $9.1 million bonus in 2020, and it looks like a spectacular investment so far.
Philadelphia also added 3B Bobby Witt, Jr. over the offseason in a trade with division rival Atlanta. Witt is ranked as the third best prospect in the Phillies system and has a plethora of tools even though his numbers last season in the Florida State League weren’t particularly impressive. Most of the team’s higher ranked prospects like pitcher Jorge Polanco, shortstop Ignacio Tonche, and third baseman Mike Preston are years away from contributing, although a handful like pitcher Mason Englert, a former top-5 draft pick who had a dominating year at AA Reading, could debut as early as this season.
Best Case Scenario: A repeat of 2022. While it’s hard to imagine Philadelphia’s offense improving much on last season, especially with the loss of Toles and D’Arnaud, their lineup is still loaded with young stars and there’s every reason to believe they’ll continue to put up outrageous offensive numbers this year. Their pitching staff is arguably improved with Wentz joining the rotation, and their bullpen remains rock-solid. The rest of the teams in the National League East will have an uphill climb to dethrone the Phillies atop the division in 2023.
Worst Case Scenario: With Toles and D’Arnaud’ gone, the Phillies lost 6.0 WAR that hasn’t been fully replaced. With enough injuries to their aging rotation and some unexpected inconsistency from their young hitters, it’s possible they could stumble to a second-place finish in the division.
Key Questions: Altavilla was phenomenal as your closer last season, will you try to extend him given this is his walk year? Both Bumgarner and Conley were great in 2022, but they’re getting on in years. Any concerns about their age and do you feel you have enough rotation depth to handle an injury or deterioration in performance? You’ve put together a really impressive farm system, which Phillies’ prospect are you most excited about?
Washington Nationals
2022: 90-72. Second place in the National League East. Lost to Miami in the National League Wildcard Series.
Who They Were: By most objective measures, 2022 was a fantastic year for Washington. They had one of the National League’s best offenses, finishing in the top-3 in batting average, OPS, on-base percentage, wOBA, wRC, runs, walks, and home runs. Their pitching was also terrific, finishing at or near the top of the league in wins, quality starts, strikeouts, ERA, and FIP. But after winning the World Series in 2021, a second-place finish in the division and early exit from the playoffs just felt a little underwhelming.
The Nationals have a star-studded lineup including MVP runner-up Bryce Harper, future first-ballot Hall of Fame inductee Mike Trout, and 25-year old superstar outfielder Victor Robles. All three had fantastic seasons in 2022. But it just wasn’t enough to compete with Philadelphia, especially with disappointing performances from normally reliable veterans like Anthony Rendon and Matt Carpenter.
Right-hander Peter Solomon was simply amazing anchoring the Washington rotation. For the second straight year he led the majors in ERA and finished just behind the Dodger’s Corey Kluber for the National League Cy Young award. And while Solomon was clearly the top hurler on Washington’s staff, both Franklin Perez and Joe Ross were also outstanding, racking up 3.9 rWAR and 3.0 rWAR respectively.
Offseason Review: The Nats were active over the offseason adding solid veterans Kolten Wong, Pedro Baez, Tim Peterson, and Wil Myers via free agency. They also parted company with some notable names including Yu Darvish, Matt Carpenter, Trea Turner, Drew Pomeranz, and Raul Mondesi (who elected to test the free agent market after rejecting the team’s qualifying offer).
Perhaps the most important development of the offseason, though, was Mike Trout’s decision not to opt out of his current contract. This ensures the perennial All-Star and franchise cornerstone will remain a fixture at Nationals Park through the 2028 season, albeit at a steep price tag of nearly $70 million per year. “It was an easy decision,” remarked Trout, “I love being a National, we have the world’s greatest fans, and let’s face it, it’s $70 million. Per year. For six years. Somebody pinch me!”
On the Farm: The Nationals farm system took a big step backward in 2021, falling from 5th in the PBA league rankings to 23rd. The big drop is attributable in part to the promotion of former No. 1 overall prospect Eric Pena who joined the Nats rotation last season. While he had a bit of a rude welcome to the majors, posting a 5.03 ERA and nearly leading the league in walks, he’s expected to be an integral part of Washington’s pitching staff for many years to come.
Currently, Washington’s only top-100 prospect is former 1st round pick Bob Beasley at No. 59. Only 20, Beasley looks like a promising talent, although he has yet to translate his potential into on-field performance and is still several years away from helping the big-league club.
