Post by Commissioner Erick on Jul 1, 2020 0:42:48 GMT -5
The 2018 Draft didn't see nearly the talent the 2017 draft did. There are a bushel of elite middle infielders who came out of the draft, and a few star bats in Francisco DeJesus and Seth Beer. On the mound, very few arms have established themselves early in their career. There are a few arms that have potential, but the class lacks pitching depth and surefire frontline arms. Very few teams acquired exceptional quality and great depth, though the majority of teams landed a good player somewhere along the line. The underwhelming pool helped curve grades somewhat, though the fact that most teams found either one star or good depth resulted in the majority of grades landing in the B-range. There were few A's and few Fs.
Arizona Diamondbacks
First Round: (10) Jake Higginbotham—P
Second Round: (4) Thomas Burbank—P—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (4) Cole Wilcox—P—UNSIGNED
Best Player: Jake Higginbotham
Best Deep Cut: (12) Josh Rolette
Total ML WAR: 1.3
Review: After making a detour through the Atlanta organization following a 2019 trade, Jake Higginbotham eventually found his way back home to Arizona where he has continued his fairly pedestrian pitching career. While posting respectable minor league numbers, he hasn’t fared particularly well in the majors, logging just 123 IP over three seasons, mostly in relief, with a career 4.78 FIP and 0.71 WAR. He’s 28 now, and while it’s unlikely he’ll ever become an impact player, he still sports some tantalizing pitching ratings and could potentially help a team as a LOOGY or middle-inning reliever.
Arizona failed to sign it’s second through fourth round draft picks in 2018, and none of the team’s other 2018 picks have contributed at the major-league level except eighth rounder Clay Moffitt. Following a series of trades, Moffitt has put up a combined 0.55 career WAR for the Braves and Padres. He spent 2023 in San Diego’s rotation, logging 121 IP with an unsightly 5.93 ERA and 67 ERA+ . Like Higginbotham, his pitching ratings are above average and may keep him in the majors despite his underwhelming performance.
Grade: C-: Arizona’s 2018 draft produced two league-average pitchers, but that’s about it. None of their other picks have made it to the major leagues, nor are any of them expected to do so at this point. Moreover, their second and third round picks, Burbank and Wilcox, were both drafted the following year by Pittsburgh and are currently pitching on the Pirates major league squad. Burbank in particular looks like he has a decent career ahead of him as a league-average starter.
Atlanta Braves
First Round: (12) Jacob Pearson—CF
Second Round: (10) Devin Ortiz—P
Third Round: (9) Jose Ciccarello—SS
Best Player: Jacob Pearson
Best Deep Cut: Chase Smartt (14)
Total ML WAR: 10.4
Review: Pearson's taken a winding path, being drafted twice, traded once, and selected in the Rule-V draft, but he's a first-division starter for Detroit which is what you want your first round picks to become. Similarly, Devin Ortiz looks like a mid-rotation arm and had a solid rookie season as a 24-year-old. Neither of them look like superstars, but they're strong doubles.
The Braves also hit with fifth rounder Brock Lundquist, a balanced bat who hit .294 for Arizona this season with adequate defense. Getting a nearly 2-WAR player in the fifth round isn't something that happens often.
Jose Ciccarello never developed the bat to go with the glove and is a Free Agent currently, making that a missed pick. Fourth-rounder Nolan Kingham is a last-man in the bullpen prospect at best, and sixth rounder Jarrett Montgomery is out of baseball.
Grade: B+: The early picks are very solid, though the lack of depth brings the grade down a smidge. Atlanta has amassed the fifth most WAR of the draft so far, and should continue to grow that with Pearson and Ortiz being young. There were some picks Atlanta could have taken instead, such as Ryan Johnson or Francisco DeJesus, that also bring the grade down slightly.
Baltimore Orioles
First Round: (18) Levi Kelly—P
First Round: (24) Jack Carey—P—Compensation for not signing Nick Allen
Second Round: (20) Mike Siani—LF
Third Round: (17) Hunter Bowling—P
Best Player: Mike Siani
Best Deep Cut: Dillon Paulson (16)
Total ML WAR: 3.9
Review: Overall, 2018 was a solid draft for Baltimore. The team drafted at least five PBA players. In the first round the O’s took a pair of starting pitching prospects in Levi Kelly and Jack Carey. Of the two, Carey looks to have a more promising future. He already debuted in 2023 and profiles as a mid-rotation starter with movement issues holding him back from being a truly dependable number two.
Kelly has struggled to develop his control and was recently waived by the O’s, ending up in the White Sox organization. There is still enough upside there for a reliever role if the control can improve some.
Baltimore’s best player from this draft so far came from the 2nd round. Outfielder Mike Siani has 3 WAR in 349 career PBA games. He is coming off a 2023 campaign that saw him put up a solid 2.5 WAR over a full season. Siani is a bit of an odd player. He doesn’t truly have the glove for CF, or the bat for a corner spot. However his speed and contact skills make him a solid player, and at only age 24 there is room to improve.
Baltimore’s third rounder is the only early pick from this class that won’t make the majors. Hunter Bowling should start looking into hunting and bowling. At almost 27 years old in A+ ball his baseball future does not look too good. He’s a curious pick as it appears OSA never liked him to begin with.
The best deep cut for Baltimore was 16th rounder Dillon Paulson. Paulson was waived in 2022 despite not having service time or being on the Orioles’ 40 man roster. He was claimed by Milwaukee and put together a few big years at AA. Paulson has decent potential and should make the Brewers roster at some point this season as a first baseman. He has the potential to be a middle of the road type 1B. His best attribute may be his plus glove for the position. Another notable pick after the early rounds was fourth rounder Kevin Dowdell. Dowdell can be a backup outfielder and made his debut last season.
Grade: B+: This draft emphasized quantity over quality for the Orioles. Five PBA players is a lot for one draft class but none of those players look to have true star potential. If the Levi Kelly pick had worked out better this draft would definitely go down as an A.
Boston Red Sox
First Round: (20) Tristan Lutz—RF—UNSIGNED
Second Round: (22) Mitch Hickey—P—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (18) Donny Sellers—P—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (27) Nick Donnelly—1B—Compensation for not signing Tyler Freeman—UNSIGNED
Best Player: (12) Michael McAdoo Jr.
Best Deep Cut: (12) Michael McAdoo Jr.
Total ML WAR: -0.1
Review: Boston failed to sign any of its top five draft picks in 2018. Of their remaining draftees that year, all but a small handful are either retired or playing in independent leagues. The only player to have made a major league roster so far is Michael McAdoo Jr., a forgettable right fielder who debuted last season for the Red Sox at 26, putting up a line of .192/.218/.365 in 55 plate appearances. He has a decent glove and might stick as a fourth outfielder, but he’s never hit well even in the low minors and doesn’t appear to have much potential at this point. While failing to sign your top draft picks usually hurts an organization, that really wasn’t the case for Boston in 2018. Lutz and Donnelly are still toiling away in the low minors with unremarkable careers, and Hickey and Sellers have already retired.
Grade: D-: Boston’s 2018 draft hasn’t produced a single major-league quality player. McAdoo, the only guy who will likely ever play at the major league level, has a negative career major league WAR and little chance of adding any real value to the Red Sox, either directly or via a trade. The most positive aspect of the draft was that Boston didn’t waste any money on their top draft picks, all of whom have either washed out or are in the process of doing so for other teams.
Chicago White Sox
First Round: (2) Alex Faedo—P
Second Round: (11) Ryan Johnson—LF
Third Round: (10) Traded to Kansas City for Eric Hosmer. Pick turned into Jordan Pearce
Best Player: Ryan Johnson
Best Deep Cut: Cal Raleigh (11)
Total ML WAR: 16.5
Review: Alex Faedo was assumed to be the next great Chicago ace, but he never developed his changeup, grew frustrated in his inability to master the pitch, stopped throwing it, and as a result was destined for the bullpen. Though he's had some rocky moments in big situations, Faedo at least looks like he has elite closer potential. Still, you want more than a relief arm with the second overall pick.
Ryan Johnson was traded to Arizona in a deal for Jimmie Sherfy and has become a solid second-division starter with good pop and some strong defense. He has more WAR than anyone picked after him, though there are some outfielders behind him with good upside.
While Eric Hosmer was awful during Chicago's 2018 title run, he was a serviceable regular season first baseman for them. Pearce doesn't look like anything more than a Triple-A pitcher, so that deal worked out.
None of Chicago's picks in the rest of the top 10 look like they'll work out and most have retired. Cal Raleigh, grabbed in the 11th round, has been a revelation though. He has 4.44 career WAR and he's one of only two players popped after the sixth round with more than 0.2 WAR. In fact, by WAR, he's been the ninth best player in the draft as a slugging-oriented catcher.
In fact, Chicago has found more quality after the 10th round than pretty much every other team. Jonathan India, selected in the 15th round, hasn't succeeded in a few cups of coffee in the majors, but looks like a useful backup who can play Second Base, Third Base, and in a pinch, Shortstop. He'll likely never be a starter and is going to be 27 next season, but that's a win for a 15th rounder.
Most impressive is 30th round pick Kenny Saenz. Drafted with the 902nd pick, Saenz has pitched in nine PBA games and hasn't allowed a run. Last year, he put up 2.9 WAR in the International League with 184 strikeouts in 153.2 innings. Considering where Saenz was picked, and combine it with the total lack of depth of the class, and the fact that Saenz can help contribute to a PBA roster is nothing short of miraculous.
Grade: B: The Faedo pick doesn't look great in hindsight, but most of the other early first round picks after him are just getting their careers started. There's a lot of variance in how Faedo will grade when we take another look back in five seasons. Johnson was a solid, unspectacular pick, and the decision to trade for Hosmer also looks like a B trade in hindsight. Raleigh was a great selection, and India and Saenz make up for the fact that Chicago won't get anything out of their picks in rounds 4-10.
Chicago Cubs:
First Round: (29) Kendall Simmons—SS
First Round: (31) Kristopher Armstrong—P—Compensation for not signing Blake Hunt
Second Round: (31) Ben Jordan—P—Compensation for not signing David Banuelos—UNSIGNED
Second Round: (34) Luis Gonzalez—LF
Third Round: (31) Mitchell Kilkenny—P—Compensation for not signing Michael Mercado—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (34) Ricky Tyler Thomas—P—UNSIGNED
Best Player: Kristopher Armstrong
Best Deep Cut: N/A, all out of baseball
Total ML WAR: 0.7
Review: Kendall Simmons is still young and will spend the majority of next year as a 24-year-old. He's a terrific defender and runner, but he has a bat best suited to High-A. Kristopher Armstrong was taken two picks after and has big stuff and perhaps enough of a changeup to have him stick as a starting pitcher. Armstrong is still young and will spend next year as a 24-year-old. The decision to not sign Hunt in 2017, who may be a starting Catcher, in order to sign Armstrong is likely a neutral one.
The Cubs didn't sign David Banuelos in 2017, got a pick for it, and used it to not sign Ben Jordan, who is currently out of baseball. They also failed to sign Michael Mercado in 2017, who threw a no-hitter last year, and got a 2018 pick for it. They used that pick on Mitchell Kilkenny and didn't sign him.
In fact, the Cubs had extra picks in 2018 yet only signed 23 players. Partly a result of only having 23 signees, only four players are currently still playing baseball with second rounder Luis Gonzalez and sixth rounder Jack Conlon joining Simmons and Armstrong.
Gonzalez has a pretty good ability to put bat-to-ball, allowing him to be slightly better than replacement level as a major leaguer as he doesn't have much power, speed, or defensive skills. Conlon suffered three labrum tears that sapped his upside as a pitcher.
Grade: F: They missed on their first pick, got nothing on their later picks, and punted on signing 2017 draft picks to select worse players in 2018. Armstrong's potential as a pitcher in a pitching-weak draft may rescue the draft, but he hasn't pitched above Double-A yet. Gonzalez is a Quad-A player. That's not enough of a return considering the sheer number of picks they had available.
Cincinnati Reds
First Round: (9) Xavier Edwards—SS
Second Round: (1) Jimmy Herron—RF
Third Round: (1) Justin Hooper—P
Best Player: Xavier Edwards
Best Deep Cut: (11) Mak Sexton
Total ML WAR: 1.0
Review: Xavier Edwards looks like a player who can be a first-division shortstop for a long time. He's still growing into his body and may never hit for power, but he has great athleticism that makes baseball look easy. As someone picked ahead of Brice Turang, he'll be judged a bit harshly, but the fact that he played the 2023 season at the same age as Turang and had a successful one allows the pick to stand up a little better.
Jimmy Herron could be a second-division starting Right Fielder, but was selected two spots ahead of first-division superstar Francisco DeJesus. Justin Hooper could be a back-end starter in the majors in a year, though he looks mostly like a replacement-player-caliber arm.
Fourth-rounder Tim Elko was released after not hitting too much in the lower minors and has popped up in the Japanese minors where he looks like a possible starter in the Nippon League if he can ever tap into his power. Catcher Jackson Leuck hit all over the low-minors, wasn't promoted, and retired, squandering an opportunity. Mak Sexton could be a backup catcher with a few breaks as he's young and has excellent defensive chops.
Virtually every arm selected from the fourth round on has retired from baseball. In fact, 22 of the 29 players Cincinnati drafted and signed have retired from professional baseball, so there won't be any hidden jewels coming from late round picks.
Grade: B: The Edwards pick looks like a good one, and the first four picks all look like decent selections relative to expected outcomes. None of the four picks look like they provide any extra value over expected return though, and so many of the mid-round and late-round picks wont supply any value either. Still, a few singles will produce a run, and this draft produced a better grade than C.
Cleveland Indians
First Round: Forfeited as a result of signing J.D. Martinez
Supplemental Round: (2) Chase Goldwater—Gained as a result of not resigning Carlos Santana
Second Round: (30) Garret Cave—P
Third Round: (30) Michael Curry—C
Best Player: Michael Curry
Best Deep Cut: (12) Andrew Sharpe
Total ML WAR: 0
Review: This Cleveland draft may be one of the weirdest in PBA history. Cleveland forfeited their first rounder to sign J.D. Martinez to a massive contract. Martinez put up only 2 WAR in 601 games in Cleveland. He fell off a cliff after 2020 and is now an albatross contract on the Mets payroll following a complicated trade between the Mets and Indians to exchange dead weight. Martinez would be remembered in Cleveland as a total waste of money if not for his 2020 postseason where he put up 0.9 WAR in 15 games, essentially half the value he ever provided to the team in the regular season. Martinez hit for a 1.128 OPS and the Indians won the World Series. Flags fly forever though so while the process behind his signing looks poor, the results worked out.
Cleveland obtained a supplemental pick in this class as compensation for the loss of 1B Carlos Santana. The pick was used to select 1B Chase Goldwater. Goldwater is currently in High-A in the Rays organization and doesn't look like the will ever make the majors. On draft day he had only 0.5 star OSA potential so this looks like a particularly bad pick that early in the draft.
