2023 World Series Preview
May 30, 2020 9:53:15 GMT -5
dbackhon, Grubs - Philly, and 1 more like this
Post by Commissioner Erick on May 30, 2020 9:53:15 GMT -5
Chicago Cubs versus Minnesota Twins
The Chicago Cubs have won their division every single year of their PBA existence, dominating their National League Central brethren. Chicago has averaged winning their division by 16 games over that span, setting themselves up as a juggernaut destined for success. However, despite their supremacy over their NL Central rivals, Chicago has not had the most illustrious postseason history. They have zero championships to their name, and just one pennant, way back in 2018.
Brandon Hillebrand's singular goal has been erasing that fact, driving his owner, Tom Ricketts, mad in the process. Hillebrand's Cubs are in financial turmoil, and Chicago's budgets for 2024 are likely to be slashed by Ricketts as punishment for spending money Ricketts did not allow. Without a championship, Hillebrand's maniacal spending spree would only serve to have pissed Rickets off and undermined the franchise's long-term efforts in the process. Without a championship, Hillebrand's regular season heroics over the past near-decade may ring hollow once history takes its course and shorthand glances at titles past fail to produce the word "Cubs."
This year's Cubs team has needed some verve to end up four wins from a championship. With the team up a game over St. Louis with three games remaining in the season, Chicago needed to buckle down to avoid the Wild Card Game. They got 7.2 innings of one-run ball from their bullpen the first two games of the series to say goodbye to St. Louis and punch their ticket to the NLDS. The Cubs fell behind 2-0 in both playoff series they played, with advancement looking like a mere dream. They advanced to a Game 7 in the NLDS where they immediately fell behind 4-0 in the third inning and came back to win. They advanced to a Game 7 in the NLDS with Steven Matz walking the first three batters of the game, while giving up a home run to lead off the second. They hung in and held on to win. These Cubs have been fighters and they'll get one last battle for a ring.
The Cubs will take on a newcomer to the World Series stage in the Minnesota Twins, led by a man looking to punctuate his team-building prowess. Ben Nuzzo was a major architect of last season's championship-winning Arizona Diamondbacks, but was not the man pulling the strings in the end to get the team to the promised land. Arlo Zimmerman was the man on stage with Doorbell Gestoso and Marco Gonzales accepting the World Series trophy, while Nuzzo, fresh off a season hiatus, was watching on TV, agreeing to return to the PBA to manage a raw Minnesota Twins team while the club he had helped put together finally reached the summit without him.
Nuzzo has showcased an ability to adapt and adjust to changing circumstances. He remade his infield from last year's team, relying on both journeymen castoffs like Sam Travis and Brian W. Anderson, as well as Rule-V castoffs in Michael Busch and unheralded youngsters like Dalton Rone. When Nuzzo saw his team as needing some extra juice to survive a grueling division, he acquired veteran stars in Buster Posey and Yoan Moncada. That ability to find talent while given uneven circumstances has been a wonder. As a result, the Twins are not only AL Champions, but they've accomplished the feat with the smallest payroll in baseball.
In fact, the difference in financial resources between Chicago and Minnesota is stupendous. The Cubs' total payroll is 297.2 million United States Dollars, about 46 million more than the next closest team. Only two of the league's top five payrolls made the postseason, but the Cubs were one of the few large markets able to leverage their financial power to their advantage. The Twins are on the other end of the spectrum, finding ways to spend their lesser resources effectively. In contrast to the Cubs, the Twins have spent only about $56 million on player expenses this season, as their highly-paid players were brought over mid-season, easing the financial burden, or have their salary retained by other teams, or both. That figure means Chicago has spent five times more on talent than Minnesota has this year, yet both teams were able to make it to the World Series.
Usually payroll discrepancies of that size indicate age discrepancies as well. Chicago is an aging roster with virtually every major player on the club at least 29 years old. Outside of Zach Britton, there aren't many major players past 34, but windows tend to start to close when teams have the entirety of their roster in the later stages of their prime years, especially as the Cubs do not have the draft capital or minor league talent to compensate.
Conversely, The Twins are young and talented and some would say a series loss would be mitigated with the expectation that their level of play would remain elite well into the future. After all, most of the team's high-profile players are just entering their mid-20s and the league's #2 prospect should have a full time roll with the club next year. Ask the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies if a young and elite nucleus is a guarantee of World Series success? Where are last year's young, impressive finalists in Arizona and Toronto this championship round? David Dahl, Nolan Arenado, and Michael Fulmer never even returned to the NLCS despite the luminescence of young talent beaming out of them. There are never any guarantees, and that goes for both teams.