And while Beasley’s the most prominent prospect in the Nats system, he’s not alone. Shortstop Jose Sanchez, a 22-year old defensive marvel, fireballer Jon Klock, and Rule 5 draft pick Luis Arcendo who GM Jake Pennel stole away from the slumbering Giants who inexplicably left him unprotected, are just a few of the exciting young players we’ll likely see in a Nats uniform in the not-too-distant future.
Best Case Scenario: Washington’s pitching staff should be as good as anyone’s in 2022, especially if Pena learns from the lumps he took last year and develops into the superstar many experts predict. Combine that with solid seasons from Trout, Harper, and Robles, and a bounce-back year from third baseman Anthony Rendon, and a 100-win season isn’t out of the question.
Worst Case Scenario: The Nationals aren’t a particularly deep club and any major injury to one of their stars, be it Trout, Harper, Robles, or Solomon, could really take the wind out of their sails. Add in the possibility Pena regresses and new additions Myers and Wong fail to produce, and a 3rd place finish with a win total in the low 80’s is possible.
Key Questions: With 7.3 WAR last year, Trout isn’t showing any signs of slowing. But given he’ll be 32 this year, do you worry his production will start to decline over the next few years? Last year, Solomon led the league in ERA and had more wins and rWAR than Corey Kluber, but still finished second in the National League Cy Young voting. Was he robbed? The Nationals have been amazingly consistent finishing with a winning record for twelve straight years. Given how competitive the National League East is now, what can you do to maintain that level of consistency over the coming years?
Miami Marlins
2022: 88-74. Third place in the National League East. Lost to Philadelphia 4-0 in the National League Division Series.
Who They Were: Was there a more surprising team than the Miami Marlins last year? They upped their win total by 15 wins from 2021 with a vastly improved offense, a dominant pitching staff, and one of the league’s top defenses. It was absolutely spectacular and a ton of fun to watch.
After scoring only 706 runs in 2021, the Marlins offense exploded last year, finishing second in the National League in batting average and in the top half of the league in nearly every batting category. Not an easy feat when you play half your games in Marlins Park.
The Marlins have a talented core of solid hitters including shortstop Nick Gordon, third baseman Blake Tiberi, second baseman Willi Castro, and first baseman Wilmer Flores, all of whom had very good seasons in 2022. Gordon in particular broke out last year after several somewhat frustrating campaigns. He ended the season with a .326/.377/.472 batting line, adding 5.4 WAR and sporting a 132 OPS+.
In 2022, the Marlin’s staff went from respectable to outstanding. Miami posted a National League best 3.70 team ERA, with top-3 finishes in almost every pitching category including FIP, WAR, wins, strikeouts, hits allowed, home runs allowed, and strikeout percentage. Starters Daniel Norris, Archie Bradley, Trevor Clifton, and newcomer Takahiro Norimoto combined for 13.2 rWAR over nearly 700 innings. And Miami’s bullpen was equally strong and remarkably consistent, with relievers Brandon Mauer, Dario Alvarez, Trevor Gott, Drew Steckenrider, Nick Wittgren, Jacob Barnes, and closer Nick Burdi all with ERA+’s above 110.
Offseason Review: Miami made a big splash last year signing Takahiro Norimoto to a three-year deal. That move paid off in spades with Norimoto winning 16 games and posting 3.6 rWAR. New GM Paul Denyer hasn’t made any similar acquisitions this offseason, although he has quietly signed several solid relief pitchers to low-risk-minor league deals, and added an interesting 20-year old outfielder via the Rule 5 draft.
In contrast, Miami has parted ways with several important players over the offseason. 27-year old outfielder Jeren Kendall was shipped to the Dodgers for two prospects after posting 4.4 WAR in 2022. And a large portion of Miami’s successful bullpen was lost to free agency, including Gott, Wittgren, Maurer, and Steckenrider.
On the Farm: The Marlins have the PBA’s 10th ranked farm system highlighted by four top-100 prospects including 2021 1st round draft pick Luis Castillo, a great looking 19-year old with tons of potential, 22-year old starting pitcher Juan Ochoa, a 3rd round draft pick in 2020 with a big fastball, first baseman Kwi-Tae Yook, an international signing out of North Korea with a sweet power swing and a funny haircut, and pitcher Alfredo Flores, who was acquired in a trade with the Rangers and looks like a future closer.