In the second round Cleveland took SP Garret Cave. Cave blew out his arm shortly after being signed. It also looks like he will never make the major leagues. He is currently in Triple-A with the Rays as a mediocre RP.
In the third round Cleveland selected C Michael Curry but they may as well have not drafted anyone at all. Curry was signed by the Indians and then released before the period for signing draftees expired. Curry spend less than a month total in the Cleveland organization. Two days after he was released he signed a contract with the Saitama Seibu Lions of the NPB and was immediately a top 15 prospect in the league. Curry made the Lions roster in 2023 and was an All Star. OSA thinks he definitely has PBA talent so this whole series of events looks rough for the Indians. Immediately releasing a third round draft prospect never makes sense, and it's even worse when they turn into a solid player for another team. The Indians would have been better off if they had never signed him at all, because then they would have at least received a compensation pick. Cleveland successfully identified a useful player but then botched adding him to their organization.
There are no real deep cuts in this draft class for Cleveland. None of their other picks made the PBA or look like they will in the future.
Grade: F: Martinez helped Cleveland to win a championship so they were going to receive a D at first. Releasing Curry and the 0 total WAR from the rest of the class knocks Cleveland down a peg
Colorado Rockies:
First Round: (22) Brandon Boissierre—LF
Second Round: (23) Alec Sanchez—2B
Third Round: (22) Sam McMillan—C
Best Player: (6) Griffin Helms
Best Deep Cut: (12) Blake Jackson
Total ML WAR: 4.6
Review: The soft hitting lefty speedster Brandon Boissierre has panned out as a passable starter in at the PBA level. Boissierre had some very good years in the minors and has been with the big club for two years. He has struggled somewhat at the PBA level, managing just 0.2 WAR in 113 games played this season. I can see the logic of Colorado wanting a high-OBP guy and speedster to ensure that their sluggers aren't only hitting solo shots but he hasn't made the step to become the player that Colorado thought they were getting when they drafted him. He's played a lot of First Base so far in the majors where his bat doesn't play.
Sanchez is another high contact middle infielder in a league, and draft, that has had many of them. Sanchez posted high BABIP numbers at every stop that he has made in the minors but those numbers took a dip when he got a cup of coffee with the Rockies this past year. He has the tools to succeed, and has shown promise in the minors.
McMillan was picked up in the Rule V draft (picked straight out of high-A ball!) by the Orioles almost entirely based off of his defensive ability and beat out veteran Buster Posey for the starting job in the middle of the year. He performed better than expected at the plate as well picking up 12 HR and batting fifth in the lineup. McMillan will likely not bat fifth for much of his career but his defensive ability will overshadow his lack of prowess and consistency at the plate.
Griffin Helms was picked up by Milwaulkee in the Rule V draft this past year and belted 23HR to go with good defense, and a cruddy average, in his rookie season with the Brew Crew.
Grade: B: The Rockies drafted a stable of players who could become solid starters in the years to come. However, the two that have had the most success are no longer on the team (and the Rockies for nothing in return for them) and their skillset is probably better suited for stadiums other than Coors. The Boissierre grade is likely a B- and if the top two draft picks, Boissierre and Sanchez, can show the same game that they had in the minors this draft could be as good as a A- but for now I'd say it is a solid B.
Detroit Tigers:
First Round: (16) Brice Turang—SS
Supplemental Round: (1) Chris Seise—SS—Compensation for not resigning J.D. Martinez
Second Round: (18) Jonathan Stroman—P
Third Round: (16) Mason Englert—P—UNSIGNED
Best Player: Brice Turang
Best Deep Cut: Cody Callaway (22)
Total ML WAR: 7.3 WAR
Review: A lot of Shortstops were taken in the first round of the 2018 draft, and Turang stands up quite well to them. He's younger than even the young prospects Nick Allen, Xavier Edwards, Royce Lewis, and Kendall Simmons. Despite that, he has more WAR than any of them aside from Taylor Walls who is four years Turang's elder. Turang was the 2022 Rookie of the Year and likely still has growing to do. Walls' presence knocks the grade down to an A-, but it's still a pick that worked.
Chris Seise was drafted in a pick awarded to Detroit for not resigning J.D. Martinez. Martinez helped Cleveland win a title, but soon after turned out three straight seasons of sub-WAR play. Seisse hasn't made it above High-A yet, but has two straight years above 4.1 WAR in the Florida State League. He projects to be a speed-and-defense backup infielder.
Jonathan Stroman hasn't pitched well in Triple A and doesn't look like an impact major leaguer. Neither Detroit's third or fourth rounders were signed, which is a bummer with third rounder Mason Englert making it to Triple-A and looking like a decent prospect thus far.
Erick Migueles was drafted in the sixth round. He has terrific plate discipline and a line drive swing that helped him hit .332 in Triple-A Toledo this year. He could make the majors as a second-division starter as a Right Fielder. Virtually nobody taken after Migueles has much of a future, as a number of mid-round and late-round picks have already retired.
Detroit made a good move picking up Turang and got Seise for free after letting J.D. Martinez move on. Migueles was also a hit. However, Detroit gets knocked for getting almost no hope of value from a number of picks.
Grade: B+: Detroit did well in picking Turang and getting a decent prospect for the cost of letting J.D. Martinez. The grade is dragged down a touch by the sheer number of players they picked who have retired from pro baseball. There isn't a lot of depth to the class at all. Still, nailing the first round pick is the most important thing, and Detroit did that.
Houston Astros:
First Round: (32) Michael Mercado—P
Second Round: (35) Randy Abisher—P
Third Round: (35) Tanner Dodson—P
Best Player: Michael Mercado
Best Deep Cut: Nick Dalesandro (12)
Total ML WAR: 0.3
Review: Houston emphasized pitching in a disappointing draft class for pitching. At least they got one good arm in the deal. Mercado had an awful rookie year, going 3-20 and suffering from extreme growing pains. Houston benefited from Mercado's internship though, as he had a promising sophomore season in 2023 and fired a no-hitter. He's still developing his off-speed pitches and looks like he can be a strong mid-rotation arm.
Second rounder Randy Abisher looks like a Triple-A starter or major league reliever, which isn't great for a second-rounder. He hasn't had great on-field success either, plus he's had major problems coming back from a torn labrum, so he's looking like a bust.
Third rounder Tanner Dodson had elbow problems early in his career and back problems all throughout 2023, deciding to retire after being released after a frustrating season. Fourth and fifth rounders Chris Hopkins and Hunter Hart never made it above A-Ball before retiring. Ninth-rounder Tanner Morris has a glove that can play at short and a decent hit tool so he's a guy who could be a backup with luck.
Sixth rounder Drew Lunde has had a fascinating career. He was undrafted in 2017 after college, then was picked by Houston in 2018, before being cut early in 2019. He signed a minor league deal in Korea and had an awful 2019 where he put up -4.0 WAR in their minor league. He followed that up with a tremendous 2020 where had 3.2 WAR with a 0.49 ERA. He had a decent 2021 in the minors and a decent 2022 rookie year. He then turned in a spectacular 2023 where he was the runner up for Best Pitcher, and then tore his flexor tendon after 5.2 scoreless innings in the postseason. He could probably hold his own in the majors, and if he returns, deserves a movie about his career.
Grade: C+: Mercado is a strong pick, but not having much until the sixth round hurts the grade. Houston did get some value with some mid-round picks to give Houston a perfectly average C+ grade.
Kansas City Royals:
First Round: (4) Grant Burton—CF
Second Round: (7) Luken Baker—P
Third Round: (7) Matt Ruppenthal—P
Third Round: (10) Jordan Pearce—P (Pick Acquired from Chicago White Sox for Eric Hosmer)
Best Player: Grant Burton
Best Deep Cut: Cordell Dunn (11)
Total ML WAR: 2.6
Review: The Royals drafted Grant Burton and not much else in 2018. Burton’s talent covers up for the lack of success at other picks, however. Burton looks like one of the better young outfield talents in the league. He had 2.2 WAR in a promising 2023 rookie season. He is a bit of a tweener outfielder. He doesn’t quite have the glove for CF but he can play it at a slightly below average level, which stills works with his bat. Long term he profiles best as a Right Fielder with an elite glove who can create some havoc on the basepaths.
Second round pick Pitcher Luken Baker has a -0.8 career fWAR and 1.4 career bWAR. He was traded by the Royals for 2B Luis Arraez who had 0.5 WAR in his brief stint with the Royals. Baker then ended up on the Braves via the rule V draft and had a 2.80 ERA as a rookie. That season appears to be a mirage now. Baker followed up that rookie season with a -1.0 WAR campaign and has struggled to contain the walks. He isn’t a total bust of a second round pick but he isn’t exactly what you hope for.
The Royals third rounder, SP Matt Ruppenthal, was involved in a big trade to land C Miguel Gomez. He later ended up on waivers and was claimed by San Francisco. He had 0.7 WAR in a mixed role as a starter and reliever for the Giants but then suffered a rough arm injury and was out all of 2023. It remains to be seen if he can get back to that level, but having lost stamina and movement, it may be tough. The Royals other third rounder, Jordan Pearce, is nothing to write home about. He no longer has Major League potential as a ruptured UCL hurt his development.
In terms of deep cuts, it is pretty bleak for KC. 11th round Catcher Cordell Dunn is the only other player who has any sort of potential in this class. He may one day make it as a backup catcher. If he does though, that will be for the White Sox, as he is no longer a member of the Kansas City Royals.
Grade: C+: Grant Burton was a very good pick, but he was a Top Five pick in a draft class. Those are the types of picks that you should be nailing. The rest of the haul is just not very good.
Los Angeles Angels:
First Round: (15) Cole Sands—P
Second Round: (13) John Malcom—1B—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (12) Joe DeMers—P
Best Player: Cole Sands
Best Deep Cut: (11) Doak Dozier
Total ML WAR: 1.7 WAR
Review: Sands struggled as a starter in Triple-A last year and his changeup has never developed. He's looking more and more like a relief pitcher. Already 26, if he does transition to relief, he'll be older and may decline faster. That's not the best return on a first round pick.
John Malcom hit well in Triple-A last year, but will return no value for the Angels as they didn't sign him. Malcom looks like a Quad-A type player, so maybe that wasn't the worst decision, especially with virtually none of the next 30 or so picks returning positive PBA value so far.
Third rounder Joe DeMers looks like a Quad-A reliever, so he isn't much of a get in the third round. Also, only a handful of the Angels' picks in later rounds still play professionally, they weren't great gets either.
Doak Dozier may turn out to be, at worst, the second best player selected by the Angels. He's a terrific defender with a big arm, and he has a decent approach with gap power. He's already 27, but looks like a useful backup outfielder, which is a nice find in the 11th round.
Grade: F: There's nothing there aside from Sands and Dozier, and even looking at that pair's most likely outcomes puts the review further into "there's nothing there" territory. Sands could be a useful relief pitcher, but if all you get from an entire draft class is a possibly useful relief arm, you didn't do a good job.
Los Angeles Dodgers:
First Round: (27) Grayson Rodriguez—P (Compensation for not signing Seth Romero)
First Round: (34) Jonathan Gates—P
Second Round: (26) Landon Leach—P (Compensation for not signing Nathan Handley)
Second Round: (37) Bennett Sousa—P
Third Round: (26) Mason Hickman—P (Compensation for not signing Hugh Fisher)
Third Round: (37) Grant Schnieder—P
Best Player: Grayson Rodriguez
Best Deep Cut: Tyler Anshaw (11)
Total ML WAR: -0.4
Review: The Dodgers didn't sign any of their guys in 2017, allowing the club to carry a number of extra picks in 2018 to draft a pitching armada. Grayson Rodriguez is still only 23, and he's been working his way through the minors for an eternity, but finally arrived in Triple-A this year. A four-pitch pitcher with three plus offerings, he could be a good back-end starter. Stamina is an issue, but the package is a solid one. Jonathan Gates is also only 23, and still far behind in his development. A three-pitch pitcher with good stuff and control, he just made it out of Rookie Ball this season.
Landon Leach's changeup hasn't developed, making him a fringe relief prospect, while Bennett Sousa's control isn't major league quality. Mason Hickman is a decent three-pitch pitcher who finally made it to the majors—in Korea—this past year, where he has potential to stick as an impact arm. Grant Schneider is a four-pitch pitcher on the cusp of the majors, with questions about his control keeping him in Triple-A. Already 27, he doesn't have much time for a standout career.
Fourth rounder Giovanni Digiacomo is yet another young pitcher who has back-end stuff but hasn't developed yet. Tyler Ivey was Los Angeles' fifth-rounder, a fringe back-end starter who had a big year in relief and may factor into the Dodgers' bullpen next season. Sixth rounder Thomas DiGiorgi hasn't developed his control, but seventh-rounder Garrett King looks like a well-balanced fifth starter, who is fully formed.
Tyler Anshaw is the only position player of note. He has a good eye and can hit a few homers and a lot of doubles as a third-baseman. It's not a profile that inspires a ton of success.
Grade: D: There isn't a pitcher the Dodgers' missed on as the pitching class as a whole hasn't had a ton of success in the majors so far. Still, with pitchers being so uninspiring, it's bad luck the Dodgers amassed a fleet of them. There are some starters with back-end potential, and Rodriguez can perhaps be a little more than that. It's not looking great so far, but in fairness to the Dodgers, there's still a lot of variance with the possible outcomes.
Miami Marlins:
First Round: (17) Calvin Mitchell—LF
Second Round: (17) Trevor Larnarch—RF
Third Round: (15) Jarid Joseph—3B
Best Player: Calvin Mitchell
Best Deep Cut: (20) Mijon Cummings
Total ML WAR: 1.7
Review: Miami had some success picking outfielders in this draft. After a promising rookie year, Calvin Mitchell struggled in his sophomore year with a negative win campaign. Still, he has an advanced his tool, major league power, and a good glove. He should be a starter for years as he refines his approach.
Second rounder Trevor Larnarch has pounded Triple-A for two different clubs the past two years. Brief stints in the majors haven't gone well, but the skillset looks fine and the minor-league production is impressive. Sixth rounder Chris Chatfield looks balanced in just about every area, making him a safe player who can be a second division starter or good backup.
Miami's attempts to find other positions have gone less favorably. Third round Third Baseman Jarid Joseph is out of baseball after he produced in Double A in 202 but got cut after an MVP runner-up season. Fifth Rounder Kevin Abel may be able to cut it as a middle or long relief option. Very few other players drafted are still playing professionally.
Grade: A-: Mitchell looks like a long-term starter and Larnarch looks like a pro as well. Throw in Chatfield and a draft that's fairly weak on outfielders, and that's good value.
Milwaukee Brewers:
First Round: (13) Konnor Pilkington—P
Second Round: (12) Cash Case—2B
Third Round: (11) Elijah Cabell—CF
Best Player: Zack Prajzner (6)
Best Deep Cut: Luke Shilling (11)
Total ML WAR: 2.1
Review: Pilkington has made the majors, but he's an extremely erratic pitcher with big stuff and no control. As a result, he's a reliever in the bigs. The player picked directly after him, Jeremiah Estrada, has shown more promise as a major league pitcher.
