Post by Commissioner Erick on May 19, 2020 17:41:56 GMT -5
New York Yankees (94-68) @ Toronto Blue Jays (98-64)
A year after making it to the World Series, the Toronto Blue Jays return to the postseason in 2023 even stronger. Several key youngsters have taken the proverbial next step to superstar status, and Thomas Szapucki has emerged as a legitimate ace.
The Blue Jays will take on a New York Yankees club that has made it to the World Series each year they've played in an ALDS. The Yankees got a magical comeback in the Wild Card Game that propelled them into the ALDS. With a deep lineup and exceptional bullpen, New York will look to overcome a questionable pitching staff and return to the World Series.
Yankees Offense versus Blue Jays Pitching
New York's formula by now is well known. The team is exceptionally patient and exceptionally powerful, eschewing the opponent's defense to slug three-run home runs. After being down 5-1 heading into the seventh inning of the Wild Card game, New York erupted for seven runs and two homers in two innings to win 8-6. Manuel Margot's injury allowed Aaron Judge to return to the lineup, giving the Yankees even more firepower.
The team is fairly stationary on the bases, though will try the occasional steal attempt. Reese McGuire may put a stop to that, making the Yankees even more reliant on power.
New York had pretty high platoon splits, with the league's third highest on-base percentage, slugging percentage, isolated slugging percentage, and OPS. They had the league's highest walk rate against righties too. Against lefties, the walk rate stays, but everything else drops to the middle of the pack.
That means, it might be wise for Toronto rely on its two lefties. Thomas Szapucki will start Game 1 and will likely get three cracks at New York if necessary, and Drew Pomeranz should be available out of the pen. Szapucki was a darling during last year's playoff run, going 5-0 in six starts with a 2.68 ERA to emerge on the scene as a top-flight arm. He followed that up with a stellar regular season cementing his status as one of the game's premier pitchers, with 18 wins and a 2.61 ERA, both figures leading the AL. Szapucki gets decent deception in his delivery and has a good changeup and huge curveball to eliminate platoon splits and dominate righties and lefties alike.
Drew Pomeranz has a similar pitching package, though age has worn his stuff down. His curve and change were used to generate huge reverse platoon splits this year, though in previous years his splits were more traditional. The sheer number of home runs to lefties this season makes him more riskier than a more conventional lefty reliever.
Toronto's starting rotation around Szapucki will feature T.J. Zeuch and Michael Kopech. Zeuch took a step back this season as more of his pitches were elevated and turned around for home runs. He faced the Yankees three times this year, not going more than 5 innings in any of them, and giving up at least four runs in two. Michael Kopech meanwhile deserves a ton of praise for working on the consistency of his delivery. His walk rate is now less than half of what it was two seasons ago, and he still maintained a pretty strong 23% strikeout rate. He's a more consistent arm, though he seldom pitches deep into games. Interestingly, with a devastating fastball-curveball approach and a good changeup, he also has a big platoon split.
Toronto's pen is hurt by this being the second straight season Roberto Osuna is banged up, as he's dealing with a strained tricep. After missing last postseason, he's going to try to gut this out. Despite a fly ball heavy approach, Osuna's stuff has been able to miss the meat of bats, allowing him to post dominant results without a dominant strikeout rate.
The rest of Toronto's pen is right-handed and workman like. Joe Biagini continues to be one of the game's best setup men and has a 1.57 career playoff ERA. Danny Barnes is likewise coming off a strong postseason, though he had a rough final month to the year. Eduardo Parades led the league in games and was clearly overworked this year, yet still posted a 3.88 ERA. Those three represent the key figures from last year's pen who have returned.
They're joined by rookie Billy McKay, another piece acquired by the club in the Josh Donaldson trade. McKay only struck out 29 in 34 innings, but he issued only two home runs, making him very reliable late in games. Shota Nakazaki was imported from Japan, and while he's a bit homer prone, his extreme control prevents free passes, which will be key against New York.
There are very few pitchers who are extremely prone to home runs on Toronto and very few extremely wild pitchers, so the matchup against their offense should be fair. Toronto has the best defense in the American League by far, with a dominant zone rating and a tremendous ability to control the running game. Jahmai Jones will be a Gold Glove candidate and Luis Alexander Basabe is an impact defender in left when he starts.
Blue Jays Offense versus Yankees Pitching
Toronto's offense was similar to last year's profile, but a little more balanced and more potent. Last year's club had the most walks and fewest strikeouts in the AL. This year's club finished second and third in those results. Toronto was last in baseball in doubles last year. This year, they finished 10th. They jumped from 10th to eighth in home runs. They jumped from fifth in steals to third. They jumped from fourth in runs scored to second. Little improvements that make them a little more potent.
This year's version has a pair of true superstars. After a couple of disappointing seasons, Jake Burger recaptured the trajectory he was on in 2020 and turned in a spectacular season with 48 home runs and a league-leading 138 RBIs. He's joined in the middle of the order by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. whose extreme uppercut resulted in a second-straight season with 40-plus homers and 100-plus RBIs, only this year's results came in fewer games and with only 10 doubles (!!!). Guerrero also increased his average to .297 and earned his first All-Star Game nod.
