Post by Commissioner Erick on May 23, 2020 17:10:02 GMT -5
Minnesota Twins (95-67) vs New York Yankees (94-68)
Despite nearly blowing a 3-0 lead, the New York Yankees are back in familiar territory. This is their third trip to the ALCS since 2019, with each time ending with a trip to the World Series. They've already bounced perennial heavyweight Chicago and reigning AL Champion Toronto from the postseason and look to do the same to the Minnesota Twins.
For Minnesota's part, they captured the AL Central, perhaps the toughest division in baseball this season, and rode a red hot Alex Kiriloff past Seattle to the ALCS. The Twins are young and talented, and would love to punctuate their arrival with a trip to the World Series.
Yankees Offense versus Twins Pitching
Minnesota doesn't have many standout arms, but instead has a solid group that keeps games under control for the offense to take over. As noted in the Twins-Mariners preview, only one arm is above 3.95, and that's solid Felix Jorge. Only one arm has an ERA under 3, and that's steady reliever Christian Jones.
The Twins starters tend to succeed by limiting walks, even at the expense of fewer strikeouts and more home runs. Osiris German notwithstanding, Twins starters are below the league strikeout rate, with Jorge and Nick Kingham well below. All their starters are well below the league average walk rate.
That's good news against the Yankees. Minnesota has some elevated home run counts for their pitchers, but the Yankees, as evidenced by their ALDS performance against Thomas Szapucki, can homer off of anyone. Minnesota is well positioned to limit the home runs to solo shots. For a different look, Osiris German can normally work 5 innings and show off his overwhelming stuff. He won't be able to go deeper than that, and he'll give up a home run or two, but with a 5.1% walk rate and 31.4% strikeout rate, only hitters with elite bat speed can do damage against the flame thrower.
Minnesota's bullpen tends to throw harder and be less concerned with controlling contact. Hunter Greene and Eucabio Arias can strike out anyone, but they give up a lot of walks as well. Green is excellent at keeping the ball in the park, but Arias isn't, making his profile a potential problem. Jake Reed is also a high strikeout, high walk guy, but he's coming off a dominant ALDS with only two hits and no walks in 6 innings. He's not an elite closer as his 11.2% walk rate is concerning, making his appearances fun to watch.
Givanni Soto is coming off a poor ALDS and is a traditional good reliever. High strikeouts, slightly elevated walk rate, neutral home runs. Christian Jones is more of the pitch-to-contact variety, with low walks to go along with low strikeouts. Jones wasn't used much in the ALDS but may be used more in the ALCS.
New York faced an opponent in Toronto that limited home runs and walks and forced the Yanks to rely on balls-in-play. The Yankees hit 10 home runs the entire series and had under a 10% walk rate. As a result, their offense was pretty middling and they averaged 28 runs a game. The home runs were dramatic, but without the team getting on base at a good clip, the middle of the order of Aaron Judge, Dustin Fowler, and Greg Bird were held to an average under .200 and nine RBIs combined.
Also, with Minnesota lacking a lefty-starter, the Yankees will likely keep Jorge Polanco on the bench. Polanco hit .455 in the ALDS, while Hyo-jun Park hit .067.
Twins Offense versus Yankees Pitching
The big surprise of the ALDS was how good the Yankees' pitching and defense were. They allowed 30 runs, but 10 came in one game. The Yankees allowed only a .277 BABIP and just 10 doubles, which is a recipe for success. Jared Kelenic was a huge storyline given his struggles in Center field, and his play determined the series. On plays hit to center field, or plays hit to the gaps that were not extra deep or extra shallow line drives, Toronto hit 3-12 in their four losses. In their three wins, they hit 11-15. It wasn't merely the success but the volume, with five balls a game hit to Kelenic in wins, and three hit in losses. The Twins may want to remove ground-ball hitters from their offense.
The Yankees will be at a disadvantage early in the series. Luis Severino and Austin DeCarr are the only potential starters who don't need a rest. Severino has an 0-7, 6.17 lifetime ERA in 13 playoff starts, while DeCarr's solid ALDS Game 1 performance has been the only good playoff outing in his career. He has an 8.78 mark in 13.1 innings. The Yankees should get Jesse Biddle back for Game 2 and Jorge Guzman back for Game 3, but they'll be stuck with Severino, DeCarr, or both arms for Games 1 and 4.
If the Yankees can shorten the game, their chances of winning increase exponentially. Aroldis Chapman has 3 saves in 3 postseason appearances this year, and a 1.57 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his playoff career. Giovanni Gallegos hasn't allowed a hit in 4.1 playoff innings and had a 1.44 regular season ERA. Freicer Perez and Nick Rumbelow each had outstanding regular seasons and have great stuff. So long as the Yankees can stay away from Aaron Sanchez, they'll be favored if the games become bullpen affairs.
Minnesota's offense didn't erupt against Seattle, but they generally did a good job getting on base and clanging out doubles. Alex Kirilloff had a huge series, batting .500 with three home runs and eight RBIs. Michael Busch hit .429 ahead of him and Gilberto Celestino drove in six runs. Busch and Kirloff being left-handed is a big strength for the Twins, as the Yankees are a heavily right-handed squad.
Minnesota was first in batting average during the regular season and were third in strikeout rate, just behind Toronto. The Twins also walk a fair amount, with the fourth best walk rate, just behind Toronto. The difference in the clubs is Minnesota's talent to perform on Balls in Play. Toronto's .293 BABIP ranked 9th in the AL, but Minnesota's .321 mark was first by a mile. Against the Yankees, that could be a deciding factor.
Minnesota has outstanding defense on the bench should they need to make a substitution and outstanding speed with star prospect Wessell Russchen, should the Twins get into a close game and need to scratch a run against the Yankees bullpen.
Season Series
The Twins went 6-1, taking three of four in New York in April, then sweeping New York at home in mid-September. Amaurys Minier had five RBIs in the first game they played, an 8-7 nailbiter Minnesota won. Jarred Kelenic hit a home run in the eighth off Jared Miller the next day to tie the series. Nick Plummer, Trey Cabbage, and Kenny Camacho combined for nine RBIs in a 9-3 win in Game 3 and 7 shutout innings from Jared Eickhoff wrapped up the series win. The big takeaway that opening series is that a bunch of players currently in Triple-A or on the bench handled New York pretty well.
Eickhoff pitched a gem in September with the rosters looking more similar to this series. New York managed only three hits off Eickhoff, Christian Jones, and Hunter Greene, striking out 13 times and committing three errors. The next game was closer, but the Twins worked eight walks in 5 innings against Jesse Biddle in a 7-5 win. They blasted Austin DeCarr for five runs in 2.2 innings in the finale, winning 9-2. Buster Posey had two home runs and 6 RBIs in the final two games, the only games he played against the Yanks as a member of Minnesota.
Deciding Questions
Will the Yankees defense that played so well in the ALDS continue to play well in the ALCS?
Will the Yankees get anything out of DeCarr or Severino?
If Alex Kiriloff slows down, will the Twins have enough offense to punch through?
Prediction: It seems pretty likely that the Twins will be able to hold the Yankees offense down to a reasonable degree, likely without truly shutting them down. In that case, it comes down to the other side of the ball. The Twins led the league in doubles and face a defense that isn't good at covering the gaps. That major difference between Toronto and Minnesota does in the Yankees. Twins 4-1.