Post by Commissioner Erick on May 17, 2020 23:24:27 GMT -5
Chicago White Sox (93-70) @ New York Yankees (94-68)
Despite 93 wins, it's been a far more difficult season than the Chicago White Sox imagined they'd have. The club was .500 until mid-May and needed a late season surge to earn a win-or-go-home playoff against the Kansas City Royals just to make the playoffs. The team endured key depth pieces struggling or getting hurt, and never reached the heights of previous Chicago clubs. Their reward for enduring this season: An AL Wild Card appearance and a date with the New York Yankees.
The White lost their only Wild Card Game appearance in dramatic fashion back in 2020. The club has faced the Yankees twice in the postseason, losing twice in dramatic fashion. Chicago will have to put both those demons to bed to advance to the ALCS.
New York, meanwhile, is no stranger to this position. They lost in the Wild Card game back in 2017 and 2018, but won in 2021. Also, the two seasons the Yankees faced Chicago in the playoffs, in 2019 and 2021, they earned trips to the World Series. New York has history on its side, and it's hoping history repeats.
Yankees Offense versus White Sox Pitching
Chicago will roll out Carlos Martinez, one of the best pitchers in PBA history, to punch its ticket to the ALDS. Despite losing double digit games for the first time as a White Sox pitcher, and despite nearly a 0.5 increase in ERA over last year, Martinez produced the most WAR of his career outside of his legendary 2018 year. He led the AL in fewest home runs-per-nine innings with another magical season of keeping the ball dancing and preventing it from being hit hard. The strikeout numbers are a little bit down from his phenomenal past, but he still has exceptional walk and ground ball numbers.
Martinez' postseason numbers are exceptional overall, but he's struggled somewhat against the Yankees. In 2019 he allowed four home runs in 14.1 innings, leading to a 3.77 ERA. He was better in 2021, but still allowed two home runs in 12.1 innings, and worked to a 3.65 ERA. His overall playoff ERA is 3.13, so those games against the Yankees stand out. Still, he has the most playoff wins all-time and is a solid 14th on the postseason ERA leader board.
He'll face a Yankees team that loved the true outcomes. New York hit the third most home runs this year, walked the most in the league, and struck out the second most times. Their batting average wasn't good and they don't steal bases, making three-run home runs important. They scored three runs in 6.1 innings against Martinez in early August with a home run hit, but they didn't walk and struck out 8 times.
The team is deep with power hitters with likely seven regulars popping 23 home runs or more, led by Gary Sanchez' 39 bombs from the catcher spot. The Yankees best hitters in terms of batting average were left-handed in Dustin Fowler and Jarred Kelenic, meaning the team did better against righties than lefties. In fact, Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge had weird platoon splits that saw them perform better against righties than lefties.
It's unlikely to imagine the Yankees drawing a ton of walks against Martinez as history has shown they're more likely to connect on a home run. The key to the game may be Kelenic and Fowler and whether they can string a few hits together for Esteban Robles, who has two home runs lifetime against Martinez in 11 at bats.
There's also a mystery has to who will play Center Field or Second Base for the Yankees. Manuel Margot's injury forces the team to either put Aaron Judge into the outfield and move a substandard fielder to Center, or to try to get an inadequate hitter into the lineup. Considering New York doesn't really have any great defensive options even among the more competent fielders, they may just put Kelenic in Center and hope for the best. At Second, Hyo-Jun Park has a little bit of speed, but he has a .299 slugging percentage and doesn’t have a great on-base percentage to compensate. Jorge Polanco hasn't had a good year, but he has more of a track record.
Chicago's bullpen is top-notch. The club fielded the fourth best bullpen ERA in the AL and went 6 shutout in the AL Wild Card Play-In Game to vanquish the Kansas City Royals. Should Martinez get into trouble, Adalberto Mejia has an exceptional walk rate, which fueled an 8-inning, one-run outing against the Yankees in August, He didn't walk anybody and only having four strikeouts didn't matter. Raymelis Rosa had a 0.75 WHIP fueled by a lack of walks and a sparkling BABIP, and should be the primary arm in the middle innings.
Blaine Knight allowed a few walks and a few home runs, so he's less of a sure thing in the middle innings. He did strike out 27% of hitters, which will play against the Yankees, but it would be riskier. Dan Jennings allowed an .897 OPS to righties, and a .458 OPS to lefties this year. His big-game credentials have been validated over-and-over again, but he'll need to be used against Bird, Kelenic, and Fowler.
