2023 NLCS Preview: Phillies - Cubs
May 24, 2020 11:00:55 GMT -5
Commissioner Erick, Grubs - Philly, and 1 more like this
Post by dbackhon on May 24, 2020 11:00:55 GMT -5
Phillies (103 - 59) vs Cubs (101 - 61)
It seemed fated to happen this way. The two titans of the National League, the Phillies and the Cubs have dominated the PBA from opening day until now. The two clubs have the two best records in the PBA, the two best run differentials in the PBA (Chicago beating out Philly in that category), nine 2023 all-stars between them, the first and second best offenses in the NL. These two clubs have been on a collision course for each other since the season began. Not even young playoff legend Juan "Doorbell" Geostoso could stop this fated meeting. Both of these clubs have been here three times before, winning once and losing twice, but neither club has tasted the ultimate glory that only a Championship can bring. This combination of exceptional talent, experience, and hunger dangerous... Difficult for any team to overcome. But in order to have a shot at ultimate glory they must first prove themselves against each other and see who emerges worthy to champion the NL in the fight beyond.
Philly offense vs Chicago pitching/defense
The Philly offense is led by an unstoppable trio of lefties. Seth "Whiskey" Beer, who looks poised to win his second MVP in just his third full season; Mickey "Maniac" Moniak, the most true five-tool player in the PBA, and Darick Hall the most feared power hitter in the NL. It is not a question of whether the Cubs pitching can stop these three for making their mark on the series but whether they can stop them from fully taking it over. As good as these guys have been in the regular season, they are known for stepping it up in October and putting the team on their back. The rest of their lineup is fine, certainly is good enough to not let the production from the three mega-stars go to waste and lead Philly to lead the NL in almost every offensive category in 2023, but should not be relied upon for postseason theatrics. That isn't to say that they can't create major moments (after all Brian C. Miller won the NLDS MVP for Philly) but it is not something that the Phillies should want to rely on if they are planning on winning the series.
Chicago counters with a rotation that is solid, 6th in the NL in ERA and features with several starters who can certainly hold their own in a playoff game. The rotation is led by lefty Steven Matz (who has been good this year despite having trouble staying on the field) and deadline acquisition Cody Anderson who has had an ERA under 3 against lefties this year despite a .381 BABIP against. However the back-end of the Cubs rotation (Kyle Kendricks and Sonny Gray) have had difficulties against left-handed pitching this year and may prove to be weak spots in the Cubs rotation.
However, the strength of Chicago's pitching is not in their starting rotation, it is in their bullpen. The Cubs have invested a lot of money into their pen, hoping that big-name players will be able to get big name results. And their investment has paid off in spades, as the 2023 Cubs pen is not only the best bullpen in the PBA this year but perhaps the best bullpen of the PBA era. The Cubs pen's ERA is a miniscule 2.42 (a better rate than more closers in this year's playoffs), and between Zach Britton (1.21 ERA, and 46 saves) and Juan "Bonkers" Carrizales (1.48 ERA) the Cubs have played all year essentially limiting their opponents to 7 innings of baseball while they got the full 9. The Cubs have won a lot of games by virtue of getting to play nine innings of baseball, while their opponents effectively get to play 7 (at most). If the Phillies need a clutch run late, they have to hope that they have the three amigos due up otherwise it will be a tall order to catch up with this Cubs bullpen.
In order for the Phillies to have an advantage here they will need to make sure that they do damage to the Cubs' starters and not wait until the late innings to score. This is something that they are more than capable of doing, the question is can they do so with regularity to win the series.
Chicago Offense vs Philly Pitching
Chicago's hard-hitting offense has has been second to the otherworldly Philly offense in Runs Scores, Batting WAR, and OPS and it's easy to see why. The Cubs are a rare franchise who can genuinely boast that they have a power threat in every single slot of their lineup. Everybody know that Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Freddie Freeman can rake but at the bottom end of the lineup the cubs have Christian Yelich, and the aging but still power-packed Giancarlo Stanton. In fact Stanton was the only member of the Cubs' starting 9 that failed to reach 15 HR on the season, which was primarily because he only played in 65 games. The Chicago offense could be said to live and die by the long ball, but it lives far more often than it dies. This was key against Arizona where the Cubs were able to mitigate the stifling Arizona defense by hitting the ball into the only place where they couldn't reach it, the outfield bleachers.