Cash Case has a 70-Grade Glove, a 70-Grade name, but a 35-Grade Bat, meaning he's a Triple-A player unless a team feels they need a defensive replacement in September. On the other hand, Elijah Cabell still needs time in the slow cooker, but his speed and defense are major league caliber and OSA thinks the bat will eventually get there.
Parker McFadden may be able to make the majors as a Quad-A reliever as a fifth rounder, while 11th rounder Luke Shilling may have the same fate. As fifth and 11th rounders in a terrible draft for pitching, that isn't nothing. 10th rounder John Boushelle and 23rd rounder Josh DeBacker likewise may be Triple-A starters, so a little bit of a development break may get them over the top.
Grade: C-: Milwaukee missed with their first few picks, though Cabell has some projection. After that, Milwaukee doesn't have too many sure bets to be impactful players, but they have a few guys who could be good in Triple-A. At that point, quantity over quality matters as the more players you have who just need a small development bump, the greater the chance one of them gets that bump.
Minnesota Twins:
First Round: (7) Seth Romero—P—UNSIGNED
Second Round: (9) Nate Pearson—P—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (8) Alek Thomas—CF—UNSIGNED
Best Player: Michael Perez (6)
Best Deep Cut: Seth Kinker (22)
Total ML WAR: 1.2
Review: The Twins didn't sign any of their first five picks in 2018, costing the team a huge talent infusion. Seth Romero retired after being cut by the Reds after 2022, but had promise, though Nate Pearson looks like a Triple-A reliever. Alek Thomas looks like a fourth outfielder, possibly a starting Center Fielder if you squint. None of these players were signed.
Still, Minnesota did find some talent in the draft. Sixth rounder Michael Perez hit .283 as a Shortstop in 53 games last year, earning 1.2 WAR, which is pretty good for a sixth rounder. Only three players produced more WAR after his selection. Also, down in the 22nd round, Minnesota picked Seth Kinker who had a strong year in Triple-A last season and looks like someone who can hold his own in the back of the rotation.
Grade: D: Minnesota found a couple of guys who look decent, a fact not every team can claim. That being said, the Twins don't have a guaranteed starter-caliber player despite picking seventh in the round. That's not the best return.
New York Yankees:
First Round: (19) Casey Mize—P (Compensation for not signing Tristan Lutz)
First Round: (25) Jarred Kelenic—RF
Second Round: (19) Keaton McKinney—P (Compensation for not signing Jeremiah Estrada)
Second Round: (25) Jake Eder—P
Third Round: (19) Drew Waters—CF (Compensation for not signing Dan Cabrera)
Third Round: (24) Jacob Allred—RF
Best Player: Jarred Kelenic
Best Deep Cut: Nick Meyer (12)
Total ML WAR: 7.0
Review: Now 26, Mize hasn't been able to crack through as a productive major leaguer. He hasn't been able to develop his breaking pitches, relying on using his splitter more and nibbling around the strike zone, torpedoing his control. The stuff and downward movement is good enough to succeed, but until the control improves, Mize is a Triple-A pitcher. Mize likely has a brighter future then Tristan Lutz at least, as Lutz doesn't look like he has a future in the upper minors let alone the majors.
Jarred Kelenic has turned into a star. As a 23-year-old, he hit .296 with an .884 OPS for the Yankees, with only a miscast role as a Center Fielder and a few core injuries holding back his WAR. He's an offensive lynchpin who could contend for MVPs in the future, and he was selected late in the first round. He's a great selection.
Keaton McKinney has never been able to develop a changeup which will likely limit him to a career in relief. Considering Jeremiah Estrada looks like a potential long-term starter, the Yankees would have been better off signing Estrada in 2017. Jake Eder struggled in his rookie season in San Francisco after being selected from the Yankees in the Rule V draft. Eder hides the ball really well and has a good curveball, which should make him a solid relief arm.
Drew Waters has great speed and defense, but doesn't have the bat to make the big leagues. The Yanks were allowed a pick to draft him because they didn't sign Dan Cabrera the year before. Where Waters looks like a stretch to play in the bigs, Cabrera looks like a solid Left Fielder in San Francisco. Like with Estrada, the Yankees would have been better served signing their 2017 pick.
Jacob Allred had a 3.2 win season for the Orioles last year as a Rule V pick from New York. Allred is a fantastic defender and put up 38 doubles in his rookie year as a 23-year-old. Only one player selected after him as put up more WAR, and Allred should be able to continue to produce for a long time.
The Yankees picked a lot of pitchers between the fourth and 11th rounds. None of those arms look like major leaguers, but the entire lot of them essentially can survive in Triple-A. There's a shot one of them makes a jump and provides positive WAR in the bigs. New York also has a terrific amount of late picks still playing professional baseball, which gives the team a chance to accumulate more WAR down the line.
Grade: B+: It's a complicated draft with quite a few moving parts. The Kelenic and Allred picks are terrific and go a long way to drive a strong grade. Eder is more of a C- as a possible reliever in the second round. While Mize is a better pick than Lutz was in 2017, the selection is undone by the Yankees other compensation picks turning out far worse than the unsigned 2017 players. Throw in a boost from the sheer quantity of mid-round picks in the upper minors and late-round picks still playing baseball, and you end up with the B+.
New York Mets:
First Round: (33) Nick Sprengel—P
Second Round: (36) Matt Pidich—P
Third Round: (36) Nick Dunn—2B
Best Player: Nick Dunn
Best Deep Cut: Will Haueter (17)
Total ML WAR: 0.3
Review: The Mets managed to draft three guys who made the PBA in this draft class so it wasn't a total failure. The problem is none of them have turned into anything positive for the Mets. First round pick P Nick Sprengel broke through to the PBA last year at age 26 and had -0.6 WAR out of the bullpen. Despite the poor year OSA thinks Sprengel still has some potential as a lefty reliever. Sprengel's development was completely mismanaged. He was thrown to the wolves in Triple-A at the age of 20 and then bounced around through all levels of the Mets system. He may have had more potential at one point, but as a guy without a plus third pitch and a lack of velocity he does not look like a great first round pick for the Mets.
Second rounder P Matt Pidich was also extremely mismanaged. He was also tossed into Triple-A to start his career and spent his first three years there putting up ERA's north of 6. Pidich retired following this past season. Pidich only ever had reliever upside but he was never really given a chance to succeed by the Mets.
Third round Second Baseman Nick Dunn looks like the only player from this Mets draft class who will amount to much. Dunn was traded three times in his career before making the PBA in 2023, showing that GMs have always seen some value in him. He was originally traded by the Mets along with some other prospects to the Mariners. In return the Mets received starter Jeff Samardzija, reliever Buddy Boshers and starter Tyler Chatwood. Samardzija pitched one season of 1.2 WAR baseball for the Mets, Boshers was a negative WAR reliever over a couple, and Chatwood blew out his arm 10 days after the trade was completed. Not exactly what you want. Dunn was traded one other time before being selected by the Phillies in the 2022 rule V draft and shipped to Baltimore for a 5th round pick. As a rookie he put up 1.3 WAR as Baltimore's starting Second Baseman. Dunn looks like he has a future as a solid platoon Second Baseman baseman which would be good value for his draft position.
Fifth rounder starter Jacob Stevens is the best and only deep cut for the Mets from this class. He looks to have some back-end rotation potential. Like Sprengel and Dunn he made his major league debut this past season, assembling -0.3 WAR in 41 IP. Also like his fellow pitcher picks he was inexplicably tossed into Triple-A to begin his professional career, which likely stunted his development.
Grade: D: The Mets managed to pick three major leaguers in 2018 so the class can't be considered an F, but it's about the next closest thing. None of these players look like they will ever contribute anything too meaningful for the Mets. Sprengel and Stevens look to have ceilings as JAGs and Dunn is an Oriole. Flinging them and other notable pitcher picks into AAA to start their careers is also especially egregious. One has to imagine they may have looked better by now if they had been allowed to develop properly.
Oakland Athletics:
First Round: (3) Nick Allen—SS
First Round: (8) Will Banfield—C (Compensation for not signing Alex Faedo)
Second Round: (3) Francisco DeJesus—1B
Second Round: (8) Blake Hunt—C (Compensation for not signing Jacob Pearson)
Third Round: (3) Cade Pollard—1B
Best Player: Francisco DeJesus
Best Deep Cut: Grant Cox (14)
Total ML WAR: 14.7
Review: Nick Allen's bat hasn't come around yet, but his speed and defense will play in the majors and he's still improving. Still, for a player selected third overall, Allen will need to produce more than a second-division starter. This is especially the case with so many other shortstops looking excellent. Will Banfield is likewise still improving and can be a major league backup, but that's not a great return for a number-eight pick. Other catchers lower in the draft have out-produced Banfield, as has Alex Faedo, the player Oakland failed to sign the year earlier.
Francisco DeJesus developed into a superstar. He's an MVP candidate who has the third most WAR to date of anyone in the class. It's likely he finishes with the second most WAR of the class when his career wraps up. For a second-rounder, that's a hell of a find.
Blake Hunt could be a low-end starter or a high-end backup. That's not terrible for a second-round pick, but Brendan Tinsman was taken a few spots later. The player they didn't sign the year prior has turned into a strong starting Center Fielder that Oakland could have had instead.
Cade Pollard hasn't made the majors yet. He's hit in the low minors and may be a second-division starter as a First Baseman, but while the glove is good, the bat is underwhelming for the position. Fourth rounder Jayson Gonzalez has the ability to play Third Base and a bit more patience than Pollard, making his prospects a little brighter.
The rest of the top-10 picks that were signed look like Triple-A starters and there's little in the low minors.
Grade: C+: The Allen pick is probably a D, considering how many good shortstops were taken later in the draft. How does Allen compare to Brice Turang for example? Likewise, the Banfield pick also looks like a D, with the Hunt selection even worse. DeJesus makes up for some of those sins, but not all. Gonzalez also was a nice selection. Still, the ability to turn Alex Faedo and Jacob Pearson into backup catchers is a heavy anchor to DeJesus' brilliance.
Philadelphia Phillies:
First Round: (1) Seth Beer—RF
Second Round: (6) Tyler Freeman—SS—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (6) Tanner Burns—P
Best Player: Seth Beer
Best Deep Cut: Dominic DiCaprio (13)
Total ML WAR: 26.2
Review: Seth Beer was an obvious first overall pick and the Phillies didn't do anything cute. They selected Beer, made sure to focus development around him, and watched him turn into a player with a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. Beer may go down as the best player in PBA history when it's all said and done.
Tyler Freeman looks like a second-division starter or backup middle infielder. The Phillies used their compensation pick the next season on a player with a similar profile. Tanner Burns looks like a relief arm. He'll be 25 next year, and it'll be a big season for him in determining whether he has a major league path or not. He hasn't had a positive go of it in Double-A Reading.
Mid-round picks Cody Deason, Ryan Mota, Matthew Comerford, and Colton Eastman all look like Triple-A pitchers who may be able to have a shot as a swingman and last arm in the pen. That amount of depth is a positive.
Ninth rounder Tim Susnara has already had some experience in the majors, performing well as a backup in 2022. He's got enough to stick as a backup, which is a win for a ninth-rounder.
Grade: A: Philadelphia made sure to select the obvious candidate and ended up with a superstar. The Beer selection has helped catapult the team into the upper echelon of baseball teams. Philadelphia didn't hurt themselves too badly by not signing Freeman, and their stockpile of Triple-A caliber arms may result in one or two popping and working out.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
First Round: (28) Jeremiah Jackson—SS—UNSIGNED
Second Round: (14) Gunner Hoglund—P (Compensation for not signing Calvin Mitchell)
Second Round: (32) Hugh Fisher—P
Third Round: (32) Daniel Sprinkle—P
Best Player: Daniel Sprinkle
Best Deep Cut: (18) Korby Batesole
Total ML WAR: 0
Review: Jackson looks like a really interesting utility player that Pittsburgh missed out on, though he became a second round pick the next year. Calvin Mitchell turned into a starting Left Fielder, while Gunner Hoglund has finally escaped the low minors and looks like either a Triple-A Starter or a Triple-A First Baseman.
Hugh Fisher looks like he may be able to stick at the back of a rotation, but he was dreadful in Triple-A in 2023 as a reliever. Sprinkle has already succeeded in Indianapolis and produced a 0.0 WAR with 13 strikeouts in 11.1 Major League innings. Sixth rounder Davis Vainer may also stick at the back of a rotation, but went 3-11 with a 6.20 ERA in Triple-A last year.
Most of the Pirates middle and later picks are still playing baseball, so there's the chance one of them pops. Most of them are low-minors fodder, with Korby Batesole's good defense at Second Base his one major league skill.
Grade: F: The Pirates got virtually no sure major leaguers, let talent go without signing it, and passed up on talent in previous drafts to get the opportunity to draft inferior players. All-in-all, a bleak draft.
San Diego Padres:
First Round: (6) Royce Lewis—SS
Second Round: (2) M.J. Melendez—C
Third Round: (2) Cole McKay—P
Best Player: Royce Lewis
Best Deep Cut: (27) Zach Reid
Total ML WAR: -0.3
Review: Royce Lewis has been a Top 10 prospect every year of his career and should be a star shortstop. It took him awhile to develop and he did not have a good first 41 games in the majors. Xavier Edwards and Brice Turang are his comp set and Turang is younger, made the majors earlier, and has produced at a high level. There's huge potential with Lewis, but also pressure based on the other players San Diego could have had.
M.J. Melendez has developed slowly, but still could be a starting catcher in the majors, which is a nice find. Francisco DeJesus, taken one spot after him, would have been a nicer find.
Cole McKay has topped out as a Triple-A starter, and at 26 years old, it's hard to see him getting over the final hill and becoming a major leaguer. Likewise, fourth round First Baseman K.J. Harrison and eight round pitcher Jonathan Hughes appear to be headed for a ceiling of Triple-A regulars.
The 2018 draft as a whole doesn't appear to be one with a lot of talent after the first four rounds or so. San Diego getting sixth rounder Angel Tiburcio appears to be a nice grab with that backdrop. The three-pitch pitcher has good control and fields his position exceptionally, elements that may allow his straight fastball and propensity to hang changeups to play up.
Grade: C+: The Lewis selection looks like a B+ pick, and it's possible Melendez does something in the majors as well. The fact that other shortstops in the first and second round have already had stellar starts to their career keeps the Lewis pick out of the A range, though with a whole career ahead of him, he can turn that around in a major way. Not picking DeJesus drops the grade a bit too. San Diego didn't get much outside of those two players despite picking high in each round, preventing added value to the early picks.