Miami’s system has a good balance between hitters and pitchers, with an emphasis on premium positions like shortstop, centerfield, and catcher. And while most of the team’s top prospects are still several years away, there are a handful like third baseman Garrett Gonzales and closer Eric Groves, who could join the major league squad this season.
Best Case Scenario: The Marlins rotation should be very good again this year, but losing Kendall could sting and it’s unclear how their bullpen will perform with so many new faces. The best case is probably a repeat of last year with somewhere north of 85 wins and possibly a second-place finish in the division if Washington slips.
Worst Case Scenario: Several Marlins had career years in 2021 and there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to sustain that level of production. If Gordon, Tiberi, or Flores stumble, or if any injuries hit their rotation, Miami could take a step back and finish with a .500 record.
Key Questions: Jeren Kendall had a fantastic year in 2022 and is arguably the best defensive centerfielder in the PBA, what convinced you to trade him? The Marlins were fairly quiet this offseason, did you have budget constraints or were you just able to fill your existing holes with internal options? Trevor Clifton was solid in the rotation last year, but some scouts question whether he would be more effective in the bullpen given his stamina and lack of a quality third pitch. Where do you plan to use him this year?
Atlanta Braves
2022: 77-85. Fourth place in the National League East.
Who They Were: The Braves improved by 12 wins last year, which was a huge accomplishment in a division as tough as the National League East. Atlanta’s hitting woes continued in 2022, though. They finished dead last in the National League in several offensive categories including batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, WPA, wOBA, wRC, hits, and runs. In fact, the team only scored 622 runs last year, 330 less than division rival and league leader Philadelphia.
The Braves do have some talented bats. Austin Meadows hit .283/.343/.465 with 5.1 WAR and a 119 OPS+, which was enough to earn him a multi-year deal with the Braves over the offseason. And second baseman Christian Hicks chipped in with 2.6 WAR and a 115 OPS+. Unfortunately, there simply weren’t enough other pieces around Meadows and Hicks last season to consistently put runs on the board.
But while the hitting languished, Atlanta’s pitching was vastly improved over 2021. The Braves put up a 3.95 team ERA, and delivered 69 quality starts, good enough for 3rd place in the National League. Zach Davies, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Peter Lambert all had good years, with a combined 13.6 rWAR. Davies was particularly effective atop the rotation, with a 3.40 FIP and 15 quality starts.
While the rotation was solid, especially at the top, the bullpen was inconsistent. Closer Ken Giles was outstanding, and Luken Baker put up an enviable 2.80 ERA, although it wasn’t supported by his peripheral numbers and may be difficult to repeat in 2023. Despite those strong performances, though, the Atlanta bullpen blew 25 saves last year, fourth worst in the league, and struggled in tight games for much of the season.
Offseason Review: It was a busy offseason for General Manager Aaron Dunham and the Braves. They addressed several of their needs through a series of trades and free agent signings that brought in pitchers Adam Liberatore, Thomas Hacking, Tony Watson, Hunter Ruth, Cole Sands, Jose Ruiz, Trevor Rogers, Luke Weaver, Marc Eberle, and Grayson Rodriguez, along with catcher Rafael Marchan, outfielder Jordon Adell, and first baseman Nathaniel Lowe.
But Atlanta’s biggest offseason move was undoubtedly the signing of Japanese superstar Shohei Otani. Otani is a two-way player who has won almost every award possible in the Nippon Professional Baseball League. He brings some much-needed offense to the team, as well as an electric, although somewhat erratic, arm that should slot in at the top of Atlanta’s rotation for many years.
That’s a lot of new talent on the team, but it came at a price. The Braves shipped out Rodriguez, one of their best starters, along with top prospects Shane Baz, Bobby Witt, Jr., Amin Valdez, and Johan Oviedo.
On the Farm: Atlanta’s offseason trades took a toll on its farm system. It entered last year with the top-ranked minor league system in the PBA, but after moving both Baz and Witt, it’s now dropped to ninth in the league. It’s still brimming with good prospects, though, including recent acquisition Marc Eberle, a rare knuckleballer with great stuff and a good knowledge of the game, Luis Ramirez, a top-notch infielder with loads of power, former first-round draft pick Steve Goode, and starter Zach Wilkinson who’s coming off a dominant season in A-ball.