Brandon Hillebrand versus Ben Nuzzo for validation.
The Cubs versus the Twins for a championship.
Twins Offense versus Cubs Pitching
The Twins' offense delivered power on the cheap this year, with a balanced attack that featured what should have been an MVP season by Alex Kiriloff. Only an ankle injury kept him from mashing, and he’s productive whenever he’s been in the lineup, with a .315/.389/.530 batting line across 124 games. In the postseason Kiriloff has upped his game, slashing .428/.525/.875. The Twins have gone 7-2 this postseason when Alex has multiple hits in a game. Amazingly Kiriloff had an even better slash line against the Cubs in the lone series between the two teams this year. Across 3 games at Wrigley, Kiriloff slashed 462/500/692. The Cubs will have their hands full trying to prevent him from collecting their pelts.
The Twins sported an AL-best .781 team OPS and have a deep, powerful outfield. All four regular outfielders hit at least 21 home runs and drove in 75. Gilberto Celestino offers speed and pop, and left fielder Akil Baddoo broke out this season with a 138 OPS+. However, in the postseason Celestino has only a 54 OPS+ and Baddoo's OPS+ has dropped to 106.
While Minnesota had top marks in the AL in both batting average and on base percentage, they fared much better against right handed pitching. Ace Chicago lefty Steven Matz knocked out Philly on little more than guile in the NLCS Game 7, and will likely make things difficult for the Twins’ lineup. Southpaw Sam Howard also had a terrific season. He’s been unlucky in the playoffs, but his 2.86 FIP portends a perhaps miserable time for Minnesota’s offense. The Cubs have three lefties in the bullpen too, including dominant closer Zach Britton. As Ben Nuzzo well knows, Chicago’s bullpen affords them dominance in the 8th and 9th, and narrows the window for opposing teams to score. Outside of their lefties though, the Cubs’ starters' , chiefly Kyle Hendricks and Cody Anderson, have been knocked around leading to the Cubs needing to use their bullpen more. When he’s been able, Brandon Hillebrand has run with a three-man rotation and let relievers like Joe Caulder and Nick Wittgren effectively pick up a heavier-than-normal workload in the middle innings.
One big story line in this World Series is the whopping difference in payroll sizes between the two teams.
This tiny Twins payroll swelled a bit with the additions of Yoan Moncada and Buster Posey before the deadline, but it’s been money well spent: Moncada swiped 22 bags in just 50 games. Posey posted an .886 OPS in 49 games. In the playoffs though it has been a different story for Moncada. He has hit only 128/281/170 and stolen a single base. Struggling in October has been a common theme for Moncada, as his career wRC+ in the postseason is a mere 76 over 47 games. Posey had a rough couple of outings in game's 5 and 6 of the ALCS, but has otherwise been solid.
Cubs Offense versus Twins Pitching
The Cubs faced an elite defense in the NLDS and an elite pitching staff in the NLCS, and their power and OPS numbers in the playoffs are way better than their regular season mark that was second in runs and first in homers. Chicago already has 26 playoff home runs and a .506 slugging percentage, 50 points higher than Philadelphia's league-leading mark of .456 in the regular season. They've also blasted 36 doubles for when their batted balls haven't gone over the fence.
Chicago will face a Twins pitching staff that is also getting better in the postseason, producing a 3.11 ERA that would have led the league in the regular season by 52 points. The Twins held offensive superstar Francisco DeJesus without an RBI in the ALDS, and held five Yankees to an OPS of .449 or lower, smothering Seattle and New York in the process.
This matchup will feature two units firing on all cylinders.
Minnesota will be helped by their majority right-handed staff. With so many talented righty hitters, Chicago's postseason numbers are even better against left-handed pitching, especially once Francisco Lindor returned. Daryl Wilson does not need to be accounted for, meaning Chicago effectively has two lefty bats in their lineup. Relievers Christian Jones and Giovanni Soto may not be needed much.
It will be up to right-handed pitchers to stymie Chicago's same-side sluggers. Top-line righties with great stuff had success overwhelming Chicago's bats at times. Chris Archer had an outstanding start in Game 6 of the NLDS for example, while Franklyn Kilome went 16.1 shutout innings, allowing two walks, striking out 19, and giving up only five hits.
Minnesota does not have those kinds of pitchers outside of Osiris German, who has burst onto the scene in the playoffs. German's inability to go deep into games made him formidable in the regular season, but somewhat lacking due to the rigors of regular season play. Without a need to pace himself, German has excelled this postseason however, with four wins in four starts and a 2.95 ERA. German has walked six and whiffed 33, and given Chicago's penchant to strike out, should be a weapon against the Cubs.