The rest of the regulars operate primarily by controlling the plate with walk rates ranging from 8.3% to 15.4%, and strikeout rates topping out at 20.2%. Wild pitchers with big stuff simply won’t fare well against Toronto's offense. Only one other hitter had more than 19 home runs, and that was sensational all-around stud Jahmai Jones, who clubbed 24 home runs and led the league with 12 triples. The other hitters will walk some, hit some doubles, put pressure on defenses, and get on base for the sluggers.
The one thing to note is Guerrero, Burger, and Jones are all right-handed. Team-level results didn't bear this out with all the lineup configurations and injuries Toronto dealt with, but it's conceivable that Toronto's offense struggles to hit homers off right-handed pitching. That may not matter so much against a poor defense like New York's, but could matter down the road.
Furthermore, Taylor Walls and Logan Warmoth deserve praise atop Toronto's lineup. Despite neither having special talent, the duo has an exceptional batting eye and intelligence, which allows them to work up pitch counts and draw walks ahead of the meat of the order.
New York's starting staff is pretty underwhelming. With only two plus-pitches, Jorge Guzman isn't optimized as a starting option. He had a 3.18 ERA across 17 innings in four starts, but walked 10 batters. He had 2.4 WAR as a long man with nearly double the strikeouts-per-nine, skills that may be wasted if asked to start. Austin DeCarr has had an ERA of 5.97 and 5.20 the past two seasons, with elevated home run counts and WHIPSs. Luis Severino has a 6.71 postseason ERA in his career.
Amazingly enough, only Jesse Biddle looks like a quality option. He went 16-6 with a 3.11 ERA a year after languishing in Milwaukee's minors. Biddle doesn't strike out anybody as his 16% strike out rate was third lowest among AL pitchers, but that doesn't matter as much against a Toronto offense that doesn't strike out. Biddle kept the ball in the park and had a low BABIP and will need to rely on his defense.
Unfortunately, New York's defense is one of the worst in baseball, especially with Jarred Kelenic playing Center Field. Chicago hit two balls to him in the Wild Card game, a lazy fly that was caught, and a liner that went for a double. Toronto's ability to make contact should serve them well against New York's defense.
The Yankees would be best served to have a quick hook with their starters as their bullpen is outstanding. In fact, New York relievers, an armada of powerful right-handers, had a 2.50 ERA against Toronto in the regular season. The pen went 5-2 with seven saves against the Blue Jays, and will implore Toronto to do its work early.
If Toronto needs to go to the bench, it has a deep stable of speedy backups. Eric Drouet and Luis Alexander Basabe start against lefties and provide speed and stellar defense at a minimum. Drouet hasn't hit much his rookie year, but as a substitute, his speed will play. He stole 19 of 23 bases this year. Basabe did not have a good year with the bat, but started 128 games a year ago and hit 27 home runs with 21 steals and a .263 average. He's a weapon off the bench.
Estevan Florial is similar to Drouet in that his bat hasn't proven itself in the majors, but provides another speed-and-defense option off the bench, this time from the left side. Raul Beracierta is an afterthought with all the depth options ahead of him, but, again, has good speed and plays great corner defense. Catcher Dakota Robins isn't a speedy defender, but scouts like his bat though it hasn't played well in the majors.
Season Series:
The Yankees actually won the season series 10-9, fueled in part by their strong bullpen. They went 6-4 at home, with Toronto going 5-4 in Canada. Jesse Biddle is the only starter for the Yankees that had significant success against Toronto with a 4.38 ERA. The other starters fared worse, while the relief options were terrific. New York's bats hit for a slightly worse average against Toronto than other opponents, but they hit for slightly more power.
Toronto's offense hit worse against New York than the average team. Jake Burget hit .321, Cavan Biggio, .360, and Taylor Walls .344. Kole Enright and Logan Warmoth hit under .200 though, and Guerrero Jr. only hit .213. Thomas Szapucki won four of Toronto's nine wins against the Yanks, and the combination of Osuna, Biagini, and Barnes did well in the late innings. Zeuch really struggled though, which keeps the Blue Jays from hitting the Yanks with a one-two punch.
New York had several high-profile wins against Toronto. Kelenic homered off Osuna in the ninth in the second game of the season to win a one-run game, and Sanchez hit a two-run home run off Osuna in late April for a second win in the final at bat. The home run came during a four game series with New York scoring exactly seven runs all four games to win the series 3-1. New York got a late-inning solo home run from Yeison Corredera to win a game August 19, and Sanchez blasted a two-run shot off Billy McKay in the 14th inning of September 15th for a dramatic walk off.
Toronto's wins often saw Szapucki, Pomeranz, or Collin Wiles starting and the short relievers doing good work in the middle innings.
Deciding Questions
Will The Yankees defense be able to handle Toronto's balls in play?
Can Kopech and Zeuch handle the Yankees power?
Will the Blue Jays have an issue in their pen with Osuna banged up?
Prediction: The Yankees have showed they can slow down Toronto late and hit Toronto's lesser starters. It's hard to imagine them scoring against Szapucki though, and their defense against Toronto's contact is a real problem. Toronto wins a high-scoring series. Blue Jays 4-2.