San Francisco Giants:
First Round: (35) Shane Benes—2B
Second Round: (38) David Bedgood—SS
Third Round: (38) Ford Proctor—2B
Best Player: Shane Benes
Best Deep Cut: Toby Dunlap (11)
Total ML WAR: 13.3
Review: Even if Benes performs more like his 2023 3.4 WAR campaign than his 6.7 WAR 2022, Benes is still a first-division middle infielder who has already produced 13.3 WAR in his career. Only Seth Beer has more WAR from the draft class than Benes, and Beer was the first overall pick. Benes was picked 34 spots later.
David Bedgood was a sleepy pick, but Proctor looks like a pretty good backup infielder who can hit just enough to start in a pinch.
Fifth rounder David Spagnuolo had an awful season last year, but scouts think he has enough talent to be a 12th or 13th member of a pitching staff, perhaps as a starter. Seventh round pick Ryan Feltner also looks like a back-end starting pitcher or a decent reliever, while 11th rounder Toby Dunlap was on a path to the majors until injuries derailed his last two seasons.
Sixth round selection Brady Smith hasn't played much in the minors, but scouts think he has enough defensive tools and gap power to be a backup catcher in a pinch.
Grade: A+: Getting a star in Seth Benes way back with the 35th pick is excellent work. The Giants added to the selection with a number of pitching prospects that may pay dividends, and a middle infielder who has already had success as a quality backup. Considering the low quality of the draft pool, then the caliber of Benes combined with the quantity of options can only be graded with an A+.
Seattle Mariners:
First Round: (19) Jeremiah Estrada—P
Second Round: (15) Brendan Tinsman—C
Third Round: (13) Joseph Mercado—P—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (20) Garrett Wolforth—C (Compensation for not signing Garrett Cave)
Best Player: Brendan Tinsman
Best Deep Cut: Nick Maton (12)
Total ML WAR: 2.4
Review: Estrada is a good looking pitching prospects who had a good season as a swingman in San Francisco last year. He'll pitch next year as a 25-year-old and should be a starting pitcher with the Giants. Brendan Tinsman is still developing slowly as critics have panned his work ethic. Nevertheless, he'll spend next year as a 24-year-old and has fantastic two-way ability as a Catcher.
Joseph Mercado wasn't signed and was drafted the next year in the 25th round by Boston. Their other third rounder, Garrett Wolforth, is a terrific defensive catcher and would likely be a major league backup if not for the fact that he's currently playing in Japan. He was the league's #13 prospect last year and looks like a better prospect than Garrett Cave.
Fifth rounder Grant Wilhelm had an ERA of 10.55 in Triple-A this season, though he had major issues with management on how he was used and the makeup of the Tacoma Rainiers. Scouts love the junkball nature of his arsenal, but it may take a move out of Seattle to hone it.
In the 12th round, Seattle selected Nick Maton, a player who scouts believe could be a second-division starter. However, after being traded to Kansas City in the Jorge de la Rosa/Jhoulys Chacin trade, he was subsequently released and went to play in Japan.
Grade: A: It's a pretty deep draft for Seattle. With their first pick they got a good looking pitcher in a draft not known for pitching. With their second pick, they got a good looking catcher after most catchers selected ahead of them failed. They quickly realized their error with Joseph Mercado and moved on. Some of their mid-round picks look like decent enough players, even if the talent moved overseas or was mismanaged. In a pretty weak draft, it's a pretty good body of work.
St. Louis Cardinals:
First Round: (11) Kumar Rocker—P
First Round: (21) Nick Pratto—1B (Compensation for not signing Nick Pratto)
Second Round: (16) Jordan Groshans—SS
Second Round: (21) Tanner Houck—P (Compensation for not signing M.J. Melendez)
Third Round: (14) Austin Rubick—P
Third Round: (21) Mitch Stallings—P (Compensation for not signing Philip Clarke)
Best Player: Nick Pratto
Best Deep Cut: Jordan Bonk (12)
Total ML WAR: 9.5
Review: Kumar's stuff didn't play well in his first half-season in the PBA, but he has a fantastic curveball and good stamina. At worst he's a setup man, but there may be a good starter there and as he'll only be entering his age 24-season, the Cardinals will have some room to find out.
The Cardinals got a compensation pick for not signing Nick Pratto in 2017 and used it to draft—Nick Pratto. Perhaps the Cardinals saved some money in only having to give him a $2.8 million signing bonus. Pratto figured to be a bit of an atypical First Baseman as well as he did not have any power when he was first drafted in 2017 and didn't project to be a major slugger. Despite his 16 home runs in St. Louis in 2022 being a career high for any year, Pratto's hit tool and batting eye make him an excellent at bat, as he can hit over .300 with a .400 OBP any year. He also uses the whole field, including the lines, allowing him to bash doubles off the wall, lasers to the warning track, and hooks and slices inside the foul lines. Pratto's already led the league in doubles once, and he's only 25.
Jordan Groshans is a great glove on the left side of the infield and has a good enough bat to play Third Base if he moves off Shortstop. Now on Pittsburgh, he'll play his age-24 season next year and he's still growing into his bat. There's a potential for a starting-caliber player though.
Tanner Houck did not develop and the pick would have been better served as M.J. Melendez as Melendez has the potential to be a major league player. Likewise, Austin Rubick is likely not a player who can make the upper reaches of a system. Mitch Stallings completes the trifecta as a bust of a pitcher. He's not even playing baseball anymore.
St. Louis did draft an arm in the seventh round who has some promise. Adam Wolf has exceptional deception with his changeup and is a candidate to pitch in the majors as a result. Finally, Jordan Bonk has a solid enough bat to cut it as a backup middle infielder who can stick at Shortstop. He's currently the #15 prospect in Japan entering his age-25 season.
Grade: B-: The jury is still out on Rocker, but he's so young that he'll have time to make his case. So few pitchers in the draft ended up working out so he doesn't have a lot of talented comps held against him. Pratto was the right pick in 2017 and the right pick in 2018 and looks like a centerpiece for years. Groshans was selected after most of the elite middle infielders were taken, which helps his case. He can also play third base which helps his case. The pitchers after Houck didn't amount to anything. It's a little disappointing to have the volume of early picks the Cardinals had and turn it into so few players though. Even Pratto is offset a bit by the presence of Francisco DeJesus early in the Second Round. Also, Pratto's selection essentially means the Cardinals threw away a pick in 2017. Context brings his selection down, and Melendez being better than Houck brings that selection way down. There's a lot of volatility in this draft that will be up to Rocker and Groshans to determine.
Tampa Bay Rays:
First Round: (5) Wyatt Cross (Compensation for not signing Royce Lewis)
First Round: (23) Dan Cabrera—LF
Second Round: (5) Elih Marrero—C (Compensation for not signing Tanner Houck)
Second Round: (24) Justin Bellinger—1B
Third Round: (5) Chandler Newman—P (Compensation for not signing Adam Kerner)
Third Round: (23) Brady Singer—P
Best Player: Dan Cabrera
Best Deep Cut: John Grimsley (11)
Total ML WAR: 2.2 WAR
Review: Wyatt Cross was selected in a spot that could have been Royce Lewis. That move is already a downgrade. Lewis was selected a spot after Cross and has the brighter future as well. Cross will play next season as a 27-year-old next year, and doesn't appear to have the bat to start full time. He could be a bad-bat, all-glove player that returns value, but you don't need to pick that guy fifth overall.
Tampa Bay bet on Dan Cabrera's work ethic, and it paid off for the Giants. Cabrera gets the most out of limited physical tools, and has become someone with a decent eye and a decent bat. However, Jared Kelenic was popped two spots behind him. Elih Marrero has a very similar profile to Wyatt Cross, but as a second round pick, that has more value. Tanner Houck never put things together, so punting on him to get Marrero looks prudent. Chandler Newman could be a back-end starter, while Adam Kerner will never make the majors.
Justin Bellinger is a Quad-A First Baseman, Brady Singer is a free agent without a path to the majors, and fourth rounder Trevor Horn is a Quad-A starting pitcher, so those picks won't return value. The one thing about the later part of Tampa Bay's draft though, is that many of the guys are still active, so there's always the possibility of a late-career development spike churning out some value.
Grade: D+: The Cross pick doesn't look good in hindsight, and there aren't enough inspired selections in the top 10 to make up for it. Newman and Marrero could be okay, but only okay, and while Dan Cabrera is alright, Jered Kelenic has become a star. The saving graces are that Cross and Cabrera have at least become major leaguers and that there are a lot of active players from later in the draft still kicking.
Texas Rangers:
First Round: Forfeited for signing Carlos Santana
Second Round: (28) Mikey Polansky—1B
Third Round: (28) James Marinan—P
Best Player: Mikey Polansky
Best Deep Cut: (24) Daniel Millwee
Total ML WAR: -1.1
Review: For starters, Carlos Santana gave Texas 5.1 WAR across two seasons with the Rangers winning 100 and 89 games those two years. Santana only produced for two years and made roughly $42 million, way more than the cost control teams get from drafted players. On the other hand, Santana helped produce for a terrific team in the middle of its contention cycle and we don't have too much insight into the value of late first round picks.
Polansky looks like a second division starting third baseman. Originally a 10th round pick of the Angels, he's bounced around in trades and had a rough go of it with the Braves in his rookie year last year. Still, while there isn't an impact skill, he's a major league caliber hitter with major league caliber power, a major league approach and major league defense. He can't hit lefties, but can be a part of a platoon.
James Marinian never put it together and retired after a failed stint in Japan in 2020. Fifth rounder Jared Jackson was traded in the Carlos Correa deal and may have been pushed to the minors too early by Houston. Only 23, he's allowed 29 home runs in 152 innings as his fringy repertoire has been hit hard. There's a back-end starter if he can develop his changeup, but he may be suffering whiplash from all the homers. Glenn Otto has two good pitches, which puts him at the cusp of the bigs. He's hasn't been able to throw strikes though, making him more than likely to top out at Triple-A.
Only one player drafted after the 9th round, Daniel Millwee, is playing organized baseball.
Grade: B: Let's give the Santana signing a C+ as providing somewhat neutral value comparing what Texas would have gotten with an expected late first rounder versus Santana's contributions to a strong Texas team. Polansky is an A for showing promise as a late-second rounder in a bad draft with very few Third Basemen drafted. Texas didn't do too badly with some of their mid-round picks, though they won't get much of anything from late picks with so many of them out of baseball.
Toronto Blue Jays:
First Round: (30) Taylor Walls—SS
Second Round: (33) Connor Scott—RF
Third Round: (33) Omar Baldo—C
Best Player: Taylor Walls
Best Deep Cut: Trey Dawson (11)
Total ML WAR: 10.1
Review: In two-plus years in the bigs Taylor Walls has become one of the better young middle infielders in the American League, having posted 4 WAR in his first full season with Toronto, and following that up with an excellent 5.6 WAR season which could have been even better if not for a nagging back injury in the final months of the season. OSA says that Taylor Walls is the Sixth best Shorstop in the PBA at the moment, and could be even better at Second Base. In fact, Walls' flexibility is a boon to a Toronto team that rolls out very fluid lineups. Toronto has one of the best young infields in the game, and Walls has been a major part of that.
Connor Scott has had a strange career thus far. After setting Triple-A on fire in 2022 he was called up to the majors at the end of the year. Serving as an injury replacement in the playoffs, he won the ALCS MVP award for the Blue Jays. He played 20 games total in the PBA, 10 in the regular season, 10 in the postseason, and won an ALCS MVP—only to follow that up with a middling 2023 in Triple-A.. Looking at the rest of his performance in the minors it seems like that 2022 run was more a fluke than anything else. He's a quad-A player at best.
Baldo is a very good defensive catcher whose bat has not been up to par in any league that he has played in as a pro. This is simply who he is.
Fourth round pick Justin Hagenman was out of baseball within three seasons and fifth rounder Tylor Fischer has struggled in Triple-A. Sixth rounder Cadyn Grenier's a tough player, but has never developed the range at Shortstop to give him a real major league future.
Grade: B+: When you find a 4+ WAR a year player at the back end of the first round it is hard to give a bad overall grade, but there is no one—literally—in this draft after Walls who looks like they can be major contributors to a major league ballclub.
Washington Nationals:
First Round: (26) Ryder Green—P—UNSIGNED
Second Round: (27) Nick O'Day—LF
Second Round: (29) Tim Borden—2B (Compensation for not signing Drew Waters)
Third Round: (25) Hunter Watson—3B
Third Round: (29) Kody Clemens—SS—UNSIGNED
Best Player: Tim Borden
Best Deep Cut: Steven Foster (27)
Total ML WAR: 0.3
Review: Green isn't developing as quickly as desired, but still has the potential to be starter in the PBA with a power bat. The fact that he wasn't signed hurts, as does the fact that Francisco DeJesus was picked later on.
Nick O'Day looks like he can be a second-division outfielder in the PBA, though he didn't have a great showing in Triple-A last year. He'll play next year as a 24-year-old so he still has time for further development. Tim Borden found his way to Oakland in the Sean Doolittle trade and looks like a keeper. He's also still young, only 24, but he hit well across two levels and has a terrific glove. He's another strong middle infielder taken in a draft filled with them. Considering Drew Waters hasn't escaped rookie ball, the pick has worked out fantastically.
Hunter Watson looks like a good pick as a second-division third baseman. There's no patience there, but Watson has showed power and a plus glove. In a weak draft for Third Baseman, that's a win. Kody Clemens was also drafted and not signed. While labeled a Shortstop, there was no chance he'd ever play the position and was moved to Third Base quickly. He has a shot to be a backup in the majors. The next year, Washington took a guy who is already out of baseman, so Clemons would have better to hold on to.
The Nationals didn't sign their picks in rounds four or five, and their sixth and seventh round picks are already out of baseball. Marrick Crouse was taken in the eighth round and was essentially a replacement-level relief arm in 2022. He had a strong 2019 as a starter and may be a serviceable back-end starter in the PBA. Ninth-rounder Jeff Fasching is likely only a Triple-A reliever at this point. The only other player picked still playing baseball is 27th rounder Steven Foster, a High-A First Baseman with no potential to play above that level.
Grade: C: Washington found some hits with some extra picks in early rounds and a keen eye in grabbing Marrick Crouse in the eighth round. Whiffing on Greene is a huge miss though, and cancels out some of the good finds. On one hand, Washington found a good amount of serviceable major leaguers, but on the other hand, they could have had Francisco DeJesus.
