Post by Commissioner Erick on Oct 16, 2020 11:24:10 GMT -5
Atlanta Braves (74-70) @ Philadelphia Phillies (86-57)
ATL: Shohei Otani (5-8, 5.14)
PHI: Madison Bumgarner (16-6, 4.24)
By all appreciable measures, this Philadelphia Phillies season looks like a success. A playoff lock, Philadelphia is on pace for a high-90s win season. The team has star power, executes the fundamentals well—the club has the fewest errors in the league—and has the talent and balance to win a championship.
However, in a polarized league, the Phillies projected 97 wins may relegate them to a Wild Card Game where a single loss will result in a playoff exit. Missed opportunities haunt the club—Philadelphia recently lost three one-run games in a row in losing four of seven to the Reds and Mets—and their main trio of offensive stars are each having the worst seasons of their recent careers. That trio, Seth Beer, Mickey Moniak, and Darick Hall, as well as pitching ace Franklyn Kilome, are all due healthy raises in arbitration this year as Philadelphia’s time of saving salary costs for their stars are now behind them. They’ll have to spend a lot of money to remain elite.
As a result, the team now sits four games behind a Nationals squad with stars that shine so bright, only those on the outer reaches of the solar system can glance in their direction. The Nationals team is older and expensive, but several young superstar stars give the team a future as well.
The Philadelphia Phillies are a championship-caliber juggernaut. The Philadelphia Phillies are a team facing precarity.
This makes contests against a solid Atlanta Braves team so important. There isn’t margin for error if Philadelphia wants to avoid the Wild Card, making their Game of the Week appearance against Atlanta so important. The Phillies have a losing record on the year against Atlanta, and is 2-7 in their last nine games against them. The Braves have held the Phillies’ potent offense to four runs or fewer in five of their past six games, including two shutouts.
That’s bad news for an offense that is operating well below peak efficiency. Darick Hall has hit under .200 since May, and his season average is now .199. Seth Beer is hitting for more power than ever, but after leading the league in average and on-base-percentage the past two seasons, he’s hitting a pedestrian .260 with a strong but unspectacular .391 OBP. Mickey Moniak is following up a .299/.366/.517 campaign with a .276/.353/.480 season. These are still strong seasons, but compared to a deep all-star lineup in Washington, it’s just a bit short.
The supporting cast for Philadelphia has been solid, and Maikel Franco is coming off the IL to provide reinforcements. That will help. Still, the Phillies will need their stars to play like stars against a fantastic pitching club in Atlanta.
The Braves are tied for third in fewest runs allowed, spurred by a good defense and a great bullpen. Shohei Otani has struggled in his second full season in the PBA, but he’s held his own in a pair of starts against Philadelphia this year, allowing three runs both times. His splitter continues to give him a chance against the Phillies’ lefties. In fact, Hall is 1-15 lifetime off him, Beer is 3-14 with a homer, and Moniak is 2-10. If those numbers hold, even if Otani continues his wild season and walks a few hitters, the Phillies are unlikely to truly cash in.
Once Atlanta gets to the bullpen, they’re well poised to handle Philadelphia with four left-handed relievers. Holden Christian has had a nice sophomore season for the Braves, with a 2.41 ERA backed up by strong peripherals despite only working 41 innings. There’s a chance he starts in the future, but has been effective out of the pen. Adam Liberatore had a strong career as a member of some nasty Dodgers bullpens, but his second act as a late-30’s reliever in Atlanta has been dominant. He had a 1.37 ERA in his first season with the Braves last year, and has a 1.83 mark this year. He has at least 2.0 WAR three of the last four years and has become one of the best non-closing relievers in baseball.
Speaking of guys in their late 30s, 39-year-old Tony Watson has continued a fine career with a fantastic second year in Atlanta. After saving 10 games in his first year with the Braves last year, he has a 2.86 ERA this year. More of a generalist over his career, this year he’s done his best work against same-sided hitters, holding them to a .498 OPS. Finally, there’s Trevor Rogers. While Rogers has the highest ERA of all Atlanta relievers at 3.46, six of the 16 earned runs he’s allowed this year have come on two swings by Mike Trout. He’s been excellent when not facing Washington, and has held lefties to a .514 OPS this year.
