2024 AL Central Preview
Jul 28, 2020 22:10:38 GMT -5
Commissioner Erick, dbackhon, and 3 more like this
Post by brewersgm on Jul 28, 2020 22:10:38 GMT -5
The AL Central is one of the toughest divisions in baseball. It contains last year's World Series champion Twins club and two other teams that have won at least 90 games in consecutive years. None of the White Sox, Royals, or Twins seem to be falling off anytime soon. The Tigers finished 4th place last year but are still a talented team and signed a big piece from one of their competitors this offseason. The only certainty in this division seems to be the Indians finishing last, as Cleveland is still deep in the middle of a rebuilding phase.
1) Chicago White Sox
2023: 93-70, 2nd Place AL Central. Lost Wildcard game to the New York Yankees
Who They Were: Despite finishing with the best run differential in the division, the White Sox had to play a game 163 against the Royals to make the playoffs. They then lost a heartbreaking wildcard game to the Yankees. Chicago led the AL in ERA and finished 3rd in OPS. Studs Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi hit for identical averages and put up 7 WAR apiece to lead the lineup, and the Carlos duo of Martinez and Rodon each had 6 WAR seasons to lead the pitching staff.
Offseason Review: The biggest offseason story for the club was the loss of ace Carlos Martinez in free agency. Martinez had been with the White Sox since 2018 and has been one of the leagues best pitchers in that time frame. This continues a trend for the White Sox, as they also lost star SS Dansby Swanson to free agency last year. Blake Snell was brought in from the Rays in a shrewd move to try and replace Martinez, but replacing one of the best starting pitchers in the league will be a tall task. OFer Aristides Aquino was also signed in FA to give the team some depth and replace the loss of Tim Anderson.
On the Farm: OSA ranks the White Sox farm system 17th in the PBA, which seems fair. It is a pitching heavy system as Chicago's three top 100 players are SP. SP Pat French still needs to work on refining his control but the number 1 overall pick in 2022 looks to have an ETA of later this season or 2025. Jeremy Myers and Alex Tietz are a pair of interesting arms in AA as well. The closest impact position player is CF Rodolfo Acevedo who could appear this season as a solid OF option.
Best Case Scenario: Blake Snell is able to help Sox fans stomach the loss of CarMart. The White Sox win 98 games with strong pitching, Devers, and Benintendi. They manage to avoid the Yankees in the playoffs.
Worst Case Scenario: Snell struggles with the transition to a hitters park and the White Sox top heavy roster struggles with the loss of one of its studs. The team wins 90 games and places 3rd in the tough AL Central, which may not be enough to make the playoffs in the AL.
Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi are no longer on their cheap pre-arb and arbitration contracts. How does their increased cost affect your roster building strategy?
2) Kansas City Royals
2023: 92-71, 3rd place AL Central.
Who They Were: The Royals were probably the best team in the PBA to not make the playoffs last season. A midseason slump forced the team to have to claw their way to a game 163 against the White Sox which they lost, placing them with a 90 win season but with no playoffs. The Royals finished 2nd in the AL in ERA, but the lineup was middle of the back in OPS. SP Brent Honeywell was the only player who had a true standout season. He came over from the Rays in a blockbuster and led the team with 4.1 WAR. Don't let the lack of high WAR seasons fool you however, the Royals had 10 players break the 2 WAR mark and were one of the more deep and balanced teams in the league.
Offseason Review: The Royals were the offseason. They made 13 trades and were involved in 95% of all trades in the league (that last part may or may not be true). The bullpen was totally revamped and a pair of top 20 position players added to the lineup in C Gary Sanchez and SS J.P. Crawford. The only team to add more WAR to their club were the Pittsburgh Pirates. They didn't lose much to free agency either. However the starting pitching may be a weak point. The Royals rotation is rather old and the team lacks young impact starters.