Most WAR
Philadelphia Phillies 26.9
Chicago White Sox 16.5
Oakland Athletics 14.7
San Francisco Giants 14.5
Atlanta Braves 10.4
Toronto Blue Jays 10.1
St. Louis Cardinals 9.5
Detroit Tigers 7.3
New York Yankees 7
Colorado Rockies 4.6
Baltimore Orioles 3.9
Kansas City Royals 2.6
Seattle Mariners 2.4
Tampa Bay Rays 2.2
Milwaukee Brewers 2.1
Miami Marlins 1.7
Los Angeles Angels 1.7
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.6
Minnesota Twins 1.2
Cincinnati Reds 1
Chicago Cubs 0.7
New York Mets 0.7
Houston Astros 0.3
Washington Nationals 0.3
Pittsburgh Pirates 0
Boston Red Sox -0.1
San Diego Padres -0.3
Los Angeles Dodgers -0.4
Texas Rangers -1.1
Arizona Diamondbacks
First Round: (10) Jake Higginbotham—P
Second Round: (4) Thomas Burbank—P—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (4) Cole Wilcox—P—UNSIGNED
Best Player: Jake Higginbotham
Best Deep Cut: (12) Josh Rolette
Total ML WAR: 1.3
Review: After making a detour through the Atlanta organization following a 2019 trade, Jake Higginbotham eventually found his way back home to Arizona where he has continued his fairly pedestrian pitching career. While posting respectable minor league numbers, he hasn’t fared particularly well in the majors, logging just 123 IP over three seasons, mostly in relief, with a career 4.78 FIP and 0.71 WAR. He’s 28 now, and while it’s unlikely he’ll ever become an impact player, he still sports some tantalizing pitching ratings and could potentially help a team as a LOOGY or middle-inning reliever.
Arizona failed to sign it’s second through fourth round draft picks in 2018, and none of the team’s other 2018 picks have contributed at the major-league level except eighth rounder Clay Moffitt. Following a series of trades, Moffitt has put up a combined 0.55 career WAR for the Braves and Padres. He spent 2023 in San Diego’s rotation, logging 121 IP with an unsightly 5.93 ERA and 67 ERA+ . Like Higginbotham, his pitching ratings are above average and may keep him in the majors despite his underwhelming performance.
Grade: C-: Arizona’s 2018 draft produced two league-average pitchers, but that’s about it. None of their other picks have made it to the major leagues, nor are any of them expected to do so at this point. Moreover, their second and third round picks, Burbank and Wilcox, were both drafted the following year by Pittsburgh and are currently pitching on the Pirates major league squad. Burbank in particular looks like he has a decent career ahead of him as a league-average starter.
Atlanta Braves
First Round: (12) Jacob Pearson—CF
Second Round: (10) Devin Ortiz—P
Third Round: (9) Jose Ciccarello—SS
Best Player: Jacob Pearson
Best Deep Cut: Chase Smartt (14)
Total ML WAR: 10.4
Review: Pearson's taken a winding path, being drafted twice, traded once, and selected in the Rule-V draft, but he's a first-division starter for Detroit which is what you want your first round picks to become. Similarly, Devin Ortiz looks like a mid-rotation arm and had a solid rookie season as a 24-year-old. Neither of them look like superstars, but they're strong doubles.
The Braves also hit with fifth rounder Brock Lundquist, a balanced bat who hit .294 for Arizona this season with adequate defense. Getting a nearly 2-WAR player in the fifth round isn't something that happens often.
Jose Ciccarello never developed the bat to go with the glove and is a Free Agent currently, making that a missed pick. Fourth-rounder Nolan Kingham is a last-man in the bullpen prospect at best, and sixth rounder Jarrett Montgomery is out of baseball.
Grade: B+: The early picks are very solid, though the lack of depth brings the grade down a smidge. Atlanta has amassed the fifth most WAR of the draft so far, and should continue to grow that with Pearson and Ortiz being young. There were some picks Atlanta could have taken instead, such as Ryan Johnson or Francisco DeJesus, that also bring the grade down slightly.
Baltimore Orioles
First Round: (18) Levi Kelly—P
First Round: (24) Jack Carey—P—Compensation for not signing Nick Allen
Second Round: (20) Mike Siani—LF
Third Round: (17) Hunter Bowling—P
Best Player: Mike Siani
Best Deep Cut: Dillon Paulson (16)
Total ML WAR: 3.9
Review: Overall, 2018 was a solid draft for Baltimore. The team drafted at least five PBA players. In the first round the O’s took a pair of starting pitching prospects in Levi Kelly and Jack Carey. Of the two, Carey looks to have a more promising future. He already debuted in 2023 and profiles as a mid-rotation starter with movement issues holding him back from being a truly dependable number two.
Kelly has struggled to develop his control and was recently waived by the O’s, ending up in the White Sox organization. There is still enough upside there for a reliever role if the control can improve some.
Baltimore’s best player from this draft so far came from the 2nd round. Outfielder Mike Siani has 3 WAR in 349 career PBA games. He is coming off a 2023 campaign that saw him put up a solid 2.5 WAR over a full season. Siani is a bit of an odd player. He doesn’t truly have the glove for CF, or the bat for a corner spot. However his speed and contact skills make him a solid player, and at only age 24 there is room to improve.
Baltimore’s third rounder is the only early pick from this class that won’t make the majors. Hunter Bowling should start looking into hunting and bowling. At almost 27 years old in A+ ball his baseball future does not look too good. He’s a curious pick as it appears OSA never liked him to begin with.
The best deep cut for Baltimore was 16th rounder Dillon Paulson. Paulson was waived in 2022 despite not having service time or being on the Orioles’ 40 man roster. He was claimed by Milwaukee and put together a few big years at AA. Paulson has decent potential and should make the Brewers roster at some point this season as a first baseman. He has the potential to be a middle of the road type 1B. His best attribute may be his plus glove for the position. Another notable pick after the early rounds was fourth rounder Kevin Dowdell. Dowdell can be a backup outfielder and made his debut last season.
Grade: B+: This draft emphasized quantity over quality for the Orioles. Five PBA players is a lot for one draft class but none of those players look to have true star potential. If the Levi Kelly pick had worked out better this draft would definitely go down as an A.
Boston Red Sox
First Round: (20) Tristan Lutz—RF—UNSIGNED
Second Round: (22) Mitch Hickey—P—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (18) Donny Sellers—P—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (27) Nick Donnelly—1B—Compensation for not signing Tyler Freeman—UNSIGNED
Best Player: (12) Michael McAdoo Jr.
Best Deep Cut: (12) Michael McAdoo Jr.
Total ML WAR: -0.1
Review: Boston failed to sign any of its top five draft picks in 2018. Of their remaining draftees that year, all but a small handful are either retired or playing in independent leagues. The only player to have made a major league roster so far is Michael McAdoo Jr., a forgettable right fielder who debuted last season for the Red Sox at 26, putting up a line of .192/.218/.365 in 55 plate appearances. He has a decent glove and might stick as a fourth outfielder, but he’s never hit well even in the low minors and doesn’t appear to have much potential at this point. While failing to sign your top draft picks usually hurts an organization, that really wasn’t the case for Boston in 2018. Lutz and Donnelly are still toiling away in the low minors with unremarkable careers, and Hickey and Sellers have already retired.
Grade: D-: Boston’s 2018 draft hasn’t produced a single major-league quality player. McAdoo, the only guy who will likely ever play at the major league level, has a negative career major league WAR and little chance of adding any real value to the Red Sox, either directly or via a trade. The most positive aspect of the draft was that Boston didn’t waste any money on their top draft picks, all of whom have either washed out or are in the process of doing so for other teams.
Chicago White Sox
First Round: (2) Alex Faedo—P
Second Round: (11) Ryan Johnson—LF
Third Round: (10) Traded to Kansas City for Eric Hosmer. Pick turned into Jordan Pearce
Best Player: Ryan Johnson
Best Deep Cut: Cal Raleigh (11)
Total ML WAR: 16.5
Review: Alex Faedo was assumed to be the next great Chicago ace, but he never developed his changeup, grew frustrated in his inability to master the pitch, stopped throwing it, and as a result was destined for the bullpen. Though he's had some rocky moments in big situations, Faedo at least looks like he has elite closer potential. Still, you want more than a relief arm with the second overall pick.
Ryan Johnson was traded to Arizona in a deal for Jimmie Sherfy and has become a solid second-division starter with good pop and some strong defense. He has more WAR than anyone picked after him, though there are some outfielders behind him with good upside.
While Eric Hosmer was awful during Chicago's 2018 title run, he was a serviceable regular season first baseman for them. Pearce doesn't look like anything more than a Triple-A pitcher, so that deal worked out.
None of Chicago's picks in the rest of the top 10 look like they'll work out and most have retired. Cal Raleigh, grabbed in the 11th round, has been a revelation though. He has 4.44 career WAR and he's one of only two players popped after the sixth round with more than 0.2 WAR. In fact, by WAR, he's been the ninth best player in the draft as a slugging-oriented catcher.
In fact, Chicago has found more quality after the 10th round than pretty much every other team. Jonathan India, selected in the 15th round, hasn't succeeded in a few cups of coffee in the majors, but looks like a useful backup who can play Second Base, Third Base, and in a pinch, Shortstop. He'll likely never be a starter and is going to be 27 next season, but that's a win for a 15th rounder.
Most impressive is 30th round pick Kenny Saenz. Drafted with the 902nd pick, Saenz has pitched in nine PBA games and hasn't allowed a run. Last year, he put up 2.9 WAR in the International League with 184 strikeouts in 153.2 innings. Considering where Saenz was picked, and combine it with the total lack of depth of the class, and the fact that Saenz can help contribute to a PBA roster is nothing short of miraculous.
Grade: B: The Faedo pick doesn't look great in hindsight, but most of the other early first round picks after him are just getting their careers started. There's a lot of variance in how Faedo will grade when we take another look back in five seasons. Johnson was a solid, unspectacular pick, and the decision to trade for Hosmer also looks like a B trade in hindsight. Raleigh was a great selection, and India and Saenz make up for the fact that Chicago won't get anything out of their picks in rounds 4-10.
Chicago Cubs:
First Round: (29) Kendall Simmons—SS
First Round: (31) Kristopher Armstrong—P—Compensation for not signing Blake Hunt
Second Round: (31) Ben Jordan—P—Compensation for not signing David Banuelos—UNSIGNED
Second Round: (34) Luis Gonzalez—LF
Third Round: (31) Mitchell Kilkenny—P—Compensation for not signing Michael Mercado—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (34) Ricky Tyler Thomas—P—UNSIGNED
Best Player: Kristopher Armstrong
Best Deep Cut: N/A, all out of baseball
Total ML WAR: 0.7
Review: Kendall Simmons is still young and will spend the majority of next year as a 24-year-old. He's a terrific defender and runner, but he has a bat best suited to High-A. Kristopher Armstrong was taken two picks after and has big stuff and perhaps enough of a changeup to have him stick as a starting pitcher. Armstrong is still young and will spend next year as a 24-year-old. The decision to not sign Hunt in 2017, who may be a starting Catcher, in order to sign Armstrong is likely a neutral one.
The Cubs didn't sign David Banuelos in 2017, got a pick for it, and used it to not sign Ben Jordan, who is currently out of baseball. They also failed to sign Michael Mercado in 2017, who threw a no-hitter last year, and got a 2018 pick for it. They used that pick on Mitchell Kilkenny and didn't sign him.
In fact, the Cubs had extra picks in 2018 yet only signed 23 players. Partly a result of only having 23 signees, only four players are currently still playing baseball with second rounder Luis Gonzalez and sixth rounder Jack Conlon joining Simmons and Armstrong.
Gonzalez has a pretty good ability to put bat-to-ball, allowing him to be slightly better than replacement level as a major leaguer as he doesn't have much power, speed, or defensive skills. Conlon suffered three labrum tears that sapped his upside as a pitcher.
Grade: F: They missed on their first pick, got nothing on their later picks, and punted on signing 2017 draft picks to select worse players in 2018. Armstrong's potential as a pitcher in a pitching-weak draft may rescue the draft, but he hasn't pitched above Double-A yet. Gonzalez is a Quad-A player. That's not enough of a return considering the sheer number of picks they had available.
Cincinnati Reds
First Round: (9) Xavier Edwards—SS
Second Round: (1) Jimmy Herron—RF
Third Round: (1) Justin Hooper—P
Best Player: Xavier Edwards
Best Deep Cut: (11) Mak Sexton
Total ML WAR: 1.0
Review: Xavier Edwards looks like a player who can be a first-division shortstop for a long time. He's still growing into his body and may never hit for power, but he has great athleticism that makes baseball look easy. As someone picked ahead of Brice Turang, he'll be judged a bit harshly, but the fact that he played the 2023 season at the same age as Turang and had a successful one allows the pick to stand up a little better.
Jimmy Herron could be a second-division starting Right Fielder, but was selected two spots ahead of first-division superstar Francisco DeJesus. Justin Hooper could be a back-end starter in the majors in a year, though he looks mostly like a replacement-player-caliber arm.
Fourth-rounder Tim Elko was released after not hitting too much in the lower minors and has popped up in the Japanese minors where he looks like a possible starter in the Nippon League if he can ever tap into his power. Catcher Jackson Leuck hit all over the low-minors, wasn't promoted, and retired, squandering an opportunity. Mak Sexton could be a backup catcher with a few breaks as he's young and has excellent defensive chops.
Virtually every arm selected from the fourth round on has retired from baseball. In fact, 22 of the 29 players Cincinnati drafted and signed have retired from professional baseball, so there won't be any hidden jewels coming from late round picks.
Grade: B: The Edwards pick looks like a good one, and the first four picks all look like decent selections relative to expected outcomes. None of the four picks look like they provide any extra value over expected return though, and so many of the mid-round and late-round picks wont supply any value either. Still, a few singles will produce a run, and this draft produced a better grade than C.
Cleveland Indians
First Round: Forfeited as a result of signing J.D. Martinez
Supplemental Round: (2) Chase Goldwater—Gained as a result of not resigning Carlos Santana
Second Round: (30) Garret Cave—P
Third Round: (30) Michael Curry—C
Best Player: Michael Curry
Best Deep Cut: (12) Andrew Sharpe
Total ML WAR: 0
Review: This Cleveland draft may be one of the weirdest in PBA history. Cleveland forfeited their first rounder to sign J.D. Martinez to a massive contract. Martinez put up only 2 WAR in 601 games in Cleveland. He fell off a cliff after 2020 and is now an albatross contract on the Mets payroll following a complicated trade between the Mets and Indians to exchange dead weight. Martinez would be remembered in Cleveland as a total waste of money if not for his 2020 postseason where he put up 0.9 WAR in 15 games, essentially half the value he ever provided to the team in the regular season. Martinez hit for a 1.128 OPS and the Indians won the World Series. Flags fly forever though so while the process behind his signing looks poor, the results worked out.
Cleveland obtained a supplemental pick in this class as compensation for the loss of 1B Carlos Santana. The pick was used to select 1B Chase Goldwater. Goldwater is currently in High-A in the Rays organization and doesn't look like the will ever make the majors. On draft day he had only 0.5 star OSA potential so this looks like a particularly bad pick that early in the draft.
In the second round Cleveland took SP Garret Cave. Cave blew out his arm shortly after being signed. It also looks like he will never make the major leagues. He is currently in Triple-A with the Rays as a mediocre RP.