Philly's pitching throughout the year has been good enough to not screw things up for their incredible offense. The starting rotation is balanced led by emerging star Franklin Kilome (20-3 2.82 ERA), who earned his first all-star nod this year and mixes a devistating 95 MPH fastball with secondary stuff that keeps batters on their toes constantly. Madison Bumgarner, while not quite the player in Philly he was in Tampa Bay and San Francisco showed that when the playoffs begin that he is every bit as dominant as he once was; in last years playoff he had an 0.90 ERA in 20 innings of work, and he did not give up an earned run in his sole playoff performance this season. Much like with Chicago, the back half of the rotation prove to be soft spots. Notably Thomas Eschelman - Philly's #3 starter - has had difficulty keeping the ball in throughout his career, which will prove to be deadly against this Cubs squad. If Philly wants to win they have to find ways of limiting walks and trying to keep the ball in the park.
The Philly bullpen has been solid, with the 3rd best ERA in the NL, their closer by committee approach and balance of lefty and right arms have allowed GM Matt Grubs to exploit matchups for best results. They certainly lack the firepower and raw talent of the Cubs pen but they are a capable unit.
Defenses
Neither team has a particularly good defense, both are among the worst in zone rating (Chicago's being dead last in the NL, Philly's being third-to-last) however Philly's defense is at least good at eliminating defensive errors which have plagued Chicago all season long, and came into play a lot during the Arizona series. Philly, like Arizona is built to exploit these kinds of mistakes, not only does it give the vaunted Philly offense a second chance to score, as well as allow the Phillies to showcase their underrated team speed (4th in SB in the NL) but it also means you are one batter closer to the heart of the order in a key moment.
Keys of the Series
Can Philadelphia strike early against Cubs pitching?
Will the Chicago pen be able to handle Moniak, Beer, Hall in a key moment?
Can Chicago's defense hold it together?
In a series full of superstars, who steps up and outshines the veritable constellation?
Prediction
It's game 7 and Chicago finds itself exactly where they want to be, up by 1 heading into the late innings. They can taste the pennant... But in a key moment a defensive lapse gives the Phillies another chance and brings up the heart of the order, who puts one over the outfield wall for a walk off win. Phillies 4 - 3
Philly offense vs Chicago pitching/defense
The Philly offense is led by an unstoppable trio of lefties. Seth "Whiskey" Beer, who looks poised to win his second MVP in just his third full season; Mickey "Maniac" Moniak, the most true five-tool player in the PBA, and Darick Hall the most feared power hitter in the NL. It is not a question of whether the Cubs pitching can stop these three for making their mark on the series but whether they can stop them from fully taking it over. As good as these guys have been in the regular season, they are known for stepping it up in October and putting the team on their back. The rest of their lineup is fine, certainly is good enough to not let the production from the three mega-stars go to waste and lead Philly to lead the NL in almost every offensive category in 2023, but should not be relied upon for postseason theatrics. That isn't to say that they can't create major moments (after all Brian C. Miller won the NLDS MVP for Philly) but it is not something that the Phillies should want to rely on if they are planning on winning the series.
Chicago counters with a rotation that is solid, 6th in the NL in ERA and features with several starters who can certainly hold their own in a playoff game. The rotation is led by lefty Steven Matz (who has been good this year despite having trouble staying on the field) and deadline acquisition Cody Anderson who has had an ERA under 3 against lefties this year despite a .381 BABIP against. However the back-end of the Cubs rotation (Kyle Kendricks and Sonny Gray) have had difficulties against left-handed pitching this year and may prove to be weak spots in the Cubs rotation.