On the Farm: The Royals farm is ranked #11 overall by OSA. The team has drafted a lot of pitchers in the past few drafts but the jewel of the system is 1B/DH Jorge Vargas who looks like a future middle of the order anchor. However he is only in A ball as are most of the team's best prospects. SP's Nick Boutin, Frank Aguilar, and Roger Airhart are names to keep an eye on who will all start the year in A ball along with Vargas. There isn't much in the high minors in terms of reinforcements for this season so if the Royals need to get better they will have to make yet another trade.
Best Case Scenario: The Royals SP staff holds it together and the team's balance leads to a 98 win season and a division title.
Worst Case Scenario: Brent Honeywell is unable to reproduce his last season and the starting pitching drags the team down to 90 wins and another missed chance at the playoffs.
Key Questions:
Chance Adams was the biggest addition to the starting pitching staff. Do you believe he can replicate his career year in Tampa? Are you confident in your pitching staff to hold it together for the season or can we expect to see more trades?
You added a lot of new relievers to the team. Which one are you most excited about contributing to your bullpen?
3) Minnesota Twins
2023: 95-67, 1st Place AL Central. Defeated the Seattle Mariners 4-2 in the ALDS. Defeated the New York Yankees 4-2 in the ALCS. Defeated the Chicago Cubs 4-2 in the World Series.
Who They Were: The Minnesota Twins are the reigning World Series Champions. Minnesota won the brutal AL Central by 2.5 games and ran the gauntlet in the postseason. The lineup was prolific. They led the AL in runs scored with every regular starter except for their SS having a wRC+ of at least 114. Rule V pick 2B Michael Busch led the team with 4.3 WAR and made the all star game. Trade additions C Buster Posey and 3B Yoan Moncada had fantastic abbreviated seasons with the team. Despite only having 3 stamina SP Osiris German was able to put up 3.7 WAR in 159.1 IP thanks to his 11.6 K/9 rate. In short everything that could go right for the Twins did.
Offseason Review: As a small market, Minnesota could not retain all of the rentals who were brought on to help win the World Series. Moncada and Posey left in free agency, as did Jared Eichoff who although not a big factor in postseason play, was a solid starter for the team in the regular season. Slugger Bryan Martelo was dealt to the Braves for pitching and catching help as the Twins made a move from a position of strength to shore up a position of weakness. The most exciting part of this offseason for Twins fans will be looking forward to a full season of top prospect CF Wessel Russchen. the Dutch sensation is an elite prospect, and one of the more toolsy in the league. He should be the Twins CFer for years to come, adding a big piece to an already deep OF.
On the Farm: OSA has the Twins as the number 10 farm in the game, although that is largely held up by Russchen. Besides Russchen (who is already in the majors) the Twins have just two top 100 prospects in SP Jeff Burton and 2B Steve Mulvey. Burton is only in A ball and Mulvey may find himself blocked by Michael Busch. SP Pat Cypert is a hard throwing upper minors arm to look out for, but aside from him and Russchen don't expect too much from the Twins farm system to make an impact this season.
Best Case Scenario: The Twins catching additions are able to make up for the loss of Posey, and players like Allen Cordoba and Ricardo De La Torre make up for the loss of Moncada at 3rd base. Wessel Russchen emerges as one of the best players in the PBA. The Twins win the division for a 2nd time with 95 wins and are able to secure a chance to defend their title.
Worst Case Scenario: The loss of the rentals/11.9 WAR over the offseason is enough to place the Twins at 3rd in the division. Improvements and additions of young players like Russchen and Cypert isn't enough to close the gap in one of the toughest divisions in the PBA. The Twins win 88 games and find themselves missing the postseason.
Key Questions:
Luis Robert is an incredibly talented player who has struggled to stay healthy. What are you expectations for him this season?
You dealt away some prospects for the stretch run last year and it worked out perfectly. Do you think there is enough left in the system to make similar moves if need be?
4) Detroit Tigers
2023: 83-79, 4th place AL Central.