In the third round Cleveland selected C Michael Curry but they may as well have not drafted anyone at all. Curry was signed by the Indians and then released before the period for signing draftees expired. Curry spend less than a month total in the Cleveland organization. Two days after he was released he signed a contract with the Saitama Seibu Lions of the NPB and was immediately a top 15 prospect in the league. Curry made the Lions roster in 2023 and was an All Star. OSA thinks he definitely has PBA talent so this whole series of events looks rough for the Indians. Immediately releasing a third round draft prospect never makes sense, and it's even worse when they turn into a solid player for another team. The Indians would have been better off if they had never signed him at all, because then they would have at least received a compensation pick. Cleveland successfully identified a useful player but then botched adding him to their organization.
There are no real deep cuts in this draft class for Cleveland. None of their other picks made the PBA or look like they will in the future.
Grade: F: Martinez helped Cleveland to win a championship so they were going to receive a D at first. Releasing Curry and the 0 total WAR from the rest of the class knocks Cleveland down a peg
Colorado Rockies:
First Round: (22) Brandon Boissierre—LF
Second Round: (23) Alec Sanchez—2B
Third Round: (22) Sam McMillan—C
Best Player: (6) Griffin Helms
Best Deep Cut: (12) Blake Jackson
Total ML WAR: 4.6
Review: The soft hitting lefty speedster Brandon Boissierre has panned out as a passable starter in at the PBA level. Boissierre had some very good years in the minors and has been with the big club for two years. He has struggled somewhat at the PBA level, managing just 0.2 WAR in 113 games played this season. I can see the logic of Colorado wanting a high-OBP guy and speedster to ensure that their sluggers aren't only hitting solo shots but he hasn't made the step to become the player that Colorado thought they were getting when they drafted him. He's played a lot of First Base so far in the majors where his bat doesn't play.
Sanchez is another high contact middle infielder in a league, and draft, that has had many of them. Sanchez posted high BABIP numbers at every stop that he has made in the minors but those numbers took a dip when he got a cup of coffee with the Rockies this past year. He has the tools to succeed, and has shown promise in the minors.
McMillan was picked up in the Rule V draft (picked straight out of high-A ball!) by the Orioles almost entirely based off of his defensive ability and beat out veteran Buster Posey for the starting job in the middle of the year. He performed better than expected at the plate as well picking up 12 HR and batting fifth in the lineup. McMillan will likely not bat fifth for much of his career but his defensive ability will overshadow his lack of prowess and consistency at the plate.
Griffin Helms was picked up by Milwaulkee in the Rule V draft this past year and belted 23HR to go with good defense, and a cruddy average, in his rookie season with the Brew Crew.
Grade: B: The Rockies drafted a stable of players who could become solid starters in the years to come. However, the two that have had the most success are no longer on the team (and the Rockies for nothing in return for them) and their skillset is probably better suited for stadiums other than Coors. The Boissierre grade is likely a B- and if the top two draft picks, Boissierre and Sanchez, can show the same game that they had in the minors this draft could be as good as a A- but for now I'd say it is a solid B.
Detroit Tigers:
First Round: (16) Brice Turang—SS
Supplemental Round: (1) Chris Seise—SS—Compensation for not resigning J.D. Martinez
Second Round: (18) Jonathan Stroman—P
Third Round: (16) Mason Englert—P—UNSIGNED
Best Player: Brice Turang
Best Deep Cut: Cody Callaway (22)
Total ML WAR: 7.3 WAR
Review: A lot of Shortstops were taken in the first round of the 2018 draft, and Turang stands up quite well to them. He's younger than even the young prospects Nick Allen, Xavier Edwards, Royce Lewis, and Kendall Simmons. Despite that, he has more WAR than any of them aside from Taylor Walls who is four years Turang's elder. Turang was the 2022 Rookie of the Year and likely still has growing to do. Walls' presence knocks the grade down to an A-, but it's still a pick that worked.
Chris Seise was drafted in a pick awarded to Detroit for not resigning J.D. Martinez. Martinez helped Cleveland win a title, but soon after turned out three straight seasons of sub-WAR play. Seisse hasn't made it above High-A yet, but has two straight years above 4.1 WAR in the Florida State League. He projects to be a speed-and-defense backup infielder.
Jonathan Stroman hasn't pitched well in Triple A and doesn't look like an impact major leaguer. Neither Detroit's third or fourth rounders were signed, which is a bummer with third rounder Mason Englert making it to Triple-A and looking like a decent prospect thus far.
Erick Migueles was drafted in the sixth round. He has terrific plate discipline and a line drive swing that helped him hit .332 in Triple-A Toledo this year. He could make the majors as a second-division starter as a Right Fielder. Virtually nobody taken after Migueles has much of a future, as a number of mid-round and late-round picks have already retired.
Detroit made a good move picking up Turang and got Seise for free after letting J.D. Martinez move on. Migueles was also a hit. However, Detroit gets knocked for getting almost no hope of value from a number of picks.
Grade: B+: Detroit did well in picking Turang and getting a decent prospect for the cost of letting J.D. Martinez. The grade is dragged down a touch by the sheer number of players they picked who have retired from pro baseball. There isn't a lot of depth to the class at all. Still, nailing the first round pick is the most important thing, and Detroit did that.
Houston Astros:
First Round: (32) Michael Mercado—P
Second Round: (35) Randy Abisher—P
Third Round: (35) Tanner Dodson—P
Best Player: Michael Mercado
Best Deep Cut: Nick Dalesandro (12)
Total ML WAR: 0.3
Review: Houston emphasized pitching in a disappointing draft class for pitching. At least they got one good arm in the deal. Mercado had an awful rookie year, going 3-20 and suffering from extreme growing pains. Houston benefited from Mercado's internship though, as he had a promising sophomore season in 2023 and fired a no-hitter. He's still developing his off-speed pitches and looks like he can be a strong mid-rotation arm.
Second rounder Randy Abisher looks like a Triple-A starter or major league reliever, which isn't great for a second-rounder. He hasn't had great on-field success either, plus he's had major problems coming back from a torn labrum, so he's looking like a bust.
Third rounder Tanner Dodson had elbow problems early in his career and back problems all throughout 2023, deciding to retire after being released after a frustrating season. Fourth and fifth rounders Chris Hopkins and Hunter Hart never made it above A-Ball before retiring. Ninth-rounder Tanner Morris has a glove that can play at short and a decent hit tool so he's a guy who could be a backup with luck.
Sixth rounder Drew Lunde has had a fascinating career. He was undrafted in 2017 after college, then was picked by Houston in 2018, before being cut early in 2019. He signed a minor league deal in Korea and had an awful 2019 where he put up -4.0 WAR in their minor league. He followed that up with a tremendous 2020 where had 3.2 WAR with a 0.49 ERA. He had a decent 2021 in the minors and a decent 2022 rookie year. He then turned in a spectacular 2023 where he was the runner up for Best Pitcher, and then tore his flexor tendon after 5.2 scoreless innings in the postseason. He could probably hold his own in the majors, and if he returns, deserves a movie about his career.
Grade: C+: Mercado is a strong pick, but not having much until the sixth round hurts the grade. Houston did get some value with some mid-round picks to give Houston a perfectly average C+ grade.
Kansas City Royals:
First Round: (4) Grant Burton—CF
Second Round: (7) Luken Baker—P
Third Round: (7) Matt Ruppenthal—P
Third Round: (10) Jordan Pearce—P (Pick Acquired from Chicago White Sox for Eric Hosmer)
Best Player: Grant Burton
Best Deep Cut: Cordell Dunn (11)
Total ML WAR: 2.6
Review: The Royals drafted Grant Burton and not much else in 2018. Burton’s talent covers up for the lack of success at other picks, however. Burton looks like one of the better young outfield talents in the league. He had 2.2 WAR in a promising 2023 rookie season. He is a bit of a tweener outfielder. He doesn’t quite have the glove for CF but he can play it at a slightly below average level, which stills works with his bat. Long term he profiles best as a Right Fielder with an elite glove who can create some havoc on the basepaths.
Second round pick Pitcher Luken Baker has a -0.8 career fWAR and 1.4 career bWAR. He was traded by the Royals for 2B Luis Arraez who had 0.5 WAR in his brief stint with the Royals. Baker then ended up on the Braves via the rule V draft and had a 2.80 ERA as a rookie. That season appears to be a mirage now. Baker followed up that rookie season with a -1.0 WAR campaign and has struggled to contain the walks. He isn’t a total bust of a second round pick but he isn’t exactly what you hope for.
The Royals third rounder, SP Matt Ruppenthal, was involved in a big trade to land C Miguel Gomez. He later ended up on waivers and was claimed by San Francisco. He had 0.7 WAR in a mixed role as a starter and reliever for the Giants but then suffered a rough arm injury and was out all of 2023. It remains to be seen if he can get back to that level, but having lost stamina and movement, it may be tough. The Royals other third rounder, Jordan Pearce, is nothing to write home about. He no longer has Major League potential as a ruptured UCL hurt his development.
In terms of deep cuts, it is pretty bleak for KC. 11th round Catcher Cordell Dunn is the only other player who has any sort of potential in this class. He may one day make it as a backup catcher. If he does though, that will be for the White Sox, as he is no longer a member of the Kansas City Royals.
Grade: C+: Grant Burton was a very good pick, but he was a Top Five pick in a draft class. Those are the types of picks that you should be nailing. The rest of the haul is just not very good.
Los Angeles Angels:
First Round: (15) Cole Sands—P
Second Round: (13) John Malcom—1B—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (12) Joe DeMers—P
Best Player: Cole Sands
Best Deep Cut: (11) Doak Dozier
Total ML WAR: 1.7 WAR
Review: Sands struggled as a starter in Triple-A last year and his changeup has never developed. He's looking more and more like a relief pitcher. Already 26, if he does transition to relief, he'll be older and may decline faster. That's not the best return on a first round pick.
John Malcom hit well in Triple-A last year, but will return no value for the Angels as they didn't sign him. Malcom looks like a Quad-A type player, so maybe that wasn't the worst decision, especially with virtually none of the next 30 or so picks returning positive PBA value so far.
Third rounder Joe DeMers looks like a Quad-A reliever, so he isn't much of a get in the third round. Also, only a handful of the Angels' picks in later rounds still play professionally, they weren't great gets either.
Doak Dozier may turn out to be, at worst, the second best player selected by the Angels. He's a terrific defender with a big arm, and he has a decent approach with gap power. He's already 27, but looks like a useful backup outfielder, which is a nice find in the 11th round.
Grade: F: There's nothing there aside from Sands and Dozier, and even looking at that pair's most likely outcomes puts the review further into "there's nothing there" territory. Sands could be a useful relief pitcher, but if all you get from an entire draft class is a possibly useful relief arm, you didn't do a good job.
Los Angeles Dodgers:
First Round: (27) Grayson Rodriguez—P (Compensation for not signing Seth Romero)
First Round: (34) Jonathan Gates—P
Second Round: (26) Landon Leach—P (Compensation for not signing Nathan Handley)
Second Round: (37) Bennett Sousa—P
Third Round: (26) Mason Hickman—P (Compensation for not signing Hugh Fisher)
Third Round: (37) Grant Schnieder—P
Best Player: Grayson Rodriguez
Best Deep Cut: Tyler Anshaw (11)
Total ML WAR: -0.4
Review: The Dodgers didn't sign any of their guys in 2017, allowing the club to carry a number of extra picks in 2018 to draft a pitching armada. Grayson Rodriguez is still only 23, and he's been working his way through the minors for an eternity, but finally arrived in Triple-A this year. A four-pitch pitcher with three plus offerings, he could be a good back-end starter. Stamina is an issue, but the package is a solid one. Jonathan Gates is also only 23, and still far behind in his development. A three-pitch pitcher with good stuff and control, he just made it out of Rookie Ball this season.
Landon Leach's changeup hasn't developed, making him a fringe relief prospect, while Bennett Sousa's control isn't major league quality. Mason Hickman is a decent three-pitch pitcher who finally made it to the majors—in Korea—this past year, where he has potential to stick as an impact arm. Grant Schneider is a four-pitch pitcher on the cusp of the majors, with questions about his control keeping him in Triple-A. Already 27, he doesn't have much time for a standout career.
Fourth rounder Giovanni Digiacomo is yet another young pitcher who has back-end stuff but hasn't developed yet. Tyler Ivey was Los Angeles' fifth-rounder, a fringe back-end starter who had a big year in relief and may factor into the Dodgers' bullpen next season. Sixth rounder Thomas DiGiorgi hasn't developed his control, but seventh-rounder Garrett King looks like a well-balanced fifth starter, who is fully formed.
Tyler Anshaw is the only position player of note. He has a good eye and can hit a few homers and a lot of doubles as a third-baseman. It's not a profile that inspires a ton of success.
Grade: D: There isn't a pitcher the Dodgers' missed on as the pitching class as a whole hasn't had a ton of success in the majors so far. Still, with pitchers being so uninspiring, it's bad luck the Dodgers amassed a fleet of them. There are some starters with back-end potential, and Rodriguez can perhaps be a little more than that. It's not looking great so far, but in fairness to the Dodgers, there's still a lot of variance with the possible outcomes.
Miami Marlins:
First Round: (17) Calvin Mitchell—LF
Second Round: (17) Trevor Larnarch—RF
Third Round: (15) Jarid Joseph—3B
Best Player: Calvin Mitchell
Best Deep Cut: (20) Mijon Cummings
Total ML WAR: 1.7
Review: Miami had some success picking outfielders in this draft. After a promising rookie year, Calvin Mitchell struggled in his sophomore year with a negative win campaign. Still, he has an advanced his tool, major league power, and a good glove. He should be a starter for years as he refines his approach.
Second rounder Trevor Larnarch has pounded Triple-A for two different clubs the past two years. Brief stints in the majors haven't gone well, but the skillset looks fine and the minor-league production is impressive. Sixth rounder Chris Chatfield looks balanced in just about every area, making him a safe player who can be a second division starter or good backup.
Miami's attempts to find other positions have gone less favorably. Third round Third Baseman Jarid Joseph is out of baseball after he produced in Double A in 202 but got cut after an MVP runner-up season. Fifth Rounder Kevin Abel may be able to cut it as a middle or long relief option. Very few other players drafted are still playing professionally.
Grade: A-: Mitchell looks like a long-term starter and Larnarch looks like a pro as well. Throw in Chatfield and a draft that's fairly weak on outfielders, and that's good value.
Milwaukee Brewers:
First Round: (13) Konnor Pilkington—P
Second Round: (12) Cash Case—2B
Third Round: (11) Elijah Cabell—CF
Best Player: Zack Prajzner (6)
Best Deep Cut: Luke Shilling (11)
Total ML WAR: 2.1
Review: Pilkington has made the majors, but he's an extremely erratic pitcher with big stuff and no control. As a result, he's a reliever in the bigs. The player picked directly after him, Jeremiah Estrada, has shown more promise as a major league pitcher.