Best Case Scenario: The Braves never sit still. They’ve made several significant moves over the offseason to shore up their offense and bullpen. If these pay off as hoped, Atlanta could be this year’s Miami, putting together a winning season and an unexpected playoff appearance.
Worst Case Scenario: Atlanta’s offense is still a big question mark. They have talent, but it’s unclear whether it’s enough to keep pace with the other division powerhouses. Atlanta is clearly a team on the rise, but being truly competitive may still be a few seasons away. If the offense doesn’t improve and Otani fails to adjust successfully to the major leagues, a fourth-place finish and another sub .500 record is possible.
Key Questions: Otani could be a generational-type player and a huge contributor for years to come. How excited were you to land him and do you intend to use him as a two-way player? If so, at what spots? Other than Otani, what offseason acquisitions do you think will prove the most helpful this season? What about down the road? You dealt several good prospects this year to shore up some holes in your major league club. Was that part of your strategy entering the offseason or were they simply a result of opportunities that arose as the offseason unfolded?
New York Mets
2022: 66-96. Fifth place in the National League East.
Who They Were: 2022 was a tough season for the Mets. While they still have a star-studded lineup and a solid rotation headed by Noah Syndergaard, Matt Cleveland, and Matt Harvey, injuries and age seemed to have caught up with New York last year.
Syndergaard spent almost the entire season on the injury list with a worrisome array of right arm problems, while cornerstone players like Jacob deGrom, Chad Bettis, Drew Smyly, Michael Conforto, Nick Senzel, Zach Wheeler, and Jordan Humphreys all lost considerable playing time due to injuries.
Despite that, the Mets hitting was respectable in 2022. They finished in the top half of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, wOBA, hits, doubles, and WAR. And several position players like Dominic Smith, Orlando Arcia, Ahmed Rosario, and Ricardo Cespedes had terrific years.
The Met’s real challenge last season was pitching. With all the injuries to their rotation they were never able to establish a rhythm and ended the season at or near the bottom in most pitching categories including ERA, FIP, quality starts, and home runs allowed. Syndergaard is still one of the best pitchers in baseball when he’s healthy, but he suffered through four separate injuries to his right arm in 2022, which begs the question whether the Mets can count on him to be healthy going forward.
Offseason Review: New York lost several players to free agency this year, including deGrom, Arcia, Bettis, and Smyly. Beyond that, it was a quiet offseason for Mets GM Ryan James. The only two major additions were to their coaching staff, where former Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway was hired for the same role with New York, and former player and Ace of Base groupie Alex Cora was named as the Mets’ bench coach after spending the past two seasons with the Diamondbacks, who won the World Series last year . . . .
On the Farm: Last year the Mets farm system was ranked 27th in the PBA and it hasn’t budged from that spot this year. While New York currently lacks any top-100 prospects, they do have several promising young players including second baseman Luis Torribio, who may start the year in New York after a dynamite 2022 season with AAA Las Vegas, shortstop Ynmanol Marinez, a slick-fielding 21-year old with good power, and Tomaz Espassandim, a 17-year old second baseman with outstanding tools and a nearly unpronounceable last name.
While the Mets have a handful of very intriguing hitting prospects, the same can’t be said for their young pitching. While there’s no lack of pitching prospects in the system, few if any seem likely to contribute meaningfully at the major league level.
Best Case Scenario: If the Met’s can stay healthy, and that’s a big “if,” there’s enough talent on this club to compete for a Wildcard spot. Syndergaard, Cleveland, and Harvey are all top-flight starters, and even without Arcia, New York’s offense can do plenty of damage. If everything clicks, and everyone can stay on the field, there’s a chance the Mets could finish above .500 and be playing meaningful baseball this fall.
Worst Case Scenario: A repeat of 2022, where the Mets’ major assets shuffle on and off the injured list all season, exposing their lack of pitching depth and weak farm system. It’s hard to imagine the Mets losing 100 games or more given the talent on their major league roster, but talent only helps if it’s on the field.
Key Questions: How concerned are you about Syndergaards’s injury problems last season? Given his recent stamina decline would you consider using him in your bullpen to try to reduce the wear on his arm? Rosario, Smith, and Senzel are all wonderful young players, do you intend to build around them or are you considering trading them to restock your farm system? What do you consider the biggest holes in your lineup and how do you plan to address them over the next few years?