Who They Were: The Tigers were a middle of the pack team, finishing 10th in the AL in ERA, and 7th in OPS. OFers Jacob Pearson and Amari Maggette broke out in their 2nd full seasons. Along with late FA signing 3B Kyle Seager they provided the team with 86 homers at the heart of the lineup. The Tigers pitching staff had a pair of 4 WAR starters between Griffin Canning and Gregory Reinoso. It was a team that may have been able to challenge for the playoffs in almost any other division.
Offseason Review: So far this offseason the Tigers have only added two players. P Ricardo Pinto was an unremarkable waiver claim but the other player is Carlos Martinez one of the best pitchers in the PBA. Adding Martinez to an already strong starting staff should give the Tigers one of the better rotations in the AL. However the addition of Martinez may be canceled out by the loss of Kyle Seager and some other bats to free agency. The team lost about as much WAR in FA as they gained in signing Martinez.
On the Farm: OSA ranks the Tigers as the 15th best farm in the league. Somehow Roderick Dalton comes in as only the 38th best prospect according to OSA. Dalton possesses one of the best bats of any PBA prospect, although he will be a first baseman only. The Australian is only in A- ball and some years away, but the Tigers brass should be encouraged by his strong showing in the WBC. The "Tasmanian Tiger" should be a future star in Detroit. The Tigers second best prospect per OSA is RF Mike Fitzgerald who looks ready to join the team this season. SP Danny Garza is another name to look out for this season as he starts the year in AAA.
Best Case Scenario: The Tigers are able to replace the loss of Seager with improvements from young players and a boost from Mike Fitzgerald. The addition of Martinez at the top of the rotation gives the Tigers the best staff in their division which carries them to an 88 win season and a shot at a WC berth.
Worst Case Scenario: The Tigers IF sans star SS Brice Turang drags the team down and a top heavy lineup isn't enough to make up for the improved pitching staff. The Tigers finish with 80 wins and another 4th place finish.
Key Questions:
How do you plan to replace the presence of Seager in the lineup? Will we see RF Mike Fitzgerald this year to help?
You gave Martinez a large but arguably team friendly contract, yet haven't done much else this offseason even though you still have plenty of money. Could we see a late signing to add to the group you have now?
5) Cleveland Indians
2023: 51-111, 5th place AL Central.
Who They Were: The Indians were one of the worst teams in the league, tying with the Angels for the worst record in the AL. The team is still recovering from the disastrous moves of former GM Dave Springgay. They probably should been even worse as they had a 45-117 pythag record. They were last in the AL with an awful 5.47 team ERA, and last in the AL with a team .658 OPS. The pitching staff was sub-replacement level at -4.2 WAR and the batters only put together 4 WAR collectively, so it was a negative WAR club. The only real bright spots on the team were SS Deurys Carrasco and SP Devin Ortiz, who could be the only players still on this team in 3 years.
Offseason Review: The Indians were active on waivers and signed young closer Derwuin Marchan. The team probably hasn't gotten that much better but it's hard to get that much worse. They won't be fixed in one offseason. Indians fans are in for a long rebuild.
On the Farm: It's a strong system ranking 6th in the PBA according to OSA. It is heavy on pitching from the low to high minors. Luis Esparza is the closest of the teams prospects, an AAA arm that made his debut last season and should get a look this year as well. The best prospect in the Indians system is a position player however, #2 overall prospect SS Luis "Four Eyes" Retana. Retana has potential to be a super star SS and is scheduled to start the year in AA Akron with fellow middle IFer Ezequiel Ferrales. Both of them came over in a blockbuster trade with the Reds last offseason and could be a strong middle IF for the club by 2026. If the Indians can find some OFers they will have one of the more complete systems in the league.
Best Case Scenario: A few promising young pitchers keep the team semi respectable and they finish with 55 wins.
Worst Case Scenario: The pythag record monster takes a bite out of the team and they finish with 45 wins.
Key Questions:
You have a long rebuild ahead of you both financially and talent wise, which players on the team this year do you think have a chance to be a part of the next winning Indians team?
