Post by Commissioner Erick on Oct 23, 2020 18:55:20 GMT -5
Philadelphia Phillies (96-59) @ Washington Nationals (94-61)
PHI: Adam Conley (8-4, 4.30)
WAS: Franklin E. Perez (14-6, 3.99)
Despite Washington and Philadelphia battling it out the entire season, the National League East will come down to the final week. Seven games remain to decide who gets a free pass to the NLDS, and who will be stuck in a win-or-go-home contest likely against the San Francisco Giants.
This makes tonight’s Game of the Week matchup between the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies a crucial one with enormous stakes.
The stakes are highest for the Washington Nationals who sit two-games back. If they lose, they’ll need to win three in a row against the Phillies to remain in contention for the division. In different circumstances, they could salvage a split and look for help the final series of the year, but with three games against the Miami Marlins remaining, it’s unlikely the Nationals will see the Phillies lose at least twice to end the season.
The Nationals have won the NL East twice and won a World Series one of those years. They’ve made the Wild Card Game three times, and have won a single game in the NLDS those three seasons combined. History has been kinder to them when they’ve won their division. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has lost its only Wild Card Game appearance, but has won a playoff series every time they’ve won their division. Heck, even the first PBA champion, the New York Mets, did so as a National League East winner. History favors those who wave a National League East pennant, not those who finish second place in its division.
Washington will attempt to make up ground on the Phillies despite its best pitcher, the spectacular Eric Pena, not scheduled to work this series. They’ll send Frankln E. Perez to the mound to shut down the Phillies. Perez hasn’t been as good this year as years past simply because of the long ball. The 31 home runs he’s allowed this year are a career high and have helped lift his ERA to a 3.99 mark, his highest in three years. The Phillies are second in the league in home runs so this is not a good sign for Washington.
Unlike years past, Washington has a strong bullpen in cast Perez struggles. Only 28th-man Marrick Crouse and aging Andrew Miller have an ERA in the 4s for the team as Nick Burdi, Jon Carter, and Omar Lara have added some dynamism to what has previously been an underwhelming unit. However, Miller is the only arm that throws from the left side. Against a fantastic left-handed lineup, that is also an ill-omen for Washington.
Philadelphia, however, has been a thing rare for them—a whole less than its sum. Only sixth in runs despite being second in OPS, Philadelphia hasn’t converted power to production as well as in years past. Virtually all key players are getting on base at a worse clip than seasons past, leading to a lot of extra base hits with nobody on base.
Philadelphia tried to change that by tweaking their lineup last sim. Andres Gimenez was moved higher in the lineup and Darick Hall moved down. The team scored seven runs in five of six games, averaging 8.8 runs as a result. In fact, if not for a bullpen meltdown on Saturday, the new lineup would have resulted in a perfect week. Philadelphia’s offense, had been playing well before the lineup change of course, averaging 53 runs over seven games prior, a 7.6 run-per-game average, but the new configuration makes a lot of sense.
This spells trouble for Washington, but Philadelphia may have trouble stopping runs from scoring in their own right. Adam Conley’s made two starts against the Nationals this year. One was a solid outing at home where he allowed three runs in 6 innings. However, the other was in Washington, the site of tonight’s game, and Conley had his worst game of the year, issuing eight runs on 10 hits in 3 innings. Conley is the pitcher Bryce Harper has hit the most home runs off of in his career. Mike Trout is hitting .300 off Conley. Victor Robles is hitting .345, with by far the most hits of his career coming off Conley. Juan Soto has the most hits of his career coming against Conley. Even Adam Flores is hitting .467 against the lefty.
The bottom of Washington’s lineup hasn’t touched him, but it’ll be a high-wire act for Conley to face the top six batters in the Washington lineup tonight.
There’s also the fact that Philadelphia’s bullpen has not performed well down the stretch. Dan Altavilla has had an ERA of 5.40 or higher in three of the past four months and after his first four decisions were wins, he’s gone 2-9 the past four months. Dave Simon, however, has a 6.35 ERA in September, Ryan Buchter has a 9.95 mark, and Ryan Helsley has a 7.20 mark. Even if Conley has a good start, Matt Grubs can’t be confident late.
That would make a strong game from the Phillies bullpen so important. If the Phillies can get the job done late in the game, they’ll get the job done late in the year and hold off Washington for the division.
Questions for the GMs:
For Matt Grubs, Conley has a lot of history against Washington most of it rough. Some of Washington’s stats against him are the product of Conley working in the NL East forever, but how confident are you in him taking on that lineup?
Bobby Witt Jr. has a pair of hits in four straight games. Has his hot stretch convinced you that he’s your starting Third Baseman to close the year, full stop?
How has the new lineup seemed to you this past week?
For Jake Pennel, why did you reacquire Blake Treinen after he struggled so much for you last year?
He’s always overshadowed, but how important is Victor Robles to the success of your team?
Philadelphia has changed its lineup around. How do you want Perez to attack it?