Against a lefty-dominant Phillies team, this unit spells trouble for Philadelphia’s offense.
Of course, Atlanta is only 12th in runs scored as despite the addition of Wilmer Flores adding more power, Atlanta still lacks dynamic bats. Jimmy McCabe looks like a dynamic slugger and was a great trade acquisition. Gator Jacobsen and Mikey Polanski look like strong second-division starters. However, with Otani struggling at the plate, and too many glove-first hitters hitting under .200, it’s been tough for Atlanta to move the sticks on offense. Some prospects have reached the majors and are getting an extended look for the future, but the offense still looks underwhelming.
That’s bad news going up against 16-win Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner doesn’t throw as hard as he used to, and his velocity difference between his changeup and fastball is almost negligible, making him a tough proposition against right-handers. Despite his RV parties though, he still has a ton of focus and toughness on the mound and his command keeps him from being hit hard. It’ll be fun to watch him work against such a young Braves lineup.
Questions for the GMs:
For Aaron Dunham, you’ve given a few of your prospects extended looks in the second half. Have any of them forced your hand into being starters for 2025?
There are some special left-handed hitters in the NL East, namely on Philadelphia. Was that a factor in acquiring such good left-handed relievers the past two seasons?
Speaking of your lefties, Otani is someone who has had success against Philadelphia’s best hitters this year and has a lot of stamina. Would you rather see him go deep, or have your club get to the bullpen as fast as possible?
For Matt Grubs, it’s likely that Maikel Franco comes off the IL today. Will he be reinserted into the lineup, and if so, whose spot will he take?
Dan Altivilla has been brutal in the second half, but his numbers on the year are largely better than Dave Simon. Who would you rather see get the ball in a big spot?
Madison Bumgarner is having his best year as a Phillie in terms of ERA, though scouts agree that his stuff is on the decline. He’s a Free Agent next year. Obviously, a lot depends on details, but with your club getting more expensive, will you look to bring him back?
TRIVIA: Who is the only Brave to win a Platinum Stick Award?
ATL: Shohei Otani (5-8, 5.14)
PHI: Madison Bumgarner (16-6, 4.24)
By all appreciable measures, this Philadelphia Phillies season looks like a success. A playoff lock, Philadelphia is on pace for a high-90s win season. The team has star power, executes the fundamentals well—the club has the fewest errors in the league—and has the talent and balance to win a championship.
However, in a polarized league, the Phillies projected 97 wins may relegate them to a Wild Card Game where a single loss will result in a playoff exit. Missed opportunities haunt the club—Philadelphia recently lost three one-run games in a row in losing four of seven to the Reds and Mets—and their main trio of offensive stars are each having the worst seasons of their recent careers. That trio, Seth Beer, Mickey Moniak, and Darick Hall, as well as pitching ace Franklyn Kilome, are all due healthy raises in arbitration this year as Philadelphia’s time of saving salary costs for their stars are now behind them. They’ll have to spend a lot of money to remain elite.
As a result, the team now sits four games behind a Nationals squad with stars that shine so bright, only those on the outer reaches of the solar system can glance in their direction. The Nationals team is older and expensive, but several young superstar stars give the team a future as well.
The Philadelphia Phillies are a championship-caliber juggernaut. The Philadelphia Phillies are a team facing precarity.
This makes contests against a solid Atlanta Braves team so important. There isn’t margin for error if Philadelphia wants to avoid the Wild Card, making their Game of the Week appearance against Atlanta so important. The Phillies have a losing record on the year against Atlanta, and is 2-7 in their last nine games against them. The Braves have held the Phillies’ potent offense to four runs or fewer in five of their past six games, including two shutouts.
That’s bad news for an offense that is operating well below peak efficiency. Darick Hall has hit under .200 since May, and his season average is now .199. Seth Beer is hitting for more power than ever, but after leading the league in average and on-base-percentage the past two seasons, he’s hitting a pedestrian .260 with a strong but unspectacular .391 OBP. Mickey Moniak is following up a .299/.366/.517 campaign with a .276/.353/.480 season. These are still strong seasons, but compared to a deep all-star lineup in Washington, it’s just a bit short.