What are your expectations for the progression of SS Luis Retana this year? He has been aggressively promoted to AA for this upcoming season despite not hitting much in A ball last year. Do you think he could be ready sooner rather than later?
1) Chicago White Sox
2023: 93-70, 2nd Place AL Central. Lost Wildcard game to the New York Yankees
Who They Were: Despite finishing with the best run differential in the division, the White Sox had to play a game 163 against the Royals to make the playoffs. They then lost a heartbreaking wildcard game to the Yankees. Chicago led the AL in ERA and finished 3rd in OPS. Studs Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi hit for identical averages and put up 7 WAR apiece to lead the lineup, and the Carlos duo of Martinez and Rodon each had 6 WAR seasons to lead the pitching staff.
Offseason Review: The biggest offseason story for the club was the loss of ace Carlos Martinez in free agency. Martinez had been with the White Sox since 2018 and has been one of the leagues best pitchers in that time frame. This continues a trend for the White Sox, as they also lost star SS Dansby Swanson to free agency last year. Blake Snell was brought in from the Rays in a shrewd move to try and replace Martinez, but replacing one of the best starting pitchers in the league will be a tall task. OFer Aristides Aquino was also signed in FA to give the team some depth and replace the loss of Tim Anderson.
On the Farm: OSA ranks the White Sox farm system 17th in the PBA, which seems fair. It is a pitching heavy system as Chicago's three top 100 players are SP. SP Pat French still needs to work on refining his control but the number 1 overall pick in 2022 looks to have an ETA of later this season or 2025. Jeremy Myers and Alex Tietz are a pair of interesting arms in AA as well. The closest impact position player is CF Rodolfo Acevedo who could appear this season as a solid OF option.
Best Case Scenario: Blake Snell is able to help Sox fans stomach the loss of CarMart. The White Sox win 98 games with strong pitching, Devers, and Benintendi. They manage to avoid the Yankees in the playoffs.
Worst Case Scenario: Snell struggles with the transition to a hitters park and the White Sox top heavy roster struggles with the loss of one of its studs. The team wins 90 games and places 3rd in the tough AL Central, which may not be enough to make the playoffs in the AL.
Key Questions:
Are you comfortable with Snell as a CarMart replacement? Who else needs to step up this year to keep the pitching staff as the best in the AL?
Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi are no longer on their cheap pre-arb and arbitration contracts. How does their increased cost affect your roster building strategy?
2) Kansas City Royals
2023: 92-71, 3rd place AL Central.
Who They Were: The Royals were probably the best team in the PBA to not make the playoffs last season. A midseason slump forced the team to have to claw their way to a game 163 against the White Sox which they lost, placing them with a 90 win season but with no playoffs. The Royals finished 2nd in the AL in ERA, but the lineup was middle of the back in OPS. SP Brent Honeywell was the only player who had a true standout season. He came over from the Rays in a blockbuster and led the team with 4.1 WAR. Don't let the lack of high WAR seasons fool you however, the Royals had 10 players break the 2 WAR mark and were one of the more deep and balanced teams in the league.
Offseason Review: The Royals were the offseason. They made 13 trades and were involved in 95% of all trades in the league (that last part may or may not be true). The bullpen was totally revamped and a pair of top 20 position players added to the lineup in C Gary Sanchez and SS J.P. Crawford. The only team to add more WAR to their club were the Pittsburgh Pirates. They didn't lose much to free agency either. However the starting pitching may be a weak point. The Royals rotation is rather old and the team lacks young impact starters.
On the Farm: The Royals farm is ranked #11 overall by OSA. The team has drafted a lot of pitchers in the past few drafts but the jewel of the system is 1B/DH Jorge Vargas who looks like a future middle of the order anchor. However he is only in A ball as are most of the team's best prospects. SP's Nick Boutin, Frank Aguilar, and Roger Airhart are names to keep an eye on who will all start the year in A ball along with Vargas. There isn't much in the high minors in terms of reinforcements for this season so if the Royals need to get better they will have to make yet another trade.