TRIVIA: Which player has the most WAR in a single season?
PHI: Adam Conley (8-4, 4.30)
WAS: Franklin E. Perez (14-6, 3.99)
Despite Washington and Philadelphia battling it out the entire season, the National League East will come down to the final week. Seven games remain to decide who gets a free pass to the NLDS, and who will be stuck in a win-or-go-home contest likely against the San Francisco Giants.
This makes tonight’s Game of the Week matchup between the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies a crucial one with enormous stakes.
The stakes are highest for the Washington Nationals who sit two-games back. If they lose, they’ll need to win three in a row against the Phillies to remain in contention for the division. In different circumstances, they could salvage a split and look for help the final series of the year, but with three games against the Miami Marlins remaining, it’s unlikely the Nationals will see the Phillies lose at least twice to end the season.
The Nationals have won the NL East twice and won a World Series one of those years. They’ve made the Wild Card Game three times, and have won a single game in the NLDS those three seasons combined. History has been kinder to them when they’ve won their division. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has lost its only Wild Card Game appearance, but has won a playoff series every time they’ve won their division. Heck, even the first PBA champion, the New York Mets, did so as a National League East winner. History favors those who wave a National League East pennant, not those who finish second place in its division.
Washington will attempt to make up ground on the Phillies despite its best pitcher, the spectacular Eric Pena, not scheduled to work this series. They’ll send Frankln E. Perez to the mound to shut down the Phillies. Perez hasn’t been as good this year as years past simply because of the long ball. The 31 home runs he’s allowed this year are a career high and have helped lift his ERA to a 3.99 mark, his highest in three years. The Phillies are second in the league in home runs so this is not a good sign for Washington.
Unlike years past, Washington has a strong bullpen in cast Perez struggles. Only 28th-man Marrick Crouse and aging Andrew Miller have an ERA in the 4s for the team as Nick Burdi, Jon Carter, and Omar Lara have added some dynamism to what has previously been an underwhelming unit. However, Miller is the only arm that throws from the left side. Against a fantastic left-handed lineup, that is also an ill-omen for Washington.
Philadelphia, however, has been a thing rare for them—a whole less than its sum. Only sixth in runs despite being second in OPS, Philadelphia hasn’t converted power to production as well as in years past. Virtually all key players are getting on base at a worse clip than seasons past, leading to a lot of extra base hits with nobody on base.
Philadelphia tried to change that by tweaking their lineup last sim. Andres Gimenez was moved higher in the lineup and Darick Hall moved down. The team scored seven runs in five of six games, averaging 8.8 runs as a result. In fact, if not for a bullpen meltdown on Saturday, the new lineup would have resulted in a perfect week. Philadelphia’s offense, had been playing well before the lineup change of course, averaging 53 runs over seven games prior, a 7.6 run-per-game average, but the new configuration makes a lot of sense.
This spells trouble for Washington, but Philadelphia may have trouble stopping runs from scoring in their own right. Adam Conley’s made two starts against the Nationals this year. One was a solid outing at home where he allowed three runs in 6 innings. However, the other was in Washington, the site of tonight’s game, and Conley had his worst game of the year, issuing eight runs on 10 hits in 3 innings. Conley is the pitcher Bryce Harper has hit the most home runs off of in his career. Mike Trout is hitting .300 off Conley. Victor Robles is hitting .345, with by far the most hits of his career coming off Conley. Juan Soto has the most hits of his career coming against Conley. Even Adam Flores is hitting .467 against the lefty.
The bottom of Washington’s lineup hasn’t touched him, but it’ll be a high-wire act for Conley to face the top six batters in the Washington lineup tonight.
There’s also the fact that Philadelphia’s bullpen has not performed well down the stretch. Dan Altavilla has had an ERA of 5.40 or higher in three of the past four months and after his first four decisions were wins, he’s gone 2-9 the past four months. Dave Simon, however, has a 6.35 ERA in September, Ryan Buchter has a 9.95 mark, and Ryan Helsley has a 7.20 mark. Even if Conley has a good start, Matt Grubs can’t be confident late.
That would make a strong game from the Phillies bullpen so important. If the Phillies can get the job done late in the game, they’ll get the job done late in the year and hold off Washington for the division.
Questions for the GMs:
For Matt Grubs, Conley has a lot of history against Washington most of it rough. Some of Washington’s stats against him are the product of Conley working in the NL East forever, but how confident are you in him taking on that lineup?
Bobby Witt Jr. has a pair of hits in four straight games. Has his hot stretch convinced you that he’s your starting Third Baseman to close the year, full stop?
How has the new lineup seemed to you this past week?
For Jake Pennel, why did you reacquire Blake Treinen after he struggled so much for you last year?
He’s always overshadowed, but how important is Victor Robles to the success of your team?
Philadelphia has changed its lineup around. How do you want Perez to attack it?
TRIVIA: Which player has the most WAR in a single season?