The supporting cast for Philadelphia has been solid, and Maikel Franco is coming off the IL to provide reinforcements. That will help. Still, the Phillies will need their stars to play like stars against a fantastic pitching club in Atlanta.
The Braves are tied for third in fewest runs allowed, spurred by a good defense and a great bullpen. Shohei Otani has struggled in his second full season in the PBA, but he’s held his own in a pair of starts against Philadelphia this year, allowing three runs both times. His splitter continues to give him a chance against the Phillies’ lefties. In fact, Hall is 1-15 lifetime off him, Beer is 3-14 with a homer, and Moniak is 2-10. If those numbers hold, even if Otani continues his wild season and walks a few hitters, the Phillies are unlikely to truly cash in.
Once Atlanta gets to the bullpen, they’re well poised to handle Philadelphia with four left-handed relievers. Holden Christian has had a nice sophomore season for the Braves, with a 2.41 ERA backed up by strong peripherals despite only working 41 innings. There’s a chance he starts in the future, but has been effective out of the pen. Adam Liberatore had a strong career as a member of some nasty Dodgers bullpens, but his second act as a late-30’s reliever in Atlanta has been dominant. He had a 1.37 ERA in his first season with the Braves last year, and has a 1.83 mark this year. He has at least 2.0 WAR three of the last four years and has become one of the best non-closing relievers in baseball.
Speaking of guys in their late 30s, 39-year-old Tony Watson has continued a fine career with a fantastic second year in Atlanta. After saving 10 games in his first year with the Braves last year, he has a 2.86 ERA this year. More of a generalist over his career, this year he’s done his best work against same-sided hitters, holding them to a .498 OPS. Finally, there’s Trevor Rogers. While Rogers has the highest ERA of all Atlanta relievers at 3.46, six of the 16 earned runs he’s allowed this year have come on two swings by Mike Trout. He’s been excellent when not facing Washington, and has held lefties to a .514 OPS this year.
Against a lefty-dominant Phillies team, this unit spells trouble for Philadelphia’s offense.
Of course, Atlanta is only 12th in runs scored as despite the addition of Wilmer Flores adding more power, Atlanta still lacks dynamic bats. Jimmy McCabe looks like a dynamic slugger and was a great trade acquisition. Gator Jacobsen and Mikey Polanski look like strong second-division starters. However, with Otani struggling at the plate, and too many glove-first hitters hitting under .200, it’s been tough for Atlanta to move the sticks on offense. Some prospects have reached the majors and are getting an extended look for the future, but the offense still looks underwhelming.
That’s bad news going up against 16-win Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner doesn’t throw as hard as he used to, and his velocity difference between his changeup and fastball is almost negligible, making him a tough proposition against right-handers. Despite his RV parties though, he still has a ton of focus and toughness on the mound and his command keeps him from being hit hard. It’ll be fun to watch him work against such a young Braves lineup.
Questions for the GMs:
For Aaron Dunham, you’ve given a few of your prospects extended looks in the second half. Have any of them forced your hand into being starters for 2025?
There are some special left-handed hitters in the NL East, namely on Philadelphia. Was that a factor in acquiring such good left-handed relievers the past two seasons?
Speaking of your lefties, Otani is someone who has had success against Philadelphia’s best hitters this year and has a lot of stamina. Would you rather see him go deep, or have your club get to the bullpen as fast as possible?
For Matt Grubs, it’s likely that Maikel Franco comes off the IL today. Will he be reinserted into the lineup, and if so, whose spot will he take?
Dan Altivilla has been brutal in the second half, but his numbers on the year are largely better than Dave Simon. Who would you rather see get the ball in a big spot?
Madison Bumgarner is having his best year as a Phillie in terms of ERA, though scouts agree that his stuff is on the decline. He’s a Free Agent next year. Obviously, a lot depends on details, but with your club getting more expensive, will you look to bring him back?
TRIVIA: Who is the only Brave to win a Platinum Stick Award?