Best Case Scenario: The Royals SP staff holds it together and the team's balance leads to a 98 win season and a division title.
Worst Case Scenario: Brent Honeywell is unable to reproduce his last season and the starting pitching drags the team down to 90 wins and another missed chance at the playoffs.
Key Questions:
Chance Adams was the biggest addition to the starting pitching staff. Do you believe he can replicate his career year in Tampa? Are you confident in your pitching staff to hold it together for the season or can we expect to see more trades?
You added a lot of new relievers to the team. Which one are you most excited about contributing to your bullpen?
3) Minnesota Twins
2023: 95-67, 1st Place AL Central. Defeated the Seattle Mariners 4-2 in the ALDS. Defeated the New York Yankees 4-2 in the ALCS. Defeated the Chicago Cubs 4-2 in the World Series.
Who They Were: The Minnesota Twins are the reigning World Series Champions. Minnesota won the brutal AL Central by 2.5 games and ran the gauntlet in the postseason. The lineup was prolific. They led the AL in runs scored with every regular starter except for their SS having a wRC+ of at least 114. Rule V pick 2B Michael Busch led the team with 4.3 WAR and made the all star game. Trade additions C Buster Posey and 3B Yoan Moncada had fantastic abbreviated seasons with the team. Despite only having 3 stamina SP Osiris German was able to put up 3.7 WAR in 159.1 IP thanks to his 11.6 K/9 rate. In short everything that could go right for the Twins did.
Offseason Review: As a small market, Minnesota could not retain all of the rentals who were brought on to help win the World Series. Moncada and Posey left in free agency, as did Jared Eichoff who although not a big factor in postseason play, was a solid starter for the team in the regular season. Slugger Bryan Martelo was dealt to the Braves for pitching and catching help as the Twins made a move from a position of strength to shore up a position of weakness. The most exciting part of this offseason for Twins fans will be looking forward to a full season of top prospect CF Wessel Russchen. the Dutch sensation is an elite prospect, and one of the more toolsy in the league. He should be the Twins CFer for years to come, adding a big piece to an already deep OF.
On the Farm: OSA has the Twins as the number 10 farm in the game, although that is largely held up by Russchen. Besides Russchen (who is already in the majors) the Twins have just two top 100 prospects in SP Jeff Burton and 2B Steve Mulvey. Burton is only in A ball and Mulvey may find himself blocked by Michael Busch. SP Pat Cypert is a hard throwing upper minors arm to look out for, but aside from him and Russchen don't expect too much from the Twins farm system to make an impact this season.
Best Case Scenario: The Twins catching additions are able to make up for the loss of Posey, and players like Allen Cordoba and Ricardo De La Torre make up for the loss of Moncada at 3rd base. Wessel Russchen emerges as one of the best players in the PBA. The Twins win the division for a 2nd time with 95 wins and are able to secure a chance to defend their title.
Worst Case Scenario: The loss of the rentals/11.9 WAR over the offseason is enough to place the Twins at 3rd in the division. Improvements and additions of young players like Russchen and Cypert isn't enough to close the gap in one of the toughest divisions in the PBA. The Twins win 88 games and find themselves missing the postseason.
Key Questions:
Luis Robert is an incredibly talented player who has struggled to stay healthy. What are you expectations for him this season?
You dealt away some prospects for the stretch run last year and it worked out perfectly. Do you think there is enough left in the system to make similar moves if need be?
4) Detroit Tigers
2023: 83-79, 4th place AL Central.
Who They Were: The Tigers were a middle of the pack team, finishing 10th in the AL in ERA, and 7th in OPS. OFers Jacob Pearson and Amari Maggette broke out in their 2nd full seasons. Along with late FA signing 3B Kyle Seager they provided the team with 86 homers at the heart of the lineup. The Tigers pitching staff had a pair of 4 WAR starters between Griffin Canning and Gregory Reinoso. It was a team that may have been able to challenge for the playoffs in almost any other division.