In the eighth, Alex Faedo has been a better version of Blaine Knight. His home run numbers are a little elevated, but not alarmingly so. His walk rates are average. He has excellent strikeout numbers, fanning 31% of hitters. He has no real platoon splits. It's not the most inspiring package facing the Yankees, but with their penchant for swinging-and-missing, he can strike out the side in an eighth inning.
Jimmy Sherfy has had the best season of his career. He never had a home run rate below 2.6% before this year, but with only two big flies allowed, this year's mark dropped to 1.0%. His strikeout rate is the best of his career, and his walk rate is the second best. His 41 saves came in only 43 attempts and were second in the league. He's essentially a sure thing.
On the rare occasions the Yankees make contact and keep the ball in play, the White Sox defense is fourth worst in Zone Rating. Ian Happ had never really played First Base in his career and there were some growing pains that may be sorted out by now. However, center field is a sore spot. Tim Anderson is not a good defender but is tasked with patrolling the most important position in the outfield. It's possible some Yankees fly balls turn into doubles on his watch.
White Sox Offense versus Yankees Pitching
While the team-level splits are not nearly as pronounced as years past, nearly all the best hitters on Chicago hit better against righties than lefties. The team level sees Chicago produce a 48 point difference against righties than against lefties, which isn't something Chicago can compensate for too well.
A piece of good news for them is that Andrew Benintendi says he now feels unencumbered by the bad wrist that plagued his September. He's coming off a season where he hit under .300 for the first time since his rookie year back in 2017. He still led the league in OBP for the second time in three seasons, and produced 7.3 WAR after moving to Left Field this year. He bats in front of Rafael Devers, a player who led the league last year in OPS and WAR and improved in those numbers this year. Devers is tied for 20th All-Time in Home Runs and 13th All-Time in Doubles, a feat made more impressive when noting all but three other players in the doubles list, and all but one of the home run leaders, had an extra year in 2017 when Devers was in the minors.
Will Benson came into his own this year as a premium slugger with 38 home runs in his fourth year in the majors. Switch-hitter Ian Happ hit 18 of his 27 home runs from the left side himself, while Cal Raleigh hit 19 home runs with a .259 average against righties and five homers with a .197 mark against lefties.
The White Sox will beat up any unexceptional right-handed arm, making the Yankees choice of pitcher extremely interesting. Jesse Biddle would likely be the option based on handedness, but he was in Triple-A a year ago and would be on short rest. Greg Masceri has hinted that as a result, Luis Severino could get the start. Severino though, has strikeout numbers abandon him this year, dropping from 23.8% last year to 17.6% this year. He also allowed 20 home runs in 101 innings this year, including 14 homers with a .336 average to lefties despite a potent changeup. Severino has also never won a postseason start, going 0-7 in 11 outings.
Still, the Yankees have won with unorthodox pitching against the White Sox before. Who can forget Freicer Perez making his first major league start in Game 7 of the 2021 ALDS and not allowing an earned run to eliminate Chicago?
New York's handedness issues extend to its bullpen. Aroldis Chapman is the only lefty in the pen, and with a 2.16 ERA and a career 48% strikeout rate against lefties, he's likely putting Chicago on an 8-inning clock. All the rest of New York's arms are right-handed though. Granted, they're good right-handers, but it's still something to watch out for.
Tyrell Jenkins will dance away from the middle of the plate, and while he walks a bunch of hitters, he limits home runs and keeps his ERA manageable. It's not a terrible approach as a long man, but he has significant career platoon splits that could doom him against Chicago. Nick Rumbelow put an awful 2022 behind him—where his awful start to the season was a huge part in New York's missing the playoffs—with a career best 2.97 ERA this year. He actually doesn't have pronounced platoon splits, but has yielded a boatload of home runs in the past, which is dangerous against a Chicago team that was second in the league in home runs allowed.
Freicer Perez has worked hard to cut his home run numbers down, and his stuff plays up in the bullpen. He has no platoon split whatsoever, and has history of dominating Chicago's bats in the postseason. He should have a key role in the game. Finally, Giovanny Gallegos has been one of the game's best setup men since 2020 and dominates righties and lefties alike. Gallegos has allowed only five home runs the past two years as a bridge to Chapman. That being said, he had a rough go of it in the 2021 playoffs, his only postseason experience.