Cash Case has a 70-Grade Glove, a 70-Grade name, but a 35-Grade Bat, meaning he's a Triple-A player unless a team feels they need a defensive replacement in September. On the other hand, Elijah Cabell still needs time in the slow cooker, but his speed and defense are major league caliber and OSA thinks the bat will eventually get there.
Parker McFadden may be able to make the majors as a Quad-A reliever as a fifth rounder, while 11th rounder Luke Shilling may have the same fate. As fifth and 11th rounders in a terrible draft for pitching, that isn't nothing. 10th rounder John Boushelle and 23rd rounder Josh DeBacker likewise may be Triple-A starters, so a little bit of a development break may get them over the top.
Grade: C-: Milwaukee missed with their first few picks, though Cabell has some projection. After that, Milwaukee doesn't have too many sure bets to be impactful players, but they have a few guys who could be good in Triple-A. At that point, quantity over quality matters as the more players you have who just need a small development bump, the greater the chance one of them gets that bump.
Minnesota Twins:
First Round: (7) Seth Romero—P—UNSIGNED
Second Round: (9) Nate Pearson—P—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (8) Alek Thomas—CF—UNSIGNED
Best Player: Michael Perez (6)
Best Deep Cut: Seth Kinker (22)
Total ML WAR: 1.2
Review: The Twins didn't sign any of their first five picks in 2018, costing the team a huge talent infusion. Seth Romero retired after being cut by the Reds after 2022, but had promise, though Nate Pearson looks like a Triple-A reliever. Alek Thomas looks like a fourth outfielder, possibly a starting Center Fielder if you squint. None of these players were signed.
Still, Minnesota did find some talent in the draft. Sixth rounder Michael Perez hit .283 as a Shortstop in 53 games last year, earning 1.2 WAR, which is pretty good for a sixth rounder. Only three players produced more WAR after his selection. Also, down in the 22nd round, Minnesota picked Seth Kinker who had a strong year in Triple-A last season and looks like someone who can hold his own in the back of the rotation.
Grade: D: Minnesota found a couple of guys who look decent, a fact not every team can claim. That being said, the Twins don't have a guaranteed starter-caliber player despite picking seventh in the round. That's not the best return.
New York Yankees:
First Round: (19) Casey Mize—P (Compensation for not signing Tristan Lutz)
First Round: (25) Jarred Kelenic—RF
Second Round: (19) Keaton McKinney—P (Compensation for not signing Jeremiah Estrada)
Second Round: (25) Jake Eder—P
Third Round: (19) Drew Waters—CF (Compensation for not signing Dan Cabrera)
Third Round: (24) Jacob Allred—RF
Best Player: Jarred Kelenic
Best Deep Cut: Nick Meyer (12)
Total ML WAR: 7.0
Review: Now 26, Mize hasn't been able to crack through as a productive major leaguer. He hasn't been able to develop his breaking pitches, relying on using his splitter more and nibbling around the strike zone, torpedoing his control. The stuff and downward movement is good enough to succeed, but until the control improves, Mize is a Triple-A pitcher. Mize likely has a brighter future then Tristan Lutz at least, as Lutz doesn't look like he has a future in the upper minors let alone the majors.
Jarred Kelenic has turned into a star. As a 23-year-old, he hit .296 with an .884 OPS for the Yankees, with only a miscast role as a Center Fielder and a few core injuries holding back his WAR. He's an offensive lynchpin who could contend for MVPs in the future, and he was selected late in the first round. He's a great selection.
Keaton McKinney has never been able to develop a changeup which will likely limit him to a career in relief. Considering Jeremiah Estrada looks like a potential long-term starter, the Yankees would have been better off signing Estrada in 2017. Jake Eder struggled in his rookie season in San Francisco after being selected from the Yankees in the Rule V draft. Eder hides the ball really well and has a good curveball, which should make him a solid relief arm.
Drew Waters has great speed and defense, but doesn't have the bat to make the big leagues. The Yanks were allowed a pick to draft him because they didn't sign Dan Cabrera the year before. Where Waters looks like a stretch to play in the bigs, Cabrera looks like a solid Left Fielder in San Francisco. Like with Estrada, the Yankees would have been better served signing their 2017 pick.
Jacob Allred had a 3.2 win season for the Orioles last year as a Rule V pick from New York. Allred is a fantastic defender and put up 38 doubles in his rookie year as a 23-year-old. Only one player selected after him as put up more WAR, and Allred should be able to continue to produce for a long time.
The Yankees picked a lot of pitchers between the fourth and 11th rounds. None of those arms look like major leaguers, but the entire lot of them essentially can survive in Triple-A. There's a shot one of them makes a jump and provides positive WAR in the bigs. New York also has a terrific amount of late picks still playing professional baseball, which gives the team a chance to accumulate more WAR down the line.
Grade: B+: It's a complicated draft with quite a few moving parts. The Kelenic and Allred picks are terrific and go a long way to drive a strong grade. Eder is more of a C- as a possible reliever in the second round. While Mize is a better pick than Lutz was in 2017, the selection is undone by the Yankees other compensation picks turning out far worse than the unsigned 2017 players. Throw in a boost from the sheer quantity of mid-round picks in the upper minors and late-round picks still playing baseball, and you end up with the B+.
New York Mets:
First Round: (33) Nick Sprengel—P
Second Round: (36) Matt Pidich—P
Third Round: (36) Nick Dunn—2B
Best Player: Nick Dunn
Best Deep Cut: Will Haueter (17)
Total ML WAR: 0.3
Review: The Mets managed to draft three guys who made the PBA in this draft class so it wasn't a total failure. The problem is none of them have turned into anything positive for the Mets. First round pick P Nick Sprengel broke through to the PBA last year at age 26 and had -0.6 WAR out of the bullpen. Despite the poor year OSA thinks Sprengel still has some potential as a lefty reliever. Sprengel's development was completely mismanaged. He was thrown to the wolves in Triple-A at the age of 20 and then bounced around through all levels of the Mets system. He may have had more potential at one point, but as a guy without a plus third pitch and a lack of velocity he does not look like a great first round pick for the Mets.
Second rounder P Matt Pidich was also extremely mismanaged. He was also tossed into Triple-A to start his career and spent his first three years there putting up ERA's north of 6. Pidich retired following this past season. Pidich only ever had reliever upside but he was never really given a chance to succeed by the Mets.
Third round Second Baseman Nick Dunn looks like the only player from this Mets draft class who will amount to much. Dunn was traded three times in his career before making the PBA in 2023, showing that GMs have always seen some value in him. He was originally traded by the Mets along with some other prospects to the Mariners. In return the Mets received starter Jeff Samardzija, reliever Buddy Boshers and starter Tyler Chatwood. Samardzija pitched one season of 1.2 WAR baseball for the Mets, Boshers was a negative WAR reliever over a couple, and Chatwood blew out his arm 10 days after the trade was completed. Not exactly what you want. Dunn was traded one other time before being selected by the Phillies in the 2022 rule V draft and shipped to Baltimore for a 5th round pick. As a rookie he put up 1.3 WAR as Baltimore's starting Second Baseman. Dunn looks like he has a future as a solid platoon Second Baseman baseman which would be good value for his draft position.
Fifth rounder starter Jacob Stevens is the best and only deep cut for the Mets from this class. He looks to have some back-end rotation potential. Like Sprengel and Dunn he made his major league debut this past season, assembling -0.3 WAR in 41 IP. Also like his fellow pitcher picks he was inexplicably tossed into Triple-A to begin his professional career, which likely stunted his development.
Grade: D: The Mets managed to pick three major leaguers in 2018 so the class can't be considered an F, but it's about the next closest thing. None of these players look like they will ever contribute anything too meaningful for the Mets. Sprengel and Stevens look to have ceilings as JAGs and Dunn is an Oriole. Flinging them and other notable pitcher picks into AAA to start their careers is also especially egregious. One has to imagine they may have looked better by now if they had been allowed to develop properly.
Oakland Athletics:
First Round: (3) Nick Allen—SS
First Round: (8) Will Banfield—C (Compensation for not signing Alex Faedo)
Second Round: (3) Francisco DeJesus—1B
Second Round: (8) Blake Hunt—C (Compensation for not signing Jacob Pearson)
Third Round: (3) Cade Pollard—1B
Best Player: Francisco DeJesus
Best Deep Cut: Grant Cox (14)
Total ML WAR: 14.7
Review: Nick Allen's bat hasn't come around yet, but his speed and defense will play in the majors and he's still improving. Still, for a player selected third overall, Allen will need to produce more than a second-division starter. This is especially the case with so many other shortstops looking excellent. Will Banfield is likewise still improving and can be a major league backup, but that's not a great return for a number-eight pick. Other catchers lower in the draft have out-produced Banfield, as has Alex Faedo, the player Oakland failed to sign the year earlier.
Francisco DeJesus developed into a superstar. He's an MVP candidate who has the third most WAR to date of anyone in the class. It's likely he finishes with the second most WAR of the class when his career wraps up. For a second-rounder, that's a hell of a find.
Blake Hunt could be a low-end starter or a high-end backup. That's not terrible for a second-round pick, but Brendan Tinsman was taken a few spots later. The player they didn't sign the year prior has turned into a strong starting Center Fielder that Oakland could have had instead.
Cade Pollard hasn't made the majors yet. He's hit in the low minors and may be a second-division starter as a First Baseman, but while the glove is good, the bat is underwhelming for the position. Fourth rounder Jayson Gonzalez has the ability to play Third Base and a bit more patience than Pollard, making his prospects a little brighter.
The rest of the top-10 picks that were signed look like Triple-A starters and there's little in the low minors.
Grade: C+: The Allen pick is probably a D, considering how many good shortstops were taken later in the draft. How does Allen compare to Brice Turang for example? Likewise, the Banfield pick also looks like a D, with the Hunt selection even worse. DeJesus makes up for some of those sins, but not all. Gonzalez also was a nice selection. Still, the ability to turn Alex Faedo and Jacob Pearson into backup catchers is a heavy anchor to DeJesus' brilliance.
Philadelphia Phillies:
First Round: (1) Seth Beer—RF
Second Round: (6) Tyler Freeman—SS—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (6) Tanner Burns—P
Best Player: Seth Beer
Best Deep Cut: Dominic DiCaprio (13)
Total ML WAR: 26.2
Review: Seth Beer was an obvious first overall pick and the Phillies didn't do anything cute. They selected Beer, made sure to focus development around him, and watched him turn into a player with a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. Beer may go down as the best player in PBA history when it's all said and done.
Tyler Freeman looks like a second-division starter or backup middle infielder. The Phillies used their compensation pick the next season on a player with a similar profile. Tanner Burns looks like a relief arm. He'll be 25 next year, and it'll be a big season for him in determining whether he has a major league path or not. He hasn't had a positive go of it in Double-A Reading.
Mid-round picks Cody Deason, Ryan Mota, Matthew Comerford, and Colton Eastman all look like Triple-A pitchers who may be able to have a shot as a swingman and last arm in the pen. That amount of depth is a positive.
Ninth rounder Tim Susnara has already had some experience in the majors, performing well as a backup in 2022. He's got enough to stick as a backup, which is a win for a ninth-rounder.
Grade: A: Philadelphia made sure to select the obvious candidate and ended up with a superstar. The Beer selection has helped catapult the team into the upper echelon of baseball teams. Philadelphia didn't hurt themselves too badly by not signing Freeman, and their stockpile of Triple-A caliber arms may result in one or two popping and working out.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
First Round: (28) Jeremiah Jackson—SS—UNSIGNED
Second Round: (14) Gunner Hoglund—P (Compensation for not signing Calvin Mitchell)
Second Round: (32) Hugh Fisher—P
Third Round: (32) Daniel Sprinkle—P
Best Player: Daniel Sprinkle
Best Deep Cut: (18) Korby Batesole
Total ML WAR: 0
Review: Jackson looks like a really interesting utility player that Pittsburgh missed out on, though he became a second round pick the next year. Calvin Mitchell turned into a starting Left Fielder, while Gunner Hoglund has finally escaped the low minors and looks like either a Triple-A Starter or a Triple-A First Baseman.
Hugh Fisher looks like he may be able to stick at the back of a rotation, but he was dreadful in Triple-A in 2023 as a reliever. Sprinkle has already succeeded in Indianapolis and produced a 0.0 WAR with 13 strikeouts in 11.1 Major League innings. Sixth rounder Davis Vainer may also stick at the back of a rotation, but went 3-11 with a 6.20 ERA in Triple-A last year.
Most of the Pirates middle and later picks are still playing baseball, so there's the chance one of them pops. Most of them are low-minors fodder, with Korby Batesole's good defense at Second Base his one major league skill.
Grade: F: The Pirates got virtually no sure major leaguers, let talent go without signing it, and passed up on talent in previous drafts to get the opportunity to draft inferior players. All-in-all, a bleak draft.
San Diego Padres:
First Round: (6) Royce Lewis—SS
Second Round: (2) M.J. Melendez—C
Third Round: (2) Cole McKay—P
Best Player: Royce Lewis
Best Deep Cut: (27) Zach Reid
Total ML WAR: -0.3
Review: Royce Lewis has been a Top 10 prospect every year of his career and should be a star shortstop. It took him awhile to develop and he did not have a good first 41 games in the majors. Xavier Edwards and Brice Turang are his comp set and Turang is younger, made the majors earlier, and has produced at a high level. There's huge potential with Lewis, but also pressure based on the other players San Diego could have had.
M.J. Melendez has developed slowly, but still could be a starting catcher in the majors, which is a nice find. Francisco DeJesus, taken one spot after him, would have been a nicer find.
Cole McKay has topped out as a Triple-A starter, and at 26 years old, it's hard to see him getting over the final hill and becoming a major leaguer. Likewise, fourth round First Baseman K.J. Harrison and eight round pitcher Jonathan Hughes appear to be headed for a ceiling of Triple-A regulars.
The 2018 draft as a whole doesn't appear to be one with a lot of talent after the first four rounds or so. San Diego getting sixth rounder Angel Tiburcio appears to be a nice grab with that backdrop. The three-pitch pitcher has good control and fields his position exceptionally, elements that may allow his straight fastball and propensity to hang changeups to play up.
Grade: C+: The Lewis selection looks like a B+ pick, and it's possible Melendez does something in the majors as well. The fact that other shortstops in the first and second round have already had stellar starts to their career keeps the Lewis pick out of the A range, though with a whole career ahead of him, he can turn that around in a major way. Not picking DeJesus drops the grade a bit too. San Diego didn't get much outside of those two players despite picking high in each round, preventing added value to the early picks.
San Francisco Giants:
First Round: (35) Shane Benes—2B
Second Round: (38) David Bedgood—SS
Third Round: (38) Ford Proctor—2B
Best Player: Shane Benes
Best Deep Cut: Toby Dunlap (11)
Total ML WAR: 13.3
Review: Even if Benes performs more like his 2023 3.4 WAR campaign than his 6.7 WAR 2022, Benes is still a first-division middle infielder who has already produced 13.3 WAR in his career. Only Seth Beer has more WAR from the draft class than Benes, and Beer was the first overall pick. Benes was picked 34 spots later.