Chicago was able to have more variable success against finesse arms and groundballers, and those pitchers make up the rest of Minnesota's rotation. Chicago shares some similarities to the New York team Minnesota was able to vanquish, but Chicago's ability to drive in doubles makes them less reliant on all-or-nothing swings for home runs. The Cubs faced an excellent defense in Arizona in the NLDS and bashed 21 doubles and two triples against their arms and gloves. Felix Jorge and Nick Kingham have been exceptional at preventing home runs at least, with the duo combining for one tater this postseason. If they can keep the Cubs fly balls in the park, that may be the key to the series.
Minnesota's bullpen has been very strong this postseason with key arms having big success. Former top prospect Hunter Greene has been a weapon as a long man and has a 2.16 ERA with two walks and 14 strikeouts in 8.1 innings. He's the kind of power arm that can succeed against Chicago. Greene has been a weapon as one of the first out of the pen, while Jake Reed has been exceptional as the last man called upon. Reed has issued just one run in 11 innings, and it took a fluke home run from Hyo-Jun Reed in a fourth inning pitched to create that blemish. Reed has allowed just three hits this playoffs and has fanned 14.
In the middle, Eucebio Arias has a 4.26 playoff ERA, but he's struck out 12 in 6.1 innings against two walks. Arias may have success against the Cubs if he throws strikes. Connor Bennett has had good success as a middle reliever this postseason with a 1.69 ERA, but Kaleb Fleck may be the better option this round. Bennett doesn't strike out a batter an inning and high-strikeout arms tend to be best against the Cubs. Fleck has bigger stuff that may compensate for his issues with homers in prior years.
Minnesota's defense is very good, with the one weak spot, Alex Kiriloff, protected a bit by Chicago's right-handed hitters. This should allow the Twins defense to be a weapon this series. Buster Posey didn't have the best year controlling the running game, which could be a factor if Daryl Wilson or Francisco Lindor get on base a lot.
Chicago doesn't use its bench much at all, but there's good defense back there and Javier Guerra was a hero in Game 4 of the NLDS with a game-winning home run.
Season Series
The Twins won their series with Chicago 2-1 in late June into early July. Alex Kirilloff went 4-4 with 4 RBIs in the first game of the series, a 6-3 Twins victory. Kyle Hendricks allowed eight hits in 3.2 innings, but both teams had their bullpens pitch well. Manny Machado hit two home runs off Dan Straily the next day to tie the series up. After Osiris German went down with an injury early in the finale, Denyi Reyes, Eucibio Arias, and Jake Reed combined to work 7.1 innings of one-hit ball in a sensational performance. Chicago's bullpen went 8.1 without allowing a run, but Kyle Wright gave up three runs in the first inning to allow the Twins to win.
Significant Batter-Pitcher Matchups
Nicky Lopez vs Sonny Gray: 1-11, 0 HR
Yoan Moncada vs Steven Matz: 5-23, 0 HR
Yoan Moncada vs Kyle Hendricks: 2-16, 0HR
Javier Guerra vs Nick Kingham: 1-11, 1 HR
Wilson Contreras vs Jerad Eickoff: 3-12, 0 HR
Freddie Freeman vs Nick Kingham: 4-14, 3 HR
Freddie Freeman vs Jerad Eickoff: 6-16, 2 HR
Xander Bogaerts vs Nick Kingham: 3-14, 2 HR
Manny Machado vs Dan Straily: 10-30, 4 HR
Manny Machado vs Felix Jorge: 4-11, 0 HR
Francisco Lindor vs Dan Straily: 4-11, 2 HR
Kris Bryant vs Nick Kingham: 4-11, 1 HR
Christian Yelich vs Nick Kingham: 3-13, 0 HR
Christian Yelich vs Felix Jorge: 2-10, 0 HR
Christian Yelich vs Jerad Eickoff: 9-30, 1 HR
Giancarlo Stanton vs Dan Straily: 5-21, 0 HR
Giancarlo Stanton vs Jake Reed: 3-10, 2 HR
Giancarlo Stanton vs Felix Jorge: 5-21, 0 HR
Deciding Questions
Who will win the battle of Chicago's offense against Jorge, Kingham, and Reyes?
Will any of Chicago's right-handed starters be able to slow down Minnesota's offense?
Will Alex Kirilloff be the best player in the series?
Prediction: It should be very close. German gives the Twins a huge edge, and at least the other Twins starters are right-handed and solid. That should keep Chicago's offense from dictating the tenor of the series. That being said, Matz and Howard should be tough for Minnesota to handle and the bullpens should be a wash. The amount of righties on Minnesota should be enough for them eek out enough close wins, including one in Game 7. Twins 4-3