However, the strength of Chicago's pitching is not in their starting rotation, it is in their bullpen. The Cubs have invested a lot of money into their pen, hoping that big-name players will be able to get big name results. And their investment has paid off in spades, as the 2023 Cubs pen is not only the best bullpen in the PBA this year but perhaps the best bullpen of the PBA era. The Cubs pen's ERA is a miniscule 2.42 (a better rate than more closers in this year's playoffs), and between Zach Britton (1.21 ERA, and 46 saves) and Juan "Bonkers" Carrizales (1.48 ERA) the Cubs have played all year essentially limiting their opponents to 7 innings of baseball while they got the full 9. The Cubs have won a lot of games by virtue of getting to play nine innings of baseball, while their opponents effectively get to play 7 (at most). If the Phillies need a clutch run late, they have to hope that they have the three amigos due up otherwise it will be a tall order to catch up with this Cubs bullpen.
In order for the Phillies to have an advantage here they will need to make sure that they do damage to the Cubs' starters and not wait until the late innings to score. This is something that they are more than capable of doing, the question is can they do so with regularity to win the series.
Chicago Offense vs Philly Pitching
Chicago's hard-hitting offense has has been second to the otherworldly Philly offense in Runs Scores, Batting WAR, and OPS and it's easy to see why. The Cubs are a rare franchise who can genuinely boast that they have a power threat in every single slot of their lineup. Everybody know that Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Freddie Freeman can rake but at the bottom end of the lineup the cubs have Christian Yelich, and the aging but still power-packed Giancarlo Stanton. In fact Stanton was the only member of the Cubs' starting 9 that failed to reach 15 HR on the season, which was primarily because he only played in 65 games. The Chicago offense could be said to live and die by the long ball, but it lives far more often than it dies. This was key against Arizona where the Cubs were able to mitigate the stifling Arizona defense by hitting the ball into the only place where they couldn't reach it, the outfield bleachers.
Philly's pitching throughout the year has been good enough to not screw things up for their incredible offense. The starting rotation is balanced led by emerging star Franklin Kilome (20-3 2.82 ERA), who earned his first all-star nod this year and mixes a devistating 95 MPH fastball with secondary stuff that keeps batters on their toes constantly. Madison Bumgarner, while not quite the player in Philly he was in Tampa Bay and San Francisco showed that when the playoffs begin that he is every bit as dominant as he once was; in last years playoff he had an 0.90 ERA in 20 innings of work, and he did not give up an earned run in his sole playoff performance this season. Much like with Chicago, the back half of the rotation prove to be soft spots. Notably Thomas Eschelman - Philly's #3 starter - has had difficulty keeping the ball in throughout his career, which will prove to be deadly against this Cubs squad. If Philly wants to win they have to find ways of limiting walks and trying to keep the ball in the park.
The Philly bullpen has been solid, with the 3rd best ERA in the NL, their closer by committee approach and balance of lefty and right arms have allowed GM Matt Grubs to exploit matchups for best results. They certainly lack the firepower and raw talent of the Cubs pen but they are a capable unit.
Defenses
Neither team has a particularly good defense, both are among the worst in zone rating (Chicago's being dead last in the NL, Philly's being third-to-last) however Philly's defense is at least good at eliminating defensive errors which have plagued Chicago all season long, and came into play a lot during the Arizona series. Philly, like Arizona is built to exploit these kinds of mistakes, not only does it give the vaunted Philly offense a second chance to score, as well as allow the Phillies to showcase their underrated team speed (4th in SB in the NL) but it also means you are one batter closer to the heart of the order in a key moment.
Keys of the Series
Can Philadelphia strike early against Cubs pitching?
Will the Chicago pen be able to handle Moniak, Beer, Hall in a key moment?
Can Chicago's defense hold it together?
In a series full of superstars, who steps up and outshines the veritable constellation?
Prediction
It's game 7 and Chicago finds itself exactly where they want to be, up by 1 heading into the late innings. They can taste the pennant... But in a key moment a defensive lapse gives the Phillies another chance and brings up the heart of the order, who puts one over the outfield wall for a walk off win. Phillies 4 - 3