David Bedgood was a sleepy pick, but Proctor looks like a pretty good backup infielder who can hit just enough to start in a pinch.
Fifth rounder David Spagnuolo had an awful season last year, but scouts think he has enough talent to be a 12th or 13th member of a pitching staff, perhaps as a starter. Seventh round pick Ryan Feltner also looks like a back-end starting pitcher or a decent reliever, while 11th rounder Toby Dunlap was on a path to the majors until injuries derailed his last two seasons.
Sixth round selection Brady Smith hasn't played much in the minors, but scouts think he has enough defensive tools and gap power to be a backup catcher in a pinch.
Grade: A+: Getting a star in Seth Benes way back with the 35th pick is excellent work. The Giants added to the selection with a number of pitching prospects that may pay dividends, and a middle infielder who has already had success as a quality backup. Considering the low quality of the draft pool, then the caliber of Benes combined with the quantity of options can only be graded with an A+.
Seattle Mariners:
First Round: (19) Jeremiah Estrada—P
Second Round: (15) Brendan Tinsman—C
Third Round: (13) Joseph Mercado—P—UNSIGNED
Third Round: (20) Garrett Wolforth—C (Compensation for not signing Garrett Cave)
Best Player: Brendan Tinsman
Best Deep Cut: Nick Maton (12)
Total ML WAR: 2.4
Review: Estrada is a good looking pitching prospects who had a good season as a swingman in San Francisco last year. He'll pitch next year as a 25-year-old and should be a starting pitcher with the Giants. Brendan Tinsman is still developing slowly as critics have panned his work ethic. Nevertheless, he'll spend next year as a 24-year-old and has fantastic two-way ability as a Catcher.
Joseph Mercado wasn't signed and was drafted the next year in the 25th round by Boston. Their other third rounder, Garrett Wolforth, is a terrific defensive catcher and would likely be a major league backup if not for the fact that he's currently playing in Japan. He was the league's #13 prospect last year and looks like a better prospect than Garrett Cave.
Fifth rounder Grant Wilhelm had an ERA of 10.55 in Triple-A this season, though he had major issues with management on how he was used and the makeup of the Tacoma Rainiers. Scouts love the junkball nature of his arsenal, but it may take a move out of Seattle to hone it.
In the 12th round, Seattle selected Nick Maton, a player who scouts believe could be a second-division starter. However, after being traded to Kansas City in the Jorge de la Rosa/Jhoulys Chacin trade, he was subsequently released and went to play in Japan.
Grade: A: It's a pretty deep draft for Seattle. With their first pick they got a good looking pitcher in a draft not known for pitching. With their second pick, they got a good looking catcher after most catchers selected ahead of them failed. They quickly realized their error with Joseph Mercado and moved on. Some of their mid-round picks look like decent enough players, even if the talent moved overseas or was mismanaged. In a pretty weak draft, it's a pretty good body of work.
St. Louis Cardinals:
First Round: (11) Kumar Rocker—P
First Round: (21) Nick Pratto—1B (Compensation for not signing Nick Pratto)
Second Round: (16) Jordan Groshans—SS
Second Round: (21) Tanner Houck—P (Compensation for not signing M.J. Melendez)
Third Round: (14) Austin Rubick—P
Third Round: (21) Mitch Stallings—P (Compensation for not signing Philip Clarke)
Best Player: Nick Pratto
Best Deep Cut: Jordan Bonk (12)
Total ML WAR: 9.5
Review: Kumar's stuff didn't play well in his first half-season in the PBA, but he has a fantastic curveball and good stamina. At worst he's a setup man, but there may be a good starter there and as he'll only be entering his age 24-season, the Cardinals will have some room to find out.
The Cardinals got a compensation pick for not signing Nick Pratto in 2017 and used it to draft—Nick Pratto. Perhaps the Cardinals saved some money in only having to give him a $2.8 million signing bonus. Pratto figured to be a bit of an atypical First Baseman as well as he did not have any power when he was first drafted in 2017 and didn't project to be a major slugger. Despite his 16 home runs in St. Louis in 2022 being a career high for any year, Pratto's hit tool and batting eye make him an excellent at bat, as he can hit over .300 with a .400 OBP any year. He also uses the whole field, including the lines, allowing him to bash doubles off the wall, lasers to the warning track, and hooks and slices inside the foul lines. Pratto's already led the league in doubles once, and he's only 25.
Jordan Groshans is a great glove on the left side of the infield and has a good enough bat to play Third Base if he moves off Shortstop. Now on Pittsburgh, he'll play his age-24 season next year and he's still growing into his bat. There's a potential for a starting-caliber player though.
Tanner Houck did not develop and the pick would have been better served as M.J. Melendez as Melendez has the potential to be a major league player. Likewise, Austin Rubick is likely not a player who can make the upper reaches of a system. Mitch Stallings completes the trifecta as a bust of a pitcher. He's not even playing baseball anymore.
St. Louis did draft an arm in the seventh round who has some promise. Adam Wolf has exceptional deception with his changeup and is a candidate to pitch in the majors as a result. Finally, Jordan Bonk has a solid enough bat to cut it as a backup middle infielder who can stick at Shortstop. He's currently the #15 prospect in Japan entering his age-25 season.
Grade: B-: The jury is still out on Rocker, but he's so young that he'll have time to make his case. So few pitchers in the draft ended up working out so he doesn't have a lot of talented comps held against him. Pratto was the right pick in 2017 and the right pick in 2018 and looks like a centerpiece for years. Groshans was selected after most of the elite middle infielders were taken, which helps his case. He can also play third base which helps his case. The pitchers after Houck didn't amount to anything. It's a little disappointing to have the volume of early picks the Cardinals had and turn it into so few players though. Even Pratto is offset a bit by the presence of Francisco DeJesus early in the Second Round. Also, Pratto's selection essentially means the Cardinals threw away a pick in 2017. Context brings his selection down, and Melendez being better than Houck brings that selection way down. There's a lot of volatility in this draft that will be up to Rocker and Groshans to determine.
Tampa Bay Rays:
First Round: (5) Wyatt Cross (Compensation for not signing Royce Lewis)
First Round: (23) Dan Cabrera—LF
Second Round: (5) Elih Marrero—C (Compensation for not signing Tanner Houck)
Second Round: (24) Justin Bellinger—1B
Third Round: (5) Chandler Newman—P (Compensation for not signing Adam Kerner)
Third Round: (23) Brady Singer—P
Best Player: Dan Cabrera
Best Deep Cut: John Grimsley (11)
Total ML WAR: 2.2 WAR
Review: Wyatt Cross was selected in a spot that could have been Royce Lewis. That move is already a downgrade. Lewis was selected a spot after Cross and has the brighter future as well. Cross will play next season as a 27-year-old next year, and doesn't appear to have the bat to start full time. He could be a bad-bat, all-glove player that returns value, but you don't need to pick that guy fifth overall.
Tampa Bay bet on Dan Cabrera's work ethic, and it paid off for the Giants. Cabrera gets the most out of limited physical tools, and has become someone with a decent eye and a decent bat. However, Jared Kelenic was popped two spots behind him. Elih Marrero has a very similar profile to Wyatt Cross, but as a second round pick, that has more value. Tanner Houck never put things together, so punting on him to get Marrero looks prudent. Chandler Newman could be a back-end starter, while Adam Kerner will never make the majors.
Justin Bellinger is a Quad-A First Baseman, Brady Singer is a free agent without a path to the majors, and fourth rounder Trevor Horn is a Quad-A starting pitcher, so those picks won't return value. The one thing about the later part of Tampa Bay's draft though, is that many of the guys are still active, so there's always the possibility of a late-career development spike churning out some value.
Grade: D+: The Cross pick doesn't look good in hindsight, and there aren't enough inspired selections in the top 10 to make up for it. Newman and Marrero could be okay, but only okay, and while Dan Cabrera is alright, Jered Kelenic has become a star. The saving graces are that Cross and Cabrera have at least become major leaguers and that there are a lot of active players from later in the draft still kicking.
Texas Rangers:
First Round: Forfeited for signing Carlos Santana
Second Round: (28) Mikey Polansky—1B
Third Round: (28) James Marinan—P
Best Player: Mikey Polansky
Best Deep Cut: (24) Daniel Millwee
Total ML WAR: -1.1
Review: For starters, Carlos Santana gave Texas 5.1 WAR across two seasons with the Rangers winning 100 and 89 games those two years. Santana only produced for two years and made roughly $42 million, way more than the cost control teams get from drafted players. On the other hand, Santana helped produce for a terrific team in the middle of its contention cycle and we don't have too much insight into the value of late first round picks.
Polansky looks like a second division starting third baseman. Originally a 10th round pick of the Angels, he's bounced around in trades and had a rough go of it with the Braves in his rookie year last year. Still, while there isn't an impact skill, he's a major league caliber hitter with major league caliber power, a major league approach and major league defense. He can't hit lefties, but can be a part of a platoon.
James Marinian never put it together and retired after a failed stint in Japan in 2020. Fifth rounder Jared Jackson was traded in the Carlos Correa deal and may have been pushed to the minors too early by Houston. Only 23, he's allowed 29 home runs in 152 innings as his fringy repertoire has been hit hard. There's a back-end starter if he can develop his changeup, but he may be suffering whiplash from all the homers. Glenn Otto has two good pitches, which puts him at the cusp of the bigs. He's hasn't been able to throw strikes though, making him more than likely to top out at Triple-A.
Only one player drafted after the 9th round, Daniel Millwee, is playing organized baseball.
Grade: B: Let's give the Santana signing a C+ as providing somewhat neutral value comparing what Texas would have gotten with an expected late first rounder versus Santana's contributions to a strong Texas team. Polansky is an A for showing promise as a late-second rounder in a bad draft with very few Third Basemen drafted. Texas didn't do too badly with some of their mid-round picks, though they won't get much of anything from late picks with so many of them out of baseball.
Toronto Blue Jays:
First Round: (30) Taylor Walls—SS
Second Round: (33) Connor Scott—RF
Third Round: (33) Omar Baldo—C
Best Player: Taylor Walls
Best Deep Cut: Trey Dawson (11)
Total ML WAR: 10.1
Review: In two-plus years in the bigs Taylor Walls has become one of the better young middle infielders in the American League, having posted 4 WAR in his first full season with Toronto, and following that up with an excellent 5.6 WAR season which could have been even better if not for a nagging back injury in the final months of the season. OSA says that Taylor Walls is the Sixth best Shorstop in the PBA at the moment, and could be even better at Second Base. In fact, Walls' flexibility is a boon to a Toronto team that rolls out very fluid lineups. Toronto has one of the best young infields in the game, and Walls has been a major part of that.
Connor Scott has had a strange career thus far. After setting Triple-A on fire in 2022 he was called up to the majors at the end of the year. Serving as an injury replacement in the playoffs, he won the ALCS MVP award for the Blue Jays. He played 20 games total in the PBA, 10 in the regular season, 10 in the postseason, and won an ALCS MVP—only to follow that up with a middling 2023 in Triple-A.. Looking at the rest of his performance in the minors it seems like that 2022 run was more a fluke than anything else. He's a quad-A player at best.
Baldo is a very good defensive catcher whose bat has not been up to par in any league that he has played in as a pro. This is simply who he is.
Fourth round pick Justin Hagenman was out of baseball within three seasons and fifth rounder Tylor Fischer has struggled in Triple-A. Sixth rounder Cadyn Grenier's a tough player, but has never developed the range at Shortstop to give him a real major league future.
Grade: B+: When you find a 4+ WAR a year player at the back end of the first round it is hard to give a bad overall grade, but there is no one—literally—in this draft after Walls who looks like they can be major contributors to a major league ballclub.
Washington Nationals:
First Round: (26) Ryder Green—P—UNSIGNED
Second Round: (27) Nick O'Day—LF
Second Round: (29) Tim Borden—2B (Compensation for not signing Drew Waters)
Third Round: (25) Hunter Watson—3B
Third Round: (29) Kody Clemens—SS—UNSIGNED
Best Player: Tim Borden
Best Deep Cut: Steven Foster (27)
Total ML WAR: 0.3
Review: Green isn't developing as quickly as desired, but still has the potential to be starter in the PBA with a power bat. The fact that he wasn't signed hurts, as does the fact that Francisco DeJesus was picked later on.
Nick O'Day looks like he can be a second-division outfielder in the PBA, though he didn't have a great showing in Triple-A last year. He'll play next year as a 24-year-old so he still has time for further development. Tim Borden found his way to Oakland in the Sean Doolittle trade and looks like a keeper. He's also still young, only 24, but he hit well across two levels and has a terrific glove. He's another strong middle infielder taken in a draft filled with them. Considering Drew Waters hasn't escaped rookie ball, the pick has worked out fantastically.
Hunter Watson looks like a good pick as a second-division third baseman. There's no patience there, but Watson has showed power and a plus glove. In a weak draft for Third Baseman, that's a win. Kody Clemens was also drafted and not signed. While labeled a Shortstop, there was no chance he'd ever play the position and was moved to Third Base quickly. He has a shot to be a backup in the majors. The next year, Washington took a guy who is already out of baseman, so Clemons would have better to hold on to.
The Nationals didn't sign their picks in rounds four or five, and their sixth and seventh round picks are already out of baseball. Marrick Crouse was taken in the eighth round and was essentially a replacement-level relief arm in 2022. He had a strong 2019 as a starter and may be a serviceable back-end starter in the PBA. Ninth-rounder Jeff Fasching is likely only a Triple-A reliever at this point. The only other player picked still playing baseball is 27th rounder Steven Foster, a High-A First Baseman with no potential to play above that level.
Grade: C: Washington found some hits with some extra picks in early rounds and a keen eye in grabbing Marrick Crouse in the eighth round. Whiffing on Greene is a huge miss though, and cancels out some of the good finds. On one hand, Washington found a good amount of serviceable major leaguers, but on the other hand, they could have had Francisco DeJesus.
Most WAR
Philadelphia Phillies 26.9
Chicago White Sox 16.5
Oakland Athletics 14.7
San Francisco Giants 14.5
Atlanta Braves 10.4
Toronto Blue Jays 10.1
St. Louis Cardinals 9.5
Detroit Tigers 7.3
New York Yankees 7
Colorado Rockies 4.6
Baltimore Orioles 3.9
Kansas City Royals 2.6
Seattle Mariners 2.4
Tampa Bay Rays 2.2
Milwaukee Brewers 2.1
Miami Marlins 1.7
Los Angeles Angels 1.7
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.6
Minnesota Twins 1.2
Cincinnati Reds 1
Chicago Cubs 0.7
New York Mets 0.7
Houston Astros 0.3
Washington Nationals 0.3
Pittsburgh Pirates 0
Boston Red Sox -0.1
San Diego Padres -0.3
Los Angeles Dodgers -0.4
Texas Rangers -1.1