Offseason Review: So far this offseason the Tigers have only added two players. P Ricardo Pinto was an unremarkable waiver claim but the other player is Carlos Martinez one of the best pitchers in the PBA. Adding Martinez to an already strong starting staff should give the Tigers one of the better rotations in the AL. However the addition of Martinez may be canceled out by the loss of Kyle Seager and some other bats to free agency. The team lost about as much WAR in FA as they gained in signing Martinez.
On the Farm: OSA ranks the Tigers as the 15th best farm in the league. Somehow Roderick Dalton comes in as only the 38th best prospect according to OSA. Dalton possesses one of the best bats of any PBA prospect, although he will be a first baseman only. The Australian is only in A- ball and some years away, but the Tigers brass should be encouraged by his strong showing in the WBC. The "Tasmanian Tiger" should be a future star in Detroit. The Tigers second best prospect per OSA is RF Mike Fitzgerald who looks ready to join the team this season. SP Danny Garza is another name to look out for this season as he starts the year in AAA.
Best Case Scenario: The Tigers are able to replace the loss of Seager with improvements from young players and a boost from Mike Fitzgerald. The addition of Martinez at the top of the rotation gives the Tigers the best staff in their division which carries them to an 88 win season and a shot at a WC berth.
Worst Case Scenario: The Tigers IF sans star SS Brice Turang drags the team down and a top heavy lineup isn't enough to make up for the improved pitching staff. The Tigers finish with 80 wins and another 4th place finish.
Key Questions:
How do you plan to replace the presence of Seager in the lineup? Will we see RF Mike Fitzgerald this year to help?
You gave Martinez a large but arguably team friendly contract, yet haven't done much else this offseason even though you still have plenty of money. Could we see a late signing to add to the group you have now?
5) Cleveland Indians
2023: 51-111, 5th place AL Central.
Who They Were: The Indians were one of the worst teams in the league, tying with the Angels for the worst record in the AL. The team is still recovering from the disastrous moves of former GM Dave Springgay. They probably should been even worse as they had a 45-117 pythag record. They were last in the AL with an awful 5.47 team ERA, and last in the AL with a team .658 OPS. The pitching staff was sub-replacement level at -4.2 WAR and the batters only put together 4 WAR collectively, so it was a negative WAR club. The only real bright spots on the team were SS Deurys Carrasco and SP Devin Ortiz, who could be the only players still on this team in 3 years.
Offseason Review: The Indians were active on waivers and signed young closer Derwuin Marchan. The team probably hasn't gotten that much better but it's hard to get that much worse. They won't be fixed in one offseason. Indians fans are in for a long rebuild.
On the Farm: It's a strong system ranking 6th in the PBA according to OSA. It is heavy on pitching from the low to high minors. Luis Esparza is the closest of the teams prospects, an AAA arm that made his debut last season and should get a look this year as well. The best prospect in the Indians system is a position player however, #2 overall prospect SS Luis "Four Eyes" Retana. Retana has potential to be a super star SS and is scheduled to start the year in AA Akron with fellow middle IFer Ezequiel Ferrales. Both of them came over in a blockbuster trade with the Reds last offseason and could be a strong middle IF for the club by 2026. If the Indians can find some OFers they will have one of the more complete systems in the league.
Best Case Scenario: A few promising young pitchers keep the team semi respectable and they finish with 55 wins.
Worst Case Scenario: The pythag record monster takes a bite out of the team and they finish with 45 wins.
Key Questions:
You have a long rebuild ahead of you both financially and talent wise, which players on the team this year do you think have a chance to be a part of the next winning Indians team?
What are your expectations for the progression of SS Luis Retana this year? He has been aggressively promoted to AA for this upcoming season despite not hitting much in A ball last year. Do you think he could be ready sooner rather than later?
. Add to that my up and coming SP specs and I'm happy with how things are shaping up. We will also bump our scouting and dev budget back up so maybe we'd have 25-35M free to spend.