In fact, among key pitchers, only Perez and Chapman have had significant playoff success for the Yankees. Pitchers like Masahiro Tanaka, Jesse Hahn, Dellin Betances, and Jonathan Holder that did a lot of heavy lifting in the past aren't around to help.
Defensively, New York is pitiful, mostly as a result of the Center Field deficiency. In 65 games, Kelenic had a -11.1 Zone Rating as a Center Fielder. Anything hit in front of him will be a hit and anything hit to the side of him will be a double. New York also has to recognize that Gleyber Torres' days as a successful defender are over, as his range has abandoned him. Yeison Corredera isn't a good defender either, so Chicago's righties could find some success by merely rolling over off speed pitches and daring Torres and Corredera to move more than a few feet.
Should Chicago need to go to its bench, it mostly has defensive replacements and speedy pinch runner types. Sidney Pimental should never swing a bat, but he can pick it at any middle infield spot, and can steal a base, though inefficiently. Jonathan Rodriguez is another inefficient base-stealer who can't hit a lick, but he's an excellent outfield defender. Micah Watson has some pop, but hasn't figured out big league pitching yet. Brett Austin's days as an impact Catcher are over, but he's a competent offensive backup should Raleigh get hurt, and his poor defense won't matter against the Yankees.
While the Yankees pitchers haven't had great postseason success, Chicago's postseason offensive record also has been spotty the past few seasons. Devers had a .649 OPS against Toronto in last year's ALDS, while Benson had a .514 mark. Cal Raleigh hit .211 without an RBI. Many members of the media blamed Dansby Swanson for Chicago's lack of success as he had a career .572 OPS in the playoffs, and he's not on the team anymore. The Wild Card Game will be a huge opportunity for Chicago to put some bad playoff performances behind them.
Season Series
The two clubs split the season series 3-3, each winning a series at home in August. Cal Raleigh hit a seventh inning Grand Slam and Chicago also scored four in the eighth to turn a 5-4 deficit during the seventh-inning stretch into a 12-7 win. The offenses calmed down the next day, but 8 innings of one-run ball from Adalberto Mejia gave the White Sox a 2-1 series win and the series. New York avoided a sweep with their bullpen contributing 4.2 innings of one-run ball in a 5-4 win.
In New York, Chicago took the opening game of a three-game set when Will Benson took Aaron Sanchez deep with a Grand Slam, lifting Chicago t a 6-2 win. The Yankees blasted Andrew Suarez for 7 runs in 2.1 innings the next day to even the series. In the finale, a Will Benson error led to New York's only two runs. Jesse Biddle worked 7.1 scoreless, Gallegos and Chapman took it from there, and the Yankees won a 2-0 shutout.
Playoff History
The White Sox and Yankees have playoff history with the two clubs meeting in 2019 and 2021. In 2019, the Yankees hit 19 home runs in a six-game series, with three apiece from Ji-Man Choi, Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez. Masahiro Tanaka worked 15.1 scoreless innings, and the Yankees won 4-2.
In 2021, a Carlos Martinez gem and the fourth home run of the series from Andrew Benintendi put the White Sox up 3-2 after Game 5. Down a run in the seventh inning of Game 6, the Yankees responded with Dustin Fowler stealing second base and scoring on a Yeison Corredera hit to tie the game. A Rafael Devers error and Jorge Polanco-two run hit in the eighth gave the Yankees a 4-2 win to force Game 7. Joe Musgrove was hit hard, Freicer Perez worked 6.1 scoreless innings in his first major league start, and Alfredo Despaigne struck out as the winning run off Aroldis Chapman, giving the Yankees a 4-2 win and the series.
Deciding Questions
Who will play better Center Field defense, the Yankees or Tim Anderson? In close contests, defensive miscues could be what swings the game?
Both teams have good bullpens. Which one will come up big?
Will the Yankees get hits with runners in scoring position? Chicago will likely score some runs and Carlos Martinez isn't going to beat himself. The Yankees may not get many chances and they'll need to come through.
Prediction: Luis Severino isn't good and Chicago is able to get some doubles to land in the gaps and some home runs to land over the fence. New York gets a couple of home runs off Martinez, but not enough to make it close. White Sox 7-3.